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The time has come! After a very long year, the
Academy Awards are nearly upon us, and Oscar nominations will be announced in
one week. It has, as always, been an interesting Oscar season, which has seen many
ups and downs in terms of which films would be in contention. Not too long ago,
Wicked was seen as a longshot, and now it’s hard to imagine it not
receiving a Best Picture nomination. A well-reviewed WWII drama directed by
Steve McQueen and starring Saoirse Ronan was once at the top of a lot of
peoples’ predictions list, and now Blitz is hinging all of its Oscars
glory hopes on Best Original Score. Below, I’ve given my thoughts and predictions
on all 23 categories. If there’s one thing I can say with confidence, it’s that
I’m going to be dead on about some things, and wrong about quite a lot, but
hopefully the analysis can carry more weight the predictions themselves. Who
will get a nomination in the very competitive Best Actress category? Who are
the frontrunners for Best Film Editing and why is it so important? Who is the creature known as Bottle George? And did Diane Warren write
another song that will be nominated at the Oscars in a bizarre ritual that
simply must have something to do with our annual harvest? Find out below!
BEST PICTURE:
My Predictions:
Anora
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
Conclave
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
A Complete Unknown
Sing Sing
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Contenders:
A Real Pain
Challengers
All We Imagine as Light
Wildcards:
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Blitz
September 5
At this point in the awards season, things have clarified quite a bit, and the genuine contenders for the Best Picture statuette have materialized. Some surprises have emerged (Wicked and The Substance were seen as major longshots not too long ago) and some early contenders have since faded from contention (remember, at one point, prognosticators were talking about the Oscars odds for Joker: Folie à Deux). And as the dust settles, a whopping 9 of the 10 Best Picture slots feel fairly set. Anora, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, Conclave, and The Brutalist have all been consistently strong enough performers that they’re all but guaranteed a nomination, and my guess is that the eventual Best Picture winner will be one of those five. I considered placing Dune: Part Two in that group, but the Academy is famously less kind to sequels so its place at the top of the leaderboard doesn’t feel 100% to me, but it’s still 95% likely to receive a nomination. A Complete Unknown has received a more mixed critical response than some of these other films, the Oscars famously love a biopic, and I personally would be surprised if it didn’t make it onto the Best Picture list, especially after a very strong showing at the SAG Awards (the guild with the biggest overlap with the Academy). Sing Sing and Nickel Boys are two of the most critically beloved films of the year, and for a long time were considered locks for a Best Picture nomination. As time has gone on, their Oscar chances have looks a bit rockier. Sing Sing has been inconsistent with different ceremonies, but still seems like a strong contender. Nickel Boys is in a bit more difficult territory, especially after being shut out of the SAG Awards entirely. I still think its critical acclaim and strong festival showing will bring it into the Best Picture race even if it is no longer in the running down the ballot (like with Women Talking a couple of years ago) but it’s more vulnerable than it once seemed like it would be. With those nine titles making my predictions list, that leaves exactly one spot left for a Best Picture nomination. There are a few titles that could take that spot and, amazingly, the strongest case can be made for The Substance. The Substance is my favorite film of the year, but I never dreamed that it would actually be in the Best Picture conversation, especially this far into the awards season. It’s brilliant, but the Academy doesn’t usually respond to horror films, and ESPECIALLY not body horror films. As it continued to pick up recognition from the Golden Globes and the Critic’s Choice Awards to the BAFTA longlists, the hype has started to get more and more real for The Substance. I still don’t know if I’m going to believe it as a Best Picture nominee until I see it, and I’m still worry I’m going to jinx something by doing this, but I finally think I need to admit that there’s concrete evidence that The Substance will do well with the Oscars, and I would love to see it make the Best Picture lineup.
But unlike, say, last year, where the ten frontrunners felt clear, there are a lot more variables this time around. Both Nickel Boys and The Substance feel vulnerable, but we could even see an upset farther up on my list, like Sing Sing or A Complete Unknown or even Dune: Part Two getting snubbed. If that happens, there are two films that arguably have the best awards season report card and are waiting in the wings: Challengers and A Real Pain. Of the two, Challengers is the buzzier option (and fans of the film Queer who know it’s not in the Best Picture conversation might want a chance to recognize Luca Guadagnino here). But I wouldn’t count out A Real Pain. Jesse Eisenberg’s film is much smaller in scale, but has been very well-received and I think is a film that a lot of voters will have a personal response to. Plus, while Challengers is in the conversation for categories like Cinematography and Original Score, A Real Pain is being discussed in far more prominent categories, like Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay. That distinction matters and, I think, gives A Real Pain an edge. Conversely, films like Blitz and September 5, which once would have been considered clear frontrunners have all but faded from the conversation. The last thing to consider is that the international voting branch of the Academy has expanded in recent years, and we’ve seen the effect it has had on the voting. Last year, for the first time ever, two films not in English made it into the Best Picture lineup. This year, Emilia Pérez has inexplicably become the awards season darling, but there are two other prominent international films that could still gain recognition. All We Imagine as Light would be a really lovely out-of-the-box pick, but its chances were definitely hurt when it controversially wasn’t even submitted for the International Film category. That didn’t stop Anatomy of a Fall from being nominated last year, so I don’t want to count out All We Imagine as Light, but it sadly is not getting as much of an awards season campaign as Anatomy of a Fall did, and is a much quieter film as a whole. The other potential contender is The Seed of the Sacred Fig, which is the only film that could potentially defeat Emilia Pérez in the International Film category. It’s a powerful film, and the story behind it is powerful as well—director Mohammad Rasoulof had to flee Iran for fear of persecution surrounding the film’s release (as he had already served prison time for crimes of propaganda against the government). My guess is this could have been a genuine contender, but the film’s distributor Neon has focused its awards season budget on Anora instead, meaning this film has failed to gain more traction in the discussion.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Sean Baker—Anora
