Oscar Predictions 2014: Best [BLANK] Film

When people think about the best film of the year, the one that comes to mind is, of course, Best Picture. But when we say Best Picture, we mean best Full Length Feature Film. There are, in fact, six other categories which, essentially, award the best picture in their field-- it's just a more specific field. Of these categories, the only consistently mainstream one is the Best Animated Feature category-- although Best Documentary Feature and Best Foreign Language Film occasionally have some well-known films among the nominees-- like Oscar-winning documentaries March of the Penguins, An Inconvenient Truth, or Bowling for Columbine. But these more mainstream releases don’t always win. For example, famous documentaries such as Spellbound, Super Size Me, and Sicko all went home empty-handed on Oscar night. And that’s because the Oscar voters actually watch all of the films nominated, which most pundits, oddsmakers, and bloggers (including myself) have not done. This disparity can perhaps be best seen in the foreign-language film category. Take the case of Pan’s Labyrinth, which despite being a hit in the United States and receiving multiple other Oscar nominations, lost this award to the German film The Lives of Others. And I have to tell you, as much as I love Pan’s Labyrinth, The Lives of Others is one of the best films I’ve ever had the pleasure of watching—it had appeared on numerous critics’ Top Ten lists that year and very much deserved its triumph. And yes, reaction was negative as people who had not seen any of the nominees other than Pan’s Labyrinth were outraged at its supposed snub. This same ignorance has already been on display this year, with many on the internet being surprised that palme d’or winner Blue is the Warmest Color was not nominated. But…while the film is in a foreign language, it was ineligible to be nominated this year as it was released past the deadline in its home country of France. So its lack of a nomination was far from a snub—it was a certainty!

But I'm getting off track. Because I want to talk about the most overlooked categories-- the ones for short films-- Best Animated Short Film, Best Live Action Short Film, and Best Documentary Short Subject. These awards are a big deal for filmmakers. For those who make these films, there is no higher honor one can receive. But because they’re not big names and often don’t have a wide release, no one really cares about these awards. And I'm not saying that everyone has to watch these films—I know how expensive it is in both time and money to watch movies these days (and if you use…um…less legal methods, these films are often more difficult to locate) but they’re worth at least reading about. What do these documentary short subjects actually address? Even if you can’t see the whole film, you can often get a glimpse of the animation in the animated shorts, and they’re usually incredible. 

I learned about two fantastic short films from previous Oscars—both winners in the Live Action Short category. One is Six Shooter which was made by playwright Martin McDonagh, who has since made the fantastic feature-length films In Bruges and Seven Psychopaths, and Six Shooter is certainly on par with them. The other live-action short I’d like to recommend is a wonderful movie musical called West Bank Story which is, essentially, West Side Story but taking place between two rival falafel stands on the Gaza strip. The reason why I sought this film out, and in fact purchased it, was actually the speech that the filmmaker, Ari Sandel, gave at the Oscars, which championed the work of the independent filmmaker, the “little guy,” and the importance of the films in the categories below. Here’s a great interview with Sandel about winning the Oscar which ends with the full speech. You realize that, while big celebrities oftentimes give acceptance speeches at multiple awards ceremonies in their life, this is really, truly, the greatest moment in the winners of these particular categories. That’s why they’re often some of my favorite acceptance speeches. Don't go to the bathroom when these awards are announced-- the speeches are going to be the most earnest and wonderful of the night.

And if the encouragement of me and Sandel is not enough to get you to care about these awards, then remember that these are the categories that people just guess on for their ballots. So, these are the ones that can really help put you over the edge if you’re in any competitive Oscar betting pool.

