Okay, here we go. Oscar nominations are announced on Tuesday, and I just got these in under the wire. Here are my predictions for the nominations in all categories for the 95th Academy Awards! It should be an exciting lineup—the way the nominations fall is going to tell us a lot about the state of this race.
Two notes. Equally important. 1) These are simply my thoughts on who WILL be nominated, not who I think should be nominated. Don’t worry, there will be plenty of upcoming content on this blog where I share my opinions (and you can get a headstart by reading about my favorite films of the year!) 2) I really did write these last minute, so I have not proofread anything I’ve written. Please don’t judge me for inevitable mistakes.
BEST PICTURE:
My Predictions:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Elvis
Tár
The Fabelmans
Avatar: The Way of Water
All Quiet on the Western Front
Top Gun: Maverick
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Woman King
Contenders:
Living
Women Talking
Babylon
Aftersun
Till
Longshots:
RRR
Decision to Leave
Triangle of Sadness
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Nope
She Said
The Whale
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
The two surest bets for Best Picture nominations are The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once. Both have received vast critical acclaim and have managed to appear on just about every precursor list up until now. Close behind are Elvis, Tár, and The Fabelmans—the latter of which was once seen as the frontrunner to win it all but (for now at least) seems to be settling for nominee-only status. The sixth film I see as a surefire bet to get a nomination is Avatar: The Way of Water, the box office juggernaut which will likely follow in the footsteps of its predecessor to do very well in numerous categories, including here. Any of these six films getting left off of the Best Picture ballot would be an unprecedented upset.
After these six, I feel pretty comfortable about predicting All Quiet on the Western Front and Top Gun: Maverick. Despite Maverick’s commercial success this summer, I was dubious when it was being heralded as a Best Picture contender. But it has managed to not lose momentum and has exceeded my expectations in an awards season that has leaned heavily on box office clout. I also have increasingly good feelings about All Quiet on the Western Front. The German war epic distributed by Netflix might not have as much buzz as the other films on this list, but as time has gone on this season I’ve felt stronger and stronger that it’s going to sneak in here. The Academy has been much kinder to international films in recent years, and with how Best Picture nomination voting occurs, I think this film easily has the support needed. It’s done pretty well in the latter part of the awards season—with a particularly impressive showing at the BAFTAs—and should be a contender not just here but in many of the technical categories as well. It’s maybe a little gutsy to rate it so high, but I feel confident in my prediction. It might be the biggest surprise of nomination day.
That leaves two slots left which, frankly, could go in any direction. I selected Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and The Woman King, and while I’m happy with those predictions, I don’t think they’re certainties by any means. The first Black Panther film became the first (and so far only) Marvel Cinematic Universe film to earn a Best Picture nomination, but it did so partly because of the excitement surrounding the incredible world designed by director Ryan Coogler and his team. Coogler is still great, but despite his best efforts, the second film feels far more like your average MCU film than the first one—and the reaction to it and buzz surrounding it is far more muted. The voting bloc of the Academy that is going to respond to the major franchise actions movies is more likely to look at Avatar and Maverick, which could hurt Wakanda Forever’s chances. The Woman King is in an even more dubious position. Another box office success, The Woman King should have been one of the biggest movies of the year, but I feel like its buzz has been drowned out by some of the bigger (and again, more franchised) names I’ve already mentioned. If it’s going to be in this lineup, it needs considerable support behind both director Gina Prince-Bythewood and leading actress Viola Davis and—as I’ll soon discuss—neither of those are assured nominations at this point. I do think it has a good chance at a nomination, but I could just as easily see it getting all but shut out of the Oscars. It’s in a precarious position at the moment, with a good-but-not-great scorecard based on precursor awards.
The problem, as always, is that even if I’m not feeling positive about Wakanda Forever and The Woman King, I don’t know what film will take their place. I very nearly put Living on the list above both of them—this quiet drama that features a knockout performance from Bill Nighy can blame its late release date for the lack of audience recognition, but it’s the sort of film the Academy responds to and could easily be the sort of unexpected but not out-of-the-blue nominee that the Oscars are known for. I’m also holding out at least some hope for Women Talking—Sarah Polley’s Mennonite drama was at one point seen as a Best Picture frontrunner due to its excellent reception on the film festival circuit. Over time, it seems like critics have responded to the film more than voters, but it’s a film that’s not without its supporters and I’d love to see its early buzz float it back into the race. Babylon and Till are—similar to Women Talking—films that seemed to have much better chances at a nomination a month or so ago. For Babylon, things immediately went south once the film was released and the critical response was less than desired. But I don’t think it would be wise to completely count it out (unlike films in a similar position, such as Empire of Light and White Noise which were highly anticipated but not even in the conversation anymore). Then there’s Till, which out of any film I’ve mentioned thus far FEELS like the sort of Oscar bait that usually claims a few of the nomination spots. In theory it should be a lock, but that hasn’t materialized thus far, and right now its best bet for an Oscar nomination lies on the shoulders of its star Danielle Deadwyler. A bit of a dark horse that I could actually see pulling off a nomination is Aftersun. Charlotte Wells’ debut has been one of the best reviewed films of the year, and has pulled off a few upsets at precursor awards ceremonies. If it was being distributed by a company other than A24, I think a legitimate campaign could have been launched to improve this film’s chances, but it’s a film with a strong cheering section that could pull off an upset.
