Oscar Predictions: 94th Annual Academy Awards

Before I go into my predictions, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: The Oscars are a mess this year (unlike a far superior set of movie awards). As viewership decreases each year, the sense of panic surrounding the broadcast increases, with The Oscars pulling out multiple transparent gimmicks in an attempt to draw more eyes to the screen. This year, they’ve really outdone themselves, with choices ranging from the infuriating (not broadcasting eight of the awards announcements live) to the out of touch (having a special Twitter fan vote as part of the ceremony) to the just strange (having DJ Khaled as a presenter). As someone who obsesses about The Oscars enough to write this lengthy post each year, it’s disheartening to see. I’m not the first to say that it’s baffling to feel like the people making The Oscars don’t care about the movies nominated. HELLO?! THAT’S THE WHOLE POINT OF THE OSCARS! The reason the ratings are down is because the way we watch television is drastically different than a few years ago. Ratings are down for everyone and everything, and there’s actually a lot of data to suggest that The Oscars are more popular than ever. For one thing, Oscars ratings have fallen by less of a percentage than just about every other awards show. For another thing, The Oscars are and always have been a constant source of attention on social media. Engagement with The Oscars is way, way up, and if The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences could just change the way it views what a successful broadcast is, they’d find a lot to be happy with. Has it ever even occurred to them to offer an online livestream so that people without cable can watch it? I bet streaming numbers would be through the roof if just given a chance! Sadly, The Academy is its own worst enemy here, and I worry that if they continue to cater to people who are simply never going to be interested in this event, they’re going to eventually alienate those who still see something to love about this highly silly night.

So, for the next few minutes, let’s put all of the production bullshit out of mind, and focus on what The Oscars are supposed to be about: the movies nominated for their artistic achievements. It’s a wild year, and a lot of pundits are all over the place in terms of their predictions. Keep reading to find out why I’m STILL not over last year’s winner for Best Live Action Short, why I feel like a giant fly should have been among this year’s Oscar nominees, and why I feel like one of the most prominent contenders for Best Picture actually doesn’t have much of a chance at all. It’s the Miles Oscar Predictions, folks! Let’s get to it!

 

BEST PICTURE:

The Power of the Dog, CODA, and Drive My Car

Will Win: The Power of the Dog

Could Win: CODA

Wild Cards: Belfast, Drive My Car, West Side Story

Should Win: Drive My Car

Should Have Been Nominated: I Blame Society

 

This has been one of the rockiest awards seasons of recent years, with frontrunners shifting in many of the major categories. Remember when Lady Gaga was seen as the de facto winner for Best Actress, only to then not receive a nomination? This awards season turbulence is certainly reflected in the Best Picture race. Frontrunners have risen and fallen throughout the season. No film has proven bulletproof, and if you’re trying to pick the winner, there are a number of narratives to choose from.

 

Way back in February, prior to nominations being announced, the two frontrunners to win appeared to be The Power of the Dog and Belfast. Belfast has faded from the frontlines quite a bit, but The Power of the Dog had a huge boost after nominations were announced. It overperformed, picking up every nomination it was expected to get, and several that it wasn’t (shoutout to Jesse Plemons!!!). To get more nominations than more technical heavyweights such as Dune and West Side Story is a real feat, and shows the Academy’s support for the film. It would also mark the first time a Netflix film won Best Picture, and Netflix has leaned heavily into its awards campaign (all but abandoning the campaign for fellow Best Picture nominee Don’t Look Up, as well as multiple nominees like tick, tick…BOOM! and The Lost Daughter).

 

But, as often happens, The Power of the Dog’s frontrunner status might just be its undoing. It has been on top for so long that it can only lose momentum, and a much smaller film has started to be on the rise in the past few weeks—as it happens, right as voting began. Sundance winner CODA has easily had the second biggest awards campaign since nominations came out, and that strategy seems to be paying off. Its Best Ensemble win at the SAG Awards was the first indication that CODA has strong industry support, and its recent win at the Producer’s Guild of America (PGA) Awards has many prognosticators naming CODA as the new frontrunner. On top of its accolades, there is also a more emotional argument—CODA is a “feel-good” film. In the past, there has been a trend of voters opting for “happier” films during times of national conflict (the most famous example being Rocky winning over films like Taxi Driver, Network, and All the President’s Men).

 

I’ll be honest—I’m pretty skeptical of these arguments, and I think it might be a case of prognosticators getting bored and inventing conflict. While the recent wins are certainly impressive, CODA has a LOT it will have to overcome to actually win Best Picture. For one thing, there are quite a lot of feel-good films in the running for Best Picture, such as Belfast, King Richard and West Side Story (West Side Story might not exactly be a happy story, but flashy musicals kind of end up in that category by default). Of these options, CODA has by far the fewest nominations, and is missing crucial recognition in heavyweight categories like directing and editing. It’s honestly unthinkable to me that so many people see the Best Picture frontrunner being a film with only 3 nominations. That would be absolutely unprecedented. To find a Best Picture winner with 3 or fewer nominations you have to go back to the 5^th Academy Awards 90 years ago (and back then, there were only 9 categories that feature films were eligible for). While I can see why the SAG and PGA wins make a compelling case for CODA, those awards are not reliable enough to be predictors on their own. The PGAs do tend to be a good indicator, but they are not infallible. In recent years, the PGA has gone to Oscar also-rans such as 1917, La La Land, and The Big Short, and each time prognosticators have overestimated its influence the same way they seem to be doing for CODA. The SAG Award is even less reliable. While the Best Ensemble award used to be a great Oscar bellwether, it has only matched with Best Picture once in the last five years. So, at the risk of looking foolish and ignoring the obvious, I just don’t see a win for CODA happening. Despite its recent losses, the argument on paper for The Power of the Dog is just too strong.

 

But…I’m not totally counting out a major upset here. Even if I don’t exactly see CODA winning, I also can’t declare a win for The Power of the Dog with complete certainty. It’s been a long time since there has been a true upset at the Oscars, but it would be an exciting event. If we’re going with the feel-good argument that so many are attributing to CODA, maybe we shouldn’t have counted Belfast out so soon. And while West Side Story has never really gained traction the way it deserved to, it’s arguably the most Oscar-friendly of all the nominees, and might have the broad appeal to pull out a win thanks to the Academy’s balloted voting system. Look, I’m not even ready to count out Drive My Car, which would be an absolutely wild upset. Ever since Parasite won Best Picture, it opened the doors for international films to be considered viable options. And while Parasite was far more of a cultural phenomenon than Drive My Car is, it is similarly incredibly well-liked. While all the other nominees have their fair share of detractors, Drive My Car is arguably at the top of almost everyone’s list (it’s certainly my personal favorite of the 10). It’s very slight, but there is a chance that the ranked choice voting makes Drive My Car the unexpected consensus choice. Basically, the smart vote is The Power of the Dog, but it’s fun to imagine the other ways this could go.

 

I Blame Society

My top 4 favorite films of 2021 all would have been eligible for last year’s ceremony instead of this one, meaning that my pick for what should have been nominated is Gillian Wallace Horvat’s I Blame Society, which honestly pleases my greatly. This film is not only the most underrated film of the year, it is one of the gutsiest films I’ve ever seen, with a disturbing artistic vision as distinct as that of any Oscar-worthy filmmaker. In terms of subject matter and thematic elements, it calls to mind recent Best Picture nominees like Promising Young Woman and Joker, but for me it succeeds precisely where those movie fail, offering a much clearer thesis statement and infinitely sharper social commentary. There were other excellent movies from 2021 which I could more easily have seen at the Oscars in a parallel universe (like C’mon C’mon and Nine Days) but despite its unconventionality, I Blame Society is no less deserving.

 

BEST DIRECTOR:

The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, and Drive My Car

 

Will Win: Jane Campion—The Power of the Dog

Could Win: Paul Thomas Anderson—Licorice Pizza (but not really)

Should Win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi—Drive My Car

Should Have Been Nominated: Mike Mills—C’mon C’mon

 

Regardless of whether The Power of the Dog wins Best Picture or not, Jane Campion is far and away the favorite to win in this category. She’s a heavyweight within the industry—the first woman to be nominated in this category twice, and if she wins as expected, it will be the second year in a row that a woman has won Best Director, which I think is appealing for a lot of voters. But make no mistake, this award is about merit, not politics. Campion’s directing of The Power of the Dog is masterful. She has won Best Director at pretty much every awards ceremony up until now and the Oscars will be no exception. It's possibly the clearest category of the night.

