The Best Movies of 2018: Part 1

As we all bade adieu to 2018, there's an overwhelming sense of relief. Thank goodness that awful year is over! And, I agree. On a global level, 2018 was not exactly a good year. But I have to say that, in the world of film, 2018 was the best year in a while. There were SO many excellent films this year. And I know this because if I compare the forthcoming list of my 30 favorite films of 2018 to my Top 30 lists for the past three years, it's shocking how much better this year's films are. My pick for #30 this year would easily make it into the Top 20 at least in any of the previous years. Even films that didn't make my list at all this year could have made it into the Top 20 in previous years! The general quality of film in 2018 was unbelievably high. So, please, if you haven't seen the films on this list, check them out. Even as the world crumbles around us (and perhaps because of it), film as an art form is going strong.

Also, as always happens with these lists, I need to include the caveat that I haven't seen every film released in 2018. I watch a lot of movies—a LOT of movies—but it’s impossible for me to see everything. This year, I feel like I saw most of the titles that I was interested in, but you never know. Considering that every year there are multiple obscure films that blow me away, it’s always possible that my favorite film of the year is one I’ve never even heard of. There are also many 2018 films that simply haven't gotten a theatrical release yet and therefore it has been impossible for me to see them. This includes Oscar-shortlisted foreign language films like Never Look Away, Birds of Passage, and Ayka, and intriguing indie animated films like Tito and the Birds, and Ruben Brandt, Collector. Last year, I had to publish my list before films like A Fantastic Woman and The Insult had been released in the U.S., and they would have been high on my list had that not been the case.

All that said, I stand by all of the excellent films on this list and am proud to present them as my Top 30 of the year. Starting with…

30: The Guilty

There are few film gimmicks as satisfying as the limited setting. We now have many examples of films where the camera is limited to mostly one room or location (Alfred Hitchcock popularized this with films like Rear Window and Rope), but it always feels fresh and original. This is partly because it's an incredibly difficult gimmick to pull off, so it forces a filmmaker to adapt in new and different ways. It's also because, without elaborate set pieces, it forces a film to generate interesting characters to drive the plot. The Guilty is a perfectly executed thriller which uses its limited setting not as a hindrance, but as a benefit; utilizing a single office space for the entirety of the film gives the audience a sense of claustrophobia which adds significantly to the tension. The film follows Asger Holm (Jakob Cedergren), a disgraced police officer who been demoted to answering emergency dispatch calls while awaiting trial. The cocky Asger is clearly disinterested in his new assignment, but that changes when he receives a call from a kidnapped woman in distress by the name of Iben (Jessica Dinnage). Using limited information, and not being able to leave his desk, Asger tries desperately to save Iben and figure out the details of her kidnapping. It's truly edge-on-your-seat stuff, and the mystery at the film's center is satisfying and well planned out. Director and writer Gustav Möller doles out information to the audience at a perfect pace, never feeling like he's coyly holding back, while also not giving too much away at one time. I also have to say that the cast is excellent. Cedergren conveys a lot as the stoic Asger, and portrays him as a character we can root for even if we don't like him very much. But the film soars due to the quality of its voice-over performances. Everyone Asger speaks to on the phone sounds utterly believable, and the authenticity of their performances is what makes the movie so compelling. I didn't realize until after the movie had ended that we never even see Iben because I could visualize her so perfectly due to Dinnage's performance. The Guilty recently made the Oscars shortlist for best foreign language film, and there's been an announced American remake starring Jake Gyllenhaal. Honestly, that's already an impressive legacy for a film made on a shoestring budget film from a first-time film director. But after seeing The Guilty, the appeal of the film is immediately apparent. It's really impeccable filmmaking.

29: Jinn

It's still so rare to see movies about being a Muslim in America. And films that do examine the lifestyle of the modern American Muslim tend to either offer a watered-down view, or go to extremes in depicting the worst examples of Islamophobia. That's why Nijla Mu'min's debut feature is such a triumph. Jinn doesn't shy away from discussing the discrimination that Muslims face in the United States, but that's also not what the film is ultimately about. It's a touching coming-of-age drama that also feels like an honest portrayal of Muslims as opposed to a sensationalized one. The film follows Summer Jennings (Zoe Renee), a young girl who is surprised by her single mother's conversion to Islam. Her mother, Jade Jennings (Simone Missick), is a popular local weather woman, who struggles with how her colleagues and fans will accept her new religion which has brought much fulfillment to her life. Throughout the course of the movie, Summer and Jade come to terms with what their religion means to them, and what they mean to each other. The central relationship between Summer and Jade is a beautifully defined one, and marks Mu'min as a storyteller with a clear and vital voice. It's exciting to see groundbreaking films like Jinn get made at all, but it's especially satisfying when they're this good.

28: Eighth Grade

Often, the best films are the ones that transport us to another world. Be it a fantasy world, a far off land, or another era, the feeling of being immersed in another place or time is a gift that movies can give us. Eighth Grade, the directorial debut of comedian Bo Burnham, almost immediately transports its audience to the endearing and awkward world of Kayla Day (Elsie Fisher). While there are plenty of films about high school life, we rarely see media about middle schoolers. This might be because 30-year olds can't play middle schoolers, but it also might be because that's a really awkward time in most people's lives and few want to revisit it. But Burnham forces us to dive back into the harrowing days of eighth grade headfirst. The awkwardness is made bearable by Fisher's winning portrayal of Kayla, which is easily the most delightful performance of the year. We know we're seeing Kayla at a difficult time in her life where she doesn't know who she is or how she relates to the world. But what Burnham's film makes immensely clear is that Kayla is ultimately going to be okay. We know she'll make it through this because we all somehow did. Burnham is a wonderful comedian and Eighth Grade is frequently hilarious, but when I reflect back on Eighth Grade, the humor isn't what stands out to me. It's this film's tremendous heart.

27: The Hate U Give

Multiple films in 2018 deal with tensions between Black Americans and police officers. While other films take an understated approach and address the project more artistically (Blindspotting and Monsters and Men come to mind most prominently), The Hate U Give is the one that addresses this delicate topic most directly and clearly, and that alone makes it one of the most essential films of the year. The Hate U Give is adapted from a YA novel, and its source material origins are readily apparent, leading to the emotional beats being (with a few notable exceptions) fairly predictable. But that predictability doesn't take away from their impact. It's impossible to watch this film without feeling emotional, and The Hate U Give shows unparalleled bravery in its storytelling. Despite its heavy subject matter, it's a shockingly accessible film. And while the point of the film is primarily to make a statement, it is still character-driven. Russell Hornsby in particular creates one of the best characters of the year with his portrayal of Maverick Carter, a protective and powerful father and reformed gang member. In a just world, both Hornsby and the film as a whole would be on everyone's radar for awards season, but even if it doesn't pull in the accolades it should, this film's legacy will leave an impact for a long time to come.

26: The Tale

I was on the fence about including The Tale on this list because it's a TV movie. But it's also not just any TV movie and, considering it was originally made to be released in theaters and competed at Sundance, I think it has merited its place on this list. I honestly don't understand how The Tale didn't sweep every television award out there, because this is one of the most groundbreaking films I've ever seen. Jennifer Fox's autobiographical film about the sexual abuse she experienced as a child is unbelievably powerful, and approached the topic in a way I've never seen in film before. It's raw, haunting, and brilliant. Fox ordinarily makes documentaries, and that journalistic approach has served her well here. I've rarely seen a director be so vulnerable from behind the camera, and the film she has made is staggeringly personal. It demands to be seen, discussed, and it will undoubtedly stay with anyone who watches it.

25: Nancy

Nancy came and went without much fanfare when it was in theaters, and that's a shame, because this is a really excellent little indie film. The consistently excellent Andrea Riseborough stars as Nancy Freeman, one of the oddest protagonists of 2018. Nancy is, on the surface, an incredibly unlikable character. Awkward, antisocial, and disdainful, she seems to only get pleasure from scamming and compulsively lying to people. One day, she sees a news segment about a couple whose daughter was kidnapped as a child. While Nancy has no particular recollection of this happening to her, something about the story seems to resonate with her. She's the right age, and looks eerily similar to the sketch of what the child would look like today, so she contacts the parents and meets with them. The film constantly makes you second guess your thoughts about Nancy and her motives. Even if you don't like her, she's fascinating and increasingly sympathetic, with Riseborough's performance bringing out unexpected nuance to the role. J. Smith Cameron and Steve Buscemi also do wonderful work as the grieving parents, whose mixture of optimism and caution upon meeting Nancy is truly heartbreaking. The smart screenplay constantly subverted my expectations, and combined with the outstanding ensemble cast, Nancy is one of the most underrated films of 2018 for sure.
 
24: Searching

As computer screens increasingly become the thing we as a society spend most of our time looking at, it makes sense that films are starting to delve into the computer screen as a storytelling gimmick. And gimmicky as it is, it can be incredibly effective when done well. Searching is not the first film to have unfolded as if we're sitting at a computer screen, but it is the best example so far, and the one that best mines the familiar setting for emotional depth as opposed to shock value. John Cho is wonderful as a father desperately searching for his missing daughter, and the subtleties of his performance and of the film-making make this mystery soar. Plus, the opening scene (which borrows more than a few pages from the opening of Up) could hold up on its own as a pretty phenomenal short film. Searching is exciting not only for its originality and excellence in its own right, but because it feels like a predecessor for even better films that are sure to come. It shows that the medium of film is continuing to evolve, which is always a good thing to be reminded of.

