Director
My Predictions:
Jane Campion—The Power of the Dog
Denis Villeneuve—Dune
Kenneth Branagh—Belfast
Stephen Spielberg—West Side Story
Ryusuke Hamaguchi—Drive My Car
Potential Upsets:
Paul Thomas Anderson—Licorice Pizza
Maggie Gyllenhaal—The Lost Daughter
Adam McKay—Don’t Look Up
Longshots:
Guillermo del Toro—Nightmare Alley
Ridley Scott—House of Gucci
Joel Coen—The Tragedy of Macbeth
Reinaldo Marcus Green—King Richard
Sian Heder—CODA
Asghar Farhadi—A Hero
Pedro Almodovar—Parallel Mothers
The most reliable indicator for this award is the Director’s Guild of America Award for Outstanding Directing of a Feature Film. During five of the last six years, 4 out of 5 of the nominees have overlapped (in 2018, 3 out of 5 overlapped). We can reasonably expect that trend to continue, which means that at least 3 of the 5 DGA winners will be in. This year, the DGA recognized Paul Thomas Anderson, Kenneth Branagh, Jane Campion, Steven Spielberg, and Denis Villeneuve. Campion has been sweeping this awards season and is a lock, and Villeneuve is similarly a shoo-in due to the technical achievements on display in Dune. Branagh is a good bet as well, considering how strong a Best Picture contender Belfast is. But something tells me he might be slightly vulnerable here. Belfast is a smaller-scale film, and even if it ends up taking home Best Picture I could see Branagh getting edged out the same way Peter Farrelly was for Green Book. Still, it will be quite an upset if he doesn’t make it onto the roster.
That means, if the DGAs match only 3 out of 5, then Spielberg and Anderson will be out. Spielberg is so legendary in the industry that he’s often taken for granted, and he’s recently been left out of this category even when his films score Best Picture nominations (like Bridge of Spies and The Post). West Side Story is his most flashy and assured directorial work in a while, though, and I do think he’s going to make the cut. If he doesn’t, then it doesn’t bode well for West Side Story as a whole, and the film might be in danger of being completely shut out. And then there’s Anderson, who I don’t want to count out entirely, but does seem the most vulnerable of these 5.
So, who could replace Anderson (or Spielberg? Or Branagh?)? Well, this category has been particularly receptive to directors of foreign language films of late, thanks to the expanded nominating branch. This accounts for surprise nominations in recent years like Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War and Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round. If the trend continues, then Ryusuke Hamaguchi is a likely candidate for Drive My Car, even though he hasn’t been getting recognized at a lot of other ceremonies. If not Hamaguchi, then both Asghar Farhadi for A Hero and Pedro Almodovar for Parallel Mothers might be in the race. Otherwise, the fifth slot is a bit of a wild card. Can Best Picture contenders Don’t Look Up, King Richard, and CODA translate their Best Picture buzz into a directing nod? Will industry favorites Guillermo del Toro, Joel Coen, or Ridley Scott, have more support than expected? Those are all definite possibilities, and it’s hard to work out who exactly has an advantage here. But if I had to give one director an edge to pull off a major upset, it’s Maggie Gyllenhaal. I could be very wrong, but I think that this film has a chance to really overperform with the Academy, and if so, Gyllenhaal might earn a nomination for her debut film. And if she does get a nomination, look for Olivia Colman to suddenly get a huge boost of support in the Best Actress category.
Actor
My Predictions:
Benedict Cumberbatch—The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield—tick, tick…BOOM!
Will Smith—King Richard
Denzel Washington—The Tragedy of Macbeth
Leonardo DiCaprio—Don’t Look Up
Potential Upsets:
Javier Bardem—Being the Ricardos
Longshots:
Bradley Cooper—Nightmare Alley
Simon Rex—Red Rocket
Peter Dinklage—Cyrano
Adam Driver—House of Gucci
With all of the acting categories, it’s useful to turn to the Screen Actors Guild Awards as a handy guide. Last year, this category overlapped with the SAG Awards exactly, and it reliably matches about 4 out of 5 nominees. This year, SAG has gone for Bardem, Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington. Of the three, the frontrunners are easily Cumberbatch, Garfield, and Smith, all of whom have been heavy-hitters this awards season and all of whom have been at the center of rather strong campaigns. While he’s more vulnerable for sure, I think Washington is going to make the cut, in part because there’s not a lot of competition nipping at his heels. Bardem could easily make it in, but I think it’s unlikely that SAG goes 5 for 5 two years in a row. And if he doesn’t get a nomination, it leads the 5th slot wide open for an upset. The obvious choice would be DiCaprio, who is Don’t Look Up’s best shot at scoring an acting nomination.
