Give Them a Chance! 10 Deserving Shows The Emmys Will Probably Ignore

Anyone who knows me knows that I am obsessed with the awards shows. It's no coincidence that this blog started at the beginning of Oscar season. And, as we grow closer to the announcement of Emmy nominations (on July 10th) I'm very excited, and filled with knowledge about which shows have buzz and which shows don't. Who are the frontrunners, who are the long shots?! It's all very exciting, and I've already made my predictions for the nominees in the drama and comedy categories.

As someone who constantly tries to predict awards show results, I truly find the odds-making side of it all fascinating. But, I always make it clear that the analysis of who WILL get a nomination has nothing to do with quality. When I say, for example, that The Big Bang Theory is a lock in the Best Comedy category, that doesn't mean I like The Big Bang Theory (I do not, but that's a blog post for another time). As with any awards show, the Emmys should never be viewed as an accurate litmus test for what really is the best that television has to offer. Consider that Breaking Bad didn't win best drama series until last year. Consider that The Wire-- generally considered one of the greatest series ever made-- never received an Emmy. Further consider that Two and a Half Men has nine Emmys. Nine. Nine.

Charlie Sheen was nominated for his work on Two and a Half Men four times. Four. Four.

Needless to say, the Emmys are subjective. While some outstanding shows will always be given attention, not every show is going to be a Homeland or a Veep. Some outstanding shows are always going to fall through the cracks, and they Emmy nominees are never going to be perfectly in line with the nominees at the annual "Things Miles Purinton Likes Awards."

I got this award especially for The Big Bang Theory.

So, I've decided to discuss some of the shows that the Emmys shouldn't, but will most likely ignore when nominees are announced. Here, in no particular order, here are the ten shows which deserve Emmys consideration...but probably won't get it. And, I'll give you a hint, The Big Bang Theory is not on this list.

What's that? I should stop picking on The Big Bang Theory? Is it frustrating that I'm making the same mean-spirited joke over and over again? YEAH. THAT WOULD BE ANNOYING. AND THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT THE BIG BANG THEORY HAS DONE FOR SEVERAL SEASONS NOW.

Review

Outside of The Daily Show and The Colbert Report, Comedy Central has never been much for Emmys attention, and their sitcoms typically don't come into play at all. But, the network has proven to have some surprisingly innovative programming in the past few years. Of its new comedies, Broad City is the one most likely to find some Emmys love, after it received nominations at the Critics Choice Awards. This is unlikely-- so unlikely that I didn't even mention the show in my Emmys predictions-- but if Comedy Central gets ANY consideration for its scripted programming this year, it will be for that series. Which means no room is left over for it's new series Review-- possibly the most underrated gem of the year. In the show, Andy Daly-- a comedian who has guest starred in pretty much everything and finally gets a leading role here-- plays Forrest MacNeil, a reviewer who embarks on a great experiment to review life experiences (as opposed to things like art or food). He chooses which life experiences to review based on viewer queries and typically tackles three per episode. It sounds like a fun and quirky premise-- perfect to have each episode remain unconnected and generally fun. But..as the show goes on, a sense of continuity creeps in and, as an audience, we see an overarching plot. The gimmick of the show's premise is just that-- the show is not about the reviews at all, it's entirely about this main character, and an examination of how this tv show slowly ruins his life. It's deliciously black comedy at its best-- dark, awkward, and often just plain weird. It's not going to be everybody's cup of tea, but what it sets out to do, it does really well. Daly manages to be endearing in his portrayal of a hapless asshole, and gives what is certainly one of the most committed performances in the history of comedy.

Andy Daly, in a print ad for Review.

I really enjoy the show-- much more than I expected to. I would go so far as to say it is the most meticulously crafted season of comedy I've ever seen outside of Arrested Development (and fans of that show should DEFINITELY check out Review). The show is funny, yes, but it's also incredibly insightful and actually really heartbreaking. You become invested in these characters. The show has been renewed for a second season, and I couldn't be happier...but in some ways I almost wish it wasn't because the first season was such a perfect little gem and I don't want to risk the second season not being as good. That's how great this show is, for me. I simply cannot imagine a second season being as good as the first-- but given how much the first season surprised me, I can only imagine what the second one will do.

While it was one of my favorite shows of the year, it's too cerebral and unconventional to have ever been at play for best comedy series-- so I'm not even going to pretend like it has any chance in that category. But, there is one particular award that it unabashedly deserves: Best Writing. The show only submitted one episode for consideration in the writing category, and while the whole show is impeccably written, their selection-- the third episode, entitled "Pancakes, Divorce, Pancakes,"-- is absolutely the standout of the series. Seriously, even if my gushing has not swayed you to watch the whole series, you should watch this episode. It's like what Dante would have written if one of the levels of the Inferno was a sitcom about a man eating pancakes.

Actual quote from either Review or Purgatorio.

And-- slight spoiler here-- Review features the single most surprising character death that I have ever seen. Forget Game of Thrones, I actually had to rewind Review to make sure that what I saw had really happened. It's amazing. Best death in a comedy series since Denholm Reynholm.





Key and Peele

Speaking of Comedy Central, another standout of the network's recent programming is the sketch comedy series Key and Peele. Written by, starring, and named for its stars Keegan-Michael Key and Jordan Peele, the show has always been funny, well acted, and at times incredibly insightful. But, while the first two seasons were great, the third season which aired this past year was nothing short of incredible. Either Key and Peele finally found the show's true voice, or they were given more creative control by the network, or a combination of these things, but the show absolutely surpassed its already high standard. Not only was the show even funnier than before, but Key and Peele pushed the boundaries in a more adept way than any other series I've ever seen. I feel like in comedy, many comedians try to tackle difficult subjects, and frankly fall flat on their face. But what makes Key and Peele remarkable is that they do not mistake edginess for humor. They deal with what, for many, would be taboo subjects, ut they do a few things that a lot of risque comedian (cough cough Seth MacFarlane cough cough Daniel fucking Tosh cough cough) fail to do. For one thing, they are always informed-- they clearly have done their research and treat the subjects with the respect and weight they deserve. As Saturday Night Live, the undisputed top show int he sketch comedy world has come under fire in the past few seasons for what many perceive to be much weaker and less weighty sketches than what the show has aired in the past, Key and Peele has proven how sketch comedy can truly be an exciting and relevant medium. It's pretty standard for sketch comedy shows to be deemed "hit and miss," but I honestly cannot think of a single "miss" in this third season of Key and Peele.

Key and Peele satirize Les Miserables.

There are a few things that make Key and Peele stand out. For one thing, they always, always, always "punch down"-- meaning the punchline is at the expense of the bully rather than the victim. They have so many amazing skits, but the one that best demonstrates what I'm talking about is this skit which is inspired by, of all things, the shooting of Trayvon Martin. Were anyone else, and I mean ANYONE else to attempt to find comedy in this, I would run screaming, but Key and Peele make a genuinely funny and respectful skit. And I could share with you a seemingly endless number of good skits-- from the spot-on parodies, to the beautifully awkward, to the just plain funny-- but I highly recommend you watch the whole season. Some of their best skits are not released on their youtube channel.

