Sunday, January 14, 2018

The Best Movies of 2017: Part 1

Yes, yes, I know what you're thinking. We're already halfway through January, 2018! What are you doing releasing an end-of-year list NOW, Miles? Well, as you may be aware, a lot of really great movies are only released at the end of the year so they're fresh in voters' minds come awards season, and it meant that I didn't want to release my list until I had seen certain titles. Like, I thought there was a good chance that Phantom Thread would make my list, so I didn't want to release it until I'd seen Phantom Thread. Then, I saw it, and absolutely hated Phantom Thread, so there you go. But I'm still glad I waited.

But, while I certainly saw enough movies this year to make one question my sanity, I sadly don't get to see everything. There might be some incredible movies that I didn't get around to seeing yet, or some great gems that I haven't even heard of.  In particular, this year, I wish I'd been able to see more of the foreign language films which are supposed to be wonderful but have either not been released in theaters in the States yet, or were only in theaters for two days and I missed them. I'm thinking of movies like Loveless, Foxtrot, and especially A Fantastic Woman which are supposed to be great and might have made this list if only I'd been able to see them. The same goes for the litany of fascinating-sounding films on the shortlist for Best Animated Feature which I also have not had a chance to see, such as Mary and the Witch's Flower. So of course bear in mind that this list can only take into account the films I've actually had a chance to watch.

Also, I should say that even though 30 seems like a lot of movies, this really is a rather select list, and there are plenty of movies that I liked quite a bit which still didn't quite make the cut here. And, as always, please look at this list with a grain of salt. This is not a definitive list, simply my personal preferences, which probably differ from yours. I don't mean to offend if your favorite movie of the year was left off of my list. Unless your favorite film of the year was the inexplicably popular Blade Runner 2049. Shots fired.

One final note before we continue: two years ago, an animated short film called World of Tomorrow was one of my favorites of the year, but I didn't include it because it wasn't a feature film. Well, the same animator, Don Hertzfeldt, has made a sequel to it called World of Tomorrow Episode 2: The Burden of Other People's Thoughts and it is brilliant. So, much like its predecessor, I'm not including it in my list, but I still encourage everyone to watch it because it's amazing.

Okay, onto my picks! As is my tradition, I'm sharing my list of top 30 films, and to start we're going to go through films #30 through #11.

#30: The Lure

To be honest, when The Lure ended, I sat there for a second thinking "What on earth did I just watch?" The Lure is a Polish goth musical about singing, man-eating mermaids, and is every bit as wild as its description. I had to include it on my list simply because I haven't seen anything else quite like it. Plus the whole thing is gloriously low-budget, but still goes all out with all its design, with lots of bright colors. It feels like The Rocky Horror Picture Show but with Polish mermaids, and if you're not rushing out to watch it right now then I don't know what more I can say to convince you to watch this glorious oddity.

#29: Loving Vincent


Loving Vincent made history as the first ever hand-painted feature-length animated film. I wanted to see it on the big screen just for that landmark achievement, and I'm so glad I did. This movie is simply stunning. The fact that it's painted is not a gimmick--it really does add to the look of the film and tells the story in a better way than it could have if the film had been animated any other way. Plus, I really liked the story. I didn't know much about the mystery surrounding Vincent Van Gogh's death, and the movie ended up being far more engaging than I had initially thought it might be. And seeing the actual Van Gogh portraits of all the characters in the film gave Loving Vincent my single favorite credits sequence of 2017. Come for the achievement in animation, stay for what is a really lovely film overall.

#28: Unrest

Documentaries still struggle to gain much audience recognition, but when they're done well they can provide some of the best film-viewing experiences of the year. In the film Unrest, filmmaker Jennifer Brea documents her experience living with Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, and reaches out to others with the condition. CFS is woefully misunderstood by the public, and the documentary does a great job of educating the viewer about what it's like to live with what can often be a debilitating condition. It's often difficult to watch, especially when you realize how often the clear distress of those with CFS is dismissed by the medical community, but it's a rewarding and important film that's currently on the Oscars shortlist for Best Documentary Feature. Which is no small feat given that it's the only film on that shortlist that was self-distributed, meaning that with no company advocating for its inclusion, it made the shortlist solely on its merits.

#27: Slack Bay

There was no shortage of weird films this year, but one of the weirdest must have been the French comedy Slack Bay. The movie's plot, as it were, follows the wealthy Van Peteghem family as they vacation in their summer home on the beach, and find themselves in the midst of a murder investigation when a bunch of tourists go missing (spoiler alert: cannibals are involved). But the plot is not important here. It's really director Bruno Dumont's chance to showcase the broad comedic talents of the film's impressive cast. It's beautifully shot, delightfully clown-like, and an utterly bizarre wonder.