23: Cold War

In Cold War, the latest film from Polish filmmaker Pawel Pawlikowski, a music director named Wiktor Warski (Tomasz Kot) discovers a remarkable new talent in Zula (Joanna Kulig), a young and driven singer with a downtrodden past. He nurtures her talent, turning her into a star, and along the way, the two fall in love. And if you think this sounds like the premise of a DIFFERENT film from 2018 (perhaps an Oscar frontrunner starring Lady Gaga) then you're not wrong. On paper, the two films have a lot in common, but ultimately they're incredibly different. And not just because Cold War focuses on Polish mountain folk music instead of pop. Cold War is like a film from another time. And I'm not just saying that because it's a period piece (set during the Cold War, duh). The nostalgia element of Cold War goes beyond, say, having the costumes and sets be from the 50's. It really feels like it could have been made forty years ago. It's a movie that feels lived-in, a callback to the Golden Age of Hollywood and all the romance that era conjures up. And like the best films of that era, it's deceptively simple. Pawelowski is a master of minimalism. Most of the scenes of Cold War are very short, but convey an incredible amount of information in their briefness. In one or two lines, and sometimes even in just a glance, we learn everything we need to know. The black and white cinematography is lush, the music is sweeping and gorgeous, and the characters feel like they could have stepped into Rick's Café Américain had Casablanca been set in the Soviet Union. But despite all the lyrical glitz and glamor, Cold War also thrives when its undercurrent of sadness comes through. The title is laden with meaning, and the war serves as a constant backdrop for the story. Wiktor and Zula are very much two lost souls, constantly looking for meaning—in music, in Paris, in Poland, in themselves, in other people—and failing to find it. It's a bittersweet film that has been beautifully and delicately placed together. Despite its Chekhovian sense of melancholy, it's a delight to watch and experience.

 
22: You Were Never Really Here

A violent movie starring Joaquin Phoenix as a hitman sounds like it would be a badass action film. But anyone going into Lynne Ramsay's You Were Never Really Here expecting something akin to John Wick is bound to be surprised. Ramsay takes an action film premise and turns it into an arthouse wonder— methodical, brutal, and lyrical. As the film goes on it travels down paths no one would ever expect, devolving further and further from both reality and our expectations of cinematic form. Ramsay is one of the most underrated directors working today, and she is like an expert puppetmaster here, creating a disturbing cinematic elegy that is both beautiful and difficult to watch. Not everyone will love You Were Never Really Here, and I imagine some might even be repulsed by it, but the amazing way the film is put together demands to be admired. And at the center is our unlikely protagonist. Phoenix does quite possibly the best work of his career, turning his signature intensity inward to create a compelling character who feels more like an attack dog than a person, struggling with how to confront all that he has to repress in his line of work.

21: We the Animals

Much like You Were Never Really Here, my #21 pick is another difficult film to watch that comes together thanks to the wonderful ambition of its director. On a surface level, We the Animals is about a young boy and his brothers growing up in a broken household. But that description doesn't really do the film justice. It's not really a film about a story, it's more about the way the story is told. We the Animals reads like a cinematic poem, evoking feelings and emotions rather than simply depicting actions. It's abstract and experimental, but undeniably effective and easily ascends the ranks of the best films about childhood. It's always exciting when a film actually makes you feel a sense of pure wonder, but that We the Animals makes you feel that way amidst a gritty landscape of hardship is truly incredible. This is the first narrative feature from director Jeremiah Zagar, who previously made documentaries, and the use of documentary techniques blended with old fashioned movie magic makes this film feel wonderfully original and true. This ensemble cast is perfect— child actors Josiah Gabriel, Isaiah Kristian, and Evan Rosado are beautifully natural, and Raúl Castillo is a standout as their problematic but still sympathetic father.

20: Shirkers

In 1992, a young aspiring filmmaker in Singapore named Sandi Tan set out to make a movie with her friends. The film, called Shirkers, was unlike anything that had been seen in Singapore's fledgling film market before, and gained a certain cult following while it was still being shot. There was national buzz about the movie, and many anxiously awaited its release. But then, Tan's film professor, a charismatic American named Georges Cardona took all the footage to edit it together...and never finished the project. All the footage, along with Georges, were lost to Tan, and Shirkers joined the mythical ranks of unfinished films that are fascinating in their non-existence. 20 years later, some of the footage of this legendary shoot was rediscovered, and Tan took the opportunity to finally make Shirkers: but not the Shirkers she tried to make so many years ago. This documentary is exquisite in how difficult it is to categorize. It is a documentary about the making of this lost film, but it's also an act of personal discovery for Tan— a visual memoir looking at the lives of her and her friends at the time, and how they've all changed now. It's a movie about artistic expression and the creative process, and the struggles artists face in trying to bring their vision to life. There's an almost dreamlike quality to Shirkers that makes it as elusive as the non-film at its center. I'm trying to give as little information about Shirkers as possible because the joys of this documentary come from the unexpected twists and turns it takes. It's unlike any other film out there, and hopefully reannounces Tan as a filmmaker of note. Everyone should watch Shirkers, if only because you're unlikely to ever see anything quite like it, and that's a rare thing in any artistic medium.

19: Support the Girls

Support the Girls follows Lisa Conroy (Regina Hall), a manager at a bar called Double Whammies that is exactly what it sounds like. Lisa is hard-working and proud, a protective mama bear type who treats her employees like her own children and is desperate to maintain respectability in spite of the assumptions people make about her place of employ. You might not expect one of the most poignant films of 2018 to take place in a knock-off Hooters, but when you really think about it, it's kind of a fitting setting. Double Whammies is America— an institution built on misogyny and racism, now being held together by a woman of color who gives it far more of her energy than it deserves. In this way, Lisa is probably the most relatable character of the year, with her clear capabilities masking an inner desperation that is heartbreaking when it finally comes to the surface. Hall has been doing consistently great work for years, but she is an absolute revelation here, fearlessly leading a stellar ensemble all-around. An undeniably bittersweet film, it's strange to me that a film that features so much sadness ultimately feels triumphant. I think that Support the Girls has a lot in common with its main character. Like Lisa, this is a film that sees the negative and understands its consequences, but still exudes an automatic feeling of "everything will be okay" because it knows no other way to be. It's an unlikely feel-good film with a lot of hope and heart, and it's no wonder this little-indie-that-could has been included on so many best of year lists.

18: Border 

Blending fantasy with political commentary, the Swedish film Border, directed by Ali Abbasi, has one of the absolute best premises of the year. Border follows Tina (Eva Melander), a border agency guard left disfigured by a chromosome deformity. But while altering her appearance, this deformity seems to give Tina superhuman powers, such as being able to literally smell guilt on those passing through the border. Tina lives a quiet and unassuming life, but it becomes clear that not everything is as Tina believes after she encounters a suspicious man who looks exactly like her. What transpires is a modern day fairy tale that, like the best fantasy, uses mythology to make statements on our own humanity. Tina is a wonderful character, and it's thrilling to watch her journey towards self-discovery, even as that journey leads her down increasingly dark and repulsive paths. A wonderful and strange riff on a Beauty & the Beast-esque story, Border is gorgeous, wild (in every sense of the world), unforgettable, and worth seeing for the glorious character makeup and sound design alone.

17: Suspiria

One of my favorite films of all time is Dario Argento's 1977 giallo classic Suspiria. If you haven't seen it, it's difficult to describe, but it's a horror movie unlike any other. A technicolor nightmare, the film uses bright colors, a breathtaking and utterly bonkers score, and avant-garde cinematography to create a disorienting experience that makes it the most terrifying film I've personally ever seen. While perhaps not a title known by everybody, Suspiria has been one of the most influential films in the horror genre. For example, if you've ever seen a Guillermo del Toro movie, you've seen some of Suspiria's influence at play. Rumors of a remake have been floating about for years and we finally got one in 2018 courtesy of Luca Guadagnino. This was both one of my most anticipated films of the year, and one of the ones I was most nervous about. I really wanted it to be great, but worried it might fail to live up to the original.

While, for me, the original is still beyond comparison, I think that the 2018 Suspiria is a more-than worthy remake, which wisely doesn't try to recreate the unusual combination that made the original work so well and fills in the gaps on the original's flaws. Here, there's much more of a story, and Guadagnino's version makes more use out of the films' superb setting: a German ballet school run by witches. Rather than using the bright, zany colors that give the original its signature look, Guadagnino goes for a muted color palette that is striking and distinct in its own way. While more straightforward than the original, the new Suspiria succeeds in creating in its audience that wonderful feeling of being scared...but you don't really know why. Why do people keep fainting? What do these mysterious voiceovers mean? Who the hell is Helena Markos? Why does this old man act suspiciously like Tilda Swinton? WHAT IS GOING ON? AAAHHHHH! This is a film designed to set you off balance, and it's an exciting ride to take if you're up for it. There's a great twist towards the end of the film that I never saw coming but found incredibly effective. Plus, it features plenty of subtext and imagery that begs to be analyzed and analyzed without ever finding a definitive answer. It's an unforgettable film which, like its predecessor, I imagine will grow in esteem and become a cult classic in future years.
 
16: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

I truly think that Melissa McCarthy is one of the best actresses working today. She's a consummate performer who has consistently proven her versatility and excellence in a way that sadly doesn't get as much recognition as it should. There's a time-honored tradition in Hollywood of only respecting the craftsmanship of comedic actors once they prove they can also do dramatic roles, and so hopefully Can You Ever Forgive Me? will usher in a new age of respect for McCarthy. She plays the author Lee Israel, a biographer who, later-in-life, began forging letters from great literary figures to make ends meet, and discovered she had a knack for it. Israel isn't a particularly likeable character. She's cantankerous, unscrupulous, bitter and generally closed-off from those around her. But as portrayed by McCarthy, you root for her all the way. She's a surprisingly relatable character, an embodiment of the worst instincts that despair and hopelessness can lead anyone to act on. The film is as much about literature as it is about crime, and director Marielle Heller strikes a really nice balance between the two subjects. From the aesthetics to the writing, the movie has the feel of walking into a used bookshop— there's a distinct charm and feel to it that is deceptively cozy. Despite focusing on two unabashedly awful people— Israel and her partner-in-crime, lowlife criminal Jack Hock (Richard E. Grant)— the film somehow manages to be a "feel-good" film. It shows us moments of warmth and humanity even in the most artificial settings. The heart of the movie lies in the interactions between Israel and Anna (Dolly Wells, wonderful and underrated), one of the kind-natured booksellers that Israel dupes with her counterfeits. There's a sweetness to these interactions that is beautiful to watch. And yet, the sweeter these conversations get, they become more heartbreaking as we and Israel know the deception inherent at their core. The film perfectly walks this line, being sweet while always maintaining the criminal edge that prevents it from feeling cloying. It's a wholly unique crime film, buoyed by an excellent ensemble with McCarthy more than capable at the front.

