2016 Oscar Predictions: Part 2

Here's the second batch of my Oscar predictions. If you haven't yet, be sure to check out Part 1 here.

Although most people are familiar with the nominees for things like Best Picture or Best Actor or Actress, far fewer seem to care about things like sound mixing or production design. And that’s a shame, because the talents in these fields deserve just as much recognition and are critical to a film’s success. And if you’re participating in an Oscar ballot, it’s worth noting that the “big” awards make up less than half of the categories. Everyone can predict that Leonardo DiCaprio will win, but not as many are up to date on who the frontrunners are for best Documentary Short Subject. Never fear! I’m here to give a rundown of my predictions for these categories too!

I’ll start with the short films. I say this every year, but if you have an opportunity to see these, please do yourself a favor and check them out! I look forward to the short selections every year, and often they’re brilliant. And some of them are available online! You can watch World of Tomorrow, Chau Beyond the Lines, and Last Day of Freedom on Netflix, and can check out We Can’t Live Without Cosmos here.

Awww! Look at these two friends from the movie Shok! They're having so much fun and I bet nothing terrible happens to either of them at all! Wh...what do you mean this is a war movie?

Best Live Action Short:

Nominees:

Ave Maria

Day One

Everything Will Be Okay

Shok

Stutterer

This is probably the weakest of the shorts categories this year. While all ten of the nominees in the other categories are excellent, the live action shorts have two films which I think are somewhat weak. The frontrunner, according to most experts, is Ave Maria, but this is primarily because it won the top award at Cannes. However, I didn't find it nearly as funny as I think it was trying to be, and it came across as really lightweight to me. Despite what the experts say, I can't understand how this one would possibly win amongst voters who have seen all the entries. It was this same gut instinct which allowed me to correctly pick Helium to win over the heavily favored The Voorman Problem in this category two years ago. So, if you want to trust the experts, go with Ave Maria, but I simply don't see it being named the best out of this group. That being said, it's not the worst of the nominees--that would be Day One, which was downright bad. But the other three nominees are all great, and I could see any of them winning. Shok, the tragic story of two young friends during the Kosovo War, is well done and I could see generating lots of votes, and a lot of what I've read online seems to think this is the frontrunner. But for me, it's only the third best. If I were giving out this award, it would be a tough race between Everything Will Be Okay and Stutterer. Everything Will Be Okay is a German film about a divorced father who goes to extremes to spend time with his daughter. It's devastating, and one of the most powerful films of the year. By contrast, Stutterer is a charming and quirky film about a typographer who tries to overcome his profound stutter to form a connection with those around him. Both are really well done, and I could easily see Stutterer gaining a lot of votes because of how enjoyable it is. But, I have to give the edge to Everything Will Be Okay. This film is heartbreaking, and stayed with me far longer than any of the other nominees, thanks especially to the wonderful performances of Simon Schwarz and Julia Pointner as a father and daughter.

Will Win: Everything Will Be Okay
But Don't Count Out: Stutterer, Shok, Ave Maria
Should Win: Everything Will Be Okay

World of Tomorrow is not just my favorite short film of the year, I think it's one of the best works of sci-fi in film history.

Best Animated Short:

Nominees:

Bear Story

Prologue

Sanjay’s Super Team

We Can’t Live Without Cosmos

World of Tomorrow

This is an excellent lineup. In past years, I’ve always felt there were one or two weaker entries, but all five of these films have a lot of merit. Even my least favorite nominee, Bear Story—a story within a story about a bear who is taken from his family to work in the circus—is beautifully done and better than the majority of nominees in the past few years. I also like these nominees because each one is so different. Sanjay’s Super Team, Pixar’s offering this year, is an adorable story of a young boy who uses his imagination to combine his favorite TV show—Super Team—with the Hindu traditions his father attempts to teach him. This cute and appealing short couldn’t be more difficult from Prologue, which has to have a warning before it’s played due to its graphic content, depicting an incredibly violent fight between two pairs of roaming savages. It packs the same brutal devastation of, say, The Revenant, but I would argue with greater effect due to its short runtime and the beauty of its simplistic pencil animation. Then there’s We Can’t Live Without Cosmos, a Russian short about the relationship between two astronauts training for a space mission. At times funny, at times heartbreaking, it’s an incredibly poetic and touching short. Any other year, I would have named We Can’t Live Without Cosmos the clear winner…but this year had World of Tomorrow. Ever since it premiered at Sundance, there has been buzz surrounding this movie that short films don’t usually receive, and with good reason. World of Tomorrow is on another level. It’s unlike anything else, featuring a brilliant script that runs a full gamut of ideas and emotions. All the films are great, but World of Tomorrow is transcendent.

