2014 Emmys: Award Predictions

As you probably know, this Monday is the Primetime Emmy Awards. It's a really fun ceremony and tends to be one of the more unpredictable awards shows. I've already talked about this year's Emmys, but below, here is my official rundown of all of the main categories-- including who I think will win. As always, I'm choosing what I think the winner WILL be, as opposed to who I want it to be.

And, if you want to see which shows I wish I were talking about, be sure to check out my list of shows which I wish the Emmys would have recognized. Enjoy my predictions, and be sure to share yours in the comments!

Outstanding Drama Series:

Breaking Bad

Downton Abbey

Game of Thrones

House of Cards

Mad Men

True Detective

This is a battle between the old and the new. Two series are competing for this award. One (Breaking Bad) is an acclaimed series which has finished its run, the other (True Detective) is a brand new series which arrived with a lot of fanfare. When Breaking Bad aired its final episode “Felina,” I thought it would be absolutely unbeatable, but True Detective has built up a lot of momentum. To the point that this category is no longer the certainty it once was.

That being said, I still think Breaking Bad is the favorite by a longshot. Remember, the reaction to the final season was not just “That was great!” it was “THAT WAS THE GREATEST SERIES OF ALL TIME!” And while True Detective has undoubtedly received high praise, it has not quite received that level of praise. Sure, the Breaking Bad finale was a long time ago, but it is still the most talked about show of the season. For it to not win this year seems inconceivable. True Detective has a chance, certainly, but it’s a slight one.

Any other series here could really just give up now. They’re great shows, but this is just not their year.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series:

Lizzy Caplan as Virginia Johnson—Masters of Sex

Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison—Homeland

Michelle Dockery as Lady Mary Crawley—Downton Abbey

Julianna Margulies as Alicia Florrick—The Good Wife

Kerry Washington as Olivia Pope—Scandal

Robin Wright as Claire Underwood—House of Cards

This is possibly the most contested major category of the year, to the point that there really isn’t a favorite. Claire Danes has won the past few years, and could win again this year, but there’s also a lot of support for Juliana Margulies, Kerry Washington, and Robin Wright. And I really have no idea who will win—it could be any of those four. So, sorry Michelle Dockery but you’re really not in this race at all, and Lizzy Caplan, you maybe could have been a contender if the Emmy voters had responded more favorably to Masters of Sex.

Again, of the four, I really have no idea. I know a lot of people are predicting a win for Wright, but I don’t see it. The most talked about performance of the show is Kevin Spacey’s, and given that a win for him is unlikely (more on that in the next category) I don’t see Wright winning when Spacey does not. Washington definitely has a chance, but I feel like she had more buzz last year, and still did not win. This year, the buzz for Scandal had seriously diminished, so I think it’ll be between Danes and Margulies. Margulies—a former winner in this category—actually failed to get a nomination last year, and possibly only just narrowly made the nominations this year. But, now that she actually is a nominee, maybe people will start paying more attention to her performance. While it didn’t crack the Best Drama Series nominees, The Good Wife had what many consider to be its best season ever, and that might be the boost Margulies needs to dethrone Danes. Margulies is my pick, but again, any of these four could win and I wouldn’t be surprised.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series:

Bryan Cranston as Walter White—Breaking Bad

Jeff Daniels as Will McAvoy—The Newsroom

Jon Hamm as Don Draper—Mad Men

Woody Harrelson as Martin Hart—True Detective

Matthew McConaughey as Rustin Cohle—True Detective

Kevin Spacey as Frank Underwood—House of Cards

Oh boy, this is a tough one. Much like the Best Drama Series category, this one is going to come down to Breaking Bad and True Detective. Bryan Cranston’s performance as Walter White has been heralded as one of the greatest in television history, and the episode he’s nominated for (“Ozymandias”) was the absolute right choice. It seems inconceivable that they would not give him this award one last time (especially since he has not won for the past couple of years).

But, just like True Detective might have enough momentum to win Best Drama Series, we have True Detective’s star Matthew McConaughey, who is basically the human embodiment of momentum. The Emmys love when movie stars do television—especially movie stars who just won an Oscar. And while I pretty confidently believe that Breaking Bad will win best drama, I cannot stand so firmly in my convictions here. I really want to believe that it will be Cranston, but as time has gone on, McConaughey seems more and more likely. He’s my prediction to win, and I hate myself for it. I’m hoping that I’m wrong and Cranston wins the award that is rightfully his.

Or maybe they’ll just not know what to do, panic, and give it to Jeff fucking Daniels again. Even though nobody wants that.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series:

Christine Baranski as Diane Lockhart—The Good Wife

Joanne Froggatt as Anna Bates—Downton Abbey

Anna Gunn as Skyler White—Breaking Bad

Lena Headey as Cersei Lannister—Game of Thrones

Christina Hendricks as Joan Harris—Mad Men

Maggie Smith as Violet Crawley, Dowager Countess of Grantham—Downton Abbey

It’s an interesting lineup here. Maggie Smith and Christina Hendricks would have been contenders at one point, but have since lost a lot of buzz (I’m hoping that the outstanding Hendricks might win one day—although, she might have to wait for Mad Men’s final season of eligibility given how the Emmys have been going). There has been some buzz for Christine Baranski—another actress who has been nominated a lot but never won for her work on The Good Wife, but it seems far and away as if this award will go to Anna Gunn. What with True Detective’s rise in momentum, she is actually Breaking Bad’s most certain award of the night.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series:

Jim Carter as Charles Carson—Downton Abbey

Josh Charles as Will Gardner—The Good Wife

Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister—Game of Thrones

Mandy Patinkin as Saul Berenson—Homeland

Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman—Breaking Bad

Jon Voight as Mickey Donovan—Ray Donovan

Another contested category. It seems likely that Aaron Paul will win for his performance as Jesse Pinkman—he’s the favorite, and is my prediction. But, last year, there was a huge upset when Bobby Cannavale won, and there could be another upset here. If anyone unseats Paul, it would be either Josh Charles or Jon Voight (who keeps winning awards for his performance despite the fact that everyone’s reaction to Ray Donovan is a perfect “Meh.”) Bet on Paul to win, but an upset is not without the realm of possibility.

