I Try To Predict the 2017 Oscar Nominees Because I'm Insane

Well, another Oscar season is done. After all my analysis, and all of my hard work, I ended up predicting two thirds of the Oscar winners correctly, and I wear my "barely passing" badge with pride. Of a more pressing concern, the end of the Oscars means that I must once again try to come up with content that's not related to the 88th Academy Awards.

So let's talk about the 89th Academy Awards.

That's right, about a year in advance, I'm going to foolishly attempt to predict the nominees for next year's Oscars. At this time, film distributors are already thinking about next year's Oscar campaigns, and there are always lots of films that, on paper, are already clearly going to be contenders. At this point last year, people were already guessing that Bridge of Spies, The Revenant, and ultimate Best Picture winner Spotlight were going to be nominated for Best Picture. At the same time, Room was seen as a long shot, and absolutely no one would have expected Mad Max: Fury Road's Oscar dominance. Plus, there were plenty of films that, at this time of the year, seemed like Oscar gold but which ultimately fizzled out, such as Suffragette, Freeheld, and Concussion. Most amusingly for me, the film Sea of Trees, starring Matthew McConaughey, was being considered a major Oscar contender at this time last year...until it got booed at Cannes and will probably never get a theatrical release.

So, what I'm saying is that I in no way expect these predictions to be accurate, but it's fun to speculate. Some of the films I mention are going to inevitably end up being terrible, and some might not even be released this year. And there are going to be plenty of movies which come into play during the awards season that no one has even heard of yet. Basically, if these predictions end up being way off, I'm saying that you should cut me some slack, but if they end up being accurate, you should immediately accept that I am a wizard with intense psychic powers. It's win win! And without any further ado, let's dive into this ridiculous experiment and see my super early predictions for the 89th Academy Awards!

BEST PICTURE:

After a strong reception at Sundance, The Birth of a Nation has become the early "film to beat" for the 89th Academy Awards.

Two titles emerged out of the Sundance Film Festival with lots of buzz: Nat Turner biopic The Birth of a Nation and Kenneth Lonergan's drama Manchester by the Sea. Given the acclaim both of these received, they seem like pretty safe bets for the Oscars race, and especially in the light of the recent #OscarsSoWhite controversy, I imagine The Birth of a Nation will be particularly well-received. Another indication of a strong Oscar contender is pedigree, and Martin Scorsese, Clint Eastwood, Ang Lee, and Woody Allen all have offerings this year. Eastwood in particular has an Oscar-friendly film with Sully, starring Tom Hanks portraying famous hero pilot Chesley Sullenberger. Lee's entry this year is based on a novel, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk, and could benefit from the sense that Lee is overdue (despite winning Best Director twice, none of his films have ever won Best Picture). Woody Allen has been pretty hit and miss with the Oscars recently, but his film Cafe Society might be a dark horse contender. Scorsese's upcoming Silence is also a likely nominee, considering that anything he directs is automatically going to be on the Academy's radar (that Hugo scored a Best Picture nomination is proof of that). Speaking of Hugo, I think that we might once again see a children's movie score a Best Picture nomination because of its director next year. The BFG, directed by Steven Spielberg, looks like it could be really fantastic. And if that doesn't perform as well as I'm expecting, I also see Jon Favreau's The Jungle Book as a potential contender, as that also looks like it could be excellent.

A title that has been getting a lot of attention is Passengers, a sci-fi film from The Imitation Game's director Morten Tyldum starring Oscar favorite Jennifer Lawrence and everybody favorite Chris Pratt. There's also a lot of buzz about The Light Between Oceans, based on the novel of the same name starring Michael Fassbender and recent Oscar winner Alicia Vikander. There are high hopes for two historical drama romances, the first being A United Kingdom about a British woman (Rosamund Pike) who marries the ruler of Botswana (David Oyelowo). The second is The Promise, where a love triangle forms between Christian Bale, Oscar Isaac, and Charlotte Le Bon during the last days of the Ottoman Empire. One of my more anticipated films this year is La La Land, a musical directed by Whiplash's Damien Chazelle which stars Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone. Two years ago, Whiplash came out of nowhere to be a formidable Oscar film, and I think a musical could be right up his alley considering the musical emphasis in Whiplash, and an earlier obscure film of Chazelle's called Grand Piano.