But enough of my soapboxing-- let's actually predict who will win:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Nominees:

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Ernest & Celestine

Frozen

The Wind Rises

Will Win: Frozen

This is probably the biggest lock of the night. There's no way Frozen won't win this. I haven't seen the other films listed (Ernest & Celestine could be wonderful but has not been released in the United States yet) so I can't say who should win. But I will say that I wasn't as blown away by Frozen as many others were. It has a lot of flaws. But, still, it's a really enjoyable, beautifully animated film with some great music. It's hard to imagine there won't be big cheers when this one wins.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Nominees:

The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)

The Great Beauty (Italy)

The Hunt (Denmark)

The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

Omar (Palestine)

Will Win: The Hunt The Great Beauty

There are really only two films competing for this award: The Great Beauty from Italy, and The Hunt from Denmark. If any of the other films win, it will be a huge upset. Having seen both of these, I can say that they're two incredibly different films. Most are calling this one for The Great Beauty-- thinking that it will beat out its Scandinavian competitor. And I can see why. The film is one of the strangest (in a good way) that I've seen. It's almost as if Robert Altman were doing his interpretation of Bollywood. Its title is appropriate: it certainly is beautiful (many gorgeous shots of Italy) and is certainly great in its scope-- it's a sprawling film featuring many loosely connected scenes and themes. It's a wonderful and thought-provoking film. The Hunt, on the other hand, is much smaller. The story of a man falsely accused of molesting a child-- and the ensuing witch hunt on the part of his friends and family-- relies on subtlety, and has a wonderful performance from Mads Mikkelsen, who won the Best Actor award at Cannes. The emphasis is more on storytelling, which the film does superbly-- not to mention the fact that it handles a very difficult issue with surprising sensitivity and adeptness.

It's really impossible to compare the two. If The Great Beauty wins, I will understand why, and I won't be upset. And, as I said, it's probably the favorite here, with The Hunt simply a contender. But in this category, the Academy has a tendency to pick the smaller films. Consider the year that the wondrous and whimsical Amelie lost to the more dramatic No Man's Land from Bosnia & Herzegovina. This category has had no shortage of upsets, and I'm predicting one this year. I could be totally wrong, but I think it's going to be The Hunt.

However, if The Great Beauty wins, then it will mean that Italy will be officially tied with France for the most winners in this category.

EDITED: As it is now the morning before the Oscars, things have obviously changed. The Great Beauty has simply become too much of a favorite for it to be reasonable to pick anything else. Upsets are still always possible, but the odds of The Great Beauty winning have only increased since I originally published this, and the chances of The Hunt winning have all but disappeared. Both are great films and both should be seen, but The Great Beauty will be the winner tonight.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Nominees:

The Act of Killing

Cutie and the Boxer

Dirty Wars

The Square

20 Feet from Stardom

Will Win: The Act of Killing

 

This category always features amazing variety. The feel-good films tend to not have the best success here, as the category likes to award the more hard-hitting documentaries (the fact that March of the Penguins won is actually rather surprising) which would knock out Cutie and the Boxer and 20 Feet from Stardom this year. I think the big winner here is going to be The Act of Killing based solely on its truly unique premise: the film follows former executioners under the command of Pol Pot in 60's Cambodia as they are encouraged to recreate some of their murders in various film styles (such as Western, gangster film, and musical) and filmed the process. Disturbing and fascinating, it's the best bet.

And, to go back to the point that you should see these films, all of these documentaries with the exception of 20 Feet from Stardom are available on Netflix right now! Go watch them! Interestingly, The Square was actually released as an original film on Netflix, meaning that Netflix has garnered its first Oscar nomination.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT:

Nominees:

Feral

Get a Horse!

Mr. Hublot

Possessions

Room on the Broom

Will Win: Get a Horse!

This category is often unpredictable, but if there's a favorite it's Get a Horse! which is otherwise known as the short shown in theaters before Frozen.  The film's use of classic Disney characters, and a combination of old and new animation make it a fun and nostalgic pick. If not Get a Horse!, the other favorite would be Room on the Broom which is based on a children's book of the same name and features an all-star cast of British comedians (it's narrated by Simon Pegg, and also stars Gillian Anderson, Rob Brydon, Sally Hawkins, Davis Walliams, and Timothy Spall). It's perfectly fine, but the fact that it takes them over twenty minutes to tell what I imagine is, like, a twelve page book is kind of ridiculous. It's a fine movie for kids, but for adults it's incredibly predictable and tedious (and, even for kids, it's hardly groundbreaking). The only reason it got nominated is for the names involved...and that might be enough to make it a spoiler to win. Although it shouldn't-- it doesn't hold a candle to any of the other nominees here.

