Okay, here we go. Oscar nominations are announced
on Tuesday, and I just got these in under the wire. Here are my predictions for
the nominations in all categories for the 95th Academy Awards! It
should be an exciting lineup—the way the nominations fall is going to tell us a
lot about the state of this race.
Two
notes. Equally important. 1) These are simply my thoughts on who WILL be
nominated, not who I think should be nominated. Don’t worry, there will be
plenty of upcoming content on this blog where I share my opinions (and you can
get a headstart by reading about my favorite films of the year!) 2) I really
did write these last minute, so I have not proofread anything I’ve written.
Please don’t judge me for inevitable mistakes.
BEST
PICTURE:
My
Predictions:
The
Banshees of Inisherin
Everything
Everywhere All at Once
Elvis
Tár
The
Fabelmans
Avatar:
The Way of Water
All
Quiet on the Western Front
Top
Gun: Maverick
Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
The
Woman King
Contenders:
Living
Women
Talking
Babylon
Aftersun
Till
Longshots:
RRR
Decision
to Leave
Triangle
of Sadness
Glass
Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Nope
She
Said
The
Whale
Guillermo
del Toro’s Pinocchio
The
two surest bets for Best Picture nominations are The Banshees of Inisherin and
Everything Everywhere All at Once. Both have received vast critical
acclaim and have managed to appear on just about every precursor list up until
now. Close behind are Elvis, Tár, and The Fabelmans—the
latter of which was once seen as the frontrunner to win it all but (for now at
least) seems to be settling for nominee-only status. The sixth film I see as a
surefire bet to get a nomination is Avatar: The Way of Water, the box
office juggernaut which will likely follow in the footsteps of its predecessor
to do very well in numerous categories, including here. Any of these six films
getting left off of the Best Picture ballot would be an unprecedented upset.
After
these six, I feel pretty comfortable about predicting All Quiet on the
Western Front and Top Gun: Maverick. Despite Maverick’s
commercial success this summer, I was dubious when it was being heralded as a
Best Picture contender. But it has managed to not lose momentum and has
exceeded my expectations in an awards season that has leaned heavily on box
office clout. I also have increasingly good feelings about All Quiet on the
Western Front. The German war epic distributed by Netflix might not have as
much buzz as the other films on this list, but as time has gone on this season
I’ve felt stronger and stronger that it’s going to sneak in here. The Academy
has been much kinder to international films in recent years, and with how Best
Picture nomination voting occurs, I think this film easily has the support
needed. It’s done pretty well in the latter part of the awards season—with a
particularly impressive showing at the BAFTAs—and should be a contender not
just here but in many of the technical categories as well. It’s maybe a little
gutsy to rate it so high, but I feel confident in my prediction. It might be
the biggest surprise of nomination day.
That
leaves two slots left which, frankly, could go in any direction. I selected Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever and The Woman King, and while I’m happy
with those predictions, I don’t think they’re certainties by any means. The
first Black Panther film became the first (and so far only) Marvel
Cinematic Universe film to earn a Best Picture nomination, but it did so partly
because of the excitement surrounding the incredible world designed by director
Ryan Coogler and his team. Coogler is still great, but despite his best
efforts, the second film feels far more like your average MCU film than the
first one—and the reaction to it and buzz surrounding it is far more muted. The
voting bloc of the Academy that is going to respond to the major franchise
actions movies is more likely to look at Avatar and Maverick,
which could hurt Wakanda Forever’s chances. The Woman King is in
an even more dubious position. Another box office success, The Woman King
should have been one of the biggest movies of the year, but I feel like its
buzz has been drowned out by some of the bigger (and again, more franchised)
names I’ve already mentioned. If it’s going to be in this lineup, it needs
considerable support behind both director Gina Prince-Bythewood and leading
actress Viola Davis and—as I’ll soon discuss—neither of those are assured
nominations at this point. I do think it has a good chance at a nomination, but
I could just as easily see it getting all but shut out of the Oscars. It’s in a
precarious position at the moment, with a good-but-not-great scorecard based on
precursor awards.
The
problem, as always, is that even if I’m not feeling positive about Wakanda
Forever and The Woman King, I don’t know what film will take their
place. I very nearly put Living on the list above both of them—this
quiet drama that features a knockout performance from Bill Nighy can blame its
late release date for the lack of audience recognition, but it’s the sort of
film the Academy responds to and could easily be the sort of unexpected but not
out-of-the-blue nominee that the Oscars are known for. I’m also holding out at
least some hope for Women Talking—Sarah Polley’s Mennonite drama was at
one point seen as a Best Picture frontrunner due to its excellent reception on
the film festival circuit. Over time, it seems like critics have responded to
the film more than voters, but it’s a film that’s not without its supporters
and I’d love to see its early buzz float it back into the race. Babylon and
Till are—similar to Women Talking—films that seemed to have much
better chances at a nomination a month or so ago. For Babylon, things
immediately went south once the film was released and the critical response was
less than desired. But I don’t think it would be wise to completely count it
out (unlike films in a similar position, such as Empire of Light and White
Noise which were highly anticipated but not even in the conversation
anymore). Then there’s Till, which out of any film I’ve mentioned thus
far FEELS like the sort of Oscar bait that usually claims a few of the
nomination spots. In theory it should be a lock, but that hasn’t materialized
thus far, and right now its best bet for an Oscar nomination lies on the
shoulders of its star Danielle Deadwyler. A bit of a dark horse that I could
actually see pulling off a nomination is Aftersun. Charlotte Wells’
debut has been one of the best reviewed films of the year, and has pulled off a
few upsets at precursor awards ceremonies. If it was being distributed by a
company other than A24, I think a legitimate campaign could have been launched
to improve this film’s chances, but it’s a film with a strong cheering section
that could pull off an upset.