 

If anyone else wins it will be a rather shocking upset, which is a bit surprising considering that this is one of the strongest directing fields in recent memory. Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s work for Drive My Car is my personal favorite of the bunch, and I hope that the success of this film brings more attention to this wonderful filmmaker. I’m a bit surprised that Steven Spielberg isn’t more prominently in the conversation because his direction isn’t just his strongest in years, it’s maybe the showiest direction out of the five nominees. I think if anyone has the best chance of pulling off an upset it’s Paul Thomas Anderson. While Licorice Pizza is a bit divisive, Anderson is a favorite of the Academy's, and he’s never won before. Other than Campion, he’s the only filmmaker here who might have a narrative that he’s “overdue,” which famously plays well with the Academy.

 

Kenneth Branagh is also nominated for Belfast. Okay.

 

C'mon C'mon

 If I could have added a single director to this category, it would have to be Mike Mills for C’mon C’mon. There are a number of circumstances that could have made this film an awards season stalwart. If Joaquin Phoenix hadn’t won Best Actor for Joker so recently, he would have been a shoo-in to win for his far superior performance in this film. If the film had a different distributor than A24, which notoriously appears indifferent to the awards season, it could have been more of a campaign presence. Hey, even if Belfast wasn’t in contention, maybe there would have been room for a different black and white film to gain traction in the race (either C’mon C’mon or the similarly excellent Passing). Regardless, I like to dream of an Oscar season where this wonderful film had really gotten its due. And in that scenario, Mills would have certainly scored his first nomination in this category. He has quietly become one of my favorite filmmakers working today, and C’mon C’mon ranks as one of his best films to date. In a year where a movie like CODA is deemed a Best Picture frontrunner simply by virtue of being “feel-good,” there definitely should have been a place for a movie like C’mon C’mon, which is charming and cozy without sacrificing artistic merit.

 

BEST ACTRESS:

Nicole Kidman, Jessica Chastain, and Olivia Colman

 Will Win: Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball—Being the Ricardos

Could Win: Jessica Chastain—The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Olivia Colman as Leda Caruso—The Lost Daughter, Kristen Stewart as Diana, Princess of Wales—Spencer

Should Win: Olivia Colman as Leda Caruso—The Lost Daughter

Should Have Been Nominated: Patti Harrison as Anna—Together Together

 

If any category sums up the erratic nature of this year’s Oscars, it’s Best Actress. The frontrunner for this award feels like it has changed every single week, making it easily the toughest category to predict. Here are some of the reasons why this category feels so strange: for the first time since 2005, none of the nominees are in films nominated for Best Picture. Even weirder is that none of the nominees overlap with the BAFTAs, an award which has matched winners with the Oscars for the past 8 years. While there are often years where this category feels like it’s between two people, this year I could genuinely see a case made for four out of the five contenders. The only person I don't really see a case for is Penelope Cruz. If you've read other Oscars predictions recently this might surprise you as, out of nowhere, a lot of people are naming Cruz as the winner, seemingly on the argument that the other four will split the votes and that means that the performance with the least amount of precursors to back her up will win. This is lunacy. This is the Oscars guessing version of believing in the Loch Ness Monster. There is no evidence to back it up, just wishful thinking and anecdotal evidence of "Oh someone I know who's in the Academy is voting from Cruz." Cruz's performance is wonderful, and my second-favorite of the group, but I truly don't see a way that she wins here.

 

Those that have not suddenly named Cruz as the frontrunner have tended to single out Jessica Chastain as a clear frontrunner for her performance in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. I similarly don’t understand the confidence with which this choice has been made, although it seems based entirely on Chastain’s win at the SAG Awards. To be fair, the SAG is frequently a good indicator of Oscars success, but it has been far more spotty in recent years. I think the reliability of the SAG Awards is mostly good at establishing a true clear consensus choice in the acting categories. Winners like Renee Zellweger and Emma Stone won the SAG and the Oscar, but they also won just about every other award leading up to that point. Whenever the Oscars has a more surprising pick (like Olivia Colman over Glenn Close, or Frances McDormand over Viola Davis last year), the SAG seems to diverge, and this of all years feels like that's destined to be the case. The only problem with my theory is that there isn’t one single contender who’s the clear choice to overtake Chastain, and I think that’s why so many prognosticators are putting so much stock in the SAG win. I will say that I don’t want to count Chastain out entirely. She’s an Academy favorite who has never won before, which is a point in her favor. Also, while The Eyes of Tammy Faye got a mostly negative reception as a whole (especially compared to the films of the other nominees), her performance being the sole standout aspect of the film might give her an edge in the eyes of Oscar voters.

 

Still, instinctively, I just don’t see it happening. I could be wrong, but it feels like other performances and other films have significantly more buzz. For example, Kristen Stewart was once seen as the frontrunner in this category, but the excitement around her performance failed to materialize as the awards season went on, and once she failed to get a SAG nomination, many counted her out entirely. That's because ever since the SAG Awards have been around, the eventual Oscar winner for Leading Actress has always gotten at least a nomination (although that’s not the case in the supporting category equivalent). But the unpredictability of this category might just work in Stewart’s favor. If we view her snub at the SAG Awards as a fluke rather than a precedent, then she actually has as good a chance as anybody, and has probably picked up more awards at the various critics’ awards than anybody else. If people are willing to overlook the SAG snub of Cruz suddenly, why not the snub of Stewart? It would be kind of funny if the awards season went full circle and Stewart ended up emerging victorious after going from frontrunner to longshot. And I should point out this is not wishful thinking on my part. I’m a big fan of Stewart, but I truly don’t understand the hype around this particular performance, which strikes me as one of the least interesting performances she’s given in recent years. I’m happy other people responded to it, but it honestly just felt like a lot of breathing and posing, which didn’t offer any new perspective in terms of how Princess Diana is viewed. As with Chastain’s performance, it feels like the praise for this performance has more to do with “looking unrecognizable” as opposed to more in depth storytelling. But regardless of my personal thoughts, I do think that Stewart has more of a shot here than a lot of people are giving her credit for.

 

But then there’s Nicole Kidman and Olivia Colman, both of whom have won in this category before, which puts them at a disadvantage but by no means disqualifies them from winning again. Just like I’m at odds with the public perception of Stewart’s performance, I also disagree with the reception of Kidman’s. Ever since it was announced that Kidman was going to play Lucille Ball, there were a lot of complaints about her not being right for the role. But I thought she did a credible job in Being the Ricardos, showing a different side of Lucille Ball in a performance that felt like a fully realized character and not a mere impersonation. It’s not her best work, and there are a lot of problems with Being the Ricardos as a whole, but this is not an unworthy performance. Then there’s Colman, who already proved she’s capable of pulling an upset two years ago. For me, Colman’s is far and away the best performance in this lineup. Her work in The Lost Daughter is compelling, surprising, and full of depth. Both Kidman and Colman have been consistent presences on the awards circuit, and I don’t see their report cards being any weaker than, say, Chastain’s. I think it’s also notable that they are in films with a lot more of an Oscars presence than the others. Spencer doesn’t have any nominations other than Stewart’s, and The Eyes of Tammy Faye’s only other nomination is for Best Makeup & Hairstyling. While Being the Ricardos and The Lost Daughter aren’t exactly heavyweights this season, the other nominations are in more prominent categories. Kidman’s is one of three acting nominations the film scored, and The Lost Daughter has another acting nomination, and one for Adapted Screenplay. This implies that these films have more fans than their competition—and this happens to be the category that each film has the best chance of actually winning. If the fans of these films rally behind their respective leading actresses, then I can see that being enough to give either of them the win.

 

Honestly, if Chastain wins, I’m going to look like I botched an obvious pick. But if anyone else wins, I’m going to count that as a win. As a bit of a shot in the dark, I’m ultimately going with Kidman, but even I’m not sure exactly why. It's a tough race this year.

