The Oscars are on Sunday, which means it's time for me to make probably inaccurate predictions! Here are my thoughts on who will win, who might win, and who should win in all categories, along with some brief (and in some cases not THAT brief) analysis of why. Feel free to discuss!
BEST
PICTURE:
WILL WIN: La
La Land
COULD BE: Moonlight
SHOULD WIN: Moonlight
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Paterson
Early on in the year, it became clear that there
were three contenders for Best Picture. The grand nostalgic musical La La Land, the quiet drama Manchester by the Sea, and the surprise
indie masterpiece Moonlight—the only
one that hadn’t been regularly pegged as a contender even before its release.
Since then, the buzz for Manchester by
the Sea has faded a bit—it’s a good film which is still likely to pick up
some other awards, but it’s too small a film to sustain the momentum it once
built up. Conversely, La La Land has
emerged as the clear frontrunner, picking up award after award. As La La Land’s star has risen, its critics
are starting to become more vocal (as often happens to an Oscar frontrunner)
and there are definitely some valid criticisms to make about La La Land. I enjoyed the film very
much, but I think the strongest key to its Oscar success is that it’s just an
objectively well-made film. That’s why it has so many nominations—because all
of the individual elements are so impeccably done. Everyone in the Academy
votes for Best Picture, and La La Land is
going to be the nominee that will appeal most to those in the technical
categories. Similarly, Oscar voters tend to like movies that comment on the
industry itself—like recent winners The
Artist, Argo, and Birdman. But Moonlight shouldn’t be counted out. An absolutely beautiful film, Moonlight’s emotional resonance is its strongest
asset. It only had a fraction of La La
Land’s budget and far less of a producers push behind it, and yet it’s
still in the running. It’s the superior film, and this category has been known
to have spoilers before. Plus, it should be mentioned, starting this year there
was a push to make the Academy’s voting bloc more diverse—a win for Moonlight might be a good indicator that
this is paying off.
BEST
DIRECTOR:
WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
COULD WIN: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
SHOULD WIN: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Park Chan-wook, The Handmaiden
Best Director and Best Picture usually go hand in
hand, but not always. So it makes sense that the contenders for this award are
the same as for Best Picture. Damien Chazelle was marked as a rising star in
the field after Whiplash, and his
helming of La La Land is undeniably
impressive. The film’s critics point to the screenplay far more than Chazelle’s
work. And his work creating some of the film’s truly magical musical sequences
mark him as the one to beat. Even if Moonlight
goes on to win Best Picture, I still think this is Chazelle’s award to
lose. I’ll be very happy if Chazelle wins, but I did personally respond more to
the direction of Barry Jenkins. The visual narrative and emotional swells he
created are wonderful, but Jenkins deserves it if only for making a role played
by three actors still feel like one cohesive performance.
BEST
ACTRESS:
WILL WIN: Emma Stone, La La Land
COULD WIN: Natalie Portman, Jackie
SHOULD WIN: Natalie Portman, Jackie
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Elle Fanning, The Neon Demon
Natalie Portman became the frontrunner for this
award as soon as anyone saw Jackie.
Her absolute embodiment of Jackie Kennedy earned her rave reviews. And as soon
as I saw the film, I understood why. Her performance is remarkable—she
absolutely transforms and perfectly captures the essence of Jacqueline Kennedy.
It’s the type of exemplary and ambitious performance that awards shows are
designed to recognize. And my instincts still say there’s no way she can’t win.
It was in fact my favorite performance of the year. And for a while, Portman
was winning award after award after award. But for some reason the tide seems
to be turning. As Jackie as a whole
failed to resonate with voters, and La La
Land continued to soar with voters, suddenly Emma Stone received a swell of
attention from some of the Oscars’ most prominent precursor awards. Most
notable, the SAG Awards. Perhaps it’s because Stone’s character is a struggling
actor, and that’s something that resonated strongly with most of the SAG
voters. Who knows why, but suddenly Stone has overtaken Portman to become the
frontrunner in this category. I think Stone does lovely work in La La Land, but for her to win over
Portman is frankly disgraceful. And yet, I think it’s going to happen. I’m
predicting Stone will win, but I really hope I’m wrong.