Should Win: Mr. Hublot

Get a Horse! and Room on the Broom are nice, but neither comes close to actually being the strongest of these films-- especially not Room on the Broom which is perfectly adequate but is really nothing special and goes on way too long. And while Get a Horse! is really good, its animation is really not all that impressive, especially when compared to the other films in this category.

My two favorites are Mr. Hublot and Feral, two very different films. Mr Hublot is the story of a lonely man in a steampunk mechanized world who adopts a dog. It's simplistic, but the story it tells is actually really wonderful, to the point that I got a bit choked up towards the end. And the level of detail that goes into the animation is really extraordinary. My close second is Feral which tells the story of a feral child who is brought into society by a hunter. The animation is unlike anything I've ever seen before, and I was especially impressed by the amount of expression animator Daniel Sousa extracted from these characters considering they don't have any faces.

I wanted to make a Wolf of Wall Street joke, but nothing I couldn't come up with anything clever.

Get a Horse!, for me, comes in a clear third place in this lineup, and is not even close to being on the same playing field as Mr. Hublot or Feral (for me, it does beat out an interesting Japanese film Possessions about a traveler who escapes a temple of horrors through the use of his sewing kit). Really, as long as it's not Room on the Broom I'll be happy. If that wins then...I just give up.

Should Have Been Nominated: A La Francaise, The Missing Scarf, The Blue Umbrella

At the presentation of short films that I went to, after the five nominees played, I was ready to leave...but then another film started playing. It was called A La Francaise and the screen announced that it has received "commendation." Not only did this film play, but two other films played after it-- none of them received nominations, but they had all received a commendation of some sort. I'm not really sure what the technicalities of this are, but I have to say...these three films were some of the best of the showing, and certainly deserved nominations above three of the actual nominees. 

Pixar's The Blue Umbrella was cute and clever, A la Francaise was hilarious, and both were exceptionally well done. But, the third commended film, The Missing Scarf, was by far one of the most brilliant things I've ever seen. Using simple and whimsical paper animation to tell the story of a squirrel looking for a missing scarf, the film starts off rather plainly. But then...it takes a turn towards the existential and the absurd. By the end of the film, I could hardly breathe because I was laughing so hard-- when it is released for purchase on February 25th, I will be the first in line to download it so that I can watch it again: the first time I was too distracted by my disbelief that what was happening on screen could possibly be occurring. It was simply amazing, I cannot think of anything else like it, and cannot possibly hope to explain its genius in text-- you really do have to see it for yourself. It alone is worth the price of admission. As far as I'm now concerned, its lack of nomination is the biggest snub of the year. Oh, and did I mention that it is narrated by George Takei?

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:

Nominees:

Aquel no era yo (That Wasn't Me)

Avant que de tout perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)

Helium

Pitaako mun kaikki hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)

The Voorman Problem

Will Win and Should Win: Helium

When I originally published this post, I called this category for The Voorman Problem. The reason was that I had read that most people were predicting a win for it, so it seemed like a sensible thing to do. However, now that I've seen the films, I've changed my mind. Here's why:

I understand why people think The Voorman Problem will win. It's a really interesting film, based on a short story, about a psychiatrist who examines a prison inmate named Voorman who thinks he's a god. You learn very quickly, however, that Voorman might be right (as a proposed test, he makes the nation of Belgium disappear). It's well done, but not really that suspenseful-- you immediately know that this character wields tremendous power, so there's no real mind game played-- the psychiatrist never holds all of the cards. And the ending comes rather abruptly, ending on a bit of a "huh" rather than a bang.

But, despite this, I understand why a lot of people are predicting a win for this one: celebrities. None of the five films nominated are American, with the other entries coming from Spain, France, Denmark, and Finland. The Voorman Problem is from the U.K., and features performances from internationally recognized actors Martin Freeman and Tom Hollander. If you were looking at things statistically to determine which film would win, a la Nate Silver, this film has all of the key elements to put it over the edge.

