It's worth noting a few things. For one thing, there are PLENTY of foreign language films that are great but don't get an Oscar nomination. This can be for a few reasons. Like in all categories, there are bound to be some snubs. Last year, one of the most hyped-about films, France's BPM (Beats Per Minute) failed to even make the shortlist. So like any Oscars analysis, my predictions could be WAY off. This is ESPECIALLY true for the foreign language film category which is decided upon by a bizarrely secretive and really small committee. Secondly, this category has a LOT of technicalities to its submission process, which have in past years left a lot of foreign language films with a lot of acclaim out of the running completely. Each country can only submit one film per year, which is a problem when a country has multiple prestige films at its disposal. Italy has a good pick this year with Dogman, but that means leaving out the Martin Scorsese-produced Happy as Lazzaro. France had several great options on its shortlist this year (including Gaspar Noe's Climax and Xavier Legrand's gripping drama Custody, my favorite film of the year so far) but somewhat surprisingly picked Memoirs of War, which has received mixed reviews and seems like a longshot. That's not even counting Olivier Assayas' acclaimed Non-Stop, which might have been a frontrunner had it not been disqualified on a technicality concerning its release date. And then there's Rafiki, an LGBTQ film from Kenya which was initially disqualified by the government for "promoting lesbianism." After a legal battle, the film WAS considered, but ultimately not chosen by Kenya as it's submission. I'm hoping the controversy will allow the film to find a U.S. distributor so we can all see and support this groundbreaking film. All of this is to say that the below list and analysis is just a small sample of what international cinema has to offer. See foreign films! They're great! And now, onto my analysis of the most buzz-worthy submissions to the Foreign Language Film category this year.
THE FRONTRUNNERS:
Film: Roma
What It's About: The life of a middle class family and its live-in housekeeper in Mexico City in the early 1970s. It's a semi-autobiographical film from Oscar-winning director Alfonso Cuaron.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Even with a crowded field this year, Roma is already the odds-on favorite to win this awards. It's not only a solid Foreign Language Film contender, it's being touted as a potential Best Picture contender, with Oscar prognosticators murmuring that it could be the first foreign language film to win Best Picture. There's also buzz for the leading actress, the previously unknown Yalitza Aparicio. Cuaron is best known in the U.S. for his technical prowess, on display in sci-fi and fantasy films like Gravity, Children of Men, and Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban. But he got his start making excellent, more understated films, with the most acclaimed probably being the poignant Y Tu Mama Tambien. It seems like Roma is a return to his earlier style of filmmaking, and will be his most personal film to date. There's no reason to believe this won't live up to its considerable hype.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: There's a danger in being the frontrunner too early: it puts a film on the defensive. With a crowded field, Oscar voters might be judging Roma at a too-high standard, or want to throw a vote to a strong but less-buzzed-about film. This category is, after all, commonly prone to spoilers. Just ask previous "surefire winners" like Amelie or Pan's Labyrinth which didn't take home their expected prize. Also, and I think this is critical, Roma is being distributed by Netflix. And the Academy has proven to be steadfastly reluctant to acknowledge Netflix films.
Film: Cold War
What It's About: A passionate romance between to mismatched lovers set in the aftermath of the Cold War in the 1950s.
Why It Will Be Nominated: If there's a film likely to unseat Roma as the winner in this category, it'll be Cold War. Director Pawel Pawlikowski previously won the Oscar for his previous film Ida (which also received a nomination for Best Cinematography). Cold War appears to be a worthy successor to Ida, and already earned Pawlikowski the Best Director prize at Cannes.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: It's hard to imagine it won't be. But if it isn't, it'll just be because of how many strong submissions there are this year. And maybe the nominating committee will have black and white fatigue and not want to nominate both it AND Roma for that reason. But that would be an upset--this is a movie MADE for this category if there ever was one.
THE STANDOUTS FROM CANNES:
Film: Shoplifters
What It's About: An impoverished family that takes in an abandoned child.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Whenever a film wins the coveted Palme d'Or at Cannes, the Oscars have to take notice. This year, that prize went to Shoplifters. The reviews imply this film is understated and powerful, so by all accounts it lives up to its accolades. It's easy to see Shoplifters as a genuine contender.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: The Oscars actually has less of a link to Cannes as one might think. Since 2000, only one Palme d'Or winner has actually won the Foreign Language Film Oscar (that was Amour, which also earned a Best Picture nomination). Last year's Palme d'Or winner, The Square, did score a nomination, but didn't win. One of the most common things mentioned in reviews of Shoplifters is how understated it is, and while that should make for a compelling and touchingly human drama, it might mean that Shoplifters gets passed over for other, flashier nominees.