BEST ACTOR:
WILL WIN: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
COULD WIN: Denzel Washington, Fences
SHOULD WIN: Denzel Washington, Fences
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: John Goodman, 10 Cloverfield Lane & Adam Driver, Paterson
If we were to judge by performance alone, this is
Casey Affleck’s award hands down. Affleck’s performance in Manchester by the Sea is intensely personal, and often emotionally
devastating. He carries the film beautifully and it is certainly the best work
of his career. He’s already won lots of awards for his performance, and adding
an Oscar to his belt seems almost inevitable. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that he
doesn’t have much competition in this category. Denzel Washington does good
work, but his performance might have been improved if he hadn’t also been the
film’s director—with no objective eye to watch his performance in a very theatrical
film, he’s lacking the restraint that his co-stars demonstrate beautifully.
Ryan Gosling is fine in La La Land,
but his nomination here is far more for the movie itself than Gosling in
particular. I haven’t seen Hacksaw Ridge
and I’m not going to, and I’m sure Andrew Garfield is good in it, but I’ve not
heard anything exemplary about his work. And the most laughable nominee is
Viggo Mortensen—he’s a wonderful actor but he brings absolutely nothing to the
table in Captain Fantastic. Frankly,
I thought it was a disappointingly stupid movie, but I don’t see how even the
film’s fans could argue that Mortensen deserves an Oscar for his work—the
script just doesn’t give him anything interesting to do. So, yeah, this should
be Affleck’s to run away with.
EXCEPT…since the film’s release, it has become
known that Affleck is a piece of shit rapist. And that’s a big deal. His work
is good, and I’m not suggesting people have to boycott Manchester by the Sea, but maybe this is not the type of person we
should be giving major awards to? So, should he win? Absolutely not. Of his fellow nominees, Washington gives the
best performance, and his win at the SAG Awards suggests that a lot of actors
might be uncomfortable with Affleck taking home the top prize. Still, the
Academy hasn’t had a problem giving awards to pieces of shit in the past (cough
cough Mel Gibson is a fucking Oscar nominee in the year 2017 cough cough) so I
still think he’s going to be the winner. I, however, will always dream of an
alternate reality where the Oscar went to one of the far more interesting
leading male performances that didn’t receive any awards attention this year:
like Adam Driver’s masterclass in subtlety in Paterson or John Goodman’s terrifying performance in 10 Cloverfield Lane, which to me was
reminiscent of Kathy Bates’ Oscar-winning work in Misery and should have been campaigned for as such.
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
WILL WIN: Viola Davis, Fences
COULD WIN: Naomie Harris, Moonlight
SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis, Fences
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Gillian Jacobs, Don’t Think Twice
When I saw Moonlight,
one of my first thoughts was, “Well, Naomie Harris is going to win an Oscar.”
In a strong ensemble cast, Harris is absolutely the standout—her work is
undeniably powerful and personal. It is nuanced enough that it is respectful of
the craft, while also having enough showy moments that Oscar voters will pay
attention. And in any other year, I think that this would easily be Harris’
award. But, unfortunately, she’s up against Viola Davis. And Viola Davis is
absolutely brilliant in Fences. To
me, the performances are essentially neck and neck (I do think that Davis just
barely ekes out Harris, but I’d be happy with either of them winning based on
quality) but Davis has the story behind her to gain the Academy’s support.
She’s been nominated so many times and never won before, so it’s her time.
Luckily, just like when Julianne Moore won for Still Alice, “her time” manages to coincide with some of the best
work of her prolific career.
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
SHOULD WIN: Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: John Turturro, Mia Madre & Andre Holland, Moonlight & Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
Yeah, there’s not too much to say here: it’s
definitely gonna be Mahershala Ali. This is the only acting award that I think
is a solid slam dunk. Ali has won pretty much every award going into this
ceremony (with the exception of the Golden Globe, but those are fairly
meaningless anyway) and they can pretty much engrave the Oscar with his name at
this point.
Except…here’s the thing…and please don’t hate me…I
don’t quite get why he is the supporting actor from Moonlight who’s getting all the attention. Don’t get me wrong, he’s
wonderful, and he’s been consistently wonderful in everything he’s been in
outside of Moonlight too, but I guess
I didn’t find him to be as much of a standout in this ensemble as others did.
Perhaps it’s because the performance was hyped up for me so much before I saw
the film, but Ali is only in a small part of the movie, and after he left and
didn’t come back, I was left thinking, “Oh, that’s it?” Again, he’s good, but
with this strong of a cast, I just thought other performances were more
effective and affecting. Ali is a strong presence, but his character Juan just
isn’t written to showcase the numerous emotional layers of, for example, Kevin
and Chiron, as played in their adult forms by Andre Holland and Trevante
Rhodes. Their performances stayed with me a lot more than Ali’s. So, of the
nominees, I’ll admit that Ali doesn’t give what I think is truly the best
supporting performance. For me, that’s the young Lucas Hedges in Manchester by the Sea. But I’ll still
cheer along with everyone when Ali wins since he’s the one who’s been destined
to represent the superb ensemble of Moonlight.