The two main players in The Voorman Problem

But since seeing the films, I have changed my mind. And I have changed my mind for one simple reason: I simply refuse to believe that, of the people watching these films, enough people would name it their number one pick.

Of the nominees, there's really only one that will definitely not win-- that's the Finnish Do I Have to Take Care of Everything? which is perfectly nice, but is a lightweight comedy that clocks in at less than half of the running time as the second shortest film. It's fine, but not really Oscar material-- to compete it would have had to have been a laugh-out-loud riot, and it really isn't. It's fine, though. I also don't think a win is likely for the Spanish That Wasn't Me, an emotionally powerful but also highly flawed film about two Spanish doctors kidnapped by African child soldiers.

The Voorman Problem places third for me, and just like with Get a Horse!, it is a distant third behind my two favorites of the program. My pick for the win-- because it WILL win if everyone is as moved by it as I was-- is the Danish entry Helium, about a custodian at a hospital who tells stories to a dying boy about the magical world of Helium where he claims the boy will go to when he dies. It's a beautifully shot, beautifully written, and beautifully acted film which had tears streaming down my face. Absolutely incredible.

I could also see voters responding to my second favorite-- the French film Just Before Losing Everything which starts of slowly but soon comes to a frightening head. The film follows the four hours before a woman and her children are attempting to flee their home and start a new life to get away from her abusive husband. Things are going okay, until her unaware husband shows up at the supermarket in which they're hiding out. It is a tense film, and of the nominees, is the one which feels like a full-length feature-- you become incredibly invested in these characters and their well-being. It would be my runaway winner, if Helium just didn't tug on my heartstrings so much.

If you want to do the safe thing, choose The Voorman Problem. I won't be surprised if it wins. But, I'm guessing that a lot of people calling this award for that film have not seen the full lineup (few people have). And watching these films together, I just cannot believe that The Voorman Problem will beat out two clearly superior films. I'm calling an upset in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY-- SHORT SUBJECT

Nominees:

CaveDigger

Facing Fear

Karama Has No Walls

The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

Will Win: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved Me Life

Alas, I've yet to see the films in these categories, but hope to before the Oscars and will update this page accordingly. I've heard of some support for CaveDigger, but The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life seems to be the odds-on favorite here.

Thoughts on my predictions? Thoughts on my rant on the importance of these categories? Has anyone else had a chance to see these short films? Let me know in the comments!

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Screenplay

With the Oscars fast approaching, I'm going through my predictions for the awards category by category. So far, I've covered Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor. Feel free to check those out. 

Now, here are my predictions for which films will take home the awards for best screenplay-- both original and adapted.


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Nominees:
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska


Will Win: American Hustle

An impressive lineup, the nominee with the best shot at winning best picture is also the film with the best shot of winning best screenplay. And why not? It's a smart script which tells a convoluted story in a concise and entertaining manner. But perhaps the biggest boon for it in this category is that it is not really a major player in any other major category. Despite the film's warm reception by the Academy (it is tied for the most nominations) and its contender status early in the race, the film's momentum has cooled and it looks like it's going to mostly be out of the running. None of the four nominated performers are frontrunners (Jennifer Lawrence has a chance, but she's looking less and less likely) and it will most likely finish in second place for Best Picture which, of course, is as good as coming in ninth. And the film is not a major player in any of the "minor" awards either. The Academy will want to give this film something, and Original Screenplay is looking like its only bet. If American Hustle does not receive any awards, by the way, it will be tied with The Turning Point and The Color Purple for having the most nominations without a win.

For a while, it looked like this category might have some competition from Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine, but with the renewed controversy surrounding him (and the fact that Blue Jasmine is far from his best work) it's very unlikely. Nebraska's screenplay is nice, but unassuming-- which is the same reason it won't win other awards like Best Director or Best Cinematography either. And Dallas Buyers Club is a strong film, but the screenplay is not necessarily one if its main strengths. That means that American Hustle really only has one competitor. And while I think Hustle has the definite edge, it's possible that this other film will win. And, coincidentally, it's the one that I think should win!