Outstanding Comedy Series:

The Big Bang Theory

Louie

Modern Family

Orange is the New Black

Silicon Valley

Veep

Modern Family has won this award every year it has been on the air, and as the incumbent, seems like a strong contender to win again. But, in this case, its many wins are probably the best case for why Modern Family will not win in this category again this year. It’s too stale at this point, and the Emmy voters will want to vary it up. This could be seen last year, when it failed to win the supporting actor and actress awards that it used to dominate. Now, it’s time for another comedy to be given this award.

While Louie definitely has its supporters, it’s never going to be mainstream enough to win this award. And Silicon Valley should just feel lucky to be nominated, to be honest (not speaking at all to its quality, just in terms of buzz). This leaves the Emmys with three options for what will win Best Comedy Series.

On one hand it could be The Big Bang Theory.

• Pros: it is by far the most popular comedy out of all the nominees. Reruns of this show on TBS get better ratings than some of the other nominees. And the Emmys clearly love it, having awarded the Best Actor Emmy to Jim Parsons three thousand times.
• Cons: If this show is declared the best comedy on television, then it will merit the death of all comedy and we will be forced to live in a humorless world where laughter is forbidden. This may seem like hyperbole. It is not. The Big Bang Theory is so jaw-droppingly not funny…I just…I just don’t get it. This show’s popularity makes me cry if I think about it too much. It just can’t win. It just can’t. Please. Please do not let this show win. If it wins, I might have to stop watching television.

So, hopefully it won’t be that show. Perhaps it will be Veep.

• Pros: The show is already an Emmy darling, wining multiple awards and featuring a fantastic cast, fantastic writing, and all-around universal acclaim. It’s probably the safest choice of the nominees.
• Cons: It has been around too long. For a show to be rewarded by the Emmys, it needs to either be new, or something has to have happened to change its status. For example, The Office unseated Everybody Loves Raymond for Outstanding Comedy series in 2006 for its second season (also known as the first season that it was good because the first season doesn’t count). It was then unseated by 30 Rock, which won for its first season and then continued to win for three years, until it was unseated by Modern Family for its first season. If Veep had an exceptionally remarkable season, then maybe it would have more of a chance, but it didn’t. This previous season was, generally, just as good as its previous ones. So, there’s nothing to distinguish this particular season enough to allow it to defeat Modern Family.

Which means that the most likely winner in this category, and my prediction for the win, is Orange is the New Black.

• Pros: It’s a new show. It’s an acclaimed new show. It’s a groundbreaking acclaimed new show. It’s a groundbreaking acclaimed new show that has already picked up a few Emmys at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards. It will almost definitely win this award on Monday.
• Cons: If anything is working against Orange is the New Black, it’s the fact that it’s just not that funny. Granted, some scenes are laugh out loud hilarious, but if you were to consider this series as a whole, it’s tough to classify it as a comedy as opposed to a drama. The other nominees are more easily defined as comedies (with the exception of The Big Bang Theory which can only be defined as a Kafkaesque torture device created as part of some sort of social experiment to see if people can be convinced something is funny just because there’s a laugh track). But, while it may not be definitively a comedy, Orange is the New Black is 100% a great show. It has the best chance of winning, and it will absolutely deserve it.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series:

Lena Dunham as Hannah Horvath—Girls

Edie Falco as Jackie Peyton—Nurse Jackie

Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer—Veep

Melissa McCarthy as Molly Flynn—Mike & Molly

Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope—Parks and Recreation

Taylor Schilling as Piper Chapman—Orange is the New Black

Julia Louis-Dreyfus has won this award for the past two years, and many seem to think she’s going to win a third time. It could definitely happen. However, the Emmy voters are usually very inconsistent in this category in particular. Julia Louis-Dreyfus is the first consecutive winner in this category since Patricia Heaton won in 2000 and 2001, which means there were ten whole years without a single repeat winner. Louis-Dreyfus is the frontrunner, but I think it’s likely she might be dethroned. The question is, by who?

The likeliest actresses to take this award from Louis-Dreyfus are Amy Poehler and Taylor Schilling. This is Poehler’s fifth nomination and she still has not won, despite near-universal acclaim for her performance. Fresh off of a Golden Globe win (unbelievably, the first major acting award she has won in her career), this might be Poehler’s year to finally get her due. Schilling’s chances have less to do with her performance, and more to do with the show as a whole. Don’t get me wrong, I like Schilling, and I think she does great work on Orange is the New Black, but I don’t think anyone would consider her performance to be the standout within that cast. Unlike Poehler and Louis-Dreyfus, the show doesn’t hinge on her performance. It all depends on how Emmy voters react to the series—if they decide to show universal love to Orange is the New Black, then Schilling will undoubtedly benefit from it. Even though her performance is far from the most comedic on this list.

Eie Falco has had her day in the sun and an Emmy win for her seems incredibly unlikely, but the Emmys do love her and she should never be counted out. Melissa McCarthy, however, can be counted out—she no longer has the Oscar-nominee buzz that she had when she won previously. At one point, I would have thought that Lena Dunham would be a strong contender here. I am not a fan of her or of her show, but the show is undeniably hers, and she certainly has the acclaim to pull off a win. But, the fact that Girls failed to crack the Best Comedy category (surprisingly losing its spot to fellow HBO show Silicon Valley) shows that The Emmys are not as nuts about Girls as, for example, the Golden Globes. The show’s lack of a nomination leaves Dunham all but out of the running.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series:

Louis C.K. as Louie—Louie

Don Cheadle as Marty Kaan—House of Lies

Ricky Gervais as Derek Noakes—Derek

Matt LeBlanc as himself—Episodes

William H. Macy as Frank Gallagher—Shameless

Jim Parsons as Sheldon Cooper—The Big Bang Theory

Words cannot express how much I do not want Jim Parsons to win this award. It’s nothing against him personally—in fact, I think he’s a wonderful actor and I look forward to seeing him in other projects—but The Big Bang Theory is just not a good show, and it frustrates me that he has won so many times for it when there are so many better shows which could be rewarded. But, the sad thing is, I don’t see any of the other nominees here being able to unseat him. If you look at the nominees, you’ll notice that only Parsons and Louis C.K. are on shows which are nominated in the other major categories. And that is a big boost for both of them. As wonderful as Don Cheadle is, Emmy voters are not going to rally behind House of Lies, and it’s going to make it tough for him to win such a major award. Same goes for Matt LeBlanc, and DEFINITELY goes for Ricky Gervais, who managed to get nominated for Derek purely because the Emmys will nominate him for anything.