15: The Old Man & the Gun

Throughout his relatively short career, director David Lowery has shown himself to be a master of both understatement and charm behind the camera. His strongest film to date is the wonderful The Old Man & the Gun, which stars Robert Redford in the true-life story of lifelong criminal and prison escapee Forrest Tucker, a bank robber who made headlines later in life as the ringleader of the "Over the Hill Gang," a group of elderly thieves. Tucker's story is a rather amazing one. Although he's a career criminal, police reports and witness interviews always noted his significant charm, and his frequent breaks from prison give him a sort of legendary quality. Lowery's film-making feels inherently nostalgic, and paints a perfect portrait of a genuine outlaw hero who belonged in another time. It's elegant in its simplicity. And, of course, the secret weapon here is Redford. It's hard to imagine a better match between actor and role than this. Redford obviously knows how to be utterly charming, but he also brings in an emotional depth and integrity to Tucker that you don't expect, so you grow to care about him immensely. I don't know if this will truly be Redford's final acting role as advertised, but if it is, it's hard to imagine a more perfect swan song for him. Much like Lowery's film A Ghost Story last year, there's an indefinable quality to The Old Man & the Gun that makes it unlike anything I've ever seen, and yet incredibly familiar, like wearing an old glove.

14: Beast

This British psychological thriller slipped mostly under the radar, which is a shame, because Beast is easily one of the most fascinating films of the year. It follows Moll Huntington (Jessie Buckley), an upper-class girl in Guernsey who falls in love with a mysterious stranger who has just arrived in town named Pascal Renouf (Johnny Flynn). There's only one problem: Pascal might be responsible for the rapes and murders of a number of young women in the area. Steady and atmospheric, Beast treats its audience to a slow-burn without ever feeling sluggish. It does this by focusing on Moll. Despite the inherent mystery surrounding Pascal, Moll is undoubtedly the more interesting character, and it's fascinating to learn more and more details about her as the film goes on. On top of a smart screenplay, the film succeeds on the strength of its two leads. Buckley and Flynn are both phenomenal, and excel at playing the dualities of their respective characters in a believable and thrilling way. Beast might not have been widely seen, but I am sure a promising career awaits both of its stars.

13: The House That Jack Built

There's no doubt that The House That Jack Built is the most controversial film on my list. News reports gleefully reported that it inspired massive walkouts at Cannes. In the glee of reporting on this, many articles hardly mentioned that the film also received a ten-minute standing ovation at the same festival. In other words...it's a Lars von Trier film. People are going to passionately hate it, and people are going to passionately love it. You can count me in the latter category. Firstly, to address the controversy surrounding the film, I feel like the reports of the movie's violence are overblown. Yes, it's a violent film, and yes, it is often incredibly disturbing. But I also didn't personally feel like any of the violence had crossed a line or was all that out of bounds from what I'd expect from a movie about a serial killer. (although, granted, I saw the edited version being released in the U.S. and not what was screened at Cannes). The reaction to the violence in the film reminds me of the initial reaction to Psycho; the film-making was so expert that people imagined violence that wasn't actually there. The vast majority of the violence in The House That Jack Built is psychological as opposed to physical, which makes the bouts of physical violence all the more effective.

The House That Jack Built is, quite simply, one of the best and most honest serial killer films ever made. Much of the credit for this is due to Matt Dillon as the titular Jack, who gives an exhilarating career-best performance as a brutal and calculating psychopath. One of the most reprehensible film characters of the year, Dillon is nonetheless compelling to watch, as over the course of the film he peels back the layers of this vicious killer. This is where I think The House That Jack Built divides audiences. It is a character study that tries to put us inside the mind of a serial killer, and that's a place no one truly wants to be. Von Trier is, as always, relentless, but this is also undoubtedly his most personal film, as he reflects on his own artistry through Jack's identity as a killer. And the film truly won me over in its epilogue. I don't want to give away a single thing about this epilogue or what happens in it, but it was shocking to me in a way that none of the preceding violence ever could be. It clarifies the film's intentions, and most bizarrely, offers a surprising dose of unequivocal beauty to accompanies an uncompromisingly grotesque film.

I certainly understand why The House That Jack Built has its detractors, and there are criticisms of the film that I think are valid. But I also think there's a genuine brilliance to this movie that demands to be recognized, and I hope that the divided reactions to the film lead to it being discussed as opposed to dismissed.

12: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Really great animated comic book adaptations have been difficult to come by. Since they're inspired by an established illustrative style, animated comic book films have often felt constrained by the pages they lift the story from. And the best animated comic book films tend to feel like someone just filmed their source material directly as opposed to really making an independent project (I'd propose Marjane Satrapi's excellent Persepolis as the good example of this). That's what makes the animation of Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse so ingenious for me. It simultaneously feels like a comic book and like a film in a way that I don't think any other movie has quite been able to balance. It wears its inspiration like a badge of honor but also develops a unique style of animation that is bright, bold, thrilling, and inherently cinematic. It's a stellar example of how animation can honestly accomplish things that live action can't. Towards the end of the film, reality starts to literally break down and the bright, neon splotches of color that take over the screen demonstrate this better than any CGI ever could. Animation as a genre is at a creative peak, but Spiderverse is truly some of the most original animation ever put to screen. Aside from its groundbreaking style, Spiderverse is simply a great film in all aspects. The storytelling is excellent. It's perfectly paced, and often meaningful and surprising (I don't want to give anything away if you haven't seen it but the Doc Ock reveal was one of my favorite film moments of the year). For a film with so many characters, you grow to genuinely care about them, even ones with very little screentime. A lot of this is due to the fact that this cast is absolutely stellar. Not only do they have a lot of star-studded names, but everyone gives it their all— it's a masterclass in voice acting. You get the sense that every single person involved in the process of making Spiderverse understood how special this project would be, and put extra care into their work. It's a gorgeous and wildly inventive film that I imagine will only continue to grow in prestige as its influence on the industry comes more into focus.


11: Cam

No film took me by surprise this year quite like Cam. I hadn't even heard of this sci-fi thriller before it was released on Netflix, but saw it had good reviews and an interesting premise so I decided to watch it. And while I am SO upset that this film didn't get the ad campaign its quality merited, it was also amazing going into it knowing nothing about it, and it absolutely blew me away. Madeline Brewer (of The Handmaid's Tale fame) stars as Alice Ackerman, better known as Lola_Lola, a career "camgirl," meaning a webcam model who performs erotic acts on a videofeed for money. For this film in particular, I don't want to give anything away, but, let's just say...it gets weird. It's like an episode of Black Mirror on steroids. Writer Isa Mazzei and director Daniel Goldhaber have created a true sci-fi nightmare, and they do so in sexy technicolor. The twists and turns of the story are beautifully executed, with moments of both visceral and psychological horror that are genuinely chilling. The aesthetics are also fantastic. It's clear that this film was made on a shoestring budget, but the inventiveness of the excellent cinematography and production design would never suggest it. But what truly elevates this film is Mazzei's screenplay and how it depicts camgirls. Mazzei is a former camgirl herself, which might explain why this is the best and most realistic depiction of sex work I've ever seen in film. The script doesn't look down on Lola or any of the camgirls, while also using its sci-fi premise to comment on how these women are exploited by their industry. And Brewer has never been better. She inhabits Lola and makes her a confident and resourceful heroine for our times. Cam is due to be a cult classic, and in a weaker year for film it would have easily been in my top 5. If you haven't seen it yet, go to Netflix and watch it now! You can thank me later.


In case you couldn't tell, I really loved all of these films. So which ten managed to beat them to gain my top spots for the year? Find out in Part 2! And let me know your thoughts on my picks so far in the comments!

A Guide to the 2019 Foreign Language Film Oscar

The movie awards season is starting to take shape, and while the "big" awards are certainly exciting (Lady Gaga! Viola Davis! Alfonso Cuaron! Orson fucking Welles!), this year the most intriguing category to me in the Oscars landscape is Best Foreign Language Film. This category never gets enough attention and that is honestly tragic. The nominees here tend to be among the absolute best films in any category, and this year there's an above-average number of contenders. Countries had to submit their Oscar entry on October 1st, and these are some of the most buzzed-about submissions in years. In a few months, these submissions will be whittled down to a shortlist, and then the final five nominees will be announced with all the other nominations, but it already guarantees to be a strong year. Below, I'm looking at 20 of the contenders for this award, so that you can get excited for them with me before their nominations.