Should Win: Her

Spike Jonze is best known as a director-- and has directed some of the best screenplays around (notably Being John Malkovich and Adaptation, both by Charlie Kaufman). I like Kaufman's screenplays better, but Jonze does a great job and puts forth a screenplay which should win on its originality alone. I wasn't as swept off my feet by the relationship between Theodore and Samantha as many were-- I thought it was nice, but wouldn't call it the "most believable movie romance of the year," as I've seen it touted by others. But the fact that Jonze made the film work at all is a testament to both his direction and his writing.



ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Nominees:
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street    


Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

As with the Original Screenplay category, the winner here will be the one that has the best chance of winning the Best Picture award. 12 Years a Slave will get it. There's not really much else to say.

The only real competition 12 Years a Slave has here is from The Wolf of Wall Street for its fast-paced and Scorsesean script. There is also the sentimental choice of Before Midnight. It's the only one of these five to not be nominated for Best Picture and while these other films have multiple nominations in other major categories, this is Before Midnight's only nomination. For those who don't know, it is the third in a trilogy (the first two were Before Sunrise and Before Sunset) that started in 1995-- all three films star Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke as the same characters. Richard Linklater's trilogy is rather beloved and the Academy might want to give the whole endeavor some recognition. For me, it's the most likely upset here, but I still call it for the safer bet of 12 Years a Slave.

Should Win: Philomena

 12 Years a Slave is a great film, and it's an important film. But for me, it succeeds because of Solomon Northup's devastating story, Steve McQueen's powerful direction, the beautiful performances of Chiwetel Ejiofor and Lupita Nyong'o, and the sheer willingness of the production design to make the audience uncomfortable when necessary. I'm not trying to knock the film at all, but, for me, the screenplay is really lacking. The dialogue feels clunky, and unnatural. If not for the intense realism of the production design, then I think the screenplay would just feel very unbelievable. As a script it's seriously lacking for me, and I really don't think it should win here.

So which film would I choose? I'd choose Philomena-- which I've already gushed about in other posts. Now, this is a film which also features strong performances and direction, as well as a great story, but the screenplay happens to be one of its major strengths and I'm so glad it got some recognition in this category. The story of Philomena Lee trying to find her long lost son takes many surprising twists and turns, and they are revealed perfectly-- giving the audience just enough information to keep them on their toes. When a plot twist occurs, it packs a mean punch. The screenplay is wonderfully paced, and manages to keep a consistent tone throughout-- which is no small feat considering the film's wild mixture of charming comedy and serious story of deception. This film manages to do heartwarming without the cheese, and paints a realistic portrait of two of the most endearing characters of film this year (Philomena as played by Dench, and former reporter Martin Sixsmith, played by Steve Coogan in an underrated performance).


What are your thoughts? Am I being unfair to 12 Years a Slave? Which films do you think had the best screenplays of the year? Let me know in the comments!

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

So, I promise this blog will focus on other subjects come March when the Oscars are over, but for now, it's still Oscar time and I am in an Oscar frenzy, which means it's time to start with the predictions of who will win the coveted Academy Award. It's almost a month before the Oscars, so things are still subject to change, but despite the wide array of great films this year, things are starting to settle in and the frontrunners in the major awards have already become fairly clear.

The race for Best Actress in a Leading Role has been interesting one, with many wild cards. Here's my prediction.

Nominees:

Amy Adams as Sydney Prosser—American Hustle

Cate Blanchett as Jasmine Francis—Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock as Ryan Stone—Gravity

Judi Dench as Philomena Lee—Philomena

Meryl Streep as Violet Weston—August: Osage County

Will Win: Cate Blanchett—Blue Jasmine

Although Sandra Bullock was initially seen as the frontrunner here after her (almost) solo performance in Gravity, Cate Blanchett has emerged as the real favorite here. Her critical acclaim has brought her multiple awards already, and it feels like an Oscar is the next logical step. Bullock still has a shot, and I've started to hear some whisperings of Amy Adams having a shot (this is her fifth nomination and she has yet to win). But this is Blanchett's award to lose.

