2016 Oscars Predictions: Who Will Be Nominated?

For the past two weeks or so, I've been going over what I think are the best movies and performances of the year (and some movies that I don't think were as good). But now that my personal, biased opinions are out of the way, it's time to talk about The Oscars. My Oscars coverage is, from what I've gathered from talking to my readers, the highlight of this blog, and I've been diligently preparing all year. I've scoured the reviews and the various preceding awards ceremonies to provide a comprehensive analysis of what will be nominated for the Oscars (announced this coming Thursday). And I'm happy to announce that...

I have no fucking clue what the nominations are going to be.

This year has been absolutely insane, and this is going to be one of the most unpredictable Oscars ceremonies in history. Lots of titles everyone assumed would be major players (like Joy, The Danish Girl, ans Steve Jobs) are now on fairly shaky ground. And some movies that people saw as long shots have become genuine contenders (like The Big Short and Mad Max: Fury Road and Straight Outta Compton). And then there are movies that everyone thought would do well, and HAVE done well, but haven't really broken out from the rest of the pack to take frontrunner status (like Brooklyn and The Revenant and Bridge of Spies) and might still fall short. And then we have to keep in mind that every year there's a few movies that do really well at the precursor awards but fail to make a splash at the Oscars (last year, a notable title was Gone Girl which was considered a potential heavyweight but only received one nomination) and movies that the Academy seems to favor far more than anyone anticipated (last year it was American Sniper, which was seen as a long shot but six nominations including one for Best Picture). So, we take an especially weird year on the awards circuit, and combine it with an awards ceremony known for unpredictable nominations, and I feel like I'm taking a stab in the dark.

So, below, are my predictions for the 2016 Oscars nominations. And while I stand by all of these predictions, I have a feeling I'm going to be even more wrong than normal. Because...who knows what the Academy is thinking ever.

I do have two disclaimers before I go on. First, I kind of already talked about this in the beginning of this post, but these predictions have nothing to do with my own opinions. There are plenty of movies that I think deserve to be on this list which I've left off because they have no chance, and there are plenty of movies that I think are awful--movies that are BIG on hype but SHORT on actual quality--that you will see multiple times here. If you want to know who I would have nominated if I'd had my druthers, check out my picks for the First Annual Miles Awards.

My second disclaimer is about the Oscars themselves, because I always feel the need to justify why I take this so seriously. The Oscars are incredibly problematic. They're incredibly politicized, and have a poor track record when it comes to actually picking the best work in any given year. But the reason I love the Oscars is because it is, for better or for worse, the biggest night in movies. It's a time to celebrate achievement in film, and even if I often disagree with who is celebrated, the fact that they exist is an important thing to me. Especially at a time when the arts continue to not be seen as a priority.

Okay, here we go! My predictions in every single category for the Oscar nominations!!! We'll see how badly I do on Thursday.

Best Picture:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) Spotlight

Probably going to be nominated:

2) Carol

3) The Big Short

4) The Martian
5) Brooklyn

6) Mad Max: Fury
7) Bridge of Spies
8) Room 

9) The Revenant

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

10) The Hateful Eight

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

Beasts of No Nation

Straight Outta Compton

Trumbo

Steve Jobs

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Inside Out

Has “upset” potential:

Creed

Anomalisa

Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which some feel might be a last minute contender in the Best Picture race. I'm still not convinced, though.

Who knows? Seriously who knows. This category is such a complete mess--even Star Wars: The Force Awakens is seen as a last minute contender now. The only movie guaranteed a nomination right now is Spotlight, which is seen as the early frontrunner to win. We'll see if it can actually hold onto that title, but for now, it'll definitely be nominated. I actually think that if Mad Max: Fury Road does get a nomination, it has a good chance of winning, as it's certainly a film with an incredibly passionate fanbase, which has arguably been doing just as well as Spotlight on the pre-Oscars awards circuit. After that, there are at least sixteen movies which could all make a case for being potential nominees. Because of that, several movies which one would think would be obvious Oscar nominees are guaranteed to be excluded, which could lead to upsets. I feel like Anomalisa has been well-received enough to be a dark horse nominee, and although Creed's initial buzz hasn't translated to too many pre-Oscar awards, it shouldn't be placed completely out of the running. My biggest gamble here is placing The Hateful Eight so high, but the Academy has loved Quentin Tarantino recently, so I think that it has a chance to be more of an Oscar darling than many are predicting. I've also placed The Revenant fairly low--the reception to it has been far more tepid than most would have thought, and it might be the rare film that does well in the other categories but doesn't have the support for a Best Picture nomination (like Foxcatcher last year). And its recent Golden Globes dominance doesn't mean too much. The Golden Globes are chosen by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and it consists of only 95 members, which is hardly indicative of the much larger Academy. In fact, as a rule, the Golden Globes are hardly what anyone would call a reliable indicator for the Oscars.

