The Best Films of 2016 (so far)

I truly believe that every year in cinema develops its own tone, demonstrating the trend in art for that time. 2016 isn't even half over at this point, but still the general tone of cinema for this year is starting to take shape. And it's pretty exciting. With seven months to go, there have already been multiple films that have taken real risks. From indie films with unusual premises, to groundbreaking major blockbuster releases, to franchise films which have headed in an unexpected direction, to films that have accomplished unprecedented technical feats, the best movies of 2016 haven't just been good, they've been genuinely surprising. And I would say that this trend holds true even for the films I haven't liked so much. The films of 2016 have been inconsistent in terms of quality, but I feel that some of the lesser films I've seen this year at least failed while trying to accomplish something interesting. Perhaps the poster-child for this would be the Miles Davis biopic Miles Ahead. Directed by, written by, and starring Don Cheadle (who does deliver a great performance), the film doesn't even try to fit into any notion of reality, and basically reads as Miles Davis fan fiction. The whole thing is weird and underwhelming, but it is at the very least one of the more original films I've seen in recent years. It's just a shame it doesn't quite live up to the film I imagine Cheadle had in his mind.

But I don't want to talk about the films I didn't like, I want to focus on the film I did like. And there have been quite a few. So without further ado, here's a look at my top fifteen films of the first part of 2016!


#15-High-Rise and #14-The Lobster

Tom Hiddleston broods in an elevator in High-Rise

I didn't intentionally place these two next to each other on my list, but I'm glad that it worked out this way because they are shockingly similar. Both of them feature very pointed yet very broad social commentary, both feature outlandish dystopian societies, They both even feature soundtracks of predominantly classical music. Perhaps most strikingly, both are incredibly violent and difficult to watch. In fact, there were moments in both of these films where I literally shielded my eyes from the screen. High-Rise, for example, starts with a scene of Tom Hiddleston calmly killing and eating a dog, and then just gets more disturbing from there. Hiddleston stars as Robert Laing, a doctor who moves into a high-rise apartment which is divided along social lines, with the upper classes living on the top floors and lower classes living on the bottom. And as the differences between the classes become heightened, drama ensues and eventually the apartment resembles a post-apocalyptic world. The Lobster meanwhile, has an even weirder premise. It takes place in a world where single people of a certain age are brought to a hotel where they have 45 days to find a mate or they will be turned into an animal of their choice. Colin Farrell stars as a man who checks into the hotel with a dog in tow (which used to be his brother). Both films are beautifully made--the visions of directors Ben Wheatley and Yorgos Lanthimos are so abundantly present in their respective films. They're wonderfully executed, and so strange in their own distinct ways that it's impossible to not at least be intrigued about where these films are going to take you. But I do feel that both of them would have ranked higher on my list if they had demonstrated more restraint. Each one starts off with a disturbing presence, and gets exponentially more disturbing with each scene. By the end of each film, they are so far removed from anything resembling our reality that any social commentary the film was trying to make becomes moot.

Colin Farrell and his brother check into their hotel room in The Lobster

For example, I loved the first part of The Lobster for how insightful it was. The world of the hotel was clearly designed to parody the modern dating scene, and it does so with aplomb. But in the second part of the film, the movie ventures to the world outside of the hotel and becomes an entirely different movie, where the chaos of the film's environment overshadows the substance so present in the earlier half of the film. Both of these films, at least on my first viewing, had moments where I felt they gave way to the temptation of shock value, relying on disturbing ideas and images without really using them to make a point. But they earn their places on this list because they both kept me engaged all the way through, and both have some really strong moments. The Lobster in particular, has moments that are sheer brilliance, and I wonder if my estimation of it might rise on later viewings. For now, though, they're solid if uneven films, which easily could have ranked higher on this list in other, weaker years. If nothing else, they deserve to be seen for their sheer ambition and intensity.

#13-Tale of Tales

Salma Hayek takes the phrase "Eat your heart out" too literally in Tale of Tales

Stories like Cinderella, Hansel and Gretel, and Rapunzel are known the world over. And while they are often attributed to the Grimm brothers, the first known appearance of stories like these and many others is in an Italian book called The Pentamerone. And while some stories like the ones I've mentioned have endured, there are also some that never caught on. A new film from Italian director Matteo Garrone brings three of these lesser-known fairy tales to light in Tale of Tales, and that takes the #13 spot on my list. This movie has its flaws to be sure. The three stories are told simultaneously, rather than one at a time, and at times this makes the movie feel unfocused. And the stories highlighted by Garrone are outright bizarre--you understand why they haven't ever gotten their own animated Disney adaptations--and there are moments when you wonder why on earth Garrone thought these stories were essential to tell. But the thrill of this film is that Garrone commits to the stories' true natures. This is the undoubtedly bloodiest fairy tale film ever made, and while I haven't read these stories I imagine they're pretty faithful to the source material's notoriously gorey nature. But it's also the most visually stunning film I've seen this year. Tale of Tales looks like how a fairy tale film should look (I'd love if this small film could somehow be remembered for its costume design come Oscar time). Ultimately, the design elements carry Tale of Tales. For its faults, Tale of Tales really does transport you to another world that is utterly engrossing and a true joy to visit. Plus, I actually think that Garrone does a good job of balancing all three stories. They're equally interesting and so that no single story feels like the weak link compared to the other two. And there are some fun performances here, with standouts being Salma Hayek as a demented queen, Shirley Henderson as a desperate old woman, and Toby Jones as a foolish king who becomes enamored with a flea the size of a horse. Jones probably deserves the most credit for making his scenes with said flea not feel utterly ridiculous.

#12-Hardcore Henry

Critics of Hardcore Henry point to its weak screenplay while fans of it say "WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!"

My personal tastes in film tend to air more towards the artsy and indie. I mean, so far, my "best of" list has featured three films that have hardly had major releases. Which is why I think some might be surprised to see the action film Hardcore Henry take the #12 spot. The film, about a man who wakes up to discover he's been altered to now be a cyberkinetic supersoldier, gained some recognition for its gimmick of being shot entirely from Henry's perspective, in the style of first-person shooter video games. Henry has been critically divisive, with its main detractors feeling that the film lacks any substance and that the gimmick has diminishing returns as the film goes on. And while I don't think these critiques are without merit, when I consider the reaction to this movie, I can't help but think back to the reaction to a more acclaimed film from last year: The Revenant.

Hear me out. Both of these films are low on story, but the story they have is one of revenge (early in the film, Henry's wife is kidnapped and he spends the film trying to find her). Both of them are technical marvels, with harrowing stories about the difficult process of filming. The only difference is that The Revenant had a $135,000,000 budget and lots of awards recognition, while Hardcore Henry had a $2,000,000 budget and a 48% score on Rotten Tomatoes. But I would argue strongly that Hardcore Henry is the superior film. For one thing, it's a lot more enjoyable to watch. But I also think that it succeeds more on a technical level. I don't think that Hardcore Henry is getting its due for how miraculous it is that it has been pulled off. It's not as objectively beautiful as The Revenant, but these action sequences are so meticulously choreographed and the stuntwork is simply incredible. But what impressed me most about Hardcore Henry was the use of sound. The sound editing and sound mixing is off the charts. Because of the way the film is shot, the camera's view is limited, and so the film can't use any of the film editing tricks that are typically used to pull off action sequences. Instead, it relies on sound to make it clear to the audience what's going on. Watch any of the scenes from Hardcore Henry on mute and it'll make no sense, but thanks to this film's brilliant use of sound, you can perfectly follow Henry's actions and movements amongst the chaos of an elaborate action sequence. It's pretty exciting to watch as an audience member, but also as an appreciator of film.