The fact that this category isn’t particularly crowded does open it up for a real upset. I’m talking some out-of-nowhere stuff. Simon Rex has picked up a lot of attention from critics, as has Peter Dinklage to a lesser extent, although their films have largely vanished from the Oscars conversation (unfairly, in my opinion). And then there’s Bradley Cooper and Adam Driver—neither of them have really been showing up in any of the precursor awards, but both are industry favorites and are in films that the Academy is watching. It’s possible one of them could sneak in, especially Cooper, as Nightmare Alley seems to be gathering a bit of momentum as the season has gone on.
Actress
My Predictions:
Nicole Kidman—Being the Ricardos
Olivia Colman—The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga—House of Gucci
Kristen Stewart—Spencer
Jessica Chastain—The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Potential Upsets:
Alana Haim—Licorice Pizza
Jennifer Hudson—Respect
Rachel Zegler—West Side Story
Longshots:
Frances McDormand—The Tragedy of Macbeth
Renate Reinsve—The Worst Person in the World
Penelope Cruz—Parallel Mothers
For the longest time, most prognosticators saw this category as being a runaway win for Kristen Stewart. But then the SAG Award nominations came out and Stewart wasn’t present and suddenly this category feels burst wide open. Although it would still be a surprise if she doesn’t get a nomination, she’s no longer the de facto frontrunner to win. Instead, this is a race between Nicole Kidman and Olivia Colman, both of whom would win their second Oscar in this category. Lady Gaga also seems pretty secure in her chances of a nomination for House of Gucci, especially when she scored a BAFTA nomination when Kidman and COlman didn't. It’s hard to imagine any of these four not being among the nominees.
Most seem to think that Jessica Chastain is going to be the 5th nominee for The Eyes of Tammy Faye, and while I do agree, she’s the least secure of all the expected nominees. If she doesn’t get it, her fellow SAG-nominee Jennifer Hudson might sneak in for Respect. There’s also a lot of films in the Best Picture race whose leading actresses aren’t getting much buzz, even though their performances have been well-received. For example, it’s hard to know just why actresses like Rachel Zegler, Alana Haim, and Frances McDormand haven’t been doing well with predictive awards (although Haim did score a surprise BAFTA nomination), but if the Academy likes their movies they might get in on a surge of goodwill. Renata Reinsve is a tough one to consider—I don’t think she’s going to make it in, but her work in The Worst Person in the World did earn her Best Actress at Cannes, and if the buzz around the film hit early enough maybe she’d sneak in here like she did at the BAFTAs. Lastly, and least likely, there’s Penelope Cruz, who many critics have championed, but whose exclusion from the BAFTA longlist is not a good sign. If she makes it in, expect a lot of excitement from film twitter.
Supporting Actor
My Predictions:
Kodi Smit-McPhee—The Power of the Dog
Troy Kotsur—CODA
Jamie Dornan—Belfast
Ciaran Hinds—Belfast
Bradley Cooper—Licorice Pizza
Potential Upsets:
Jared Leto—House of Gucci
Longshots:
Jason Isaacs—Mass
Mike Faist—West Side Story
Ben Affleck—The Tender Bar
This is easily the most uncertain of the acting categories. Compared to, say, Leading Actress where there are clear frontrunners for the 5 slots, there are only two actors who I think are completely safe bets for the Oscars. That’s Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog and Troy Kotsur for CODA (and I must say, it’s refreshing to see some lesser-known names leading the pack). There has been a lot of buzz for two of the supporting actors from Belfast, Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds, but both were snubbed at the SAG Awards (possibly because they canceled each other out). I don’t know if both of them can actually earn Oscar nominations, but I think at least one definitely will, and I don't know which one it will be. Hinds does endearing work and, I think, is more memorable, but Dornan plays a more crucial role to the story, and if only one gets a spot, it’s tough to know which way the Academy will go. That leaves one more spot, which I think will go to Bradley Cooper for Licorice Pizza. It’s a small role, which doesn’t show up until late in the movie, but it is a memorable performance and the SAG Awards demonstrated that he’s very much in the running. Plus, with Nightmare Alley, he's having a good year which the Academy likes to recognize.
The actors who took the place of the Belfast boys at the SAG Awards are Jared Leto for House of Gucci and Ben Affleck for The Tender Bar. Every year, the SAG has a few nominations that come out of nowhere, and this year one of those was Affleck. I think his recognition here was a fluke, as no one seems to care about The Tender Bar. Leto is, unfortunately for us all, more of a contender. His cartoonish performance has been much maligned by critics, and his obnoxious behavior in general has been much maligned by anyone paying attention. And yet, here we are, and it’s impossible to deny that Leto is a contender here, partly because there’s not really anyone else in the running. Some strong performances with early buzz (like Mike Faist in West Side Story and Jason Isaacs in Mass) have sort of fizzled out of the conversation. In a best case scenario, the lack of competition in this category means we get a genuine surprise here. In a worst case scenario then, yeah. It’s gonna be Leto.