Best Director:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) Ridley Scott—The Martian

Probably going to be nominated:

2) George Miller—Mad Max: Fury Road

3) Tom McCarthy—Spotlight

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

4) Todd Haynes—Carol
5) Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu—The Revenant

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

Steven Spielberg—Bridge of Spies

Adam McKay—The Big Short

Quentin Tarantino—The Hateful Eight

Danny Boyle—Steve Jobs

Has “upset” potential:

Lenny Abrahamson—Room

John Crowley—Brooklyn

Cary Joji Fukunaga—Beasts of No Nation

You know it's a competitive year when even Steven Spielberg (seen here directing Bridge of Spies) can't guarantee a nomination.

Best director often goes hand in hand with Best Picture. With the exception of Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher last year, every film nominated for Best Director has also been nominated for Best Picture ever since the number of nominees was expanded. And so, just as the Best Picture category is unpredictable, so is the Best Director category, to the point that the only person I think will definitely get a nomination is Ridley Scott for The Martian. George Miller was once seen as a dark horse, but his clear artistic vision and Fury Road's increasing momentum, he's likely to be here, provided the older-skewing Academy doesn't shut the movie out due to its genre. Only four movies in history have ever won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination, so ordinarily the director of the presumed Best Picture winner is a shoo-in, but in this stacked year, McCarthy's relatively understated direction makes far less of a statement than many other films, and he might be bested by some bigger names, such as Todd Haynes for Carol. Then we have Academy favorite heavy-hitters like Steven Spielberg, Quentin Tarantino, and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, not to mention wild card Adam McKay, and it feels like there are simply not enough spots to go around. Although this category might get a little bit clearer once the Directors Guild Award nominations are announced on Tuesday.

This is potentially the most important category in terms of predicting winners--the five films nominated here are the ones that are going to be the most favored by the Academy, and the ones with the best chance of winning. A film's place in this category will certify it as a frontrunner.

Best Actor:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) Leonardo DiCaprio—The Revenant

Probably going to be nominated:

2) Michael Fassbender—Steve Jobs

3) Matt Damon—The Martian

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

4) Bryan Cranston—Trumbo
5) Eddie Redmayne—The Danish Girl

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

Johnny Depp—Black Mass

Has “upset” potential:

Samuel L. Jackson—The Hateful Eight

Michael Keaton--Spotlight
Michael B. Jordan—Creed

Geza Rohrig—Son of Saul

If Leonardo DiCaprio had been cast in The Martian instead of Matt Damon, he probably would have insisted on growing potatoes with his own waste and actually filming on Mars.

This is a six-actor race, for only five spots. Of the six, Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael Fassbender, and Matt Damon seem like the three locks, with Eddie Redmayne, Bryan Cranston, and Johnny Depp fighting for the last two spots. I used to have Depp ahead of both Redmayne and Cranston, but he's actually missed out on a nomination in a few other crucial awards, and also Black Mass as a whole has failed to create buzz in any other categories, so for these reasons, I've had to select him as the one who will be left out, but I do think he's still very much in the running. I do keep thinking of last year, though, when we thought it was a six person race, where David Oyelowo and Jake Gyllenhaal were competing for the final spot...only for neither of them to get it and Bradley Cooper to come out of nowhere and score a nomination. that might very well happen again.