BEST
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
WILL WIN: Manchester
by the Sea
COULD WIN: La
La Land
SHOULD WIN: Manchester
by the Sea
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Paterson
While La La
Land is poised to do very well this year, its screenplay isn’t exactly what
people are most excited about. If it wins here, it’ll mostly be as a default
win. Especially considering it’s up against the Manchester by the Sea, an acclaimed film whose screenplay is its
greatest strength. Kenneth Lonergan has been nominated for his screenplays
twice before and not won, and as he is unlikely to win Best Director or Best
Picture, this is a good category for the Academy to finally send an award
Lonergan’s way.
BEST
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
WILL WIN: Moonlight
COULD WIN: Arrival
SHOULD WIN: Moonlight
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Handmaiden
This category is rather strong this year. The Fences screenplay is attributed
posthumously to the wonderful August Wilson, and the screenplay for Arrival gave us one of the best science
fiction films in years. But, this award has to go to Moonlight. It’s simply too good—and offers the emotional strength
that non-writers love, and the lyrical artistry of language that writers love.
Plus, the writer’s branch of the Academy tends to be more consistently
adventurous than, say, the Best Picture category.
BEST
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
WILL WIN: Zootopia
COULD WIN: Kubo
and the Two Strings
SHOULD WIN: Zootopia
(although, to be fair, I haven’t seen The
Red Turtle yet and from what I’ve heard it’s brilliant and just might
overtake Zootopia in my mind)
In just the past few years, this has become one of
my absolute favorite Oscar categories. As the genre has advanced, a category
which used to only have three nominees or so in it has somehow become spoiled
for choice, and it’s genuinely competitive just to get a nomination. I also
love how the nominees have become a mixture of big budget major studio films
(this year, Disney films Zootopia and
Moana) and smaller indie films (this
year, Kubo and the Two Strings, My Life
as a Zucchini, and The Red Turtle).
Unfortunately, the heavy-hitters still have the advantage when it comes to the
actual win. But the good news is that those heavy-hitters tend to be really
good, and that’s the case here. Likely winner Zootopia is one of my favorite films of the year, and I think this
animal film noir with a social justice bent is a more than worthy entry into
the hall of animated film winners. But, this category could still surprise us,
and if it does, my guess is that surprise will be Kubo and the Two Strings. I don’t think it’s as good a film as Zootopia overall, but the animation is
pretty extraordinary, and Laika Studios has been nominated for every film
they’ve made and still never won, so the Academy might think they’re overdue.
BEST
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
WILL WIN: Toni
Erdmann (Germany)
COULD WIN: The
Salesman (Iran)
SHOULD WIN: A
Man Called Ove (Sweden)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Handmaiden (Korea)
For a while it looked like the German film Toni Erdmann, which was a hit ever since
its premiere at Cannes, was the runaway favorite here. And for good reason—this
wonderfully weird movie is funny, engaging, and wholly original. Plus, it’s
crowd-pleasing enough that an American remake has already been announced
starring Jack Nicholson and Kristen Wiig. But, in the past few weeks, the
Iranian film The Salesman has
suddenly become a contender. Director Asghar Farhadi has won this award before
for his masterpiece A Separation, and
while I haven’t seen it yet, I’ve heard good things about his latest offering.
Plus, it’s riding on buzz surrounding the news that Farhadi would not be
allowed to enter the United States for the ceremony due to Donald Trump’s
travel ban. In a political year, some Oscar voters might lean towards The Salesman just as a form of political
protest which might give it the edge. Or, who knows, perhaps voters will go for
the crowd-pleaser A Man Called Ove,
which is also nominated for makeup and hairstyling. I know that I was quite
taken with the surprising tearjerker, and ultimately liked it even more than Toni Erdmann.
Also, it’s worth noting, my two favorite foreignlanguage films of this year—The
Handmaiden and Mia Madre—weren’t
even submitted as potential contenders for this award, which is a shame because
they’re both excellent. Watch them!
BEST
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
WILL WIN: O.J.:
Made in America
COULD WIN: 13th
Pretty much everyone who has seen the 467 minute,
five-part documentary O.J.: Made in
America agrees it’s a masterpiece. And it has taken almost every Best
Documentary Award offered so far this year. So it should be the obvious
frontrunner, and it is. But I’m still wary—I think the fact that it was made
for television and was only released briefly in theaters to qualify for the
Oscars on a technicality might rub some Oscar voters the wrong way. If that
happens, then perhaps another documentary will steal this award away from O.J.: Made in America, in which case my
guess is the Ava DuVernay directed 13th.
