Oscars 2019: Films to Watch

It's odd to think we're already almost 2/3 of the way through the year. And as the months of summer blockbusters come to a close, the exciting time of Oscar season is going to creep up. Starting in late September, films that producers think have a real shot of awards season glory are going to start being released, and it's always an exciting time for an awards season nut like me. What's amazing to me is how, looking at things like release dates, film descriptions, and past awards, we can already start to get an idea of what next year's Oscars might look like even if we haven't seen any of the films that will be in contention yet. And this year is especially mysterious. Unlike last year, when future Best Picture nominees like Get Out and Dunkirk had already been released, very few of the films that have already been released feel like they have staying power for awards season. Below, I've detailed 22 movies that seem to have genuine Oscar hopes and might be on everybody's lips in a few months' time. And also discuss what might hold these films back.

As always when I talk about the Oscars, I want to make it known that being recognized by the Oscars is not the same as being a great movie. There are multiple movies coming out soon that I'm REALLY excited about and think will be great, but which I don't think the Oscars are going to respond to so I've not included here.


First Man

What Is It?: A Neil Armstrong biopic from Oscar-winning director Damien Chazelle, with a star-studded cast led by Ryan Gosling as Armstrong.
Why It Will Win: This is probably the most Oscar-friendly film yet to come out in 2018. Chazelle has had a great track record with the Oscars, with both Whiplash and La La Land picking up multiple awards even though neither won the top prize. First Man is his most Oscar-y film yet and could take Chazelle to the top podium. It's probably the odds-on favorite on paper.
Why It Won't: The Post seems like a good film to compare this too. That film seemed to have everything going for it leading into the Oscar season, and while it did get a Best Picture nomination, it never seemed to truly be in contention to win. This might be a project that just can't live up to its expectations. Also, in past years, the Academy has made great strides in trying to broaden its horizons and not just award films about white men. Well, of the 18 cast members listed on the film's wikipedia page, all 18 are white, and 17 are men. I think it's likely that First Man will score a ton of nominations, but it might be a more giant step to take home the biggest trophy of the night.

If Beale Street Could Talk

What Is It?: Moonlight director Barry Jenkins is back, and directing the film adaptation of the beloved James Baldwin novel of the same name.
Why It Will Win: With Moonlight, Jenkins became one of the most sought-after directors in the business practically overnight. If he can bring the same level of artistry to If Beale Street Could Talk, it's tough to imagine this film won't be really amazing. Moonlight entered the Oscar race as a longshot, now Jenkins gets to tour the awards circuit as a bona fide frontrunner.
Why It Won't: Film adaptations of novels often get nominations, but don't actually win Best Picture as much as one might think. No adaptation of a novel has won Best Picture since No Country For Old Men in 2007. In recent years, acclaimed film adaptations of novels that seemed to be destined for Oscar glory (like Call Me by Your Name, Brooklyn, Room, and Silver Linings Playbook) have consistently ended up losing steam as the Oscars grew nearer. Also, the Academy likes to spread the love. A Barry Jenkins film winning Best Picture just two years ago might mean it's just too early for another Jenkins film to win again. Lastly, the cast is mostly made up of unknowns, and while that doesn't completely sink the film's chances, it does mean the film faces an uphill battle because it has to rely on Jenkins' clout alone.

Widows

What Is It?: Steve McQueen hasn't released a film since 12 Years a Slave, but is now back with the much-anticipated Widows. He's armed himself with a star-studded cast lead by the incomparable Viola Davis, and is working with a screenplay from Gone Girl's Gillian Flynn
Why It Will Win: Again, the pedigree here is hard to beat. A potential contender for directing, writing, and acting, fans of McQueen have been waiting for this movie for a really long time. If it can fire on all cylinders, it should be a fixture of the awards season.
Why It Won't: Like most of the films on this list, it hasn't been released yet. So it remains to be seen if this film can actually live up to its incredible promise. But, I'm reaching--the outlook for Widows looks really good.