So, what should it be nominated for, other than every single award ever? Definitely Outstanding Variety, Music, or Comedy Series. Despite its critical acclaim, clearly high level of quality, high production values, and two stars whose celebrity is thankfully growing more and more, it's unlikely that the show will be able to enter that field of nominees. Aside from SNL, no sketch comedy show has been nominated for this award since In Living Color back in 1990. The category prefers to nominate talk shows and awards shows, so it's hard to see Key & Peele breaking into this category. But...it actually does have a long shot chance. The third season has already garnered multiple awards-- including a Writer's Guild Award and a Peabody. Even if it doesn't get the Outstanding Variety Series nomination it deserves, it might just gain a nomination in one of the more minor categories. Sadly, it's even more unlikely that Key & Peele themselves will gain nominations. While sometimes the Saturday Night Live cast members manage to sneak into the Best Supporting categories, it would be miraculous if Key or Peele were to manage this feat, despite the fact that they pretty much hold the entire show on solely their shoulders. But, they're really incredible. Their performances are versatile-- unlike in most comedic duos, the pair alternates playing the straight man and a wide variety of numerous wacky characters, meaning both have the opportunity to give what are probably some of the most brilliant comedic performances you can find. Jordan Peele's performance in their downright strange Continental Breakfast sketch from the Halloween episode should, in my opinion, be more than enough to earn him a nomination.

ACTING!

Face Off

And now for something completely different-- let's talk about reality shows. The reality show categories are interesting. Added to the ceremony as the genre continued to grow more popular, at first, it was shockingly predictable. The Amazing Race won the Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Reality-Competition Program the first seven years of the category's existence before it finally lost to Top Chef. andt looked as if The Amazing Race's domination was over...until it then proceeded to win again for the next two years. But last year, it lost for the second time in the category's history-- this time to The Voice. So this is an interesting category to watch-- has The Amazing Race finally lost its "favorite" status, or will it regain it with another victory this year? It could really go either way. But even as the category becomes more interesting, the nominees remain astonishingly boring. This category has the least amount of diversity out of any category in Emmys history. The nominees for the past two years have been exactly the same, and in eleven years with fifty-five different slots for nominees, there have been only ten nominated shows total. Of those ten nominees, nine have been nominated multiple times (the only series to only be nominated once was Last Comic Standing in the category's second year of existence). Part of this is due to the longevity of so many of these programs-- The Apprentice is the only nominated show that is not still regularly on the air. The Apprentice is off the air, right? Please, lord, let that show be off the air.

No witty caption needed. This man is already a joke. BAZINGA!

Because of this predictability, it's incredibly tough for a show to break into the small group of nominees-- especially a show with a relatively small audience. But I have recently become a fan of the Syfy Channel's competition Face Off. For those who don't know, it follows the format of more well-known shows like Project Runway and Top Chef where a group of contestants with a certain occupation compete in challenges to see who is the best at that skill. But instead of fashion design or cooking, Face Off deals with movie makeup. And while Top Chef will always be one of my favorite shows ever, Face Off comes close to being my favorite show of this style. The competitors are all incredibly talented, the judges are likable, articulate, and knowledgeable, and the challenges are wonderfully creative (bring a Dr. Seuss character to life, create a demon based on an unusual phobia, etc.) But, to the show's biggest credit, it KEEPS THE ATTENTION ON THE TALENT. The contestants rarely have drama and rarely have conflict-- in fact they often go out of their way to help each other out. It's refreshing, and highlights what I like about these types of shows in the first place. On the heels of an especially strong season, it deserves not only a nomination, but a wider audience.

One of the incredible makeups from Face Off-- inspired by the fairy tale Peter Peter Pumpkin Eater

Archer

The television show Archer has been one of the most consistent animated shows on the air-- and one of the most consistently ignored. Much like the reality categories, this category has seen a lot of repeat nominees over the years, and so it's going to be tough for Archer to ever crack this category. But when one considers that The Simpsons has literally been nominated for this category every single year it has been eligible, one has to wonder why this deserving show can't gain a nomination. After all, it's a well-known fact that The Simpsons has declined drastically in quality over the years. Archer, on the other hand, has the fresh voice and edginess that made The Simpsons so popular when it was first on the air. Now, Archer has not been completely ignored by the Emmys. It has a single nomination-- for H. Jon Benjamin in the category of Outstanding Vocal Performance. But, after his one time nomination, he has yet to be nominated again, and as the show became more outrageous, it continuew to be left off of the Emmys' radar. There's nothing to suggest that trend won't hold true this year to, but if any season of the show deserves to put it in the runing, however, it's this one. Creator Adam Reed reportedly just got bored with the show's premise of having the characters work in a James Bond-esque secret agency, and decided to spend the entire season having the same exact characters deal with a literal ton of cocaine. In other words, the entire premise of the show changed for one solitary season. It was a massive risk, and it paid off-- and is certainly one of the strangest and most satisfying experiments a show has ever done. That risk-taking should absolutely be rewarded if the Emmys wishes to stay current.

Also, one of the characters randomly decided they wanted to become a country singer. It was a weird season.

The Americans

Fun fact: I have never seen The Americans. I'd like to, but...there's, like, a lot of television to watch and I don't have enough time to watch all of it. But, nonetheless, it so epitomizes the types of incredible shows that fall through the cracks at the Emmys that I HAD to include it. I have only heard incredible things about this show. Everyone has only heard incredible things about this show. It's supposed to be great. Last year, it garnered considerable Emmy buzz for its first season, and a lot of people saw it being a serious Emmy contender. It ended up garnering only two nominations-- one for guest star Margo Martindale, and one in the hotly contested category of Outstanding Main Theme Music. It was certainly a disappointing showing for a series which had its eyes set on multiple major awards. This year, it's being mentioned again as a possible contender-- but I'm going to risk my reputation as a blogger and say that The Americans will once again be shut out of the Emmys race. Not because it's not deserving-- from everything that I've heard it is-- but because it's really hard for a series to capture the attention of the Emmys if it didn't already have it. While there are a few exceptions (like Friday Night Lights, which didn't get major Emmys attention until its final season, when the Emmys rushed to honor the show seemingly to apologize for forgetting about it all those years beforee), most Emmy darlings receive nominations in the major categories in their very first season and then coast from there. For example, even though Breaking Bad didn't become an awards juggernaut until later in its run, Bryan Cranston was nominated for the show's very first season, meaning that Breaking Bad didn't have to fight to earn its place at the Emmys later in the show's run. Similarly, a one-time Emmy darling that suddenly loses its nomination can find it very difficult to regain it. A great example is the show Justified-- after a stellar second season, the show seemed to be in the Emmys' good graces. But what some saw to be an uneven third season meant that the following year, it didn't really get anything at the Emmys-- it's only major nomination was in the Guest Actor category (for Jeremy Davies-- who actually won the award that year). Then, the show's fourth season was acclaimed, but the huge drop in awards recognition between season 2 and season 3 meant that it now has significantly less buzz than before, and probably has lost its contender status forever. I predict that The Americans is, sadly, also going to be doomed to constantly being on the outskirts of the Emmys' attention. I call it the Fringe curse-- during every single year of that series' run, columnists insisted on pretending the show had a chance at Emmy recognition even though it failed to get any consideration every single year. And The Americans might have the same fate-- as long as it stays at the same level of quality, The Americans will always have slight Emmy buzz. But until its following increases significantly, I think it's doomed to always be on the sidelines.

Keri Russell and Matthew Rhys in a scene from The Americans maybe. Like I said, I've never seen the show. Is this what it's like?

Hannibal

This show is the reason there's a clause in the SAG-AFTRA contract that says you're not allowed to eat your castmates.