#26: Thelma

Following The Lure and Slack Bay, we have another great and strange foreign language film showing up on this list. The Norwegian film Thelma follows religious teenager Thelma (Eili Harboe) who realizes that she's falling in love with another woman, which in turn unleashes potent supernatural powers within her. Director Joachim Trier has a deft hand behind the camera and tells the story in a truly surprising way. Thelma is a lovely supernatural thriller, and deserves far more recognition than it has received.

#25: Icarus

Given that they're typically not as high-profile releases, I'm sure there are many great documentaries that I missed this year (I've heard wonderful things about Faces Places), but my favorite documentary from 2017 that I have seen is Icarus. Filmmaker Bryan Fogel initially set out to make a documentary about steroid usage in athletics, and enlisted Russian scientist Grigory Rodchenkov to help him out. But the documentary takes a turn when Rodchenkov ends up being implicated in the Russian Olympic doping scandal. The film becomes a tense thriller as Rodchenkov flees to the U.S. with Fogel's help. Fogel stumbled into an absolutely incredible and vital story, and it should be essential viewing. The good news is, it's on Netflix! Watch it. It's riveting.

#24: The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)

I love quirky slice-of-life drama/comedies. And one of the leading filmmakers in this genre is Noah Baumbach. And yet, I have typically not been a fan of Baumbach's movies, and have always felt like something is lacking when I view his films. But I think that The Meyerowitz Stories is easily his best film to date, and features some pretty incredible work from its ensemble cast. Adam Sandler, Ben Stiller, and Elizabeth Marvel are all great as siblings who must navigate their father and their family dynamic later in life. Sandler gives what might be the best performance of his career, and had received early Oscar buzz which unfortunately seems to have died down. While he hasn't received as much hype surrounding his performance, I also thought that Stiller was really strong, and the film reminded me what a good actor he is. But Marvel steals the film for me. She doesn't get as much screentime as her brothers, but the work Marvel does is really remarkable, and I'm sad that she's not been singled out for her excellent work. This movie is worth seeing for Baumbach's excellent screenplay and for these three nuanced performances.

#23: Columbus

One of the best movies of 2017 that you've never heard of is Columbus, about the relationship between the son of an esteemed architect and an intelligent young woman stuck in Columbus, Indiana. Haley Lu Richardson and John Cho do wonderful, quiet work here, and the movie manages to be incredibly affecting even though it's decidedly unflashy. But the real breakout here is first-time director Kogonada. This film is so artistically shot in a way that you don't typically see in indies like this. I feel like Kogonada's perspective is very similar to Wes Anderson's, but set in the real world. There's none of the cartoony whimsy, but Kogonada also emphasizes use of color and symmetry, and clearly loves architecture. Columbus is great, and makes me excited for Kogonada's future films.

#22: Logan Lucky

Steven Soderbergh has proven time and time again that he knows how to make really great movies. Logan Lucky is hardly essential viewing, but it's a wild ride and a lot of fun. I love the action and the brisk pace in this movie, but even more than that, I love the colorful characters that populate this film (with Daniel Craig especially a standout as explosives expert Joe Bang, which is such a departure for him). I just had a blast watching Logan Lucky, and I'm surprised it couldn't make my top 20.

#21: Wonderstruck

Wonderstruck tells two stories of children wandering New York by themselves, each set fifty years apart. The film is far from perfect, and there are a lot of flaws I could point out, but I loved it because there are moments in this movie of genuine magic. As both of the film's storylines involve children, Wonderstruck does a great job of showing us a childlike sense of wonder, and succeeded in bringing me back to a childhood perspective. Also, the camerawork for both stories is beautiful, with the 1927 storyline featuring great black and white cinematography (not to mention a great performance from deaf actress Millicent Simmonds) and the 1977 storyline showcasing bright, judiciously used colors. Both Wonderstruck and the Scorsese film Hugo from years ago are based off of books by Brian Selznick. I was not a fan of Hugo, but I think director Todd Haynes handles the ambitious screenplay really well here, with a much more subtle hand that is needed to bring out the beauty in the story.

#20: Good Time

Good Time is a difficult film to watch, but there's one very good reason to watch it: Robert Pattinson. Pattinson has never before had such a great chance to showcase his considerable acting chops, and he is truly remarkable here, and gives one of the best performances of the year. The filmmaking here is unrelenting, and Good Time is as harrowing and memorable as its title is misleading.


#19: Last Flag Flying

Every year I see a film that has everything going for it to be a serious awards contender that then just kind of goes by unnoticed and I don't understand why. This year, that film is Last Flag Flying. No one is talking about the latest from prolific director Richard Linklater, but I think it's one of his best movies to date. Telling the story of three army buddies reunited later in life to attend a funeral, Last Flag Flying is a careful character study and reflection on grief and the past. The central trio of the film (Steve Carell, Bryan Cranston, and Laurence Fishburne) are all incredible, and there's also great work from J. Quinton Johnson as a young soldier, and the legendary Cicely Tyson who steals the movie with one scene. The work is so strong and it's a shame that these performances seem to be forgotten. At the end of the film, I learned in the credits that Last Flag Flying is based off of a book, which honestly shocked me because these characters felt so lived in that I just assumed they were original creations. Carell in particular gives what might be the best performance of his career.