William H. Macy is a bit of a wildcard—up until this year, Shameless was entered as a drama, and Macy failed to get nominated there. Switching categories helped him gain a nomination, will it help him get a win? Possibly, but not probably. The best hope to defeat Parsons is Louis C.K. Many have called for C.K. to win, but the truth is that he’s not much of an actor. He’s a wonderful comedian, but the strength of Louie is in its writing, directing, and C.K.’s overall artistic vision. He would be the first to admit that he’s not much of an actor (and, in fact, there’s an episode of Louie where he talks about his poor acting skills). He’s certainly competent, but he’s not really Best Actor quality. He could win just because The Emmys love Louie. But, let’s be honest. It’s going to be Jim Parsons. Again.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series:

Mayim Bialik as Amy Farrah Fowler—The Big Bang Theory

Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy—Modern Family

Anna Chlumsky as Amy Brookheimer—Veep

Allison Janney as Bonnie Plunkett—Mom

Kate McKinnon as various characters—Saturday Night Live

Kate Mulgrew as Galina “Red” Reznikov—Orange is the New Black

This is an especially tough category, as last year’s winner Merritt Wever is not even nominated. While it is great to see Kate McKinnon nominated, she’s not going to win. Things don’t look great for Julie Bowen either. She’s the only person who has won this award before (although Allison Janney has approximately five thousand Emmys in other categories) but, as I’ve already mentioned, the Emmys’ adoration of Modern Family has cooled considerably, and her chances of winning seem low. Repeat nominees Mayim Bialik and Anna Chlumsky definitely have a chance here, but they’re not the frontrunners.

This award will either go to Janney or Kate Mulgrew, and there are points to be made for both of them. Most people are saying this award will go to Janney. She certainly is a great actress (probably because of the training she received in college. Whatever college she attended must be super great and any actors who graduate from there must be really, really talented) and has won a ton of Emmys in the past. In fact, she has already won an Emmy this year, being awarded the Emmy for Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series for Masters of Sex. If she wins this year, it’ll be a two-Emmy year for Janney. The only thing working against her is the fact that Mom didn’t do that well in the nominations, and so the votes she receives are going to be coming from people who don’t necessarily love the show that she’s on. Conversely, she’s going up against Mulgrew, who is on the show that will probably win Best Comedy (and who, surprisingly, is the only cast member from that show to be in this category). Mulgrew is exceptional on Orange is the New Black, delivering a career-reviving performance and has plenty of opportunities to show off both her comedic and dramatic chops. To me, she seems like the natural favorite to win here, but most other oddsmakers are predicting that Janney will win it. Maybe they know something I don’t know. I’m going to go ahead and predict that Janney will win. But if Mulgrew wins, then I’ll go ahead and say “I knew it!” anyway.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series:

Fred Armisen as various characters—Portlandia

Andre Braugher as Raymond Holt—Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy—Modern Family

Adam Driver as Adam Sackler—Girls

Jesse Tyler Ferguson as Mitchell Pritchett—Modern Family

Tony Hale as Gary Walsh—Veep

Much like with the supporting actress in a comedy series category, it’s a two-horse race. After Tony Hale won last year, the Modern Family actors lost all of the momentum they had built up, and it seems unlikely that either Ty Burrell or Jesse Tyler Ferguson will  be able to pull off a win (although, Ferguson definitely has his fans, considering he has yet to win in this category). Another longshot is Adam Driver of Girls, and even more of a longshot is Fred Armisen, as sketch comedy actors rarely actually win the award.

This leaves last year’s winner, Hale, and newcomer Andre Braugher. Both are wonderful, and I’ve seen other commentators be totally split on who will win—it seems like it’s a 50/50 shot here. Personally, I think it would be exciting if Braugher won here, and Janney won in the Supporting Actress category—as the winners would be two veterans who are the only nominees for their new series. And it would be great for Braugher to win because it would give more attention to the wonderful and fun Brooklyn Nine Nine. Hale has a definite shot at a repeat win, but I’m giving a slight edge to Braugher.

Anyway, those are my predictions. We could see a total sweep in both the drama and comedy categories, depending on how well Breaking Bad and Orange is the New Black do. We’ll find out soon. Be sure to watch the Emmys on Monday! Oh, and while I usually don’t know much about the miniseries categories, bet on The Normal Heart to do really well. It’s definitely going to dominate.

2014 Emmys: First Reactions

Emmy nominations were announced todays and, as always, there were some great additions, some tragic omissions, and some real surprises. So, let's start with the important thing-- how did I do with my predictions? Below are my thoughts, including how many of the nominees I correctly predicted. And to prove I'm not lying, feel free to check my original predictions for the drama and comedy categories.

Drama Series: 6/6! (Off to a good start)

Comedy Series: 5/6 (Silicon Valley—which I had not even considered at all—managed to make its way into this category. Knocking out Girls, which some had seen winning the whole shebang. Personally, I cannot stand the show, so I am happy to see it left out here, but it’s still surprising

Actor in a Drama: 5/6 (Woody Harrelson is the only one I didn’t predict, but it’s not surprising. I bet it was close between him and Michael Sheen—the only one I predicted who didn’t get a nomination).

Actress in a Drama: 5/6 (While I incorrectly predicted Michael Sheen, I failed to predict his co-star Lizzy Caplan who grabbed a nomination here! Great to see. But, I must say, I’m pretty shocked that Elisabeth Moss was left off the ballot this year. Seems like a huge snub for one of Mad Men’s strongest performers.