There's also the usual Oscar buzz surrounding movies about historical figures. Lyndon B. Johnson has become a surprisingly popular figure recently and is going to be played by Woody Harrelson in the film LBJ, directed by Rob Reiner. Oliver Stone is also hoping for Oscar glory with Snowden, a film which was initially going to be released this year, but was pushed back (presumably because Stone hadn't finished it yet). The Oscars love literary adaptations, which could bode well for The Girl on the Train and The Sense of an Ending, and the Academy loves movies about issues, which might scores a point for Miss Sloane, a movie about gun control starring Jessica Chastain. Chastain is also in another potential Oscar contender, The Zookeeper's Wife, which is directed by Whale Rider's Niki Caro.

Lastly there are some wild cards. If Finding Dory is as strong a Pixar sequel as Toy Story 3, it could easily be nominated. Denis Villeneuve's sci-fi film Story of Your Life could be a surprise critical success, as could Money Monster, a thriller directed by Jodie Foster. Michael Keaton has starred in the last two Best Picture winners, and he's back this year in The Founder, a biopic about the founder of McDonald's. And the last film that's currently on my Oscar radar is Deep Water, based on a documentary, which will follow Colin Firth as he sails around the world.

AND THE NOMINEES WILL BE:
The Birth of a Nation
Manchester by the Sea
Silence
Sully
La La Land
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
The BFG 
The Light Between Oceans
A United Kingdom
Passengers

BUT THEY ALSO MIGHT BE:
The Promise
LBJ
Finding Dory
Miss Sloane
The Sense of an Ending
The Founder
Money Monster
The Jungle Book
The Zookeeper's Wife
Story of Your Life
Snowden
The Girl on the Train
Cafe Society
Deep Water


BEST DIRECTOR:

Clint Eastwood having a chat with Tom Hanks while filming Sully.

Considering the typical overlap between this category and Best Picture, the contenders are very much the same in this category so I won't go into as much detail. In fact, the only director I've listed whose film I DIDN'T list in the Best Picture category is the great Pedro Almodovar, who scored a surprise Best Director nomination for Talk to Her, and will be back this year with a film called Julieta. Obviously big names like Scorsese, Eastwood, Lee, and Spielberg are going to be in play, but the Academy also does like newcomers, so I think that Nate Parker and Damien Chazelle both have a good chance of scoring their first nominations. There's also been a lot of talk about how so few women have been nominated for this award, and there are several prominent female directors who should hopefully be a part of the conversation this year. Jodie Foster is stepping behind the camera for Money Monster. There's also Niki Caro, whose film Whale Rider was a surprise hit years ago, and who hasn't really made a major feature film since, but might be back with The Zookeeper's Wife. Lastly, there's Amma Asante, who is a relative newcomer (although she directed Belle from a couple years ago) whose work on A United Kingdom puts her in the position to potentially be the first woman of color to be nominated in this category.

AND THE NOMINEES WILL BE:
Nate Parker: The Birth of a Nation
Martin Scorsese: Silence
Ang Lee: Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Damien Chazelle: La La Land
Clint Eastwood: Sully 
 
BUT THEY ALSO MIGHT BE:
Steven Spielberg: The BFG
Amma Asante: A United Kingdom
Morten Tyldum: Passengers
Kenneth Lonergan: Manchester by the Sea
Derek Cianfrance: The Light Between Two Oceans
Jodie Foster: Money Monster
Denis Villeneuve: Story of Your Life
James Marsh: Deep Water
Niki Caro: The Zookeeper's Wife
Oliver Stone: Snowden
John Madden: Miss Sloane
Rob Reiner: LBJ
Ritesh Batra: The Sense of an Ending
Pedro Almodovar: Julieta
Woody Allen: Cafe Society
  
BEST ACTOR:

I have high hopes for the musical La La Land, starring Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone.

The best indicator we have to go on is that this category tends to reward portrayals of real people. For the past three years, four of the five nominated performances have been based on actual people (compared to, in those same years, a maximum of two nominees being based on real people in the Best Actress category). That bodes well for Tom Hanks in Sully, Woody Harrelson in LBJ, Nate Parker in The Birth of a Nation, and David Oyelowo in A United Kingdom. This could also be good for Joseph Gordon-Levitt in Snowden, although the film's pushed back release date worries me, which is why I've ranked it lower than I think most oddsmakers would. Other portrayals of real people include Colin Firth in Deep Water, although the film seems like it's going to be pretty small scale and is a longshot to be a major player at this point. There's also Don Cheadle as Miles Davis in Miles Ahead, but the initial reaction to this film has been decidedly muted which could hurt his chances.