Supporting Actress
My Predictions:
Kirsten Dunst—Power of the Dog
Ariana DeBose—West Side Story
Caitriona Balfe—Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis—King Richard
Ruth Negga—Passing
Potential Upsets:
Rita Moreno—West Side Story
Jessie Buckley—The Lost Daughter
Ann Dowd—Mass
Kathryn Hunter—The Tragedy of Macbeth
Cate Blanchett—Nightmare Alley
For a while now, there were four names getting all of the attention in this category: Ariana DeBose, Kirsten Dunst, Caitriona Balfe, and Aunjanue Ellis. Of these four, all except Ellis earned a SAG nomination, which all but cements their place in the Oscars lineup. Ellis was surprisingly snubbed by SAG, but she’s done well enough everywhere else that I think she’s still a safe bet, and might still win. So, once again, we’re left with just one open final spot.
I’m hopeful that this will go to Ruth Negga for Passing. Her work in this is extraordinary. I don’t quite understand why this film hasn’t gotten more attention, and a nod for Negga would at least be something. The SAG Award brought her back into the conversation, and hopefully she can hold on until the Oscars. Cate Blanchett got a surprise SAG nod for Nightmare Alley, and there’s a chance she can repeat with the Academy, but it’s more likely a fluke. DeBose has been the one earning all the attention for West Side Story, but it’s possible she’ll be joined by her co-star Rita Moreno (who famously originated the role DeBose now plays). We might even see Jessie Buckley earn her first nomination for The Lost Daughter if the film has industry support. Lastly, I’ve included two longshots who had early buzz which has since faded, but which I would love to see recognized. The film Mass would have been a wonderful addition to this year’s Oscars, but the fact that SAG didn’t recognize it in any category really hurts its chances, as that would have been where it should have had the strongest support. Still, if it has any chance at a nomination at all, it’s Ann Dowd. Lastly, I wish I could say that Kathryn Hunter had any chance at all for her stellar work in The Tragedy of Macbeth. It’s extraordinary work, and I think if the film as a whole was getting more attention she’d be a shoo-in, but like with Dowd, she needed a SAG nod to keep her in the conversation.
Adapted Screenplay
My Predictions:
The Power of the Dog
Dune
West Side Story
The Lost Daughter
CODA
Potential Upsets: Nightmare Alley
Tick, tick…Boom!
Drive My Car
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Longshots:
Passing
Zola
As will become increasingly clear as you read this analysis, the best place to look if you’re trying to predict the Oscars is the corresponding guild awards for that category. The Writers Guild of America Awards can be a useful resource, but only if you know how to interpret the results. The five nominees in this category at the WGAs (CODA, Dune, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, and tick, tick…BOOM!) all have a shot at the Oscars and it would be easy to simply say that they’re the picks. But there’s a wrinkle in this viewpoint: any screenplay not written by a member of the WGA is automatically ineligible for the awards, meaning that every year there are a few major Oscar contender that literally cannot score a WGA nomination. Quentin Tarantino famously hates the WGA and therefore is a notable omission every year he releases a film. This year, there were quite a lot of adapted screenplays that were ineligible, including The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Passing, Zola, and Drive My Car among others. These are some serious contenders who could completely alter the makeup of the nominees compared to the WGAs. The Power of the Dog and The Lost Daughter in particular are frontrunners here. Drive My Car is also a possibility, but I already made a bold prediction by thinking it will get a Best Director nomination, so I’m going to relegate it to the upsets category for now. Passing and Zola would be really fun picks, but are unlikely. There’s also some buzz for The Tragedy of Macbeth, which was seen as a major contender and still shouldn’t be counted out. However, it WAS eligible for the WGAs, so its exclusion there isn’t a good sign. Given the crowded field, I see it getting edged out at the Oscars as well.
Original Screenplay
My Predictions:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Being the Ricardos
King Richard
Potential Upsets:
The French Dispatch
Parallel Mothers
A Hero
The Worst Person in the World
Longshot:
Mass
The five films that the WGAs recognized were Being the Ricardos, Don’t Look Up, The French Dispatch, King Richard, and Licorice Pizza. At least one of these screenplays will inevitably not earn an Oscar nomination, as one spot has to be reserved for Belfast (which, of course, was not eligible for the WGAs). Don’t Look Up is a very likely nominee and should be safe holding its spot. Some Oscar prognosticators think Licorice Pizza will be this year’s biggest Oscars disappointment, but I think it’s destined to get a screenplay nomination even if it's snubbed everywhere else. The writer’s branch loves Paul Thomas Anderson, and has previously recognized his films without as much Oscar buzz, like Inherent Vice. Aarok Sorkin is enough of a name that Being the Ricardos probably has an edge. That leaves King Richard and The French Dispatch as the WGA nominees most likely to miss out with the Academy. Of the two, The French Dispatch is the flashier screenplay, and would mark Wes Anderson’s fourth nomination in this category. But the film has been completely left out of the major Oscars conversation, and that gives the far more formulaic King Richard an edge here.