It’s hard for me to imagine World of Tomorrow not winning, and it’s widely seen as the favorite. But I suppose there is an outside chance that the somewhat more conventional and still excellent Cosmos could take the title away. And then it’s difficult to completely count out Pixar, but as good as Sanjay’s Super Team is, if it wins then it has everything to do with studio interference as opposed to artistic merit. And usually this category is able to stay out of those sorts of politics.

Will Win: World of Tomorrow

But Don’t Count Out: We Can’t Live Without Cosmos, Sanjay’s Super Team

Last Day of Freedom, an animated documentary, plays with the format to create an unforgettable short film.

Best Documentary Short:

Nominees:

Body Team 12

Chau, Beyond the Lines

Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

Last Day of Freedom

Another great lineup, just like with the animated shorts, all five of these are excellent and all five are quite different. This category is almost always incredibly depressing, and this year is no exception, although despite the difficult subject matter, all five are engaging and compelling to watch. The most upbeat is probably Chau, Beyond the Lines, about a young Vietnamese artist who is disabled due to the effects of Agent Orange, but is pursuing his dream of being a painter. It’s a great portrait of a fascinating artist, much like Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah, which profiles the later life of Lanzmann, best known for directing the 10-hour cinematic masterpiece Shoah. While those two films are about people, the other three are more about ideas, and are what I see as the three frontrunners in the category. Body Team 12 is by far the shortest of the films, and takes a look at the only woman in Body Team 12, responsible for removing the bodies of Ebola victims in Liberia. A Girl in the River is about 19-year-old Saba Qaiser, who survived an honor killing in Pakistan. The film looks at Qaiser harrowing and brave story, while also examining the terrifying practice of honor killings and the culture that surrounds them. Last Day of Freedom is, surprisingly, an animated film, utilizing an interview with Bill Babbitt, who tells the story of his brother Manny who was executed on death row. The film is deeply personal, and is in equal parts about the relationship Bill had with his brother and some of the numerous flaws with our justice system. These last three films all tell great stories, and all inspire deserved outrage about their topics of choice.

I could see any of these five winning, but I think the most likely winner is A Girl in the River. It’s the only one of these titles which has received more widespread attention thanks to its distributor (both it and Claude Lanzmann are produced by HBO) and the film’s release has already been inspiring change in the Pakistani government to end the practice of honor killings. That’s pretty powerful stuff. But, my favorite is Last Day of Freedom. At first I thought the animation might be unnecessary, but it ended up being incredibly effective and interesting. What I think sets this one apart from the others for me is just how personal it is. It doesn’t feel like a documentary, it feels like we’re taking a look at Bill’s soul. The issues that it highlights are important, and essential to discuss, but ultimately, it’s a movie about the relationship between two brothers, and due to its personal nature, it affected me in a way that the other films simply weren’t able to.

Will Win: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

But Don’t Count Out: Any of them. It’s a strong field, and any of them could win, but I guess the most likely upset might be Body Team 12.

Should Win: Last Day of Freedom

Film scholars agree that the film editing in Mad Max: Fury Road was "awesome as fuck."

Best Film Editing:

Nominees:

The Big Short

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Spotlight

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Now we're moving back to the world of feature films to focus on the technical awards, starting with Best Film Editing. More often than not, this category goes hand in hand with the winner for Best Picture. And yet, of these five films, Best Picture frontrunner Spotlight is the one where the editing is the least apparent. The other four nominees here simply have more editing going on, and therefore are more likely winners. I hate that The Big Short is nominated here, because I found the editing really distracting and sloppy. And I don’t think that Star Wars will be able to win, as in the past twenty years, there have only been four winners in this category which have not been Best Picture nominees. That leaves The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road. This final two is hardly surprising. They’re the two most nominated films this year, and it’s likely that the two of them will absolutely dominate all of the technical categories. You’re going to see these titles a lot in the rest of this blog post. Really, the biggest question mark of the night is whether these films will split the technical awards, or whether one film will sweep the awards over the other. Personally, I think that for this category, the much faster pace and more frequent use of quick cuts makes Mad Max both the likely, and the more deserving winner in this particular category.