Jacques Audiard—Emilia Pérez
Brady Corbet—The Brutalist
Edward Berger—Conclave
Coralie Fargeat—The Substance
Payal Kapadia—All We Imagine as Light
James Mangold—A Complete Unknown
Denis Villeneuve—Dune: Part Two
Jon M. Chu—Wicked
Luca Guadagnino—Challengers
It always makes sense to, first and foremost, look at the Best Picture category to figure out where Best Director will go. I mentioned there were five major contenders for the Best Picture, and it would make sense for all of them to be in contention in this category here. And I’d say 4 of the 5 directors of those films are pretty strong bets here, specifically Sean Baker, Jacques Audiard, Brady Corbet, and Edward Berger. Jon M. Chu could certainly still make the lineup for Wicked (and if he does, that will be a HUGE indication that Wicked is a genuine Best Picture contender) but it seems less likely at this point. I actually Jon M. Chu is incredibly skilled at what he does, but his directorial style tends more towards popcorn blockbusters than Oscars, and it feels like this isn’t the sort of work the directors’ branch typically responds to. Denis Villeneuve would be a good bet for Dune: Part Two, especially as this category likes to reward technical displays. But, as I said, the Academy also doesn’t love sequels. Villeneuve didn’t receive a Directing nomination for the first Dune film, which at the time was seen as a major snub. It’s unclear if this year, voters will want to correct that “mistake,” or will simply stay the course. Personally, I wouldn’t count Villeneuve out, but when he didn’t receive a nomination at the DGA Awards, it definitely hurt his chances even further. Speaking of the DGA Awards, there’s a chance that the Oscars will match their nominations exactly, meaning the 5th nominee will be James Mangold for A Complete Unknown. But I think a far more likely choice would be either Coralie Fargeat or Payal Kapadia. Both of these women already received Golden Globe nominations, and both made it to the BAFTA longlist for Best Director. Both also have the support of the aforementioned powerful international voting branch, which in recent years have brought to this category more unexpected nominations such as Pawel Pawlikowski, Thomas Vinterberg, and Justine Triet. The work of both Fargeat and Kapadia is incredibly impressive, and I’d love to see either (or even both) of them pull off an upset here. Between the two, I’m giving the edge to Fargeat simply because The Substance has a bit more momentum and recognition in the U.S. But Kapadia would be a wonderful surprise to see too. While there are a few other directors that some prognosticators are holding a torch for (Mike Leigh for Hard Truths, Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain, Pierre Almodóvar for The Room Next Door), the only other one I think has a genuine chance is Luca Guadagnino for Challengers. Especially if Challengers makes it to the Best Picture lineup, this is the best shot it has for another “major” award nomination, and there are some who would argue that Guadagnino is overdue for an Oscar nod.
BEST ACTRESS:
My Predictions:
Mikey Madison as Ani Mikheeva—Anora
Karla Sofía Gascón as Emilia Pérez—Emilia Pérez
Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba Thropp—Wicked
Demi Moore as Elisabeth Sparkle—The Substance
Nicole Kidman as Romy Mathis—Babygirl
Contenders:
Amy Adams as Mother—Nightbitch
Pamela Anderson as Shelly Gardner—The Last Showgirl
Longshots:
Marianne Jean-Baptiste—Hard Truths
Saoirse Ronan—The Outrun
Angelina Jolie as Maria Callas—Maria
Fernanda Torres—I’m Still Here
With Best Actress, we finally get to a category that feels like it has a little more variation to it. While there are a lot of strong contenders, some might argue there are too many contenders, and that means that even some of the frontrunners here are not completely set in stone. Truthfully, as I see it, only Mikey Madison and Karla Sofía Gascón are guaranteed a nomination, with Cynthia Erivo not far behind. That leaves two spots, with lots of potential contenders vying for them. The best indicator for the acting categories tends to be the SAG Awards, where the other two slots went to Demi Moore for The Substance and Pamela Anderson for The Last Showgirl. Despite it being my favorite film of the year, and Moore giving one of my favorite performances of the year, I’ve been skeptical to believe the Oscars hype for The Substance just because the film feels so un-Oscary. But consistently, The Substance has been having a surprisingly great showing all awards season, and I feel it’s finally time for me to acknowledge that it’s not just wishful thinking that Moore is likely going to receive her first nomination. Anderson also has a chance, but I worry her awards season narrative is too similar to Moore’s. Both are over 50, and both have given critically acclaimed performances that play on their previous reputation as sex symbols more than credible actors. While of course there’s no actual reason they shouldn’t both receive nominations, I do worry that the similarities of these narratives means the Academy will only gravitate towards one of them with this competitive field, and The Substance simply has more momentum and recognition than The Last Showgirl does. Anderson still has a shot, but I think there are more likely contenders. Nicole Kidman and Amy Adams have both received accolades for their work in Babygirl and Nightbitch respectively, and both are Oscars darlings who I think have a real shot at a nomination, but I’m giving the edge to Kidman based on the more positive reaction to her film as a whole.
Sadly, there are quite a few strong performances that were once seen as strong contenders which I think are becoming less and less likely. Angelina Jolie was once seen as a lock for her strong performance as Maria Callas in Maria, but her absence from both the SAG Awards and the BAFTAs has made her Oscars chances plummet. There’s support for both Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Hard Truths and Saoirse Ronan for The Outrun, but again, both of them had speculative buzz that has failed to materialize in such a crowded field. Lastly, after Fernanda Torres won a Golden Globe for Brazilian film I’m Still Here, many prognosticators were excited to consider her as a strong possibility, but I’m not sold. Sure, the win at the Globes provided some momentum, but plenty of Golden Globe winners have gone on to not receive Oscar nominations, and in such a crowded field Torres needs a much lengthier report card for me to consider her a strong possibility. Her chances are now better than if she had NOT won the Golden Globe, but I do think other contenders are far more likely.