Someone who has gotten a far stronger initial reaction to their performance is Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea, who seems likely to be in the conversation here, as early buzz from Sundance has put him in a great position for the awards season. If The Light Between Oceans and La La Land do as well as I think they will, we might see nominations for their leading men, Michael Fassbender and Ryan Gosling respectively, both of whom have been nominated before but not won. If The Promise does well, then it could potentially have two actors in the running: Christian Bale and Oscar Isaac. One of them might be moved to the supporting category, but it's hard to tell which one that would be. Martin Scorsese has had a good track record with performers getting nominations, and Silence star Andrew Garfield is certainly talented enough to potentially earn his first nomination after being snubbed for The Social Network. Meanwhile, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk stars a complete unknown named Joe Alwyn, who might be a surprise entrant should the movie do as well as expected.

The Sense of an Ending and Money Monster are wild cards, but if they gain momentum after their releases, there might be buzz for their stars (Jim Broadbent and George Clooney, respectively). We also have Michael Shannon as a father who discovers his son has superpowers in the soon to be released indie sci-fi flick Midnight Special. It's not typical Oscar fare, but this role could really speak to Shannon's significant strengths and could build momentum if it is well received. There's also Lion, where Dev Patel plays a man trying to locate his adopted parents. Very little is known about it at this point, so it's not on anyone's radar, but I feel it could potentially be an awards season dark horse. Lastly, let's take a look at the two children's movies which I've said could be Oscar contenders. The Jungle Book star Neel Sethi might be a breakout star, although the Oscar track record with child actors is decidedly iffy. There's also Mark Rylance in The BFG. Fresh off his Oscar win for Bridge of Spies, Rylance definitely has the Academy's attention and might be the first motion-capture performance to receive a nomination if the Academy is willing to consider it.

AND THE NOMINEES WILL BE:
Tom Hanks: Sully
Casey Affleck: Manchester by the Sea
Nate Parker: The Birth of a Nation
Woody Harrelson: LBJ
Ryan Gosling: La La Land
 
BUT THEY ALSO MIGHT BE:
Andrew Garfield: Silence
Michael Fassbender: The Light Between Oceans
David Oyelowo: A United Kingdom
Oscar Isaac: The Promise
Christian Bale: The Promise
Joe Alwyn: Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Jim Broadbent: The Sense of an Ending
Colin Firth: Deep Water
Michael Shannon: Midnight Special
George Clooney: Money Monster
Joseph Gordon-Levitt: Snowden
Don Cheadle: Miles Ahead
Dev Patel: Lion
Neel Sethi: The Jungle Book
Mark Rylance: The BFG


BEST ACTRESS:

Meryl Streep might score an incredible 20th Academy Award nomination this year for Florence Foster Jenkins

The Best Actress category is almost always more difficult to predict than the Best Actor category, as the nominees tend to fit into less of a seemingly concrete mold. It's rare that a dark horse nominee makes it into Best Actor, but the Best Actress category often has one or two in contention (like Charlotte Rampling this year, or Marion Cotillard last year). That's why my predictions here are focusing on some more unconventional Oscar movies, such as perennial nominees Jennifer Lawrence and Amy Adams in the sci-fi movies Passengers and Story of Your Life. It's also never wise to bet against Meryl Streep, and she's back in the race this year playing notoriously awful opera "singer" Florence Foster Jenkins in a movie accurately named Florence Foster Jenkins. This role has the potential to be akin to her portrayal of Julia Child, and might earn her another record-making Oscar nomination in turn.

On the more conventional side, we see Alicia Vikander in The Light Between Two Oceans, Emma Stone in La La Land, and Rosamund Pike in A United Kingdom. All of them have been nominated before, and all are in films which seem like they could be in the Academy's favor. We also have Emily Blunt in The Girl on the Train and Rampling in The Sense of an Ending--both literary adaptations which might end up being awards season favorites far more than I've predicted. Jessica Chastain, who was last nominated for Zero Dark Thirty, stars in both Miss Sloane and The Zookeeper's Wife, and either one could end up getting her recognition again this year.

On the wild card side, we have the young Ruby Barnhill in The BFG, although again the Academy's record with child actors is dodgy. Natalie Portman is playing Jackie Kennedy in a movie called Jackie, but it's unseen at the moment if that movie will even be finished in time for the Oscars next year. Another movie that could potentially do better than I'm expecting is Hidden Figures, the true story of the black, female mathematicians who were responsible for the launch and safe return of astronaut John Glenn. Even less is known about this movie than the others I've mentioned, which is why I'm not discussing it more, but I'm hoping that this film ends up being a surprise hit, and if it's successful, there might be Oscar nominations in the works for Taraji P. Henson and Octavia Spencer. Lastly, there's Naomie Harris, who I thought should have been a supporting actress contender for her work in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, and who's starring in Moonlight, based on a play by Tarell Alvin McCraney.