Then
we have my longshots, which are films that I would be very surprised to see get
a nomination, but also which I feel should not be counted out of the
conversation entirely. If All Quiet on the Western Front doesn’t earn
its expected Best Picture nomination, that opens the door for another
international film to take its place. Decision to Leave is its closest
competition in the Best International Film category, and its strong showing at
the Cannes Film Festival keeps it in the running here. Speaking of Cannes,
Palme d’Or winner Triangle of Sadness is primarily in English, but feels
very much like an international film, and while it might be too weird for the
Academy, might be primed to pull off an upset if its fans come out in full
force. Best Picture feels like a stretch, but there are a few categories where
I don’t think this arthouse darling should be counted out. The last
international film that has gotten quite a bit of discussion is RRR. The
Indian “historical” action film is one of the most unexpected hits of the year,
but the fact that it didn’t dominate the shortlists in the technical categories
(how did it not get shortlisted for Visual Effects of all things?!?!) means the
Academy might not love it as much as its fans hoped. And while it’s had a
decent awards seasons, its inclusion in the Best Picture category has been few
and far between. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery definitely got a Best
Picture push when it was included in this category at the PGA Awards (a
reliable Oscars bellwether) but the Oscars aren’t always the biggest fan of
sequels, and we already have several buzzy sequels in the running. Nope
is another box office success that shouldn’t be completely counted out here,
but the buzz surrounding it has thus far not lead to the biggest awards haul
this year. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio was at one point gaining some
momentum as the rare animated film to get attention here, and Netflix did put
quite a bit of money behind its campaign. After Nightmare Alley
overperformed with nominations last year, it’s clear that the Academy has
officially fully embraced del Toro—but based on how the season has gone, it
will likely have to settle as simply being the frontrunner for animated
feature. Lastly we have two smaller indie films: She Said and The
Whale. I really wish that She Said had more of a shot, as it’s a
great film and it would be nice to see the Oscars reward a film that is so
necessarily critical of the film industry’s greatest shame. But perhaps because
of the film’s uncomfortable subject matter, She Said has sadly not
gotten its due this season and it would be a big, unexpected jump from the
Academy if it gains recognition here. As for The Whale, the film has not
been as well regarded as the performance of its leading actor, but after its
surprise nomination at the PGA Awards, it’s possible it could sneak in.
BEST
DIRECTOR:
My
Predictions:
James
Cameron—Avatar: The Way of Water
Todd
Field—Tár
Steven
Spielberg—The Fabelmans
Martin
McDonagh—The Banshees of Inisherin
Dan
Kwan and Daniel Scheinert—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Contenders:
Joseph
Kosinski—Top Gun: Maverick
Baz
Luhrmann—Elvis
Edward
Berger—All Quiet on the Western Front
Gina
Prince Bythewood—The Woman King
Sarah
Polley—Women Talking
S.S.
Rajamouli—RRR
Upsets:
Damien
Chazelle—Babylon
Ruben
Östlund—Triangle of Sadness
Park
Chan-wook—Decision to Leave
Charlotte
Wells—Aftersun
To
consider Best Director, we have to look at Best Picture. It’s incredibly rare
that the Best Picture winner is not recognized in this category, so the most
likely Best Picture contenders definitely have an edge. In my Best Picture
analysis, I named the 6 films that I feel are locks for a nomination, and it’s
no surprise that my predictions in this category are comprised entirely of
films within those six. The 6th film I mentioned in that group is Elvis,
and I could see Baz Luhrmann sneaking in here for his first ever nomination in
this category, but the fact that he missed out at the DGA Awards cemented my
feeling that he's not a frontrunner here. Speaking of the DGA Awards, the only
nominee who I didn’t include here is Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick,
who didn’t make my predictions but who I would absolutely not be surprised to
see in this lineup. I’m also not counting out Edward Berger—as I’ve already
mentioned, I could see All Quiet on the Western Front be the biggest
surprise of nomination day. This category tends to reward more technically
impressive films, and that combined with the strong international contingent
that’s represented here is a good sign for his chances at pulling off an upset.
Lastly, it’s pretty telling that the potential nominees I’ve mentioned thus far
have all been men. This category has been primarily male-dominated, but has
been slowly (very, very slowly) improving in the last few years. Women have won
this award the past two years, and if voters remain conscious about representation
while filling out their ballots, perhaps this will help directors such as Gina
Prince-Bythewood and Sarah Polley (and potentially even Charlotte Wells). In
the past few years, we’ve also seen a rise in directors receiving nominations
despite their films not being included in Best Picture. Typically, this happens
for non-American directors (like Pawel Pawlikowski and Thomas Vinterberg),
showing the influence of the international voting bloc here. That opens the
door for Park Chan-wook and Ruben Östlund, and could especially help out S.S.
Rajamouli, as RRR features the sort of special effects wizardry of which
voters particularly take note. That sort of in-your-face directing could also
help Damien Chazelle. If Babylon overperforms with Academy voters, previous-winner
Chazelle could pull off an upset. Even the film’s harshest critics would agree
that Chazelle does a LOT of directing in Babylon, and whether that
directing is good or not might be besides the point.
BEST
ACTRESS:
My
Predictions:
Cate
Blanchett—Tár
Michelle
Yeoh—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Viola
Davis—The Woman King
Michelle
Williams—The Fabelmans
Ana
de Armas—Blonde
Contenders:
Danielle
Deadwyler—Till
Olivia
Colman—Empire of Light
Margot
Robbie—Babylon
Long
Shots:
Rooney
Mara—Women Talking
Tang
Wei—Decision to Leave
Emma
Thompson—Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Dark
Horse:
Andrea
Riseborough—To Leslie
This
is a particularly competitive category this year, and the only locks at this
point are Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh. Michelle Williams and Viola Davis
have both had some major misses on their pre-Oscars scorecard, which means
they’re vulnerable here, but after Blanchett and Yeoh they’ve been the most
consistent nominees and either of them not making the lineup would be a
surprise. That means there’s one spot left and it’s a bit of a toss-up to guess
who’s going to get it. The two most likely contenders are Ana de Armas for Blonde
and Danielle Deadwyler for Till. In general people like Till and
particularly like Deadwyler’s work, but the lack of flashiness in the project
that hurt the film’s Best Picture chances are the reason I personally felt I
had to leave Deadwyler off of my list. As for de Armas, Blonde is one of
the most divisive films of the year, and the negative reactions to the film
don’t exactly help her, but she has managed to float above thoughts of the film
itself the entire awards season. She has very quickly become a prominent name
in the industry, and I ultimately have to give her the edge over Deadwyler. In
a similar boat are Margot Robbie and Olivia Colman, both of whom deliver
performances that have received more acclaim than the films themselves. Neither
have the scorecard that de Armas and Deadwyler do, but both are also previous
nominees that the Academy clearly responds to. There are often at least a
couple of surprises in the acting categories, and based on name recognition
alone, both Robbie and Colman have potential to pull an upset here. There had
been some early buzz for Rooney Mara—the only cast member for Women Talking
not submitted in the supporting category—but in such a competitive year, a performance
that is so much a part of an ensemble is going to struggle. Tang Wei is
phenomenal in Decision to Leave, and if the Academy gives that film more
love than expected she could sneak in at the last minute. Lastly, Emma Thompson
recently got a BAFTA nomination for Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, which
puts her back into the running—but it’s probably a case of too little momentum
too late.