BEST ACTOR:
My Predictions:
Ralph Fiennes as Thomas Cardinal Lawrence—Conclave
Adrien Brody as László Tóth—The Brutalist
Colman Domingo as John “Divie G” Whitfield—Sing Sing
Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan—A Complete Unknown
Daniel Craig as William Lee—Queer
Wildcards:
Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump—The Apprentice
Jesse Eisenberg as David Kaplan—A Real Pain
Jesse Plemons as Robert/Daniel/Andrew—Kinds of Kindness
The Best Actor category feels far more set in stone than Best Actress. The SAG Awards lineup was the only one of the acting categories with no major surprises, cementing the five nominees as the five vying for the Oscars. Should any of the five not receive a nomination, it would be seen as a major snub.
But the Oscars sometimes has a little surprise up its sleeve. So, while it’s unlikely, is there anyone who could sneak in as an unexpected nominee? I have three wildcards. Sebastian Stan had quite a big year, with two acclaimed performances in A Different Man and The Apprentice. While he has picked up a few awards for A Different Man (including the Golden Globe), the Oscars loves a biopic (looking at you, Timothée) so I think it’s more likely he gets recognition for The Apprentice. Hollywood would love an opportunity to dunk on Donald Trump, and the fact that this is who he portrays (negatively, of course) makes this is a performance I’ve never been willing to fully discount. Jesse Eisenberg will likely receive an Oscar nomination for his screenplay for A Real Pain, but if the film has more support than expected amongst the voters, he might also receive an acting nomination. Lastly, and perhaps most strangely, I’m not willing to completely rule out Jesse Plemons. Kinds of Kindness didn’t make as much of a splash as Yorgos Lanthimos’ most recent films, but considering how well both The Favourite and Poor Things have done with the Academy recently, it’s clear that they love Yorgos. And as Cannes has had more of an influence over the Oscars in recent years, Plemons’ Best Actor win at that ceremony gives him a non-zero chance of receiving an unexpected nomination.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
My Predictions:
Ariana Grande as Galinda Upland—Wicked
Felicity Jones as Erzsébet Tóth—The Brutalist
Zoe Saldaña as Rita Mora Castro—Emilia Pérez
Danielle Deadwyler as Berniece Charles—The Piano Lesson
Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez—A Complete Unknown
Contenders:
Selena Gomez as Jessi Del Monte—Emilia Pérez
Jamie Lee Curtis as Annette—The Last Showgirl
Isabella Rossellini as Sister Agnes—Conclave
Margaret Qualley as Sue—The Substance
Longshots:
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor as Hattie—Nickel Boys
Natasha Lyonne as Rachel—His Three Daughters
Saoirse Ronan as Rita Hanway—Blitz
Once again, it makes sense to look at the SAG Awards, and once again they help put the race into a bit of focus. All awards season long, there have been three names that keep popping up here: Ariana Grande, Felicity Jones, and presumed frontrunner Zoe Saldaña. Jones actually missed out on a SAG nomination, but the rest of her report card is strong enough that I think it’s worth keeping her in the running. The Brutalist clearly just didn’t do well with SAG, which also failed to reward Jones’ co-star Guy Pearce, and didn’t recognize the ensemble for Best Cast. And while that does hurt The Brutalist’s Oscar chances overall, it makes Jones’ exclusion here simply feel like a fluke. That leaves two spots, and a few options to fill them. Danielle Deadwyler seems like a good bet for The Piano Lesson, and I’m giving the final spot to fellow SAG nominee Monica Barbaro, who has been singled out as a standout performance in A Complete Unknown.
But Deadwyler and Barbaro definitely face some competition. Jamie Lee Curtis came out of nowhere to earn a SAG nomination for The Last Showgirl (taking the spot most assumed belonged to Jones) but the last time she specifically received a surprise SAG nomination a few years ago, that ended up with her actually winning the Oscar for Everything Everywhere All at Once. There’s also Selena Gomez, Isabelle Rossellini, and Margaret Qualley, all of whom have received some attention for films with feature other buzzier performances. Their respective films are clearly on the Academy’s radar, and if any get a nomination, it’ll be a sign that the Academy likes these films even more than expected.
Unfortunately, as in other acting categories, several performances that once had a considerable amount of clout have lost a lot of momentum. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor was seen as a frontrunner for Nickel Boys for a very long time, but she has failed to receive some crucial nominations, which has hurt her chances quite a bit. Meanwhile, Natasha Lyonne and Saoirse Ronan have all but completely vanished from the conversation after earlier critical accolades (the disappearance of the performances in His Three Daughters from this awards season will never cease to baffle me).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
My Predictions:
Kieran Culkin as Benjy Kaplan—A Real Pain
Yura Borisov as Igor—Anora
Guy Pearce as Harrison Lee Van Buren—The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong as Roy Cohn—The Apprentice
Clarence Maclin as Clarence “Divine Eye” Maclin—Sing Sing
Contender:
Edward Norton as Pete Seeger—A Complete Unknown
Wildcards:
Mark Eydelshteyn as Vanya Zakharov—Anora
Karren Karagulian as Toros—Anora
Stanley Tucci as Aldo Cardinal Bellini—Conclave
Denzel Washington as Macrinus—Gladiator II
Easily the biggest surprise of this year’s SAG Awards was when Jonathan Bailey received a nomination for Wicked. His nomination came out of nowhere, and it serves as an indication of how much the acting branch responded to Wicked, but isn’t enough to indicate that he’ll actually receive an Oscar nomination when he’s not been recognized anywhere else. His nomination does, however, complicate this category. At the moment, the only guaranteed nominees are Kieran Culkin and Yura Borisov. That leaves four potential contenders fighting for three spots. Much like his co-star Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce has done very well this awards season for The Brutalist, and I’m willing to overlook his lack of a SAG nomination considering how well he’s done everywhere else. This leaves Jeremy Strong and Edward Norton (who both received SAG nominations) and Clarence Maclin (who did not receive a SAG nomination). In general, Sing Sing has had a bit of a rocky road awards season. It has always been in contention, but it’s definitely clear that some awards ceremonies respond to the film more than others, and this has caused the film to lose a bit of momentum leading up to the Oscars. I’m still willing to bet on Maclin, as I think Sing Sing is right up the Academy’s alley. That being said, I can see the case for both Strong and Norton as well, especially since the Academy tends to respond to real-life portrayals, which both of their performances are. It’s a toss-up, and perhaps my heart is overruling my brain on this one in regards to Maclin, but I’m ultimately leaving Norton as the odd one out. But any arrangement of these top six contenders is plausible.