BEST LIVE
ACTION SHORT FILM:
WILL WIN: La
Femme et le TGV
COULD WIN: Timecode,
Ennemis interieurs
SHOULD WIN: Timecode
The shorts are always some of my favorite
categories. I’ve gone out of my way to watch the nominees whenever I can for
the past few years, and I’m always glad I did. There are always some real gems
and so, once again, it’s time for my annual suggestion that people watch these
short movies. Really, they’re great! And pay for them—these films are usually
made by unknown filmmakers who have produced amazing work, and you get five
movies for the price of one!
And, this year, the live action shorts are
especially worth seeing. Even my least favorite, Sing, is still perfectly enjoyable and reasonably well done. And
while my second least favorite, Silent
Nights, at times falls into trite storytelling tropes, it’s remarkably
well-made and well-acted. But these two are noticeably a step below the other
three nominees, and I’d be happy if any of these three won.
Of my three favorites in this category, I think
that Ennemis interieurs, a mostly
two-person film about a French-Algerian man being interrogated on suspicion of
terrorism, is relevant to the issues of today, and incredibly gripping and
well-written, but I think it might be too wordy and quiet to actually take the
prize. Instead, I think this award will go to La Femme et le TGV, about a French woman who begins exchanging
letters with a stranger who rides the train past her house each day. It’s a
sweet, surprising film, that is wonderfully romantic, and probably the nominee
with the most universal appeal—which is why I think it will win. But, my
personal favorite is the Spanish film Timecode,
about two security guards who work day and night shifts and begin communicating
to each other through recorded dances. It’s hilarious, but also strangely
beautiful and is, to me, exactly what a short film should be: a simple story
that would never work as a feature, but feels complete in the little time it
has to tell its story. When I said, that the shorts always contain some gems, Timecode is exactly the kind of gem I’m
talking about.
BEST
ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
WILL WIN: Piper
COULD WIN: Borrowed
Time
SHOULD WIN: Blind
Vaysha
I found the animated short films a bit
underwhelming this year. It’s not that they were bad, but none of them excited
me the way some nominees have in the past few years. As a result, I think the
most likely winner will be the Pixar short Piper,
which was shown before Finding Dory.
Pixar actually hasn’t won this award in a while, and considering that they
don’t have any nominee in the animated feature category this time around,
they’re probably campaigning for Piper pretty
hard—certainly far more than the resources of the other films’ productions
companies would allow. But my personal favorite of this lineup was probably Blind Vaysha—a creepy Canadian folktale
with some gorgeous animation.
BEST
DOCUMENTARY- SHORT SUBJECT:
WILL WIN: Joe’s
Violin
SHOULD WIN: Extremis
Full disclosure: I’ve only been able to see three
of the five nominees in this category, so it’s a bit tough to gauge. 4.1 Miles and Watani: My Homeland might be amazing movies that will win this
category handily, but the three I have seen are still quite strong. I don’t
think the award will go to The White
Helmets, though. The short, about volunteer rescue workers in Syria, is powerful, but a bit plodding. I was
far more taken with Extremis, a
harrowing discussion of the decision doctors have to make to end the life of a
patient. It’s gripping stuff, and really well done, but it’s incredibly
depressing and might be too much for some viewers to consider. Far more
palatable is Joe’s Violin, which
tells the story of a Holocaust survivor who donated his violin to be used by a
promising 12-year-old music student in the Bronx. Both of these films are good,
but while Extremis will make its
audience sad, Joe’s Violin will make
them hopeful. And that’s more likely to earn votes from the Academy.
BEST
ORIGINAL SCORE:
WILL WIN: La
La Land
COULD WIN: Moonlight
La La Land
would actually be a pretty unconventional winner in this category, which
typically awards purely instrumental scores. But the original songs of La La Land, and the film’s overall
celebration of music, have clearly impressed the Academy and it seems like the
easy favorite here. If traditionalist voters want to shy away from lyrics,
though, the other nominees are still quite strong, with my favorite of the lot
being the score for Moonlight.