#18: The Killing of a Sacred Deer

The Killing of a Sacred Deer is a brilliant movie. It's meticulously told and impeccably crafted. It's also incredibly disturbing and difficult to watch in one sitting. Many felt that director Yorgos Lanthimos' previous film The Lobster was a tough movie to watch, but The Killing of a Sacred Deer makes that one feel almost cheerful in comparison. But, as brutal as this movie is, it's powerful as long as you can stick with it. This revenge thriller is legitimately harrowing and succeeded in making me actually reconsider my thoughts about all the characters on the screen. Plus, the acting is amazing all around, with Barry Keoghan giving a truly powerhouse performance as a disturbed young man seeking revenge. It's not for everyone, and if you didn't like The Lobster then definitely stay away. But I'd actually say The Killing of a Sacred Deer is a better film than The Lobster. It's more cohesive, and while not for everyone's tastes, it's a bit of a storytelling marvel, and certainly one of the most memorable films of the year.

#17: Personal Shopper

Much like Robert Pattinson (whose great work in Good Time I've already discussed), Kristen Stewart became one of the most hated actors in the world after her work in the Twilight franchise. But she has proven time and time again that she's a really talented actress. Every time she turns in an amazing performance, I think that THIS is the one that's going to finally get her invited to awards shows. First, there was Still Alice, then there was Clouds of Sils Maria, and now there's Personal Shopper. From Olivier Assayas (who also did Clouds of Sils Maria), Personal Shopper tells the story of Maureen Cartwright (Stewart), an American woman living in Europe who is trying to connect with the spirit of her deceased brother Lewis. Anyone going into Personal Shopper expecting a traditional ghost story will be disappointed, but ghosts and the unknown are still a huge part of this film, which mostly utilizes a slow burn but can ramp up the tension beautifully when it needs to. Both is and Stewart deserve more recognition.

#16: Maudie

Sally Hawkins is expected to receive an Oscar nomination (and possibly the award itself) for her work in The Shape of Water this year. And she was great in that movie, but it was actually not her best performance of the year. She does even better work in Maudie, a biopic of arthritic Canadian artist Maud Lewis. I went into this film knowing very little about the life or work of Maud Lewis, and was quite taken with the sweet underdog story of the unlikely art sensation. Hawkins is incredibly endearing and plays the understated Lewis with a strength that could have easily been missing in the hands of a lesser actress.

#15: Lucky
  
If you are unfamiliar with the work of the late, great Harry Dean Stanton, watching Lucky will make you understand just what a talent was lost this year. Stanton plays the titular character in Lucky, and while he couldn't have known this would be his final role, he couldn't have picked a more fitting one to go out on. Lucky is an aging atheist in the South, facing his own mortality. Not much of note happens in Lucky, but the character study of Lucky is a wonderful one and Stanton makes every frame worth watching. And prolific character actor John Carroll Lynch proves he's more than capable behind the camera, getting great performances out of the whole ensemble. A quiet and philosophical film, it's impossible not to love Lucky--the movie or the character.
 
#14: The Florida Project

One of the most acclaimed films of the year, it is a testament to how many good movies there were this year that The Florida Project can't make my top ten. Focusing on the lives of impoverished children in a project right outside Disneyworld, The Florida Project is incredibly emotional and frequently heartbreaking. The movie doesn't exactly portray young Moonie (Brooklynn Prince) or her single mother Halley (Bria Vinaite, who was discovered through instagram) in a positive light, and yet you root for them and understand innately the impossible situation they're both in. The film is bleak, and at times unbearable, which is enhanced by the brilliant production design. Director Sean Baker uses a lot of pastel, "happy" colors and bright lights to jarringly contrast the dismal world the movie resides in. It's simultaneously volatile and quiet, and understandably one of the standout films of the year.

#13: Ingrid Goes West

I had no idea what to expect when I went into Ingrid Goes West. But given that it starred Aubrey Plaza, I thought it would be a comedy. I certainly did not expect such a tense drama which offered a rather blistering commentary on social media culture. Plaza stars as Ingrid Thorburn, a woman who seemingly conflates instagram with the real world, and believes the "social media influencers" she follows on instagram are her real life friends. When she schemes her way into the life of insta-star Taylor Sloane, Ingrid's deception leads her down an increasingly precarious path to both hide and discover her true self. Plaza has often been criticized for being a limited actress, and that all of the roles she plays are just versions of her breakout Parks and Recreation character April Ludgate. anyone who believes this needs to see this movie. Plaza is outstanding, and manages to make Ingrid far more sympathetic than one could ever expect, playing her with complete confidence and without pity. This is a really smart screenplay, and Plaza manages to elevate the already strong material she has to work with.