Even with how competitive the category is, there are still a few more plausible options. Both Denzel Washington and Stanley Tucci were seen as early favorites for the category, but both have had significant gaps in their awards season report cards (particularly Tucci). And then there’s Mark Eydelshteyn and Karren Karagulian in Anora. Yura Borisov has clearly given the standout supporting performance based on critical reactions, but it’s a film with a large cast of characters, and if the Academy responds to the film, I could see both Eydelshteyn and Karagulian having a chance at a surprise nomination. Since leaving the Golden Globes empty-handed, some have wondered if Anora has lost some momentum, and an out-of-the-blue nomination for either of these actors would be a great boost for the film’s chances as a whole.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
My Predictions:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
The Substance
All We Imagine as Light
Contenders:
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Challengers
September 5
Babygirl
Wild Cards:
Hard Truths
Saturday Night
Kinds of Kindness
Anora and The Brutalist are two of the biggest Best Picture contenders of the night, and both will probably be the main contenders in this category. But the other main Best Picture contenders are all Adapted Screenplays, meaning that Original Screenplay has room for some more…shall we say…interesting options. I feel good about the chances for both A Real Pain and The Substance. Both films are clearly on the Academy’s radar, and both have received specific attention for their writing (which is funny because these screenplays could not be more different) and I am glad to see both have a really strong chance at a nomination here. That leaves one last spot, and a few films that could make it in.
There has been some buzz for the film September 5, but I don’t think there’s been nearly enough. People simply aren’t talking about this film, but if it’s going to pick up a nomination, this is the category for it. Challengers and Babygirl have been sitting on the outskirts of the Oscars conversation all season, kind of on the bubble of what could be considered. A screenplay nomination for either film feels plausible, but still slightly out of reach. And then there’s some niche films, Hard Truths, Saturday Night, and Kinds of Kindness, all of which come from beloved filmmakers who have had their screenplays nominated in the past, but none of these movies have much buzz surrounding them, so they don’t feel like they have a strong enough case for them to be seriously considered here. Personally, I’m betting on the ever-growing international branch of the Academy to end up picking the fifth slot. And if that happens, it’s between All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig. I’m going with All We Imagine as Light, as this is a film with a lot of critical acclaim, and fans of it will probably push their support behind the film here, as it’s likely the only nomination the film is going to receive.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
My Predictions:
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Conclave
Sing Sing
Wicked
Contenders:
Dune: Part Two
A Complete Unknown
Longshots:
Nightbitch
Queer
The Piano Lesson
The Room Next Door
As I already mentioned, the biggest contenders for Best Picture lean heavily on Adapted Screenplays, meaning films like Emilia Pérez, Conclave, Sing Sing, and Wicked have a great shot here. And while Dune: Part Two and A Complete Unknown also have Best Picture clout and could sneak in here, I feel strongly about Nickel Boys’ chances. With Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor seemingly out of the Best Supporting Actress conversation, Nickel Boys doesn’t have any other “major” categories that it’s contending in, so this is where that films’ fans are going to be throwing their support. It could honestly be a Women Talking situation, where the film only receives nominations for Best Picture and Best Screenplay.
With so many Best Picture contenders in the running, that does leave several other potential screenplays a bit out of luck, with Nightbitch, Queer, The Piano Lesson, and The Room Next Door simply not gathering enough momentum to be seen as likely nominees.
INTERNATIONAL FILM:
My Predictions:
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Kneecap (Ireland)
Flow (Latvia)
Contenders:
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
Vermiglio (Italy)
How to Make Millions before Grandma Dies (Thailand)
Dahomey (Senegal)
Touch (Iceland)
Santosh (UK)
Longshots:
Waves (Czech Republic)
Armand (Norway)
Universal Language (Canada)
From Ground Zero (Palestine)
There are really two top dogs here: Emilia Pérez (of course) and The Seed of the Sacred Fig, and both are all but guaranteed a nomination. I’m Still Here has certainly seen its stock rise after some buzz has arisen surrounding actress Fernanda Torres, and I think it’s a good bet for a nomination as well. A lot of prognosticators are highlighting The Girl with the Needle and Vermiglio as contenders, but having seen both films, I’m a bit skeptical. Vermiglio is beautiful to look at, but is also very slow and very artsy, and I feel might have appealed to critics more than the Academy at large. The Girl with the Needle is a very good film, but it is also incredibly hard to watch, and is a hard film to “like” even if it’s an easy one to appreciate. I’m thinking a little bit outside the box with my pick. One of my boldest predictions is Kneecap, a musical biopic about a Northern Irish hip-hop trio. Ireland earned it’s first nomination in the category recently for The Quiet Girl, and I genuinely feel like the novelty of a film being in Gaelic was appealing to a lot of voters. Kneecap is a very cool film, and features some dialogue in English as well, which might make it an easier watch for some Oscar voters, who might give this film more support than a lot are expecting. Lastly, I’ve picked Flow, a Latvian film with no dialogue which is also a contender for Best Animated Film. It’s a charming movie, and I think as Oscars voters consider it for two categories, its fans will want to vote for it twice. Other contenders include the Senegalese documentary Dahomey, which might get the same cross-category boost as Flow, as it’s on the shortlist for Best Documentary. I’ve seen a lot of support for How to Make Millions before Grandma Dies, a heartfelt Thai film, but one whose oddly comedic tone doesn’t exactly scream Oscars to me. Lastly, I’m not ready to cut out Touch or Santosh, based purely on vibes for what the Oscars tends to respond to.