Supporting Actor in a Drama: 5/6 (Jon fucking Voight. I knew he would PROBABLY get a nomination, but it still feels weird to me that we’re giving out nominations to a show as mediocre as Ray Donovan. And also sad that this means Dean Norris got left off the list.

Supporting Actress in a Drama: 4/6 (Froggatt and Headey beat out Baccarin and Monaghan in my predictions. Baccarin’s lack of a nomination—coupled with Damian Lewis’ lack of a nomination, signals how much Homeland is officially out of the running this year. And Monaghan’s lack of a nomination is a surprising upset for True Detective, which might prove that Game of Thrones is still the HBO drama to beat in the long run).

Actor in a Comedy: 4/6 (I always felt wary about giving a slot here to Andy Samberg, but I never would have guessed that his slot would go to Ricky Gervais. Gervais’ work in the incredibly disappointing Derek is nothing I ever would have thought to see on an Emmys nomination list, but the Emmys has always had a bit of a love affair with Gervais so I guess I shouldn’t be THAT shocked. Also, William H. Macy manages to get nominated for the first time for his work on Shameless thanks to that show decided to submit as a comedy this year instead of a drama. The show didn't fair better elsewhere in the Emmys, but at least they nabbed a nomination for their main star).

Actress in a Comedy 6/6 (Not much to say here. Amy Poehler better win).

Supporting Actor in a Comedy: 5/6 (Wow, the Emmys have really gone off of Modern Family, with it scoring only two nominations in this category. I’m very surprised Eric Stonestreet didn’t make it, and I’m MORE surprised that Fred Armisen did. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s wonderful, but…really? If a performer from a sketch comedy show had made it here, it really really really should have been Key or Peele).

Supporting Actress in a Comedy: 3/6 (This category is really worrying for Orange is the New Black—of the four incredibly strong actresses who submitted themselves here, only one was actually nominated. That ruins my ballot, but also bodes poorly for the show as a whole, since so much of the appeal is the supporting cast (although, luckily, this show cleaned up in the guest actress category, scoring nominations for Uzo Aduba, Laverne Cox, and Natasha Lyonne). Combined with Eric Stonestreet’s lack of a nomination, Sofia Vergara’s lack of a nomination here also insures that Modern Family’s Emmy run is pretty much over. And while I am not all that surprised that Anna Chlumsky made it here, I am surprised at the other two nominees. Allison Janney—a fellow Kenyon grad, so whoooo alma mater pride—is an amazing actress but I didn’t think Mom had enough buzz to allow her to get a nomination in such a competitive category, but I was proven wrong-- plus, she's nominated twice this year, as she also scored a nomination for her guest star work on Masters of Sex. And while I am shocked to see Kate McKinnon get a nomination here, I am so happy she has. She’s incredible and is easily the standout performer of SNL at this point. She, Aidy Bryant, Bobby Moynihan, and Taran Killam could basically do the show themselves at this point.

Other categories:

Best Guest Actress in a Comedy: Speaking of Laverne Cox, she makes history as the first transgender Emmy nominee. Her success, and the extent to which her star has risen, is a wonderful example of how transgender performers can easily find success in this business when given an opportunity. The lack of well-known transgender actors doesn't have to do with their lack of talent or the fact that they don't exist, it has EVERYTHING to do with the attitudes of those making film and television. Hopefully Cox won't be an anomaly and we'll see more transgender artists appearing on lists such as this.

Best Supporting Actor- TV Movie/Miniseries: Really? Alfred Molina got nominated for The Normal Heart? What? He’s good in the movie, very good, but, what? The role he plays, as crucial as it is, is just not an award-worthy role. His nomination here proves that The Emmys are so ready to give The Normal Heart all of the awards (while this award probably will go to Matt Bomer, and I’m not complaining about that, for me the standout performance in the film was absolutely Joe Mantello, who out-acts the entire cast in one single scene).

Best Supporting Actress- TV Movie/Miniseries: Interesting that Julia Roberts in The Normal Heart is going up against Ellen Burstyn, who played that role in the Broadway Production and who was SO much better than Roberts was. Roberts was good, but Burstyn was show-stopping.

Outstanding Animated Program: The Simpsons has not been nominated in this category for the first time since the category’s inception. Pretty shocking. Even more shocking is that its spot was taken by Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. While my guess is that Futurama will take it home, I’d love to see Bob’s Burgers win it, although their submitted episode—“Mazel Tina”—doesn’t strike me as the series’ best entry from this year. But, the big news is that, for the first time, Archer managed to get a nomination! This is big! I had hoped this would happen but didn’t think itwould, and I’m so excited!

Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series: It is an absolute crime that Rian Johnson is not nominated for directing the Breaking Bad heavyweight episode “Ozymandias.” The direction was jaw-droppingly gorgeous and I had just assumed it would show up here (although it was nominated for writing, it seems likely that Emmy voters will just heap all of the praise onto the finale episode “Felina.”) I’m also sad that the brilliant episode of The Killing entitled “Six Minutes,” which I’ve praised multiple times already, failed to make it in this category, where I actually thought it might have a shot.

Writing for a Variety Series: While I’m sad that it didn’t fair even better, I’m so glad to see Key & Peele nominated in this category. So deserved. A win is highly unlikely, but so glad this show has gotten at least some Emmys recognition (they also got nominated for Best Makeup for their brilliant East/West Rap, and for Outstanding Musical Lyrics for their superb Les Mis parody).

Outstanding Structured Reality Show: If Guy Fieri wins an Emmy then I will stop watching television. It’s that simple.

The Square, a documentary that was released by Netflix, received a few nominations. It was also nominated for Best Documentary at The Oscars, which makes it, I believe (I could be totally wrong), only the second program to be nominated for both an Emmy and an Oscar (the first is The Twilight Zone, which won awards for writing at the very first Emmy ceremonies, and had one of its episodes—“An Occurrence at Owl Creek Bridge”—win the Best Live Action Short Oscar.

For everyone who wonders why Community still didn’t get nominated, relax, it did! Community was nominated for Outstanding Stunt Coordination for a Comedy Series or a Variety Program! Pssh, and people said that this show couldn’t get the recognition it deserves.