Finally,
I have to talk about Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie. To be honest, I
strongly considered not doing this post this year, given how late I’m getting
it out. But the campaign around Riseborough is so fascinating that it
singlehandedly convinced me to do it. Riseborough is, I think, one of the best
film actors working today. She’s incredible in pretty much everything she does,
and her roles are wildly different from project to project. This year, she
starred in a quiet drama called To Leslie about a recovering addict
trying to start a new life. The film didn’t gain much attention, and
Riseborough’s performance hasn’t exactly been gaining recognition, outside of a
nomination at the Independent Spirit Awards. I love the Spirit Awards, but
considering that last year exactly 0 of the 10 leading performance nominees
were recognized by the Oscars, this this isn’t exactly the best sign for
Riseborough’s Oscar chances. But, something very interesting has been
happening. Right as Oscar voting opened up, multiple celebrities—out of the
blue—started posting on social media about Riseborough’s performance. It
started with Gwyneth Paltrow, but soon such notable figures such as Kate
Winslet, Amy Adams, Cate Blanchett, Charlize Theron, Edward Norton, Jane Fonda,
and many more started talking about this movie; oftentimes with the same
wording, and very pointedly addressing their comments towards the Academy. To
be clear, none of these celebrities have anything to do with To, Leslie,
and it’s making people take note of a film that was on almost nobody’s radar
until now (even Barack Obama updated his end-of-year list to include To,
Leslie). If Oscar voters do check out the film, Riseborough has a shot. I
personally didn’t love the movie (it’s really depressing) but her work is not
only strong, it’s the sort of subject material that the Oscars loves to reward.
I don’t know if Riseborough has a shot at all. But as an Oscars prognosticator,
it’s a fascinating wrinkle in the race. It’s an unconventional approach, and while
it wouldn’t be the first Oscars campaign to utilize social media, it would
definitely be the first one to use EXCLUSIVELY social media. It might mean
nothing, it might mean that Riseborough will have a better shot for future
performances, and it just might land her a truly unprecedented nomination. If
it does, it would be a game changer for sure. And, for the record, Riseborough
is great in To Leslie, but is even better in another film this year
called Please Baby Please. If you’re not familiar with her work, check
these two films out and you won’t believe it’s the same person!
BEST
ACTOR:
My
Predictions:
Colin
Farrell—The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan
Fraser—The Whale
Austin
Butler—Elvis
Bill
Nighy—Living
Paul
Mescal—Aftersun
Contenders:
Jeremy
Pope—The Inspection
Hugh
Jackman—The Son
Tom
Cruise—Top Gun: Maverick
Diego
Calva—Babylon
Gabriel
LaBelle—The Fabelmans
Adam
Sandler—Hustle
At
this point, the Best Actor race is a toss-up between three contenders: Colin
Farrell, Brendan Fraser, and Austin Butler. All are going to be nominated.
While not as much of a certainty as the other three, Bill Nighy is the clear
fourth pick for a nomination for his incredible work in Living. But
while these four have risen to the top, the fifth spot is anyone’s guess. Typically,
my default when I’m unsure about the acting categories is to look at the SAG
Awards. But this year, the fifth Best Actor spot went to Adam Sandler in Hustle.
He’s great in it, but considering he didn’t get a nomination for his much more
buzzed-about performance in Uncut Gems a few years ago, I don’t see that
nomination repeating at the Oscars. Instead, I see two scenarios for how this
final spot will be chosen. In the first scenario, the Academy will reward the leading
performance in a film that’s in the Best Picture conversation—in this case that
would mean Tom Cruise, Diego Calva, or Gabriel LaBelle, with Cruise’s nostalgia
factor making him the most likely of these three. In the second scenario, the
Academy has the opportunity to reward a performance in a film that is otherwise
not getting a lot of attention—such as Paul Mescal in Aftersun, Jeremy
Pope in The Inspection or Hugh Jackman in The Son. All three of
these would have benefited from a SAG nomination, but I don’t think any should
be counted out. I’ve talked already about how Aftersun could potentially
have more support than most prognosticators are giving it credit for, and in
many ways its best chance at a nomination is for Mescal here. As a rising star
in the industry, this might just be his time.
And
here’s something cool—with the exception of Cruise and Jackman, every other
person I’ve mentioned has never been nominated before. It’s very rare for an
acting category to be composed of entirely first-time nominees—I genuinely
couldn’t even tell you the last time that happened. And while that alone might
mean that Cruise has a better shot than I’m giving him credit for, I’m really
rooting for an all first-timers lineup come Oscar night!