The drama categories have become pretty much exclusively a category for the cable channels. While networks like CBS, NBC, ABC, and FOX still do well in the comedy categories, their dramas have been losing out to HBO, Showtime, and AMC consistently for the past few years (I don't count Downton Abbey, as even though that's a network drama, it's on PBS...which just feels different, right?) The past two years, the general thought has been that the only network drama with a chance at breaking into the field of nominees is The Good Wife, and that hasn't been nominated for the past two years. This year, it has a chance to gain major awards consideration again after what pretty much everyone seems to agree was an exemplary season...but the fact remains that it's the only network drama anyone's really talking about. Which is a shame, as NBC's Hannibal remains the best drama on television that simply no one is watching. A stylish thriller, Bryan Fuller's series about the titular notorious cannibalistic killer is hauntingly beautiful to watch, and as emotionally draining as the very best that the cable channels have to offer. Ignored in its first season, the second season has really upped the ante and has become astonishingly fast-paced and brutal-- maybe this might make the Emmys take notice? It is one of the most visually striking dramas of recent memory, and certainly deserves mention in the technical categories at the very least. I'd also love to see the cast get mention. Last year, I thought that Hugh Dancy should have been nominated for his work as the profoundly sad Will Graham-- and he's still wonderful, but, this year, I'm putting my hopes behind Dr. Lecter himself-- played by Mads Mikkelsen. Mikkelsen portrays Hannibal as ruthless, intelligent, sly, and not without a dose of really bizarre humor. It's a performance that stays with you, and certainly carries more weight than, say, last year's winner Jeff Daniels in The Newsroom. A nomination for Mikkelsen is unlikely, but I can hope.

Actual line from the show, guys. Gore and puns-- who could ask for anything more?

I'd also really love a guest star nomination for Broadway veteran Raul Esparza, who brought new life to the boorish Dr. Chilton-- a rather one-dimensional character in his previous incarnations, who Esparza managed to make a formidable and fascinating presence.


 The Killing

I have already written on this blog about my love for The Killing, so please follow that link if you want to read my complete analysis on why this show is so good, and so unappreciated. The third season was well-received by critics but due to its release nearly a year ago, and the baffling stigma against the show, it's not likely for this show to make it into the Emmys' graces. But this show, and especially the superb cast should absolutely get recognition. Mireille Enos was previously nominated for her work as Sarah Linden, and she deserves the nomination again. Her co-star Joel Kinnaman is similarly deserving, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that somehow the impossible will happen and newcomer Bex Taylor-Klaus will gain a nomination for her performance as Bullet-- a new character introduced in the third season who will break your heart. But the most deserving actor this season-- and the only one who really has a (very slight) chance at getting one this year-- is Peter Sarsgaard, who does what I think is the best work of his career. Sarsgaard is known for playing creepy roles, and this role certainly has his signature creepiness-- but it is also incredibly heartfelt and devastating. Sarsgaard has started to get some notice for his work-- including a Critics Choice nomination-- but he's still a longshot at the Emmys. Still, I'm going to keep my fingers crossed.

Peter Sarsgaard talks to Mireille Enos in The Killing

 
In addition to the cast, I think that the show had some really powerful episodes which deserve some recognition. Showrunner Veena Sud absolutely deserves a nomination for her incredible writing for the episode "Six Minutes"-- an absolute stand-out that was my single favorite episode of television this year (yes, including Breaking Bad's "Ozymandias"-- as sad as I am to say that). And Silence of the Lambs director Jonathan Demme would, in a just world, be nominated for directing the episode "Reckoning." This season proved that, despite what everyone else says, The Killing is/was one of the best dramas out there, and it's a shame that it features little to no buzz going into the Emmy season.



Orphan Black

Last year, the greatest injustice that the Emmys committed was not nominating Orphan Black's star, Tatiana Maslany. Maslany is not-so-secretly the best performer on television right now and has won overwhelming critical acclaim and numerous accolades. And it's not hard to see why. For one thing, her role in the show is incredibly ambitious-- in the first season she portrayed a total of six different characters. But the fact that she plays different roles is not what makes her performance impressive-- what makes it impressive is just how well Maslany rises to this task. These characters not only have completely different accents, but they're all immediately recognizable in their physicality. There's one moment, for example, where one of Maslany's characters named Allison has to pretend to be another character named Sarah. Because Maslany plays both roles, it could have been incredibly confusing--
not only is there no physical difference between the two, but in this particular scene, the character is SPECIFICALLY ACTING LIKE ANOTHER ONE. Yet, because of how well Maslany has defined these characters, Allison is immediately recognizable, even when she is acting like Sarah. To those who haven't seen the show, this explanation might be confusing, but...just trust me. Maslany's amazing.

Even though Maslany was snubbed last year, it is actually possible that she will get a nomination this year-- her exclusion last year is generally seen as a mistake, and while she's certainly not a lock for a nomination, it's not beyond the realm of possibility. So, while she might be destined to be forever ignored by the Emmys, we might just see her break into the field this year. But...I think the show itself deserves some recognition too. All anyone talks about is Maslany, but the show has other merit as well. It's well-written, and has the potential to be one of the truly great science fiction series. And while Maslany's performance is definitely the standout for good reason, I must say that I am also impressed by her co-star Jordan Gavaris, who plays Sarah's half brother Felix, and it's a shame that his name is not mentioned along with Maslany when people discuss the superb acting in the show. Granted, he only plays one role, but he plays it very well.

Tatiana Maslany, Tatiana Maslany, and Tatiana Maslany in Orphan Black

Community

Community has always had a troubled relationship with the Emmys...meaning that it hasn't had a relationship with the Emmys at all. Even as The Big Bang Theory has infuriatingly become an Emmys shoo-in (are you impressed with my restraint in waiting so long to mention that show again?), the internet-beloved but little-watched series has always come up short during awards season despite its fans high hopes. In its history, the show has garnered only a single nomination-- in the Outstanding Writing category for the brilliant episode "Remedial Chaos Theory." It doesn't help that right after the show finally got that nomination and might have had a chance to pick up some awards momentum, it went through a disastrous fourth season due to the absence of showrunner Dan Harmon. Now that Harmon is back, the show is mostly back in its audience's good graces, but most would agree that this season is far from the show's best work. In other words, if it didn't get nominations for, say, season 2 or 3, then it really doesn't have a chance of getting one here. And while I don't think that this season has been its absolute strongest, the fact remains that Community is one of the most interesting and innovative shows on the air. And, while it has been picked up for a sixth season by yahoo.com, it's unlikely that Yahoo will fight to give the show any chance at all at the Emmys next year, so this really is the show's last chance. It features an incredible ensemble cast, many of whom would be deserving of nominations, and consistently takes risks which other nominated shows really do not do at all. As groundbreaking as it pretends to be, Emmy-darling Modern Family has gotten, frankly, really boring. And that's putting it lightly. I mean, how many lessons can Ed O'Neill's character learn about acceptance?

Jonathan Banks and Danny Pudi in the episode "Bondage and Beta Male Sexuality," one of the best episodes of the show's fifth season.