Sharlto Copley in one of the many iterations of Jimmy.

I'd also say that while the first-person gimmick is certainly what makes Hardcore Henry standout, I was pleasantly surprised to see that this film had some other interesting sci-fi elements going on. My favorite element of the film was the character of Jimmy, played by Sharlto Copley in what is actually one of the best performances of the year so far. Slight spoiler here, but Jimmy is a man who can transfer his consciousness to various clones of himself that he has around the city, meaning that on Henry's revenge quest, he is constantly being aided by Jimmy, but always a different clone of Jimmy. Copley does a great job, essentially playing multiple characters and one character all at the same time--making it plausible that each Jimmy is one and the same, while also imbuing each with a distinct personality. I got excited every time a new Jimmy showed up, because it was a delight to see what Copley would do next. Ultimately, I understand why some people disliked Hardcore Henry so much, but I do think it's worth seeing to make the decision for oneself.

#11-The Witch

Ralph Ineson morosely chops wood in The Witch

Horror films are having a bit of a resurgence at the moment. After several years relying on torture porn, jump scares, and found footage, we're finally starting to see the genre return to a level of artistry and restraint that is exciting to see. The past few years have given us multiple films that are destined to become new classics, and joining those ranks is The Witch. It's a bizarre film to be sure, with much of the dialogue being taken directly from historical transcripts from the Salem Witch Trials, but placed in a new context to tell a tightly-contained campfire horror story. Director and writer Robert Eggers makes an incredibly strong debut with The Witch, and shows that he's not concerned with traditional rules of filmmaking, but also that he understands those rules enough to know how to break them. He doesn't like giving his audience any set answers, but also understands that this ambiguity can lead to a wonderful sense of unease. Watching The Witch, you have no idea what's going on, but you know you're scared by it. It's a masterful (and beautifully shot) entry in the new canon of horror movies, and I can't wait to see what Eggers does next (and he's rumored to be working on a remake of the vampire classic Nosferatu).

#10-April and the Extraordinary World

April discovers electricity in the animated sci-fi thriller April and the Extraordinary World

It's going to be an exciting year for animation, with lots of promising animated films in the works. The genre is already off to a strong start with the French-Canadian steampunk sci-fi thriller kids movie April and the Extraordinary World. From the same company that made Persepolis, this is a film that truly understands the possibilities of animation, and uses the medium to its advantage to create a world which, as the title states, is extraordinary. The film exists in an alternate timeline of world history where all the scientists and inventors of the world have mysteriously disappeared, and the existing scientists must live in secret so that they don't meet the same fate. One such scientist is a young woman named April, the last remaining member of her scientist family, who along with a pickpocket and a talking cat discovers where all the scientists have gone. It's a great story--one which involves dragons, mysterious serums, and lots of cameos from famous scientists. It's often very funny, and a lot of fun, but what impressed me the most about the film was the sheer amount of detail that goes into the film's environment. We've seen steampunk movies before, but April and the Extraordinary World is the first one I've seen to actually justify its use of the aesthetic. The thought is that since scientists have all disappeared, electricity was never discovered and so all technological advancements in the world had to progress without it. It didn't get a large release in theaters, but it certainly deserves to be seen.

#9-Elstree 1976

Bored extras lounging around the set of Star Wars, the subject matter of documentary Elstree 1976.

It's tough to know what makes a great documentary. Crafting a documentary is as much of an artform as making a non-documentary film, but quite often, a documentary can get by as long as its chosen subject matter is interesting enough. And that is definitely the case for Elstree 1976. If you haven't heard of it, Elstree 1976 interviews ten actors who played bit parts in the original Star Wars films--everyone from Boba Fett to a rebel pilot to a Stormtrooper responsible for a famous blooper. The commercials bill Elstree 1976 as being about the making of Star Wars and, in part it is. Those who watch it specifically for the Star Wars connection will undoubtedly love hearing the behind-the-scenes stories. But Elstree 1976 is more about the actors than about the franchise they're a part of. We learn about their lives before the film, during the filming, and then after the film's release, and this is what made me love this movie as much as I did. It's not really about Star Wars, it's about these so-called ordinary people, and the care that it takes to tell us their stories is lovely. Elstree 1976 uses the Star Wars connection as an excuse to simply talk about people, and it makes it an incredibly personal film. I also think it's an especially useful film for any actor to see. Many--although not all--of the people they focus on are actors who had various degrees of success, and it's an authentic and frank look at what it's like to struggle in this industry.

#8-Green Room

The unfortunate protagonists of Green Room

Writer and director Jeremy Saulnier is still a relative newcomer to the world of film, but with just three films he has already demonstrated his own style and perspective that is a welcome addition to the horror genre. In his latest, Green Room, a young punk band desperate for a gig (Anton Yelchin, Alia Shawkat, Joe Cole, and Callum Turner) ends up accidentally witnessing a murder in the green room of the venue where they're performing. If that weren't bad enough, the club is run by neo-Nazis. Saulnier's is one of the rare horror directors whose films take place entirely within the realm of reality, with no supernatural elements ever being at play, and this nightmarish cat and mouse game is his most thrilling film to date. It's unrelenting and builds to an unbelievable fever-pitch. Plus the cast is great all around, although the standout is definitely Patrick Stewart as club owner Darcy Banker. Stewart doesn't play villains often, but he takes to it naturally, with his always powerful presence taking on new light in this film.

#7-Captain America: Civil War

Iron Man and War Machine take flight in Captain America: Civil War

 Marvel has done something unprecedented with their films. They've built a strong franchise that truly feels unstoppable, and has proven equally adept at building upon existing properties and introducing new characters. Captain America: Civil War was in a difficult position. After the success of Captain America: The Winter Soldier, it had to continue the tone of that film while incorporating about fifty times as many characters AND setting up at least twelve other films. And it does a great job on all fronts. On its own, it's a solid entry with a great amount of action and drama. What impressed me most about the screenplay is that it manages to remain detached from its central argument. The "civil war" between the Avengers, with a side led by Captain America and Iron Man respectively, is a complex issue, and neither side comes across as distinctly right or wrong. It manages to present both sides as valid, and actually approach the central issue of the film from an interesting philosophical perspective. Even if it weren't about superhero characters, I think this film would have been a solid thriller, with one twist in particular being as well executed as I've ever seen a twist pulled off in film. In the scope of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Captain America: Civil War is equally strong. I had already been excited for the movie Black Panther, but seeing Chadwick Boseman as T'Challa made me even more excited. And I had been skeptical about ANOTHER Spiderman movie, but Tom Holland's take on the character has completely won me over. But what Captain America: Civil War perhaps does best is build upon the relationships between these characters from previous films. The fact that there's so much dramatic material for this franchise to work with now means that these characters are already fully-realized and developed, which means that the film can really delve into their relationships. Captain America: Civil War takes advantage of the framework set forth to create a film that's enjoyable if you've never seen any Marvel film before, but becomes even better if you've seen them all.

#6-Sing Street

Ferdia Walsh-Peelo and Mark McKenna writing songs in Sing Street

I absolutely love John Carney. I truly believe that in his three feature films to date, he has proven better at making movies about music than any other filmmaker in history. His first film, Once, is universally regarded as a masterpiece at this point, and I thought his follow-up Begin Again was an underrated gem. Sing Street has all of the familiar themes from Carney's previous works--music, love, sadness, etc.--but is also his most personal film to date. Based partially on his own childhood, Sing Street follows a kid in Ireland named Conor (newcomer Ferdia Walsh-Peelo) who starts a band at his new school to impress his crush, Raphina (Lucy Boynton). The original music is great, and the songs immediately feel like classics, and still have a sort of rough charm that it feels believable that they were written by talented kids. Perhaps more impressively, the band changes their musical styles as Conor is introduced to new bands by his older brother Brendan (Jack Reynor) so the soundtrack is like a tour through the most popular bands of the 80's. But as great as the music is, the film really excels in its development of the characters and their relationships. One musical number, where Conor fantasizes a Back to the Future-inspired music video for his band, somehow provides some of the best character development of the year in a single scene. And at the heart of the film is the relationship between Conor and Brendan. Reynor steals the entire film as a college dropout coping with his unrealized talent while encouraging his younger brother to explore his separate artistic talents. It's a role that could have easily become a familiar caricature, but Reynor finds new dimensions to go in, and the dynamic between the two brothers is heartbreaking in its tenderness and authenticity.