DOCUMENTARY:
My Predictions:
Dahomey
Daughters
Sugarcane
Will & Harper
No Other Land
Contenders:
Frida
Porcelain War
The Bibi Files
Queendom
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Black Box Diaries
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Union
Eno
Hollywoodgate
While I’m not sure Dahomey will be getting a nomination for Best International Film, I do think it has a good shot to be nominated here, along with emotional tearjerker Daughters and brilliant exposé Sugarcane. Celebrity-centric documentaries don’t have a very good track record with the Oscars, but road-trip movie Will & Harper feels like it might have what it takes to overcome that trend, given the timely message at the film’s center. That leaves one spot, and with a category like this, there are SO many chances for an upset. With not too much confidence, I’ve ended up going for No Other Land. This film has not gotten an official release in the U.S. yet, which makes it harder to receive a nomination, but I think the story behind the film will help it earn a nomination. A depiction of the friendship between a Palestinian activist and an Israeli journalist, filmed between 2019 and 2023, it’s clear that this film is frighteningly relevant. And, while I haven’t seen it, it sounds like the film manages to avoid the sort of “both sides have a point” perspective that would render a film like this useless. I hope it gets a nomination. And I hope it finally gets a U.S. release so people can see what sounds like an incredibly important and timely film.
ANIMATED FILM:
My Predictions:
The Wild Robot
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Flow
Contender:
Moana 2
The Animated Feature Film category is a bit unusual this year. There are only five nominations available, but there are six films which feel like they would be guaranteed a spot in any other year. So it’s a bit of a game of musical chairs to see which of these films will end up left out on nomination day. The two most secure nominees are The Wild Robot, which feels like the frontrunner in the category, and Inside Out 2, which was well-received and will get a nomination simply because…well…it’s Pixar. I also feel pretty great about Memoir of a Snail receiving a nomination—it’s a wonderfully crafted film which has been picking up nominations at pretty much every precursor award. The first Wallace & Gromit feature film actually won this award, and I feel like these icons of the animation world are going to have a lot of support from the Academy’s nominating branch (but also, I said the same thing about Aardman’s Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget last year, so I could be wrong). That leaves Moana 2, a blockbuster film with all of Disney’s money and name recognition behind it, and Flow, a Latvian film with no dialogue about a cat in a forest. When I put it that way, it may seem silly to bet against Moana 2, and I probably would not have done so if this was last year. But at the last Oscars we saw the first actually good lineup of Animated Feature nominees that we’ve seen in years, and it gave me hope to maybe not be so cynical. Moana 2 is perfectly fine, and I would not be surprised at all if it displaces any of my predicted nominees. But I’m ready to put my money on Flow, especially since it will already be on voters’ radar because of its inclusion in the International Feature shortlist.
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
My Predictions:
Dune: Part Two
The Brutalist
Emilia Pérez
Conclave
Nosferatu
Contenders:
The Girl with the Needle
Challengers
Gladiator II
Maria
Wicked
The Substance
Greig Fraser won an Oscar for the first Dune, and I would argue that Dune: Part Two is even more visually impressive. He’s bound for a nomination here. While a Best Picture nominee is not a prerequisite for a nomination here, it certainly helps, which is why I feel like both The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez have a good shot (Emilia Pérez really does seem bound to be the technical awards darling of the night). Of the expected Best Picture nominees, Conclave and Wicked are also very much in the running (I haven’t seen a lot of speculation for The Substance, which surprises me). Between the two, I feel like the Academy is going to opt for Wicked elsewhere, so am giving the edge to Conclave here. There’s then usually one more “out there” pick, and I’m going for Nosferatu, Robert Eggers’ remake of the classic vampire tale which has received rave reviews particularly for its aesthetic.
But I will admit that I’m not confident about these predictions at all. Gladiator II and Challengers are two big films from this year that feature the type of cinematography the Academy often likes to reward. Maria, with multi-nominated cinematographer Ed Lachman, has often been cited as a likely nominee in this category, but with Angelina Jolie beginning to fade from the Oscars conversation, it’s WILD to me to imagine this movie getting any nominations if she doesn’t receive one. Lastly, there’s the Danish Oscars submission The Girl with the Needle, which it’s PAINING me to not include on the list. It won Camerimage’s Golden Frog—often an Oscar bellwether—and it’s in black and white, which is frequently Oscar bait in this category. I feel like the category might just be too stacked for a much smaller film like The Girl with the Needle to make the lineup, but it’s the movie I’m most reluctant to leave off of my predictions.
PRODUCTION DESIGN:
My Predictions
Dune: Part Two
Wicked
The Brutalist
Emilia Pérez
Conclave
Contenders:
A Complete Unknown
Gladiator II
The Substance
Nosferatu
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Saturday Night
Best Production Design obviously rewards films that are visually striking, but it also is a category that tends to look at Best Picture nominees. For the last three years, 4 of the 5 nominees have also been nominated for Best Picture, so it’s important to look at that lineup for who might be nominated here. Dune: Part Two, Wicked, The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, Conclave, A Complete Unknown, and The Substance all have a chance here, especially after all received nominations for the ADG Awards. Of these, I feel like Dune: Part Two, Wicked, and The Brutalist have to be the biggest contenders, with Emilia Pérez not far behind simply due to its musical numbers. The Academy tends to not recognize contemporary films in this category, but Conclave is not your average contemporary film, and the look of the film is striking enough that I think it has a good shot here. I’ve included it in my predictions even though I think that ONE of my predictions is going to end up being wrong. I’m just not sure which one. This crowded field might not leave any room for A Complete Unknown, even though the Academy loves to recognize a period film here. Bafflingly, I’ve weirdly not seen many people giving any chances for The Substance, which absolutely deserves recognition as one of the most visually interesting films of the year, but it might just have to settle for a nod in Makeup & Hairstyling.