#12: The Shape of Water  

Masterful director Guillermo del Toro is known for his amazing visuals, and The Shape of Water has the gorgeous look we all expect from him (if you like this film's aesthetics, check out the wonderful film The City of Lost Children, which I think inspired a lot of this movie). But what really stands out to me here is the story, and The Shape of Water's place in del Toro's filmography. Guillermo del Toro's early work is frequently very dark, and his significant imagine runs wild, creating unparalleled works of ingenuity. But, once his talent was noticed in the States, he became a popular director who now had bigger budgets, but had to answer to studios. I really like all of Guillermo del Toro's films, but I do think that in his more recent works he's had to work against constraints placed on him by producers looking to market his films, and that his considerable vision has been perhaps limited due to this. In The Shape of Water, I think we see a polish that is missing from del Toro's more recent works, as if he has finally found the balance needed to make his own vision soar now that there are audiences he must answer to. It's an exciting new chapter in del Toro's filmography, and it's always exciting to see such vision and wonder on the big screen.

#11: The Big Sick

Given how insightful and hilarious Kumail Nanjiani's stand-up comedy is, it's no surprise that The Big Sick is as great as it is. Nanjiani co-wrote the screenplay for this rom-com with his wife Emily V. Gordon, and it tells the rather incredible story of the beginning of their relationship. The real life romance at the center (with Nanjiani playing himself and Zoe Kazan stepping in for Gordon) is wonderful, but this movie is really about family. Specifically about dysfunctional families. Specifically about the special variety of love that it takes to hold a dysfunctional family together. But perhaps what I love most about The Big Sick is that it depicts a relationship that we rarely see on film even today, but still manages to feel like a typical heartwarming romcom (albeit, several steps above most in quality). It shows that the cultural differences we perceive are in fact universal, and that's the type of message we need to see in American film during the current presidential administration.

This is a list of 20 amazing movies. So, which films did I like even more? You can read part 2 here!

Thursday, December 14, 2017

Nomination Predictions for the 90th Academy Awards

For those who don't know, I was in grad school this past year, and that means that I've not had any time to maintain this blog. Sorry to my loyal readers! But, the good news is that now that we're in December, it's time for my annual overly-detailed analysis of the movie awards circuit! Time for me to spend hours poring through data to determine predictions which will ultimately be about 60% correct! Are you as excited as I am?!

This has been an exciting year for film, with some truly breakout movies emerging. I haven't had a chance to see everything I want to this year, but I must say this is the first year I've genuinely really liked all of the Awards-buzz movies that I've seen so far. That's pretty rare. Usually there are a few prestige films a year which I find to be kind of "meh," or even downright bad. But, this post is not about my personal opinions (although, don't worry, those will certainly be shared in about a month's time). This post is about what we can expect to see when the Oscar nominations are announced on January 23rd. It's certainly an unpredictable awards season. The Oscars famously ignore horror movies, comedies, and anything that's altogether too weird, but this year, some of the frontrunners that have emerged fit those categories. So, let's dive into this unusual Oscars season, and see who I think are the contenders in some of the major categories this year!



BEST PICTURE:
Armie Hammer and Timothée Chalamet in Call Me by Your Name, an early Oscars favorite.
DEFINITE:
Call Me By Your Name
Lady Bird
Get Out
The Shape of Water
The Post

If any of these films don’t make it into the Best Picture race, it’s going to be a bit of a shock, as all have a good amount of critical acclaim, and have been doing quite well at the awards leading up to the Oscars. Although it hasn’t been released yet, The Post has been getting strong reviews, but even if not, any film directed by Steven Spielberg and starring Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks is bona fide Oscar fare. Call Me By Your Name had been my early pick to win the award up until it missed out on a SAG nomination for best cast, as no movie has won Best Picture at the Oscars without being nominated in that category for over twenty years. But it's still a shoo-in for a nomination, as the coming-of-age story/romance is both crowd-pleasing enough to gain mass appeal, but artsy enough for the often pretentious Oscar crowd. The Shape of Water, meanwhile, looks like it might be the first film directed by Guillermo del Toro to score a Best Picture nomination, and the Oscars love to recognize an auteur director for one of the more polished films of their career (as they did with Wes Anderson’s Grand Budapest Hotel a few years ago). The other two entries on this list are particularly exciting because they’re not the typical Oscar fare. The Oscars famously doesn’t like comedies, so the fact that there’s so much love for the exquisite Lady Bird is really heartening. Especially as the industry grapples with the tide of sexism so ingrained in it, I think that a woman’s directorial debut which features women in all of the more prominent roles is the perfect movie for this year’s Oscars. And then if there’s a genre the Oscars dislike more than comedy, it’s horror, but Get Out has been riding a wave of acclaim ever since its release earlier this year. It’s such an amazing movie, which entered the national consciousness in a truly exceptional way. Get Out and Lady Bird are not the types of films the Oscars usually responds to, but given how much popular and critical success both films have, if they don’t earn nominations it will be a serious oversight on behalf of the Academy.