 

Patti Harrison in Together Together

 

The general sense of “meh” surrounding this category is particularly frustrating considering that there were a lot of great performances which could have been recognized. Tessa Thompson gave a career-best performance in Passing. On the international side of things, Renate Reinsve and Agathe Rousselle did acclaimed, tour de force work in The Worst Person in the World and Titane respectively. But if I had to pick just one performance that should have been nominated, I’m going with Patti Harrison in Together Together. This rom-com adjacent film was one of 2021’s numerous unseen gems, but Harrison’s work is really extraordinary—frequently funny, but with grounded gravitas that really elevates what is already an excellent screenplay.

 

BEST ACTOR:

Will Smith, Andrew Garfield, and Denzel Washington

 

Will Win: Will Smith as Richard Williams—King Richard

Could Win: Benedict Cumberbatch as Phil Burbank—The Power of the Dog, Andrew Garfield as Jonathan Larson—tick, tick…BOOM!,

Should Win: Denzel Washington as Macbeth—The Tragedy of Macbeth

Should Have Been Nominated: Joaquin Phoenix as Johnny—C’mon C’mon

 

Compared to Best Actress, the Best Actor category feels at least a little more straightforward, with Will Smith widely being considered the frontrunner. This is a textbook example of how these awards are about the campaign far more than the work itself. Smith does perfectly capable work in King Richard, but the initial reaction to his performance seemed to have far less excitement surrounding it than, say, the performances of Benedict Cumberbatch and Andrew Garfield. At the time, many said that Cumberbatch and Garfield gave the best performances of their respective careers, and they both scored far better with critics than Smith. However, Cumberbatch is in a crowded film, and the narrative of The Power of the Dog’s ad campaign seems far more focused on Jane Campion’s work and on the film’s overall strength. Acting-wise, Netflix has focused a lot of their campaign on Kodi Smit-McPhee in the Supporting Actor category, as his lack of name recognition meant that he maybe needed more of a push than Cumberbatch. Instead of being the focal point of the film’s campaign, Cumberbatch is a bit more in the background. As for Garfield, his performance is significantly easier to pinpoint as part of the film’s success. But he’s a victim of Netflix’s awards campaign. For the past few years now, Netflix has had a lot of potential Oscar contenders, and ends up putting all of their weight behind only one or two of them. Netflix actually campaigned fairly hard for tick, tick…BOOM! but once it failed to score a Best Picture nomination it was rather unceremoniously dropped. Now that The Power of the Dog no longer has a stronghold on the Best Picture race, that is where all of their attentions are focused, and Garfield’s chances have suffered from it. Conversely, Smith has a full campaign behind him. King Richard clearly has enough industry support to have picked up six nominations, but it’s not favored to win any of them except for Best Actor and maybe Best Editing, so the full weight of that film’s campaign is centered on Smith. Plus, Smith himself has been really active on the campaign trail. He has wanted an Oscar for years now, and has enough industry goodwill that it feels like the Academy is willing to hand it to him. That being said, I’m not ready to count Cumberbatch or Garfield out. At one point early in the awards season, I would have given both of them the edge over Smith, and it’s possible that one of them has more support than people are giving them credit for.

 

Joaquin Phoenix in C'mon C'mon

 

In general, I find this category pretty lacking. None of the nominated performances are necessarily bad (I even thought Bardem was at least okay) but I wasn’t particularly grabbed by any of them. My favorite of the group would have to be Denzel Washington for The Tragedy of Macbeth. A role like Macbeth is tricky because it’s so iconic that an actor is fated to not be able to please everybody, but I appreciated a lot of his choices in this film, and ultimately his work stood out to me in a way that the other four nominees did not. Ideally I’d want a clean sweep of this category, but if I had to pick just one person to join this category it has to be Joaquin Phoenix for C’mon C’mon. I’ve already spoken about how great this film is, so I won’t go on and on about it, but Phoenix really does do some of the best work of his career here. When he won for Joker a couple of years ago, I was put off by a performance that felt labored and gimmicky to me. By contrast, his work here is so natural, easy, and extraordinary.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Ariana DeBose, Kirsten Dunst, and Aunjanue Ellis

 

Will Win: Ariana DeBose as Anita—West Side Story

Could Win: Aunjanue Ellis as Oracene “Brandy” Price—King Richard, Kirsten Dunst as Rose Gordon—The Power of the Dog

Should Win: Kirsten Dunst as Rose Gordon—The Power of the Dog

Should Have Been Nominated: Kathryn Hunter as The Witches—The Tragedy of Macbeth 

 

Much like Best Actor, the category of Best Supporting Actress is in a place where one frontrunner has emerged, although their lead is not insurmountable. In this case, it’s Ariana DeBose. DeBose’s work is excellent in its own right, but as the sole acting nominee for West Side Story, a win for her would in some ways feel like it was in recognition of the ensemble as a whole. After scoring wins at the SAG Awards and BAFTAs, this one is definitely DeBose’s to lose. I also believe (although I’m not 100% positive) that a win for DeBose would mark the first time an actor won an Oscar in a remake where the originator of that role also won an Oscar. And if that sentence is confusing…look, I spent about 45 minutes trying to figure out a way to reword it. Needless to say, a win for DeBose would be very cool indeed.

 

But while she’s a frontrunner, I do think this win might be vulnerable. Fellow nominees Aunjanue Ellis and Kirsten Dunst have been right by DeBose’s side all awards season, and their work might appeal to voters who want to award a more seasoned veteran as opposed to a newcomer. Ellis is a formidable performer, but I truly don’t understand why THIS role is getting her so much attention. This is an absolutely thankless role, one which Ellis performs capably, but nothing about this role was written to be awards-worthy. Dunst, on the other hand, would be a more than worthy winner. Dunst ever so slightly edges out DeBose to give my favorite performance of these five nominees, offering the most compelling performance out of The Power of the Dog’s decorated ensemble. She’s wonderful to watch, and after years of not getting recognized by the Academy, it would be nice to see her finally triumph on her first nomination.

 

Kathryn Hunter in The Tragedy of Macbeth

 

There’s no shortage of great supporting performances I would have loved to have seen here. The snub of Ruth Negga’s work in Passing is one of the most glaring omissions of the year. I would have also loved to have seen Martha Plimpton recognized for Mass (although I would have settled for ANY recognition for Mass). But even more baffling than both of these snubs is Kathryn Hunter for The Tragedy of Macbeth. That film as a whole didn’t make as much of an impression as it should have on this year’s Oscars, but I don’t know how anyone could watch that movie and not be blown away by Hunter’s performance. It’s creepy and compelling, and her interpretation is easily one of the best elements of the film as a whole.   

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, and Jesse Plemons

 Will Win: Troy Kotsur as Frank Rossi—CODA

Could Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee as Peter Gordon—The Power of the Dog

Should Win: Troy Kotsur as Frank Rossi—CODA

Should Have Been Nominated: Dan Stevens as Tom—I’m Your Man

 

For a Best Picture frontrunner, CODA features shockingly mediocre filmmaking, and I’m not the first person to point out that it would feel more at home in a lineup of Disney channel original movies than Oscars contenders. But the thing that actually makes CODA noteworthy is the performances of its deaf cast. Deaf actors Troy Kotsur, Marlee Matlin, and Daniel Durant are all really excellent, and their work here really is the one truly great element in an otherwise forgettable film. In a world where hearing actors are still consistently cast in deaf roles, we far too frequently watch actors “playing deaf.” Because they actually ARE deaf, Kotsur, Matlin, and Durant can channel their performances into creating actual characters, without the distraction of performing a disability. Kotsur in particular really is the standout, and his incredibly deserving performance would make him only the second deaf actor to win an Oscar (after his co-star Matlin). Luckily, his win seems fairly set in stone, as he has practically swept the latter part of the awards season. Of the acting frontrunners, his win seems the most assured.

 

If any of the other nominees can overtake Kotsur, it would be Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog. As much as Kotsur has dominated the recent awards season, Smit-McPhee stood out as an early awards season favorite, and still has a slight chance of triumphing over Kotsur. Personally, I think his co-star and fellow nominee Jesse Plemons gives a far more interesting performance in The Power of the Dog, and I think if the film’s campaign had focused on Plemons instead of Smit-McPhee, we might be looking at a very different situation for this category. Regardless, if Smit-McPhee (or for that matter Plemons) triumphs over Kotsur, you can all but discount CODA from taking home Best Picture. This should be its easiest win of the night.