Parks and Recreation

To be fair, this show will most likely get SOME Emmy attention. Amy Poehler is a consistent shoo-in as a nominee, and maybe her Golden Globe award indicates that she might finally receive that well-deserved Emmy. The show was also nominated once for Best Comedy Series, and has been nominated for writing and, interestingly enough, has quite a few nominations for sound editing (so, when you watch the show, consider how well edited the sound is). So, considering that this show HAS gotten Emmys attention, how can I say that this show is ignored? Well, as I previously mentioned, it's incredibly difficult for a show to gain Emmys attention after it has lost that attention. Last year, the nomination for Amy Poehler was the only one the show received and so it is unlikely for the show to make the jump back into the Best Series category. And, unfortunately, while the show had a really fantastic season this year, it wasn't as strong as the season 4 story arc where Leslie Knope (Poehler) ran for City Council. If that season failed to get a nomination, it's, sadly, hard to imagine this season getting one. But this remains one of the best shows on the air. It deserves to once again join the ranks of the best comedy series, and-- much like with Community-- the ensemble supporting cast really needs recognition. Nick Offerman has created one of the most iconic breakout characters of television's golden age with his portrayal of Ron Swanson, Adam Scott is consistently incredible as Leslie's awkward and endearing foil. I was holding out hope that perhaps Rob Lowe might gain a nomination as a guest star this year, after his character left the show in the middle of the season. Unfortunately, Rob Lowe is a self-centered individual and submitted himself in the Best Leading Actor category, despite appearing in less than half the episodes of this season. So...yeah. No way he's getting that.

Rashida Jones and Amy Poehler as the very best of friends in Parks and Recreation

Anyway, those are my thoughts. What series do you think get overlooked by the Emmys all too often? What long-shot are you hoping will somehow earn a nomination? Let me know in the comments!

"HAHAHAHAHAHAHA NERDS ARE FUNNY! THEY'RE DOING THE VULCAN HAND SYMBOL! THEY ARE NERRRRRRRRRRRDS"-- director's commentary from the fifth season of The Big Bang Theory

2014 Emmys Predictions: The Comedy Nominees

Despite its status as one of the best television comedies of all time, many don't realize that Seinfeld has not been nominated for an Emmy since 1998.

Here are my predictions for the comedy nominations for the 2014 Primetime Emmy Awards. You can read my drama predictions here. As always, these are my predictions for who will be nominated, not necessarily who I hope will be.

Outstanding Comedy Series:

Because "nerds are dorky" jokes deserve to be rewarded year after year.

My Predictions: 
The Big Bang Theory
Girls
Louie
Modern Family
Orange is the New Black
Veep

Possibilities:

Brooklyn Nine Nine

Longshots:

Episodes
Parks and Recreation
Nurse Jackie

This category is is interesting, in that the race for nominations is not all that competitive, but the race for the award itself probably will be (more on that to come after nominations are announced). Modern Family has won this award four times in a row, and while that streak could end this year, it's still the most certain bet for a nomination. Then, we have  The Big Bang Theory, Girls, Louie, and Veep-- all of which were nominated last year, and which have not done anything to indicate they will lose that status.

Since the other nominee from last year-- 30 Rock-- is now off the air, that means that there is one spot up for grabs. This is all but a lock for Orange is the New Black. The Netflix series is, bafflingly, entered in the comedy categories instead of the drama ones. Actually, it's not that baffling. Given that Breaking Bad is going to sweep the drama categories, the promising Orange is the New Black would not be able to have all that much success there. But, the comedy categories are much more open-- most people think that Modern Family's reign will come to an end this year, and Orange is the New Black probably has the best chance to take the crown. It makes sense to enter it here...but I think it will hurt the series in the long run, at least Emmys-wise, as the series clearly is a drama, and might not be able to compete here long-term as voters struggle to continue classifying it as a comedy. But, that's neither here nor there for right now-- it's a lock for a nomination and a strong contender for the win.

The only other new series which might crack the list of nominations and unseat a longstanding nominee is Brooklyn Nine Nine. I'm a huge fan of the series and certainly think it deserves a nomination over some of my predictions (cough cough Big Bang Theory cough cough Girls) but, as a new series, it took a while to really get on its feet and I can't see it overcoming the huge Emmy-love that the other nominees have. Brooklyn Nine Nine is a bit of a wildcard, though, and could have a surprising Emmy showing. Its surprising Golden Globes domination certainly helped its chances, so it might have a shot after all.

There are also some series which were once nominated here, but which I see as unlikely to find themselves back in the running. The critically-acclaimed but largely unwatched Episodes always garners a little bit of buzz thanks to its devoted fan base, but just doesn't have the numbers to make it. Nurse Jackie, of my list of "longshots" probably has the best chance of scoring a nomination-- Merritt Wever's surprise win last year might show that the series is still in the Emmys' good graces-- but I fear the field is just too competitive, and with Orange is the New Black, the category already has a "secretly-not-a-comedy" entry on its roster. Lastly, there is my beloved Parks and Recreation, which in a just world would receive all the awards. Although is looked primed to be an Emmys favorite at one point, its failure to score key nominations the past few years has really placed it out of the running. If the Emmys gives any love to a Mike Schur series, it will be Brooklyn Nine Nine.

Outstanding Actor in a Comedy Series:

Sadly, Lincoln is not a real series and is, thus, ineligible.

My Predictions:
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Louis C.K., Louie
Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang theory 
Andy Samberg, Brooklyn Nine Nine

Possibilities:
John Goodman, Alpha House
Jonathan Groff, Looking
William H. Macy, Shameless

Longshots:
Michael J. Fox, The Michael J. Fox Show
Robin Williams, The Crazy Ones

This category is truly up in the air, and is rife for a lot of surprises. Of the nominees, there are really only three true locks: Don Cheadle, Louis C.K., and last year's winner Jim Parsons are all securely going to be nominated here. But, everything else is up in the air, so half of the field is still free. Two of last year's nominees-- Alec Baldwin and Jason Bateman-- do not have series in contention this year and therefore, those spots are open. The fourth nominee, Matt LeBlanc, is likely to get a nomination again, but his position is far more tenuous than his fellow nominees, due only to the fact that so few people watch Episodes. But, given how up in the air this category is, I think he's safe to get nominated again, almost by default.

But, that still leaves two spots open and they could really go to anyone. I think that, because of this, Johnny Galecki will enter the field again because the Emmys inexplicably loves The Big Bang Theory. Galecki is kind of the nominee of convenience-- he's been nominated once before, and really gets thrown in just when there are no other real options, which is the case here. But, of the other possibilities, he's the only other previous nominee here, so that does give him an edge.

Then there's one spot left. There are some big names entered here-- movie stars like John Goodman and Robin Williams, beloved television favorites like Michael J. Fox, and Broadway star Jonathan Groff. The fact that Fox and Williams' shows were canceled doesn't bode well for their chances, so I see them as longshots. Goodman has a chance, but Alpha House failed to make the splash some thought it would, so if he gets it, it's on name alone. Meanwhile, Looking doesn't seem to have any Emmy buzz whatsoever, so I don't really see Groff pulling a nomination here, but I've seen him mentioned a few times, so I thought I'd put him on the list as a possibility-- it's just a slight one. So, I don't see these particular big names really making a huge impression.

Instead, I think the nomination will go to either Andy Samberg for Brooklyn Nine Nine or William H. Macy for Shameless. While Shameless has been on the air for a few seasons, it has submitted as a drama for the past few years, but switched to submitting as a comedy this year since it wasn't having any luck. Macy has starpower, and people have responded well to his performance, so this move might pay off for him and score him a nomination-- I wouldn't be surprised at all if this happens. But, then again, the genre switch might piss some people off and work against Macy. That means...and I can't believe I'm saying this...my final nominee prediction is Samberg. I love Brooklyn Nine Nine, and Samberg is a lot of fun on it...but he's not really acting by any definition of the word. No one would watch this show and think he gives a tour de force performance, and I initially didn't really see him getting any awards consideration at all. But...here's the thing: he won the Golden Globe. That gives him a surprising air of credibility, and if Brooklyn Nine Nine can generate enough Emmys buzz, he's in the running here. Somehow.