SOLID BETS:

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Florida Project
Phantom Thread
Mudbound
Dunkirk

Even with the larger nomination list, this category always ends up being quite crowded. And these are all films with enough merit behind them to argue that they have a serious shot at a Best Picture nomination. Although, while I think all five of these films have a good chance of earning a Best Picture nomination, I think it’s unlikely that all five will, given how difficult it is for the Oscars to have ten nominees in this category. Phantom Thread seems like a good bet, teaming up Oscar favorites Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Day-Lewis, but since it hasn’t had a wide release yet, it’s tough to really know what the reaction will be to it, and whether it will buoy or muddle its Oscar chances. Mudbound has all the hallmarks of an Oscar winner, and features an insanely strong ensemble cast, but the Oscars has not proven receptive to films produced by Netflix in the past, outside of the documentary category. Remember when it snubbed Beasts of No Nation? I think Mudbound has a shot at a Best Picture nomination, but the resistance to the streaming service is real and might hold it back. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Florida Project have both been really acclaimed, but Three Billboards doesn’t have the same overwhelming support as some of my more definite bets, and The Florida Project is struggling with momentum—too many good films have come out since its release which have muddied the attention it initially received.. As for Dunkirk, Many would argue it’s one of Christopher Nolan’s best films, but it had an early release which means it has lost momentum since its release. Also, the strength of Dunkirk is that it has a wide scope and ensemble, but its lack of distinct memorable characters won’t help Oscar voters remember the film as a whole come awards time. It’ll definitely be nominated for technical awards, but Best Picture isn’t assured.

DARK HORSES:
The Big Sick
Darkest Hour
Molly’s Game
The Disaster Artist
Downsizing
I, Tonya
All the Money in the World
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

It’s already a crowded field, but there are a few movies which might sneak into the nominees. The Big Sick and The Disaster Artist are two well-reviewed comedies that would need to rely on popular appeal to score a nomination. I, Tonya is in the awards discussion for its performances, which means that it’s already a part of the Oscars conversation, so perhaps it can piggy-back off that buzz to a Best Picture nomination (although that didn’t work for Jackie last year). Darkest Hour hasn’t had the overwhelming critical support that the producers probably hoped for, but it still feels so much like Oscar-bait, that it might sneak in on principle. Downsizing, Molly’s Game, and All the Money in the World haven’t been released yet, so like Phantom Thread, the reaction to them might help their chances, but all have enough of a pedigree behind them that they might be on the radar soon. Lastly, Star Wars: The Last Jedi doesn’t really have a chance, but given how it’s bound to generate excitement, you never know, it might make it into the race as a longshot.

My predictions: Call Me By Your Name, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, The Post, Phantom Thread, Mudbound, The Florida Project, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri


BEST DIRECTOR:
Guillermo del Toro overseeing a scene from The Shape of Water
DEFINITE:
Guillermo del Toro—The Shape of Water
Luca Guadagnino—Call Me by Your Name

Everyone loves Guillermo del Toro, and this looks like his year to finally score a Best Director nomination, especially as The Shape of Water is one of his more polished films thus far. Meanwhile, even after a disappointing showing in the SAG Award nominations, I think that Call Me by Your Name is an early Best Picture favorite, which means that Guadagnino in turn would have the best shot at a director nomination, as the direction of that film has often been touted as a strength. Things will certainly become clearer after the DGA nominations are announced, but since I'm writing this before those nominations, these seem like the two most reliable bets so far.

THE PRESTIGE FAVORITES:
Steven Spielberg—The Post
Paul Thomas Anderson—Phantom Thread
Christopher NolanDunkirk
 
As soon as these projects were announced, all three of these names entered the Best Director race. They’re all big enough names that the Oscars has to pay attention. And all three films have had a strong enough reception that they’ve remained in the conversation. The prestige alone puts them in the conversation, and the quality of their work keeps them there. That being said, these three directors aren’t infallible. Paul Thomas Anderson’s last film, Inherent Vice, was mostly ignored by the Oscars, and Steven Spielberg himself missed out on a director nomination for his last big Oscars picture, Bridge of Spies. And then there’s Christopher Nolan, who has never been nominated for Best Director. Does that make him overdue? Or will the Oscars continue to ignore him?