 

Dan Stevens in I'm Your Man

 

One of my favorite films of last year was the German film I’m Your Man, which made the Oscars International Film shortlist, but failed to break into that crowded category. I’m sad it has been so overlooked, however, as this sci-fi rom-com was one of the most innovative films of the year, in no small part thanks to the performance of Dan Stevens. Stevens has steadily built up a rather prolific filmography, but this is his best performance yet. Playing a robot learning how to be human, his performance is an incredibly difficult one to pull off, as his character must change from scene to scene while remaining as one consistent character. I’m chalking this one up to nobody seeing this film. If it had made more of a mark, I think Stevens would have been a part of the conversation.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Licorice Pizza, Don't Look Up, and The Worst Person in the World

 

Will Win: Licorice Pizza

Could Win: Don’t Look Up

Should Win: The Worst Person in the World

Should Have Been Nominated: I Blame Society

 

The screenplay categories are always some of the most fun to try and predict because they frequently go to films that otherwise don’t get recognized. It’s been said that you look to the screenplay categories to know what SHOULD have won Best Picture (although, considering that recent screenplay winners have included Green Book, Jojo Rabbit, and Promising Young Woman, I can’t say I fully stand by that strategy). From a guessing standpoint, the screenplay categories are also interesting to consider because the WGA awards are notoriously nitpicky in terms of eligibility, making them often unreliable predictors, leading to the potential for more surprises here.

 

For a long time, Licorice Pizza seemed like the runaway favorite in this category. Paul Thomas Anderson remains one of the most notable Oscars also-rans. This year he received his third directing nomination and fifth screenplay nomination, but he still has never actually won. His beloved status within in the industry might cause people to rally behind him here, and for a while it has been considered his award to lose. But then…the WGA awards happened and Best Original Screenplay went to Don’t Look Up. And suddenly this has become a two-horse race. Like I said in the last paragraph, this category often goes to films that otherwise don’t get any recognition and, sure enough, this is the only category that either of these films has any chance of actually winning, and fans are certainly going to rally behind them here. The question is just which film has more support, and it’s honestly hard to say. The WGA really shouldn’t be ignored, and I think it might make Don’t Look Up stronger on paper. But I’m going with Licorice Pizza mostly due to the timeline. Don’t Look Up had most of its momentum before nominations were announced (thanks, in part, to the divisive critical reaction to it) but still underperformed with nominations, failing to score any acting nominations or technical awards. Even its exclusion from Best Original Song was an indication that Don’t Look Up didn’t have broad support at the height of its momentum. Since then, Netflix has focused its campaign efforts away from Don't Look Up and on to The Power of the Dog, which I think might leave an opening for Licorice Pizza to remain on top here.

 

I Blame Society

Overall, I find this category disappointing. Licorice Pizza is far from Anderson’s best screenplay. King Richard and Belfast are about as bland as the movies as a whole. Don’t Look Up is one of the worst screenplays ever nominated. The only bright spot in the category is The Worst Person in the World, which sadly has no chance as it’s the only non-Best Picture nominee in the bunch (which has become a clear prerequisite for this category in recent years). I think that what’s lacking is, as the title says, originality. There were so many more screenplays that were ACTUALLY original this year. Films like Nine Days, I’m Your Man, and Limbo featured great writing and truly original concepts that note for note rate well above any of the films in this lineup. But, truly, no screenplay this year was more original than the one for I Blame Society. Look, I already talked about this film in the Best Picture category. Just, check it out. I’ve never seen a movie quite like it, and its screenplay is the main reason why.

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

The Power of the Dog, CODA, and Drive My Car

 

Will Win: The Power of the Dog

Could Win: CODA, Drive My Car

Should Win: The Lost Daughter

Should Have Been Nominated: West Side Story

 

Just like in the last category, the WGA Award is a good place to start, and this year it went to CODA. It’s a big win for the film, and another reason why many see it as gaining momentum going into Oscar night. But, once again, I think people are overestimating its chances. Sure, it won the WGA, but three of the Oscar nominees in this category were ineligible: The Power of the Dog, Drive My Car, and The Lost Daughter. These are three strong contenders, and I find it hard to believe that CODA’s screenplay will do as well now that it’s competing against a movie other than Dune, let alone three.. Of the three screenplays that didn’t compete at the WGAs, my personal favorite is The Lost Daughter, which I think would have shot here if not for the fact that it’s not nominated for Best Picture. Again, being a Best Picture nominee seems to be a prerequisite to win the screenplay categories at this point, so The Lost Daughter is sadly out. Drive My Car is again a bit of a wild card. Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s screenplay is excellent and, crucially, its screenplay is the wordiest and potentially the most showy of the group. Fans of the film will undoubtedly point out the screenplay in particular, moreso than with the other nominees in this category. But then there’s The Power of the Dog. Again, I think that the big question of this whole Oscars is just how well The Power of the Dog will do. If it’s going to win Best Picture like I think it will, it needs to pick up at least a couple of other awards, but the only category it has locked down right now is Best Director. That’s partly why I think it’s going to triumph here. In fact, a win here is crucial for my whole argument of why this film will win Best Picture over CODA. This category might just be a litmus test for Best Picture. If either The Power of the Dog or CODA win, that bodes really well for its chances later in the night. If Drive My Car wins then all bets are off. And if Dune wins then the Oscars are canceled.

West Side Story

West Side Story did fairly well when nominations were announced, but it’s baffling to me that out of all the categories, it didn’t score a nomination here. As great as the cast is, and as great as Spielberg’s direction is, the true secret to West Side Story’s success is Tony Kushner’s screenplay. It manages to preserve, and even accentuate, the things that have made this story so enduring and iconic, while updating the more outdated elements. It’s a West Side Story for a new generation that still feels true to the original. It should have been in the running.

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:

Drive My Car, The Worst Person in the World, and Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

 Will Win: Drive My Car (Japan)

Could Win: The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

Should Win: Drive My Car

Should Have Been Nominated: I’m Your Man (Germany)

 

This category is pretty straightforward. If a film in this category has been nominated for Best Picture it has historically always won in this category as well, and there’s no reason to think that trend won’t hold. And it makes sense! If one of these films is singled out as one of the ten best movies of the year, it makes sense it will be considered the best of these five. So, Drive My Car it is. No need to overthink this.

 

But…there is a chance for an upset. I’m not saying it’s likely, but I could see a scenario where The Worst Person in the World wins this year. This is a case of bad timing in terms of release. The Worst Person in the World already had a lot of fans already, as indicated by its surprising nomination for Best Original Screenplay. But since its release after nominations were announced, its stock has only grown thanks to the positive reaction to the film. We’ll never know for sure, but if it had received a wide release before nominations were announced, this could have been a contender for Best Actress, and even Best Picture. The fact that Drive My Car seems like such a clear winner in this category only makes it more likely that fans of the film will rank The Worst Person in the World first on their ballot, just because they think Drive My Car will safely win. This is still Drive My Car’s award to win, but if it doesn’t, this is the only reasonable explanation for what happened.

I'm Your Man

It's a strong lineup this year, featuring some groundbreaking nominees. While it’s not my favorite of the nominees on its own merits, I am thrilled that Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom made the lineup, as it’s the first film the country of Bhutan has ever submitted to the Oscars. So I’m overall pleased with this category. But I still wish that Germany’s submission I’m Your Man had made it off of the shortlist and into the nominees. I’ve talked about this film a few times already, but it ranks among the best international films of the year, and a nomination could have really helped bring attention to this underseen gem.

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Encanto, Flee, and The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Will Win: Encanto

Could Win: Flee

Should Win: The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Should Have Been Nominated: Belle

 

A few months ago, this category seemed like it might be wide open. Without a runaway animated hit like there is most years, it looked like we could have a more unconventional winner in this category. There was The Mitchells vs. the Machines, an acclaimed and truly innovative animated film that was one of my favorite films of the year. There was Flee, a rare nominee in this category geared towards adults, which has already made history as the first film to ever score nominations in this category as well as Documentary Feature and International Film. Flee actually seemed like a really strong contender at one point, but after nominations were announced, Disney’s Encanto has really taken the world by storm. It’s been a slow burn for the film, which initially had a modest debut, but over time has become a genuine cultural phenomenon thanks to chart-topping songs like that one that is stuck in your head right now. It has skyrocketed into frontrunner status and I can’t be mad at it. I’m typically disappointed by how predictably this category is dominated by Disney and Pixar, but this is Disney’s best film in years.