Film: Burning
What It's About: A delivery-man who reconnects with an old friend on the eve of her trip to Africa. When she returns with a man she met in Africa, the three become embroiled in a mystery. It's adapted from a Haruki Murakami short story.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Shoplifters may have won the Palme d'Or, but the most buzzed about film from Cannes was Burning. It may not have won any official prizes from the jury, but it received vocal raves. Every year, all the critics in attendance are polled about the films in contention, and those films are given weighted scored. Burning didn't just receive the highest rating in 2018, it has the highest critical rating of any film at Cannes EVER. Everyone who's seen it seems to be blown away by it. Plus, it stars The Walking Dead's Steven Yeun, whose familiar face might increase the film's chances with the American Oscars voting bloc.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Its rave reviews STILL left it empty-handed at Cannes. Who's to say the same thing won't happen at the Oscars.
Film: Capernaum
What It's About: A 12-year old boy living in squalor on the streets of Beirut who sues his parents for bringing him into this world.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Capernaum received a fantastic reception at Cannes, winning the Jury Prize (essentially 3rd place) and receiving a 15-minute standing ovation. The cast of mostly non-actors are supposed to be incredible, and this modern day fable from Nadine Labaki is being described not only as a strong film, but as a LIKABLE film that could potentially have a lot of commercial appeal. Lebanon received a nomination last year for its entry, The Insult (which was brilliant) and seems to have a strong chance of receiving another nomination this year.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Critics liked Capernaum, but not all were sold on it completely. I've seen quite a few reviews calling Capernaum uneven, even while acknowledging its triumphs. Looking at its track record at other film festivals (including the Calgary, Melbourne, Norwegian, Sarajevo, Toronto, and San Sebastian Film Festivals) it has consistently won the Audience Award or Fan Favorite award, as opposed to the awards given out by the official panel. I think Capernaum will be loved by audiences and could develop quite a following. That doesn't necessarily translate to an Oscar nomination.
Film: Border
What It's About: A deformed worker for the Swedish border agency, who has the unique gift of literally sniffing out guilt and shame to detect contraband being brought into the country, meets a strange man with the same deformation as her.
Why It Will Be Nominated: This film is supposed to be WILD. Director Ali Abbasi holds an Iranian passport, and this fantasy film will undoubtedly have a satirical bent and offer pointed commentary on immigration. That's a theme that's particularly relevant in the United States, and given the film's strong reviews, it might just be the most timely submission this year. Plus, most of the notable submissions this year are dramas firmly grounded in realism. Perhaps a film like this with a more offbeat premise and look will stand out from the pack.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: The Oscars are not known for responding to "weird" films, and Border promises to be quite weird indeed. I've already said numerous times that it's an especially competitive category this year, and to earn a nomination, Border will have to overcome challenges from other more Oscar-y films. But if it doesn't score a Foreign Language Film nomination, look for it to maybe appear in Best Makeup & Hairstyling.
OTHER SOLID BETS:
Film: Never Look Away
What It's About: An art student in post-war East Germany who falls in love with a fellow student. But her father, a Professor who had a role in the Nazi eugenics program, opposes their relationship. It's inspired by the life of Gerhard Richter.
Why It Will Be Nominated: One of my favorite films of all time is The Lives of Others, from Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck. It's a brilliant film, which pulled a shocking upset to win Best Foreign Language Film over the clear favorite Pan's Labyrinth. And...I completely understand why The Lives of Others won, which is saying something. The film hailed von Donnersmarck as a bold, new cinematic voice, and everyone wanted to know what he'd do next. Well...what he did next was The Tourist, a completely forgettable movie that is probably only remembered because Ricky Gervais mercilessly mocked it throughout his Golden Globes hosting gig for two years straight. Never Look Away is von Donnersmarck's third film, made 8 years after The Tourist, and many have (thankfully) said it's a promising return to form. I for one am glad to see him back, and I imagine others in the industry feel the same way. It certainly sounds thematically similar to The Lives of Others, and if it's even a fraction as good, it's going to be one to watch in this category for sure.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: While Never Look Away has received great reviews, it hasn't received as amazing reviews as The Lives of Others did. And, again, in a competitive year, it might not be enough to stand out from the pack. Still, I'm quite excited for this film, and if this film doesn't make the cut, I imagine Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck is destined for Oscar glory in the future. Hopefully it doesn't take 8 years for him to make another film.