AND THE NOMINEES WILL BE:
Jennifer Lawrence: Passengers
Meryl Streep: Florence Foster Jenkins
Amy Adams: Story of Your Life
Alicia Vikander: The Light Between Oceans
Emma Stone: La La Land
 
BUT THEY ALSO MIGHT BE:
Emily Blunt: The Girl on the Train
Rosamund Pike: A United Kingdom
Jessica Chastain: Miss Sloane
Jessica Chastain: The Zookeeper's Wife
Natalie Portman: Jackie
Ruby Barnhill: The BFG
Taraji P. Henson: Hidden Figures
Octavia Spencer: Hidden Figures
Charlotte Rampling: The Sense of an Ending
Naomie Harris: Moonlight

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR & ACTRESS:

Patrick Stewart has early buzz for his performance in Green Room.

The supporting categories are a lot harder to assess this early on. It's far more likely for an unexpected entry to emerge here thanks to a scene-stealing performance (for example, absolutely no one could have predicted that Sylvester Stallone would have been nominated at this time last year). Plus, it's not even clear who actually is a supporting role, and many of the names I mentioned above could show up in the supporting categories as well. Ultimately the sheer volume of supporting roles makes the data impossible to analyze, even by the standards of this post. All of the predictions I'm making are wild guesses, but the guesses for these categories are especially uneducated.

When I look at the movies I think will be major contenders for Best Picture, many of them have star-studded casts and it's tough to know how big of a role each person will be playing. Still, a few names stuck out to me as ones to watch. On the men's side, I have high hopes for Richard Jenkins, who's playing Senator Richard Russell, Lyndon Johnson's mentor and then chief opposition in LBJ. He always does good work, and I feel like depending on the script he might steal the whole film. There's also Adam Driver, who has continued to grow more and more popular, and might score his first Oscar nomination for Silence. I also think that Jeremy Renner might be a contender for Story of Your Life should the movie receive sufficient Oscar buzz, as in American Hustle, he already proved a capable co-star for Amy Adams. Some people are also mentioning Kyle Chandler in Manchester by the Sea, which is definitely a possibility, but from the film's description it sounds like he might have too small of a role so I'm leaving him off of my list for now.

The supporting categories often feature a wider variety of roles, as the more quirky or unconventional performances tend to do better here than in the leading category. In particular, this category seems to be quite fond of villains, which explains the wins for Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight, Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds, and J.K. Simmons in Whiplash to name a few. This year, I think that there's potential for Jack O'Connell in Money Monster. O'Connell got lots of attention two years ago for giving two really strong performances in a really great movie called Starred Up, and a not so great movie called Unbroken. This year, he's in Money Monster where he plays a man who takes a Jim Cramer-esque TV financial guru hostage after losing everything following the man's advice. It's a role that seems destined to be both menacing and sympathetic, which the Oscars tend to reward. Another villain in contention is Patrick Stewart in Green Room, who has never been nominated for an Oscar before. Although the film won't have a public release until April, the early buzz on his performance as the leader of a gang of white supremacists has been incredibly positive, and reminds me of the kind of buzz that Simmons had for Whiplash two years ago. Considering how rarely the Academy recognizes horror films, I don't think Green Room will be talked about too much in other categories, but Stewart's performance seems like the early frontrunner.

In her first awards bait role since 12 Years a Slave, Lupita Nyong'o might rejoin the Oscars conversation for Queen of Katwe.

On the women's side, the closest thing to a frontrunner we have right now is Laura Linney in Sully, playing the wife of pilot Chesley Sullenberger. We don't know yet how big her role actually will be, but assuming her role is more than a glorified cameo, she will likely be considered. I also think that Rachel Weisz might have a shot for The Light Between Oceans, especially if the leading performances from Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander get the attention I think they will. Depending on how big of a role she has, there's also nominee potential for Michelle Williams in Manchester by the Sea. Next there's Melissa Leo and Shailene Woodley, both in Snowden. I haven't ranked Snowden too highly in any of the other categories, and I might very well be underestimating its chances, but at the moment, I think that Leo or Woodley might be the film's best shot at a nomination. Of the two, the one I'm giving the edge to is Woodley. I obviously know nothing of their roles, and Leo is always incredible, but Woodley's nomination feels like it's a long time coming as a string of solid performances has marked her as a rising Hollywood star. I think she was snubbed in this category a few years ago when she was the only good part of Best Picture nominee The Descendants. The last supporting actress who really stood out to me as a potential contender was Lupita Nyong'o in a movie called Queen of Katwe, where she'll be playing the mother of a Ugandan chess prodigy. Chess movies tend to not do very well at the Oscars (like this year's Pawn Sacrifice) because as exciting as chess can be to play, it's somewhat difficult to make dramatically interesting. But After Nyong'o's previous win in this category, this will hopefully be the role that puts her back into awards consideration.