Then we have my longshots, which are films that I would be very surprised to see get a nomination, but also which I feel should not be counted out of the conversation entirely. If All Quiet on the Western Front doesn’t earn its expected Best Picture nomination, that opens the door for another international film to take its place. Decision to Leave is its closest competition in the Best International Film category, and its strong showing at the Cannes Film Festival keeps it in the running here. Speaking of Cannes, Palme d’Or winner Triangle of Sadness is primarily in English, but feels very much like an international film, and while it might be too weird for the Academy, might be primed to pull off an upset if its fans come out in full force. Best Picture feels like a stretch, but there are a few categories where I don’t think this arthouse darling should be counted out. The last international film that has gotten quite a bit of discussion is RRR. The Indian “historical” action film is one of the most unexpected hits of the year, but the fact that it didn’t dominate the shortlists in the technical categories (how did it not get shortlisted for Visual Effects of all things?!?!) means the Academy might not love it as much as its fans hoped. And while it’s had a decent awards seasons, its inclusion in the Best Picture category has been few and far between. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery definitely got a Best Picture push when it was included in this category at the PGA Awards (a reliable Oscars bellwether) but the Oscars aren’t always the biggest fan of sequels, and we already have several buzzy sequels in the running. Nope is another box office success that shouldn’t be completely counted out here, but the buzz surrounding it has thus far not lead to the biggest awards haul this year. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio was at one point gaining some momentum as the rare animated film to get attention here, and Netflix did put quite a bit of money behind its campaign. After Nightmare Alley overperformed with nominations last year, it’s clear that the Academy has officially fully embraced del Toro—but based on how the season has gone, it will likely have to settle as simply being the frontrunner for animated feature. Lastly we have two smaller indie films: She Said and The Whale. I really wish that She Said had more of a shot, as it’s a great film and it would be nice to see the Oscars reward a film that is so necessarily critical of the film industry’s greatest shame. But perhaps because of the film’s uncomfortable subject matter, She Said has sadly not gotten its due this season and it would be a big, unexpected jump from the Academy if it gains recognition here. As for The Whale, the film has not been as well regarded as the performance of its leading actor, but after its surprise nomination at the PGA Awards, it’s possible it could sneak in.
BEST DIRECTOR:
My Predictions:
James Cameron—Avatar: The Way of Water
Todd Field—Tár
Steven Spielberg—The Fabelmans
Martin McDonagh—The Banshees of Inisherin
Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Contenders:
Joseph Kosinski—Top Gun: Maverick
Baz Luhrmann—Elvis
Edward Berger—All Quiet on the Western Front
Gina Prince Bythewood—The Woman King
Sarah Polley—Women Talking
S.S. Rajamouli—RRR
Upsets:
Damien Chazelle—Babylon
Ruben Östlund—Triangle of Sadness
Park Chan-wook—Decision to Leave
Charlotte Wells—Aftersun
To consider Best Director, we have to look at Best Picture. It’s incredibly rare that the Best Picture winner is not recognized in this category, so the most likely Best Picture contenders definitely have an edge. In my Best Picture analysis, I named the 6 films that I feel are locks for a nomination, and it’s no surprise that my predictions in this category are comprised entirely of films within those six. The 6th film I mentioned in that group is Elvis, and I could see Baz Luhrmann sneaking in here for his first ever nomination in this category, but the fact that he missed out at the DGA Awards cemented my feeling that he's not a frontrunner here. Speaking of the DGA Awards, the only nominee who I didn’t include here is Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick, who didn’t make my predictions but who I would absolutely not be surprised to see in this lineup. I’m also not counting out Edward Berger—as I’ve already mentioned, I could see All Quiet on the Western Front be the biggest surprise of nomination day. This category tends to reward more technically impressive films, and that combined with the strong international contingent that’s represented here is a good sign for his chances at pulling off an upset. Lastly, it’s pretty telling that the potential nominees I’ve mentioned thus far have all been men. This category has been primarily male-dominated, but has been slowly (very, very slowly) improving in the last few years. Women have won this award the past two years, and if voters remain conscious about representation while filling out their ballots, perhaps this will help directors such as Gina Prince-Bythewood and Sarah Polley (and potentially even Charlotte Wells). In the past few years, we’ve also seen a rise in directors receiving nominations despite their films not being included in Best Picture. Typically, this happens for non-American directors (like Pawel Pawlikowski and Thomas Vinterberg), showing the influence of the international voting bloc here. That opens the door for Park Chan-wook and Ruben Östlund, and could especially help out S.S. Rajamouli, as RRR features the sort of special effects wizardry of which voters particularly take note. That sort of in-your-face directing could also help Damien Chazelle. If Babylon overperforms with Academy voters, previous-winner Chazelle could pull off an upset. Even the film’s harshest critics would agree that Chazelle does a LOT of directing in Babylon, and whether that directing is good or not might be besides the point.