Backseat

What Is It?: After Adam McKay found surprise Oscar success with The Big Short, he's back with another Oscar bait film. This time, it's a biopic of former vice-president Dick Cheney, and features a star-studded cast led by Christian Bale.
Why It Will Win: This film looks really promising, and Bale has received Oscar buzz ever since an unrecognizable picture was released of him as Cheney. Plus the supporting cast features a few heavyweight Oscar contenders, including Amy Adams as Lynne Cheney, Steve Carell as Donald Rumsfeld, and last year's Supporting Actor winner Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush. If these roles are weighty and not just cameos, it seems like there will be a huge Oscar campaign behind this film. And, it's topical: a lot of Hollywood will relish the chance to award a film about a manipulative Republican in the White House.
Why It Won't: The topical nature of the film's subject matter might work against it if voters feel it hits too close to home. And we don't know the film's tone. While it's unlikely the film is going to cast Cheney in an especially positive light, if McKay tries to go for any sympathy towards the reviled figure, he might face quite a bit of backlash. As great as The Big Short did during awards season, I personally was not a fan of the film, and so I'm skeptical of whether or not this film will navigate the tricky task of making a biopic of a reviled figure.

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

What Is It?: This film from the Coen Brothers is one of the more mysterious ones on this list. Very little is known about it except that it's a Western starring Coen favorite Tim Blake Nelson.
Why It Will Win: Even though we know very little about it, what we know is exciting. The Coen Brothers have done well with the Oscars before, and their Westerns in particular tend to be among their most acclaimed films (like Best Picture winner No Country for Old Men and Best Picture nominee True Grit). We'll know more when we see a trailer, but for now The Ballad of Buster Scruggs seems like a promising enigma.
Why It Won't: Well, like I said, we don't know much. This might be a comedy, and the Coen Brothers' comedies tend to not do as well at the Oscars as their dramas. We just don't know enough about this movie to firmly call it a frontrunner yet.

Boy Erased

What Is It?: Joel Edgerton directs this film based on a memoir about a gay teen sent to a conversion therapy program. Lucas Hedges stars as the boy, with Nicole Kidman and Russell Crowe as his Baptist parents, and Edgerton himself as the head therapist of the program.
Why It Will Win: Conversion therapy is a terrifying practice, that still happens today a lot more than we realize, and as a subject matter it feels ripe for cinematic treatment. Indeed, this year there are two films set in conversion therapy centers, the other being the recently-released indie The Miseducation of Cameron Post. Hedges has been on fire lately--after receiving a deserved nomination for Manchester by the Sea two years ago, he had principal roles in both Lady Bird and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri last year, and this project seems on track to continue his Oscar streak. The subject matter and caliber of actors behind the project just scream Oscar, so it's easy to see why it's one of the more anticipated prestige films of the year.
Why It Won't: Although it has a trailer and a release date, the film has yet to be included in any film festivals, which is really strange. The buzz it has is all based on hypotheticals as opposed to concrete reactions. As other Oscar contenders start being seen, Boy Erased might be left in the dust unless it finds a festival to debut it soon (some are speculating it'll headline Telluride, which doesn't announce its lineup in advance). The other thing is that Joel Edgerton isn't yet cemented as an Oscar director. His directorial debut, The Gift, is good, but not OUTSTANDING, and so it remains to be seen whether his behind-the-camera efforts can elevate the film.