Outstanding Actress in a Comedy Series:

Veep and the V.P.

My Predictions:

Lena Dunham, Girls

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Melissa McCarthy, Mike and Molly
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Taylor Schilling, Orange is the New Black

Possibilities:

Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Anna Faris, Mom

This category is a little bit more cut and dry-- of last year's six nominees, two are ineligible (Laura Dern and Tina Fey) but the other four are locks to repeat a nomination for this year. That means that Lena Dunham, Edie Falco, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, and Amy Poehler will definitely be nominated. Maybe This is Poehler's year to finally win? Please? She deserves it so much! Meanwhile, there are two spots open, and one will probably go to Taylor Schilling, who will ride the Orange is the New Black momentum to an Emmy nomination despite the fact that, while she does good work, her character is probably the least interesting on the show. Second least interesting. After Larry. Fuck Larry.

That means there's one spot that's open, and it will most likely go to a previous nominee who didn't get a nomination last year-- either Zooey Deschanel for New Girl or Melissa McCarthy for Mike and Molly. I give McCarthy the edge, as she actually won in the category before. If there is any upset, it will be for Anna Faris-- a new submission in this category for her show Mom. In any other category, I'd put Faris as a longshot, but when there are so few people with an actual shot of a nomination here, that only helps Faris' odds at an upset.

Outstanding Supporting Actor, Comedy:

I couldn't think of a funny caption. Something about penguins? Because they're in tuxes?

My Predictions:
Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine Nine
Ty Burrell, Modern Family

Adam Driver, Girls
Tony Hale, Veep

Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family

Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

Possibilities:

Ed O’Neill, Modern Family

Longshots:
Michael J. Harney, Orange is the New Black
Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
Taran Killam, Saturday Night Live

In a perfect world:
Keegan-Michael Key & Jordan Peele, Key & Peele

Last year, Modern Family's utter domination in the supporting performance categories came to an end, with Tony Hale and Merritt Wever defeating the horde of Modern Family nominees. I think this will happen again this year-- but Modern Family is still a huge force when it comes to nominations. My guess is that, of the four adult males submitted in this category for Modern Family, it will score three nominations. Of the four, I think O'Neill (who, in the show's first year, was the only adult cast member to not be nominated) is the one who will be out of the running-- given that Ty Burrell is too beloved, and it sounds like Jesse Tyler Ferguson and previous winner Eric Stonestreet (who surprised many by failing to get a nomination last year) had some very strong episodes written for them this year. O'Neill definitely has a shot of making it in, but I think of the four, he'll be the odd man out.

If Modern Family takes three of the spots, that means there are three left. One will clearly go to last year's winner, Hale. And Adam Driver, who got a nomination last year, will probably get one again. I feel pretty strongly that Andre Braugher will also score a nomination this year. He was nominated year after year for his work on the show Men of a Certain Age, which nobody watched, and I think he will be once again awarded for his work on a much more high profile show. As with any new series, it's uncertain how it will do when the nominations are announced, but Braugher has a good shot here.

There are, however, a few wildcards. Some of Hale's fellow Veep castmembers could make a play here-- but none have any real buzz, so I didn't include anyone specific on this list. Orange is the New Black is set to do very well at the Emmys, and while its predominantly female cast has the best chance of faring well, if any male cast member has a shot at a nomination, it's veteran character actor Michael J. Harney (Pablo "Pornstache" Schrieber submitted himself in the Guest Performer category). Meanwhile, last year's sixth nominee was Bill Hader for Saturday Night Live, and it's possible (although not exactly likely) that another SNL cast member will take his place. If anyone does, it would probably be Killam-- his Jebidiah Atkinson character is pretty fantastic. Although, if any performers from a sketch comedy show deserve a nomination, it's the titular stars of Key & Peele, who both submitted themselves in the supporting category. What I wouldn't give to see Keegan-Michael Key and/or Jordan Peele pull off an upset nomination in this category! Hell, Peele deserves it if only for the Continental Breakfast sketch.

At one time, I would have also put Neil Patrick Harris down as a good bet for a nomination. His portrayal of Barney Stinson on How I Met Your Mother won him lots of nominations in the past, and although he hasn't managed to get one in the past few years, the fact that it was How I Met Your Mother's final season could help him with Emmys voters an see him return to the contenders circle. But, then How I Met Your Mother made one of the worst finales in television history and it lost any chance of gaining any real Emmys love at all, including for Harris. Fun Fact-- the finale episode of How I Met Your Mother is submitted in the Outstanding Writing category. So...someone is either delusional, or just submitted it as a joke.

Outstanding Supporting Actress, Comedy:

Poussey and Taystee watch an episode of Girls and they are not happy about it.

 
My Predictions:
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Danielle Brooks, Orange is the New Black
Kate Mulgrew, Orange is the New Black
Laura Prepon, Orange is the New Black
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie

Possibilities:

Anna Chlumsky, Veep

Jane Lynch, Glee
Samira Wiley, Orange is the New Black

Longshots:

Margo Martindale, The Millers

Before you ask me why some of your favorites from Orange is the New Black are not here, relax. Many of the cast members-- including Uzo Aduba, Laverne Cox, Lea DeLaria, Natasha Lyonne, and Taryn Manning, submitted themselves in the guest performer category, where they all have a great shot at a nomination-- especially Aduba and Cox. Sadly, and a little perplexingly, Michelle Hurst did not submit herself for any awards consideration, which I think is a shame, considering what wonderful work she does as Miss Claudette. But, to be fair, she doesn't give anything even resembling a comedic performance, so maybe if this show had been submitted in the drama categories where it belongs, she would have been a presence here.

But, even with these performers in the guest performer categories, this category is crowded with Orange is the New Black nominees-- with four actresses having submitted themselves. I think many of them have a good shot...but they face an already really crowded category. It seems impossible to think that Orange is the New Black won't do well here, but which returning nominees will they knock out to earn a place at the table? Surely not last year's winner and expert speech-giver Merritt Wever, who probably won't win again, but is assured a nomination. And surely not Julie Bowen or Sofia Vergara, who will continue to ride the Modern Family nomination train. Mayim Bialik also seems to have a nomination pretty secured down. That leaves only two spots left for the four Orange is the New Black submissions to battle for against last year's nominees Anna Chlumsky and Jane Lynch. I think-- and I cannot say this with confidence-- that Chlumsky and Lynch are going to be left out of the running this year. As loved as Lynch is, Glee no longer has any other Emmys presence and Lynch might no longer be able to show up in such a competitive category. Chlumsky, meanwhile, does great work on Veep, but is not the standout star like her co-stars Dreyfus and Hale, so she might simply be outvoted here and left without a nomination.

That leaves two spots for Orange is the New Black, and I'm going to take a HUGE risk when it comes to Emmys predictions and say that this year, there will be seven nominees. This doesn't happen a lot, although it definitely can happen (and happened in this category last year, in fact). The way the Emmys nominations work are that voters fill out ballots with who they'd like to be nominated. Typically, only the top six vote-getters win, but if more than six people score a certain percentage of votes, then a seventh nominee will be added. Given how competitive this category is, I think that's what will happen, so I'm listing seven nominees, allowing me to predict three from Orange is the New Black. I've chosen Danielle Brooks, Kate Mulgrew, and Laura Prepon as my nominees. Mulgrew and Prepon are the more recognizable faces to Emmys voters, and Brooks' outlandish performance as Taystee could earn her lots of votes over Samira Wiley's slightly more subdued performance as Taystee's cohort Poussey. But, as I said at the beginning, these are my predictions for what I think will happen, not was I want to happen. In an ideal world, Taystee and Poussey will both be nominated. And both win. And get a spinoff where they travel the world and mock white people.