Best Supporting Actor:
AND THE NOMINEES MIGHT BE:
Patrick Stewart: Green Room
Richard Jenkins: LBJ
Adam Driver: Silence
Jack O'Connell: Money Monster
Jeremy Renner: Story of Your Life

Best Supporting Actress:
AND THE NOMINEES MIGHT BE:
Laura Linney: Sully
Rachel Weisz: The Light Between Oceans
Michelle Williams: Manchester by the Sea
Shailene Woodley: Snowden
Lupita Nyong'o: Queen of Katwe



So, those are my thoughts. I must admit, I'm kind of curious to look back on this in a year and see which of these predictions were spot on, and which ones were just completely off base. Is there an upcoming movie that you think I should have included? And of the movies I've mentioned is there one you're particularly excited for? Let me know in the comments!

2016 Oscar Predictions: Part 2

Here's the second batch of my Oscar predictions. If you haven't yet, be sure to check out Part 1 here.

Although most people are familiar with the nominees for things like Best Picture or Best Actor or Actress, far fewer seem to care about things like sound mixing or production design. And that’s a shame, because the talents in these fields deserve just as much recognition and are critical to a film’s success. And if you’re participating in an Oscar ballot, it’s worth noting that the “big” awards make up less than half of the categories. Everyone can predict that Leonardo DiCaprio will win, but not as many are up to date on who the frontrunners are for best Documentary Short Subject. Never fear! I’m here to give a rundown of my predictions for these categories too!

I’ll start with the short films. I say this every year, but if you have an opportunity to see these, please do yourself a favor and check them out! I look forward to the short selections every year, and often they’re brilliant. And some of them are available online! You can watch World of Tomorrow, Chau Beyond the Lines, and Last Day of Freedom on Netflix, and can check out We Can’t Live Without Cosmos here.

Awww! Look at these two friends from the movie Shok! They're having so much fun and I bet nothing terrible happens to either of them at all! Wh...what do you mean this is a war movie?

Best Live Action Short:

Nominees:

Ave Maria

Day One

Everything Will Be Okay

Shok

Stutterer

This is probably the weakest of the shorts categories this year. While all ten of the nominees in the other categories are excellent, the live action shorts have two films which I think are somewhat weak. The frontrunner, according to most experts, is Ave Maria, but this is primarily because it won the top award at Cannes. However, I didn't find it nearly as funny as I think it was trying to be, and it came across as really lightweight to me. Despite what the experts say, I can't understand how this one would possibly win amongst voters who have seen all the entries. It was this same gut instinct which allowed me to correctly pick Helium to win over the heavily favored The Voorman Problem in this category two years ago. So, if you want to trust the experts, go with Ave Maria, but I simply don't see it being named the best out of this group. That being said, it's not the worst of the nominees--that would be Day One, which was downright bad. But the other three nominees are all great, and I could see any of them winning. Shok, the tragic story of two young friends during the Kosovo War, is well done and I could see generating lots of votes, and a lot of what I've read online seems to think this is the frontrunner. But for me, it's only the third best. If I were giving out this award, it would be a tough race between Everything Will Be Okay and Stutterer. Everything Will Be Okay is a German film about a divorced father who goes to extremes to spend time with his daughter. It's devastating, and one of the most powerful films of the year. By contrast, Stutterer is a charming and quirky film about a typographer who tries to overcome his profound stutter to form a connection with those around him. Both are really well done, and I could easily see Stutterer gaining a lot of votes because of how enjoyable it is. But, I have to give the edge to Everything Will Be Okay. This film is heartbreaking, and stayed with me far longer than any of the other nominees, thanks especially to the wonderful performances of Simon Schwarz and Julia Pointner as a father and daughter.

Will Win: Everything Will Be Okay
But Don't Count Out: Stutterer, Shok, Ave Maria
Should Win: Everything Will Be Okay

World of Tomorrow is not just my favorite short film of the year, I think it's one of the best works of sci-fi in film history.