As for films that are not as much in the Best Picture conversation, I feel like Gladiator II and Nosferatu are the most likely to crack the list, although Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Saturday Night have the potential to be dark horses in this category as well.
FILM EDITING:
My Predictions:
Emilia Pérez
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Wicked
Contenders:
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
Challengers
Sing Sing
The Substance
The Film Editing category is always an exciting one for Oscars prognosticators, as eventual Best Picture winners are nominated here more frequently than in any other category (including Best Director). In an awards season where Best Picture still very much feels up in the air, that makes this a particularly important category. If any of Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, or Wicked don’t get a nomination here, that’s going to hurt their Best Picture odds by quite a bit. On the other hand, if films like A Complete Unknown, Sing Sing, Dune: Part Two, or The Substance can earn a nomination here, that puts them potentially back into the conversation. Challengers remains one of the biggest question marks of the Oscars season, and once again it’s unclear to me whether it will do quite well with the technical categories, or leave completely empty-handed. And then there are action films like Gladiator II and ACE Eddie nominee Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, which feature the type of fast-paced editing that the Academy often awards here even outside of the Best Picture conversation.
COSTUME DESIGN:
My Predictions:
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Contenders:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Saturday Night
The Substance
For this category, I’m looking to the CDGA Awards, which splits its costume awards into three categories: Contemporary Film, Period Film, and Sci-Fi/Fantasy Film. Of these three categories, Period Film tends to have the most overlap with the Oscars, followed by Sci-Fi/Fantasy, and then Contemporary last of all. This time around, the nominees for Period Film were The Book of Clarence, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, and Saturday Night. I actually thought The Book of Clarence was a vastly underrated film from this year, but it’s sadly not on anybody’s radar and is unlikely to repeat this success at the Oscars. While both Maria and Saturday Night do have a shot, I think the far more likely nominees are Gladiator II and Nosferatu, which feature much flashier costumes which regular voters will take note of. In the Sci-Fi/Fantasy category, the nominees were Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Borderlands, Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, and Wicked. The idea of Borderlands being an Oscar nominee is absolutely heinous, so we’re not going to even consider it. But the other four nominees definitely have a shot! Wicked and Dune: Part Two definitely feel like strong bets considering the strong support for the films as a whole. As for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Furiosa, both are films with great costumes and in another year I’d feel better about their chances. While Jenny Beavan won this Award for his work on Mad Max: Fury Road, I feel she might get just edged out here, because it’s never wise to bet against Colleen Atwood at the Oscars. Even if Beetlejuice Beetlejuice as a whole didn’t receive the most overwhelming reception, it’s got a great shot at a nomination here.
Lastly, there’s the Contemporary category, where the nominees at the CDGA Awards were Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Fall Guy, and The Substance. [By the way, it’s absolutely WILD to me that neither The Substance nor Nosferatu apparently qualified as Sci-Fi/Fantasy! What, CDGAs, you simply HAD to recognize Borderlands there instead?] Challengers and The Fall Guy have an almost impossible road to getting an Oscars nomination. The Substance has a non-zero chance, but if any films are going to break into the Oscars from this lineup, it will be Conclave or Emilia Pérez. The papal costumes of Conclave are lush and FEEL like period costumes even though the film is set at a contemporary time. Emilia Pérez shouldn’t be counted out simply because it’s the unlikely nominations juggernaut of the year, and might ride a wave of support to nominations up and down the line. But I’ve left if off my predictions this time just because it feels like there’s too much competition from genres that the Oscars are more likely to reward.
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:
My Predictions:
Dune: Part Two
The Substance
The Apprentice
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Wicked
Contenders:
A Different Man
Nosferatu
Emilia Pérez
Waltzing with Brando
Maria
For several years, I was on record as saying this was my least favorite category of the Oscars, as for a string of ceremonies recently, this category basically could have just been called “Best Fat Suit.” I’m thrilled that for the second year in a row, none of the nominees for this category are going to be fat-suit focused (while there is a fat suit in Dune: Part Two the campaign is more heavily focused around the many other creative makeups in that film). Not really useful information in terms of prediction the nominees, but still a fact that makes me happy and one that I want to bring up whenever I can!
This is a category that tends to reward both drastic physical transformations from an actor into a recognizable person, or creative sci-fi/fantasy work. As indicated by the loathsome (and hopefully bygone?) Fat Suit trend, the Oscars usually trend more towards the physical transformations, which would include shortlisted films like The Apprentice, Maria, and Waltzing with Brando. But I’m actually going to go out on a limb and say that this is the year of the sci-fi/fantasy makeups to dominate. The makeup and hairstyling to turn Angelina Jolie into Maria Callas in Maria was subtle and didn’t feature heavy prosthetics, so might not be flashy enough to get the Oscars’ attention. The transformation of Billy Zane into Marlon Brando in Waltzing with Brando is far more drastic, and the exact kind of work this category loves, but unfortunately nobody has gotten to see Waltzing with Brando! It has yet to hit theaters and doesn’t have a release date in sight! That makes it not only a strange choice for the Oscars supposedly recognizing work in 2024, but it means that the film won’t have the support of the much more talked about shortlisted films. The only one of the real-person transformations I can see making it onto the list is The Apprentice, and I do think it has a very good shot here. On the more fantastical front, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, and Wicked are all films with a lot of buzz that feature some bold makeup work front and center, and therefore feel like sure bets in this category.
That leaves just one spot left. Emilia Pérez, again, feels like it worryingly might get nominated for EVERYTHING, but feels like more of a longshot here. That leaves A Different Man, Nosferatu, and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice. I’ve seen a lot of prognosticators leaning towards A Different Man, possibly because the central makeup of Sebastian Stan in the first part of the film is so crucial to the movie’s plot. It’s certainly a possibility, but the film as a whole feels a bit too niche to break into the Academy Awards for me. And while Nosferatu definitely has a shot, I’m putting my money on Beetlejuice Beetlejuice. Despite the mixed reaction to the film as a whole, you’ve got to admit the makeup and hairstyling was as creative and wonderful as in the first film, and my guess is this work will get a bit of a nostalgia bump from the nominating committee.