BEST ACTRESS:
My Predictions:
Cate Blanchett—Tár
Michelle Yeoh—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Viola Davis—The Woman King
Michelle Williams—The Fabelmans
Ana de Armas—Blonde
Contenders:
Danielle Deadwyler—Till
Olivia Colman—Empire of Light
Margot Robbie—Babylon
Long Shots:
Rooney Mara—Women Talking
Tang Wei—Decision to Leave
Emma Thompson—Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Dark Horse:
Andrea Riseborough—To Leslie
This is a particularly competitive category this year, and the only locks at this point are Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh. Michelle Williams and Viola Davis have both had some major misses on their pre-Oscars scorecard, which means they’re vulnerable here, but after Blanchett and Yeoh they’ve been the most consistent nominees and either of them not making the lineup would be a surprise. That means there’s one spot left and it’s a bit of a toss-up to guess who’s going to get it. The two most likely contenders are Ana de Armas for Blonde and Danielle Deadwyler for Till. In general people like Till and particularly like Deadwyler’s work, but the lack of flashiness in the project that hurt the film’s Best Picture chances are the reason I personally felt I had to leave Deadwyler off of my list. As for de Armas, Blonde is one of the most divisive films of the year, and the negative reactions to the film don’t exactly help her, but she has managed to float above thoughts of the film itself the entire awards season. She has very quickly become a prominent name in the industry, and I ultimately have to give her the edge over Deadwyler. In a similar boat are Margot Robbie and Olivia Colman, both of whom deliver performances that have received more acclaim than the films themselves. Neither have the scorecard that de Armas and Deadwyler do, but both are also previous nominees that the Academy clearly responds to. There are often at least a couple of surprises in the acting categories, and based on name recognition alone, both Robbie and Colman have potential to pull an upset here. There had been some early buzz for Rooney Mara—the only cast member for Women Talking not submitted in the supporting category—but in such a competitive year, a performance that is so much a part of an ensemble is going to struggle. Tang Wei is phenomenal in Decision to Leave, and if the Academy gives that film more love than expected she could sneak in at the last minute. Lastly, Emma Thompson recently got a BAFTA nomination for Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, which puts her back into the running—but it’s probably a case of too little momentum too late.
Finally, I have to talk about Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie. To be honest, I strongly considered not doing this post this year, given how late I’m getting it out. But the campaign around Riseborough is so fascinating that it singlehandedly convinced me to do it. Riseborough is, I think, one of the best film actors working today. She’s incredible in pretty much everything she does, and her roles are wildly different from project to project. This year, she starred in a quiet drama called To Leslie about a recovering addict trying to start a new life. The film didn’t gain much attention, and Riseborough’s performance hasn’t exactly been gaining recognition, outside of a nomination at the Independent Spirit Awards. I love the Spirit Awards, but considering that last year exactly 0 of the 10 leading performance nominees were recognized by the Oscars, this this isn’t exactly the best sign for Riseborough’s Oscar chances. But, something very interesting has been happening. Right as Oscar voting opened up, multiple celebrities—out of the blue—started posting on social media about Riseborough’s performance. It started with Gwyneth Paltrow, but soon such notable figures such as Kate Winslet, Amy Adams, Cate Blanchett, Charlize Theron, Edward Norton, Jane Fonda, and many more started talking about this movie; oftentimes with the same wording, and very pointedly addressing their comments towards the Academy. To be clear, none of these celebrities have anything to do with To, Leslie, and it’s making people take note of a film that was on almost nobody’s radar until now (even Barack Obama updated his end-of-year list to include To, Leslie). If Oscar voters do check out the film, Riseborough has a shot. I personally didn’t love the movie (it’s really depressing) but her work is not only strong, it’s the sort of subject material that the Oscars loves to reward. I don’t know if Riseborough has a shot at all. But as an Oscars prognosticator, it’s a fascinating wrinkle in the race. It’s an unconventional approach, and while it wouldn’t be the first Oscars campaign to utilize social media, it would definitely be the first one to use EXCLUSIVELY social media. It might mean nothing, it might mean that Riseborough will have a better shot for future performances, and it just might land her a truly unprecedented nomination. If it does, it would be a game changer for sure. And, for the record, Riseborough is great in To Leslie, but is even better in another film this year called Please Baby Please. If you’re not familiar with her work, check these two films out and you won’t believe it’s the same person!
BEST ACTOR:
My Predictions:
Colin Farrell—The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser—The Whale
Austin Butler—Elvis
Bill Nighy—Living
Paul Mescal—Aftersun
Contenders:
Jeremy Pope—The Inspection
Hugh Jackman—The Son
Tom Cruise—Top Gun: Maverick
Diego Calva—Babylon
Gabriel LaBelle—The Fabelmans
Adam Sandler—Hustle
At this point, the Best Actor race is a toss-up between three contenders: Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser, and Austin Butler. All are going to be nominated. While not as much of a certainty as the other three, Bill Nighy is the clear fourth pick for a nomination for his incredible work in Living. But while these four have risen to the top, the fifth spot is anyone’s guess. Typically, my default when I’m unsure about the acting categories is to look at the SAG Awards. But this year, the fifth Best Actor spot went to Adam Sandler in Hustle. He’s great in it, but considering he didn’t get a nomination for his much more buzzed-about performance in Uncut Gems a few years ago, I don’t see that nomination repeating at the Oscars. Instead, I see two scenarios for how this final spot will be chosen. In the first scenario, the Academy will reward the leading performance in a film that’s in the Best Picture conversation—in this case that would mean Tom Cruise, Diego Calva, or Gabriel LaBelle, with Cruise’s nostalgia factor making him the most likely of these three. In the second scenario, the Academy has the opportunity to reward a performance in a film that is otherwise not getting a lot of attention—such as Paul Mescal in Aftersun, Jeremy Pope in The Inspection or Hugh Jackman in The Son. All three of these would have benefited from a SAG nomination, but I don’t think any should be counted out. I’ve talked already about how Aftersun could potentially have more support than most prognosticators are giving it credit for, and in many ways its best chance at a nomination is for Mescal here. As a rising star in the industry, this might just be his time.