Best Actress:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) Brie Larson—Room

2) Cate Blanchett—Carol

3) Saoirse Ronan—Brooklyn

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

4) Charlotte Rampling—45 Years

5) Charlize Theron—Mad Max: Fury Road

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

1) Jennifer Lawrence—Joy

2) Helen Mirren—Woman in Gold

3) Carey Mulligan—Suffragette

Has “upset” potential:

Lily Tomlin—Grandma

Charlotte Rampling, who is a potential Oscar nominee for her understated work in 45 Years.

Okay, so these are by far my weirdest predictions, and my biggest gamble. The Best Actress category has three definite bets, with Brie Larson, Cate Blanchett, and Saoirse Ronan all but guaranteed a nomination. But from there, it's anyone's guess. Carey Mulligan was an early favorite, but then both she and Suffragette have failed to remain in the conversation. And Helen Mirren has received several nominations for her work in the almost impressively unmemorable Woman in Gold, no doubt honoring her career more than this particular performance. A wild card is Charlotte Rampling, whose chances seem to vary day to day, but I think that her work in 45 Years is the type that the Academy responds to, so I've tentatively placed her with Larson, Blanchett, and Ronan in the winners circle. That leaves one more spot, which many give to Jennifer Lawrence in Joy, and up until the time I was writing this I would have put her there too. But then I thought about it more and I could all too easily see Lawrence being excluded as an upset. After all, she failed to score a SAG nomination, and the response to the film as a whole has been decidedly underwhelming. With Fury Road looking like it could show surprising Oscars dominance, there might just be some love shown to Charlize Theron. Fury Road certainly has more support than Joy does as a whole. My pick here is definitely odd, and not necessarily a smart one to make. If I had money on the line, I'd probably go with Lawrence over both Theron or Rampling, but I'm taking a risk based on instinct. If I'm right, I'll look like a wizard! If I'm wrong, I'll remain an idiot.

Best Supporting Actor:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) Mark Rylance—Bridge of Spies

2) Sylvester Stallone—Creed

3) Idris Elba—Beasts of No Nation

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

4) Jacob Tremblay—Room

5) Michael Shannon—99 Homes

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

Christian Bale—The Big Short

Paul Dano—Love & Mercy

Tom Hardy—The Revenant

Mark Ruffalo—Spotlight

Has “upset” potential:

Kurt Russell—The Hateful Eight

Michael Shannon, who has been doing surprisingly well on the awards circuit for his chilling performance in 99 Homes.

Last year, this category was so lightweight that Robert Duvall managed to score a nomination for The Judge. But this year, I think it's the most competitive of the acting categories, with at least nine very serious contenders. Of these nine, Mark Rylance has emerged as the safest bet, and frontrunner to win the award outright, for his work in Bridge of Spies. I think Sylvester Stallone is a safe bet too--he has deservedly been picking up lots of nominations, and the Academy loves a comeback story. I also think Idris Elba is a lock--I still think that Beasts of No Nation has an uphill battle due to it being released on Netflix, and Elba is the movie's best chance at scoring a nomination at all (although, who knows, the movie might just get nominated for everything).

This leaves two more spots for at least six actors. I'm choosing Jacob Tremblay for Room as my first pick. Often, there are child actors who do really great work and everyone thinks they won't be nominated simply because they're kids. But then, they often do get a nomination (ask Hailee Steinfeld and Quvenzhane Wallis) and considering that Tremblay's role is prominent enough that he really should be in the leading category, I think he's hard to ignore. This leaves one more spot, and I'm picking Michael Shannon for purely personal reasons. Of the remaining contenders, I personally think he gives the best performance, and he's been picking up steam with nominations at the Golden Globes, the SAG Awards, and Critic's Choice Awards. So, if someone else gets the nomination over Shannon I won't be too surprised, but I'm picking him anyway because he's as good of a bet as anyone else.

But...it's probably going to be Christian Bale. Just because I think there's an unwritten rule that one acting nomination each year has to be a really stupid choice.

Best Supporting Actress:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) Rooney Mara—Carol

2) Alicia Vikander—The Danish Girl

3) Jennifer Jason Leigh—The Hateful Eight

Probably going to be nominated:

4) Rachel McAdams—Spotlight

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

5) Kate Winslet—Steve Jobs

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

Helen Mirren—Trumbo

Has “upset” potential:

Kristen Stewart—Clouds of Sils Maria

Elizabeth Banks—Love & Mercy

Cynthia Nixon—James White

Jennifer Jason Leigh has earned a considerable amount of buzz for her standout work in the ensemble cast of The Hateful Eight.