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
My
Predictions:
Kerry
Condon—The Banshees of Inisherin
Angela
Bassett—Black Panther: Wakanda
Stephanie
Hsu—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong
Chau—The Whale
Jessie
Buckley—Women Talking
Contenders:
Jamie
Lee Curtis—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly
de Leon—Triangle of Sadness
Nina
Hoss—Tár
Janelle
Monáe—Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Longshots:
Carey
Mulligan—She Said
Claire
Foy—Women Talking
Condon
and Bassett have been the two most reliable names in this lineup all season
long, and should easily land nominations here as well. Hong Chau has also performed
consistently all season for her work in The Whale (absolutely the best
part of the movie) and I think her scorecard is enough for her to be a solid
bet at the Oscars as well. Everything Everywhere All at Once is bound to
get at least one nomination here as well…but the question is for who? Both
Stephanie Hsu and Jamie Lee Curtis have done well here (and both nabbed SAG
nominations) and I definitely think it’s possible for both to make the final
lineup together. But I could also see a scenario where voters place their votes
behind one over the other. That might be Curtis, who earned a BAFTA nomination
while Hsu was left off of the longlist. But I hold out hope that, if there’s
only room for one of them, the Academy will gravitate towards Hsu, who has a
much more substantial role in the film which hopefully makes up for her not
being as recognizable name as Curtis in the industry. Again, they could easily
both be recognized, but I only included Hsu because I’m holding out hope that
Jessie Buckley makes it in. Buckley received her first nomination last year, so
is definitely on the Academy’s radar, and if anyone from Women Talking’s phenomenal
ensemble cast has a chance it’s her (although if Women Talking performs
better than I’m expected, both Buckley and co-star Claire Foy could make a
showing). If Buckley doesn’t take the fifth spot, there are a few other
potential performances that could find their way comfortably into this group.
The most exciting would be Dolly de Leon, whose performance in Triangle of
Sadness at the age of 53 is truly groundbreaking. Strong critical reviews
for her work have transferred into accolades which are a bit too erratic for me
to feel strong about her Oscars chances, but consistent enough that I’m not
counting her out (and am definitely rooting for her). Its likely the Oscars are
going to love Tár, and if they do, that might provide a boost for Nina
Hoss. And while I don’t think Glass Onion hasn’t done enough to be an
Oscars heavyweight (although future Benoit Blanc mysteries could definitely be
in consideration) Janelle Monáe’s performance is the clear standout out of all
of the supporting cast, and has picked up a few critical nominations that
definitely have kept her in the conversation. Lastly there’s BAFTA nominee
Carey Mulligan. Once again, I’m sad about how She Said has been largely
ignored by the Academy, but Mulligan is a favorite of the Academy’s and
hopefully her understated work can get on the Academy’s radar even if the film
as a whole did not.
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
My
Predictions:
Ke
Huy Quan—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan
Gleeson—The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry
Keoghan—The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul
Dano—The Fabelmans
Eddie
Redmayne—The Good Nurse
Contenders:
Brad
Pitt—Babylon
Ben
Whishaw—Women Talking
Judd
Hirsch—The Fabelmans
Tom
Hanks—Elvis
Ralph
Fiennes—The Menu
At
this point, this award is Ke Huy Quan’s to lose. His nomination is a certainty.
Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan both do excellent work in The Banshees of
Inisherin, and both have been as consistent awards season presences as
Quan. Their nominations are also a certainty. From here things get trickier,
but I do think Paul Dano has a good shot at landing here for The Fabelmans,
especially after he landed a crucial SAG Award nomination. I could easily see
him being joined by Judd Hirsch also for The Fabelmans—his
scene-stealing performance was seen as an early favorite, but I don’t know if
Hirsch’s momentum has sustained itself for the long awards season. I could also
see Ben Whishaw and Brad Pitt sneaking in if Women Talking and Babylon
exceed expectations. But ultimately, I’m giving the fifth spot to Eddie
Redmayne for The Good Nurse. This is a movie nobody really cares about,
and Redmayne’s nod at the Golden Globes was one of the biggest headscratchers
of those nominations. But when he also got a SAG nomination, it suddenly made
him a contender instead of a longshot. And without a solid case for the other
contenders, I’m going to place him in as the sort of confusing nomination that
frequently ends up in this category (think Robert Duvall in The Judge). But
the fact that I’m choosing Redmayne pretty much by default shows you just how
much of a wildcard this final spot is, which means there could be a major
surprise. While Tom Hanks’ performance in Elvis has been much maligned,
he’s still Tom Hanks, and the Academy hasn’t exactly shied away from questionable
performances in bad prosthetics in the past. And I’m including Ralph Fiennes as
a contender simply on instinct—he’s not really picked up much attention outside
of the Golden Globes, but The Menu is the sort of movie that exists on
the Oscars’ periphery, and has done well enough that it will at least be on
voters’ attention. Fiennes gives a compelling performance that is the sort of
thing voters might respond to and include on their ballots on a whim.
BEST
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
My
Predictions:
Everything
Everywhere All at Once
The
Banshees of Inisherin
Tár
The
Fabelmans
Elvis
Contenders:
The
Woman King
Aftersun
Triangle
of Sadness
Decision
to Leave
Babylon
Nope
Armageddon
Time
Once
again, I refer to my Best Picture predictions, where I spoke of the six films
which I see as guaranteed nominees. Five of those feature original screenplays,
and I see them taking all five spots here. For Everything Everywhere All at
Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tár, and The Fabelmans, the
screenplays in particular stand out as being crucial to the success of those
films. The same isn’t true of Elvis, which means it’s going to be the
most vulnerable here. If it doesn’t make it, that opens the door for films like
The Woman King and Babylon, especially if they’re in the running
for Best Picture. It also means, we could get a weird nominee. Nope and Armageddon
Time have largely fallen out of the Best Picture conversation, but could
still do well here. Once again, Aftersun is my biggest question mark of
the awards season, and I think other than Paul Mescal in lead actor, this category
is the best show it has of entering the field. And then we have Triangle of
Sadness and Decision to Leave, which could be dark horses here if
the international voting bloc can give them enough support.