Belle

That being said, I still think there was room for some more originality in the nominations. I was a little surprised that Mamoru Hosoda’s Belle wasn’t nominated. The Japanese film director has been nominated in this category before, and this technicolor cyber retelling of Beauty and the Beast is one of his best films yet. It’s visually stunning, and would have been a wonderful addition to this already strong lineup.

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Flee, Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised), and Attica

Will Win: Flee

Could Win: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Should Win: Attica

Should Have Been Nominated: Procession

 

One of the more interesting categories this year, as the two frontrunners in this category would both be unconventional winners. For many, the frontrunner is Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised), a documentary about the 1969 Harlem Cultural Festival from star producer Questlove. It’s the most decorated documentary of the year by quite a bit, and on paper, is probably the frontrunner. But I’m a bit skeptical. The concert documentary is a well-trod sub-genre, but it has never fared especially well at the Oscars. It would be ignorant to dismiss the strengths of Summer of Soul…but this is the category that went to fucking My Octopus Teacher last year, so I worry the narrative strengths of this film might go over a lot of Oscar voters’ heads.

 

That’s why I’m giving a slight edge to Flee. The powerful film about an Afghani refugee living in Denmark, has been a strong contender all awards season long, and is the only nominee with accolades to rival Summer of Soul’s. It’s a film that has already made history as the first film ever nominated in Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, and International Feature, and should be on voters’ minds because of this. It has a much better chance in this category than in either of the other two, and I can see some Academy members giving their vote to Flee here simply as a consolation for not voting for it in the other categories. I think the general trends of the Oscars in this category in particular gives Flee enough of an edge to upset the frontrunner.

 

That being said, Flee isn’t the only film with the potential to pull an upset. Flee and Summer of Soul were by far the buzziest titles heading into the Oscars, but their fellow nominees in this category are all excellent. Not only that, these five films really couldn’t be more different, and it’s hard to objectively judge one against the other four. Writing with Fire is inspiring, Ascension is fascinating, and Attica is incredibly powerful. Attica is my favorite as I’m writing this, but honestly I could pick any of the five on any given day. If voters actually watch all five of these, then it could go in any direction. Since it’s so close, I have to rely on precedent, but if any category has potential for a really shocking upset, it might be this one.

Procession

This was a great lineup, but I’d have loved to have seen Procession in the running as well. In recent years, there has been a very interesting trend where documentaries use the form to sort of blend fiction and reality, creating films that are wonderfully cinematic, and no less real than any other documentary out there (such as The Act of Killing and last year’s Dick Johnson is Dead). Director Robert Greene is one of the pioneers of such techniques, and his latest film Procession is one of his most powerful to date. The film follows six men who experienced sexual abuse from Catholic Priests, and gives them resources to make cinematic reenactments of their abuse, as a means of processing their trauma. It’s often uncomfortable to watch, but is a moving film that could have competed against any of the excellent films that scored nominations.

 

BEST EDITING:

Dune, King Richard, and The Power of the Dog

Will Win: Dune

Could Win: King Richard

Should Win: The Power of the Dog

Should Have Been Nominated: Nine Days

 

Editing is always a fascinating category, as its nominees tend to be a great indication of where the Academy’s preferences lie. Best Picture winners tend to be nominated in Best Editing more frequently than in any other category, including Best Director. But the Best Editing winners align with Best Picture far less frequently, as once the Academy as a whole gets a chance to vote, they get distracted by the flashier options in the lineup. Nothing about the editing in Dune is particularly notable more than any of the other nominees, but the film’s technical achievements as a whole will likely raise its profile here. Action movies tend to do really well in this category, and while I wouldn't call Dune an action movie, it's the closest thing to it amongst these nominees. But Dune certainly doesn’t have a stronghold over the category. King Richard rather surprisingly beat Dune at the American Cinema Editors Awards. This was surprising not just because Dune was the frontrunner, but because King Richard of all films doesn’t really have any fancy editing on display (I was rather surprised it was nominated over films like West Side Story and Belfast). The ACE win alone means it has to be in contention, but it feels like a fluke to me more than an indication of victory, although I could be wrong. Another film a lot of people see as a contender here is tick, tick...BOOM! because this category likes to award films with musical sequences (recent winners include Sound of Metal, Bohemian Rhapsody, La La Land, and Whiplash). But if it wins, it would be the first winner in over ten years to not also have a Best Picture nomination, so I’m hesitant to overestimate its chances. If any film deserves to win here, it would again be The Power of the Dog. This editing is lyrical and intelligent, creating its tense but languid pace, and the strength of the editing allows Jane Campion to assuredly tell her story without laboring over it.

 

Nine Days

 

As for what should have been nominated, I can’t think of better editing last year than Nine Days. It’s a fantasy film, and takes place in a supernatural place where souls exist before they get a chance to live. Yet, in a fun conceit, the aesthetic of Nine Days feels mundane and commonplace, juxtaposing nicely with the otherworldly concept. Yet Nine Days still feels fantastical precisely because of its editing, with intricate montages elaborate magical sequences that play out like a cinematic symphony. It’s impeccable editing, and it exemplifies how profoundly editing can affect a viewer without them even realizing it.

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

The cinematography of Dune, The Power of the Dog, and The Tragedy of Macbeth, showing some of the most beautiful ways for someone to be filmed from behind

Will Win: Dune

Could Win: The Power of the Dog

Should Win: The Tragedy of Macbeth

Should Have Been Nominated: Passing

 

This is a category that could have gone many ways, but has recently started to come a bit more into focus. The cinematography for Nightmare Alley is striking, but the fact that the movie has two distinct looks instead of one consistent one might work against it. The cinematography of West Side Story is a technical marvel, but the shocking snub of this film by the American Society of Cinematographers makes it hard to see it as a contender here. In fact, you’d have to go back to 2006 to find a year where the Oscar winner for cinematography didn’t get an ASC nomination. My personal favorite cinematography of the year was the stark black-and-white look of The Tragedy of Macbeth. I know some purists complain about how CGI was used to enhance the cinematography, but when it gives the film such a distinct look then I’m all for it, and I feel like Macbeth used cinematography as an integral part of its storytelling arguably more than any other film this year. But the lack of buzz for the film as a whole (it’s the only non-Best Picture nominee in the category) definitely hurts its chances. I think it’s certainly feasible that The Power of the Dog could win. Like I said way back in the Best Picture discussion, I think a lot of people are selling this movie short, and feel like it’s destined to pick up at least one award that people aren’t expecting. The cinematography is lush and strong, and should it win, Ari Wegner would be the first woman to ever win in this category. But for that to happen, it has to win over...you guessed it...Dune. Look, I know the whole appeal of Dune is its visual style, but I honestly was underwhelmed by it. Based on how people talk about it, I was expecting a far more stunning film, and none of the images from it have stayed with me. But I’m clearly in the minority, and its back-to-back wins at the ASCs and BAFTAs cemented its frontrunner status. It’s the one to beat.

 

Passing

 

This is the fourth year in a row with at least one nominee with black-and-white cinematography, and I’ve been so glad to see this category embrace that style in recent years. But with that trend on the rise, I really don’t understand how Passing was so overlooked in this category. This is camerawork that shows what black-and-white film can really do, as it looks vibrant and glamorous even without color. It’s some of the best black-and-white cinematography in recent years and, of the many categories this film should have been in contention for, this is one of the most glaring omissions.

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Dune, Nightmare Alley, and The Power of the Dog

Will Win: Nightmare Alley

Could Win: Dune

Should Win: Nightmare Alley

Should Have Been Nominated: The Green Knight

 

As the leading organization for production designers, the Art Directors Guild Awards are the best predictor for the Oscars. The only catch is that they divide their nominees by genre, which means that both Dune and Nightmare Alley won big at the ADGs this year. And while those wins mark them as the frontrunners, it’s a bit of a coin toss to determine which has the edge. The argument for Dune winning is that it’s the most technically-lauded film of the year. It’s a behemoth, and if it’s going to sweep the technical awards as it easily could do, this is going to be a key category for it to win. The Oscars is a numbers game, and it has big numbers on its side. Conversely, Nightmare Alley is nominated in far fewer categories, and predicted to win even less. Despite being a Best Picture nominee, this is the only category it’s seriously in the running for, and that might just be the best thing going for it. In recent years, the Oscars has found itself spreading out the awards instead of giving them all to one or two films. Last year, all but one Best Picture nominee picked up at least one award, and if that trend holds then I see Nightmare Alley picking up this one instead of Dune steamrolling over everything. It’s David vs. Goliath, and I’m expecting the smaller entity to triumph.