Again, we have three locks for nominations, and then it's a bit of a free-for-all. Or, four locks for nominations if you want to count Rachel McAdams, whose nomination here might be meant to represent the strength of the entire Spotlight cast. But after Rooney Mara, Alicia Vikander, Jennifer Jason Leigh, and McAdams have all picked up their expected nominations, there's still one more slot to fill. The smart money is on Kate Winslet. The Academy loves her, and she's been picking up nominations for her work in Steve Jobs left and right. But, I'm not convinced. Steve Jobs doesn't have the support it once did, and while I did like Winslet's work in Steve Jobs, her accent was noticeably inconsistent, and considering how good Winslet always is, this really isn't her best work. The problem is that I don't know who else would get this fifth spot. If we consider the precursor awards, then Helen Mirren might get in for her solid but not exactly exceptional work in Trumbo. If we go by critical acclaim, it might be Kristen Stewart or Cynthia Nixon. And I'm not ready to count out Elizabeth Banks, who picked up some Oscar buzz for her work in Love & Mercy, but hasn't gotten a ton of awards recognition for her role yet. My five selections are definitely the obvious choices, but none of them--especially Winslet--are immune to an upset.

Best Original Screenplay:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) Spotlight

2) Bridge of Spies

Probably going to be nominated:

3) The Hateful Eight

4) Inside Out

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

5) Ex Machina

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

Straight Outta Compton

Has “upset” potential:

Sicario

Trainwreck

Love & Mercy

Youth

"And then everything goes red because that color is SYMBOLIC!" Excerpt from Alex Garland's screenplay for Oscar hopeful Ex Machina

Again, I have no idea. Once again, the precursor awards have been all over the place, but the screenplay categories are also notoriously weird, and often give nominations to excellent movies that otherwise receive no other nominations (Nightcrawler, In Bruges, Happy-Go-Lucky, Before Midnight, and In the Loop come to mind). At this point, Spotlight and Bridge of Spies seem like the safest bets--they're both Best Picture favorites and have been accumulating precursor awards. The Hateful Eight and Inside Out were both seen as locks--and still are heavily favored for a nomination--but the fact that neither got a Writers Guild nomination this year does lower their stock quite a bit. But assuming they do get nominations after all (both Quentin Tarantino and Pixar have a good record in this category), then we have one spot left. Straight Outta Compton, Sicario, and amazingly Trainwreck all got Writers Guild nominations, which automatically puts them on the radar. And while the charming Love & Mercy and Youth have both failed to make a huge impact in the Best Picture category, they still might have enough fans and critical acclaim to sneak in here. But I'm going to go with the excellent Ex Machina--of the films I've mentioned, it's the one where I think the screenplay itself is most memorable, and therefore is my wild card pick for the fifth spot.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) Steve Jobs

2) The Big Short

3) The Martian

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

4) Room

5) Carol

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

Brooklyn

Trumbo

The Revenant

Has “upset” potential:

Creed

Anomalisa

There's a good chance that the screenplay for Trumbo was really written by Bryan Cranston, but under the pseudonym John McNamara. And there's also a good chance that the performance of Bryan Cranston was really given by Dalton Trumbo, using the pseudonym of Bryan Cranston.

As much as Steve Jobs failed to live up to its early Oscar buzz, there still has been pretty universal acclaim for Aaron Sorkin's screenplay. And practically every other awards ceremony has nominated The Big Short and The Martian so their spots are fairly set in stone at this point. Even though I thought The Big Short's screenplay was really horrendous (sorry to all you Big Short fans out there). This leaves only two spots, and lots of high profile films which could be strong contenders. Carol, Room, Brooklyn, and The Revenant were all once seen as early favorites to win here, but the category is too crowded for all of them. Many were underwhelmed by the actual screenplay for The Revenant, so of the four, it's probably the least likely to gain a spot, but any of the other three could take it. And then there's Trumbo, which gained a surprise Writers Guild nomination which has put it back into the ring. And with this crowded category, there might just be a chance for an upset to sneak in. In a just world, Creed and Anomalisa would both be shoo-ins, so I still hold out hope for them both. I think Anomalisa might just have a chance considering it was penned by Oscar-favorite Charlie Kaufman.