And here’s something cool—with the exception of Cruise and Jackman, every other person I’ve mentioned has never been nominated before. It’s very rare for an acting category to be composed of entirely first-time nominees—I genuinely couldn’t even tell you the last time that happened. And while that alone might mean that Cruise has a better shot than I’m giving him credit for, I’m really rooting for an all first-timers lineup come Oscar night!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
My Predictions:
Kerry Condon—The Banshees of Inisherin
Angela Bassett—Black Panther: Wakanda
Stephanie Hsu—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau—The Whale
Jessie Buckley—Women Talking
Contenders:
Jamie Lee Curtis—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly de Leon—Triangle of Sadness
Nina Hoss—Tár
Janelle Monáe—Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Longshots:
Carey Mulligan—She Said
Claire Foy—Women Talking
Condon and Bassett have been the two most reliable names in this lineup all season long, and should easily land nominations here as well. Hong Chau has also performed consistently all season for her work in The Whale (absolutely the best part of the movie) and I think her scorecard is enough for her to be a solid bet at the Oscars as well. Everything Everywhere All at Once is bound to get at least one nomination here as well…but the question is for who? Both Stephanie Hsu and Jamie Lee Curtis have done well here (and both nabbed SAG nominations) and I definitely think it’s possible for both to make the final lineup together. But I could also see a scenario where voters place their votes behind one over the other. That might be Curtis, who earned a BAFTA nomination while Hsu was left off of the longlist. But I hold out hope that, if there’s only room for one of them, the Academy will gravitate towards Hsu, who has a much more substantial role in the film which hopefully makes up for her not being as recognizable name as Curtis in the industry. Again, they could easily both be recognized, but I only included Hsu because I’m holding out hope that Jessie Buckley makes it in. Buckley received her first nomination last year, so is definitely on the Academy’s radar, and if anyone from Women Talking’s phenomenal ensemble cast has a chance it’s her (although if Women Talking performs better than I’m expected, both Buckley and co-star Claire Foy could make a showing). If Buckley doesn’t take the fifth spot, there are a few other potential performances that could find their way comfortably into this group. The most exciting would be Dolly de Leon, whose performance in Triangle of Sadness at the age of 53 is truly groundbreaking. Strong critical reviews for her work have transferred into accolades which are a bit too erratic for me to feel strong about her Oscars chances, but consistent enough that I’m not counting her out (and am definitely rooting for her). Its likely the Oscars are going to love Tár, and if they do, that might provide a boost for Nina Hoss. And while I don’t think Glass Onion hasn’t done enough to be an Oscars heavyweight (although future Benoit Blanc mysteries could definitely be in consideration) Janelle Monáe’s performance is the clear standout out of all of the supporting cast, and has picked up a few critical nominations that definitely have kept her in the conversation. Lastly there’s BAFTA nominee Carey Mulligan. Once again, I’m sad about how She Said has been largely ignored by the Academy, but Mulligan is a favorite of the Academy’s and hopefully her understated work can get on the Academy’s radar even if the film as a whole did not.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
My Predictions:
Ke Huy Quan—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson—The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan—The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano—The Fabelmans
Eddie Redmayne—The Good Nurse
Contenders:
Brad Pitt—Babylon
Ben Whishaw—Women Talking
Judd Hirsch—The Fabelmans
Tom Hanks—Elvis
Ralph Fiennes—The Menu
At this point, this award is Ke Huy Quan’s to lose. His nomination is a certainty. Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan both do excellent work in The Banshees of Inisherin, and both have been as consistent awards season presences as Quan. Their nominations are also a certainty. From here things get trickier, but I do think Paul Dano has a good shot at landing here for The Fabelmans, especially after he landed a crucial SAG Award nomination. I could easily see him being joined by Judd Hirsch also for The Fabelmans—his scene-stealing performance was seen as an early favorite, but I don’t know if Hirsch’s momentum has sustained itself for the long awards season. I could also see Ben Whishaw and Brad Pitt sneaking in if Women Talking and Babylon exceed expectations. But ultimately, I’m giving the fifth spot to Eddie Redmayne for The Good Nurse. This is a movie nobody really cares about, and Redmayne’s nod at the Golden Globes was one of the biggest headscratchers of those nominations. But when he also got a SAG nomination, it suddenly made him a contender instead of a longshot. And without a solid case for the other contenders, I’m going to place him in as the sort of confusing nomination that frequently ends up in this category (think Robert Duvall in The Judge). But the fact that I’m choosing Redmayne pretty much by default shows you just how much of a wildcard this final spot is, which means there could be a major surprise. While Tom Hanks’ performance in Elvis has been much maligned, he’s still Tom Hanks, and the Academy hasn’t exactly shied away from questionable performances in bad prosthetics in the past. And I’m including Ralph Fiennes as a contender simply on instinct—he’s not really picked up much attention outside of the Golden Globes, but The Menu is the sort of movie that exists on the Oscars’ periphery, and has done well enough that it will at least be on voters’ attention. Fiennes gives a compelling performance that is the sort of thing voters might respond to and include on their ballots on a whim.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
My Predictions:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Tár
The Fabelmans
Elvis
Contenders:
The Woman King
Aftersun
Triangle of Sadness
Decision to Leave
Babylon
Nope
Armageddon Time
Once again, I refer to my Best Picture predictions, where I spoke of the six films which I see as guaranteed nominees. Five of those feature original screenplays, and I see them taking all five spots here. For Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tár, and The Fabelmans, the screenplays in particular stand out as being crucial to the success of those films. The same isn’t true of Elvis, which means it’s going to be the most vulnerable here. If it doesn’t make it, that opens the door for films like The Woman King and Babylon, especially if they’re in the running for Best Picture. It also means, we could get a weird nominee. Nope and Armageddon Time have largely fallen out of the Best Picture conversation, but could still do well here. Once again, Aftersun is my biggest question mark of the awards season, and I think other than Paul Mescal in lead actor, this category is the best show it has of entering the field. And then we have Triangle of Sadness and Decision to Leave, which could be dark horses here if the international voting bloc can give them enough support.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
My Predictions:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Women Talking
She Said
The Whale
Contenders:
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
White Noise
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
The Original Screenplay category is likely going to be made up of mostly Best Picture contenders, but the Adapted Screenplay category is a bit trickier. Most of the Best Picture frontrunners with adapted screenplays are the box office heavyweights—films like The Way of Water, Wakanda Forever, and Maverick. These, along with All Quiet on the Western Front, are films where the screenplay isn’t exactly the main thing people are talking about when they leave the theater. None of these films should be counted out of the running entirely, but the question is just how many of these spots will go to Best Picture contenders, and how many spots will Academy voters give to films that otherwise will not be as well represented. For example, neither Avatar not Black Panther received screenplay nominations for the original films, even though they otherwise did quite well with nominations. I think that trend might continue this year, which is why I’ve tentatively left all of these contenders off of my predictions. As far as sequels go, I do have high hopes for Glass Onion in this category. The first Knives Out received its only Oscar nomination for its screenplay, and this screenplay is even better. I also think that movies like Living, Women Talking, and She Said which are critical darlings that currently sit on the sidelines of the Oscar conversation have a good shot at this category—fans of these films will definitely rally behind them here. The same argument can be made for The Whale, although it remains unclear just how much support this film has outside of the performances. It’s in my fifth prediction spot at the moment, but do think it’s vulnerable to one of the blockbusters. There also is some buzz in this category for White Noise. Noah Baumbach’s later has been one of the biggest disappointments of the awards season, but Baumbach has a better Oscars track record for his screenplays than for any other category. And while I think Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio hasn’t generated enough buzz for Best Picture, the efforts of Netflix’s campaign for it might lead to it getting some recognition here.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:
My Predictions:
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Mexico)
Saint Omer (France)
Contenders:
Close (Belgium)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Eo (Poland)
Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
Corsage (Austria)
Longshots:
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Last Film Show (India)
The Blue Caftan (Morocco)
Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
On its surface, this category seems to have six frontrunners competing for five spots. All Quiet on the Western Front and Decision to Leave are the two heavyweights right now, and either being left out of contention would be pretty shocking. Argentina, 1985 has also been performing really well all season, and its surprising win at the Golden Globes has only solidified its position here. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths got a pretty lukewarm critical reception, but should still make the lineup thanks to the name recognition of director Alejandro G. Iñárritu, an Academy favorite. That leaves two films—France’s Saint Omer and Belgium’s Close—which I see as battling it out for the final spot. It could go either way, but ultimately I’m giving the edge to Saint Omer which has been gaining just a bit more attention, especially for director Alice Diop.
While these six films are definitely the frontrunners, there are still some acclaimed films in the running. Poland’s submission Eo is probably the best reviewed film in contention, but I think I might be too weird for the Academy (although I’d love to be wrong about this). Cambodia’s Return to Seoul started appearing on quite a few end-of-year lists, and Austria’s Corsage stars Vicky Krieps, whose name recognition could raise that film’s chances. The biggest wildcard here is probably Joyland. This film was notoriously banned in a lot of theaters in its home country of Pakistan due to having various LGBTQ+ characters and themes, and some recognition by the Academy would be a wonderful statement. I’ve heard only incredible things about it, and while it doesn’t feel like it has as much buzz as the other films I’ve mentioned, the fact that it hasn’t been released in the U.S. yet might be the reason why. I could see it taking a spot from one of my predictions, I just don’t know which one. But one of the things I love about this category is that it frequently has some surprises up its sleeve. Remember when Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom was nominated here? None of the films on the shortlist should be considered out of contention.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
My Predictions:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Turning Red
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Wendell & Wild
Contenders:
Strange World
The Sea Beast
The Bad Guys
Wild Cards:
Inu-Oh
Little Nicholas, Happy as Can Be
Mad God
Apollo 10 ½: A Space Age Childhood
Due to the lockdown in 2020, there was a renewed interest in animation from a production standpoint, as these were films that could be made while observing social distancing. We’re starting to see the effects of this investment, and 2022 was truly an excellent year for animation. Hopefully this year’s nominees will reflect that. Right now, the frontrunner is Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, although Pixar’s Turning Red is right on its heels and will definitely be joining it as a nominee. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is a phenomenal sequel which has been picking up momentum since its December release, and A24’s Marcel the Shell with Shoes has been doing great all awards season long. These four films are all great, all very different, and all deserving of recognition here. The question is what film will join it in the fifth spot. A few months ago, I’d have assumed that Disney’s entry Strange World would be a shoo-in, but it received a decidedly lukewarm reception and has failed to pick up some necessary precursors leading up to the Oscars. Netflix has put all of its campaign efforts behind Pinocchio, but has three more contenders in Wendell & Wild, The Sea Beast, and Apollo 10 ½: A Space Age Childhood. Of these three, Richard Linklater’s Apollo 10 ½ is definitely the least likely nominee. It actually was initially deemed ineligible for this category, when the Academy decided that the rotoscope style it uses was not “real animation.” Thanks to outcry from the industry, that decision was reversed, so it’s great to see Apollo 10 ½ in contention at all, and while it’s probably still not high profile enough to make it to the winner’s circle, that controversy might at least have sparked an interest in voters’ minds. Still, amongst the Netflix entries, it faces stiff competition against the far more conventional films The Sea Beast and Wendell & Wild. A sequel to The Sea Beast was recently announced, which might give it some momentum, but I’m thinking the name recognition of producer Jordan Peele might push Wendell & Wild over the edge to take the fifth spot. I also wouldn’t count out The Bad Guys—a DreamWorks film that might have better chances than I’m giving it credit for. It feels like it didn’t make much of a cultural impact, but it’s actually the third highest-grossing animated film of 2023, and it features a surprisingly smart screenplay and a solid Rotten Tomatoes score.