 

The Green Knight

 While A24 has become one of the most high-profile distributors of independent films, they are notoriously disinterested in campaigning for awards, and I often think that the Oscars would look very different if just a handful of A24 films had been with a different producer. Case in point: there’s a world where The Green Knight was nominated for multiple awards. While maybe too divisive to be a Best Picture nominee, this was one of the most striking films of the year, and with a savvy awards campaign, I could have seen it up for categories like cinematography, costume design, makeup & hairstyling, and of course, production design.

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Dune, No Time to Die, and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Will Win: Dune

Could Win: No Time to Die

Should Win: Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Should Have Been Nominated: Mandibles

 

No MCU film has ever won in this category before, so I’m counting out Shang-Chi and No Way Home. Bond films have traditionally fared even worse—No Time to Die is the first Bond film nominated for visual effects since Moonraker of all films. But that actually might be a point in its favor—its presence in the category marks it as enough of an anomaly that it could be a wildcard. But it’s going to take a lot to overtake Dune, which boasts a team that has previously won in this category (for Blade Runner 2049 and First Man) and has the added benefit of being in a film with Oscars clout beyond just this category. The last nominee is Free Guy, which is frankly lucky to be here.

 

If that paragraph seems brisk compared to the rest of my analysis, you’re right. This is a frustrating category. As technology has advanced, the sheer scope of what we can do with visual effects gets more incredible each day, but you’d never know it looking at this lineup. Some of the work on display is impressive, of course, but I find it uneven pretty much across the board, and nothing in these nominees surprised me or felt truly exemplary. I wanted to be blown away by the effects in Dune, for example, but the moments with the most potential to be spectacular felt so bland and watered down (I might never forgive Denis Villeneuve for hyping up the sandworm only for it to be dimly lit and barely present). My favorite of the five nominees is probably Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings—the CGI was laughably uneven when looking at the film as a whole, but the highest highs of its effects were better than anything else on offer here. Honestly, it makes me feel really crotchety, and my pick for what should have been nominated is, at least in part, my attempt at saying FUCK YOU to all these big budget movies that look the same. Over the many, many blockbusters that spent lots of money on visual effects, I’m picking Mandibles, a French comedy about two dudebros who find and take care of a fly the size of a small dog. 

 

Mandibles

 

I don’t know if Mandibles ACTUALLY rates as some of the best visual effects of last year, and it does seem kind of silly to be picking it out of nowhere, but that fucking fly is the single visual effect that I found most memorable out of any film in 2021. It FELT real. I felt like I was actually watching a real giant fly on screen, and that effect transported me into the world of the film more than anything of the nominees. It's a simple effect, but it's done really well, and I honestly couldn't think of any other film that could top it. Plus, this is a giant bug you CAN ACTUALLY SEE ON SCREEN, VILLENEUVE!

 

Really, Villeneuve? This is the "worm" you've been hyping all movie?

 

 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Cruella, and Dune

Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Could Win: Cruella, Dune

Should Win: Cruella

Should Have Been Nominated: Psycho Goreman

 

If you’re tired of seeing Dune get talked about so much, then you’re in luck! Dune was once the frontrunner here, but then it went home empty-handed at the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards. That shocking snub suggests that, of the technical categories, this is a clear weak spot. Instead, the new frontrunner for many is Cruella, which DID win at the MUAHS Awards, and features striking and creative work. It has the most distinct work on display of all of the nominees. That being said, this category often rewards physical transformation over creativity, which bodes well for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. This category’s history sets a pretty clear precedent: the last four winners were all for work where an actor was playing a real person. And, frustratingly, all involved fat suits. If you still don’t know why fat suits are awful, well, this has been written about SO MUCH that I’m going to direct you to a whole entire google search instead of just one specific article. But, like it or not, making an actor put on weight is seemingly the best way to win this category in the eyes of the esteemed Academy, and that means The Eyes of Tammy Faye is the smartest bet nomatter what the MUAHS says. Throw in the fact that Jessica Chastain is specifically playing a person KNOWN for outlandish makeup and, well, that just pushes this movie’s chances over the edge.

 

The titular role in Psycho Goreman

As I say every year, I am much more interested in character creation than physical transformation, and my favorite entries in this category are always going to be the more fantastical options. That’s why my pick for what should have been nominated is the bonkers alien comedy Psycho Goreman. You might not have heard of it before, but Psycho Goreman has all the makings of a future cult classic. It’s a really fun movie and features fantastic makeup work (including lots of whimsical and fearsome aliens) that is crucial to the success of the film as a whole.

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Cruella, Dune, and West Side Story

Will Win: Cruella

Could Win: Dune

Should Win: West Side Story

Should Have Been Nominated: A Boy Called Christmas

 

I think Cruella is going to walk away with at least one Oscar, so if it doesn’t win Makeup & Hairstyling, I think it has a good shot here. Considering it’s a film about a fashion designer, it is the film with the most emphasis on the clothes, and with designs by industry legend Jenny Beavan, it’s clear to see why this film is such a frontrunner. Its closest competition is Dune, as both films won top awards at the Costume Designer Guild Awards. Of all of the awards Dune is up for this year, this is the one I wouldn’t mind it winning. As far as the design elements go, the costumes were the most interesting to me, and I think did a lot of heavylifting when it came to crafting the world of Dune, and what the aesthetic of that world is in Villeneuve’s mind. Part of what makes this category particularly tough to judge this year is that this might be the most disparate group of nominees the Oscars has seen in a while. All five films are from different eras and have different strengths. If it really is a two horse race between Dune and Cruella, a lot of this is going to come down to personal preferences amongst Academy voters instead of a clear industry consensus.

 

The work across all five nominees this year is strong, but I wish West Side Story had a chance. The design work here is the least flashy of all five, but theatre veteran (and first time Oscar-nominee) Paul Tazewell creates some iconic pieces here, and every costume feels perfect. Anita’s bright yellow dress might be the single best costume piece of the year.

 

A Boy Called Christmas

It didn’t make much of a blip on anyone’s radar, but some of my favorite costumes of the year were in the children’s film A Boy Called Christmas. The costume design in this film is an eclectic mix of design, featuring lush period costumes like Cyrano, and more avant-garde looks like Cruella. The costumes helped these characters feel like they had jumped out of a storybook, while still existing as one cohesive design.

 

BEST SOUND:

Dune, West Side Story, and The Power of the Dog

Will Win: Dune

Could Win: West Side Story

Should Win: The Power of the Dog

Should Have Been Nominated: The Vigil

 

Look, if you’ve read this far you should know what to expect from these awards. Look to the guilds for guidance, and then bet on Dune. In this case, Dune has TWO guild awards going for it, winning big at both the MPSE Golden Reel Awards (which recognize sound editing) and the Cinema Audio Society Awards (which recognize sound mixing). Those wins mark it pretty clearly as the frontrunner: to win one award is one thing, but to win BOTH makes it the clearest choice here. That being said, this category is a bit of new territory. Last year was the first time that this category existed, since it had always been divided between sound mixing and sound editing. I wonder if Academy voters really know what to do with this merging, as they have to consider the film’s use of sound as a whole rather than individual achievement. If that’s the case, it opens the door for West Side Story, solely because it’s a musical and therefore features the most obvious use of sound out of all five nominees. That may be reductive, but then again this is the Academy, and voters aren’t necessarily known for going above and beyond to make an informed choice. If they were, then more nuanced work would have a better shot here, and that would easily make the winner The Power of the Dog. I cannot stress how technically well-made The Power of the Dog is, and it effortlessly uses sound in a way that would pass the casual viewer by, particularly in establishing a sense of menace for Benedict Cumberbatch's character. 

 

The Vigil

 

And speaking of menace, my favorite use of sound in 2021 was the horror film The Vigil. A lot of low budget horror films thrive on their use of sound, as it’s a relatively cheap way to create chills. The Vigil is a great example of this, and sound consistently guides us through the film’s terrifying journey, creating unseen monsters through the use of sound alone.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Dune, The Power of the Dog, and Parallel Mothers

Will Win: Dune

Could Win: The Power of the Dog

Should Win: Parallel Mothers

Should Have Been Nominated: The Novice

 

Original score can be a tough category to predict as the Academy doesn’t have a clear preference when it comes to style. Sometimes winners are more lyrical, and sometimes more atmospheric. On their own, there are benefits to all of these film scores, so I don’t think one has clearly emerged ahead of all the others as a distinct frontrunner. And whenever that happens, the best strategy to pick a winner is to use a process of elimination.