The only other person I see being in consideration here is Margo Martindale for The Millers. Martindale is considered by many to be one of the best actresses on television right now, and while I don't think The Millers is really showcasing her at her best, she's one of those names that just attracts Emmy voters. In another year, it would be enough to assure her a nomination, but given how competitive this category already is, I don't see it happening this year.


And, that's it! Those are my thoughts. We still have another month before the nominees are announced, and we'll see how accurate my predictions are. Please discuss in the comments-- I'd love to know your thoughts. Who will get a nomination? Who deserves one but won't get it? Let me know!

2014 Emmy Predictions: The Drama Nominees

Four for you, Glen Coco! You go, Glen Coco! Aaaaaand none for Dexter Morgan.

As much as I love the Oscars, the Emmys are perhaps my favorite awards ceremony out of all of the top awards in different artistic media. What makes them so fascinating is that, unlike the Oscars, it's not a completely new batch of nominees from year to year. This means that as a show remains on the air, you get to see new trends in how the Emmy voters view different shows. For example, a show like Weeds was an Emmys darling at the start of its run, before being completely shut out during its later seasons. I have a feeling that this has happened to another Showtime series-- Dexter, which used to be a consistent Emmy nominee, but failed to score long-held nominations last year and had what most considered to be an abysmal final season this past year. Other shows, meanwhile, grow in the Emmys' estimation. The Big Bang Theory was completely ignored when it first aired, but has-- for better or for worse (in my opinion, worse)-- since become a considerable Emmy threat. Last year, there was a lot of buzz for the acclaimed series The Americans, and it got almost completely shut out. Does it have a chance to break into the field this year? And then there's the question of how tried-and-true series which have been on the air for years stack up to newer seasons. Look no further than the Best Drama category this year, where most agree it will be a race between the last season of Breaking Bad and the first season of True Detective. It adds an extra element to the predictions game-- instead of looking at other awards ceremonies to make your predictions, you actually get to look at the Emmys themselves.

As always, this is not necessarily who I want to be the nominees-- it is simply who I think they will be. And I'm making these predictions a full month in advance so things could definitely change as the predictions near. But, for now, here are my predictions for the nominees in the major categories. Let's start with the drama categories.

Outstanding Drama Series:

Malcolm in the Middle had one of the weirdest finales ever.

My Predictions: 
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
Mad Men
True Detective

Possibilities: 
The Good Wife
Homeland
Masters of Sex

Longshots:
The Americans
Boardwalk Empire

I already mentioned that this category will probably come down to a race between the last season of Breaking Bad and the first season of True Detective. I don't see how Breaking Bad won't come out on top, but regardless, both are shoo-ins for a nomination at least. Then, we have longtime Emmy darling Mad Men. While it was once the odds-on favorite to win this category every year, it has not won in the past two years, and will struggle to win again. Still, it's a pretty safe bet for a nomination. So is HBO epic Game of Thrones-- which was seen as a long shot for a nomination in its first year, but has proven itself as a consistent Emmy favorite. Netflix's House of Cards is also a lock.

This leaves one spot left, with a lot of shows competing for it. Downton Abbey and Homeland have both been nominated the past two years (with Homeland winning once) but have experienced diminishing critical returns with each season. This opens up the field for a new show to take this last spot. A good bet would be Masters of Sex, which has gotten a lot of attention but remains a bit of a wildcard given the competitiveness of the Drama categories. If any series is going to be crack this category from the previous nominees, it will be The Good Wife-- a previous nominee itself, which has not been nominated in this category for the past two years. But this last season was hailed as one of the series' best-- if it's going to get back into the Emmys' graces, this would have been the season to do it. Something tells me, though, that Downton Abbey will be nominated again after all. While a lot of people are not with me on this prediction, Downton Abbey  has been shown a disproportionate amount of Emmy love in each of its seasons. The Emmys LOVE this show, and it is hard for me to imagine it not being at play here.

This means that Boardwalk Empire-- another previous nominee in this category, which was once considered a favorite to win the award back in 2011-- is pretty much out completely. I don't see good odds for The Americans either, despite its high acclaim. It didn't manage to impress Emmy voters last year, and with True Detective at play, I think that the category has only gotten more competitive.

Outstanding Actor in a Drama Series:

But, like, actually, how the hell did Matthew McConaughey become one of the most acclaimed actors of our generation? How did this happen? When did this happen?

My Predictions:

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Matthew McConaughey, True Detective

Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Michael Sheen, Masters of Sex

Possibilities:

Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Woody Harrelson, True Detective
Damian Lewis, Homeland

James Spader, The Blacklist

Longshots:

Mads Mikkelsen, Hannibal

Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Liev Schrieber, Ray Donovan

Another really tough category here. Bryan Cranston will definitely be nominated for his portrayal of Walter White in Breaking Bad's final season. And he will win. He has to win. He's been snubbed now for two years in a row (I'm STILL reeling from Jeff Daniels' perplexing surprise win in this category last year) and this year he will reclaim the award that is rightfully his. The only one who could possibly unseat him is Matthew McConaughey for True Detective, riding in on a wave of Oscar momentum. Many think Daniels will be left out this year, as more and more become disillusioned with both his performance and The Newsroom as a whole. But, as much as a I understand why he might fail to score a nomination here, he wasn't just nominated last year, he WON THE WHOLE THING. To not get nominated the next year would be a huge snub, and he clearly has a lot of fans who will vote for him blindly, so I do think he's a safe bet here. Another safe bet is Kevin Spacey, who portrays the character of evil Southern Kevin Spacey on House of Cards. I also think that Jon Hamm-- the perpetual bridesmaid of the Emmys-- will be nominated for his work on Mad Men. I call him a bridesmaid because this would be his 7th nomination in this category and he STILL has not won, but also because he's in the movie Bridesmaids.

Again, this leaves one spot open, with four people likely competing for it (and any of those four could knock out Hamm, or even Daniels). Those four are Damian Lewis, James Spader, Woody Harrelson, and Michael Sheen. Lewis is a previous winner in this category and of these four is the only nominee from last year, plus his character was killed off this season (um...spoilers. Sorry) which tends to help score a nomination. But, the poorer reviews of this season of Homeland imply that the show is not as much of a force to be reckoned with, and I see this as an indication that Lewis will be knocked out in favor of a bigger, newer name. Spader is certainly not completely new to the Emmys-- he has won several in years past-- so his Emmy darling status makes him a strong possibility for a nomination here. The only problem is that The Blacklist, while popular, really is not all that good. And while even the show's harshest critics agree that Spader is really good in it, the show's overall negative reaction will hurt Spader's chances in such a loaded category. A lot of people are predicting that McConaughey's co-star Harrelson will be the one to grab the nomination, and there's a good chance of this. But, given that McConaughey's name is the one being thrown around much more consistently, I think that Harrelson is going to end up playing second fiddle to his Oscar-winning co-star. This leaves one major contender for the sixth nomination: Michael Sheen for Masters of Sex. The acclaimed show might make a huge splash on Emmys night and garner multiple nominations, or it might end up with a disappointing premiere Emmys showing (a la The Americans last year). If the latter is the case, then I think Sheen is the show's best chance at a major nomination.