Best Animated Short:

Nominees:

Bear Story

Prologue

Sanjay’s Super Team

We Can’t Live Without Cosmos

World of Tomorrow

This is an excellent lineup. In past years, I’ve always felt there were one or two weaker entries, but all five of these films have a lot of merit. Even my least favorite nominee, Bear Story—a story within a story about a bear who is taken from his family to work in the circus—is beautifully done and better than the majority of nominees in the past few years. I also like these nominees because each one is so different. Sanjay’s Super Team, Pixar’s offering this year, is an adorable story of a young boy who uses his imagination to combine his favorite TV show—Super Team—with the Hindu traditions his father attempts to teach him. This cute and appealing short couldn’t be more difficult from Prologue, which has to have a warning before it’s played due to its graphic content, depicting an incredibly violent fight between two pairs of roaming savages. It packs the same brutal devastation of, say, The Revenant, but I would argue with greater effect due to its short runtime and the beauty of its simplistic pencil animation. Then there’s We Can’t Live Without Cosmos, a Russian short about the relationship between two astronauts training for a space mission. At times funny, at times heartbreaking, it’s an incredibly poetic and touching short. Any other year, I would have named We Can’t Live Without Cosmos the clear winner…but this year had World of Tomorrow. Ever since it premiered at Sundance, there has been buzz surrounding this movie that short films don’t usually receive, and with good reason. World of Tomorrow is on another level. It’s unlike anything else, featuring a brilliant script that runs a full gamut of ideas and emotions. All the films are great, but World of Tomorrow is transcendent.

It’s hard for me to imagine World of Tomorrow not winning, and it’s widely seen as the favorite. But I suppose there is an outside chance that the somewhat more conventional and still excellent Cosmos could take the title away. And then it’s difficult to completely count out Pixar, but as good as Sanjay’s Super Team is, if it wins then it has everything to do with studio interference as opposed to artistic merit. And usually this category is able to stay out of those sorts of politics.

Will Win: World of Tomorrow

But Don’t Count Out: We Can’t Live Without Cosmos, Sanjay’s Super Team

Last Day of Freedom, an animated documentary, plays with the format to create an unforgettable short film.

Best Documentary Short:

Nominees:

Body Team 12

Chau, Beyond the Lines

Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

Last Day of Freedom

Another great lineup, just like with the animated shorts, all five of these are excellent and all five are quite different. This category is almost always incredibly depressing, and this year is no exception, although despite the difficult subject matter, all five are engaging and compelling to watch. The most upbeat is probably Chau, Beyond the Lines, about a young Vietnamese artist who is disabled due to the effects of Agent Orange, but is pursuing his dream of being a painter. It’s a great portrait of a fascinating artist, much like Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah, which profiles the later life of Lanzmann, best known for directing the 10-hour cinematic masterpiece Shoah. While those two films are about people, the other three are more about ideas, and are what I see as the three frontrunners in the category. Body Team 12 is by far the shortest of the films, and takes a look at the only woman in Body Team 12, responsible for removing the bodies of Ebola victims in Liberia. A Girl in the River is about 19-year-old Saba Qaiser, who survived an honor killing in Pakistan. The film looks at Qaiser harrowing and brave story, while also examining the terrifying practice of honor killings and the culture that surrounds them. Last Day of Freedom is, surprisingly, an animated film, utilizing an interview with Bill Babbitt, who tells the story of his brother Manny who was executed on death row. The film is deeply personal, and is in equal parts about the relationship Bill had with his brother and some of the numerous flaws with our justice system. These last three films all tell great stories, and all inspire deserved outrage about their topics of choice.

I could see any of these five winning, but I think the most likely winner is A Girl in the River. It’s the only one of these titles which has received more widespread attention thanks to its distributor (both it and Claude Lanzmann are produced by HBO) and the film’s release has already been inspiring change in the Pakistani government to end the practice of honor killings. That’s pretty powerful stuff. But, my favorite is Last Day of Freedom. At first I thought the animation might be unnecessary, but it ended up being incredibly effective and interesting. What I think sets this one apart from the others for me is just how personal it is. It doesn’t feel like a documentary, it feels like we’re taking a look at Bill’s soul. The issues that it highlights are important, and essential to discuss, but ultimately, it’s a movie about the relationship between two brothers, and due to its personal nature, it affected me in a way that the other films simply weren’t able to.

Will Win: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

But Don’t Count Out: Any of them. It’s a strong field, and any of them could win, but I guess the most likely upset might be Body Team 12.

Should Win: Last Day of Freedom

Film scholars agree that the film editing in Mad Max: Fury Road was "awesome as fuck."