Still, we can’t count out The French Dispatch, as this branch seems to really love Wes Anderson. Nor should we count out some of the screenplays ineligible at the WGAs. Fran Kranz’s Mass would be a wonderful surprise. And there are three international screenplays which might sneak their way in. Best International Film contenders A Hero and The Worst Person in the World might be able to translate their warm reception into recognition here. And while Pedro Almodovar’s Parallel Mothers wasn’t submitted for the International Film category, he’s an Academy favorite on his own, and his screenplay has been picking up more and more buzz recently.
Animated Feature
My Predictions:
Encanto
Luca
Flee
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Belle
Potential Upsets:
Raya and the Last Dragon
Sing 2
As long as they’re decent (and sometimes even if they’re not), the biggest releases from Disney and Pixar will always be in contention here, which means that Encanto and Luca are definitely going to be recognized here. I also think that Flee, a powerful Danish film which is also in the running for Best International Film and Best Documentary is a no-brainer here (and if it manages to score nominations in all three categories, it would be the first film ever to do so). That leaves two spots, and of all the submitted films, only four have a real shot at claiming them. My personal favorite animated film of the year, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, isn’t seen as a frontrunner, but it being the only Netflix film in the running here is a huge advantage. Last year, Netflix managed to have at least one film represented in every single Oscars category, and that implies they might be campaigning for The Mitchells vs the Machines more than expected. Japanese filmmaker Mamoru Hosoda was nominated a few years ago for his film Mirai, and is back in the running here with Belle. It might be too small-potatoes to compete with the larger studios behind the other entries, but it’s inventive and ambitious and shouldn’t be counted out. I feel skeptical leaving Raya and the Last Dragon out of my picks, and I do think it has a good shot to overtake one of my picks (particularly Belle) but ultimately I had to leave it out. Compared to Encanto, it’s the “other” Disney film in the running, and its release nearly a year ago means it’s not going to have support the way some of these other nominees do. Lastly, there’s Sing 2. If quality means anything then this awful film won’t be nominated but…this is the Oscars so anything is possible. Some Oscar voters are so dismissive of animation that they notoriously just let their kids pick the winner. But hopefully the nominating committee has more credibility than the Academy as a whole.
International Film
My Predictions:
Drive My Car (Japan)
A Hero (Iran)
Flee (Denmark)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Potential Upsets:
Compartment No. 6 (Finland)
I’m Your Man (Germany)
The Good Boss (Spain)
Great Freedom (Austria)
Hive (Kosovo)
Longshots:
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)
Plaza Catedral (Panama)
Playground (Belgium)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
Lamb (Iceland)
This is always one of my favorite categories to think about, as it’s one of the most enigmatic. There are always some frontrunners, but many of the films from the shortlist haven’t even been released in the United States yet, so it’s tough to know for sure if there are some hidden gems that will grab the Academy’s attention. For now, I’m just going to predict the five buzziest titles: all of my predictions have garnered considerable attention and any of them being excluded will be seen as an upset. Not much more to say here—there just happen to be exactly five films with a lot more eyes on them.
All of my “Potential Upsets” are ones I’ve heard good things about, but which simply haven’t made as big of a splash on the festival circuit. As for the longshots, the submissions from Panama, Belgium, and Bhutan are the least-discussed of the titles, so I’ve placed them here only because I don’t have much to go on (but am rooting for Panama and Bhutan, as this would be the first nomination for either country!) I’ve seen a lot of fellow prognosticators single out Prayers for the Stolen, Mexico’s entry, as a potential nominee, but I doubt it. It’s a good film, but I feel like it might be too depressing and slow-moving to actually secure a nomination. That leaves Lamb, Iceland’s submission. I’ve seen it and really liked it, but it is WAY too weird for the Oscars. It’s the only one of the fifteen shortlisted films that I feel like I can comfortable say has no shot, as sad as that may be.
Documentary Feature
My Predictions:
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Flee
The Rescue
The Velvet Underground
Attica
Potential Upsets:
Ascension
In the Same Breath
Maybe?:
Faya Dayi
President
Simple as Water
Writing with Fire
The First Wave
The Longshots:
Julia
Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry
Procession
This is another tricky category to predict, as documentaries don’t tend to receive the same amount of coverage as scripted films, and there’s not other awards ceremonies that tend to give a strong indication of where the Academy might lean. Still, there are some frontrunners that have emerged. The Danish film Flee is an interesting one—as I’ve already mentioned, it could be the first film to ever land nominations for Animated Film, International Film, and Documentary. This hat trick will be difficult to pull off, but I could see it happening. There are also two concert films with a lot of buzz, The Velvet Underground and Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised), the latter of which is probably the leading contender to actually win the award. Now, we have to look at which films have done best at various Critic’s Choice Awards, and on the festival circuit. Cave-diving thriller The Rescue has been a constant presence here, and might just be in contention to win outright. The final slot, to me at least, feels like it’s between Attica, Ascension, and In the Same Breath based on critical and audience reactions, but again, I really can’t say for sure.