So, in summation, I have no idea. There will be five nominees and they will all be screenplays that were adapted from something. That I can say with certainty.

Best Foreign Language Feature:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) Son of Saul (Hungary)

2) Mustang (France)

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

3) Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)

4) The Brand New Testament (Belgium)

5) Viva (Ireland)

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)

A War (Denmark)

The Fencer (Finland)

Theeb (Jordan)

The wonderful young cast of Mustang, which  I think deserves to win over the perceived frontrunner Son of Saul.

I know that the five nominees will be from the nine titles mentioned above because these are the only nine movies that made the shortlist for this category! all categories should do this--it makes narrowing down one's predictions a lot easier. Son of Saul is the frontrunner to win, and Mustang is the frontrunner to win 2nd place, and both are definite nominees. The other three spots are anyone's guess in a category that is notoriously difficult to predict. Many others are predicting a nomination for Labyrinth of Lies, but I found it underwhelming, so based solely on my personal opinion of it, I'm leaving it off of my predictions. I haven't had a chance to see any of the other six entrants, but have heard good things about all of them (with the exception of Theeb which I've heard nothing about). Again, anyone's guess, but based solely on word of mouth, I've given a slight edge to the entries from Colombia, Belgium, and Ireland.

Best Animated Feature:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) Inside Out

2) Anomalisa

Probably going to be nominated:

3) The Peanuts Movie

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

4) Shaun the Sheep

5) When Marnie Was There

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

The Good Dinosaur

Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet

Has “upset” potential:

Minions

The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

The Boy and the Beast

The Boy and the World

If Kahlil Gibran's The Prophet has anything working against it, it's that TOO many people are talking about it. Frankly, I'm getting sick of attending parties where the first words out of everyone mouth is "Kahlil Gibran's The Prophet is a movie that I have heard of this year!"

The Boy and the Beast and The Boy and the World are both animated movies that the Academy deemed eligible for contention this year. They're also both apparently about boys and their companions, and are both movies that no one has ever heard of or seen. They are also both very unlikely to be nominated. Minions is seen by some as a potential contender due to its box office draw alone, but I think it faces an uphill battle considering that many felt it was one of the worst movies of the year. Then there's The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water which I've actually heard some positive things about...but can you seriously imagine this movie as an Oscar nominee?

That leaves seven movies competing for five nominations. Inside Out and Anomalisa are the two locks, with The Peanuts Movie close behind. Many feel that The Good Dinosaur is a safe bet simply because it's a Pixar film, but I've yet to hear of anyone who was blown away by this movie, and given that Pixar already has Inside Out in the ring this year, The Good Dinosaur is bound to suffer by comparison. Besides, as we saw when The Lego Movie failed to score a nomination last year, this category has been known to reward more independent films, which is why I think Studio Ghibli's When Marnie Was There and Aardman's Shaun the Sheep have a really good chance of making the list here.

Best Documentary Feature:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) Amy

2) The Look of Silence

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

3) He Named Me Malala

4) Cartel Land

5) Listen to Me, Marlon

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

Where to Invade Next

The Hunting Ground

Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
Best of Enemies
What Happened Miss Simone?

Has “upset” potential:

Heart of a Dog

Meru

We Come as Friends

3/12 Minutes, 10 Bullets

Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

He Named Me Malala was one of many highly acclaimed documentaries this year.

This is actually a surprisingly competitive category, with lots of fairly high profile documentaries in the running. I sound like a broken record saying "this is an unpredictable category," but it's true. I've made my selections based mostly on instinct, but no matter what, come nomination day there's going to be a high profile documentary that many will feel was snubbed.

Cinematography:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) The Revenant

2) Sicario

3) Mad Max: Fury Road

Probably going to be nominated:

4) The Martian

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

5) The Hateful Eight

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

Bridge of Spies

Carol

Brooklyn

Has “upset” potential:

The Walk

Brilliant cinematographer and perennial Oscar bridesmaid Roger Deakins, shooting Sicario.