#5-Deadpool

Deadpool and Negasonic Teenage Warhead have a sensitive heart-to-heart.

As good as Captain America: Civil War was, it's not even my favorite Marvel film of the year. Deadpool is a great superhero film, but as its titular hero constantly reminds us, he's not exactly your average superhero. Where Deadpool excels is in its comedy. This movie is hilarious. Seriously, it can hold its own with some of the all time great comedy films, and certainly ranks as one of the best action comedy films ever made. And it does this by finding its own comedic voice. Not only is it funny, but it has its own comedic voice that really is unlike anything else I've heard in film. I also have to say that I think that Ryan Reynolds deserves a lot of credit for his superb performance. As they've become so popular, comic book movies tend now to attract top talent, and I would say that Marvel movies are usually well acted. But the movies are typically not ABOUT the performances. Chris Evans does a great job as Captain America, for example, but the role isn't being written to showcase his performance, it's being written to serve the franchise as a whole. But with Reynolds, things are different. Not since Robert Downey Jr. in Iron Man has a performer been given such a chance to shine playing a superhero, and Reynolds takes full advantage of it.

#4-The Jungle Book

The best movie villain of 2016 so far is a talking cat.

It has become clear that Disney plans to just keep remaking all of their animated classics into live action films. And while I don't think that this is necessarily a bad idea, it has seemed fairly so far. Their live action Cinderella, for example, was fine but utterly pointless (not to mention pretty and bland). But The Jungle Book was exactly what a live-action adaptation of an animated classic should be. It remains faithful enough to the familiar film to satisfy fans, but also distinctly puts its own spin on it and completely justifies why it deserved to be made. Seeing the film in live action works far better than I ever could have expected, and it's easy to forget that the film is almost entirely computer generated. It's so beautiful to watch, and the CGI so well done that you legitimately feel like you're there in the jungle. And I at least immediately found the talking animals incredibly lifelike and engaging. Perhaps none more so than Shere Khan. Due to the animation, but also due to Idris Elba's commanding vocal performance, Shere Khan is sinister and at times legitimately frightening as the scarred tiger seeking vengeance on humans. And Elba isn't the only strong voiceover performance. Casting Bill Murray as Baloo the sloth bear is both seemingly obvious and also inspired, and Christopher Walken is odd and surprisingly menacing as King Louie the Gigantopithecus. But the smartest thing Disney did was to get Jon Favreau to direct--this is someone who simply understands filmmaking. While The Jungle Book is breaking ground with its visuals, its story is ultimately very simple and Favreau knows how to tell it perfectly, keeping everything balanced.

#3-Zootopia

If Disney hasn't already started working on a Zootopia spinoff called Sloths then I am SO copyrighting that idea right now.

Disney's had a great year, with two films cracking my top five. I was intrigued by The Jungle Book fairly early on, but I will admit that Zootopia took me entirely by surprise. The premise doesn't sound all that original or exciting. "A world where animals can talk." Umm...isn't that most Disney movies? But watching Zootopia it is immediately clear that a lot of work went into this premise. They took the simple concept and ran with it, playing with it in a way that is both detailed and incredibly creative. On top of the world they've set up, the film's screenplay is fantastic. Honestly, you could take the same basic story and plotpoints, cast human actors, and you'd have a thriller that would probably be directed by David Fincher. But the thing that makes Zootopia especially noteworthy--and what everyone has been talking about--is its surprisingly effective tackling of issues of discrimination. What I love about the film is that it keeps its handling of social issues very broad and general. In doing so, it doesn't make its message specific. While most of the articles I've read about Zootopia say it's commenting on racism, I'd actually argue that this film will endure because it can be applied to multiple issues of discrimination in our society. It's not just a great kids' film, it's a great film that happens to be acceptable for kids to watch. If you haven't seen it yet, believe the hype and go watch Zootopia. Even if you're not as impressed by the story as I was, it has so many puns that it simply demands to be seen.

Also, it managed to break practically every record previously held by Frozen. That's right. It defeated Frozen. That earns it several extra points in my book.

#2-10 Cloverfield Lane

2/3 of the cast of the superb 10 Cloverfield Lane

I'm always intrigued by films with a small cast. If you have a limited set of characters and a limiting setting, it forces filmmakers to focus on the characters and story, which ultimately makes a film better. So what intrigued me most about 10 Cloverfield Lane was that it has, for the most part, only three actors. The underrated and always excellent Mary Elizabeth Winstead plays Michelle, a woman who wakes up from a car crash chained to a bed in an unfamiliar basement. The only other people around are Emmett (John Gallagher Jr.), a man with a broken arm, and Howard (John Goodman), the person who is essentially Michelle's captor and who tells her that she can't go outside because there's been a nuclear attack and the air is no longer safe to breathe. From that point, the movie is a constant guessing game. Is Howard lying about the nuclear attack and using it as an excuse for Michelle to not leave? Is he telling the truth and actually did save Michelle's life by keeping her in his basement? Or does he think he's telling the truth but that's just because he's crazy and Emmett and Michelle need to escape now? I don't want to give anything away, because part of the brilliance of this film is that it constantly keeps you guessing. As the film goes along, more information is revealed about where they are and what's around them. More importantly, more information is revealed about each of the characters so that we as audience members are constantly changing our perceptions of the evens we see unfolding. It's one of the most engaging thrillers I've seen in a long time. All three cast members are great. Gallagher Jr. is always an interesting performer, and here he brings a lot of weight to what I imagine is probably the least developed of the three characters at least on the page. Winstead really shines as the film's protagonist and ostensible audience surrogate, and Winstead walks the often difficult line of playing Michelle as not too smart but also not too helpless. We get a capable character who is thrown into an impossible situation, and every action of Winstead's is understandable and clearly portrayed. But the standout is undoubtedly Goodman. This is his best performance since The Big Lebowski, and my favorite performance of the year so far. He is by far the most enigmatic of these three, and our perceptions of him change the most wildly and the most frequently. At times he's fearsome, and the next moment he's sympathetic. He at times comes across as brilliant, and at times as completely delusional. What's most impressive is that, even though the audience's opinion of Howard changes every scene, Goodman's performance remains consistent. This character is so defined that he can remain rock steady even as new information changes our perceptions of him, and his performance somehow always manages to justify whatever the audience's current perception is. His performance brought to mind Kathy Bates' brilliant work as Annie Wilkes in Misery, but it's unfair to compare the two. Howard Stambler is his own distinct character, and Goodman really knocked this role out of the park.

If I had any criticism about 10 Cloverfield Lane, I will say that I found the ending a bit disappointing. It's not a bad ending, but it's certainly not what I would have gone with. But the rest of the film is so strong that it hardly matters, which is why it's so high up on my list and has a good chance of making my top ten list at the end of the year. But there was one film that I liked even more.

#1-Remember

Christopher Plummer and Martin Landau plan an unlikely revenge quest in the thrilling Remember.