 

The films I think are least likely to win are Encanto and Parallel Mothers. Encanto’s score is great, but gets a bit overshadowed by the songs (which are not included as part of the score). Parallel Mothers is my personal favorite score of the five, and it recalls the grand, sweeping scores of the golden age of Hollywood. That stylistic choice is exactly what makes it so great, but might seem a bit outdated to the Academy. But the real reason I don’t see either of these scores winning is because these are the only two nominees not nominated for Best Picture. Being a Best Picture nominee isn’t a prerequisite to win this award, but it certainly helps, and in a year like this where the competition feels so tight, I think it’s a pretty crucial advantage. I also don’t think a win for Don’t Look Up is likely. Composer Nicholas Britell is a rising star within the industry, but this is far from his best work. It’s the only score that I couldn’t remember at all after watching the film (although, to be fair, I think my brain did try to block as much of Don’t Look Up from my mind as possible). So my frontrunners here are Dune and The Power of the Dog, both of which have incredibly distinct sounds that are crucial to the overall quality of the film. Radiohead’s Jonny Greenwood has quickly become one of the most interesting voices in the world of film scores, and The Power of the Dog is some of his best work. It’s a beautiful and haunting score, that I would love to see win. But, once again, I think Dune has an advantage. Composer Hans Zimmer is one of the most iconic people in the industry, but it’s been a while since he’s been triumphant at the Oscars. This is his 11^th nomination, but he has only won once (back in 1994 for the somewhat un-Zimmeresque score for The Lion King). It’s arguable that no one has done as much to change what movies sound like than Zimmer, and his score for Dune is both undeniably his sound, and an evolution of what that sound can be. On a subjective level, I find Zimmer’s work a bit overused and it no longer has the desired effect on me. But in recognition of a great career of work, a win for Dune would feel timely.

 

The Novice

 

While none of the nominees in this category are weak, there are a lot of wonderful scores which I wish could have gotten attention. Dickon Hinchliffe’s theme for Leda in The Lost Daughter was the most memorable musical refrain of the year for me, and I’m surprised it wasn’t ever really in the discussion. Antonio Pinto’s score for Nine Days is yet another example of this film getting unfairly overlooked. But my favorite score of the year was Alex Weston’s work for rowing team thriller The Novice. Its string-forward score is urgent and exciting, and would have added some needed vibrancy to this year’s lineup.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

Encanto, No Time to Die, and King Richard

 

Will Win: “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

Could Win: “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

Should Win: “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

Should Have Been Nominated: “So May We Start” from Annette

 

For a while, it looked like Disney had completely botched an easy win for this category. Oscar submissions were due before Encanto was released, and as a result, they didn’t know how audiences would react. Not wanting multiple songs from the movie to compete against each other, Disney decided to just submit one song from Encanto’s score to ensure it was nominated, and went with the touching and emotional ballad “Dos Oruguitas.” It’s a good song, and one I think everyone really likes. But it unfortunately is in the same film as a little song called “We Don’t Talk About Bruno,” which has become a downright cultural phenomenon and topped charts around the world. It’s safe to say that if it had been submitted, “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” would easily walk away with this award, but based on some bad decision making, this category is a lot more uncertain. That being said, I do think that “Dos Oruguitas” is a good song, and it’s likely that voters will flock to it in recognition of the film’s songs as a whole. You know that thing where the Oscars doesn’t recognize someone’s best work so they give them an Oscar for inferior work down the line? Well, if “Dos Oruguitas” wins, that might be the first time this sort of course-correction has happened so immediately.

 

It does face some tough competition, though, from Billie Eilish’s Bond song “No Time to Die.” The last two Bond songs have won this award, and for a long time “No Time to Die” seemed like it was destined to follow in its footsteps. And when I say a long time…I mean a long time. Due to COVID pushing back the release of “No Time to Die,” this song was released over two years ago. It’s a well-received song, and could DEFINITELY still win here, but it’s no longer the song of the moment. In the fight between these two songs, Encanto as a whole has a lot more momentum.

 

Also, let’s just acknowledge that Beyoncé is an Oscar nominee but somehow isn’t even a part of the awards conversation. Wild.

The cast of Annette singing "So May We Start"

I think it’s fair to say that the movie Annette doesn’t really work. This opera from the always innovative Leos Carax has many amazing elements, but doesn’t ever come together to be more than the sum of its parts. Which is a shame because I think some of those parts are really extraordinary. Adam Driver and Marion Cotillard give some great performances, and of course, the score by Sparks is really interesting and features several standout numbers. The song “The Conductor” is jaunty and memorable, and Cotillard’s ballad “Girl from the Middle of Nowhere” is heartbreaking, but the clear standout song is the opening number “So May We Start.” This song is just really, really great. Maybe too great. Once it was released prior to the film’s premiere at Cannes, I was so mesmerized by it that I was convinced there was no way this movie could be bad. Oh well, lesson learned to not make assumptions. But despite the failings of Annette as a whole, this remains my absolute favorite original song from any film of 2021.

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:

Audible, The Queen of Basketball, and Lead Me Home

Will Win: The Queen of Basketball

Could Win: Lead Me Home, Audible

Should Win: Lead Me Home

Should Have Been Nominated: A Broken House

 

The documentary short nominees tend to be either human interest stories/biographical profiles, or investigative journalism. This year, none of the more investigative films made the cutoff, and it will be interesting to see if this is the start of a trend for the category, or just a fluke this year. Regardless, this lineup is maybe the most accessible that this category has been in years, which I think is a positive development.

 

Netflix has quietly become a heavyweight in this category, having had at least one nominee in this category every year since 2016. This year is their best showing yet, with a whopping 3 of the 5 nominated films being Netflix releases. They’re all strong, but of these three I think that the Afghani film Three Songs for Benazir is the least likely winner, as this category typically goes to American-produced films. The other two definitely have a shot. Audible profiles the lives of the champion football team at the Maryland School for the Deaf, particularly star athlete Amaree McKenstry-Hall. With CODA so prominent in the Best Picture race, Audible is very much the “other” movie about deafness in the race, and that might help give it an extra edge with voters. Like with CODA, it’s wonderful to see deaf people on screen in an authentic way, but this film also avoids many of the pitfalls that have earned CODA criticism from some within the deaf community. The final Netflix contender is Lead Me Home, which examines the lives of multiple homeless people living on the West Coast. It’s by far my favorite nominee of this group. It can be tough for the film industry to tackle a topic like homelessness, but Lead Me Home does so with grace. While Lead Me Home does serve as an examination of how homelessness can happen, it’s primarily concerned with telling the stories of the people it puts on screen, allowing its subjects to be vulnerable with dignity, and tell their stories in an authentic and moving way. It’s a truly transcendent film.

 

With Netflix so present in this race, however, there’s a good chance that its films will cancel each other out, as Netflix isn’t campaigning for any one film over the others as far as I’m aware. That opens up the door for one of the other nominees to take the category. When We Were Bullies is an independent film with no studio backing, and while I love that it’s nominated, it’s going to be tough for it to win against the heavyweights in the category. But The Queen of Basketball has a real shot. It’s produced by The New York Times, which also is a frequent provider of films for this category. This year, the investigative films it’s known for didn’t make the cut (I was surprised that the excellent Day of Rage, which broke down the events of the January 6^th Capitol Attack, was left out) meaning that all of the Times’ significant campaign heft is behind The Queen of Basketball alone. The film tells the fascinating story of little-known basketball great Lusia Harris and features a creative team of previous Oscar-nominees (director Ben Proudfoot was nominated in this category last year) and big-name celebrities (none other than Shaquille O’Neal serves as an executive producer). Netflix shouldn’t be counted out, but it’s the smart pick here.