This is a category filled with heavy-hitters. The Revenant is beautifully shot, and given the well-documented challenges that the crew imposed upon themselves during filming, it seems to have a good chance at not only getting a nomination, but winning. And if it does win, then cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki will make history by winning three years in a row. Then there's Roger Deakins, who many consider the greatest cinematographer working today, and he's likely to be nominated again for his excellent work on Sicario. If he does, then it'll be his thirteenth nomination in this category...and he somehow hasn't won yet! Mad Max: Fury Road seems like it could sweep the technical categories the same way Gravity did two years ago, and will easily score a nomination here. The Martian seems like a safe bet, with the remaining spot most likely going to a pretty period piece, with an advantage going to The Hateful Eight for its use of older equipment (one shot was filmed with the same exact lens that was used for the iconic opening of Ben Hur). A movie that nobody is talking about is The Walk, which had INCREDIBLE cinematography, so I'm personally hoping it sneaks in as an upset.

Costume Design:

Probably going to be nominated:

1) Carol

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

2) Cinderella

3) Brooklyn

4) The Hateful Eight

5) Crimson Peak

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

The Danish Girl

Mr. Holmes

The Revenant

Has “upset” potential:

Mad Max: Fury Road

Not too many are predicting a nomination for Crimson Peak, but the blend of gothic horror and period styles were my favorite costumes of the year by far.

Period pieces tend to sweep this category, which is why Carol, Brooklyn, and The Danish Girl are all seen as potential frontrunners. And while it's not a period piece, Cinderella's Sandy Powell has already won three Oscars for her work in previous films, and will most likely pick up another nomination here. I think this category is a bit too crowded, though, so I'm going against the grain and kicking The Danish Girl off of my list of predictions by default. What do I think will beat it out? I thought that The Hateful Eight's costumes were not only impressive on a technical level, they had a distinct sense of character to them and was one of the more interesting designs in film this year, beyond being simply pretty. I also am predicting Crimson Peak. Not a lot of people think it will be nominated, but I honestly don't understand how it could possibly be left off the list! The costumes were incredible! In a just world, Crimson Peak would be a contender in all of the technical awards, but I think the costumes specifically are too strong to be ignored.

Film Editing:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) Mad Max: Fury Road

2) Spotlight

Probably going to be nominated:

3) The Martian

4) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

5) The Revenant

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

Bridge of Spies

Steve Jobs
Carol

Room

It's hard to show "Film Editing" in a still shot...so, here's a shot from Mad Max: Fury Road by default.

I don't have too much to say about the film editing nominations, and many of my guesses here are just that--guesses. But this is really an important character This category is often linked with Best Picture with even more consistency than Best Director. Last year, Best Picture winner Birdman didn't receive a nomination for Best Editing...but it became the first Best Picture winner to not be nominated here since 1980. 1980! So, this is definitely an important category to pay attention to come nomination day.

Makeup & Hairstyling:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) Mad Max: Fury Road

2) Black Mass

3) The Revenant
4) The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared

5) Legend

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

Concussion

Mr. Holmes

I'm not sure which movie this makeup and hairstyling are from. Maybe Brooklyn?

This is another category that the Academy very kindly provided a shortlist for. This time, the shortlist has only seven titles on it--the smallest shortlist this year. Because of this, any of these seven have a good chance of scoring a nomination, with Mad Max: Fury Road and Black Mass the likely frontrunners. The two I think have the weakest chances are Concussion (really, only one actor had a major makeup prosthetic, which was impressive, but not as immediately noteworthy as some of the other entries here) and Mr. Holmes (having seen the film, I'm not exactly sure why it even made the shortlist). The biggest surprise on this shortlist? Definitely the obscure Swedish comedy The 100-Year-Old Man who Climbes out the Window and Disappeared. But this category loves old-age makeup and unconventional choices. Remember, it's because of this category that Bad Grandpa became an Oscar nominee.

Score:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) The Hateful Eight

2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Probably going to be nominated:

3) The Danish Girl

4) Carol

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

5) Bridge of Spies

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

Brooklyn

Mad Max: Fury Road

Spotlight

Steve Jobs

The title card for the overture from The Hateful Eight, and a wonderful setting for a fantastic theme by Ennio Morricone.