Regardless, previous nominees like Steve Buscemi and Hugh Bonneville are looking more and more like longshots as their shows have lost favor and bigger names have thrown their hat into the ring. It also means that Matthew Rhys and Mads Mikkelsen-- who both gained a bit of buzz last year and still have some this year-- are probably going to fail to be contenders for the second time. Of my longshots, the one with the best possibility of pulling an upset is Liev Schrieber for Ray Donovan, but he's in the same position as Spader, and between the two, Spader has the better shot.

Outstanding Actress in a Drama Series:

I haven't seen Scandal, and don't know much about it, but it sounds as if it's The West Wing but everyone is sleeping together. Accurate?

My Predictions:
Claire Danes, Homeland

Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

Kerry Washington, Scandal

Robin Wright, House of Cards

Possibilities:

Connie Britton, Nashville

Lizzy Caplan, Masters of Sex

Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel

Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black

Elizabeth McGovern, Downton Abbey
Keri Russell, The Americans

There are four pretty certain locks here: Claire Danes, Elisabeth Moss, Kerry Washington, and Robin Wright. All were nominated last year and have a strong chance of getting nominated again (with many thinking that Washington will disrupt Danes' two-year winning streak). This means there are two spots left. Last year, due to the competitive nature of the category, there were actually seven nominees (the reason for this is complicated and might be the subject of another post-- if people are interested in the voting technicalities, let me know in the comments and I'll run through them). The other three nominees from last year-- Michelle Dockery, Connie Britton, and Vera Farmiga-- all have a chance of getting nominated again, and it's likely that at least one of them will, but it's highly unlikely, I think, that two of the three will gain nominations again. Of the three, I think Britton has the worst chance of repeating a nomination. Now that it's in its second season, Nashville has lost a lot of buzz, and Britton has with it. I think Dockery has the best chance of the three, given the aforementioned crush the Emmys has on Downton Abbey. If Dockery does grab the fifth nomination, that leaves one extra spot, which I think will be taken by a nominee we didn't see last year. Julianna Margulies has a great shot at this-- a previous winner in this category, Margulies has the benefit of a really strong season which could catapult her back into the running. But she faces some tough competition. Elizabeth McGovern has been nominated for her work on Downton Abbey, and is submitting herself in the leading actress category for the first time this year. Tatiana Maslany's work on Orphan Black is widely considered some of the best on television, and her exclusion last year was considered a major snub. Lizzy Caplan has gotten great reviews for her work on the new series Masters of Sex, and has a shot here. Lastly, many still hold out hope that the Emmys will recognize The Americans this year and are throwing Keri Russell's name around. This category is really up in the air and could be full of surprises when the nominations are announced in July.

Outstanding Supporting Actor, Drama:

Pictured: The most and the least bald male cast members of Breaking Bad

My Predictions:

Jim Carter, Downton Abbey

Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Dean Norris, Breaking Bad
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland

Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

Possibilities:

Michael B. Jordan, Boardwalk Empire

Jeff Perry, Scandal                             

Peter Sarsgaard, The Killing

John Slattery, Mad Men
Jon Voight, Ray Donovan
Jeffrey Wright, Boardwalk Empire

For this award to go to Aaron Paul for his performance as a sad puppy dog, he first has to be nominated, and he will be. The next spot in this category will go to Peter Dinklage, who continues to be submitted in the supporting category despite everyone's belief that the show is really about him. Unlike the other categories, Dinklage and Paul are the only two real locks, so this category is a little bit more undecided, but  if there is a third sure bet, it's for Mandy Patinkin in Homeland.

This leaves four spots wide open. While his nomination is not as assured as it has been in previous years, I think Jim Carter is a pretty safe choice to be the fourth nominee. The Breaking Bad writers basically wrote the season in such a way that it would assure Dean Norris a nomination, so he will likely join the ranks of Giancarlo Esposito and Jonathan Banks as antagonists-to-Walter-White-who-get-nominated-once-after-their-characters-are-killed.

This leaves one more spot open-- one that had been filled by last year's winner Bobby Cannavale, who is not eligible this year. It's possible that this free spot will be filled by another actor from the star-studded Boardwalk Empire cast-- most likely Michael B. Jordan or Jeffrey Wright-- but I think it will more likely go to a previous nominee, one who just missed out on making it last time. That would mean either Josh Charles for The Good Wife or John Slattery for Mad Men, and as much as I love Slattery, I think Charles has the better shot.

The third option is that the free spot will go to someone completely new. The best chance of this is Jon Voight, who won the Golden Globe this year and has received several nominations from other awards. In fact, he's probably the safest bet to gain a nomination, but I put him down as just a possibility because...I just really don't see Ray Donovan doing all that well. It's not that people think it's the worst show...it's just that it really doesn't have the substance to be a true Emmys contender. The smart money is on Voight, but I'm taking a risk and leaving him off of my list of nominees. Another possible newcomer to the category is Jeff Perry for Scandal, whose nomination could show a surge in Emmy attention towards the show.

Lastly, there's Peter Sarsgaard for The Killing. You have no idea how much I want this to happen. I have already spoken about how I feel this show is criminally underrated. And I think if the show has any shot at all of getting Emmys love for its exceptional third season, it's on Sarsgaard. He's a recognizable name, and he gave an INCREDIBLE performance. He certainly deserves it, and there has been a tiny bit of buzz surrounding him. Not much, but perhaps it will be enough for him to score a surprise nomination.

Supporting Actress: Drama:

Maggie Smith in the film Gosford Park, but you totally thought it was from Downton Abbey, didn't you?

My Predictions:
Morena Baccarin, Homeland
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad

Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

Michelle Monaghan, True Detective

Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Possibilities:
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones

Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones

Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife

Longshots:
Betsy Brandt, Breaking Bad

This category has the potential to be pretty up in the air. At one point, I would have put previous winner Archie Panjabi as a lock for a nomination-- but after she failed to score one last year, she might be out of luck. The supporting categories tend to be rife for upsets, so they become difficult to really predict. But, that means that when making predictions, the previous year's nominees become your best bet. And, sure enough, I think that all of last year's nominees have a chance to score a nomination again this year. But, there's a twist in the form of newcomer Michelle Monaghan, who seems like she has a great chance of winning for her work on True Detective. If Monaghan is in, though, it means that one of last year's nominees is going to be out, and I think the most likely is Emilia Clarke. That means, my predictions are Monaghan, plus last year's nominees Morena Baccarin, Christine Baranski, Anna Gunn, Christine Hendricks, and Maggie Smith.

If someone else breaks into the nominees (possibly unseating Baccarin? I don't know) then the best bet would be either Panjabi or Downton Abbey's Joanne Froggatt, who might join her co-star Smith. There has also been a little bit of buzz for Lena Headey to take Clarke's nomination as the representative for Game of Thrones.

The only wildcard here is Betsy Brandt for Breaking Bad. I honestly think that Brandt could have had a shot, but the writers didn't give Marie a specific standout episode like they did with, say, her husband Hank. Before the season aired, I thought that Brandt would be a surprise contender here, but after the season ended, I thought this wasn't as likely. Still, Brandt is getting a little bit of buzz, and if the Emmys decide to just shower Breaking Bad with all of the awards then Brandt could pull an upset and walk away with a nomination.

And, those are my thoughts on the drama nominees. Please discuss in the comments-- do you think my predictions are correct, or way off? Who deserves a nomination but won't get one? Let me know, and be sure to check out my predictions for the comedy categories.