Best Animated Feature does occasionally feature some out of left field nominees, and there are a few films on the sidelines that just might upset the bigger names. Phil Tippett’s disturbing Mad God is a wildly inventive nightmare which might have some hidden industry support. Little Nicholas, Happy as Can Be is a charming international film which might sneak into the category like previous nominees The Breadwinner, My Life as a Courgette, and Ernest & Celestine. Lastly, Masaaki Yuasa’s glam-rock opera Inu-Oh was one of the most surprising nominees at the Golden Globes, and I’d love to see it pull off a similarly shocking upset here.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
My Predictions:
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Navalny
All That Breathes
Moonage Daydream
Bad Axe
Contenders:
Fire of Love
Descendant
The Territory
Last Flight Home
Don’t Count Out:
Retrograde
Children of the Mist
Hidden Letters
A House Made of Splinters
The Janes
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song
Documentary Feature is usually a pretty exciting category, and one that can feature a lot of surprises. There has been a lot of buzz surrounding All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, from director Laura Poitras who is documentary royalty. Navalny is the sort of political thriller that tends to do well here, and features a jaw-dropping I-can’t-believe-they-caught-that-on-camera moment that voters will undoubtedly respond to. Ever since Summer of Soul won last year, the door has opened for other archival music films to do well here, and Moonage Daydream has received quite a lot of acclaim. Rounding out my predictions are All That Breathes—a poetic look at the environmental crisis—and Bad Axe, a powerful and personal film which examines racial tensions amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.
All of these are great, but in such a strong year for docs, I can’t stand 100% behind any of these predictions. An argument really could be made for any of the fifteen docs on the shortlist—especially well-received films like Descendant, The Territory, and Last Flight Home. My biggest gamble here is not picking Fire of Love, a profile of a husband-and-wife team of volcanologists. It’s a great movie, and one of the most decorated documentaries of the year, but I fear it’s going to be too experimental and quirky for the Oscars’ more traditional tastes.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:
My Predictions:
The Whale
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Elvis
Contenders:
Babylon
Blonde
Crimes of the Future
Emancipation
Amsterdam
Makeup & Hairstyling is an incredible artform, which can add so much value to a film…which makes it ESPECIALLY frustrating that this category has essentially become Best Fatsuit. For the past five years, fatsuits have been at the center of the winning campaigns in this category, and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue this year. The Whale, The Batman, and Elvis all heavily feature fatsuits (especially The Whale) and should be safe here. I also think the effective war makeup of All Quiet on the Western Front and the creative and stunning work in Black Panther: Wakanda have a good chance of making it into this category and, as a plus, aren’t incredibly offensive and harmful the way that fatsuits are!!!
I could definitely see the Hollywood glamor of Babylon making its way into this category. And while I think it’s going to be too weird for them, maybe the Oscars will recognize the excellent elevated body horror of Crimes of the Future. Who knows, maybe they’ll see the word “Hairstyling” next to the title “Blonde” and not be able to resist nominating it. But in general, I feel pretty good about my predictions for this category, as much as my predictions annoy me.
Best Original Score:
My Predictions:
Babylon
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
Contenders:
The Woman King
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
All Quiet on the Western Front
Devotion
Nope
Avatar: The Way of Water
She Said
Lol:
Don’t Worry Darling
This is another tough category, for sure, with no real surefire bets, and plenty of opportunities to surprise (except for Don’t Worry Darling…sorry John Powell). I’m most confident in my prediction of Justin Hurwitz’s score for Babylon—he won an Oscar in this category for La La Land and many have cited the score for Babylon as one of the film’s strongest points. John Williams and Alexandre Desplat are also Academy favorites, and their work for The Fabelmans and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is the sort of fare that I think voters will gravitate towards. I absolutely loved Carter Burwell’s score for The Banshees of Inisherin, which might be why I think it has a better chance in this category than others are giving it. But also, this is a category that is frequently linked to Best Picture more than people realize (the winner for Best Original Score has also been nominated for Best Picture in 17 of the last 20 years). So if The Banshees of Inisherin can get a nomination here, that bodes well for its eventual Best Picture chances. Lastly, I’m picking Hildur Guðnadóttir’s score for Women Talking—it’s a really cool score from someone who is quickly becoming one of the most recognizable composers in the industry. Still, I’m not confident in these picks at all. Guðnadóttir isn’t the only rising star here—Terence Blanchard (The Woman King), Nicholas Britell (She Said) and Ludwig Göransson (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) are also definitely ones to watch. And I’m hoping to see Chandra Dancy nominated for the film Devotion. While not the most high-profile title in contention, Dancy would be the first Black woman to be nominated in this category.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
My Predictions:
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
Contenders:
“Good Afternoon” from Spirited
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
“Stand Up” from Till
“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
Also Shortlisted:
“My Mind & Me” from Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me
“New Body Rhumba” from White Noise
“Time” from Amsterdam
“Dust & Ash” from The Voice of Dust and Ash
“Til You’re Home” from A Man Called Otto
This year’s Original Song shortlist features three songs that are actually performed as musical numbers in their respective films—those are “Naatu Naatu,” “Ciao Papa,” and “Good Afternoon.” Of these three, it’s “Naatu Naatu” and “Ciao Papa” that are the clear favorites. “Naatu Naatu” is truly an unforgettable part of RRR, and could make history as the greatest live performance at the Oscars ever. “Ciao Papa” is a sweet ballad which is by far the best song in Pinocchio, and is the sort of song the Academy has frequently rewarded as of late. While “Good Afternoon” is a fun song (and is penned by previous Oscar winners in this category), I think it might get beaten out by some of the star power that lends its name to other songs in contention. This year’s lineup of potential nominees features numbers from superstars such as Lady Gaga, Rihanna, David Byrne, Mitski, Selena Gomez, Taylor Swift, and Drake, and that sort of name recognition is a great way to get recognized by the Academy. Of the star-backed numbers, I think the songs by Lady Gaga and Rihanna are the most likely to make the lineup. Lastly, we have “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman which is going to get a nomination solely because it’s written by Diane Warren. This is the weirdest game the Academy plays. Every year, Diane Warren writes a song for a movie nobody has heard of, and every year the Academy nominates it even though it’s (usually) only okay and even though they know she’s never going to win. She has received a record 13 nominations without a win in this category. It’s a bizarre tradition, but she has gotten a nomination in this category eight of the last nine years so there’s no reason to think it’s going to stop now.