Film: Sunset
What It's About: A young girl who finds her inner strength in Budapest before World War I.
Why It Will Be Nominated: One of the most acclaimed films to win Best Foreign Language Film in recent years is the Hungarian Holocaust drama Son of Saul, the directorial debut of Laszlo Nemes. Nemes is now two for two, now that his second film was chosen as Hungary's submission this year. Given how sensational Son of Saul was, any film of Nemes' will automatically be considered an Oscar contender.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Sunset simply hasn't generated the kind of buzz that Son of Saul had, and reviews have been a bit mixed. There are, as I write this, 14 reviews of Sunset on Rottentomatoes, and 7 are negative. This film will certainly have it's fans, but also seems to have its fair share of detractors. It's also worth noting that I personally HATED Son of Saul. I don't see how it was anything other than misery porn. I'm hoping Sunset will be a bit lighter (and, frankly, it kind of HAS to be), but without the same brutality, I don't know how it will make the same artistic statement that Son of Saul admittedly made.
Film: The Guilty
What It's About: An emergency dispatcher on desk duty receives a frantic call from a kidnapped woman, which ends abruptly. From the confines of the police station, he must find and rescue the woman.
Why It Will Be Nominated: The Guilty just looks really good. The entire film appears to be set in real-time and will take place almost entirely in one room. It's a gimmick for sure, but if The Guilty can pull it off, it should be absolutely thrilling. And, by all accounts, it seems like the film is phenomenal, with first-time director Gustav Moller and star Jakob Cedergren receiving rave reviews. The film sounds exciting, and could be destined to be a cult classic, as well as a potential Oscar nominee.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: The Foreign Language Film category tends to be about pedigree. The Academy LOVES to award big names (Akira Kurosawa famously complained how Japanese cinema was largely, unfairly ignored outside of his own films) and The Guilty just doesn't have the big guns behind it. It's a first-time director, and it doesn't have much studio pull either. It's a really low-budget film, and it's honestly incredibly impressive that it's been selected as the Danish submission at all. It's a definite underdog here, and scoring a nomination would be a true testament to its quality. Even if it doesn't make the shortlist, it sounds like The Guilty is a strong debut, and look for Moller's future films to be favorites in this category in a few years.
Film: The Heiresses
What It's About: Chela and Chiquita, a married couple both from affluent families, who are faced with a new reality when Chiquita is imprisoned on fraud charges and they must both sell their inherited possessions. Chela has to work for the first time, and starts a local taxi service for wealthy old ladies.
Why It Will Be Nominated: The Heiresses made a huge splash at the Berlin International Film Festival, one of the top festivals in the world. It won second place, and star Ana Brun won Best Actress. It might not be as buzzed about as other films on this list, but it certainly caught the attention of quite a few Oscar prognosticators as a potential dark horse. Paraguay has never been nominated in this category--in fact this is only the third film the country has ever submitted--but that doesn't disqualify it. After all, last year's Foreign Language Film winner, A Fantastic Woman, came from Chile, a country which had never won this award before.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Cannes was especially strong this year, and so Foreign Language films that weren't at Cannes have been playing catch-up all year. The Heiresses has buzz, but the question is whether it has enough buzz so late in the year. The Oscar committee has had several more months to be excited about films like Shoplifters, Burning, and Capernaum. The Heiresses is in the running, but it needs to build momentum.
And speaking of Cannes...
OTHER CANNES PICKS:
Film: Dogman
What It's About: A dog groomer who, after being released from prison for a robbery he was unfairly made a part of, seeks revenge on the drug dealer who lied to him.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Matteo Garrone is a great filmmaker who has been gaining a consistent following both in Italy and outside of it. But none of his films have ever been Oscar-nominated. This could just be his year to finally make it to the Academy Awards. It was a strong year for Italian films, and there were several acclaimed films that were up for consideration to be the Italian submission. Dogman being the Italian submission this year is already a huge achievement. Scoring an actual nomination isn't too much of a stretch.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Like the other films in this section of my post, Dogman received strong reviews at the Cannes film festival. But for whatever reason, it couldn't quite get the same buzz as the films in my earlier "STANDOUTS FROM CANNES" section. Especially because of Garrone, Dogman is in the running, but it will need to pick up momentum for sure.