Should Win: Judi Dench—Philomena

So, Cate Blanchett is great in Blue Jasmine, and probably has the most interesting and objectively "best" performance out of these five. So I understand why she's the frontrunner and will be perfectly happy when she wins. But...I can't bring myself to name her as my "should win" pick. Because as good as she is in it...I just really dislike this film. This has nothing to do with the resurgence of controversy surrounding Woody Allen (I typically love his films), I just don't like it as a film. At all. And it makes sense that people tend to vote for the films they like. Just like how the distaste for the failed reboot of The Lone Ranger might cost it several technical awards such as visual effects and makeup, I don't want to tip my hat to Blanchett in this instance because I really dislike the film as a whole. Sorry, Cate. I'm sure you'll be fine. Meryl Streep can typically do no wrong...but she does in August: Osage County, giving in an overdone performance which like so many other well-intentioned parts of this movie, just does not work. This leaves Adams, Bullock, and Dame Judi Dench. And...it's just really tough for me to vote against Dench. She's so lovely, and I cannot imagine anyone else playing the role of Philomena Lee. There's something just so intrinsically charming about Dench. You immediately root for her. You feel her sadness, you feel her confusion, and you feel her anger. Even through a character who tends to treat the world with a smile. As the screenplay is written, Philomena is uneducated and much of the dialogue paints Philomena as naive and simple. But Dench manages to make sure she does not at any point come across as stupid-- simply kind and inexperienced. Throughout the film, we see Philomena at her highest and lowest points, and Dench is lovely and heartbreaking at the same time. Basically, Dame Judi Dench can do no wrong.

Should Have Been Nominated: Emma Thompson—Saving Mr. Banks

Saving Mr. Banks is a strange case for me. It's a good film, certainly. But it's very heavy-handed. We see the same scenes over and over again (seriously, the film spends an hour and a half making sure we know that P.L. Travers is cranky and that her dad is an alcoholic) and I understand why it was not as warmly received as originally anticipated. But Thompson is unequivocally brilliant. She commits to the role of Travers so fully that she really did deserve a nomination, and it's a shame that she didn't earn one this year.



What are your thoughts? Who will/should win? And which performance should have been recognized? Do you agree with me? Do you think I'm way off the mark? Why didn't I talk about June Squibb more even though she gave one of my favorite performances of the year? Let me know your thoughts in the comments! 

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

So, I promise this blog will focus on other subjects come March when the Oscars are over, but for now, it's still Oscar time and I am in an Oscar frenzy, which means it's time to start with the predictions of who will win the coveted Academy Award. It's almost a month before the Oscars, so things are still subject to change, but despite the wide array of great films this year, things are starting to settle in and the frontrunners in the major awards have already become fairly clear.

Here is my prediction for Best Actress in a Supporting Role.

Nominees:

Sally Hawkins as Ginger—Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence as Rosalyn Rosenfeld—American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o as Patsey—12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts as Barbara Weston-Fordham—August: Osage County

June Squibb as Kate Grant—Nebraska

Will Win: Lupita Nyong’o —12 Years a Slave

There are two contenders for this award: Nyong'o and Jennifer Lawrence. Two young and promising actresses who deliver incredible performances, and who are each going to handily beat the three more established actresses. Just like with the Best Picture race, this means that once again 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle are going head to head. And just like like in that race, it's really unfair to compare these performances. Both are very strong, but very different. It's tough to say that one performance is objectively better than the other. Following her Golden Globe win, Jennifer Lawrence gained a bit of momentum and seemed like she could potentially win an Oscar in back to back years (only five people have done this to date: Tom Hanks, Katharine Hepburn, Luise Rainer, Jason Robards, and Spencer Tracy). And this could certainly still happen. Lawrence is not out of the race. But, Nyong'o has taken off and is the distinct frontrunner. The race isn't 100% decided in her favor, but she definitely has a comfortable lead and is currently the favorite going into Oscar night. And if the momentum continues as it has been, then her frontrunner status is just going to solidify.