BEST SOUND:
My Predictions:
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Contenders:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Moonage Daydream
The Batman
Babylon
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
As we get into the more technical categories, you’re going to find me getting pretty repetitive. The technical categories love action movies and war movies, so with a record number of action movies expected to be on the Academy’s radar, you’re going to see me saying the names Top Gun: Maverick, All Quiet on the Western Front, and Avatar: The Way of Water an awful lot. There’s really no reason to expect these three films to dominate the technical categories, although it will be exciting to see them compete against each other on Oscar night itself. In this particular category, the fact that Elvis is a film about music gives it an extra edge, and I do think the use of sound in Everything Everywhere All at Once is exemplary enough for the Academy to take note. Ultimately, I think Wakanda Forever and The Batman are going to be beaten out of this one, but I would love to see some recognition for Moonage Daydream, which would become the first documentary to be nominated in this category.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
My Predictions:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Nope
Contenders:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Batman
Jurassic World Dominion
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Thirteen Lives
As I said in the previous category, you’re going to see my first three picks here showing up in a lot of the technical categories. That leaves just two spots for other nominees. Of the two Marvel films in contention, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is definitely going to be the one most favored by the Academy, but I think the effects of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness are a bit showier and a bit more likely to gain recognition here. After all, the first Doctor Strange movie was nominated in this category, but the first Black Panther was not despite getting a Best Picture nomination. I’m also putting Nope here. Honestly, The Batman is probably a better bet, but if I’m correct this is the only category that Nope really has a shot at, and I just think the movie has enough fans that they’re going to rally here. Plus, the effects were great!
BEST FILM EDITING:
My Predictions:
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
All Quiet on the Western Front
Contenders:
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Glass Onion
Nope
Tár
Another technical category, so I am once again recognizing Maverick, Way of Water, and All Quiet on the Western Front. But I also think the frenetic energies of Elvis and Everything Everywhere All at Once really put the editing front and center. Given that this category is frequently influenced by the Best Picture lineup, they should do well here. That also means that any potential Best Picture contender shouldn’t be counted out here. The editing for The Fabelmans is pretty excellent, and I think would have made my predictions in a year that didn’t have so many action movies. Nonetheless, I think it could easily take the place of any of the films I put forward. As for The Banshees of Inisherin, the editing isn’t as flashy, but as a potential Best Picture winner, it shouldn’t be counted out here. While missing out on a nomination here isn’t necessarily a bad sign, should it score a nomination here, that’s a really good indication that it has a lot of support from within the Academy. This is going to be a crucial category to watch in terms of seeing which films the Academy has their eyes on.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
My Predictions:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Contenders:
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The Batman
Babylon
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Nope
Out of all of the categories this year, Best Production Design might just be the most competitive. There are a lot of high profile films with distinct production designs, and this has made it one of the hardest categories to predict. It’s so difficult that I’ve actually left Top Gun: Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front off of my list, despite predicting them for almost every other technical category. I do think The Way of Water is enough of a juggernaut that it will be rewarded here, and even though I think Wakanda Forever is going to miss out on a lot of categories, the production design specifically is too strong to be ignored. Elvis and The Fabelmans would be major exclusions should they miss out on a nomination, and the campaign for Everything Everywhere All at Once has actually put the production design front and center, which I think will help it secure the final slot. Still, like I said, it’s a competitive category. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and Babylon are definitely both strong contenders here, and I think this category might be The Batman’s best shot at receiving any Oscar glory. In such a competitive year, there are so many strong options that no matter what happens, I’m going to be surprised by the final lineup. In fact, the thing that will surprise me the most is if I somehow guess all five correctly!