There are only three films whose inclusion would actually surprise me. Despite her probably winning Best Original Song this year, I don’t think the Academy’s demographic cares enough about Billie Eilish to honor the documentary about her. Crowd-pleasing profiles of famous people have been performing increasingly poorly (hence recent snubs of documentaries about Roger Ebert and Fred Rogers), which means that I’ve placed Julia (a documentary about Julia Child) towards the bottom of the shortlist. And, sadly, I think there’s no way that Procession is getting a nomination. Procession—a film which allows survivors of sexual assault from within the Catholic Church to tell their story through filmmaking techniques— is the most innovative and intriguing documentary I’ve seen this year, but unfortunately, the Academy has consistently ignored the “weirder” films on the shortlist, and this just doesn’t have the feel of an Oscar contender. I’d love to be wrong, but this film which has done well at other ceremonies seems like the least likely nominee of the 15 shortlisted titles, just on instinct.
Editing
My Predictions:
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Potential Upsets:
tick, tick…BOOM!
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
No Time to Die
The editing Oscar is one of the most crucial ones when it comes to Oscars prognosticating, as it tends to overlap with Best Picture more than any other award (including Best Director). The nominees for this category tend to be composed exclusively of Best Picture contenders and occasionally action films. This year, the only action film I really see having a chance is No Time to Die, but I think we mostly can look at the Best Picture conversation to determine who will be present. But which ones will it be? Dune is once again a good bet, as are the Best Picture frontrunners The Power of the Dog and Belfast. I begrudgingly have to concede that Don’t Look Up is likely in here—the terrible editing in Adam McKay films has never stopped them from being recognized before. That leaves one spot with, as I see it, four genuine contenders. I would have thought West Side Story was a shoo-in here, and it might make it, but it getting snubbed at the film editors guild awards (“The Eddies”) hurt its chances. I also think that Eddie nominee Licorice Pizza might be too pared down for the Oscar branch to understand the strong editing at play. There’s a good chance that tick, tick…BOOM! will steal the musical spot West Side Story has left open, but I’m going to go ahead and predict that King Richard will make it in on the strength of its Best Picture chances alone.
Cinematography
My Predictions:
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Nightmare Alley
Belfast
Potential Upsets:
West Side Story
The Green Knight
The French Dispatch
As I’ve said before and will say again, Dune is going to be all over the technical nominations, and is guaranteed another nomination here. Part of the love for The Power of the Dog is due to the lush cinematography of Ari Wegner—who, when she earns her deserved nomination, will be only the second woman ever nominated in this category. This is the only category that The Tragedy of Macbeth is guaranteed to be nominated in, and might even win. These three are all near-certain nominations.
For a long time, West Side Story was expected to be here as well. It’s a beautifully shot film, and cinematographer Janusz Kaminski is an Academy favorite. But he was surprisingly snubbed by the American Society of Cinematographers. And while he still could show up here, that exclusion has severely hurt his chances. Instead, I think the Oscars will align with the ASC Awards perfectly, with Nightmare Alley and Belfast joining the three frontrunners. Of these two, Nightmare Alley is a great choice, as the cinematography is a huge part of this film. It’s a bit stranger that Belfast is in the running—I’m a huge fan of black and white photography in contemporary film, but the look of this film is honestly fairly unimpressive. Why is this being considered and not, say, Passing? Still, it has done reliably well in this category all awards season long, and the ASC nod makes it feel like a solid choice to predict here.
There are some potential upsets in the form of The Green Knight and The French Dispatch. This is honestly based on “instinct” alone. In another year, any Wes Anderson film would be seen as a shoo-in here, and I’m a bit surprised The French Dispatch hasn’t done better, but it simply hasn’t been picking up the accolades needed to make a case for it scoring an Oscar nomination. The same can be said for The Green Knight, a visually impressive film which unfortunately hasn’t been given much of an awards campaign by A24. With a different distributor, it might have been more in the conversation for the technical awards.
Production Design
My Predictions:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
The Power of the Dog
The French Dispatch
Potential Upsets:
Licorice Pizza
West Side Story
Longshots:
Cruella
The Green Knight
Once again, one nomination is basically reserved for Dune. Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and The French Dispatch all earned nominations at the Art Directors Guild Awards for a Period Film, and I think will repeat here. Their fellow nominees at the ADGs were West Side Story and (somewhat surprisingly) Licorice Pizza, and they both might repeat at the Oscars, but face some close competition. The ADGs snubbed The Power of the Dog, but the Oscars do frequently depart, and I think the Best Picture frontrunner shouldn’t be counted out here. Looking at the other ADG nominations, the only ones I could see pulling an upset would be Cruella or The Green Knight, but I’m not too optimistic given how crowded the field already is.