Most people haven't heard of Remember. I don't remember seeing it advertised very much, and it came and went while it was in theaters. And that's a shame because it is easily my favorite film that I've seen so far in 2016. All the other films I've mentioned so far were great, but Remember engaged and affected me in a way that none of these other films even came close to. The film follows Zev (Christopher Plummer) an elderly man in an assisted living home whose wife Ruth recently passed away. Zev is approached by Max (Martin Landau, in a rare but very welcome film appearance in his later life), another resident of the home who asks if Zev remembers what he promised to do after Ruth died. Zev, who has dementia, says he doesn't, but Max gives him an envelope and asks him to read it and follow the instructions to the letter. Zev opens the letter to find stacks of money and detailed instructions. Following them he exits the home and gets into a cab that is waiting for him. And I don't want to say anything else because I hope that this beginning has gotten you intrigued to see this movie for yourself. But it's going to go to some really interesting places. When I've recommended it to people, which I've done often, I describe it as a cross between Kill Bill, Memento, and Schindler's List. So try to imagine that and this might give you some inkling of what Remember might be like.

What you might not be prepared for is simply how exciting it gets. Christopher Plummer isn't the first actor who comes to mind when you think "revenge thriller," but Oscar-nominated director Atom Egoyan and screenwriter Benjamin August use that unpredictability to their advantage. At one point, Zev stays in a hotel in room 238, an obvious reference to The Shining. At first, I thought this was an odd reference to sneak into the film, considering that Remember seemingly has little to do with the supernatural forces at work in The Shining. But by the end of the film I understood. This film may not deal with forces from another world, but it manages to extract thrills and horror from parts of our own reality, and somehow manages to craft moments that at once feel surreal and all too realistic. At times it's like a trip to the twilight zone. And, of course, it features some incredible performances. Plummer is brilliant in the main role. Seriously, considering this and his Oscar-winning work in Beginners, I actually think he's doing the best work of his career in his later life. And the supporting performances are great too. Landau is excellent, and Breaking Bad's Dean Norris practically steals the movie in a single nail-biting scene playing a brutish cop who's a proud member of the American Nazi party. I honestly cannot recommend Remember enough. See it if you can--it deserves so much more attention that it initially received.

Dean Norris menacing Christopher Plummer in Remember.

And there you have it, my picks for the top fifteen films of the first part of 2016! It's already been a great year, so I can't wait to see what not-yet-released films can top these selections. What are some of your favorite films of the year so far? Did I miss any of your favorites? Which films are you most excited to see that are coming soon? Let me know in the comments!

I Try To Predict the 2017 Oscar Nominees Because I'm Insane

Well, another Oscar season is done. After all my analysis, and all of my hard work, I ended up predicting two thirds of the Oscar winners correctly, and I wear my "barely passing" badge with pride. Of a more pressing concern, the end of the Oscars means that I must once again try to come up with content that's not related to the 88th Academy Awards.

So let's talk about the 89th Academy Awards.

That's right, about a year in advance, I'm going to foolishly attempt to predict the nominees for next year's Oscars. At this time, film distributors are already thinking about next year's Oscar campaigns, and there are always lots of films that, on paper, are already clearly going to be contenders. At this point last year, people were already guessing that Bridge of Spies, The Revenant, and ultimate Best Picture winner Spotlight were going to be nominated for Best Picture. At the same time, Room was seen as a long shot, and absolutely no one would have expected Mad Max: Fury Road's Oscar dominance. Plus, there were plenty of films that, at this time of the year, seemed like Oscar gold but which ultimately fizzled out, such as Suffragette, Freeheld, and Concussion. Most amusingly for me, the film Sea of Trees, starring Matthew McConaughey, was being considered a major Oscar contender at this time last year...until it got booed at Cannes and will probably never get a theatrical release.

So, what I'm saying is that I in no way expect these predictions to be accurate, but it's fun to speculate. Some of the films I mention are going to inevitably end up being terrible, and some might not even be released this year. And there are going to be plenty of movies which come into play during the awards season that no one has even heard of yet. Basically, if these predictions end up being way off, I'm saying that you should cut me some slack, but if they end up being accurate, you should immediately accept that I am a wizard with intense psychic powers. It's win win! And without any further ado, let's dive into this ridiculous experiment and see my super early predictions for the 89th Academy Awards!

BEST PICTURE:

After a strong reception at Sundance, The Birth of a Nation has become the early "film to beat" for the 89th Academy Awards.

Two titles emerged out of the Sundance Film Festival with lots of buzz: Nat Turner biopic The Birth of a Nation and Kenneth Lonergan's drama Manchester by the Sea. Given the acclaim both of these received, they seem like pretty safe bets for the Oscars race, and especially in the light of the recent #OscarsSoWhite controversy, I imagine The Birth of a Nation will be particularly well-received. Another indication of a strong Oscar contender is pedigree, and Martin Scorsese, Clint Eastwood, Ang Lee, and Woody Allen all have offerings this year. Eastwood in particular has an Oscar-friendly film with Sully, starring Tom Hanks portraying famous hero pilot Chesley Sullenberger. Lee's entry this year is based on a novel, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk, and could benefit from the sense that Lee is overdue (despite winning Best Director twice, none of his films have ever won Best Picture). Woody Allen has been pretty hit and miss with the Oscars recently, but his film Cafe Society might be a dark horse contender. Scorsese's upcoming Silence is also a likely nominee, considering that anything he directs is automatically going to be on the Academy's radar (that Hugo scored a Best Picture nomination is proof of that). Speaking of Hugo, I think that we might once again see a children's movie score a Best Picture nomination because of its director next year. The BFG, directed by Steven Spielberg, looks like it could be really fantastic. And if that doesn't perform as well as I'm expecting, I also see Jon Favreau's The Jungle Book as a potential contender, as that also looks like it could be excellent.

A title that has been getting a lot of attention is Passengers, a sci-fi film from The Imitation Game's director Morten Tyldum starring Oscar favorite Jennifer Lawrence and everybody favorite Chris Pratt. There's also a lot of buzz about The Light Between Oceans, based on the novel of the same name starring Michael Fassbender and recent Oscar winner Alicia Vikander. There are high hopes for two historical drama romances, the first being A United Kingdom about a British woman (Rosamund Pike) who marries the ruler of Botswana (David Oyelowo). The second is The Promise, where a love triangle forms between Christian Bale, Oscar Isaac, and Charlotte Le Bon during the last days of the Ottoman Empire. One of my more anticipated films this year is La La Land, a musical directed by Whiplash's Damien Chazelle which stars Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone. Two years ago, Whiplash came out of nowhere to be a formidable Oscar film, and I think a musical could be right up his alley considering the musical emphasis in Whiplash, and an earlier obscure film of Chazelle's called Grand Piano.

There's also the usual Oscar buzz surrounding movies about historical figures. Lyndon B. Johnson has become a surprisingly popular figure recently and is going to be played by Woody Harrelson in the film LBJ, directed by Rob Reiner. Oliver Stone is also hoping for Oscar glory with Snowden, a film which was initially going to be released this year, but was pushed back (presumably because Stone hadn't finished it yet). The Oscars love literary adaptations, which could bode well for The Girl on the Train and The Sense of an Ending, and the Academy loves movies about issues, which might scores a point for Miss Sloane, a movie about gun control starring Jessica Chastain. Chastain is also in another potential Oscar contender, The Zookeeper's Wife, which is directed by Whale Rider's Niki Caro.

Lastly there are some wild cards. If Finding Dory is as strong a Pixar sequel as Toy Story 3, it could easily be nominated. Denis Villeneuve's sci-fi film Story of Your Life could be a surprise critical success, as could Money Monster, a thriller directed by Jodie Foster. Michael Keaton has starred in the last two Best Picture winners, and he's back this year in The Founder, a biopic about the founder of McDonald's. And the last film that's currently on my Oscar radar is Deep Water, based on a documentary, which will follow Colin Firth as he sails around the world.