It's worth noting a few things. For one thing, there are PLENTY of foreign language films that are great but don't get an Oscar nomination. This can be for a few reasons. Like in all categories, there are bound to be some snubs. Last year, one of the most hyped-about films, France's BPM (Beats Per Minute) failed to even make the shortlist. So like any Oscars analysis, my predictions could be WAY off. This is ESPECIALLY true for the foreign language film category which is decided upon by a bizarrely secretive and really small committee. Secondly, this category has a LOT of technicalities to its submission process, which have in past years left a lot of foreign language films with a lot of acclaim out of the running completely. Each country can only submit one film per year, which is a problem when a country has multiple prestige films at its disposal. Italy has a good pick this year with Dogman, but that means leaving out the Martin Scorsese-produced Happy as Lazzaro. France had several great options on its shortlist this year (including Gaspar Noe's Climax and Xavier Legrand's gripping drama Custody, my favorite film of the year so far) but somewhat surprisingly picked Memoirs of War, which has received mixed reviews and seems like a longshot. That's not even counting Olivier Assayas' acclaimed Non-Stop, which might have been a frontrunner had it not been disqualified on a technicality concerning its release date. And then there's Rafiki, an LGBTQ film from Kenya which was initially disqualified by the government for "promoting lesbianism." After a legal battle, the film WAS considered, but ultimately not chosen by Kenya as it's submission. I'm hoping the controversy will allow the film to find a U.S. distributor so we can all see and support this groundbreaking film. All of this is to say that the below list and analysis is just a small sample of what international cinema has to offer. See foreign films! They're great! And now, onto my analysis of the most buzz-worthy submissions to the Foreign Language Film category this year.

THE FRONTRUNNERS:

Film: Roma

Country: Mexico
What It's About: The life of a middle class family and its live-in housekeeper in Mexico City in the early 1970s. It's a semi-autobiographical film from Oscar-winning director Alfonso Cuaron.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Even with a crowded field this year, Roma is already the odds-on favorite to win this awards. It's not only a solid Foreign Language Film contender, it's being touted as a potential Best Picture contender, with Oscar prognosticators murmuring that it could be the first foreign language film to win Best Picture. There's also buzz for the leading actress, the previously unknown Yalitza Aparicio. Cuaron is best known in the U.S. for his technical prowess, on display in sci-fi and fantasy films like Gravity, Children of Men, and Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban. But he got his start making excellent, more understated films, with the most acclaimed probably being the poignant Y Tu Mama Tambien. It seems like Roma is a return to his earlier style of filmmaking, and will be his most personal film to date. There's no reason to believe this won't live up to its considerable hype.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: There's a danger in being the frontrunner too early: it puts a film on the defensive. With a crowded field, Oscar voters might be judging Roma at a too-high standard, or want to throw a vote to a strong but less-buzzed-about film. This category is, after all, commonly prone to spoilers. Just ask previous "surefire winners" like Amelie or Pan's Labyrinth which didn't take home their expected prize. Also, and I think this is critical, Roma is being distributed by Netflix. And the Academy has proven to be steadfastly reluctant to acknowledge Netflix films.

Film: Cold War

Country: Poland
What It's About: A passionate romance between to mismatched lovers set in the aftermath of the Cold War in the 1950s.
Why It Will Be Nominated: If there's a film likely to unseat Roma as the winner in this category, it'll be Cold War. Director Pawel Pawlikowski previously won the Oscar for his previous film Ida (which also received a nomination for Best Cinematography). Cold War appears to be a worthy successor to Ida, and already earned Pawlikowski the Best Director prize at Cannes.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: It's hard to imagine it won't be. But if it isn't, it'll just be because of how many strong submissions there are this year. And maybe the nominating committee will have black and white fatigue and not want to nominate both it AND Roma for that reason. But that would be an upset--this is a movie MADE for this category if there ever was one.

THE STANDOUTS FROM CANNES:

Film: Shoplifters

Country: Japan
What It's About: An impoverished family that takes in an abandoned child.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Whenever a film wins the coveted Palme d'Or at Cannes, the Oscars have to take notice. This year, that prize went to Shoplifters. The reviews imply this film is understated and powerful, so by all accounts it lives up to its accolades. It's easy to see Shoplifters as a genuine contender.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: The Oscars actually has less of a link to Cannes as one might think. Since 2000, only one Palme d'Or winner has actually won the Foreign Language Film Oscar (that was Amour, which also earned a Best Picture nomination). Last year's Palme d'Or winner, The Square, did score a nomination, but didn't win. One of the most common things mentioned in reviews of Shoplifters is how understated it is, and while that should make for a compelling and touchingly human drama, it might mean that Shoplifters gets passed over for other, flashier nominees.

Film: Burning

Country: South Korea
What It's About: A delivery-man who reconnects with an old friend on the eve of her trip to Africa. When she returns with a man she met in Africa, the three become embroiled in a mystery. It's adapted from a Haruki Murakami short story.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Shoplifters may have won the Palme d'Or, but the most buzzed about film from Cannes was Burning. It may not have won any official prizes from the jury, but it received vocal raves. Every year, all the critics in attendance are polled about the films in contention, and those films are given weighted scored. Burning didn't just receive the highest rating in 2018, it has the highest critical rating of any film at Cannes EVER. Everyone who's seen it seems to be blown away by it. Plus, it stars The Walking Dead's Steven Yeun, whose familiar face might increase the film's chances with the American Oscars voting bloc.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Its rave reviews STILL left it empty-handed at Cannes. Who's to say the same thing won't happen at the Oscars.

Film: Capernaum

Country: Lebanon
What It's About: A 12-year old boy living in squalor on the streets of Beirut who sues his parents for bringing him into this world.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Capernaum received a fantastic reception at Cannes, winning the Jury Prize (essentially 3rd place) and receiving a 15-minute standing ovation. The cast of mostly non-actors are supposed to be incredible, and this modern day fable from Nadine Labaki is being described not only as a strong film, but as a LIKABLE film that could potentially have a lot of commercial appeal. Lebanon received a nomination last year for its entry, The Insult (which was brilliant) and seems to have a strong chance of receiving another nomination this year.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Critics liked Capernaum, but not all were sold on it completely. I've seen quite a few reviews calling Capernaum uneven, even while acknowledging its triumphs. Looking at its track record at other film festivals (including the Calgary, Melbourne, Norwegian, Sarajevo, Toronto, and San Sebastian Film Festivals) it has consistently won the Audience Award or Fan Favorite award, as opposed to the awards given out by the official panel. I think Capernaum will be loved by audiences and could develop quite a following. That doesn't necessarily translate to an Oscar nomination.

Film: Border

Country: Sweden
What It's About: A deformed worker for the Swedish border agency, who has the unique gift of literally sniffing out guilt and shame to detect contraband being brought into the country, meets a strange man with the same deformation as her.
Why It Will Be Nominated: This film is supposed to be WILD. Director Ali Abbasi holds an Iranian passport, and this fantasy film will undoubtedly have a satirical bent and offer pointed commentary on immigration. That's a theme that's particularly relevant in the United States, and given the film's strong reviews, it might just be the most timely submission this year. Plus, most of the notable submissions this year are dramas firmly grounded in realism. Perhaps a film like this with a more offbeat premise and look will stand out from the pack.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: The Oscars are not known for responding to "weird" films, and Border promises to be quite weird indeed. I've already said numerous times that it's an especially competitive category this year, and to earn a nomination, Border will have to overcome challenges from other more Oscar-y films. But if it doesn't score a Foreign Language Film nomination, look for it to maybe appear in Best Makeup & Hairstyling.

OTHER SOLID BETS:

Film: Never Look Away

Country: Germany
What It's About: An art student in post-war East Germany who falls in love with a fellow student. But her father, a Professor who had a role in the Nazi eugenics program, opposes their relationship. It's inspired by the life of Gerhard Richter.
Why It Will Be Nominated: One of my favorite films of all time is The Lives of Others, from Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck. It's a brilliant film, which pulled a shocking upset to win Best Foreign Language Film over the clear favorite Pan's Labyrinth. And...I completely understand why The Lives of Others won, which is saying something. The film hailed von Donnersmarck as a bold, new cinematic voice, and everyone wanted to know what he'd do next. Well...what he did next was The Tourist, a completely forgettable movie that is probably only remembered because Ricky Gervais mercilessly mocked it throughout his Golden Globes hosting gig for two years straight. Never Look Away is von Donnersmarck's third film, made 8 years after The Tourist, and many have (thankfully) said it's a promising return to form. I for one am glad to see him back, and I imagine others in the industry feel the same way. It certainly sounds thematically similar to The Lives of Others, and if it's even a fraction as good, it's going to be one to watch in this category for sure.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: While Never Look Away has received great reviews, it hasn't received as amazing reviews as The Lives of Others did. And, again, in a competitive year, it might not be enough to stand out from the pack. Still, I'm quite excited for this film, and if this film doesn't make the cut, I imagine Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck is destined for Oscar glory in the future. Hopefully it doesn't take 8 years for him to make another film.

Film: Sunset

Country: Hungary
What It's About: A young girl who finds her inner strength in Budapest before World War I.
Why It Will Be Nominated: One of the most acclaimed films to win Best Foreign Language Film in recent years is the Hungarian Holocaust drama Son of Saul, the directorial debut of Laszlo Nemes. Nemes is now two for two, now that his second film was chosen as Hungary's submission this year. Given how sensational Son of Saul was, any film of Nemes' will automatically be considered an Oscar contender.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Sunset simply hasn't generated the kind of buzz that Son of Saul had, and reviews have been a bit mixed. There are, as I write this, 14 reviews of Sunset on Rottentomatoes, and 7 are negative. This film will certainly have it's fans, but also seems to have its fair share of detractors. It's also worth noting that I personally HATED Son of Saul. I don't see how it was anything other than misery porn. I'm hoping Sunset will be a bit lighter (and, frankly, it kind of HAS to be), but without the same brutality, I don't know how it will make the same artistic statement that Son of Saul admittedly made.