Visual Effects
Frontrunners:
Dune
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
No Time to Die
Potential Upset:
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Longshots:
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Free Guy
Eternals
Black Widow
For a few years, to get an Oscar nomination in this category, you basically had to first be nominated at the Visual Effects Society Awards. That unofficial rule was turned on its head last year when only 2 out of the 5 nominees overlapped—a strange occurrence in an admittedly strange awards season. To make things easier, I think we can look at last year as an anomaly, and I do think that the VESA’s are still a reliable indicator. The six nominees for Outstanding Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature were Dune, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Matrix Resurrections, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, and Spider-Man: No Way Home. All are credible contenders, and any arrangement of these five would be a plausible list of nominees. But if just one of these movies is going to be dropped, my guess is it will be one of the Marvel films. While I think a lot of the groaning online about how awards seasons should recognize Marvel films more is rather overblown and silly, I do think it’s a fair point to say that the Oscars tends to not recognize Marvel films in the technical categories you’d expect. Despite the visual effects on display, there has never been a Visual Effects lineup with more than one Marvel film nominated (which is why other effects-heavy Marvel films like Eternals and Black Widow seem like they’re not even a part of the conversation). Of the two Marvel films, Spider-Man: No Way Home is the buzzier of the two, and has the more significant Oscars campaign, but the visual effects in Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings are a bit showier and honestly a bit more original. I think it has the advantage here.
Costume Design
My Predictions:
Dune
Cruella
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
Cyrano
Potential Upsets:
West Side Story
The Green Knight
Coming 2 America
I’ll continue my trend of never betting against Dune, and it definitely deserves a spot here. I think we also need to consider Cruella, from Oscar perennial Jenny Beavan, an absolute favorite here, considering the film’s emphasis on clothing. The next three spots are a little less certain, but the Academy tends to prefer period films, and that makes House of Gucci and Nightmare Alley strong contenders.
That leaves one spot left and quite a few films that might nab it. At the Costume Designers Guild Awards, West Side Story and Cyrano joined Cruella, House of Gucci, and Nightmare Alley in the Excellence in Period Film category and I think either are likely to take that final Oscars spot. The costumes in West Side Story were excellent, and this would mark the first Oscar nomination for Broadway veteran Paul Tazewell. But the Costume Design branch of the Oscars prefers repeat names, so I’m giving a slight edge to Cyrano, which has previous winner and frequent nominee Jacqueline Durran on the costume team (not to mention costumes that are easier to notice for those with less of an inclination towards costume design).
This doesn’t mean there can’t be upsets. Coming 2 America isn’t exactly the most buzzed about film this awards season, but costume designer Ruth E. Carter is a titan of the industry, and when the film made it onto the Makeup and Hairstyling shortlist, it showed that this mostly forgettable sequel still had some staying power. This is also the only category that I think The Green Knight genuinely has a chance in, and its nod at the CDGAs for Excellence in Sci/Fi Fantasy has kept it in the conversation.
Makeup and Hairstyling
My Predictions:
Dune
Cruella
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Cyrano
Potential Upsets:
The Suicide Squad
Coming 2 America
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
No Time to Die
Ten films made it onto the shortlist category, meaning five are in and five will be out. What’s my motto this year? Don’t bet against Dune! It’s in. So is House of Gucci for their tireless work in making Jared Leto look nothing like Paolo Gucci. Cruella is the exact type of bold and noticeable work recognized here, so it is likely in. And when you have a biopic about someone known for their makeup, you better expect that film to land a makeup Oscar nomination. The Eyes of Tammy Faye is a good bet here. But in all honesty, it's tough to know what to expect, as Makeup & Hairstyling is one of the biggest wildcard categories out there. That means that films like The Suicide Squad or Coming 2 America have a distinct chance here. But ultimately, I’m going to go with Cyrano for the final spot. The Academy loves period films and there are some choice wigs in Cyrano I feel like they might find irresistible.
Sound
My Predictions:
Dune
No Time to Die
West Side Story
A Quiet Place Part II
The Matrix Resurrections
Potential Upsets:
Tick, tick…BOOM!
The Power of the Dog
Last Night in Soho
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Belfast
Another category, another shortlist of 10 films. Just last year, the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing categories were merged, and with just one year of precedent to go by, it’s tough to know how that will affect the Academy’s approach to the category. Looking at the shortlist, we have a lot of the types of movies that tend to be recognized here: Best Picture contenders, action films, and musicals/films where sound and music is at the forefront. Obviously, like with almost every category, I think Dune is in. But I think this is an impressive enough field that its colleagues in the Best Picture category, The Power of the Dog and Belfast, will be left out (although I’m rooting for The Power of the Dog, where the use of sound was honestly masterful). Of the action movies, I don’t see Spider-Man: No Way Home making it, as Marvel films don’t tend to get recognized in this category, but I do see The Matrix Resurrections and No Time to Die making the cut. The premise of A Quiet Place Part II places sound right at the forefront, and I could see it scoring a nomination just as its predecessor did. Last Night in Soho might make it in, but the lukewarm reception to the film as a whole might hurt its chances, and I think that it's noticeable that it has been left off all other shortlists. This leaves one spot and two musicals left to claim it. Either could (and, honestly, both could, especially if The Matrix Resurrections fails to make the cut) but between West Side Story and tick, tick…BOOM!, I’m giving the edge to West Side Story each time.