Film: The Wild Pear Tree
What It's About: An aspiring writer returns to the village where he was born determined to gather enough money to become a published author.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Nuri Bilge Ceylan is one of Turkey're foremost directors. While no Turkish film has ever been nominated for the Foreign Language Film Oscar, his films have been submitted to the Academy five times, more than any other Turkish director. And his film Three Monkeys is the only Turkish submission to ever make the shortlist. He's already a respected filmmaker, and The Wild Pear Tree is being cited by many as his new career-best film. It received near universal acclaim at Cannes, and should be on any international film buff's radar.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Again, it's warm reception at Cannes was enough to keep it in the Oscar conversation, but not enough to pull it away from the pack. It sounds like a wonderfully poetic film, but amongst flashier contenders it's questionable whether it can enough of a splash to receive a nomination.
Film: Birds of Passage
Country: Colombia
What It's About: A Wayuu family involved in the illegal drug trade in Colombia, it's an epic historical crime saga told in five chapters.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Colombia earned its first nomination three years ago with Embrace of the Serpent from director Ciro Guerra. Now Guerra is back, co-directing with his frequent producing partner Cristina Gallego. The film has been earning favorable comparisons to other crime epics, such as The Godfather trilogy and The Sopranos. In a category often filled with arthouse films, Birds of Passage could stand out as a more exciting film, which voters might respond to.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: In a weaker year, Birds of Passage would probably have been a shoo-in. In 2018, it might have to settle for merely being a contender. It's a bit of an enigma, and it's tough for me to figure out how strong it's chances are.
Film: Girl
What It's About: A 15-year old transgender ballerina, navigating puberty and her training as she begins taking hormones.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Girl did quite well at Cannes, winning the Camera d'Or given out to the best first feature, as well as the Queer Palm, an independently-awarded prize for the best film at Cannes focused on LGBTQ themes. Last year's winner, A Fantastic Woman, was an extraordinary film about a transgender woman, and Belgium is clearly hoping that Girl will follow suit.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: A big difference between Girl and A Fantastic Woman is that A Fantastic Woman actually had a transgender actress (the glorious Daniela Vega, who should have received a Best Actress nomination), while Girl has controversially cast a cisgender boy for the titular character. We really should be beyond this by now, and while it hasn't been that long since Eddie Redmayne received a nomination for The Danish Girl, one hopes that the Academy is slowly becoming more aware of this issue. The film does have a decent amount of buzz, but if it makes the shortlist, expect some backlash before the nominations are determined.
Film: Woman at War
What It's About: A choir conductor and political vandal who must reassess her activism in the wake of a government smear campaign against her and her upcoming adoption.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Woman at War wasn't in competition at Cannes, but was shown during International Critics' Week to much acclaim, especially for its screenplay and for lead actress Halldora Geirharosdottir. It's strong notice put it on the Oscar radar, and it could sneak into the shortlist. Its political idealism might be appealing to the Academy in these troubling political times. And, it's worth mentioning that Icelandic cinema is on the rise. Only one Icelandic film has ever received a Foreign Language Film nomination, and that was way back in 1991, but a few Icelandic films have been getting a good reception. In the past three years, two of Iceland's Oscar submissions received U.S. distribution, which is actually a pretty big deal. Perhaps it's Iceland's time for Oscar glory.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Since Cannes, Woman at War hasn't been at any other film festivals, and as strong as word of mouth surrounding the film was, that's not enough to sustain a film's Oscar momentum. ESPECIALLY if that film was screened out of competition and therefore didn't win any official awards. If it had also been screened at Berlin, say, then maybe Woman at War would have been more of a contender, but right now it's a bit of a longshot. It's best hope is going to be if it can do well at the European Film Awards. That's a HUGE Oscar predictor. Last year, the three European nominees for the Oscar were also nominees for Best Film at the EFA's. Those nominations won't be announced for another month, but they're going to rather definitively announce whether Woman at War will be a contender or not.
Film: Donbass
Country: Ukraine
What It's About: The mid-2010s conflict between Ukraine and the Russian-supported Donetsk People's Republic. It's told in thirteen segments.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Again, good buzz out of Cannes should never be discounted. Director Sergei Loznitsa won the Best Director award in the Un Certain Regard section at Cannes, and it received critical acclaim all around. And the fact that a win for this film might piss of Vladimir Putin is probably a bonus.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: It may have gotten acclaim but it was hardly the talk of the festival. Plus the film sounds like a Ken Burns documentary, which might not be the most eye-catching material for the nominating committee in a far less dense field.
Film: Yommedine
What It's About: A leper and his orphaned apprentice leave their leper colony for the first time and embark on a journey across Egypt to search for their families.