There were lots of really lovely scores this year, and this promises to be a stacked category. It's really anyone's game, but legendary composers Ennio Morricone and John Williams are impossible for the Oscars to ignore for their work on The Hateful Eight and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Also look for prolific movie composers Alexandre Desplat and Carter Burwell to score nominations for The Danish Girl and Carol respectively. While Desplat has been nominated multiple times, this would amazingly be Burwell's first ever nomination.

Production Design:

Definitely going to be nominated:

1) Mad Max: Fury Road

2) Carol

Probably going to be nominated:

3) Brooklyn

4) The Hateful Eight

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

5) Crimson Peak

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

The Revenant

The Danish Girl

The Martian

Bridge of Spies

Has “upset” potential:

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Cate Blanchett, languidly posing in a sea of Oscar-worthy production design choices.

Much like with cinematography and costume design, this is a category that usually goes to period pieces, which explains a lot of the titles I've included, although the frontrunner has to be the amazingly designed Mad Max: Fury Road. Just like with costume design, I've put Crimson Peak in this category when no other oddsmakers have because it's such a gorgeous film I honestly don't see how it can be ignored here.

Sound Editing:

Definitely going to be nominated:

Mad Max: Fury Road

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Probably going to be nominated:

The Revenant

The Martian

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

The Hateful Eight

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

Creed

The Walk

Has “upset” potential:

In the Heart of the Sea

Once again, I'm just putting a picture from Mad Max: Fury Road by default. Although should Furiosa choose to shoot that gun, it's going to make a sound that's gonna desperately require some motherfucking editing!!!!!

Sound editing and sound mixing are the two categories that no one cares about, but everyone really should because they have a huge impact on one's movie-watching experience. Often, action movies take up these nominations because they are the ones which require the most obvious uses of sound editing and mixing, which explains some of my predictions.

Sound Mixing:

Definitely going to be nominated:

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Mad Max: Fury Road

Probably going to be nominated:

The Martian

The Revenant

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

Creed

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

The Hateful Eight

Has “upset” potential:

The Walk

In the Heart of the Sea

Michael B. Jordan might be the main character, but I think we can all agree that the true star of Creed was the sound mixing. Right? We all agree with that?

I'm going a bit out on a limb by guessing Creed will be nominated here, but it's the film from this year which I think demonstrated the most actual artistry in terms of its sound mixing (whereas Mad Max and Star Wars had good sound mixing but great sound editing). If you've seen Creed, the reason those various fights are so effective is because of sound matching--pay attention to the lull of the crowd, and even more importantly, to what noise sometimes rises up from the crowd. A great example is in the famous "one-tracking-shot" fight, right as Adonis lands the winning blow, we hear Rocky's voice rise up calling "Now!" The sound mixing in this scenes provides great dramatic tension and demonstrates to us what Adonis is paying attention to in each moment, all through the use of sound. It's great work, and I really do hope it scores a nomination. 

But the best news is that none of the expected nominees have absolutely atrocious sound mixing, which couldn't be said about all of last year's nominees.

Visual Effects:

Definitely going to be nominated:

Mad Max: Fury Road

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

The Revenant

Probably going to be nominated:

The Martian

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

The Walk

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

Ex Machina

Jurassic World

Has “upset” potential:

Ant-Man

Avengers: Age of Ultron

Tomorrowland

The spectacular visual effects of Tomorrowland created true movie magic which was stuck in  one of the most aggressively forgettable movies of the past century.

This is another category which has a shortlist--this time, the field has been narrowed down to ten. Really, any of the ten could make a case for a nomination. Of these ten films, the only one I would be surprised to see included as a nominee is Tomorrowland, given that this movie was both a critical and commercial disappointment. Mad Max, and Star Wars are the clear frontrunners, and The Revenant is a safe bet here if only for the much talked about bear scene. The Martian's best picture buzz gives it an edge, and The Walk's titular tightrope walk is too impressive to ignore. Then again, it would be great to see some recognition for the flawless visual effects work that Ex Machina accomplished with a fraction of the budget the other contenders had, and the Academy might leap at their best chance to nominate blockbuster Jurassic World. Even with a smaller potential nomination field, this is a highly competitive category.