BEST
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
My
Predictions:
Glass
Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Women
Talking
She
Said
The
Whale
Contenders:
Top
Gun: Maverick
All
Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar:
The Way of Water
Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
White
Noise
Guillermo
del Toro’s Pinocchio
The
Original Screenplay category is likely going to be made up of mostly Best
Picture contenders, but the Adapted Screenplay category is a bit trickier. Most
of the Best Picture frontrunners with adapted screenplays are the box office heavyweights—films
like The Way of Water, Wakanda Forever, and Maverick. These,
along with All Quiet on the Western Front, are films where the
screenplay isn’t exactly the main thing people are talking about when they
leave the theater. None of these films should be counted out of the running
entirely, but the question is just how many of these spots will go to Best
Picture contenders, and how many spots will Academy voters give to films that
otherwise will not be as well represented. For example, neither Avatar not
Black Panther received screenplay nominations for the original films,
even though they otherwise did quite well with nominations. I think that trend
might continue this year, which is why I’ve tentatively left all of these
contenders off of my predictions. As far as sequels go, I do have high hopes
for Glass Onion in this category. The first Knives Out received
its only Oscar nomination for its screenplay, and this screenplay is even
better. I also think that movies like Living, Women Talking, and She
Said which are critical darlings that currently sit on the sidelines of the
Oscar conversation have a good shot at this category—fans of these films will
definitely rally behind them here. The same argument can be made for The
Whale, although it remains unclear just how much support this film has
outside of the performances. It’s in my fifth prediction spot at the moment,
but do think it’s vulnerable to one of the blockbusters. There also is some
buzz in this category for White Noise. Noah Baumbach’s later has been
one of the biggest disappointments of the awards season, but Baumbach has a
better Oscars track record for his screenplays than for any other category. And
while I think Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio hasn’t generated enough
buzz for Best Picture, the efforts of Netflix’s campaign for it might lead to
it getting some recognition here.
BEST
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:
My
Predictions:
All
Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Decision
to Leave (South
Korea)
Argentina,
1985 (Argentina)
Bardo,
False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Mexico)
Saint
Omer (France)
Contenders:
Close
(Belgium)
Joyland
(Pakistan)
Eo
(Poland)
Return
to Seoul (Cambodia)
Corsage
(Austria)
Longshots:
Holy
Spider (Denmark)
Last
Film Show (India)
The
Blue Caftan (Morocco)
Cairo
Conspiracy (Sweden)
The
Quiet Girl (Ireland)
On
its surface, this category seems to have six frontrunners competing for five
spots. All Quiet on the Western Front and Decision to Leave are
the two heavyweights right now, and either being left out of contention would
be pretty shocking. Argentina, 1985 has also been performing really well
all season, and its surprising win at the Golden Globes has only solidified its
position here. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths got a
pretty lukewarm critical reception, but should still make the lineup thanks to
the name recognition of director Alejandro G. Iñárritu, an Academy favorite. That
leaves two films—France’s Saint Omer and Belgium’s Close—which I
see as battling it out for the final spot. It could go either way, but
ultimately I’m giving the edge to Saint Omer which has been gaining just
a bit more attention, especially for director Alice Diop.
While
these six films are definitely the frontrunners, there are still some acclaimed
films in the running. Poland’s submission Eo is probably the best
reviewed film in contention, but I think I might be too weird for the Academy
(although I’d love to be wrong about this). Cambodia’s Return to Seoul
started appearing on quite a few end-of-year lists, and Austria’s Corsage stars
Vicky Krieps, whose name recognition could raise that film’s chances. The
biggest wildcard here is probably Joyland. This film was notoriously
banned in a lot of theaters in its home country of Pakistan due to having
various LGBTQ+ characters and themes, and some recognition by the Academy would
be a wonderful statement. I’ve heard only incredible things about it, and while
it doesn’t feel like it has as much buzz as the other films I’ve mentioned, the
fact that it hasn’t been released in the U.S. yet might be the reason why. I
could see it taking a spot from one of my predictions, I just don’t know which
one. But one of the things I love about this category is that it frequently has
some surprises up its sleeve. Remember when Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom was
nominated here? None of the films on the shortlist should be considered out of
contention.
BEST
ANIMATED FEATURE:
My
Predictions:
Guillermo
del Toro’s Pinocchio
Turning
Red
Puss
in Boots: The Last Wish
Marcel
the Shell with Shoes On
Wendell
& Wild
Contenders:
Strange
World
The
Sea Beast
The
Bad Guys
Wild
Cards:
Inu-Oh
Little
Nicholas, Happy as Can Be
Mad
God
Apollo
10 ½: A Space Age Childhood
Due
to the lockdown in 2020, there was a renewed interest in animation from a
production standpoint, as these were films that could be made while observing
social distancing. We’re starting to see the effects of this investment, and 2022
was truly an excellent year for animation. Hopefully this year’s nominees will
reflect that. Right now, the frontrunner is Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio,
although Pixar’s Turning Red is right on its heels and will definitely
be joining it as a nominee. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is a phenomenal
sequel which has been picking up momentum since its December release, and A24’s
Marcel the Shell with Shoes has been doing great all awards season long.
These four films are all great, all very different, and all deserving of
recognition here. The question is what film will join it in the fifth spot. A
few months ago, I’d have assumed that Disney’s entry Strange World would
be a shoo-in, but it received a decidedly lukewarm reception and has failed to pick
up some necessary precursors leading up to the Oscars. Netflix has put all of
its campaign efforts behind Pinocchio, but has three more contenders in Wendell
& Wild, The Sea Beast, and Apollo 10 ½: A Space Age
Childhood. Of these three, Richard Linklater’s Apollo 10 ½ is
definitely the least likely nominee. It actually was initially deemed
ineligible for this category, when the Academy decided that the rotoscope style
it uses was not “real animation.” Thanks to outcry from the industry, that
decision was reversed, so it’s great to see Apollo 10 ½ in contention at
all, and while it’s probably still not high profile enough to make it to the
winner’s circle, that controversy might at least have sparked an interest in
voters’ minds. Still, amongst the Netflix entries, it faces stiff competition
against the far more conventional films The Sea Beast and Wendell
& Wild. A sequel to The Sea Beast was recently announced, which
might give it some momentum, but I’m thinking the name recognition of producer
Jordan Peele might push Wendell & Wild over the edge to take the
fifth spot. I also wouldn’t count out The Bad Guys—a DreamWorks film
that might have better chances than I’m giving it credit for. It feels like it didn’t
make much of a cultural impact, but it’s actually the third highest-grossing
animated film of 2023, and it features a surprisingly smart screenplay and a
solid Rotten Tomatoes score.
Best
Animated Feature does occasionally feature some out of left field nominees, and
there are a few films on the sidelines that just might upset the bigger names.
Phil Tippett’s disturbing Mad God is a wildly inventive nightmare which
might have some hidden industry support. Little Nicholas, Happy as Can Be
is a charming international film which might sneak into the category like
previous nominees The Breadwinner, My Life as a Courgette, and Ernest
& Celestine. Lastly, Masaaki Yuasa’s glam-rock opera Inu-Oh was
one of the most surprising nominees at the Golden Globes, and I’d love to see
it pull off a similarly shocking upset here.