Film: The Guilty

Country: Denmark
What It's About: An emergency dispatcher on desk duty receives a frantic call from a kidnapped woman, which ends abruptly. From the confines of the police station, he must find and rescue the woman.
Why It Will Be Nominated: The Guilty just looks really good. The entire film appears to be set in real-time and will take place almost entirely in one room. It's a gimmick for sure, but if The Guilty can pull it off, it should be absolutely thrilling. And, by all accounts, it seems like the film is phenomenal, with first-time director Gustav Moller and star Jakob Cedergren receiving rave reviews. The film sounds exciting, and could be destined to be a cult classic, as well as a potential Oscar nominee.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: The Foreign Language Film category tends to be about pedigree. The Academy LOVES to award big names (Akira Kurosawa famously complained how Japanese cinema was largely, unfairly ignored outside of his own films) and The Guilty just doesn't have the big guns behind it. It's a first-time director, and it doesn't have much studio pull either. It's a really low-budget film, and it's honestly incredibly impressive that it's been selected as the Danish submission at all. It's a definite underdog here, and scoring a nomination would be a true testament to its quality. Even if it doesn't make the shortlist, it sounds like The Guilty is a strong debut, and look for Moller's future films to be favorites in this category in a few years.

Film: The Heiresses

Country: Paraguay
What It's About: Chela and Chiquita, a married couple both from affluent families, who are faced with a new reality when Chiquita is imprisoned on fraud charges and they must both sell their inherited possessions. Chela has to work for the first time, and starts a local taxi service for wealthy old ladies.
Why It Will Be Nominated: The Heiresses made a huge splash at the Berlin International Film Festival, one of the top festivals in the world.  It won second place, and star Ana Brun won Best Actress. It might not be as buzzed about as other films on this list, but it certainly caught the attention of quite a few Oscar prognosticators as a potential dark horse. Paraguay has never been nominated in this category--in fact this is only the third film the country has ever submitted--but that doesn't disqualify it. After all, last year's Foreign Language Film winner, A Fantastic Woman, came from Chile, a country which had never won this award before.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Cannes was especially strong this year, and so Foreign Language films that weren't at Cannes have been playing catch-up all year. The Heiresses has buzz, but the question is whether it has enough buzz so late in the year. The Oscar committee has had several more months to be excited about films like Shoplifters, Burning, and Capernaum. The Heiresses is in the running, but it needs to build momentum.

And speaking of Cannes...

OTHER CANNES PICKS:

Film: Dogman

Country: Italy
What It's About: A dog groomer who, after being released from prison for a robbery he was unfairly made a part of, seeks revenge on the drug dealer who lied to him.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Matteo Garrone is a great filmmaker who has been gaining a consistent following both in Italy and outside of it. But none of his films have ever been Oscar-nominated. This could just be his year to finally make it to the Academy Awards. It was a strong year for Italian films, and there were several acclaimed films that were up for consideration to be the Italian submission. Dogman being the Italian submission this year is already a huge achievement. Scoring an actual nomination isn't too much of a stretch.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Like the other films in this section of my post, Dogman received strong reviews at the Cannes film festival. But for whatever reason, it couldn't quite get the same buzz as the films in my earlier "STANDOUTS FROM CANNES" section. Especially because of Garrone, Dogman is in the running, but it will need to pick up momentum for sure.

Film: The Wild Pear Tree

Country: Turkey
What It's About: An aspiring writer returns to the village where he was born determined to gather enough money to become a published author.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Nuri Bilge Ceylan is one of Turkey're foremost directors. While no Turkish film has ever been nominated for the Foreign Language Film Oscar, his films have been submitted to the Academy five times, more than any other Turkish director. And his film Three Monkeys is the only Turkish submission to ever make the shortlist. He's already a respected filmmaker, and The Wild Pear Tree is being cited by many as his new career-best film. It received near universal acclaim at Cannes, and should be on any international film buff's radar.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Again, it's warm reception at Cannes was enough to keep it in the Oscar conversation, but not enough to pull it away from the pack. It sounds like a wonderfully poetic film, but amongst flashier contenders it's questionable whether it can enough of a splash to receive a nomination.

Film: Birds of Passage

Country: Colombia
What It's About: A Wayuu family involved in the illegal drug trade in Colombia, it's an epic historical crime saga told in five chapters.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Colombia earned its first nomination three years ago with Embrace of the Serpent from director Ciro Guerra. Now Guerra is back, co-directing with his frequent producing partner Cristina Gallego. The film has been earning favorable comparisons to other crime epics, such as The Godfather trilogy and The Sopranos. In a category often filled with arthouse films, Birds of Passage could stand out as a more exciting film, which voters might respond to.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: In a weaker year, Birds of Passage would probably have been a shoo-in. In 2018, it might have to settle for merely being a contender. It's a bit of an enigma, and it's tough for me to figure out how strong it's chances are.

Film: Girl

Country: Belgium
What It's About: A 15-year old transgender ballerina, navigating puberty and her training as she begins taking hormones.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Girl did quite well at Cannes, winning the Camera d'Or given out to the best first feature, as well as the Queer Palm, an independently-awarded prize for the best film at Cannes focused on LGBTQ themes. Last year's winner, A Fantastic Woman, was an extraordinary film about a transgender woman, and Belgium is clearly hoping that Girl will follow suit.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: A big difference between Girl and A Fantastic Woman is that A Fantastic Woman actually had a transgender actress (the glorious Daniela Vega, who should have received a Best Actress nomination), while Girl has controversially cast a cisgender boy for the titular character. We really should be beyond this by now, and while it hasn't been that long since Eddie Redmayne received a nomination for The Danish Girl, one hopes that the Academy is slowly becoming more aware of this issue. The film does have a decent amount of buzz, but if it makes the shortlist, expect some backlash before the nominations are determined.

Film: Woman at War

Country: Iceland
What It's About: A choir conductor and political vandal who must reassess her activism in the wake of a government smear campaign against her and her upcoming adoption.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Woman at War wasn't in competition at Cannes, but was shown during International Critics' Week to much acclaim, especially for its screenplay and for lead actress Halldora Geirharosdottir. It's strong notice put it on the Oscar radar, and it could sneak into the shortlist. Its political idealism might be appealing to the Academy in these troubling political times. And, it's worth mentioning that Icelandic cinema is on the rise. Only one Icelandic film has ever received a Foreign Language Film nomination, and that was way back in 1991, but a few Icelandic films have been getting a good reception. In the past three years, two of Iceland's Oscar submissions received U.S. distribution, which is actually a pretty big deal. Perhaps it's Iceland's time for Oscar glory.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Since Cannes, Woman at War hasn't been at any other film festivals, and as strong as word of mouth surrounding the film was, that's not enough to sustain a film's Oscar momentum. ESPECIALLY if that film was screened out of competition and therefore didn't win any official awards. If it had also been screened at Berlin, say, then maybe Woman at War would have been more of a contender, but right now it's a bit of a longshot. It's best hope is going to be if it can do well at the European Film Awards. That's a HUGE Oscar predictor. Last year, the three European nominees for the Oscar were also nominees for Best Film at the EFA's. Those nominations won't be announced for another month, but they're going to rather definitively announce whether Woman at War will be a contender or not.

Film: Donbass

Country: Ukraine
What It's About: The mid-2010s conflict between Ukraine and the Russian-supported Donetsk People's Republic. It's told in thirteen segments.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Again, good buzz out of Cannes should never be discounted. Director Sergei Loznitsa won the Best Director award in the Un Certain Regard section at Cannes, and it received critical acclaim all around. And the fact that a win for this film might piss of Vladimir Putin is probably a bonus.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: It may have gotten acclaim but it was hardly the talk of the festival. Plus the film sounds like a Ken Burns documentary, which might not be the most eye-catching material for the nominating committee in a far less dense field.

Film: Yommedine

Country: Egypt
What It's About: A leper and his orphaned apprentice leave their leper colony for the first time and embark on a journey across Egypt to search for their families.
Why It Will Be Nominated: The final film in this post to have premiered at Cannes, Yommedine is also the film that I know the least about. But I've included it because it won the Francois Chalais Prize, which rewards "a film dedicated to the values of life affirmation and of journalism." Now that might seem like strange and kind of confusing criteria, but essentially it signifies an important film. Previous winners include Oscar nominee Timbuktu, Oscar winner Son of Saul, and last year's critically acclaimed major Oscar snub BPM (Beats Per Minute). So, on the basis of this prize alone, Yomeddine is on my Oscar radar, and I hope the film gets some attention. It could just maybe score the first ever Oscar nomination for an Egyptian film.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Again, I don't know much about it. And this category has disproportionately ignored African films, which means Yommedine already faces an uphill battle. I hope I'm wrong, though, and would love to see Yommedine gain some momentum.

DARK HORSES:

Film: Champions

Country: Spain
What It's About: An ill-mannered basketball coach who, as part of his community service, is ordered to coach a disabled basketball team.
Why It Will Be Nominated: It's rare that a film gets an Academy Award nomination without a pile of festival accolades, but Champions has a lot going for it. The film was a HUGE commercial success in Spain, one of their biggest box office smashes ever, and is probably the only genuine blockbuster on this list. The casting of disabled actors to play disabled characters has earned the film a lot of good attention as well, and elevates the film from your average summer comedy. It's an actually progressive film that's looking to to not only be an Oscar nominee, but could be a surprise box office hit in the U.S. as well.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: The Academy is notorious for not liking comedies, and this category is no exception. A few years ago, the French comedy The Intouchables was expected to be a shoo-in to win this award, and ended up not even getting a nomination (although it is getting an American remake coming out next year with Bryan Cranston and Kevin Hart). Champions doesn't even have the same buzz as The Intouchables has. If it makes the shortlist, then expect Spain to launch a good campaign to get it to score a nomination. But the shortlist is a major hurdle it will have to overcome.

Film: I Am Not a Witch

Country: The U.K.
What It's About: A child accused of witchcraft in Zambia, who is sent to live at a witch's camp.
Why It Will Be Nominated: Unlike every film on this list so far, I've actually SEEN this film, and can attest that it's really good. I think it's a film with a lot of appeal, a quirky indie with fascinating imagery. Surreal and satirical, it has all the makings of a future cult classic. It stays with you. I don't know if it will be nominated, but I'd like it to be.
Why It Won't Be Nominated: It's just not on a lot of peoples' radar. The film has done well critically, but in terms of actual awards, it's best outing for accolades was at last year's British Independent Film Awards, where it racked up an impressive 10 nominations and 3 wins (including one for first-time director Rungano Nyoni). That's fantastic, and certainly earned by the film, but the BIFA's are essentially like the Gotham Awards or the Spirit Awards. It's prestigious, but not exactly a direct channel to Oscar glory.