 

A Broken House

 

One of my favorite films from the shortlist for this category was the compelling A Broken House, which tells the story of Syrian architect Mohamad Hafez. Living in the United States, unable to return to his home in Syria, he creates a series of life-like miniatures until of the buildings in Damascus, until he assembles a tiny version of the city. It’s the type of quirky human interest story that tends to do well in this category, but it carries with it a lot of emotional resonance which gives it a gravitas beyond other films of its ilk. It’s really beautiful, and the category would have been better for its inclusion.

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT:

Robin Robin, The Windshield Wiper, and Bestia

Will Win: Robin Robin

Could Win: The Windshield Wiper

Should Win: Bestia

Should Have Been Nominated: Bad Seeds

 

I’m really intrigued by this category this year, as it’s one of the most unconventional lineups in recent Oscar history. The winners in this category tend to either elicit extreme emotions in people (like last two most recent winners If Anything Happens I Love You and Hair Love) or come from a high profile studio like Disney or Pixar. This year, while these films are all lovely, none of them offers a visceral emotional punch one expects from a winner. It’s also the first year since 2009 that neither Disney nor Pixar have any film represented. This means that, for the first time in a while, we have a really open field, and it’s uncertain where the Academy’s preferences will fall. If they roughly follow previous trends, however, then the winner will be Robin Robin. While not a Disney or Pixar film, this film is a co-production of Netflix and Aardman animation, giving it by far the highest-profile studio backing (and both studios have won in this category before). It’s also the only one of the five nominees specifically aimed at children, which might help it stand out amongst the others. For fans of adult-focused animation, there are 4 different films to choose from. For the significant number of Academy members who wrongly believe animation is just for kids, Robin Robin is their only choice. While I think it’s potentially the most boring pick of the five, it’s a decent enough film, and if it wins it solidifies Netflix’s presence as a heavyweight in this category.

 

Like I said, if it’s not Robin Robin, it’s hard to know what it will be. I do think it’s unlikely to be BoxBallet. It’s the most narratively simple of the shorts and probably wouldn’t have been a frontrunner regardless, but the fact that it’s from a Russian animator and production team probably hasn’t helped its chances. I also think that Affairs of the Art from prolific animator Joanna Quinn is going to have trouble finding broad support from Academy voters. My personal favorite of the bunch is Bestia, a Chilean short that is really creepy and weird and haunting and…yeah is also going to be pretty divisive (but oh it’s so brilliant!). That leaves The Windshield Wiper, a poetic series of short vignettes about love. It doesn’t follow a linear narrative and I worry voters won’t really get it, but the animation is really gorgeous, and that alone might win it some support. And animator/director Alberto Mielgo is a rising star in animation, having served as the art director for Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and having his work featured on Love, Death & Robots. Even if The Windshield Wiper doesn’t win, Mielgo is a talent to keep an eye on.

 

Bad Seeds

 My favorite animated short of the year was Bad Seeds, which made it onto the shortlist. One minute into it, and I already loved it. I also already knew there was no way it was ever going to be nominated. It’s the type of really weird fare that the Oscars doesn’t really get, but that the genre of animated shorts is a perfect breeding ground for. It’s not going to be for everybody, as its lack of a nomination proved, but it’s the type of project that makes me love short films. If this idea had been feature-length it would be unbearable. But its short runtime is the perfect length for this particular brand of surrealism.

 

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

Please Hold, The Long Goodbye, and On My Mind

Will Win: Please Hold

Could Win: The Long Goodbye, On My Mind

Should Win: On My Mind

Should Have Been Nominated: Dig Up My Darling

 

Last year, this category went to the Netflix film Two Distant Strangers, which used sci-fi to examine police brutality against the Black community. If you read my coverage of last year’s Oscar you might remember that I was not a fan of this film and, frankly, I think it ranks as one of the worst winners in the history of the Oscars. I’m still upset about it. Luckily, none of the films nominated this year are anywhere near as bad as Two Distant Strangers was, although that’s definitely a low bar to clear. But it still looms large, as the frontrunner in this category—Please Hold— definitely has echoes of Two Distant Strangers.

 

Please Hold is about Mateo (Erick Lopez), a man in the near future who is arrested by a police drone on the way to work. Not aware of committing any crime, his attempts to speak to a human and/or even find out what accusation has been brought against him prove impossible to accomplish. It’s a harrowing situation, and a clear indictment of the United States’ mess of a justice system. Like Two Distant Strangers, it aims to use sci-fi to shed light on an important social issue. And while it is a much better made film than Two Distant Strangers, and manages to not be wildly offensive like Two Distant Strangers, I still think it falls short. Because the prison system in the United States is so completely fucked up, I was left unsure why this film needed the sci-fi angle at all, as it didn’t ever feel like it went far enough. If anything, the futuristic elements kind of diluted the point. Most of the difficulties Mateo faces stem through technological troubles and the depersonalization of relying on technology. By making computers so villainous it distracts from the fact that many people are in the same situation today when they can be in touch with people. To make the problem about technology just muddies the intentions of the film. Also, I was a bit confused by the fact that nobody in Mateo’s life seemed at all concerned about him disappearing for three months. Not his friends, not is employer, not even his parents, who barely register concern when he finally gets a chance to speak to them. It’s an ambitious, well-intentioned, and ultimately capable film. But it doesn’t hold up the more you think about it and feels like a lower tier episode of Black Mirror. I also think it’s going to win. Again, it’s much better than Two Distant Strangers, but the fact that Two Distant Strangers won just last year shows that there’s appeal for this sort of film, and that the Academy is willing to overlook narrative issues for the sake of what they see as an original concept. More crucially, it’s the only American short film, and one of only two English language nominees. That’s really important, because while this category reliably has multiple non-English language nominees every year, films in English have won in 8 of the past 10 years. And one of those years was when there were 0 nominees in English, so it’s a bit of an anomaly. Just the fact that Please Hold is an American film means more for its chances of winning than any measure of quality.

 

That means that the other frontrunner in this category is going to be The Long Goodbye, which features characters speaking in English, Urdu, and Arabic. The film, about a Muslim family in England who are gathered for a wedding, only to have their celebration disrupted by a violent, right-wing gang. It’s a harrowing film, and it’s the kind of bleak subject matter that tends to score nominations but not win in this category. But it also features the star power of Oscar-nominee Riz Ahmed, who serves as both lead actor and producer of the film. Having a celebrity in a short film doesn’t always translate to a win, but it does mean that The Long Goodbye shouldn’t be completely counted out.

 

If any of the nominated films which are not in the English language have a chance of winning, it would have to be On My Mind. The Dress and Ala Kachuu—Take and Run are both good, but like The Long Goodbye, are really bleak. While On My Mind is a sad film, it has more of a tearjerker appealing sadness than an oh-shit-the-world-is-a-terrible-place” existential sadness. The Danish film follows Henrik (a moving Rasmus Hammerich), a man who wanders into a bar on a Tuesday morning and becomes strangely fixated on singing a song on the karaoke machine. As the film goes on, it becomes increasingly clear that there is something very personal about this, and while the payoff is somewhat predictable, it’s undeniably effective. It’s my favorite nominee, not only because it’s the least depressing of the five, but because it’s the one that most feels like it belongs as a short film. The other four nominees do tell a complete story, but they at times felt rushed, or felt like they were being made as a test run before a feature film. Out of all of the films, On My Mind was the only one that felt perfect right where it was. And I think its emotional success has a lot to do with that efficiency.

 

Dig Up My Darling

 

As for what should have been nominated, my favorite live action short film of the year was Dig Up My Darling. Directed by David Lowery of The Green Knight fame, this short was presented as part of the anthology film The Year of the Everlasting Storm (I don’t know if it was actually eligible, but another entry in that anthology made the documentary short subject shortlist, so I think it’s valid). The film follows a woman who discovers a series of old letters which lead her to find a lost burial site. It’s beautiful and haunting, and highlights why Lowery is seen as such a rising talent within the industry. Once a director hits it big, it’s rare that we get to see them play with shorter formats, but Dig Up My Darling proves how beneficial the short form can be. Lowery’s filmmaking is wonderfully assured, and the story is an excellent one which sings in this shorter runtime.

 

 

Well, you did it. You made it to the end. Thank you for going on this journey with me. I think I was a bit more bold this year than I normally am, and there are quite a few categories where I diverged from what other pundits are saying. Will that strategy pay off? What will I get right and what will I get wildly wrong? We'll find out on Sunday! For now, I leave you with another shot of the giant fly from Mandibles because it honestly was just so cool.

That's all, folks!