AND THE NOMINEES WILL BE:
The Birth of a Nation
Manchester by the Sea
Silence
Sully
La La Land
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
The BFG 
The Light Between Oceans
A United Kingdom
Passengers

BUT THEY ALSO MIGHT BE:
The Promise
LBJ
Finding Dory
Miss Sloane
The Sense of an Ending
The Founder
Money Monster
The Jungle Book
The Zookeeper's Wife
Story of Your Life
Snowden
The Girl on the Train
Cafe Society
Deep Water


BEST DIRECTOR:

Clint Eastwood having a chat with Tom Hanks while filming Sully.

Considering the typical overlap between this category and Best Picture, the contenders are very much the same in this category so I won't go into as much detail. In fact, the only director I've listed whose film I DIDN'T list in the Best Picture category is the great Pedro Almodovar, who scored a surprise Best Director nomination for Talk to Her, and will be back this year with a film called Julieta. Obviously big names like Scorsese, Eastwood, Lee, and Spielberg are going to be in play, but the Academy also does like newcomers, so I think that Nate Parker and Damien Chazelle both have a good chance of scoring their first nominations. There's also been a lot of talk about how so few women have been nominated for this award, and there are several prominent female directors who should hopefully be a part of the conversation this year. Jodie Foster is stepping behind the camera for Money Monster. There's also Niki Caro, whose film Whale Rider was a surprise hit years ago, and who hasn't really made a major feature film since, but might be back with The Zookeeper's Wife. Lastly, there's Amma Asante, who is a relative newcomer (although she directed Belle from a couple years ago) whose work on A United Kingdom puts her in the position to potentially be the first woman of color to be nominated in this category.

AND THE NOMINEES WILL BE:
Nate Parker: The Birth of a Nation
Martin Scorsese: Silence
Ang Lee: Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Damien Chazelle: La La Land
Clint Eastwood: Sully 
 
BUT THEY ALSO MIGHT BE:
Steven Spielberg: The BFG
Amma Asante: A United Kingdom
Morten Tyldum: Passengers
Kenneth Lonergan: Manchester by the Sea
Derek Cianfrance: The Light Between Two Oceans
Jodie Foster: Money Monster
Denis Villeneuve: Story of Your Life
James Marsh: Deep Water
Niki Caro: The Zookeeper's Wife
Oliver Stone: Snowden
John Madden: Miss Sloane
Rob Reiner: LBJ
Ritesh Batra: The Sense of an Ending
Pedro Almodovar: Julieta
Woody Allen: Cafe Society
  
BEST ACTOR:

I have high hopes for the musical La La Land, starring Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone.

The best indicator we have to go on is that this category tends to reward portrayals of real people. For the past three years, four of the five nominated performances have been based on actual people (compared to, in those same years, a maximum of two nominees being based on real people in the Best Actress category). That bodes well for Tom Hanks in Sully, Woody Harrelson in LBJ, Nate Parker in The Birth of a Nation, and David Oyelowo in A United Kingdom. This could also be good for Joseph Gordon-Levitt in Snowden, although the film's pushed back release date worries me, which is why I've ranked it lower than I think most oddsmakers would. Other portrayals of real people include Colin Firth in Deep Water, although the film seems like it's going to be pretty small scale and is a longshot to be a major player at this point. There's also Don Cheadle as Miles Davis in Miles Ahead, but the initial reaction to this film has been decidedly muted which could hurt his chances.

Someone who has gotten a far stronger initial reaction to their performance is Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea, who seems likely to be in the conversation here, as early buzz from Sundance has put him in a great position for the awards season. If The Light Between Oceans and La La Land do as well as I think they will, we might see nominations for their leading men, Michael Fassbender and Ryan Gosling respectively, both of whom have been nominated before but not won. If The Promise does well, then it could potentially have two actors in the running: Christian Bale and Oscar Isaac. One of them might be moved to the supporting category, but it's hard to tell which one that would be. Martin Scorsese has had a good track record with performers getting nominations, and Silence star Andrew Garfield is certainly talented enough to potentially earn his first nomination after being snubbed for The Social Network. Meanwhile, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk stars a complete unknown named Joe Alwyn, who might be a surprise entrant should the movie do as well as expected.

The Sense of an Ending and Money Monster are wild cards, but if they gain momentum after their releases, there might be buzz for their stars (Jim Broadbent and George Clooney, respectively). We also have Michael Shannon as a father who discovers his son has superpowers in the soon to be released indie sci-fi flick Midnight Special. It's not typical Oscar fare, but this role could really speak to Shannon's significant strengths and could build momentum if it is well received. There's also Lion, where Dev Patel plays a man trying to locate his adopted parents. Very little is known about it at this point, so it's not on anyone's radar, but I feel it could potentially be an awards season dark horse. Lastly, let's take a look at the two children's movies which I've said could be Oscar contenders. The Jungle Book star Neel Sethi might be a breakout star, although the Oscar track record with child actors is decidedly iffy. There's also Mark Rylance in The BFG. Fresh off his Oscar win for Bridge of Spies, Rylance definitely has the Academy's attention and might be the first motion-capture performance to receive a nomination if the Academy is willing to consider it.

AND THE NOMINEES WILL BE:
Tom Hanks: Sully
Casey Affleck: Manchester by the Sea
Nate Parker: The Birth of a Nation
Woody Harrelson: LBJ
Ryan Gosling: La La Land
 
BUT THEY ALSO MIGHT BE:
Andrew Garfield: Silence
Michael Fassbender: The Light Between Oceans
David Oyelowo: A United Kingdom
Oscar Isaac: The Promise
Christian Bale: The Promise
Joe Alwyn: Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Jim Broadbent: The Sense of an Ending
Colin Firth: Deep Water
Michael Shannon: Midnight Special
George Clooney: Money Monster
Joseph Gordon-Levitt: Snowden
Don Cheadle: Miles Ahead
Dev Patel: Lion
Neel Sethi: The Jungle Book
Mark Rylance: The BFG


BEST ACTRESS:

Meryl Streep might score an incredible 20th Academy Award nomination this year for Florence Foster Jenkins

The Best Actress category is almost always more difficult to predict than the Best Actor category, as the nominees tend to fit into less of a seemingly concrete mold. It's rare that a dark horse nominee makes it into Best Actor, but the Best Actress category often has one or two in contention (like Charlotte Rampling this year, or Marion Cotillard last year). That's why my predictions here are focusing on some more unconventional Oscar movies, such as perennial nominees Jennifer Lawrence and Amy Adams in the sci-fi movies Passengers and Story of Your Life. It's also never wise to bet against Meryl Streep, and she's back in the race this year playing notoriously awful opera "singer" Florence Foster Jenkins in a movie accurately named Florence Foster Jenkins. This role has the potential to be akin to her portrayal of Julia Child, and might earn her another record-making Oscar nomination in turn.

On the more conventional side, we see Alicia Vikander in The Light Between Two Oceans, Emma Stone in La La Land, and Rosamund Pike in A United Kingdom. All of them have been nominated before, and all are in films which seem like they could be in the Academy's favor. We also have Emily Blunt in The Girl on the Train and Rampling in The Sense of an Ending--both literary adaptations which might end up being awards season favorites far more than I've predicted. Jessica Chastain, who was last nominated for Zero Dark Thirty, stars in both Miss Sloane and The Zookeeper's Wife, and either one could end up getting her recognition again this year.