Best Film Editing:

Nominees:

The Big Short

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Spotlight

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Now we're moving back to the world of feature films to focus on the technical awards, starting with Best Film Editing. More often than not, this category goes hand in hand with the winner for Best Picture. And yet, of these five films, Best Picture frontrunner Spotlight is the one where the editing is the least apparent. The other four nominees here simply have more editing going on, and therefore are more likely winners. I hate that The Big Short is nominated here, because I found the editing really distracting and sloppy. And I don’t think that Star Wars will be able to win, as in the past twenty years, there have only been four winners in this category which have not been Best Picture nominees. That leaves The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road. This final two is hardly surprising. They’re the two most nominated films this year, and it’s likely that the two of them will absolutely dominate all of the technical categories. You’re going to see these titles a lot in the rest of this blog post. Really, the biggest question mark of the night is whether these films will split the technical awards, or whether one film will sweep the awards over the other. Personally, I think that for this category, the much faster pace and more frequent use of quick cuts makes Mad Max both the likely, and the more deserving winner in this particular category.

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

But Don’t Count Out: The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki is going for his third consecutive win. And he didn't have to eat a single raw animal heart to do it.

Best Cinematography:

Nominees:

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Sicario

There could potentially be a surprising spoiler with Sicario, if only because the nominee is Roger Deakins, who has been nominated twelve times previously and never won. But, barring the Academy throwing an overdue bone to Deakins, we can again pretty much assume that this category will come down to The Revenant or Mad Max: Fury Road. While I personally thought that the camera work of Mad Max was truly spectacular, pretty much everyone agrees that this award will go to The Revenant. And that’s hard to argue with—even those like myself who didn’t love the film will agree that the cinematography was gorgeous. Also, if The Revenant wins, it will mean an unprecedented three consecutive wins for cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki, who has already taken home back-to-back trophies for his work on Gravity and Birdman the past two years.

Will Win: The Revenant

But Don’t Count Out: Mad Max: Fury Road, Sicario

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Which Production Design nominee should I post. How about Bridge of Spies? No one's talking about Bridge of Spies. Cheer up, Bridge of Spies--I haven't forgotten you! Keep your chin up, you're directed by Spielberg!

Best Production Design:

Nominees:

Bridge of Spies

The Danish Girl

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Production design basically deals with all of the elements of how a film looks. Does the film achieve a certain aesthetic? You have the production design department to thank! Personally, I thought that the two standouts out of these nominees were Mad Max: Fury Road and The Martian, but it is very rare for this category to not go to a period piece like the other three nominees, which means that my favorites are at a bit of a disadvantage. Instead, I think The Revenant and its almost ghostly, naturally-lit color palette is going to take this award home, but don’t count out The Danish Girl which has the most period-piecey feel of these five.

Will Win: The Revenant

But Don’t Count Out: The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

How far have Visual Effects come? If Maz had been in the original Star Wars films, she would have just been the actress Linda Hunt spray painted yellow.

Best Visual Effects:

Nominees:

Ex Machina

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

I’m so happy that Ex Machina managed to score a nomination! It’s the little film that could, amongst some much bigger titles, all of which operated with a far bigger budget. Unfortunately, while the visual effects are really well done in both Ex Machina and The Martian, they’re not quite as flashy as the other three nominees, and so they’re kind of out of the running. Star Wars and Mad Max are the two juggernauts, and either could easily take this, but I think that the widely known reliance on practical effects over CGI in Mad Max is going to put it over the edge. That is, unless The Revenant can ride the much talked about CGI bear scene all the way to the Oscar podium.

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

But Don’t Count Out: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

The old age makeup in The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared is really impressive and also has no chance against two movies that people have actually heard of.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Nominees:

The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

The two films competing for all of the technical awards are here once again nominated, and are somewhat amusingly joined by probably one of the least recognizable titles of the year. If you’re wondering, The 100-Year-Old-Man is a Swedish comedy, and one character spends more than half of the movie in what seems to be very convincing old age makeup. Certainly impressive, but there’s no way it or The Revenant can compete with the out of this world makeup design in Mad Max: Fury Road. I don’t even know what The Revenant is doing here, although I guess it had some fake blood and bruises and stuff?

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

But Don’t Count Out: Johnny Depp appearing on stage in his makeup from Black Mass and burgling the award from the Mad Max team.

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

One of the many incredible and intricate costumes from Crimson Peak, which was somehow not nominated even though EVERY SINGLE COSTUME IN THIS FILM WAS A WORK OF ART AND HOW THE FUCK DID IT NOT GET A NOMINATION?! I WILL NEVER UNDERSTAND THIS!