So, based on these nominations, what will win for Best Series? We, of course, can’t say. But, often the key lies in Editing. Consider the Oscars—since 1981, every film selected for Best Picture has been nominated for Best Editing (and around two thirds of the Best Picture winners have won the Best Editing award to boot). I’m not sure if such a correlation also exists at the Emmys. But, I will say this. Breaking Bad and Orange is the New Black each scored three out of five nominations for best editing in the drama and comedy categories respectively.

Share your thoughts on the Emmys in the comments!

Give Them a Chance! 10 Deserving Shows The Emmys Will Probably Ignore

Anyone who knows me knows that I am obsessed with the awards shows. It's no coincidence that this blog started at the beginning of Oscar season. And, as we grow closer to the announcement of Emmy nominations (on July 10th) I'm very excited, and filled with knowledge about which shows have buzz and which shows don't. Who are the frontrunners, who are the long shots?! It's all very exciting, and I've already made my predictions for the nominees in the drama and comedy categories.

As someone who constantly tries to predict awards show results, I truly find the odds-making side of it all fascinating. But, I always make it clear that the analysis of who WILL get a nomination has nothing to do with quality. When I say, for example, that The Big Bang Theory is a lock in the Best Comedy category, that doesn't mean I like The Big Bang Theory (I do not, but that's a blog post for another time). As with any awards show, the Emmys should never be viewed as an accurate litmus test for what really is the best that television has to offer. Consider that Breaking Bad didn't win best drama series until last year. Consider that The Wire-- generally considered one of the greatest series ever made-- never received an Emmy. Further consider that Two and a Half Men has nine Emmys. Nine. Nine.

Charlie Sheen was nominated for his work on Two and a Half Men four times. Four. Four.

Needless to say, the Emmys are subjective. While some outstanding shows will always be given attention, not every show is going to be a Homeland or a Veep. Some outstanding shows are always going to fall through the cracks, and they Emmy nominees are never going to be perfectly in line with the nominees at the annual "Things Miles Purinton Likes Awards."

I got this award especially for The Big Bang Theory.

So, I've decided to discuss some of the shows that the Emmys shouldn't, but will most likely ignore when nominees are announced. Here, in no particular order, here are the ten shows which deserve Emmys consideration...but probably won't get it. And, I'll give you a hint, The Big Bang Theory is not on this list.

What's that? I should stop picking on The Big Bang Theory? Is it frustrating that I'm making the same mean-spirited joke over and over again? YEAH. THAT WOULD BE ANNOYING. AND THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT THE BIG BANG THEORY HAS DONE FOR SEVERAL SEASONS NOW.

Review

Outside of The Daily Show and The Colbert Report, Comedy Central has never been much for Emmys attention, and their sitcoms typically don't come into play at all. But, the network has proven to have some surprisingly innovative programming in the past few years. Of its new comedies, Broad City is the one most likely to find some Emmys love, after it received nominations at the Critics Choice Awards. This is unlikely-- so unlikely that I didn't even mention the show in my Emmys predictions-- but if Comedy Central gets ANY consideration for its scripted programming this year, it will be for that series. Which means no room is left over for it's new series Review-- possibly the most underrated gem of the year. In the show, Andy Daly-- a comedian who has guest starred in pretty much everything and finally gets a leading role here-- plays Forrest MacNeil, a reviewer who embarks on a great experiment to review life experiences (as opposed to things like art or food). He chooses which life experiences to review based on viewer queries and typically tackles three per episode. It sounds like a fun and quirky premise-- perfect to have each episode remain unconnected and generally fun. But..as the show goes on, a sense of continuity creeps in and, as an audience, we see an overarching plot. The gimmick of the show's premise is just that-- the show is not about the reviews at all, it's entirely about this main character, and an examination of how this tv show slowly ruins his life. It's deliciously black comedy at its best-- dark, awkward, and often just plain weird. It's not going to be everybody's cup of tea, but what it sets out to do, it does really well. Daly manages to be endearing in his portrayal of a hapless asshole, and gives what is certainly one of the most committed performances in the history of comedy.

Andy Daly, in a print ad for Review.

I really enjoy the show-- much more than I expected to. I would go so far as to say it is the most meticulously crafted season of comedy I've ever seen outside of Arrested Development (and fans of that show should DEFINITELY check out Review). The show is funny, yes, but it's also incredibly insightful and actually really heartbreaking. You become invested in these characters. The show has been renewed for a second season, and I couldn't be happier...but in some ways I almost wish it wasn't because the first season was such a perfect little gem and I don't want to risk the second season not being as good. That's how great this show is, for me. I simply cannot imagine a second season being as good as the first-- but given how much the first season surprised me, I can only imagine what the second one will do.

While it was one of my favorite shows of the year, it's too cerebral and unconventional to have ever been at play for best comedy series-- so I'm not even going to pretend like it has any chance in that category. But, there is one particular award that it unabashedly deserves: Best Writing. The show only submitted one episode for consideration in the writing category, and while the whole show is impeccably written, their selection-- the third episode, entitled "Pancakes, Divorce, Pancakes,"-- is absolutely the standout of the series. Seriously, even if my gushing has not swayed you to watch the whole series, you should watch this episode. It's like what Dante would have written if one of the levels of the Inferno was a sitcom about a man eating pancakes.

Actual quote from either Review or Purgatorio.

And-- slight spoiler here-- Review features the single most surprising character death that I have ever seen. Forget Game of Thrones, I actually had to rewind Review to make sure that what I saw had really happened. It's amazing. Best death in a comedy series since Denholm Reynholm.