On the wild card side, we have the young Ruby Barnhill in The BFG, although again the Academy's record with child actors is dodgy. Natalie Portman is playing Jackie Kennedy in a movie called Jackie, but it's unseen at the moment if that movie will even be finished in time for the Oscars next year. Another movie that could potentially do better than I'm expecting is Hidden Figures, the true story of the black, female mathematicians who were responsible for the launch and safe return of astronaut John Glenn. Even less is known about this movie than the others I've mentioned, which is why I'm not discussing it more, but I'm hoping that this film ends up being a surprise hit, and if it's successful, there might be Oscar nominations in the works for Taraji P. Henson and Octavia Spencer. Lastly, there's Naomie Harris, who I thought should have been a supporting actress contender for her work in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, and who's starring in Moonlight, based on a play by Tarell Alvin McCraney.

AND THE NOMINEES WILL BE:
Jennifer Lawrence: Passengers
Meryl Streep: Florence Foster Jenkins
Amy Adams: Story of Your Life
Alicia Vikander: The Light Between Oceans
Emma Stone: La La Land
 
BUT THEY ALSO MIGHT BE:
Emily Blunt: The Girl on the Train
Rosamund Pike: A United Kingdom
Jessica Chastain: Miss Sloane
Jessica Chastain: The Zookeeper's Wife
Natalie Portman: Jackie
Ruby Barnhill: The BFG
Taraji P. Henson: Hidden Figures
Octavia Spencer: Hidden Figures
Charlotte Rampling: The Sense of an Ending
Naomie Harris: Moonlight

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR & ACTRESS:

Patrick Stewart has early buzz for his performance in Green Room.

The supporting categories are a lot harder to assess this early on. It's far more likely for an unexpected entry to emerge here thanks to a scene-stealing performance (for example, absolutely no one could have predicted that Sylvester Stallone would have been nominated at this time last year). Plus, it's not even clear who actually is a supporting role, and many of the names I mentioned above could show up in the supporting categories as well. Ultimately the sheer volume of supporting roles makes the data impossible to analyze, even by the standards of this post. All of the predictions I'm making are wild guesses, but the guesses for these categories are especially uneducated.

When I look at the movies I think will be major contenders for Best Picture, many of them have star-studded casts and it's tough to know how big of a role each person will be playing. Still, a few names stuck out to me as ones to watch. On the men's side, I have high hopes for Richard Jenkins, who's playing Senator Richard Russell, Lyndon Johnson's mentor and then chief opposition in LBJ. He always does good work, and I feel like depending on the script he might steal the whole film. There's also Adam Driver, who has continued to grow more and more popular, and might score his first Oscar nomination for Silence. I also think that Jeremy Renner might be a contender for Story of Your Life should the movie receive sufficient Oscar buzz, as in American Hustle, he already proved a capable co-star for Amy Adams. Some people are also mentioning Kyle Chandler in Manchester by the Sea, which is definitely a possibility, but from the film's description it sounds like he might have too small of a role so I'm leaving him off of my list for now.

The supporting categories often feature a wider variety of roles, as the more quirky or unconventional performances tend to do better here than in the leading category. In particular, this category seems to be quite fond of villains, which explains the wins for Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight, Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds, and J.K. Simmons in Whiplash to name a few. This year, I think that there's potential for Jack O'Connell in Money Monster. O'Connell got lots of attention two years ago for giving two really strong performances in a really great movie called Starred Up, and a not so great movie called Unbroken. This year, he's in Money Monster where he plays a man who takes a Jim Cramer-esque TV financial guru hostage after losing everything following the man's advice. It's a role that seems destined to be both menacing and sympathetic, which the Oscars tend to reward. Another villain in contention is Patrick Stewart in Green Room, who has never been nominated for an Oscar before. Although the film won't have a public release until April, the early buzz on his performance as the leader of a gang of white supremacists has been incredibly positive, and reminds me of the kind of buzz that Simmons had for Whiplash two years ago. Considering how rarely the Academy recognizes horror films, I don't think Green Room will be talked about too much in other categories, but Stewart's performance seems like the early frontrunner.

In her first awards bait role since 12 Years a Slave, Lupita Nyong'o might rejoin the Oscars conversation for Queen of Katwe.

On the women's side, the closest thing to a frontrunner we have right now is Laura Linney in Sully, playing the wife of pilot Chesley Sullenberger. We don't know yet how big her role actually will be, but assuming her role is more than a glorified cameo, she will likely be considered. I also think that Rachel Weisz might have a shot for The Light Between Oceans, especially if the leading performances from Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander get the attention I think they will. Depending on how big of a role she has, there's also nominee potential for Michelle Williams in Manchester by the Sea. Next there's Melissa Leo and Shailene Woodley, both in Snowden. I haven't ranked Snowden too highly in any of the other categories, and I might very well be underestimating its chances, but at the moment, I think that Leo or Woodley might be the film's best shot at a nomination. Of the two, the one I'm giving the edge to is Woodley. I obviously know nothing of their roles, and Leo is always incredible, but Woodley's nomination feels like it's a long time coming as a string of solid performances has marked her as a rising Hollywood star. I think she was snubbed in this category a few years ago when she was the only good part of Best Picture nominee The Descendants. The last supporting actress who really stood out to me as a potential contender was Lupita Nyong'o in a movie called Queen of Katwe, where she'll be playing the mother of a Ugandan chess prodigy. Chess movies tend to not do very well at the Oscars (like this year's Pawn Sacrifice) because as exciting as chess can be to play, it's somewhat difficult to make dramatically interesting. But After Nyong'o's previous win in this category, this will hopefully be the role that puts her back into awards consideration.

Best Supporting Actor:
AND THE NOMINEES MIGHT BE:
Patrick Stewart: Green Room
Richard Jenkins: LBJ
Adam Driver: Silence
Jack O'Connell: Money Monster
Jeremy Renner: Story of Your Life

Best Supporting Actress:
AND THE NOMINEES MIGHT BE:
Laura Linney: Sully
Rachel Weisz: The Light Between Oceans
Michelle Williams: Manchester by the Sea
Shailene Woodley: Snowden
Lupita Nyong'o: Queen of Katwe



So, those are my thoughts. I must admit, I'm kind of curious to look back on this in a year and see which of these predictions were spot on, and which ones were just completely off base. Is there an upcoming movie that you think I should have included? And of the movies I've mentioned is there one you're particularly excited for? Let me know in the comments!

2016 Oscar Predictions: Part 2

Here's the second batch of my Oscar predictions. If you haven't yet, be sure to check out Part 1 here.

Although most people are familiar with the nominees for things like Best Picture or Best Actor or Actress, far fewer seem to care about things like sound mixing or production design. And that’s a shame, because the talents in these fields deserve just as much recognition and are critical to a film’s success. And if you’re participating in an Oscar ballot, it’s worth noting that the “big” awards make up less than half of the categories. Everyone can predict that Leonardo DiCaprio will win, but not as many are up to date on who the frontrunners are for best Documentary Short Subject. Never fear! I’m here to give a rundown of my predictions for these categories too!

I’ll start with the short films. I say this every year, but if you have an opportunity to see these, please do yourself a favor and check them out! I look forward to the short selections every year, and often they’re brilliant. And some of them are available online! You can watch World of Tomorrow, Chau Beyond the Lines, and Last Day of Freedom on Netflix, and can check out We Can’t Live Without Cosmos here.

Awww! Look at these two friends from the movie Shok! They're having so much fun and I bet nothing terrible happens to either of them at all! Wh...what do you mean this is a war movie?