Rating the Underrated: Musicals Based on Movies

I have long been a champion of Broadway. As off-Broadway, off-off-Broadway, and regional theater continue to grow in acclaim, many people have claimed that Broadway is becoming irrelevant. The problem with this thinking is that Broadway is not meant to be in competition with regional theater-- the ideal is for both to be impressive and thriving-- not for one to be better than the other. And while Broadway is certainly struggling, it's never going anywhere. As long as people are making theater, Broadway will be around and will be at the forefront of the American theater scene.

That's not to say that there are not flaws with Broadway. There are so many flaws. Works by female playwrights are still largely unproduced even as the number of prominent female playwright grows nationwide, there is still an emphasis on commercialization, there is a lack of accessibility as student discounts seem to disappear and ticket prices rise to all-time highs, and many more problems which would be more than worthy of a discussion. But I want to address one of the most common complaints that I hear about Broadway-- one which I've heard mentioned far more often than the far more valid ones I listed above. And, frankly, I've never understood why it's so problematic for so many people: the complaint that all Broadway shows are based on movies.

Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick in The Producers: which won the most Tony awards in Broadway history and also happens to be based on a movie.

The idea behind the complaint is that it seems like every show coming to Broadway is based on a movie-- which generally leads to the follow-up question of "aren't there any original ideas out there?" I can definitely understand, in theory, where people are coming from. The theater community prides itself on its creativity, and so the idea that there are previously told stories taking up space on Broadway marquis can be troubling. Especially when those stories are taken from a medium like film, which has not been around for as long as theater. I think that this complaint comes from a certain sense of superiority-- the idea that theater is supposed to be more sophisticated than film. And that's a problem. Theater and film are two different art forms-- neither is better or worse. I think it would be fair to say that film borrows from theater just as much as theater borrows from film. Since 2000, six of the winners of the Tony Award for Best Play have been made into films. Film, in fact, celebrates the act of adaptation. Since 2000, nine of the winners for Best Picture have had screenplays adapted from other works as opposed to being original stories. Yet no one is complaining that film as an art form is lacking in originality. Just because a story is pre-existing doesn't mean that there can't be creativity. In his entire career as a playwright, William Shakespeare only wrote one original story (The Tempest) and the rest were all adaptations. The truth is that there are plenty of beloved musicals out there which are drawn from films. While people may complain about this trend when discussing, say, Mary Poppins, few people are bringing it up when discussing better-accepted best musical winners such as The Lion King, The Producers, or Once. In fact, the four nominees for Best Musical last year were all inspired by films: Bring It On, A Christmas Story, Matilda, and the winner, Kinky Boots.

A scene from the dark and delightful Matilda the Musical

Of those nominees, I think that Bring It On is the most interesting case, and the one which best exemplifies the thesis of this post. I will admit that when I went to see Bring It On, I didn't expect it to be that good. I thought it would be fun, and I was sure it would have some great choreography, but I didn't expect it to be great theater. The reason? Well, because it was inspired on the film Bring It On. But, in reality, there was a lot to suggest that it would be good. It was written in part by Tom Kitt, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Jeff Whitty, who helped write Next to Normal, In the Heights, and Avenue Q respectively-- three of the most innovative shows to run on Broadway in recent years. With a pedigree like that, why shouldn't this be a really solid show? And, it was. I enjoyed Kinky Boots, and absolutely loved Matilda, but when it came down to it, Bring It On was my favorite new musical of that year. It featured a great script and score (although I do like Matilda's score more) and was simply an outstanding production. Rousing, inspiring, and with some really great messages hidden in there for good measure (the supporting character of La Cienega might have been one of the best and most respectful representations of a transgender character I've seen written for the stage). On Tony night, Bring It On was not a real contender to win the award for Best Musical. And many people were scoffing at the fact that it was nominated at all. But I can bet that these people never saw the show at all-- they dismissed it simply because it was a film adaptation (as a sidenote, the musical had very little to do with the film Bring It On-- while both had to do with cheerleaders, they had different plots and a completely different set of characters).

The diverse and incredibly hardworking cast of Bring it On performs on of the show's many showstopping numbers.

The first show which I think fell "victim" to this trend is Shrek the Musical in 2008. That's the first  time I specifically recall people being angry at a show that was adapted from a film. People were livid-- "Really, they're making a musical based on Shrek now?" I maintain that if Shrek the Musical had been released just a couple of years earlier, it would have been a huge hit-- but at that point, people were simply tired of this trend and wouldn't see it out of principle. But, like Bring it On, Shrek had a lot going for it. The music was by prolific composer Jeanine Tesori, with book and lyrics by beloved playwright David Lindsay-Abaire. Plus, it starred Broadway stars Brian d'Arcy James, Sutton Foster, and Christopher Sieber. Unfortunately, nobody saw it, and it closed all too soon. While it wasn't a perfect show, it had some absolutely clever moments, and some great songs (the act one finale "Who I'd Be" was a standout, for me). Perhaps most notably, the show featured some absolutely brilliant and clever staging in regards to the villain: Lord Farquad. In the film, a recurring joke was Farquad's diminutive height and the stage production took full advantage of this. Sieber performed the role almost entirely on his knees, in a special costume that made him look much shorter than he is. It was a gimmick, but an absolutely brilliant one-- and one of the best performances I've ever seen on Broadway. That he lost the Tony to Gregory Jbara in Billy Elliot was, frankly, criminal (Jbara is a great actor, but his role in that show simply didn't compare to what Sieber did). Check out this performance from the Tonys and tell me that this show doesn't look like it was fantastic. Yet, again, this musical suffered because of some stigma against adaptations from movies. And-- as beloved as the film is-- the fact that it's a kids movie didn't help its chances.

As Tony host Neil Patrick Harris sang, "Chris Sieber, please, performing on your knees? That only gets you Golden Globes."

I think the same stigma is being applied towards the Broadway musical Rocky. When it was announced that Rocky was coming to Broadway, there was a similar uproar of disbelief. It was thought that Broadway was really scraping the bottom of the barrel to be making a musical out of Rocky. But...why? What makes Rocky so unsuitable for being a stage musical? It's certainly a rousing story, and offers the chance for really creative choreography. But, more than anything, Rocky is a film which already incorporates music into it really well. It has one of the best scores in the history of film-- why shouldn't it be a musical? I have not yet seen the show-- although I already have tickets to see it soon-- so I can't speak firsthand, but everyone who I've spoken to has said they were surprised at how great it was. And coming from director Alex Timbers-- behind some of the most original Broadway shows of recent years, like Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson and Peter and the Starcatcher-- I have no doubts it will be an underrated gem. While it didn't get a nomination for Best Musical at the Tonys, it has been recognized by most other awards shows. Yet, it's struggling financially, and I have no doubts that this is due in part to those who have written it off without seeing it. If any such person is reading this, give the show a chance.

Andy Karl as the titular character in Rocky the Musical

My point is that just because a lot of Broadway musicals are based on films doesn't mean that Broadway, and certainly not the theater scene at large, is lacking in creativity or originality. There are still original stories being shown on stage every day, and the stories that have already been told are still creative in their own right. There are many criticisms one could throw at Broadway-- this particular one is incredibly misguided.

But despite everything I've just said, I'm really dreading the upcoming stage musical of School of Rock. This is a film which I have said for YEARS would translate really well to the stage. And I stand by that. But, who's decided to take it upon themselves to bring this vision to life? Andrew Lloyd Webber. Andrew. Lloyd. Webber. This is the worst news I've ever heard. He must be stopped.

Math is a wonderful thing. Yes, math is a really cool thing.