Key and Peele

Speaking of Comedy Central, another standout of the network's recent programming is the sketch comedy series Key and Peele. Written by, starring, and named for its stars Keegan-Michael Key and Jordan Peele, the show has always been funny, well acted, and at times incredibly insightful. But, while the first two seasons were great, the third season which aired this past year was nothing short of incredible. Either Key and Peele finally found the show's true voice, or they were given more creative control by the network, or a combination of these things, but the show absolutely surpassed its already high standard. Not only was the show even funnier than before, but Key and Peele pushed the boundaries in a more adept way than any other series I've ever seen. I feel like in comedy, many comedians try to tackle difficult subjects, and frankly fall flat on their face. But what makes Key and Peele remarkable is that they do not mistake edginess for humor. They deal with what, for many, would be taboo subjects, ut they do a few things that a lot of risque comedian (cough cough Seth MacFarlane cough cough Daniel fucking Tosh cough cough) fail to do. For one thing, they are always informed-- they clearly have done their research and treat the subjects with the respect and weight they deserve. As Saturday Night Live, the undisputed top show int he sketch comedy world has come under fire in the past few seasons for what many perceive to be much weaker and less weighty sketches than what the show has aired in the past, Key and Peele has proven how sketch comedy can truly be an exciting and relevant medium. It's pretty standard for sketch comedy shows to be deemed "hit and miss," but I honestly cannot think of a single "miss" in this third season of Key and Peele.

Key and Peele satirize Les Miserables.

There are a few things that make Key and Peele stand out. For one thing, they always, always, always "punch down"-- meaning the punchline is at the expense of the bully rather than the victim. They have so many amazing skits, but the one that best demonstrates what I'm talking about is this skit which is inspired by, of all things, the shooting of Trayvon Martin. Were anyone else, and I mean ANYONE else to attempt to find comedy in this, I would run screaming, but Key and Peele make a genuinely funny and respectful skit. And I could share with you a seemingly endless number of good skits-- from the spot-on parodies, to the beautifully awkward, to the just plain funny-- but I highly recommend you watch the whole season. Some of their best skits are not released on their youtube channel.

So, what should it be nominated for, other than every single award ever? Definitely Outstanding Variety, Music, or Comedy Series. Despite its critical acclaim, clearly high level of quality, high production values, and two stars whose celebrity is thankfully growing more and more, it's unlikely that the show will be able to enter that field of nominees. Aside from SNL, no sketch comedy show has been nominated for this award since In Living Color back in 1990. The category prefers to nominate talk shows and awards shows, so it's hard to see Key & Peele breaking into this category. But...it actually does have a long shot chance. The third season has already garnered multiple awards-- including a Writer's Guild Award and a Peabody. Even if it doesn't get the Outstanding Variety Series nomination it deserves, it might just gain a nomination in one of the more minor categories. Sadly, it's even more unlikely that Key & Peele themselves will gain nominations. While sometimes the Saturday Night Live cast members manage to sneak into the Best Supporting categories, it would be miraculous if Key or Peele were to manage this feat, despite the fact that they pretty much hold the entire show on solely their shoulders. But, they're really incredible. Their performances are versatile-- unlike in most comedic duos, the pair alternates playing the straight man and a wide variety of numerous wacky characters, meaning both have the opportunity to give what are probably some of the most brilliant comedic performances you can find. Jordan Peele's performance in their downright strange Continental Breakfast sketch from the Halloween episode should, in my opinion, be more than enough to earn him a nomination.

ACTING!

Face Off

And now for something completely different-- let's talk about reality shows. The reality show categories are interesting. Added to the ceremony as the genre continued to grow more popular, at first, it was shockingly predictable. The Amazing Race won the Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Reality-Competition Program the first seven years of the category's existence before it finally lost to Top Chef. andt looked as if The Amazing Race's domination was over...until it then proceeded to win again for the next two years. But last year, it lost for the second time in the category's history-- this time to The Voice. So this is an interesting category to watch-- has The Amazing Race finally lost its "favorite" status, or will it regain it with another victory this year? It could really go either way. But even as the category becomes more interesting, the nominees remain astonishingly boring. This category has the least amount of diversity out of any category in Emmys history. The nominees for the past two years have been exactly the same, and in eleven years with fifty-five different slots for nominees, there have been only ten nominated shows total. Of those ten nominees, nine have been nominated multiple times (the only series to only be nominated once was Last Comic Standing in the category's second year of existence). Part of this is due to the longevity of so many of these programs-- The Apprentice is the only nominated show that is not still regularly on the air. The Apprentice is off the air, right? Please, lord, let that show be off the air.

No witty caption needed. This man is already a joke. BAZINGA!

Because of this predictability, it's incredibly tough for a show to break into the small group of nominees-- especially a show with a relatively small audience. But I have recently become a fan of the Syfy Channel's competition Face Off. For those who don't know, it follows the format of more well-known shows like Project Runway and Top Chef where a group of contestants with a certain occupation compete in challenges to see who is the best at that skill. But instead of fashion design or cooking, Face Off deals with movie makeup. And while Top Chef will always be one of my favorite shows ever, Face Off comes close to being my favorite show of this style. The competitors are all incredibly talented, the judges are likable, articulate, and knowledgeable, and the challenges are wonderfully creative (bring a Dr. Seuss character to life, create a demon based on an unusual phobia, etc.) But, to the show's biggest credit, it KEEPS THE ATTENTION ON THE TALENT. The contestants rarely have drama and rarely have conflict-- in fact they often go out of their way to help each other out. It's refreshing, and highlights what I like about these types of shows in the first place. On the heels of an especially strong season, it deserves not only a nomination, but a wider audience.

One of the incredible makeups from Face Off-- inspired by the fairy tale Peter Peter Pumpkin Eater

Archer

The television show Archer has been one of the most consistent animated shows on the air-- and one of the most consistently ignored. Much like the reality categories, this category has seen a lot of repeat nominees over the years, and so it's going to be tough for Archer to ever crack this category. But when one considers that The Simpsons has literally been nominated for this category every single year it has been eligible, one has to wonder why this deserving show can't gain a nomination. After all, it's a well-known fact that The Simpsons has declined drastically in quality over the years. Archer, on the other hand, has the fresh voice and edginess that made The Simpsons so popular when it was first on the air. Now, Archer has not been completely ignored by the Emmys. It has a single nomination-- for H. Jon Benjamin in the category of Outstanding Vocal Performance. But, after his one time nomination, he has yet to be nominated again, and as the show became more outrageous, it continuew to be left off of the Emmys' radar. There's nothing to suggest that trend won't hold true this year to, but if any season of the show deserves to put it in the runing, however, it's this one. Creator Adam Reed reportedly just got bored with the show's premise of having the characters work in a James Bond-esque secret agency, and decided to spend the entire season having the same exact characters deal with a literal ton of cocaine. In other words, the entire premise of the show changed for one solitary season. It was a massive risk, and it paid off-- and is certainly one of the strangest and most satisfying experiments a show has ever done. That risk-taking should absolutely be rewarded if the Emmys wishes to stay current.