Original Score
My Predictions:
Dune
Power of the Dog
King Richard
Parallel Mothers
The French Dispatch
Potential Upsets:
Candyman
The Harder They Fall
Encanto
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Spencer
Longshots:
Don’t Look Up
The Green Knight
No Time to Die
Being the Ricardos
The Last Duel
The Academy released a shortlist, which definitely helps narrow down where we want to look, but with 15 films still in the running, this is still a difficult category to predict. The frontrunners, as in so many categories, are currently Dune and The Power of the Dog. After that, it’s a lot trickier. So I found it easier to whittle down what WON’T be considered.
We have a few films in consideration who don’t have much or any Best Picture buzz. Of those, the scores for Being the Ricardos, The Last Duel, and No Time to Die don’t strike me as particularly strong enough to overcome the lower profile of the movies. The Green Knight has a really interesting and compelling score, but the Academy prefers their nominees to be more lyrical, and so I sadly think it’s a longshot here. For the same reason, I’m less inclined to predict The Tragedy of Macbeth, which I know some see as a contender here. I just think it’s too experimental for the more traditional Academy—and despite being one of the most prolific composers in the film industry, Macbeth’s composer Carter Burwell is often ignored by the Academy. Jonny Greenwood’s score for Spencer is quite wonderful, but the film’s lack of buzz outside of Best Actress is going to hurt it, and I think voters are more likely to reward his work for The Power of the Dog as opposed to recognizing him twice. Nicholas Britell has had two nominations in the past, and is a bit of an industry favorite for his stellar work on the TV show Succession, but I’m going to say his work for Don’t Look Up doesn’t make it here. My personal bias against the film might be influencing this, but I honestly don’t remember a single note of the score from watching the movie.
Encanto, The Harder They Fall, and Candyman are the wildcards. All three are great scores, but I don’t know how the Academy will view them. With Encanto especially, it’s tough to gauge whether the fact that the film is a musical will help or hurt. I can see one of these movies making the roster easily, but I don’t know which of the three it would be, so for now, I’m going to reluctantly leave them off of my prediction. That leaves The French Dispatch, King Richard, and Parallel Mothers as my final three predictions, and I’m very happy with that. Kris Bowers’ score for King Richard is probably the best element of the film, the score for Parallel Mothers is gorgeous and lush, and The score for The French Dispatch comes from Academy favorite Alexandre Desplat. I’m not confident about any of the three, but I think the reasoning for them being there makes sense.
Original Song
My Predictions:
“No Time To Die” No Time to Die
“Dos Oruguitas” Encanto
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)" Respect
“So May We Start?” Annette
“Just Look Up” Don’t Look Up
Potential Upsets:
“Right Where I Belong” Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road
“Your Song Saved My Life” Sing 2
“Guns Go Bang” The Harder They Fall
“Somehow You Do” Four Good Days
“Down To Joy” Belfast
“Be Alive” King Richard
Longshots:
“Beyond The Shore” CODA
“Dream Girl” Cinderella
“Automatic Woman” Bruised
“The Anonymous Ones” Dear Evan Hansen
Disney notoriously messed up with this category—they chose to submit only one song for Encanto to avoid splitting votes between it and another song. They went with the lovely tearjerker “Dos Oruguitas,” but as submissions were due before the film’s release, they had no way of knowing that the runaway hit would be “We Don’t Talk About Bruno.” If that song had been in contention, it would have been the runaway favorite at this point. As that didn’t happen, they’ll have to settle for just a nomination, and Billie Eilish’s Bond ballad “No Time to Die” holds onto the top spot.
Rounding out the favorites in contention, we have “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home),” which is likely to make it on Jennifer Hudson’s starpower alone. I’m holding out hope for “So May We Start” from Annette—the song was better received than the film as a whole and should have a passionate support base from the more artsy voters in the Academy. The song “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up is an enigma here: it’s essentially a parody of the songs that typically win this award, and it could either inspire or alienate voters. I hardly think it deserves a nomination but I’m bracing myself for Don’t Look Up to do inexplicably well with nominations, and I have a dreadful gut feeling that it's going to make the cut.
That doesn’t leave room on my list for “Right Where I Belong,” from the Brian Wilson documentary Long Promised Road. It’s probably foolish for me to leave this one out, but the low profile of that movie as a whole makes it difficult for me to predict it in such a crowded field. There’s also some support for “Your Song Saved My Life” from Sing 2, but I don’t see this happening. I’m hoping that the Academy has the good sense to stay away from anything Sing 2 related, and U2 no longer has the heavyweight drawing power it might have had a few years ago. It would be great if there was some love for “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall, just because it would give some variety to this lineup. “Down To Joy” and “Be Alive” might coast to nominations based on support for their respective films, and while I don’t think anyone has ever seen the film Four Good Days, the song “Somehow You Do” is written by perennial Oscar bridesmaid Dianne Warren. No one is really paying attention to it, but the Oscars might not pass up another chance to nominate her and then give someone else the win.