Film: Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts

Country: Indonesia
What It's About: After a mourning widow kills a gang of thieves (including her would-be rapist), she goes on a journey to the town center and seeks revenge on the gang members who had gotten away,
Why It Will Be Nominated: Like, I Am Not a Witch, I have actually seen this film and it is ABSOLUTELY INCREDIBLE! Seriously, everyone should see this powerful film. This Indonesian feminist revenge Western is powerful, magical, and truly original. There's no way it's not going to be one of my absolute favorite films of the year, and is more than worthy of an Oscar nomination. Plus, it has one of my new favorite film scores (and I'm desperately hoping a soundtrack is released).
Why It Won't Be Nominated: Nobody's really talking about it. It has critical acclaim, but nobody's campaigning for this film, and I've seen no other Oscar odds-betters even mention it. Indonesia hasn't really had success with the Oscars before--they've never even had a film make the shortlist--and it's looking like Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts is going to be similarly ignored. But I encourage everyone to see this film. Really, including it here is wishful thinking that the nominating committee will see this film and fall in love with it like I have. So, it's a major longshot, but a worthy one. But this film is a bold statement from first-time writer and director Mouly Surya, and I can't wait to see what type of film she makes next.


So, where does all this leave us. Who knows? In about a month, a shortlist will be released and it might clear some things up. Nobody knows how long that shortlist will be. Last year it was nine films, but that's not a set number by any means. I wouldn't be surprised if a few submitted films that I've never even heard of make it onto the list: there are always a few upsets in there, but I do expect it to be populated mostly by the films I've mentioned here. The big question, of course, is whether anything can overtake Roma. But this is an especially exciting category this year, and I hope you all join me in watching these films as they're released in the U.S.

Oscars 2019: Films to Watch

It's odd to think we're already almost 2/3 of the way through the year. And as the months of summer blockbusters come to a close, the exciting time of Oscar season is going to creep up. Starting in late September, films that producers think have a real shot of awards season glory are going to start being released, and it's always an exciting time for an awards season nut like me. What's amazing to me is how, looking at things like release dates, film descriptions, and past awards, we can already start to get an idea of what next year's Oscars might look like even if we haven't seen any of the films that will be in contention yet. And this year is especially mysterious. Unlike last year, when future Best Picture nominees like Get Out and Dunkirk had already been released, very few of the films that have already been released feel like they have staying power for awards season. Below, I've detailed 22 movies that seem to have genuine Oscar hopes and might be on everybody's lips in a few months' time. And also discuss what might hold these films back.

As always when I talk about the Oscars, I want to make it known that being recognized by the Oscars is not the same as being a great movie. There are multiple movies coming out soon that I'm REALLY excited about and think will be great, but which I don't think the Oscars are going to respond to so I've not included here.


First Man

What Is It?: A Neil Armstrong biopic from Oscar-winning director Damien Chazelle, with a star-studded cast led by Ryan Gosling as Armstrong.
Why It Will Win: This is probably the most Oscar-friendly film yet to come out in 2018. Chazelle has had a great track record with the Oscars, with both Whiplash and La La Land picking up multiple awards even though neither won the top prize. First Man is his most Oscar-y film yet and could take Chazelle to the top podium. It's probably the odds-on favorite on paper.
Why It Won't: The Post seems like a good film to compare this too. That film seemed to have everything going for it leading into the Oscar season, and while it did get a Best Picture nomination, it never seemed to truly be in contention to win. This might be a project that just can't live up to its expectations. Also, in past years, the Academy has made great strides in trying to broaden its horizons and not just award films about white men. Well, of the 18 cast members listed on the film's wikipedia page, all 18 are white, and 17 are men. I think it's likely that First Man will score a ton of nominations, but it might be a more giant step to take home the biggest trophy of the night.

If Beale Street Could Talk

What Is It?: Moonlight director Barry Jenkins is back, and directing the film adaptation of the beloved James Baldwin novel of the same name.
Why It Will Win: With Moonlight, Jenkins became one of the most sought-after directors in the business practically overnight. If he can bring the same level of artistry to If Beale Street Could Talk, it's tough to imagine this film won't be really amazing. Moonlight entered the Oscar race as a longshot, now Jenkins gets to tour the awards circuit as a bona fide frontrunner.
Why It Won't: Film adaptations of novels often get nominations, but don't actually win Best Picture as much as one might think. No adaptation of a novel has won Best Picture since No Country For Old Men in 2007. In recent years, acclaimed film adaptations of novels that seemed to be destined for Oscar glory (like Call Me by Your Name, Brooklyn, Room, and Silver Linings Playbook) have consistently ended up losing steam as the Oscars grew nearer. Also, the Academy likes to spread the love. A Barry Jenkins film winning Best Picture just two years ago might mean it's just too early for another Jenkins film to win again. Lastly, the cast is mostly made up of unknowns, and while that doesn't completely sink the film's chances, it does mean the film faces an uphill battle because it has to rely on Jenkins' clout alone.

Widows

What Is It?: Steve McQueen hasn't released a film since 12 Years a Slave, but is now back with the much-anticipated Widows. He's armed himself with a star-studded cast lead by the incomparable Viola Davis, and is working with a screenplay from Gone Girl's Gillian Flynn
Why It Will Win: Again, the pedigree here is hard to beat. A potential contender for directing, writing, and acting, fans of McQueen have been waiting for this movie for a really long time. If it can fire on all cylinders, it should be a fixture of the awards season.
Why It Won't: Like most of the films on this list, it hasn't been released yet. So it remains to be seen if this film can actually live up to its incredible promise. But, I'm reaching--the outlook for Widows looks really good.

Backseat

What Is It?: After Adam McKay found surprise Oscar success with The Big Short, he's back with another Oscar bait film. This time, it's a biopic of former vice-president Dick Cheney, and features a star-studded cast led by Christian Bale.
Why It Will Win: This film looks really promising, and Bale has received Oscar buzz ever since an unrecognizable picture was released of him as Cheney. Plus the supporting cast features a few heavyweight Oscar contenders, including Amy Adams as Lynne Cheney, Steve Carell as Donald Rumsfeld, and last year's Supporting Actor winner Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush. If these roles are weighty and not just cameos, it seems like there will be a huge Oscar campaign behind this film. And, it's topical: a lot of Hollywood will relish the chance to award a film about a manipulative Republican in the White House.
Why It Won't: The topical nature of the film's subject matter might work against it if voters feel it hits too close to home. And we don't know the film's tone. While it's unlikely the film is going to cast Cheney in an especially positive light, if McKay tries to go for any sympathy towards the reviled figure, he might face quite a bit of backlash. As great as The Big Short did during awards season, I personally was not a fan of the film, and so I'm skeptical of whether or not this film will navigate the tricky task of making a biopic of a reviled figure.

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

What Is It?: This film from the Coen Brothers is one of the more mysterious ones on this list. Very little is known about it except that it's a Western starring Coen favorite Tim Blake Nelson.
Why It Will Win: Even though we know very little about it, what we know is exciting. The Coen Brothers have done well with the Oscars before, and their Westerns in particular tend to be among their most acclaimed films (like Best Picture winner No Country for Old Men and Best Picture nominee True Grit). We'll know more when we see a trailer, but for now The Ballad of Buster Scruggs seems like a promising enigma.
Why It Won't: Well, like I said, we don't know much. This might be a comedy, and the Coen Brothers' comedies tend to not do as well at the Oscars as their dramas. We just don't know enough about this movie to firmly call it a frontrunner yet.

Boy Erased

What Is It?: Joel Edgerton directs this film based on a memoir about a gay teen sent to a conversion therapy program. Lucas Hedges stars as the boy, with Nicole Kidman and Russell Crowe as his Baptist parents, and Edgerton himself as the head therapist of the program.
Why It Will Win: Conversion therapy is a terrifying practice, that still happens today a lot more than we realize, and as a subject matter it feels ripe for cinematic treatment. Indeed, this year there are two films set in conversion therapy centers, the other being the recently-released indie The Miseducation of Cameron Post. Hedges has been on fire lately--after receiving a deserved nomination for Manchester by the Sea two years ago, he had principal roles in both Lady Bird and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri last year, and this project seems on track to continue his Oscar streak. The subject matter and caliber of actors behind the project just scream Oscar, so it's easy to see why it's one of the more anticipated prestige films of the year.
Why It Won't: Although it has a trailer and a release date, the film has yet to be included in any film festivals, which is really strange. The buzz it has is all based on hypotheticals as opposed to concrete reactions. As other Oscar contenders start being seen, Boy Erased might be left in the dust unless it finds a festival to debut it soon (some are speculating it'll headline Telluride, which doesn't announce its lineup in advance). The other thing is that Joel Edgerton isn't yet cemented as an Oscar director. His directorial debut, The Gift, is good, but not OUTSTANDING, and so it remains to be seen whether his behind-the-camera efforts can elevate the film.

Beautiful Boy

What Is It?: This biographical drama is about a teenager's (Timothee Chalamet) struggle with meth addiction, told through the eyes of his father (Steve Carell).
Why It Will Win: The subject matter is really Oscar-y, and the true story nature of the film will make it even more appealing to the Academy. It's sure to be a real tearjerker.
Why It Won't: This is the English language debut of Felix Von Groenigan, who previously received an Oscar nomination for Foreign Language Film for The Broken Circle Breakdown. Von Groenigan is certainly acclaimed, but he's not a huge enough name yet to automatically draw the attention of the Academy. So despite the strong cast (which also features Amy Ryan and Maura Tierney), the main draw here is the film's subject matter.And while the Academy loves difficult subject matter like this, it's also a delicate line to walk when bringing such subject matter to film, because if a film is depressing and overwrought, it tends be tough to actually root for. It's uncertain just how well this film will do in the awards season, but it's undoubtedly one to watch.