VISUAL EFFECTS:
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Better Man
Gladiator II
Alien: Romulus
Civil War
Deadpool & Wolverine
Mufasa: The Lion King
Twisters
It looks like it’ll be the battle of the monkeys at the Oscars this year. Wicked, Kingdom of the Planets of the Apes, Better Man, and Gladiator II, all feature monkeys and apes in their visual effects package, and coincidentally, all are seen as frontrunners here. And while it would be a lot of fun to put Mufasa: The Lion King in here to round out the animal theme, it’s hard to imagine Dune: Part Two not making the list, considering the first Dune won this award, and I’d like Mufasa’s chances more if the first “live-action” The Lion King had been recognized in this category a few years ago. The other monkey-less nominees feel a bit like longshots. While Marvel’s track record in this category has improved over the years, Deadpool & Wolverine was popular more for its script and performances than for the effects themselves. Alien: Romulus and Twisters were well-received follow-ups to popular franchises, but neither have the amount of buzz they might need to make it into the running. Lastly, Civil War’s inclusion on the shortlist was a nice surprise, but the immersive war sequences are not particularly flashy and might fail to catch the committee’s attention in such a crowded field.
SOUND:
My Predictions:
Wicked
Emilia Pérez
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
A Complete Unknown
Contenders:
Blitz
Alien: Romulus
Deadpool & Wolverine
The Wild Robot
Joker: Folie à Deux
The Best Sound Category has two things it likes to recognize: movies with big action sequences, and movies with musical numbers. Sure, every so often, it will take notice of a movie with truly innovative sound (like last year’s incredibly worthy winner The Zone of Interest) but since none of the films this year meet that qualification, we’re looking at big action sequences and musical numbers, baby! In terms of musical numbers, that would include shortlisted films A Complete Unknown, Emilia Pérez, Joker: Folie à Deux, and Wicked. Of these four films, Joker: Folie à Deux was…well…you know…really bad…so Emilia Pérez and Wicked feel like the best bets. For the remaining six films on the shortlist, it becomes a case of whose action sequences are the most action-y. Dune: Part Two and Gladiator II definitely feel like the standouts.
ORIGINAL SCORE:
My Predictions:
Conclave
Challengers
Blitz
The Wild Robot
The Brutalist
Contenders:
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Room Next Door
Nosferatu
Gladiator II
Sing Sing
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Longshots, but Technically on the Shortlist:
The Fire Inside
Inside Out 2
Babygirl
Alien: Romulus
The Six Triple Eight
The Young Woman and the Sea
Blink Twice
Horizon: An American Saga—Chapter 1
Unlike the typical shortlists of 10 or 15, the Best Original Score shortlist featured a whopping 20 films on it! Luckily for prognosticators, most of these films are not going to play much of a factor in the discussion. There’s a long way to go before we see whatever the hell Horizon: An American Saga—Chapter 1 become an Oscar nominated movie. While having the best Original Score SHOULD really be separate from a film’s overall quality, this is a category with a surprising amount of overlap with Best Picture, traditionally, which I think will give a boost to movies like Conclave and The Brutalist. Challengers has one of the most talked-about scores of the year, from Oscar darlings Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, and there’s been a lot of buzz around the score for The Wild Robot as well. For my last pick, I’ve gone with Blitz, solely because it comes from Hans Zimmer. Zimmer is beloved in the industry, and his score for Dune: Part Two was rather controversially disqualified from contention this year. That means he has the voting support of those who like his work on Blitz, and those who want to see him recognized for his work as a whole. Otherwise, things are a little up in the air, and perhaps I’m particularly foolish to not give recognition to Emilia Pérez. But the Academy isn’t going to be so foolish as to just go, “Oh, it was a movie with music, let’s nominate it for Original Score!!!” right? RIGHT?!?!
ORIGINAL SONG:
My Predictions:
“The Journey”—The Six Triple Eight
“El Mal”—Emilia Pérez
“Kiss the Sky”—The Wild Robot
“Never Too Late”—Elton John: Never Too Late
“Harper and Will Go West”—Will & Harper
Contenders:
“Mi Camino”—Emilia Pérez
“Compress/Repress”—Challengers
“Beyond”—Moana 2
“Tell Me It’s You”—Mufasa: The Lion King
“Sick in the Head”—Kneecap
“Winter Coat”—Blitz
“Piece by Piece”—Piece by Piece
“Like a Bird”—Sing Sing
“Out of Oklahoma”—Twisters
If you follow any sort of Oscars discussion (such as this blog) then you know that every year Diane Warren writes a song for a movie and every year she gets nominated for it. She started out writing good, iconic songs for some very good movies. Not anymore. Now, she could just write literally any song for literally any movie and she will receive an Oscar nomination for it (and not win). This is a long preamble to say, expect a nomination for “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight.
We know at least one of the songs from Emilia Pérez will receive a nomination. It’s very possible that both will (like with Barbie last year) but if it’s just going to be one, I think “El Mal” is more likely than “Mi Camino.” Animated films tend to do well here, and while I’m tempted to predict the offerings from Moana 2 and Mufasa: The Lion King just based on that Disney clout, the Wild Robot’s swell of support in the shortlists might serve it well here. The Academy likes to give nominees in this category to beloved musicians, which is a good sign for “Never Too Late” from an Elton John documentary that apparently exists. But, also, the Oscars very recently nominated John for a song he wrote for Rocketman, so “Never Too Late” might feel a bit redundant to the nominating committee. Lastly, I’m going out on a limb to predict a nomination for “Harper and Will Go West,” a very sweet song sung by Kristen Wiig at the end of the documentary Harper & Will. It’s a simple song, one written as the conclusion of a movie-long bit about Wiig writing a jingle for the titular pair, but it's a song that feels perfect in the context of the movie (which is among the criteria for how this award is supposed to be judged). Of all of the songs on this list, it’s the only one that I actually remember from when I watched the movie, and fans of the rather popular movie might be able to throw their support behind this one.