Animated Short
My Predictions:
Robin Robin
Us Again
The Windshield Wiper
Namoo
Navozande, The Musician
Possible Upsets:
Bestia
Souvenir Souvenir
Affairs of the Art
Only a Child
Flowing Home
Step into the River
Boxballet
Mum Is Pouring Rain
Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice
Longshot:
Bad Seeds
The shorts categories are difficult to predict, as not all of these films are available for the public to view. I’ve tried to watch the ones available, and to take into account whether there’s any studio effort behind them, as well as how they’ve done on the festival circuit. The safest bets for a nomination are Robin Robin and Us Again, as they have the largest studio backing (Netflix and Disney, respectively). The Windshield Wiper is another contender—it’s the first major solo effort from rising animation star Alberto Mielgo (who worked on Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse and the series Love, Death & Robots). From here, it’s a bit more of a gamble, but I’ve gone with Namoo (which I haven’t been able to see) and Navozande, The Musician (which I have), as they both have gorgeous animation and seem to be the types of stories that tend to garner Academy support. That’s not a lot to go on but, hey, that’s what I love about the shorts! They’re unpredictable!
The only short film that would genuinely surprise me if it’s included is Bad Seeds. It’s honestly my favorite animated short I’ve seen this year, but it’s really bizarre, and I worry it’s too weird for the Academy. I’d be thrilled if I’m wrong, but don't really see it happening in this case.
Live Action Short
My Predictions:
Les Grandes Claques
The Long Goodbye
The Criminals
The Dress
When the Sun Sets
Potential Upsets:
Tala’vision
Frimas
On My Mind
Distances
Under the Heavens
Please Hold
Stenofonen
Censor of Dreams
Ala Kachuu—Take and Run
You’re Dead Helen
Even amongst the short film categories, the Live Action category is the toughest to predict. There are more live action short films released each year than animated or documentary, which means that it’s rare that films can generate buzz in the same way. If you observe film festivals, you start to see some docs and animated shorts start to show up a lot. That just doesn’t happen with live action shorts, so at this stage, no consensus pick has emerged. Of the 15 shortlisted films, Les Grandes Claques does appear to be a favorite, and has picked up, I believe, more awards than any other shortlisted film up until this point. I also think the star power of lead actor and producer Riz Ahmed might give an advantage to The Long Goodbye. So those two are at the top of my list, with the rest of my placings just kind of coming down to instinct based on the trailers and the little bit of info I could sort together. Not much more to it than that. But, honestly, this lack of thinking sometimes leads to a more reliable outcome than in the categories I've spent longer thinking about!
Documentary Short Subject
My Predictions:
A Broken House
The Facility
Day of Rage
Audible
The Queen of Basketball
Potential Upsets:
Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis
Lead Me Home
Three Songs for Benazir
Terror Contagion
Don’t Count Out:
Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker
Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day”
Aguilas
Takeover
When We Were Bullies
Sophie & the Baron
There are two platforms which reliably supply nominees in this category: Netflix and the New York Times. Netflix has had at least one nominee in this category for the past five years, and is easily going to continue that trend this year. It has a record four films on the shortlist (Audible, Lead Me Home, Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis, and Three Songs for Benazir). My favorite of these was Lead Me Home, but I think that based solely on subject matter, Audible and Camp Confidential may have a better shot. The New York Times, meanwhile, has Day of Rage, Takeover, and The Queen of Basketball in contention. Of these, the one I easily see coasting into a nomination is Day of Rage—a powerful and detailed breakdown of what exactly happened during the January 6th insurrection. The Queen of Basketball seems on the surface like it might not be heavy-hitting enough to compete with some of the more powerful films on the shortlist, but there is usually at least one nominee who’s slightly more uplifting—plus Shaquille O’Neal is a producer, and the director, Ben Proudfoot, was nominated in this category last year. So the team behind the movie definitely improves its chances. Both Aguilas and A Broken House come courtesy of The New Yorker, whose influence in this category is growing steadily. A Broken House is my favorite of the shortlisted shorts I’ve gotten a chance to see, and I hope the Academy agrees. Lastly, there’s The Facility from the independent studio Field of Vision. While that name might not be as well known as, say, Netflix or The New York Times, they’re well-known in the world of documentaries, and the story that The Facility tells is timely and urgent. I think it would be a strong pick here. Also, Field of Vision co-founder Laura Poitras (probably best known for directing Citizenfour) is the director of shortlisted doc Terror Contagion, which initially screened as part of the anthology film The Year of the Everlasting Storm. It could also show up, but I think between the two COVID-related docs attached to Poitras, The Facility has an edge.
So those are my predictions in every single category. Only a few days remain before we find out if I'm correct, or way off base. Who will be nominated? Who should be? Is anyone still reading this far down? If I had included pictures, would more people have made it this far? Have you looked up the animated short film Bad Seeds yet (it's on YouTube!)? We'll see if any of these questions are answered on January 8th.