On the Basis of Sex

What Is It?: A biographical drama about Ruth Bader Ginsburg, with Oscar nominee Felicity Jones as the notorious RBG herself.
Why It Will Win: Ruth Bader Ginsburg is one of the most beloved figures of the political left. And given the current battles waging in the court, and the acclaimed documentary RBG also released this year, she's an especially topical figure. It's really hard to imagine the Oscars not paying attention to a biopic like this.
Why It Won't:  Biopics tend to be Oscar nominees rather than reliable Oscar winners. With Jones' leading performance, it's easy to compare this film to one like The Theory of Everything--a biopic that received mixed critical reception, and got a Best Picture nomination on principle but was never really in consideration for the win. Plus, director Mimi Leder's previous efforts (like infamously failed Oscar bait Pay it Forward) don't inspire much confidence.

Welcome to Marwen

What Is It?: Inspired by the documentary Marwencol, the film follows Mark Hogancamp (Steve Carell), an assault victim who constructs a miniature town to help with his recovery. Robert Zemeckis directs.
Why It Will Win: This film has a lot of potential. It will tackle some serious subject matter, but also has opportunities for whimsy and fantasy, both of which are strengths of Zemeckis. It should be a crowdpleaser--a film palatable enough for all audiences while also appealing to more the more snobbish of film buffs. Plus, Steve Carell is set to have a great year, appearing in three different potential Oscar contenders, so his presence should also boost the film's appeal. Personally, I have to say I'm really excited for this one and think it might be a dark horse contender, but that's based on instinct more than anything else.
Why It Won't: Zemeckis is a brilliant filmmaker, but it's been a while since the Academy has really taken notice of him. His more recent potential Oscar contenders like Flight, The Walk, and Allied have just not gotten attention from the Academy. And while Carell's presence here could help, it also could hurt if his own Oscar campaign ends up focusing on another film. If, for example, it becomes clear that he's more likely to get an Oscar for Beautiful Boy, then why put money into boosting him here? Plus, the film's inevitable quirkiness might be more strange than charming. We'll have to wait and see.

Roma

No images from Roma have been released yet, so here's Alfonso Cuaron with a camera.

What Is It?: Alfonso Cuaron hasn't released a film since Gravity, but he's finally back this year with Roma, about the life of a Mexican family in the 1970s.
Why It Will Win: Cuaron is probably best known for big budget films like Gravity and Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, but he got his start and first earned his reputation by making quiet, powerful dramas (everyone should see Y Tu Mama Tambien). We know Cuaron can makes films like this really well, and now that he's on the Academy's radar, it would be great to see a film like this rewarded.
Why It Won't: For one thing, much of the film is in Spanish, and the Academy has still never awarded Best Picture to a foreign language film. But the biggest obstacle Roma faces on the way to the Best Picture podium is that it's being distributed by Netflix. The Academy has a lot of resistance towards streaming services, and has not been kind to any Netflix film that isn't a documentary. Even last year's excellent Mudbound, which because the first non-documentary Netflix film to earn any Oscar nominations, missed the Best Picture race. The Oscars just don't seem ready to validate Netflix as a legitimate film distributor.

A Star is Born

What Is It?: A remake of the 1937 film, now as a musical! The film is a passion project for Bradley Cooper, who stars in it, produces it, co-wrote the screenplay, and is making his directorial debut. It also stars Lady Gaga.
Why It Will Win: The movie musical can still bring in the Oscars when it's done well, and A Star is Born is speculated to be both a critical and commercial hit. Cooper has been an Oscars darling for a while and has a lot of Academy goodwill working for him. The secret weapon of the film just might be Lady Gaga, though, who has gotten a lot of great early buzz. Her musical numbers in the film, many of which she helped write, should be standouts, and having already won acting awards for her television work, the chances of seeing Lady Gaga at the Oscars next year seem really promising.
Why It Won't: It is really, really tough to direct yourself to win an acting Oscar. So far, the only person to have done so is Laurence Olivier in Hamlet, and Bradley Cooper isn't exactly Laurence Olivier. So much of the film is resting on Cooper's shoulders, and the truth is that he just is unproven as a director up until now, so the film's success is a bit of a mystery. This has the potential to be a real crowdpleaser, but even if everyone loves it, the story itself might be too lightweight to be a serious contender. Some see it as being the next La La Land, but I worry it might be more like The Greatest Showman.

The Front Runner

What Is It?: A biographical dark comedy from Jason Reitman about Senator Gary Hart (Hugh Jackman), a one-time Presidential candidate in 1988 whose career was ruined because of an extramarital affair.
Why It Will Win: It's easy to forget just how great of a filmmaker Jason Reitman is. His films are really solid, and he's been recognized with Best Picture nominations in the past for Juno and Up in the Air. He's already released one of my favorite films of the year so far--the criminally underappreciated Tully--but it seems like his Oscar campaign is going to be devoted solely on The Front Runner, which shows his confidence in the project. This film is a bit of a dark horse. It could easily be forgotten, but if it's as good as we know a Reitman film can be, it might also sweep. It might be a longshot, but it could also be in contention for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actor (Hugh Jackman as Hart) and  Best Supporting Actress (Vera Farmiga as Hart's wife, Lee). Knowing Reitman, there will assuredly be some commentary on the fact that our current President has had multiple extramarital affairs, and the Academy is bound to respond to that.
Why It Won't: Again, since the film hasn't been released yet, it's tough to know how to respond. And even if the film is great, that doesn't mean that the Academy will take notice, as great Reitman films like Thank You For Smoking and Young Adult have been left out in the cold. Plus, if the Academy is looking at a political film, The Front Runner might lose votes in comparison to the better-financed Backseat.

The Other Side of the Wind

What Is It?: This one is pretty incredible, and really exciting for any film historian out there. This is an Orson Welles film made during the 1970s that was never finished or released. Now, through a lot of work (and cooperation by the Welles estate) the film has been completed and will be officially released by Netflix this year. The mockumentary is, quite fittingly, about the passage of time, and is said to be a beautiful and touching snapshot of Hollywood at the time.
Why It Will Win: This is a no-brainer. How often is there a new film released by one of the greatest filmmakers of all time, over 30 years after that filmmaker's death? The Other Side of the Wind's existence alone is remarkable. In the process of completing it, the film has been screened for many top professionals in the industry during various parts of the film's completion, and all have said it's extraordinary and incredibly moving to watch.
Why It Won't: Well, there's a question of whether it will even be eligible for the Oscars. Technically, it feels like it should be. Films are, after all, eligible for Oscars based on their release date, but this is going to be up for discussion with the Academy. And then there's the fact that most of the individuals who could win for the film are dead. That's certainly not a prerequisite, but some Oscar voters might feel it's unfair to award the work of someone from over 40 years ago as opposed to a contemporary, especially one who is actively campaigning. And, lastly, there's no telling how much the film actually holds up. This could be a film with niche appeal, and might fall short when compared side-by-side with more current films. It's a tough case--the Oscars have never been faced with a film quite like this one and it's tough to know what the result will be. But I wouldn't be surprised to see the film at least acknowledged; perhaps there will be a special Oscar given to the team that worked to finish the film.

Wildlife

What Is It?: An independent film that marks the directorial debut of Paul Dano. It received raves at Sundance, particularly for Carey Mulligan's leading performance.
Why It Will Win: Wildlife received nearly universal praise when it premiered at Sundance earlier this year. And every year, we see future Best Picture winners and nominees that creep up through word of mouth. If the acclaim that Wildlife initially received continues upon its October release, it could be like Room. Even better, it could be like Moonlight. Also, it's worth noting that while Paul Dano has now stepped behind the camera, he's not actually in the film, which tends to lead to better results for actors-turned-directors. Just like with Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig last year.
Why It Won't: Sundance has grown in acclaim over the years, but the phrase "lots of buzz at Sundance" still doesn't mean a lot. It's a festival that caters to a very specific type of film, and those films tend to not always find mainstream success. Even when a film out of Sundance is really great, it just tends to not have a lot of overlap with the Oscars. Each year, there's usually only one or two films to get onto the Oscars' radar, and those are almost always screened out of competition. In fact, only three films that competed at Sundance in the last decade have received Oscar nominations, and none have ever won. Wildlife might end up doing better at the Spirit Awards as opposed to the Oscars.

Suspiria

What Is It?: A remake of Dario Argento's masterpiece of Italian giallo horror, remade by Luca Guadagnino with a cast led by Dakota Johnson and Tilda Swinton.
Why It Will Win: Suspiria is pretty beloved film. It's a masterpiece, which has been INCREDIBLY influential, especially in the horror genre, and is still the scariest film I've ever seen. Producers have been trying to remake it for years, and multiple remakes have been announced and then scrapped. But Guadagnino's has actually come through, and the trailer that was released looks really, really cool. It seems like it keeps the spooky, avant-garde spirit of the original while also announcing its own distinct vision. And while it's not a typical Oscar film, the early looks at the film have people excited.
Why It Won't: The Oscars don't like horror. Only one horror film has ever won Best Picture, and Suspiria is DEFINITELY going to be full-on horror. It's a real long shot here, even for a nomination. But, ever since the Best Picture field expanded to up to 10 nominees, this is the exact kind of film that has a chance it ordinarily wouldn't have had.