Also, one of the characters randomly decided they wanted to become a country singer. It was a weird season.

The Americans

Fun fact: I have never seen The Americans. I'd like to, but...there's, like, a lot of television to watch and I don't have enough time to watch all of it. But, nonetheless, it so epitomizes the types of incredible shows that fall through the cracks at the Emmys that I HAD to include it. I have only heard incredible things about this show. Everyone has only heard incredible things about this show. It's supposed to be great. Last year, it garnered considerable Emmy buzz for its first season, and a lot of people saw it being a serious Emmy contender. It ended up garnering only two nominations-- one for guest star Margo Martindale, and one in the hotly contested category of Outstanding Main Theme Music. It was certainly a disappointing showing for a series which had its eyes set on multiple major awards. This year, it's being mentioned again as a possible contender-- but I'm going to risk my reputation as a blogger and say that The Americans will once again be shut out of the Emmys race. Not because it's not deserving-- from everything that I've heard it is-- but because it's really hard for a series to capture the attention of the Emmys if it didn't already have it. While there are a few exceptions (like Friday Night Lights, which didn't get major Emmys attention until its final season, when the Emmys rushed to honor the show seemingly to apologize for forgetting about it all those years beforee), most Emmy darlings receive nominations in the major categories in their very first season and then coast from there. For example, even though Breaking Bad didn't become an awards juggernaut until later in its run, Bryan Cranston was nominated for the show's very first season, meaning that Breaking Bad didn't have to fight to earn its place at the Emmys later in the show's run. Similarly, a one-time Emmy darling that suddenly loses its nomination can find it very difficult to regain it. A great example is the show Justified-- after a stellar second season, the show seemed to be in the Emmys' good graces. But what some saw to be an uneven third season meant that the following year, it didn't really get anything at the Emmys-- it's only major nomination was in the Guest Actor category (for Jeremy Davies-- who actually won the award that year). Then, the show's fourth season was acclaimed, but the huge drop in awards recognition between season 2 and season 3 meant that it now has significantly less buzz than before, and probably has lost its contender status forever. I predict that The Americans is, sadly, also going to be doomed to constantly being on the outskirts of the Emmys' attention. I call it the Fringe curse-- during every single year of that series' run, columnists insisted on pretending the show had a chance at Emmy recognition even though it failed to get any consideration every single year. And The Americans might have the same fate-- as long as it stays at the same level of quality, The Americans will always have slight Emmy buzz. But until its following increases significantly, I think it's doomed to always be on the sidelines.

Keri Russell and Matthew Rhys in a scene from The Americans maybe. Like I said, I've never seen the show. Is this what it's like?

Hannibal

This show is the reason there's a clause in the SAG-AFTRA contract that says you're not allowed to eat your castmates.

The drama categories have become pretty much exclusively a category for the cable channels. While networks like CBS, NBC, ABC, and FOX still do well in the comedy categories, their dramas have been losing out to HBO, Showtime, and AMC consistently for the past few years (I don't count Downton Abbey, as even though that's a network drama, it's on PBS...which just feels different, right?) The past two years, the general thought has been that the only network drama with a chance at breaking into the field of nominees is The Good Wife, and that hasn't been nominated for the past two years. This year, it has a chance to gain major awards consideration again after what pretty much everyone seems to agree was an exemplary season...but the fact remains that it's the only network drama anyone's really talking about. Which is a shame, as NBC's Hannibal remains the best drama on television that simply no one is watching. A stylish thriller, Bryan Fuller's series about the titular notorious cannibalistic killer is hauntingly beautiful to watch, and as emotionally draining as the very best that the cable channels have to offer. Ignored in its first season, the second season has really upped the ante and has become astonishingly fast-paced and brutal-- maybe this might make the Emmys take notice? It is one of the most visually striking dramas of recent memory, and certainly deserves mention in the technical categories at the very least. I'd also love to see the cast get mention. Last year, I thought that Hugh Dancy should have been nominated for his work as the profoundly sad Will Graham-- and he's still wonderful, but, this year, I'm putting my hopes behind Dr. Lecter himself-- played by Mads Mikkelsen. Mikkelsen portrays Hannibal as ruthless, intelligent, sly, and not without a dose of really bizarre humor. It's a performance that stays with you, and certainly carries more weight than, say, last year's winner Jeff Daniels in The Newsroom. A nomination for Mikkelsen is unlikely, but I can hope.

Actual line from the show, guys. Gore and puns-- who could ask for anything more?

I'd also really love a guest star nomination for Broadway veteran Raul Esparza, who brought new life to the boorish Dr. Chilton-- a rather one-dimensional character in his previous incarnations, who Esparza managed to make a formidable and fascinating presence.


 The Killing

I have already written on this blog about my love for The Killing, so please follow that link if you want to read my complete analysis on why this show is so good, and so unappreciated. The third season was well-received by critics but due to its release nearly a year ago, and the baffling stigma against the show, it's not likely for this show to make it into the Emmys' graces. But this show, and especially the superb cast should absolutely get recognition. Mireille Enos was previously nominated for her work as Sarah Linden, and she deserves the nomination again. Her co-star Joel Kinnaman is similarly deserving, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that somehow the impossible will happen and newcomer Bex Taylor-Klaus will gain a nomination for her performance as Bullet-- a new character introduced in the third season who will break your heart. But the most deserving actor this season-- and the only one who really has a (very slight) chance at getting one this year-- is Peter Sarsgaard, who does what I think is the best work of his career. Sarsgaard is known for playing creepy roles, and this role certainly has his signature creepiness-- but it is also incredibly heartfelt and devastating. Sarsgaard has started to get some notice for his work-- including a Critics Choice nomination-- but he's still a longshot at the Emmys. Still, I'm going to keep my fingers crossed.