THE ROCKSTAR NEWBIES:
Greta Gerwig—Lady Bird
Jordan Peele—Get Out
Dee Rees—Mudbound
Aaron Sorkin—Molly’s Game

Gerwig, Peele, and Sorkin are all recognizable faces in entertainment, but all of them are making their directorial debuts. And while Dee Rees has directed films before, none of them have made quite as big a splash as Mudbound. So we have four (relatively) new directors with films in the Oscar conversation. This is especially exciting when we consider that, aside from Sorkin, these are all relatively young directors. And, more excitingly, none of them are white men. As the Oscars has been perpetually criticized for diversity, it would be such a shame if these directors were all shut out in favor of the three white men mentioned in my “prestige favorites” category. Frankly, I feel that Gerwig and Peele deserve better odds than they seemingly have given the sheer fanbases of their respective films, and I’m especially rooting for Dee Rees, who I think demonstrated the best direction of the year, and would just so happen to be the first woman of color to receive an Oscar nomination for directing.

A GOOD SHOT:
Sean Baker—The Florida Project
Martin McDonagh—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Much like the respective films they directed, Baker and McDonagh’s chances here widely depend on just how strong the awards support for their acclaimed films ends up being. I would certainly not count either of them out, but it’s hard to know whether to underestimate or overestimate these films’ chances. McDonagh especially has a sleeper chance of making it into the running, considering the film's strong showing at the SAG Awards.

UGH PLEASE NO:
Denis Villeneuve—Blade Runner 2049

This movie does not deserve any Oscars, as far as I’m concerned. But apparently some people think that Villeneuve will score a nomination for his follow-up to the far superior film Arrival. So I’m mentioning him. But I really don’t see it happening. I know a lot of people liked this movie more than I did, but even so, it was SUCH a box office disappointment, that it’s hard for me to imagine the Academy taking any notice.

My predictions: Guillermo del Toro, Luca Guadagnino, Jordan Peele, Greta Gerwig, Steven Spielberg

BEST ACTRESS:
In which I make the bold and unheard of declaration that Meryl Streep might get an Oscar nomination, this time for The Post
THE STRONGEST BETS:
Sally Hawkins—The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Saoirse Ronan—Lady Bird
Margot Robbie—I, Tonya
Meryl Streep—The Post

An impressive lineup, this category seems to be the most set in stone. Hawkins, McDormand, Robbie, and Ronan have all received much acclaim for their respective films, and any could potentially win (although a frontrunner will likely emerge as the awards season goes on). The unknown here is Streep as, again, The Post hasn’t been released yet, and she's the onle one here who failed to earn a SAG nomination. But, it’s never wise to bet against Streep, especially at the Oscars. This category seems pretty cut and dry.

SPOILERS:
Annette Bening—Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Jessica Chastain—Molly’s Game
Judi Dench—Victoria & Abdul
Vicky Krieps—Phantom Thread
Diane Kruger—In the Fade

But the Oscar nominations are always filled with snubs and surprises, and this category is not immune. Hell, Sally Hawkins herself was seen as the favorite to win Best Actress several years ago for Happy-Go-Lucky and didn’t even gain a nomination. If someone sneaks into the category, it will be one of these five actresses. Bening probably has the best shot, depending on how much of a campaign producers put forward for Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool, although Krieps might be able to ride momentum depending on how Phantom Thread does. If the Academy responds to Molly’s Game, that of course helps Chastain’s chances, while Diane Kruger’s Cannes-winning performance might translate to a performance as long as voters actually see In the Fade. Lastly, there’s Dench playing Queen Victoria, which you’d think would be a match made in Oscar heaven, but the lukewarm reaction to the film as a whole, as well as the already crowded category considering the number of strong women-lead films, has dropped her out of the conversation. Although the SAG Award definitely boosted her chances.

I CAN DREAM:
Kristen Stewart—Personal Shopper

Kristen Stewart is so good. Personal Shopper is the latest in a string of excellent performances from her that would have scored a nomination for most other actresses. Given that Robert Pattinson also has a potential (if not likely) Oscar nomination in the works, it would be really great to see both Twilight stars deservedly redeemed by the Academy this year. But, it’s really unlikely.

My predictions: Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Margot Robbie, Saoirse Ronan, Meryl Streep

BEST ACTOR:
James Franco, transformed into Tommy Wiseau in The Disaster Artist
 DEFINITE:
Timothée Chalamet—Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis—Phantom Thread
James Franco—The Disaster Artist

Chalamet is the breakaway frontrunner in this category, and the newcomer seems poised to win out over several heavyweights here. The chief among them is Daniel Day-Lewis, who won an Oscar for his last film with Paul Thomas Anderson, and will likely score another nomination this year. The surprise here is James Franco, whose strong work in The Disaster Artist as the worst actor of all time has really paid off. He had initially been seen as a potential upset nominee, but his odds have improved steadily as he picks up nomination after nomination, and now an Oscars showing seems all but assured.