Original Song:

Definitely going to be nominated:

“Til It Happens To You” –The Hunting Ground

“See You Again”—Furious 7

“Simple Song #3”—Youth

Probably going to be nominated:

“Love Me Like You Do”—Fifty Shades of Grey

I think they’ll get nominated, but I’m not positive:

“Better When I’m Dancin’” –The Peanuts Movie

Also has a chance of getting nominated:

“Earned It”—Fifty Shades of Grey

“Flashlight”—Pitch Perfect 2

“The Light That Never Fails”—Meru

“So Long”—Concussion

Has “upset” potential:

“Writing’s on the Wall”—Spectre

“Cold One” –Ricki and the Flash

 “None of Them Are You”—Anomalisa

When Sam Smith sings that the writing's on the wall, don't believe him. There is quite clearly no writing of any sorts on this wall. Quite frankly, these are the sorts of plot holes that kept Spectre from being a runaway critical hit.

This category also released a shortlist...but that shortlist still has 74 entries on it, so it's not too helpful. This year there isn't a runaway favorite like there was with "Skyfall" or "Let It Go," so it's really a bit more up in the air. There's always bound to be some weird choices in this category, so I'll admit I haven't tried too hard to make my predictions. It looks like there's a swell of support, though, for the Lady Gaga song "Til It Happens To You" from the documentary The Hunting Ground, the Paul Walker tribute "See You Again," from Furious 7, and the classical and decidedly not pop "Simple Song #3" from Youth.

Live Action Short:

My predictions (based solely on title):
1) Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
2) Day One
3) Contrapelo (Against the Grain)
4) Ave Maria
5) Stutterer

The other films on the shortlist which have just as good a chance of being nominated:

Bad Hunter

Bis Gleich (Till Then)

The Free Man (Zi You Ren)

Shok

Winter Light

A poster for the short film Shok which must have taken hours to design.

So now, the only categories that remain are the short films. Most of these are unavailable to be seen at this point, so it is actually impossible to make concrete predictions. However, each category has been put into a shortlist, so I'm making predictions anyway since I'm bound to at least get a few right! I'm choosing these based solely on title.

Animated Short:

Definitely going to be nominated:
1) World of Tomorrow
2) Sanjay’s Super Team

My other predictions (based solely on title):

3) Carface
4) We Can't Live without Cosmos
5) An Object at Rest

The other films on the shortlist which have just as good a chance of being nominated:

Bear Story

If I Was God…

Love in the Time of March Madness

My Home

Prologue

Emily and Emily Prime gaze out into the landscape of the future in the brilliant World of Tomorrow

Unlike the other short film categories, I actually can predict two of the nominees with a good amount of confidence. Sanjay's Super Team is a Pixar short, which often make the list, and this one is supposed to be excellent and heartwarming. But it's still probably going to lose to World of Tomorrow, the latest from animator Don Hertzfeldt. Hertfeldt has gained a considerable cult following thanks to his previously Oscar-nominated short Rejected, and his feature It's Such a Beautiful Day (which is on Netflix). World of Tomorrow is his best work to date, and has been the de facto winner of this category ever since its debut at Sundance. Seriously, if you have a chance to watch this short, take it--it is one of the most hilarious, heartbreaking, beautiful, original, and thought-provoking films of the year, even with its short runtime. Regardless, these two are all but guaranteed a nomination, and it simply remains to be seen which other three will join them.

Documentary Short:
My predictions (based solely on title):
1) 50 Feet from Syria
2) A Girl in the River
3) Last Day of Freedom
4) My Enemy, My Brother
5) Body Team 12

The other films on the shortlist which have just as good a chance of being nominated:

Chau, beyond the Lines

Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

Minerity

Starting Point

The Testimony

According to this picture, apparently fifty feet from Syria, you'll find a secret garden!

The entries in this category tend to all have overwhelmingly depressing subject matters, so I chose the five that sounded the saddest. If this logic is correct, then a film called 50 Feet from Syria seems like a no-brainer...but we'll see!

And there you go, those are my predictions for the nominees in every single category. We'll see how I did on Thursday! Be sure to share your thoughts on my predictions, and any predictions of your own, in the comments!