But overall, this is a tough category to judge. Unlike in recent years, there aren’t any songs from 2024 movies that have really seeped into the public consciousness, the way the songs from Barbie did. So it’s a bit more open to surprises. And, personally, I’m heavily rooting for “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap to make it. Kneecap is great.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
My Predictions:
McKayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World
Instruments of a Beating Heart
Once Upon a Time in Ukraine
Incident
Keeper
Contenders:
A Swim Lesson
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
I Am Ready, Warden
Death by Numbers
The Quilters
Chasing Roo
Planetwalker
Seat 31: Zooey Zephyr
Eternal Father
Until He’s Back
And so, here we are. The categories you’ve all been waiting for, the short films!!! I always love these categories, and am genuinely so glad they’re included every year despite not being the most popular. They’re really important to the industry, and I will continue my call each year to tell people to WATCH MORE SHORT FILMS! These categories are also, of course, rather tough to predict, as there is less to go by, but I will do my best based on a few indicators we have available to us, and based on what subject matter tends to be rewarded.
Of the films available to watch already, two of my favorites were Planetwalker and Seat 31: Zooey Zephyr. I’d love to see both nominated, but I worry neither are going to capture the Academy’s attention. Instead, films like Instruments of a Beating Heart (about a group of schoolchildren in Japan) and Incident (a harrowing look at the murder of Harith Augustus by the hands of police, shown exclusively through security and body camera footage) pack a bit more of a punch that tends to be more of the Oscars’ speed. Netflix has always done well in this category, and this year has two offerings on the shortlist: McKayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World and The Only Girl in the Orchestra. Both are good, and both could get nominated, but in a crowded field, I’m selecting just one. Keeper won the Student Academy Award for Documentary Short this year, which is very prestigious, and gives that film an edge. And for my list pick, I went with Once upon a Time in Ukraine, a movie I have not seen and which I’m picking based solely on title and subject matter. And while that may seem arbitrary considering the level of detail and research I usually employ, I’ve found that this is actually the MOST reliable way to guess the short films.
Truly, any of the shortlisted films could make it—that’s the nature of the short film categories—but the last film I feel like I should highlight is A Swim Lesson. I ultimately left it off of my predictions because it’s a much calmer and lighter film than what usually gets nominated, but it’s worth noting that it is produced by Rashida Jones, who is the only celebrity name involved in any of these films, which definitely does increase its odds.
ANIMATED SHORT:
My Predictions:
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Wander to Wonder
Beautiful Men
Bottle George
ME
Contenders:
A Bear Named Wojtek
The Wild-Tempered Clavier
Percebes
Magic Candies
Au Revoir Mon Monde
Origami
A Crab in the Pool
The 21
Maybe Elephants
Yuck!
Fewer
of the Animated Short Films are currently available to watch than the
Documentary Shorts, so there’s even less to go on here! But there is still some
stuff we can work with to find a frontrunner. The Student Academy Award gold
and silver medalists were, respectively, Au Revoir Mon Monde and Origami,
and that does give a point in both of those film’s favors. But I’ve been able
to watch both of these films, and personally wasn’t blown away by either of
them, so I’m keeping them off of my personal predictions. Three of the
shortlisted films are also nominated for Best Short Film at the Annie Awards,
which I think gives those films an edge. I haven’t been able to see Beautiful
Men or Wander to Wonder, but In the Shadow of the Cypress is
available to watch and absolutely blew me away! The biggest name in this
category, and arguable in ALL of the short film categories, is two-time nominee
in this category Don Hertzfeldt. The darling of indie animation is back in the
running again with his latest short ME, which many see as his chance to
FINALLY get Oscars recognition. Now, Don Hertzfeldt is one of my favorite
filmmakers of all time (I got a World of Tomorrow tattoo just a few
months ago) and ME is as incredible as his work always is, but it’s also
not the most accessible work he’s created. So I’m less positive about his
ability to get a nomination for this one than I wish I was. Simply looking at
trailers, there are a few movies that seem like they might be standouts based
on their animation style. A Bear Named Wojtek, for example, looks
beautiful, The Wild-Tempered Clavier looks really innovative. Percebes looks very interesting, and Magic Candies looks like it could be really fun. But for my fifth prediction, I simply have to go with Bottle
George. I’ve only seen the trailer, but based on that trailer alone, I
would happily take a bullet for the creature who I can only assume is Bottle
George, pictured below.
Just look at this guy! I want to see this movie. I hope he wins. Bottle George deserves everything.
LIVE ACTION SHORT:
My Predictions:
A Lien
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
The Compatriot
An Orange from Jaffa
Dovecote
Contenders:
Anuja
Clodagh
Edge of Space
The Ice Cream Man
The Last Ranger
The Masterpiece
Paris 70
Crust
I’m Not a Robot
Room Taken
And so we reach the final short film category, and the one with the absolute least to go off of! Of the films available to watch online, I wasn’t particularly impressed by Room Taken, and the comedic sensibilities of Crust and I’m Not a Robot might be at odds with what the Oscars typically responds to (although I recommend both films!) The only one of the Live Action shorts I was able to watch that really felt like it had a good shot at a nomination was A Lien, which highlights the cruelty and surrealistic horrors of American deportation practices. Other frontrunners have to be The Compatriot, which won the Student Academy Award, and The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent, which won Best Short Film at Cannes.
And…that’s all I have to go on, really. I’m picking An Orange from Jaffa and Dovecote based solely on gut instinct and nothing more. Which probably means they’re the only two nominees I’ll actually get right. But, I must say, I’m glad in many ways to have so little to go on. In the past few years, this category has gotten a bit taken over by some bigger names, either in front of or behind the screen. And so getting back to the roots of this category about highlighting undiscovered talent is a welcome thing to see.