BEST
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
My
Predictions:
All
the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Navalny
All
That Breathes
Moonage
Daydream
Bad
Axe
Contenders:
Fire
of Love
Descendant
The
Territory
Last
Flight Home
Don’t
Count Out:
Retrograde
Children
of the Mist
Hidden
Letters
A
House Made of Splinters
The
Janes
Hallelujah:
Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song
Documentary
Feature is usually a pretty exciting category, and one that can feature a lot
of surprises. There has been a lot of buzz surrounding All the Beauty and
the Bloodshed, from director Laura Poitras who is documentary royalty. Navalny
is the sort of political thriller that tends to do well here, and features a
jaw-dropping I-can’t-believe-they-caught-that-on-camera moment that voters will
undoubtedly respond to. Ever since Summer of Soul won last year, the
door has opened for other archival music films to do well here, and Moonage
Daydream has received quite a lot of acclaim. Rounding out my predictions
are All That Breathes—a poetic look at the environmental crisis—and Bad
Axe, a powerful and personal film which examines racial tensions amidst the
COVID-19 pandemic.
All
of these are great, but in such a strong year for docs, I can’t stand 100%
behind any of these predictions. An argument really could be made for any of
the fifteen docs on the shortlist—especially well-received films like Descendant,
The Territory, and Last Flight Home. My biggest gamble here is not
picking Fire of Love, a profile of a husband-and-wife team of
volcanologists. It’s a great movie, and one of the most decorated documentaries
of the year, but I fear it’s going to be too experimental and quirky for the
Oscars’ more traditional tastes.
BEST
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:
My
Predictions:
The
Whale
Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
All
Quiet on the Western Front
The
Batman
Elvis
Contenders:
Babylon
Blonde
Crimes
of the Future
Emancipation
Amsterdam
Makeup
& Hairstyling is an incredible artform, which can add so much value to a
film…which makes it ESPECIALLY frustrating that this category has essentially
become Best Fatsuit. For the past five years, fatsuits have been at the center
of the winning campaigns in this category, and there’s no reason to think that
won’t continue this year. The Whale, The Batman, and Elvis all
heavily feature fatsuits (especially The Whale) and should be safe here.
I also think the effective war makeup of All Quiet on the Western Front and
the creative and stunning work in Black Panther: Wakanda have a good
chance of making it into this category and, as a plus, aren’t incredibly
offensive and harmful the way that fatsuits are!!!
I
could definitely see the Hollywood glamor of Babylon making its way into
this category. And while I think it’s going to be too weird for them, maybe the
Oscars will recognize the excellent elevated body horror of Crimes of the
Future. Who knows, maybe they’ll see the word “Hairstyling” next to the
title “Blonde” and not be able to resist nominating it. But in general,
I feel pretty good about my predictions for this category, as much as my
predictions annoy me.
Best
Original Score:
My
Predictions:
Babylon
Guillermo
del Toro’s Pinocchio
The
Fabelmans
The
Banshees of Inisherin
Women
Talking
Contenders:
The
Woman King
Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything
Everywhere All at Once
Glass
Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
All
Quiet on the Western Front
Devotion
Nope
Avatar:
The Way of Water
She
Said
Lol:
Don’t
Worry Darling
This
is another tough category, for sure, with no real surefire bets, and plenty of
opportunities to surprise (except for Don’t Worry Darling…sorry John
Powell). I’m most confident in my prediction of Justin Hurwitz’s score for Babylon—he
won an Oscar in this category for La La Land and many have cited the
score for Babylon as one of the film’s strongest points. John Williams
and Alexandre Desplat are also Academy favorites, and their work for The
Fabelmans and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is the sort of fare
that I think voters will gravitate towards. I absolutely loved Carter Burwell’s
score for The Banshees of Inisherin, which might be why I think it has a
better chance in this category than others are giving it. But also, this is a category
that is frequently linked to Best Picture more than people realize (the winner
for Best Original Score has also been nominated for Best Picture in 17 of the
last 20 years). So if The Banshees of Inisherin can get a nomination
here, that bodes well for its eventual Best Picture chances. Lastly, I’m picking
Hildur Guðnadóttir’s score for Women Talking—it’s a really cool score
from someone who is quickly becoming one of the most recognizable composers in
the industry. Still, I’m not confident in these picks at all. Guðnadóttir isn’t
the only rising star here—Terence Blanchard (The Woman King), Nicholas
Britell (She Said) and Ludwig Göransson (Black Panther: Wakanda
Forever) are also definitely ones to watch. And I’m hoping to see Chandra
Dancy nominated for the film Devotion. While not the most high-profile
title in contention, Dancy would be the first Black woman to be nominated in
this category.
BEST
ORIGINAL SONG:
My
Predictions:
“Naatu
Naatu” from RRR
“Ciao
Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Hold
My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift
Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda
“Applause”
from Tell It Like a Woman
Contenders:
“Good
Afternoon” from Spirited
“This
Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
“Carolina”
from Where the Crawdads Sing
“Stand
Up” from Till
“Nothing
Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
Also
Shortlisted:
“My
Mind & Me” from Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me
“New
Body Rhumba” from White Noise
“Time”
from Amsterdam
“Dust
& Ash” from The Voice of Dust and Ash
“Til
You’re Home” from A Man Called Otto
This
year’s Original Song shortlist features three songs that are actually performed
as musical numbers in their respective films—those are “Naatu Naatu,” “Ciao
Papa,” and “Good Afternoon.” Of these three, it’s “Naatu Naatu” and “Ciao Papa”
that are the clear favorites. “Naatu Naatu” is truly an unforgettable part of RRR,
and could make history as the greatest live performance at the Oscars ever.