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

But Don’t Count Out: The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki is going for his third consecutive win. And he didn't have to eat a single raw animal heart to do it.

Best Cinematography:

Nominees:

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Sicario

There could potentially be a surprising spoiler with Sicario, if only because the nominee is Roger Deakins, who has been nominated twelve times previously and never won. But, barring the Academy throwing an overdue bone to Deakins, we can again pretty much assume that this category will come down to The Revenant or Mad Max: Fury Road. While I personally thought that the camera work of Mad Max was truly spectacular, pretty much everyone agrees that this award will go to The Revenant. And that’s hard to argue with—even those like myself who didn’t love the film will agree that the cinematography was gorgeous. Also, if The Revenant wins, it will mean an unprecedented three consecutive wins for cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki, who has already taken home back-to-back trophies for his work on Gravity and Birdman the past two years.

Will Win: The Revenant

But Don’t Count Out: Mad Max: Fury Road, Sicario

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Which Production Design nominee should I post. How about Bridge of Spies? No one's talking about Bridge of Spies. Cheer up, Bridge of Spies--I haven't forgotten you! Keep your chin up, you're directed by Spielberg!

Best Production Design:

Nominees:

Bridge of Spies

The Danish Girl

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Production design basically deals with all of the elements of how a film looks. Does the film achieve a certain aesthetic? You have the production design department to thank! Personally, I thought that the two standouts out of these nominees were Mad Max: Fury Road and The Martian, but it is very rare for this category to not go to a period piece like the other three nominees, which means that my favorites are at a bit of a disadvantage. Instead, I think The Revenant and its almost ghostly, naturally-lit color palette is going to take this award home, but don’t count out The Danish Girl which has the most period-piecey feel of these five.

Will Win: The Revenant

But Don’t Count Out: The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

How far have Visual Effects come? If Maz had been in the original Star Wars films, she would have just been the actress Linda Hunt spray painted yellow.

Best Visual Effects:

Nominees:

Ex Machina

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

I’m so happy that Ex Machina managed to score a nomination! It’s the little film that could, amongst some much bigger titles, all of which operated with a far bigger budget. Unfortunately, while the visual effects are really well done in both Ex Machina and The Martian, they’re not quite as flashy as the other three nominees, and so they’re kind of out of the running. Star Wars and Mad Max are the two juggernauts, and either could easily take this, but I think that the widely known reliance on practical effects over CGI in Mad Max is going to put it over the edge. That is, unless The Revenant can ride the much talked about CGI bear scene all the way to the Oscar podium.

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

But Don’t Count Out: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

The old age makeup in The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared is really impressive and also has no chance against two movies that people have actually heard of.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Nominees:

The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

The two films competing for all of the technical awards are here once again nominated, and are somewhat amusingly joined by probably one of the least recognizable titles of the year. If you’re wondering, The 100-Year-Old-Man is a Swedish comedy, and one character spends more than half of the movie in what seems to be very convincing old age makeup. Certainly impressive, but there’s no way it or The Revenant can compete with the out of this world makeup design in Mad Max: Fury Road. I don’t even know what The Revenant is doing here, although I guess it had some fake blood and bruises and stuff?

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

But Don’t Count Out: Johnny Depp appearing on stage in his makeup from Black Mass and burgling the award from the Mad Max team.

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

One of the many incredible and intricate costumes from Crimson Peak, which was somehow not nominated even though EVERY SINGLE COSTUME IN THIS FILM WAS A WORK OF ART AND HOW THE FUCK DID IT NOT GET A NOMINATION?! I WILL NEVER UNDERSTAND THIS!

Best Costume Design:

Nominees:

Carol

Cinderella

The Danish Girl

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Rather amazingly, this is a category where Mad Max and The Revenant might NOT win, as this category tends to go for pretty rather than gritty. Although Mad Max is still a strong contender and shouldn’t be counted out, I think there’s a good chance that the Oscar will go to three-time Oscar-winner Sandy Powell, who is in contention for both Carol and Cinderella this year (she must really like Cate Blanchett). Of the two, I think that the stylish costumes in Carol might have an edge—they’re pretty, but they’re also restrained and elegant in a way that the Cinderella weren’t.