Best Live Action Short:

Nominees:

Ave Maria

Day One

Everything Will Be Okay

Shok

Stutterer

This is probably the weakest of the shorts categories this year. While all ten of the nominees in the other categories are excellent, the live action shorts have two films which I think are somewhat weak. The frontrunner, according to most experts, is Ave Maria, but this is primarily because it won the top award at Cannes. However, I didn't find it nearly as funny as I think it was trying to be, and it came across as really lightweight to me. Despite what the experts say, I can't understand how this one would possibly win amongst voters who have seen all the entries. It was this same gut instinct which allowed me to correctly pick Helium to win over the heavily favored The Voorman Problem in this category two years ago. So, if you want to trust the experts, go with Ave Maria, but I simply don't see it being named the best out of this group. That being said, it's not the worst of the nominees--that would be Day One, which was downright bad. But the other three nominees are all great, and I could see any of them winning. Shok, the tragic story of two young friends during the Kosovo War, is well done and I could see generating lots of votes, and a lot of what I've read online seems to think this is the frontrunner. But for me, it's only the third best. If I were giving out this award, it would be a tough race between Everything Will Be Okay and Stutterer. Everything Will Be Okay is a German film about a divorced father who goes to extremes to spend time with his daughter. It's devastating, and one of the most powerful films of the year. By contrast, Stutterer is a charming and quirky film about a typographer who tries to overcome his profound stutter to form a connection with those around him. Both are really well done, and I could easily see Stutterer gaining a lot of votes because of how enjoyable it is. But, I have to give the edge to Everything Will Be Okay. This film is heartbreaking, and stayed with me far longer than any of the other nominees, thanks especially to the wonderful performances of Simon Schwarz and Julia Pointner as a father and daughter.

Will Win: Everything Will Be Okay
But Don't Count Out: Stutterer, Shok, Ave Maria
Should Win: Everything Will Be Okay

World of Tomorrow is not just my favorite short film of the year, I think it's one of the best works of sci-fi in film history.

Best Animated Short:

Nominees:

Bear Story

Prologue

Sanjay’s Super Team

We Can’t Live Without Cosmos

World of Tomorrow

This is an excellent lineup. In past years, I’ve always felt there were one or two weaker entries, but all five of these films have a lot of merit. Even my least favorite nominee, Bear Story—a story within a story about a bear who is taken from his family to work in the circus—is beautifully done and better than the majority of nominees in the past few years. I also like these nominees because each one is so different. Sanjay’s Super Team, Pixar’s offering this year, is an adorable story of a young boy who uses his imagination to combine his favorite TV show—Super Team—with the Hindu traditions his father attempts to teach him. This cute and appealing short couldn’t be more difficult from Prologue, which has to have a warning before it’s played due to its graphic content, depicting an incredibly violent fight between two pairs of roaming savages. It packs the same brutal devastation of, say, The Revenant, but I would argue with greater effect due to its short runtime and the beauty of its simplistic pencil animation. Then there’s We Can’t Live Without Cosmos, a Russian short about the relationship between two astronauts training for a space mission. At times funny, at times heartbreaking, it’s an incredibly poetic and touching short. Any other year, I would have named We Can’t Live Without Cosmos the clear winner…but this year had World of Tomorrow. Ever since it premiered at Sundance, there has been buzz surrounding this movie that short films don’t usually receive, and with good reason. World of Tomorrow is on another level. It’s unlike anything else, featuring a brilliant script that runs a full gamut of ideas and emotions. All the films are great, but World of Tomorrow is transcendent.

It’s hard for me to imagine World of Tomorrow not winning, and it’s widely seen as the favorite. But I suppose there is an outside chance that the somewhat more conventional and still excellent Cosmos could take the title away. And then it’s difficult to completely count out Pixar, but as good as Sanjay’s Super Team is, if it wins then it has everything to do with studio interference as opposed to artistic merit. And usually this category is able to stay out of those sorts of politics.

Will Win: World of Tomorrow

But Don’t Count Out: We Can’t Live Without Cosmos, Sanjay’s Super Team

Last Day of Freedom, an animated documentary, plays with the format to create an unforgettable short film.

Best Documentary Short:

Nominees:

Body Team 12

Chau, Beyond the Lines

Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

Last Day of Freedom

Another great lineup, just like with the animated shorts, all five of these are excellent and all five are quite different. This category is almost always incredibly depressing, and this year is no exception, although despite the difficult subject matter, all five are engaging and compelling to watch. The most upbeat is probably Chau, Beyond the Lines, about a young Vietnamese artist who is disabled due to the effects of Agent Orange, but is pursuing his dream of being a painter. It’s a great portrait of a fascinating artist, much like Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah, which profiles the later life of Lanzmann, best known for directing the 10-hour cinematic masterpiece Shoah. While those two films are about people, the other three are more about ideas, and are what I see as the three frontrunners in the category. Body Team 12 is by far the shortest of the films, and takes a look at the only woman in Body Team 12, responsible for removing the bodies of Ebola victims in Liberia. A Girl in the River is about 19-year-old Saba Qaiser, who survived an honor killing in Pakistan. The film looks at Qaiser harrowing and brave story, while also examining the terrifying practice of honor killings and the culture that surrounds them. Last Day of Freedom is, surprisingly, an animated film, utilizing an interview with Bill Babbitt, who tells the story of his brother Manny who was executed on death row. The film is deeply personal, and is in equal parts about the relationship Bill had with his brother and some of the numerous flaws with our justice system. These last three films all tell great stories, and all inspire deserved outrage about their topics of choice.

I could see any of these five winning, but I think the most likely winner is A Girl in the River. It’s the only one of these titles which has received more widespread attention thanks to its distributor (both it and Claude Lanzmann are produced by HBO) and the film’s release has already been inspiring change in the Pakistani government to end the practice of honor killings. That’s pretty powerful stuff. But, my favorite is Last Day of Freedom. At first I thought the animation might be unnecessary, but it ended up being incredibly effective and interesting. What I think sets this one apart from the others for me is just how personal it is. It doesn’t feel like a documentary, it feels like we’re taking a look at Bill’s soul. The issues that it highlights are important, and essential to discuss, but ultimately, it’s a movie about the relationship between two brothers, and due to its personal nature, it affected me in a way that the other films simply weren’t able to.

Will Win: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

But Don’t Count Out: Any of them. It’s a strong field, and any of them could win, but I guess the most likely upset might be Body Team 12.

Should Win: Last Day of Freedom

Film scholars agree that the film editing in Mad Max: Fury Road was "awesome as fuck."

Best Film Editing:

Nominees:

The Big Short

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Spotlight

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Now we're moving back to the world of feature films to focus on the technical awards, starting with Best Film Editing. More often than not, this category goes hand in hand with the winner for Best Picture. And yet, of these five films, Best Picture frontrunner Spotlight is the one where the editing is the least apparent. The other four nominees here simply have more editing going on, and therefore are more likely winners. I hate that The Big Short is nominated here, because I found the editing really distracting and sloppy. And I don’t think that Star Wars will be able to win, as in the past twenty years, there have only been four winners in this category which have not been Best Picture nominees. That leaves The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road. This final two is hardly surprising. They’re the two most nominated films this year, and it’s likely that the two of them will absolutely dominate all of the technical categories. You’re going to see these titles a lot in the rest of this blog post. Really, the biggest question mark of the night is whether these films will split the technical awards, or whether one film will sweep the awards over the other. Personally, I think that for this category, the much faster pace and more frequent use of quick cuts makes Mad Max both the likely, and the more deserving winner in this particular category.

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

But Don’t Count Out: The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki is going for his third consecutive win. And he didn't have to eat a single raw animal heart to do it.