“Ciao Papa” is a sweet ballad which is by far the best song in Pinocchio,
and is the sort of song the Academy has frequently rewarded as of late. While
“Good Afternoon” is a fun song (and is penned by previous Oscar winners in this
category), I think it might get beaten out by some of the star power that lends
its name to other songs in contention. This year’s lineup of potential nominees
features numbers from superstars such as Lady Gaga, Rihanna, David Byrne,
Mitski, Selena Gomez, Taylor Swift, and Drake, and that sort of name
recognition is a great way to get recognized by the Academy. Of the star-backed
numbers, I think the songs by Lady Gaga and Rihanna are the most likely to make
the lineup. Lastly, we have “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman which
is going to get a nomination solely because it’s written by Diane Warren. This
is the weirdest game the Academy plays. Every year, Diane Warren writes a song
for a movie nobody has heard of, and every year the Academy nominates it even
though it’s (usually) only okay and even though they know she’s never going to
win. She has received a record 13 nominations without a win in this category.
It’s a bizarre tradition, but she has gotten a nomination in this category
eight of the last nine years so there’s no reason to think it’s going to stop
now.
BEST
SOUND:
My
Predictions:
Top
Gun: Maverick
All
Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Avatar:
The Way of Water
Everything
Everywhere All at Once
Contenders:
Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
Moonage
Daydream
The
Batman
Babylon
Guillermo
del Toro’s Pinocchio
As
we get into the more technical categories, you’re going to find me getting
pretty repetitive. The technical categories love action movies and war movies,
so with a record number of action movies expected to be on the Academy’s radar,
you’re going to see me saying the names Top Gun: Maverick, All Quiet on the
Western Front, and Avatar: The Way of Water an awful lot. There’s
really no reason to expect these three films to dominate the technical
categories, although it will be exciting to see them compete against each other
on Oscar night itself. In this particular category, the fact that Elvis
is a film about music gives it an extra edge, and I do think the use of sound
in Everything Everywhere All at Once is exemplary enough for the Academy
to take note. Ultimately, I think Wakanda Forever and The Batman are
going to be beaten out of this one, but I would love to see some recognition
for Moonage Daydream, which would become the first documentary to be
nominated in this category.
BEST
VISUAL EFFECTS:
My
Predictions:
Avatar:
The Way of Water
Top
Gun: Maverick
All
Quiet on the Western Front
Doctor
Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Nope
Contenders:
Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
The
Batman
Jurassic
World Dominion
Fantastic
Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Thirteen
Lives
As
I said in the previous category, you’re going to see my first three picks here
showing up in a lot of the technical categories. That leaves just two spots for
other nominees. Of the two Marvel films in contention, Black Panther:
Wakanda Forever is definitely going to be the one most favored by the
Academy, but I think the effects of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of
Madness are a bit showier and a bit more likely to gain recognition here.
After all, the first Doctor Strange movie was nominated in this
category, but the first Black Panther was not despite getting a Best
Picture nomination. I’m also putting Nope here. Honestly, The Batman
is probably a better bet, but if I’m correct this is the only category that Nope
really has a shot at, and I just think the movie has enough fans that
they’re going to rally here. Plus, the effects were great!
BEST
FILM EDITING:
My
Predictions:
Top
Gun: Maverick
Avatar:
The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything
Everywhere All at Once
All
Quiet on the Western Front
Contenders:
The
Fabelmans
The
Banshees of Inisherin
Babylon
Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
Glass
Onion
Nope
Tár
Another
technical category, so I am once again recognizing Maverick, Way of Water,
and All Quiet on the Western Front. But I also think the frenetic
energies of Elvis and Everything Everywhere All at Once really
put the editing front and center. Given that this category is frequently
influenced by the Best Picture lineup, they should do well here. That also
means that any potential Best Picture contender shouldn’t be counted out here.
The editing for The Fabelmans is pretty excellent, and I think would
have made my predictions in a year that didn’t have so many action movies.
Nonetheless, I think it could easily take the place of any of the films I put
forward. As for The Banshees of Inisherin, the editing isn’t as flashy,
but as a potential Best Picture winner, it shouldn’t be counted out here. While
missing out on a nomination here isn’t necessarily a bad sign, should it score
a nomination here, that’s a really good indication that it has a lot of support
from within the Academy. This is going to be a crucial category to watch in
terms of seeing which films the Academy has their eyes on.
BEST
PRODUCTION DESIGN:
My
Predictions:
Avatar:
The Way of Water
Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The
Fabelmans
Everything
Everywhere All at Once
Contenders:
Top
Gun: Maverick
All
Quiet on the Western Front
Glass
Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The
Batman
Babylon
Bardo,
False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Nope
Out
of all of the categories this year, Best Production Design might just be the
most competitive. There are a lot of high profile films with distinct
production designs, and this has made it one of the hardest categories to
predict. It’s so difficult that I’ve actually left Top Gun: Maverick and
All Quiet on the Western Front off of my list, despite predicting them
for almost every other technical category. I do think The Way of Water
is enough of a juggernaut that it will be rewarded here, and even though I
think Wakanda Forever is going to miss out on a lot of categories, the
production design specifically is too strong to be ignored. Elvis and The
Fabelmans would be major exclusions should they miss out on a nomination,
and the campaign for Everything Everywhere All at Once has actually put
the production design front and center, which I think will help it secure the
final slot. Still, like I said, it’s a competitive category. Glass Onion: A
Knives Out Mystery and Babylon are definitely both strong contenders
here, and I think this category might be The Batman’s best shot at
receiving any Oscar glory. In such a competitive year, there are so many strong
options that no matter what happens, I’m going to be surprised by the final
lineup. In fact, the thing that will surprise me the most is if I somehow guess
all five correctly!
BEST
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
My
Predictions:
Top
Gun: Maverick
The
Fabelmans
Empire
of Light
Bardo,
False Chronicle on a Handful of Truths
All
Quiet on the Western Front
Contenders:
Elvis
Everything
Everywhere All at Once
The
Batman
Nope
Babylon
Avatar:
The Way of Water
The
cinematography of Top Gun: Maverick is arguably the most talked-about
aspect of that film. It’s a shoo-in for here. I also think the cinematography
in The Fabelmans from Oscars stalwart Janusz Kaminski is a pretty safe
bet. While Empire of Light has very little chance of winning, it’s
unwise to bet against Roger Deakins, whose fellow cinematographers take every
chance to recognize him here (and with good reason!) I’ve seen a lot of
prognosticators divided on how well Bardo will do with the Oscars, but
if it should be recognized in any category it’s here. For the last spot, I’m
going to continue to bet on All Quiet on the Western Front to do well,
but I’m definitely not sure, and in particular, I could see Elvis or Everything
Everywhere All at Once stealing the spot away from it. The Batman, Nope,
and Babylon are three films that in general I’m assuming won’t do well
with the Academy, but if I’m wrong and they all do better than my expectations,
this would be a strong category for all of them. Lastly, I think cinematography
is The Way of Water’s weakest technical element, but it might get a
nomination here just by default.