Will Win: Carol

But Don’t Count Out: Mad Max: Fury Road, Cinderella

Should Win: Carol

I couldn't find a picture of Demian Bichir playing the piano from The Hateful Eight. That would have been such a perfect picture for Best Original Score, but...oh well. Here's another still from The Hateful Eight. I know it has nothing to do with the score, though, and I'm sorry I've let all my readers down.

Best Original Score:

Nominees:

Bridge of Spies

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

This is actually a really exciting category this year. Veteran film composer Carter Burwell, who has scored countless films, has finally received his first ever nomination for Carol, which is great! But the excitement around Burwell is overshadowed by the inclusion of two genuine legends. Ennio Morricone and John Williams, both octogenarians, are two of the most iconic film composers in the business, and are proving that they’re still more than capable of producing great work with The Hateful Eight and Star Wars: The Force Awakens respectively. They’re the two frontrunners not just because of how beloved they are, but because they did genuinely create the two best scores this year. While it’s hard to bet against Williams, I think that Morricone will take home his first ever Oscar for his brilliant and mysterious score for The Hateful Eight.

Will Win: The Hateful Eight

But Don’t Count Out: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Should Win: The Hateful Eight

What's that? You don't care about sound editing? Well, without sound editing there would be no flamethrowing guitar so maybe you should care about it a little bit more! Didn't think of that, did you?

Best Sound Editing:

Nominees:

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Once again, Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant are major contenders here, although Star Wars: The Force Awakens shouldn’t be counted out. Given the film’s overwhelming success, it’s like the Academy might want to give it something, and one of these categories would be its best shot at joining the winner’s circle. So, this category is definitely up in the air, but it’s just too hard to bet against Mad Max in any of these technical categories.

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

But Don’t Count Out: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Bridge of Spies, the only sound mixing nominee not also nominated for sound editing. The sound editors for this film must really feel like they dropped the ball.

Best Sound Mixing:

Nominees:

Bridge of Spies

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

My reasoning here is the exact same as it was for Sound Editing, although with a different outcome. While I think The Revenant and Mad Max still have a chance here, I’m going to go out on a limb and say this is the category for Star Wars: Force Awakens to finally win. Its sound mixing was featured fairly prominently. You know how you could hear the dialogue over the space fights? That’s due to sound mixing, as opposed to editing!

Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

But Don’t Count Out: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant

Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

So, I'm just saying...Lady Gaga's going to be at the Oscars. And you KNOW her red carpet outfit has to top Bjork's swan dress and I'm really excited to see it. My hope is that Lady Gaga's outfit will actually just be a life-sized doll of Bjork in the swan dress which Lady Gaga drapes over her body.

Best Original Song:

Nominees:

“Earned it”—Fifty Shades of Grey

“Manta Ray”—Racing Extinction

“Simple Song #3”—Youth

“Til It Happens to You”—The Hunting Ground

“Writing’s on the Wall”—Spectre

This is a great category for predictions, because all five nominees are easily accessible! Every one of these songs is on youtube, and I encourage you to check all of them out. I must admit it’s a weird lineup, and features five films which otherwise received no nominations. There are some definite oddball choices here, including the operatic Simple Song #3, and very slow and reflective Manta Ray, but my favorite song happens to be the frontrunner to win. Til It Happens to You is an excellent song, and since it’s written and performed by Lady Gaga, it has the star power that often gets recognized by the Academy here. So, get used to saying “Oscar-winner Lady Gaga,” because she deserves the award and is likely going to win it.

Will Win: “Til It Happens to You”—The Hunting Ground

But Don’t Count Out: “Simple Song #3”—Youth, in case the old white men on the Academy decide to say fuck you to all the changes to make the voting committee younger and more diverse by voting for the most explicitly old-fashioned song in retaliation.

Should Win: “Til It Happens to You”—The Hunting Ground


And there you have it--my predictions in every category! Be sure to watch the Oscars on Sunday to see how I do, and leave your own predictions in the comments!