The Favourite

What Is It?: Yorgos Lanthimos directs this period film about two cousins (Oscar-winners Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone) in a fierce battle to gain the favor of Queen Anne (Olivia Colman). The film has been described as "a bawdy, acerbic tale of royal intrigue, passion, envy, and betrayal." Weisz has also said in an interview that it's a "funnier, sex driven All About Eve."
Why It Will Win: Lanthimos has gained a tremendous following in just the last few years, with a reputation for creating absolutely bonkers artsy films that are creative and twisted. The Favourite sounds like potentially his most Oscar-friendly film to date, and the Oscars LOVE when an arthouse filmmaker helms a more marketable film. The trailer looks really promising and it might be Lanthimos' time to finally enter the big race.
Why It Won't: If you've never seen a Yorgos Lanthimos film, you don't really understand just how fucking weird they are. The Lobster scored a screenplay nomination a couple of years ago, but his last film The Killing of a Sacred Deer was shut out, presumably for being just too strange and heavy. My guess is that Lanthimos will get to the Oscars eventually. But it's not certain that The Favourite is the film that will get him there.

The Old Man and the Gun

What Is It?: Robert Redford plays criminal and escape artist Forrest Tucker in his last film role before retirement
Why It Will Win: Did you read the description? It's Robert Redford's last ever film role before he retires. That alone is going to force the Academy to pay attention. Plus, it's directed by David Lowery, who is known for some really creative filmmaking, such as last year's A Ghost Story.
Why It Won't: Like a lot of these films, we just don't know a lot about it. And even if Redford is on the Academy's radar, that won't immediately translate to Best Picture glory.

22 July

No images from 22 July have been released yet, so here's Paul Greengrass with a microphone.

What Is It?: Director Paul Greengrass continues his trend of directing disaster movies like United 93 and Captain Phillips with this film about the aftermath of the 2011 Norway attacks, the deadliest attack in Norway since World War II.
Why It Will Win: United 93 is an absolutely brilliantly made film, and many agree that it would have been a Best Picture contender had it not been released so soon after the World Trade Center attacks. The Norway attacks were devastating, but will not hit as close to home for most Academy voters. If Greengrass can make as good of a film as both United 93 and Captain Phillips, then he might finally advance from Oscar nominee to Oscar winner.
Why It Won't: The Norway attacks are just not as well-known to most Oscar voters as the subjects of Greengrass' previous disaster films. And, unlike Captain Phillips, it doesn't have the starpower of someone like Tom Hanks behind it. If there's a film it can be compared to, it would probably be Dunkirk. If there's glowing praise after its premiere at the Venice Film Festival, it could definitely score a Best Picture nomination, and will probably do well in the technical categories, but without a big headliner in the acting categories, 22 July faces an uphill battle to winning Best Picture. And, much like Roma, being distributed by Netflix is only going to hurt it's chances.

Colette

What Is It?: Keira Knightley stars in this biographical film about the French novelist Colette.
Why It Will Win: The Academy likes period films, and this one seems like the rare period film that feels like it will resonate with modern audiences due to its feminist bent. The film received universal acclaim when it premiered at Sundance, and seems like the first genuine Oscar contender from fledgling indie film studio Bleecker Street.
Why It Won't: The film does feel destined for the Oscars, but maybe not in the Best Picture category. Just like director Wash Westmoreland's last film, Still Alice, this feels like it might get more attention for its star as opposed to Best Picture. The film is supposed to be good, but Knightley is supposed to be great. It's one to watch for Oscar season, but just doesn't have the buzz to get into the biggest race of the night at this point.

At Eternity's Gate

What Is It?: Julian Schnabel directs this biopic about Vincent Van Gogh, starring Willem Dafoe as the artist himself.
Why It Will Win: Schnabel might not be a household name, but he has serious cinephile cred, and received a Best Director nomination for the innovative The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. We know very little about this film, but Dafoe playing Van Gogh is a really intriguing idea, and the subject matter seems suitable to Schnabel's artistic sensibilities. And even if only a little information has been released about it, the release date and festival schedule for the film seems to suggest its distributors think it might be have Oscar chances.
Why It Won't: Schnabel is REALLY out there, and since no one has seen the film yet, it might be too wacky or too boring to genuinely be part of the conversation. I think there's a chance it'll be an Oscars film, but I think there's also a chance that this will be released and absolutely nobody will see it. Let's hope it's the former.

Black Panther

What Is It?: If you don't know what Black Panther is it means you've never heard of movies before and in that case, why are you reading this? This entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, helmed by Ryan Coogler, was an enormous success both critically and commercially.
Why It Will Win: Black Panther was a landmark achievement. This blockbuster, the first Marvel film to be directed by and to star a person of color, received a lot of buzz. It's not just another superhero film, it's one with a message. Recently, the Academy has been fighting accusations that it's out of touch with audiences, and recognizing a film like Black Panther would show that it is not blind to commercial success.
Why It Won't: It's a superhero movie. In previous years, whenever a superhero movie does well with critics, people start saying it might be the first superhero movie to get a Best Picture nomination, and it just never happens. It happened with The Dark Knight, The Avengers, Wonder Woman, and now it's going to happen with Black Panther. There's buzz now, but once genuine Oscar contenders are released, Black Panther is just not Oscar-y enough.

BlacKkKlansman

What Is It?: Spike Lee's latest tells the unbelievable true story of an African-American cop who infiltrated the KKK.
Why It Will Win: BlacKkKlansman has garnered Oscar buzz ever since it premiered at Cannes, and many have said its recent release signals the start of Oscar season. It's the only already released film with believable buzz. Spike Lee hasn't made it to the Oscars since his masterpiece Do the Right Thing, and many are saying this is his best film since. It's a timely movie, and such a great story, and is bound to have a strong Oscar campaign behind it.
Why It Won't: Most Oscar films tend to be released later in the year, so the fact that BlacKkKlansman is being released in August means it might not have the staying power that it needs to remain in the Oscars conversation. And then, to get real, there's racism. The Oscars have gotten better at recognizing more diverse films, but with two Oscar frontrunners (If Beale Street Could Talk and Widows) already being helmed by black directors, the unfortunate reality is that Oscar voters are probably significantly less likely to remember BlacKkKlansman. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.



Okay, so what does this all mean? Who knows. But, I figured I should try and make some early predictions. Some of these are going to be way, WAY off, and there are bound to be some films I've never even heard of or am completely not expecting which will make their way onto the ballot. I've also made predictions for Director and the four acting awards. These are even tougher: the director award is going to be skewed by whatever films rise to the top of the pack for Best Picture, so that's a real shot in the dark, but of my predictions, I do think that there's a good chance Orson Welles will get a Best Director nomination even if The Other Side of the Wind doesn't get a Best Picture nomination (if, of course, it's even eligible).  The acting awards are even tougher to gauge, and there are a few films with Oscar-buzz for performances even if the films themselves aren't generating the same attention (such as Glenn Close vehicle The Wife). So I offer these with no degree of certainty, but if you were forcing me to predict the Oscar nominees right now, this is what I'd come up with:

Best Picture:
Backseat
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Beautiful Boy
Boy Erased
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Favourite
First Man
On the Basis of Sex
Widows
Wildlife 

But don't count out: 22 July, BlacKkKlansman, Colette, The Front Runner, The Other Side of the World, Roma, A Star is Born, Suspiria, and Welcome to Marwen

Best Director: 
Damien Chazelle--First Man
Barry Jenkins--If Beale Street Could Talk
Yorgos Lanthimos--The Favourite
Steve McQueen--Widows
Orson Welles--The Other Side of the Wind

But don't count out: The Coen Brothers--The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Alfonso Cuaron--Roma, Paul Dano--Wildlife, Joel Edgerton--Boy Erased, Paul Greengrass--22 July, Luca Guadagnino--Suspiria, Spike Lee--BlacKkKlansman, Adam McKay--Backseat, Jason Reitman--The Front Runner, and Robert Zemeckis--Welcome to Marwen

Best Actress:
Glenn Close--The Wife
Viola Davis--Widows
Felicity Jones--On the Basis of Sex
Keira Knightley--Colette
Carey Mulligan--Wildlife

But don't count out: Emily Blunt--Mary Poppins, Toni Collette--Hereditary, Olivia Colman--The Favourite, Penelope Cruz--Everybody Knows, Lady Gaga--A Star is Born, Kiki Layne--If Beale Street Could Talk, Melissa McCarthy--Can You Ever Forgive Me?, and Charlize Theron--Tully


Best Actor:
Steve Carell--Welcome to Marwen OR Beautiful Boy
Willem Dafoe--At Eternity's Gate
Ryan Gosling--First Man
Lucas Hedges--Boy Erased
Robert Redford--The Old Man and the Gun

But don't count out: Christian Bale--Backseat, Ethan Hawke--First Reformed, Hugh Jackman--The Front Runner, Stephan James--If Beale Street Could Talk, Tim Blake Nelson--The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, and John David Washington--BlacKkKlansman  

Best Supporting Actress:
Cynthia Erivo--Widows
Nicole Kidman--Boy Erased
Regina King--If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone AND/OR Rachel Weisz--The Favourite
Tilda Swinton--Suspiria  

But don't count out: Amy Adams--Backseat, Vera Farmiga--The Front Runner, Margot Robbie--Mary, Queen of Scots, Amy Ryan--Beautiful Boy, and Sissy Spacek--The Old Man and the Gun

Best Supporting Actor:
Steve Carell AND/OR Sam Rockwell--Backseat
Timothy Chalamet--Beautiful Boy 
Joel Edgerton AND/OR Russell Crowe--Boy Erased
Jake Gyllenhaal--Wildlife
Daniel Kaluuya AND/OR Liam Neeson--Widows 

But don't count out: Kyle Chander--First Man, Adam Driver--BlacKkKlansman, Brendan Gleeson--The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Russell Hornsby--The Hate U Give, Matthew McConaughey--White Boy Rick


So, those are my thoughts. Which movies are you most excited for? Which ones do you think have good Oscar chances? Are there any movies you think I missed? There are bound to be some genuine Oscar contenders that haven't even occurred to me. Let me know in the comments!