BEST
COSTUME DESIGN:
My
Predictions:
Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
Mrs.
Harris Goes to Paris
Babylon
Elvis
The
Woman King
Contenders:
Glass
Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Women
Talking
Living
Everything
Everywhere All at Once
Avatar:
The Way of Water
A
great way to predict this category is to look at the Costume Designers Guild
Awards. The CDGAs divide their film awards into three categories—Contemporary,
Period, and Sci-Fi/Fantasy films—and typically a nomination in one of those
categories is going to be a must if you’re going to gain Oscars recognition. In
general, contemporary films have a much rougher path to the Oscars than films
in the other categories, but of this year’s nominees, I see Glass Onion
and Women Talking as having at least some chance at a nomination, due to
how distinct the costumes have to be for both films. Still, I think they’re
going to lose out to nominees in the other categories. It feels like a Period
Film year, with the costumes from Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (a film
literally about couture fashion), Babylon, Elvis, and The Woman King being
the exact sort of stuff the Oscars likes. Of the CDGA nominees in the
Sci-Fi/Fantasy category, the one I see most likely joining the period films is Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever, although The Way of Water and Everything
Everywhere All at Once shouldn’t be completely ruled out. Lastly, the only
film I’ve mentioned above that did NOT get a CDGA nomination is Living.
The costumes are done by Sandy Powell, a three-time Oscar winner and fifteen-time
nominee, and her name alone should include her in the Oscars conversation. I’ll
chalk her snub by the CDGAs to the period film category simply being so crowded,
and we’ll have to see if the Oscars follow suit.
BEST
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM:
My
Predictions:
As
Far as They Can Run
38
at the Garden
Nuisance
Bear
Stranger
at the Gate
Anastasia
Contenders:
The
Martha Mitchell Effect
Angola
Do You Hear Us? Voices from a Plantation Prison
Haulout
The
Flagmakers
Holding
Moses
American
Justice on Trial: People v. Newton
Happiness
Is £4 Million
Shut
Up and Paint
How
Do You Measure a Year
We’ve
reached everybody’s favorite categories: THE SHORT FILMS! If you’ve read my
Oscars coverage before, you know I’m a big champion of the short films,
although they are admittedly quite hard to predict. While I do have a little
bit to go on in the other short film categories, I’m honestly going purely
based on instinct with this one, as I haven’t had a chance to watch most of the
nominees yet. But even if I had, I don’t know if it would have helped, as this
is an unpredictable category which gets more competitive each year as streaming
services are embracing short-term journalism. Whatever the nominees end up
being, I’m excited to see the lineup and hope this trend of a strong
Documentary Short Film category continues for years to come.
BEST
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:
My
Predictions:
Le
Pupille
Ivalu
The
Night Ride
The
Lone Wolf
An
Irish Goodbye
Contenders:
Tula
Warsha
The
Red Suitcase
Nakam
The
Right Words
All
in Favor
Almost
Home
The
Treatment
Plastic
Killer
Sideral
The
two frontrunners here have to be Le Pupille and Ivalu, as they’re
the two films with the biggest names behind them. Le Pupille comes from
established director Alice Rohrwacher, is produced by Alfonso Cuarón, and is even distributed by
Disney. The names behind Ivalu may be less recognizable, but still carry
some clout here; both director Anders Walter and producer Kim Magnusson won in
this category a few years ago for their film Helium. In a notoriously
difficult category to predict, this is enough to indicate them as frontrunners.
I’ve seen a few of the other shortlisted films, and of them, could see both The
Night Ride and The Lone Wolf playing well with the Academy, and
wouldn’t be surprised to see either make the list. My final prediction has to
go to The Irish Goodbye for the simple reason that it’s the only
shortlisted film that’s in English. This category tends to be quite
international in its nominees, but trends towards the English language when it
comes to its winners. For that reason alone, I think The Irish Goodbye might
be one to watch. But with so many of these titles not available to view, I’m
not able to put my predictions up with too much confidence.
BEST ANIMATED
SHORT FILM:
My
Predictions:
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
New Moon
Ice Merchants
Steakhouse
The Debutante
Contenders:
My Year of Dicks
The Flying Sailor
The Garbage Man
Black Slide
Sierra
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
It’s Nice in Here
Passenger
More Than I Want to Remember
Save Ralph
I can unironically say that this is one of the most exciting categories
of the year for me. When the shortlist was announced, it was exciting to see
that no major studios had any nominees in play. For the first time in my
memory, there was no Netflix, no Disney, and no Pixar. Which means that the
weird little films that so often capture my heart and make me look forward to
this category each year will get to be fully celebrated! The closest we have to
a big studio release is The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse, which
is distributed by Apple and will likely land a nomination here. I also have
high hopes for New Moon, which I have not yet seen, but which I think
has an advantage thanks to the involvement of actor/producer Colman Domingo. Of
the animated short films I’ve had a chance to watch, I think the most clearly
Oscar-friendly is the gorgeously animated Ice Merchants, about a father
and son that live in the mountains. If Oscar voters can get past the dark
subject matter, I also could see Steakhouse doing quite well here. There
are a few other good options I’ve gotten a chance to watch (such as The
Flying Sailor and The Garbage Man) but I’m going out on a limb and
picking The Debutante as my final entry simply because the animation
itself looks gorgeous.
And I’m going to end the discussion of this category, and indeed of all
of my Oscar predictions, by talking about My Year of Dicks. This short
film is something truly special, and while I think its brilliance might be lost
on older Academy voters, I’m hoping I’m wrong. It would make me so happy to see
My Year of Dicks become an Oscar-nominee. And not just because it would
be hilarious to hear that title at the ceremony. It is inventive and innovative
and a far more satisfying watch than most feature films that I saw this year.
Oscar nomination or no, it’s definitely one to check out.
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