Peter Sarsgaard talks to Mireille Enos in The Killing

 
In addition to the cast, I think that the show had some really powerful episodes which deserve some recognition. Showrunner Veena Sud absolutely deserves a nomination for her incredible writing for the episode "Six Minutes"-- an absolute stand-out that was my single favorite episode of television this year (yes, including Breaking Bad's "Ozymandias"-- as sad as I am to say that). And Silence of the Lambs director Jonathan Demme would, in a just world, be nominated for directing the episode "Reckoning." This season proved that, despite what everyone else says, The Killing is/was one of the best dramas out there, and it's a shame that it features little to no buzz going into the Emmy season.



Orphan Black

Last year, the greatest injustice that the Emmys committed was not nominating Orphan Black's star, Tatiana Maslany. Maslany is not-so-secretly the best performer on television right now and has won overwhelming critical acclaim and numerous accolades. And it's not hard to see why. For one thing, her role in the show is incredibly ambitious-- in the first season she portrayed a total of six different characters. But the fact that she plays different roles is not what makes her performance impressive-- what makes it impressive is just how well Maslany rises to this task. These characters not only have completely different accents, but they're all immediately recognizable in their physicality. There's one moment, for example, where one of Maslany's characters named Allison has to pretend to be another character named Sarah. Because Maslany plays both roles, it could have been incredibly confusing--
not only is there no physical difference between the two, but in this particular scene, the character is SPECIFICALLY ACTING LIKE ANOTHER ONE. Yet, because of how well Maslany has defined these characters, Allison is immediately recognizable, even when she is acting like Sarah. To those who haven't seen the show, this explanation might be confusing, but...just trust me. Maslany's amazing.

Even though Maslany was snubbed last year, it is actually possible that she will get a nomination this year-- her exclusion last year is generally seen as a mistake, and while she's certainly not a lock for a nomination, it's not beyond the realm of possibility. So, while she might be destined to be forever ignored by the Emmys, we might just see her break into the field this year. But...I think the show itself deserves some recognition too. All anyone talks about is Maslany, but the show has other merit as well. It's well-written, and has the potential to be one of the truly great science fiction series. And while Maslany's performance is definitely the standout for good reason, I must say that I am also impressed by her co-star Jordan Gavaris, who plays Sarah's half brother Felix, and it's a shame that his name is not mentioned along with Maslany when people discuss the superb acting in the show. Granted, he only plays one role, but he plays it very well.

Tatiana Maslany, Tatiana Maslany, and Tatiana Maslany in Orphan Black

Community

Community has always had a troubled relationship with the Emmys...meaning that it hasn't had a relationship with the Emmys at all. Even as The Big Bang Theory has infuriatingly become an Emmys shoo-in (are you impressed with my restraint in waiting so long to mention that show again?), the internet-beloved but little-watched series has always come up short during awards season despite its fans high hopes. In its history, the show has garnered only a single nomination-- in the Outstanding Writing category for the brilliant episode "Remedial Chaos Theory." It doesn't help that right after the show finally got that nomination and might have had a chance to pick up some awards momentum, it went through a disastrous fourth season due to the absence of showrunner Dan Harmon. Now that Harmon is back, the show is mostly back in its audience's good graces, but most would agree that this season is far from the show's best work. In other words, if it didn't get nominations for, say, season 2 or 3, then it really doesn't have a chance of getting one here. And while I don't think that this season has been its absolute strongest, the fact remains that Community is one of the most interesting and innovative shows on the air. And, while it has been picked up for a sixth season by yahoo.com, it's unlikely that Yahoo will fight to give the show any chance at all at the Emmys next year, so this really is the show's last chance. It features an incredible ensemble cast, many of whom would be deserving of nominations, and consistently takes risks which other nominated shows really do not do at all. As groundbreaking as it pretends to be, Emmy-darling Modern Family has gotten, frankly, really boring. And that's putting it lightly. I mean, how many lessons can Ed O'Neill's character learn about acceptance?

Jonathan Banks and Danny Pudi in the episode "Bondage and Beta Male Sexuality," one of the best episodes of the show's fifth season.

Parks and Recreation

To be fair, this show will most likely get SOME Emmy attention. Amy Poehler is a consistent shoo-in as a nominee, and maybe her Golden Globe award indicates that she might finally receive that well-deserved Emmy. The show was also nominated once for Best Comedy Series, and has been nominated for writing and, interestingly enough, has quite a few nominations for sound editing (so, when you watch the show, consider how well edited the sound is). So, considering that this show HAS gotten Emmys attention, how can I say that this show is ignored? Well, as I previously mentioned, it's incredibly difficult for a show to gain Emmys attention after it has lost that attention. Last year, the nomination for Amy Poehler was the only one the show received and so it is unlikely for the show to make the jump back into the Best Series category. And, unfortunately, while the show had a really fantastic season this year, it wasn't as strong as the season 4 story arc where Leslie Knope (Poehler) ran for City Council. If that season failed to get a nomination, it's, sadly, hard to imagine this season getting one. But this remains one of the best shows on the air. It deserves to once again join the ranks of the best comedy series, and-- much like with Community-- the ensemble supporting cast really needs recognition. Nick Offerman has created one of the most iconic breakout characters of television's golden age with his portrayal of Ron Swanson, Adam Scott is consistently incredible as Leslie's awkward and endearing foil. I was holding out hope that perhaps Rob Lowe might gain a nomination as a guest star this year, after his character left the show in the middle of the season. Unfortunately, Rob Lowe is a self-centered individual and submitted himself in the Best Leading Actor category, despite appearing in less than half the episodes of this season. So...yeah. No way he's getting that.

Rashida Jones and Amy Poehler as the very best of friends in Parks and Recreation

Anyway, those are my thoughts. What series do you think get overlooked by the Emmys all too often? What long-shot are you hoping will somehow earn a nomination? Let me know in the comments!

"HAHAHAHAHAHAHA NERDS ARE FUNNY! THEY'RE DOING THE VULCAN HAND SYMBOL! THEY ARE NERRRRRRRRRRRDS"-- director's commentary from the fifth season of The Big Bang Theory