YEAH SURE WHY NOT:
Tom Hanks—The Post
Gary Oldman—Darkest Hour

I have not seen The Post or Darkest Hour yet, but both of their lead actors definitely have Oscar buzz surrounding them. And I’m sure both are very good, but the buzz around their nominations does seem to have an air of resignation to it. Of course the Academy is going to nominate Tom Hanks for his Steven Spielberg historical drama. And of course the Academy is going to nominate Gary Oldman for playing Winston Churchill. But, that very inevitability is what might work against them. These are performances that seem to be well-liked as opposed to genuinely exciting. You shouldn’t bet against either of them getting a nomination, but the list does seem ripe for an upset. Especially considering that Darkest Hour is otherwise not creating much buzz, and Hanks failed to score a nomination for his last Spielberg Oscars drama.

NOW THIS WOULD BE INTERESTING:
Daniel Kaluuya—Get Out
Robert Pattinson—Good Time
Adam Sandler—The Meyerowitz Stories
Harry Dean Stanton—Lucky

All four of these nominees would be far more exciting than either Hanks or Oldman’s nominations. Pattinson scoring a nomination might be little more than a pipe dream of mine, as while his performance in Good Time deservedly earned rave reviews, that acclaim doesn’t seem to be translating into actual accolades. Similarly, Adam Sandler had a lot of Oscar buzz surrounding his career-best work in The Meyerowitz Stories, but that has failed to materialize this awards season. Then there’s Harry Dean Stanton, who gave his final film performance in Lucky, and who might be given a posthumous nomination for his strong last hurrah. But the most likely spoiler here looks like Daniel Kaluuya. When Get Out first premiered, everyone was talking about Jordan Peele, and deservedly so as Get Out is very much his vision. But in comparison, there wasn’t as much fervor about how fucking great Kaluuya is in this movie. Get Out is the rare horror movie where the hero is actually more interesting than the villains (as good as the villains are), and Kaluuya’s work shows strength, fear, and vulnerability in equal turns. Especially with a SAG nomination under his belt, it would be nice, and not inconceivable, to see Kaluuya sneak in under the wire here.

SOME FAINT BUZZ:
Jake Gyllenhaal—Stronger
Christian Bale—Hostiles
Denzel Washington—Roman J. Israel, Esq.

And then there are these performances. Neither Stronger or Hostiles has gained much Oscar buzz in any category outside of Leading Actor, which means that neither performance can ride on much momentum. But, both performances are acclaimed and they could easily upset here. Lastly, there’s Washington, who I would not have even considered a possibility if not for his surprising SAG nomination. But, I’m content enough to think of the SAG nomination as an aberration—people do not like that movie enough for him to really be a contender.

My predictions: Timothée Chalamet, Daniel Day-Lewis, James Franco, Gary Oldman, Daniel Kaluuya

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Mary J. Blige says goodbye to Jason Mitchell, both of whom are receiving buzz for their work in Mudbound
DEFINITE:
Laurie Metcalf—Lady Bird
Allison Janney—I, Tonya
Mary J. Blige—Mudbound
 
GOOD CHANCE:
Holly Hunter—The Big Sick

Mothers seem to be the big theme of the year here, as all four names I’ve just mentioned here seem destined for the Oscars this year, and all four exist in the film in relation to their child. Metcalf, Blige, and Janney have nominations practically sewn up, and Hunter seems like a strong bet, but perhaps not as assured. As great as she is in The Big Sick, her chances are helped less by her performance, and more by the fact that there seems to not be a lot of competition in this category. Which means that the fifth spot seems almost up for grabs.

WHO THE HELL KNOWS:
Hong Chau—Downsizing
Tiffany Haddish—Girls Trip
Octavia Spencer—The Shape of Water
Lesley Manville—Phantom Thread
Carey Mulligan—Mudbound
Kristin Scott Thomas—Darkest Hour
Lois Smith—Marjorie Prime
Kirsten Dunst—The Beguiled

The favorite amongst most pundits seems to be Octavia Spencer, but I’m not buying it. Spencer is obviously great, but her performance in The Shape of Water is not the film’s best, nor anything close to her career best. It’s good, but nothing I would deem Oscar-worthy. If she gets a nomination, it’s a show of support for the movie as a whole rather than her individual work. There’s much stronger work from Carey Mulligan in Mudbound, who definitely has a shot, but does seem to be overshadowed by her co-star Mary J. Blige in the awards conversation. If I’d put money on anyone, it would be Lesley Manville, whose chances might go way up once Phantom Thread is released. But again, this one really is a crapshoot and several performances I’ve mentioned here might sneak in. There especially seems to be support for Hong Chau, who many think is the standout performance in Downsizing, the otherwise unbuzzed about film from usual Oscar favorite Alexander Payne. And her SAG nomination The real surprise here is Tiffany Haddish. It is always unwise to bet on a broadly comedic performance for Oscar glory, but Haddish has become a breakout star with Girls Trip and has already won and/or been nominated for numerous awards by various critics. The Oscars are not out of the question for Haddish, but while I’d love to be more confident (and, frankly, should be more confident given the attention she’s received) I’ll believe it when I see it.