Should Win:  Lupita Nyong’o—12 Years a Slave

Nyong'o deserves her frontrunner status. She's truly remarkable in the film and gives a powerful and brilliant performance. Her future is bright. Many of the discussions that I've read about this race, however, have felt the need to knock Lawrence in their support of Nyong'o. This I don't see the need for, as  I think Lawrence is absolutely incredible in this film, and delivers a performance utterly unlike those she has given in the past-- demonstrating true versatility. As Lawrence has become a critical and media darling, it is easy to forget how young she is. At only 23, she is headlining a major film franchise, has been nominated for three Academy Awards, and when she won the Oscar last year, was the second-youngest person to win the award in Oscars history. It's impressive stuff and it's easy to look at Lupita Nyong'o as the underdog in this match-up. But I would point out that Lupita is not a nobody. She graduated from the Yale School of Drama and has received world-class training that Lawrence has not received. This is certainly not to say that either is at an advantage, just to say that both have taken very different paths to get where they are, and both have worked very hard for this place. Both are deserving of a nomination. There's a great quote by Alfre Woodard which I saw shared a lot after Lawrence's Golden Globes win.

"You know that brilliant, stunningly beautiful, and poised Lupita Nyong'o? 12 Years a Slave is an incredible launch of a career. And this is her first thing. We will see if, [as opposed to] another brilliant young woman we saw, Jennifer Lawrence, we'll see the trajectory of her path and what she's offered after that. Then we'll know whether things have changed or if Lupita is consigned to playing second banana, ensemble person for the next ten years."

It's a great quote. But I would encourage people to not read this as a condemnation for Lawrence, or what Lawrence has accomplished. Woodard, in fact, calls Lawrence brilliant. The quote is addressing a much larger issue, and doesn't refer to awards ceremonies. The important thing is not whether Nyong'o wins the Oscar this year-- the important thing is where her career leads after this film. It might be naive, optimistic, and privileged of me to say this, but I think that she's going to continue to do great things. Honestly, I'll be happy if either Nyong'o or Lawrence wins this award. But I still give the edge to Nyong'o.

Of the other nominees, I did really like June Squibb's work. But the other two are frustrating nominees for me. Sally Hawkins was kind of a non-entity in Blue Jasmine and I can't help but feel that her nomination here has nothing to do with her work in that film, and everything to do with her being snubbed when she wasn't nominated for Happy-Go-Lucky. And then there's Julia Roberts, who delivers just an okay performance in the supremely disappointing August: Osage County-- a weak attempt to capture the brilliant, Pulitzer-winning play on film.

 

Should Have Been Nominated: Naomie Harris—Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

This was a tough one to pin down. The big snub in this category was Oprah Winfrey, who delivered really strong work in Lee Daniels' The Butler. In fact, early buzz of that film was that Winfrey would win this award. But instead, she and the film were left empty-handed. But her work is really solid, and she certainly deserved a nomination over Hawkins and Roberts.

But two of my favorite performances this year came from actresses in supporting roles who had no buzz whatsoever. The first is the always excellent Melissa Leo in Prisoners who delivers a film-changing scene. You can't take your eyes off of her. But, it's a small role, and so my pick for who really should have been nominated in this category is Naomie Harris, who portrays Winnie Mandela in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom.

The film received mixed reviews, and I personally thought it was imperfect, but better than people were giving it credit for. And while there was buzz for Idris Elba as Nelson, there was no buzz for Harris who, quite frankly out-acts Elba in every scene she's in (and I love Idris Elba). It's an incredible, powerful performance which makes the film worth watching. She finds Mandela's charm, her anger, her sadness, her passion. Every line is delivered with full emotional force. I truly don't understand why this performance has not received more accolades.

What are your thoughts? Who will/should win? And which performance should have been recognized? Do you agree with me? Do you think I'm way off the mark? How do you weigh in on the media-invented rivalry between Nyong'o and Lawrence? Am I missing something in my discussion of this race? Let me know in the comments!