Best Costume Design:

Nominees:

Carol

Cinderella

The Danish Girl

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Rather amazingly, this is a category where Mad Max and The Revenant might NOT win, as this category tends to go for pretty rather than gritty. Although Mad Max is still a strong contender and shouldn’t be counted out, I think there’s a good chance that the Oscar will go to three-time Oscar-winner Sandy Powell, who is in contention for both Carol and Cinderella this year (she must really like Cate Blanchett). Of the two, I think that the stylish costumes in Carol might have an edge—they’re pretty, but they’re also restrained and elegant in a way that the Cinderella weren’t.

Will Win: Carol

But Don’t Count Out: Mad Max: Fury Road, Cinderella

Should Win: Carol

I couldn't find a picture of Demian Bichir playing the piano from The Hateful Eight. That would have been such a perfect picture for Best Original Score, but...oh well. Here's another still from The Hateful Eight. I know it has nothing to do with the score, though, and I'm sorry I've let all my readers down.

Best Original Score:

Nominees:

Bridge of Spies

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

This is actually a really exciting category this year. Veteran film composer Carter Burwell, who has scored countless films, has finally received his first ever nomination for Carol, which is great! But the excitement around Burwell is overshadowed by the inclusion of two genuine legends. Ennio Morricone and John Williams, both octogenarians, are two of the most iconic film composers in the business, and are proving that they’re still more than capable of producing great work with The Hateful Eight and Star Wars: The Force Awakens respectively. They’re the two frontrunners not just because of how beloved they are, but because they did genuinely create the two best scores this year. While it’s hard to bet against Williams, I think that Morricone will take home his first ever Oscar for his brilliant and mysterious score for The Hateful Eight.

Will Win: The Hateful Eight

But Don’t Count Out: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Should Win: The Hateful Eight

What's that? You don't care about sound editing? Well, without sound editing there would be no flamethrowing guitar so maybe you should care about it a little bit more! Didn't think of that, did you?

Best Sound Editing:

Nominees:

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Once again, Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant are major contenders here, although Star Wars: The Force Awakens shouldn’t be counted out. Given the film’s overwhelming success, it’s like the Academy might want to give it something, and one of these categories would be its best shot at joining the winner’s circle. So, this category is definitely up in the air, but it’s just too hard to bet against Mad Max in any of these technical categories.

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

But Don’t Count Out: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Bridge of Spies, the only sound mixing nominee not also nominated for sound editing. The sound editors for this film must really feel like they dropped the ball.

Best Sound Mixing:

Nominees:

Bridge of Spies

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

My reasoning here is the exact same as it was for Sound Editing, although with a different outcome. While I think The Revenant and Mad Max still have a chance here, I’m going to go out on a limb and say this is the category for Star Wars: Force Awakens to finally win. Its sound mixing was featured fairly prominently. You know how you could hear the dialogue over the space fights? That’s due to sound mixing, as opposed to editing!

Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

But Don’t Count Out: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant

Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

So, I'm just saying...Lady Gaga's going to be at the Oscars. And you KNOW her red carpet outfit has to top Bjork's swan dress and I'm really excited to see it. My hope is that Lady Gaga's outfit will actually just be a life-sized doll of Bjork in the swan dress which Lady Gaga drapes over her body.

Best Original Song:

Nominees:

“Earned it”—Fifty Shades of Grey

“Manta Ray”—Racing Extinction

“Simple Song #3”—Youth

“Til It Happens to You”—The Hunting Ground

“Writing’s on the Wall”—Spectre

This is a great category for predictions, because all five nominees are easily accessible! Every one of these songs is on youtube, and I encourage you to check all of them out. I must admit it’s a weird lineup, and features five films which otherwise received no nominations. There are some definite oddball choices here, including the operatic Simple Song #3, and very slow and reflective Manta Ray, but my favorite song happens to be the frontrunner to win. Til It Happens to You is an excellent song, and since it’s written and performed by Lady Gaga, it has the star power that often gets recognized by the Academy here. So, get used to saying “Oscar-winner Lady Gaga,” because she deserves the award and is likely going to win it.

Will Win: “Til It Happens to You”—The Hunting Ground

But Don’t Count Out: “Simple Song #3”—Youth, in case the old white men on the Academy decide to say fuck you to all the changes to make the voting committee younger and more diverse by voting for the most explicitly old-fashioned song in retaliation.

Should Win: “Til It Happens to You”—The Hunting Ground


And there you have it--my predictions in every category! Be sure to watch the Oscars on Sunday to see how I do, and leave your own predictions in the comments!