My predictions: Laurie Metcalf, Allison Janney, Mary J. Blige, Holly Hunter, Lesley Manville

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project is the only sure bet in this scattered category.
DEFINITE:
Willem Dafoe—The Florida Project

Dafoe has been the only consistent name on the awards circuit in this category. As the only famous face in the film’s cast, he also is the best chance for the Academy to show love to this indie darling.

PROBABLE:
Sam Rockwell—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Stuhlbarg—Call Me by Your Name
Armie Hammer—Call Me by Your Name
Jason MitchellMudbound
 
Mudbound has been having a bafflingly inconsistent awards run so far, with some ceremonies showering it with praise, and others ignoring it entirely. But where it’s recognized, it’s consistently recognized for its cast, and along with Mary J. Blige, Straight Outta Compton star Jason Mitchell has been identified as a standout. Similarly, Sam Rockwell has been having a good run with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and it looks likely that he’ll gain his long overdue first Oscar nomination for the film. And then there’s Call Me by Your Name. Armie Hammer should really be entered as a lead (and, frankly, I think he should be getting the buzz instead of Chalamet) but since he’s entered in the supporting category, you’d think he’d be a lock given the film’s acclaim. But, surprisingly, the awards ceremonies seem to be consistently recognizing Michael Stuhlbarg’s performance in a significantly smaller role instead. Then again, not only does Stuhlbarg steal the movie in one scene, but that scene is nothing but Stuhlbarg sitting on a couch talking. He’s great, and I honestly hope that both actors from the film can be recognized here.

UPSETS:
Richard Jenkins—The Shape of Water
Woody Harrelson—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Tracy Letts—Lady Bird
Ben Mendelsohn—Darkest Hour
Ray Morgan—Mudbound

It’s always dangerous to set anything in stone, and if there’s an upset, it’s going to be one of these five, all of whom do really strong work in films that have Oscar buzz for other performances. Stuhlbarg beats Letts in the “quiet fathers in an acclaimed coming-of-age story” narrative, and Harrelson’s performance has been forgotten by the Three Billboards producers campaigning for Rockwell. It’s shaky how much the Academy is going to respond to Darkest Hour at all, but if they’re paying attention, maybe they’ll also notice Mendelsohn, and Richard Jenkins does wonderful work in The Shape of Water and could ride that film’s momentum (as well as his surprisingly SAG nod) to a nomination. Lastly, there’s Rob Morgan. No one is really talking about him, and I probably have no business putting him on this list, especially since he’s competing against co-star Jason Mitchell. But, while Mitchell gives one of the best performances of the year, Morgan’s is even better, and I found him to be the single most standout member of Mudbound’s excellent ensemble cast. I’d love to see him and the film get more recognition than expected.

My predictions: Willem Dafoe, Sam Rockwell, Michael Stuhlbarg, Armie Hammer, Jason Mitchell

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Get Out has awards buzz for its screenplay early on, and that buzz has since transformed into Best Picture buzz as well.
PROBABLE:
Lady Bird
Get Out
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

SPOILERS:
The Post
The Big Sick
The Florida Project
The Meyerowitz Stories
Downsizing

What a fucking incredible category. This year featured numerous amazing original screenplays, with films that pushed boundaries and defied conventions. The word “original” in the category means simply that the script is not based on other material. But many of the screenplays this year were original in a grander sense. The five screenplays I listed as probable seem to be the five most likely candidates, but I could easily see The Florida Project sneaking into the nominations. I also expect that most of The Big Sick’s Oscar campaign is going to be based around the strength of its screenplay, and I imagine it would have better chances in a year where the field wasn’t so strong. Then there’s The Post, whose screenplay seems to be less noticeably strong than many of the other contenders here, but is the kind of historical Oscar bait that the Academy often recognizes over more unconventional work (see the win and nomination for The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything). Lastly, we have The Meyerowitz Stories and Downsizing, which shouldn’t be counted out if only for the fact that Noah Baumbach and Alexander Payne are often recognized in this category by the Academy.

My predictions: Lady Bird, Get Out, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Me, writing about the Adapted Screenplay category, as opposed to the Original Screenplay category.
DEFINITE:
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Mudbound

MEH:
Molly’s Game
The Beguiled
Logan
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
First They Killed My Father
Last Flag Flying

This is a far weaker category than Original Screenplay. I don’t even have much to say about it. The most exciting thing is that because of how weak the category seems to be, it opens up the possibility for a lot of surprising picks that the Academy might not otherwise recognize. I’d love to see Logan score a nomination for example.

My predictions: Call Me by Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Mudbound, Molly’s Game, Logan

 
All my predictions aside, there's of course a chance that all the nominations will actually go to Boss Baby.

So, there you have it! My predictions in some of the Oscars' most prominent categories. What do you think? Are there movies and performances you think have a better chance than I'm giving them? Or are there predictions here which you think I'm dead wrong about? Let me know in the comments!