BEST
ORIGINAL SONG:
WILL WIN: “City of Stars”—La La Land
COULD WIN: “How Far I’ll Go”—Moana
SHOULD WIN: “Audition (Fools Who Dream)”—La La Land
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: “Drive It Like You
Stole It”—Sing Street
Just like with score, the fact that La La Land celebrates music so much
means that its win in this category has been practically predetermined. The
main question is which song it’ll be for? Of the two nominated songs from La La Land, I personally prefer
“Audition,” but I have a feeling that the film’s recurring theme, “City of
Stars” is the one the producers are pushing. There is a chance, of course, that
voters will be split between the two songs, and that’ll allow another song to
win—which means Lin-Manuel Miranda might ride his Hamilton buzz all the way to becoming the youngest ever EGOT winner
for Moana.
Although, personally, I’m sad that no original
song from John Carney’s utterly charming Sing
Street made the cut. Especially Drive
It Like You Stole It—which for me beat out every single one of La La Land’s individual musical numbers.
BEST
PRODUCTION DESIGN:
WILL WIN: La
La Land
COULD WIN: Hail,
Caesar!
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Neon Demon
Haters of La
La Land be warned: you’re about to get very, very angry. Because the common
wisdom in picking the winners in this year’s technical categories seems to be,
“just guess La La Land for
everything.” But…it’s really not a bad strategy. And while it might not win
every award it’s up for, barring a surprise, it’s going to win most of them.
Starting with Production Design. Although if not, this might be a win for
another love letter to old Hollywood, the otherwise ignored Coen Brothers
comedy Hail, Caesar!
BEST
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
WILL WIN: La
La Land
COULD WIN: Moonlight
SHOULD WIN: La
La Land
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Hardcore Henry
Again, La La
Land is going to win all the technical awards. And, of the nominees, I do
think it features the best cinematography. But part of me kind of wants to see Moonlight take this one. On an objective
level, La La Land’s cinematography is
better, but what Moonlight did on a
fraction of the budget is pretty impressive, creating a rich and colorful
visual narrative that serves the story perfectly.
BEST MAKEUP
AND HAIRSTYLING:
WILL WIN: Star
Trek Beyond
The old age makeup in A Man Called Ove is really impressive, but I don’t see how it’ll
compete against the fantastical science fiction creatures in Star Trek Beyond. Also if the third and
final nominee, Suicide Squad,
actually wins an Oscar—even just an Oscar for makeup— I will lose my goddamn
mind.
BEST
COSTUME DESIGN:
WILL WIN: La
La Land
COULD WIN: Allied
Again, it’s not smart to bet against La La Land, so I’m predicting it here.
But I do have some reservations. I think the costumes in this film are good,
and they’re definitely stylized, but this category tends to prefer period
pieces over contemporary films. And if that’s the case, the stylish costumes of
Allied might just pull an upset.
BEST FILM
EDITING:
WILL WIN: La
La Land
COULD WIN: Moonlight
Even more than Best Director, the award for Best
Film Editing typically goes hand in hand with Best Picture. For that reason
alone, La La Land and Moonlight are the frontrunners here. But
I do think La La Land has the edge,
even if Moonlight ultimately takes
home the top prize. For one this, editor Tom Cross already won this award for
his last collaboration with Damien Chazelle, Whiplash, and flashy musical numbers showcase ambitious film
editing really, really well.
BEST SOUND
MIXING:
WILL WIN: La
La Land
COULD WIN: Arrival
Again, La La
Land is the smart choice for the technical categories. Although, the use of
sound in Arrival is really quite
brilliant, so that might overtake it here. More on that in my discussion of the
next category…
BEST SOUND
EDITING:
WILL WIN: Arrival
COULD WIN: Hacksaw
Ridge, La La Land
Okay, so here I’m breaking with my tradition and
going with Arrival. This film used
sound editing to create an entire alien language. That’s pretty badass, and
really impressive. If the voters know enough about sound editing, then Arrival will be the winner. Although, of
course, it could still be La La Land.
Or possibly even wartime drama Hacksaw
Ridge, as war films often do well in this category.
BEST VISUAL
EFFECTS:
WILL WIN: The
Jungle Book
COULD WIN: Kubo
and the Two Strings
This kind of has to be The Jungle Book. Not only was that film gorgeous, but it redefined
what visual effects could really be. It’s the type of film this category is
basically designed to recognize. But last year, Ex Machina scored a shocking win in this category, beating out
films with a significantly larger budget. If an underdog can triumph again this
year, it’ll be the visually stunning animation of Kubo and the Two Strings. This is only the second animated film to
be nominated in this category (the first being The Nightmare Before Christmas) and it has earned its nomination
for creating one of the most unique and distinct looks of any animated film
ever.