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
My Predictions:
Top Gun: Maverick
The Fabelmans
Empire of Light
Bardo, False Chronicle on a Handful of Truths
All Quiet on the Western Front
Contenders:
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Batman
Nope
Babylon
Avatar: The Way of Water
The cinematography of Top Gun: Maverick is arguably the most talked-about aspect of that film. It’s a shoo-in for here. I also think the cinematography in The Fabelmans from Oscars stalwart Janusz Kaminski is a pretty safe bet. While Empire of Light has very little chance of winning, it’s unwise to bet against Roger Deakins, whose fellow cinematographers take every chance to recognize him here (and with good reason!) I’ve seen a lot of prognosticators divided on how well Bardo will do with the Oscars, but if it should be recognized in any category it’s here. For the last spot, I’m going to continue to bet on All Quiet on the Western Front to do well, but I’m definitely not sure, and in particular, I could see Elvis or Everything Everywhere All at Once stealing the spot away from it. The Batman, Nope, and Babylon are three films that in general I’m assuming won’t do well with the Academy, but if I’m wrong and they all do better than my expectations, this would be a strong category for all of them. Lastly, I think cinematography is The Way of Water’s weakest technical element, but it might get a nomination here just by default.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
My Predictions:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Babylon
Elvis
The Woman King
Contenders:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Women Talking
Living
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Avatar: The Way of Water
A great way to predict this category is to look at the Costume Designers Guild Awards. The CDGAs divide their film awards into three categories—Contemporary, Period, and Sci-Fi/Fantasy films—and typically a nomination in one of those categories is going to be a must if you’re going to gain Oscars recognition. In general, contemporary films have a much rougher path to the Oscars than films in the other categories, but of this year’s nominees, I see Glass Onion and Women Talking as having at least some chance at a nomination, due to how distinct the costumes have to be for both films. Still, I think they’re going to lose out to nominees in the other categories. It feels like a Period Film year, with the costumes from Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (a film literally about couture fashion), Babylon, Elvis, and The Woman King being the exact sort of stuff the Oscars likes. Of the CDGA nominees in the Sci-Fi/Fantasy category, the one I see most likely joining the period films is Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, although The Way of Water and Everything Everywhere All at Once shouldn’t be completely ruled out. Lastly, the only film I’ve mentioned above that did NOT get a CDGA nomination is Living. The costumes are done by Sandy Powell, a three-time Oscar winner and fifteen-time nominee, and her name alone should include her in the Oscars conversation. I’ll chalk her snub by the CDGAs to the period film category simply being so crowded, and we’ll have to see if the Oscars follow suit.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM:
My Predictions:
As Far as They Can Run
38 at the Garden
Nuisance Bear
Stranger at the Gate
Anastasia
Contenders:
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Angola Do You Hear Us? Voices from a Plantation Prison
Haulout
The Flagmakers
Holding Moses
American Justice on Trial: People v. Newton
Happiness Is £4 Million
Shut Up and Paint
How Do You Measure a Year
We’ve reached everybody’s favorite categories: THE SHORT FILMS! If you’ve read my Oscars coverage before, you know I’m a big champion of the short films, although they are admittedly quite hard to predict. While I do have a little bit to go on in the other short film categories, I’m honestly going purely based on instinct with this one, as I haven’t had a chance to watch most of the nominees yet. But even if I had, I don’t know if it would have helped, as this is an unpredictable category which gets more competitive each year as streaming services are embracing short-term journalism. Whatever the nominees end up being, I’m excited to see the lineup and hope this trend of a strong Documentary Short Film category continues for years to come.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:
My Predictions:
Le Pupille
Ivalu
The Night Ride
The Lone Wolf
An Irish Goodbye
Contenders:
Tula
Warsha
The Red Suitcase
Nakam
The Right Words
All in Favor
Almost Home
The Treatment
Plastic Killer
Sideral
The two frontrunners here have to be Le Pupille and Ivalu, as they’re the two films with the biggest names behind them. Le Pupille comes from established director Alice Rohrwacher, is produced by Alfonso Cuarón, and is even distributed by Disney. The names behind Ivalu may be less recognizable, but still carry some clout here; both director Anders Walter and producer Kim Magnusson won in this category a few years ago for their film Helium. In a notoriously difficult category to predict, this is enough to indicate them as frontrunners. I’ve seen a few of the other shortlisted films, and of them, could see both The Night Ride and The Lone Wolf playing well with the Academy, and wouldn’t be surprised to see either make the list. My final prediction has to go to The Irish Goodbye for the simple reason that it’s the only shortlisted film that’s in English. This category tends to be quite international in its nominees, but trends towards the English language when it comes to its winners. For that reason alone, I think The Irish Goodbye might be one to watch. But with so many of these titles not available to view, I’m not able to put my predictions up with too much confidence.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
My Predictions:
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
New Moon
Ice Merchants
Steakhouse
The Debutante
Contenders:
My Year of Dicks
The Flying Sailor
The Garbage Man
Black Slide
Sierra
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
It’s Nice in Here
Passenger
More Than I Want to Remember
Save Ralph
I can unironically say that this is one of the most exciting categories of the year for me. When the shortlist was announced, it was exciting to see that no major studios had any nominees in play. For the first time in my memory, there was no Netflix, no Disney, and no Pixar. Which means that the weird little films that so often capture my heart and make me look forward to this category each year will get to be fully celebrated! The closest we have to a big studio release is The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse, which is distributed by Apple and will likely land a nomination here. I also have high hopes for New Moon, which I have not yet seen, but which I think has an advantage thanks to the involvement of actor/producer Colman Domingo. Of the animated short films I’ve had a chance to watch, I think the most clearly Oscar-friendly is the gorgeously animated Ice Merchants, about a father and son that live in the mountains. If Oscar voters can get past the dark subject matter, I also could see Steakhouse doing quite well here. There are a few other good options I’ve gotten a chance to watch (such as The Flying Sailor and The Garbage Man) but I’m going out on a limb and picking The Debutante as my final entry simply because the animation itself looks gorgeous.
And I’m going to end the discussion of this category, and indeed of all of my Oscar predictions, by talking about My Year of Dicks. This short film is something truly special, and while I think its brilliance might be lost on older Academy voters, I’m hoping I’m wrong. It would make me so happy to see My Year of Dicks become an Oscar-nominee. And not just because it would be hilarious to hear that title at the ceremony. It is inventive and innovative and a far more satisfying watch than most feature films that I saw this year. Oscar nomination or no, it’s definitely one to check out.
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