Why It Will Be Nominated: The final film in this post to have premiered at Cannes, Yommedine is also the film that I know the least about. But I've included it because it won the Francois Chalais Prize, which rewards "a film dedicated to the values of life affirmation and of journalism." Now that might seem like strange and kind of confusing criteria, but essentially it signifies an important film. Previous winners include Oscar nominee Timbuktu, Oscar winner Son of Saul, and last year's critically acclaimed major Oscar snub BPM (Beats Per Minute). So, on the basis of this prize alone, Yomeddine is on my Oscar radar, and I hope the film gets some attention. It could just maybe score the first ever Oscar nomination for an Egyptian film.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Again, I don't know much about it. And this category has disproportionately ignored African films, which means Yommedine already faces an uphill battle. I hope I'm wrong, though, and would love to see Yommedine gain some momentum.
DARK HORSES:
Film: Champions
What It's About: An ill-mannered basketball coach who, as part of his community service, is ordered to coach a disabled basketball team.
Why It Will Be Nominated: It's rare that a film gets an Academy Award nomination without a pile of festival accolades, but Champions has a lot going for it. The film was a HUGE commercial success in Spain, one of their biggest box office smashes ever, and is probably the only genuine blockbuster on this list. The casting of disabled actors to play disabled characters has earned the film a lot of good attention as well, and elevates the film from your average summer comedy. It's an actually progressive film that's looking to to not only be an Oscar nominee, but could be a surprise box office hit in the U.S. as well.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: The Academy is notorious for not liking comedies, and this category is no exception. A few years ago, the French comedy The Intouchables was expected to be a shoo-in to win this award, and ended up not even getting a nomination (although it is getting an American remake coming out next year with Bryan Cranston and Kevin Hart). Champions doesn't even have the same buzz as The Intouchables has. If it makes the shortlist, then expect Spain to launch a good campaign to get it to score a nomination. But the shortlist is a major hurdle it will have to overcome.
Film: I Am Not a Witch
What It's About: A child accused of witchcraft in Zambia, who is sent to live at a witch's camp.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Unlike every film on this list so far, I've actually SEEN this film, and can attest that it's really good. I think it's a film with a lot of appeal, a quirky indie with fascinating imagery. Surreal and satirical, it has all the makings of a future cult classic. It stays with you. I don't know if it will be nominated, but I'd like it to be.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: It's just not on a lot of peoples' radar. The film has done well critically, but in terms of actual awards, it's best outing for accolades was at last year's British Independent Film Awards, where it racked up an impressive 10 nominations and 3 wins (including one for first-time director Rungano Nyoni). That's fantastic, and certainly earned by the film, but the BIFA's are essentially like the Gotham Awards or the Spirit Awards. It's prestigious, but not exactly a direct channel to Oscar glory.
Film: Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts
What It's About: After a mourning widow kills a gang of thieves (including her would-be rapist), she goes on a journey to the town center and seeks revenge on the gang members who had gotten away,
Why It Will Be Nominated: Like, I Am Not a Witch, I have actually seen this film and it is ABSOLUTELY INCREDIBLE! Seriously, everyone should see this powerful film. This Indonesian feminist revenge Western is powerful, magical, and truly original. There's no way it's not going to be one of my absolute favorite films of the year, and is more than worthy of an Oscar nomination. Plus, it has one of my new favorite film scores (and I'm desperately hoping a soundtrack is released).
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Nobody's really talking about it. It has critical acclaim, but nobody's campaigning for this film, and I've seen no other Oscar odds-betters even mention it. Indonesia hasn't really had success with the Oscars before--they've never even had a film make the shortlist--and it's looking like Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts is going to be similarly ignored. But I encourage everyone to see this film. Really, including it here is wishful thinking that the nominating committee will see this film and fall in love with it like I have. So, it's a major longshot, but a worthy one. But this film is a bold statement from first-time writer and director Mouly Surya, and I can't wait to see what type of film she makes next.
So, where does all this leave us. Who knows? In about a month, a shortlist will be released and it might clear some things up. Nobody knows how long that shortlist will be. Last year it was nine films, but that's not a set number by any means. I wouldn't be surprised if a few submitted films that I've never even heard of make it onto the list: there are always a few upsets in there, but I do expect it to be populated mostly by the films I've mentioned here. The big question, of course, is whether anything can overtake Roma. But this is an especially exciting category this year, and I hope you all join me in watching these films as they're released in the U.S.