Best Cinematography:

Nominees:

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Sicario

There could potentially be a surprising spoiler with Sicario, if only because the nominee is Roger Deakins, who has been nominated twelve times previously and never won. But, barring the Academy throwing an overdue bone to Deakins, we can again pretty much assume that this category will come down to The Revenant or Mad Max: Fury Road. While I personally thought that the camera work of Mad Max was truly spectacular, pretty much everyone agrees that this award will go to The Revenant. And that’s hard to argue with—even those like myself who didn’t love the film will agree that the cinematography was gorgeous. Also, if The Revenant wins, it will mean an unprecedented three consecutive wins for cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki, who has already taken home back-to-back trophies for his work on Gravity and Birdman the past two years.

Will Win: The Revenant

But Don’t Count Out: Mad Max: Fury Road, Sicario

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Which Production Design nominee should I post. How about Bridge of Spies? No one's talking about Bridge of Spies. Cheer up, Bridge of Spies--I haven't forgotten you! Keep your chin up, you're directed by Spielberg!

Best Production Design:

Nominees:

Bridge of Spies

The Danish Girl

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Production design basically deals with all of the elements of how a film looks. Does the film achieve a certain aesthetic? You have the production design department to thank! Personally, I thought that the two standouts out of these nominees were Mad Max: Fury Road and The Martian, but it is very rare for this category to not go to a period piece like the other three nominees, which means that my favorites are at a bit of a disadvantage. Instead, I think The Revenant and its almost ghostly, naturally-lit color palette is going to take this award home, but don’t count out The Danish Girl which has the most period-piecey feel of these five.

Will Win: The Revenant

But Don’t Count Out: The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

How far have Visual Effects come? If Maz had been in the original Star Wars films, she would have just been the actress Linda Hunt spray painted yellow.

Best Visual Effects:

Nominees:

Ex Machina

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

I’m so happy that Ex Machina managed to score a nomination! It’s the little film that could, amongst some much bigger titles, all of which operated with a far bigger budget. Unfortunately, while the visual effects are really well done in both Ex Machina and The Martian, they’re not quite as flashy as the other three nominees, and so they’re kind of out of the running. Star Wars and Mad Max are the two juggernauts, and either could easily take this, but I think that the widely known reliance on practical effects over CGI in Mad Max is going to put it over the edge. That is, unless The Revenant can ride the much talked about CGI bear scene all the way to the Oscar podium.

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

But Don’t Count Out: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

The old age makeup in The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared is really impressive and also has no chance against two movies that people have actually heard of.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Nominees:

The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

The two films competing for all of the technical awards are here once again nominated, and are somewhat amusingly joined by probably one of the least recognizable titles of the year. If you’re wondering, The 100-Year-Old-Man is a Swedish comedy, and one character spends more than half of the movie in what seems to be very convincing old age makeup. Certainly impressive, but there’s no way it or The Revenant can compete with the out of this world makeup design in Mad Max: Fury Road. I don’t even know what The Revenant is doing here, although I guess it had some fake blood and bruises and stuff?

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

But Don’t Count Out: Johnny Depp appearing on stage in his makeup from Black Mass and burgling the award from the Mad Max team.

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

One of the many incredible and intricate costumes from Crimson Peak, which was somehow not nominated even though EVERY SINGLE COSTUME IN THIS FILM WAS A WORK OF ART AND HOW THE FUCK DID IT NOT GET A NOMINATION?! I WILL NEVER UNDERSTAND THIS!

Best Costume Design:

Nominees:

Carol

Cinderella

The Danish Girl

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Rather amazingly, this is a category where Mad Max and The Revenant might NOT win, as this category tends to go for pretty rather than gritty. Although Mad Max is still a strong contender and shouldn’t be counted out, I think there’s a good chance that the Oscar will go to three-time Oscar-winner Sandy Powell, who is in contention for both Carol and Cinderella this year (she must really like Cate Blanchett). Of the two, I think that the stylish costumes in Carol might have an edge—they’re pretty, but they’re also restrained and elegant in a way that the Cinderella weren’t.

Will Win: Carol

But Don’t Count Out: Mad Max: Fury Road, Cinderella

Should Win: Carol

I couldn't find a picture of Demian Bichir playing the piano from The Hateful Eight. That would have been such a perfect picture for Best Original Score, but...oh well. Here's another still from The Hateful Eight. I know it has nothing to do with the score, though, and I'm sorry I've let all my readers down.

Best Original Score:

Nominees:

Bridge of Spies

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

This is actually a really exciting category this year. Veteran film composer Carter Burwell, who has scored countless films, has finally received his first ever nomination for Carol, which is great! But the excitement around Burwell is overshadowed by the inclusion of two genuine legends. Ennio Morricone and John Williams, both octogenarians, are two of the most iconic film composers in the business, and are proving that they’re still more than capable of producing great work with The Hateful Eight and Star Wars: The Force Awakens respectively. They’re the two frontrunners not just because of how beloved they are, but because they did genuinely create the two best scores this year. While it’s hard to bet against Williams, I think that Morricone will take home his first ever Oscar for his brilliant and mysterious score for The Hateful Eight.

Will Win: The Hateful Eight

But Don’t Count Out: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Should Win: The Hateful Eight

What's that? You don't care about sound editing? Well, without sound editing there would be no flamethrowing guitar so maybe you should care about it a little bit more! Didn't think of that, did you?

Best Sound Editing:

Nominees:

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Once again, Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant are major contenders here, although Star Wars: The Force Awakens shouldn’t be counted out. Given the film’s overwhelming success, it’s like the Academy might want to give it something, and one of these categories would be its best shot at joining the winner’s circle. So, this category is definitely up in the air, but it’s just too hard to bet against Mad Max in any of these technical categories.

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

But Don’t Count Out: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Bridge of Spies, the only sound mixing nominee not also nominated for sound editing. The sound editors for this film must really feel like they dropped the ball.

Best Sound Mixing:

Nominees:

Bridge of Spies

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

My reasoning here is the exact same as it was for Sound Editing, although with a different outcome. While I think The Revenant and Mad Max still have a chance here, I’m going to go out on a limb and say this is the category for Star Wars: Force Awakens to finally win. Its sound mixing was featured fairly prominently. You know how you could hear the dialogue over the space fights? That’s due to sound mixing, as opposed to editing!

Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

But Don’t Count Out: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant

Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

So, I'm just saying...Lady Gaga's going to be at the Oscars. And you KNOW her red carpet outfit has to top Bjork's swan dress and I'm really excited to see it. My hope is that Lady Gaga's outfit will actually just be a life-sized doll of Bjork in the swan dress which Lady Gaga drapes over her body.

Best Original Song:

Nominees:

“Earned it”—Fifty Shades of Grey

“Manta Ray”—Racing Extinction

“Simple Song #3”—Youth

“Til It Happens to You”—The Hunting Ground

“Writing’s on the Wall”—Spectre

This is a great category for predictions, because all five nominees are easily accessible! Every one of these songs is on youtube, and I encourage you to check all of them out. I must admit it’s a weird lineup, and features five films which otherwise received no nominations. There are some definite oddball choices here, including the operatic Simple Song #3, and very slow and reflective Manta Ray, but my favorite song happens to be the frontrunner to win. Til It Happens to You is an excellent song, and since it’s written and performed by Lady Gaga, it has the star power that often gets recognized by the Academy here. So, get used to saying “Oscar-winner Lady Gaga,” because she deserves the award and is likely going to win it.

Will Win: “Til It Happens to You”—The Hunting Ground

But Don’t Count Out: “Simple Song #3”—Youth, in case the old white men on the Academy decide to say fuck you to all the changes to make the voting committee younger and more diverse by voting for the most explicitly old-fashioned song in retaliation.

Should Win: “Til It Happens to You”—The Hunting Ground


And there you have it--my predictions in every category! Be sure to watch the Oscars on Sunday to see how I do, and leave your own predictions in the comments!