Beautiful Boy

What Is It?: This biographical drama is about a teenager's (Timothee Chalamet) struggle with meth addiction, told through the eyes of his father (Steve Carell).
Why It Will Win: The subject matter is really Oscar-y, and the true story nature of the film will make it even more appealing to the Academy. It's sure to be a real tearjerker.
Why It Won't: This is the English language debut of Felix Von Groenigan, who previously received an Oscar nomination for Foreign Language Film for The Broken Circle Breakdown. Von Groenigan is certainly acclaimed, but he's not a huge enough name yet to automatically draw the attention of the Academy. So despite the strong cast (which also features Amy Ryan and Maura Tierney), the main draw here is the film's subject matter.And while the Academy loves difficult subject matter like this, it's also a delicate line to walk when bringing such subject matter to film, because if a film is depressing and overwrought, it tends be tough to actually root for. It's uncertain just how well this film will do in the awards season, but it's undoubtedly one to watch.

On the Basis of Sex

What Is It?: A biographical drama about Ruth Bader Ginsburg, with Oscar nominee Felicity Jones as the notorious RBG herself.
Why It Will Win: Ruth Bader Ginsburg is one of the most beloved figures of the political left. And given the current battles waging in the court, and the acclaimed documentary RBG also released this year, she's an especially topical figure. It's really hard to imagine the Oscars not paying attention to a biopic like this.
Why It Won't:  Biopics tend to be Oscar nominees rather than reliable Oscar winners. With Jones' leading performance, it's easy to compare this film to one like The Theory of Everything--a biopic that received mixed critical reception, and got a Best Picture nomination on principle but was never really in consideration for the win. Plus, director Mimi Leder's previous efforts (like infamously failed Oscar bait Pay it Forward) don't inspire much confidence.

Welcome to Marwen

What Is It?: Inspired by the documentary Marwencol, the film follows Mark Hogancamp (Steve Carell), an assault victim who constructs a miniature town to help with his recovery. Robert Zemeckis directs.
Why It Will Win: This film has a lot of potential. It will tackle some serious subject matter, but also has opportunities for whimsy and fantasy, both of which are strengths of Zemeckis. It should be a crowdpleaser--a film palatable enough for all audiences while also appealing to more the more snobbish of film buffs. Plus, Steve Carell is set to have a great year, appearing in three different potential Oscar contenders, so his presence should also boost the film's appeal. Personally, I have to say I'm really excited for this one and think it might be a dark horse contender, but that's based on instinct more than anything else.
Why It Won't: Zemeckis is a brilliant filmmaker, but it's been a while since the Academy has really taken notice of him. His more recent potential Oscar contenders like Flight, The Walk, and Allied have just not gotten attention from the Academy. And while Carell's presence here could help, it also could hurt if his own Oscar campaign ends up focusing on another film. If, for example, it becomes clear that he's more likely to get an Oscar for Beautiful Boy, then why put money into boosting him here? Plus, the film's inevitable quirkiness might be more strange than charming. We'll have to wait and see.

Roma

No images from Roma have been released yet, so here's Alfonso Cuaron with a camera.

What Is It?: Alfonso Cuaron hasn't released a film since Gravity, but he's finally back this year with Roma, about the life of a Mexican family in the 1970s.
Why It Will Win: Cuaron is probably best known for big budget films like Gravity and Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, but he got his start and first earned his reputation by making quiet, powerful dramas (everyone should see Y Tu Mama Tambien). We know Cuaron can makes films like this really well, and now that he's on the Academy's radar, it would be great to see a film like this rewarded.
Why It Won't: For one thing, much of the film is in Spanish, and the Academy has still never awarded Best Picture to a foreign language film. But the biggest obstacle Roma faces on the way to the Best Picture podium is that it's being distributed by Netflix. The Academy has a lot of resistance towards streaming services, and has not been kind to any Netflix film that isn't a documentary. Even last year's excellent Mudbound, which because the first non-documentary Netflix film to earn any Oscar nominations, missed the Best Picture race. The Oscars just don't seem ready to validate Netflix as a legitimate film distributor.

A Star is Born

What Is It?: A remake of the 1937 film, now as a musical! The film is a passion project for Bradley Cooper, who stars in it, produces it, co-wrote the screenplay, and is making his directorial debut. It also stars Lady Gaga.
Why It Will Win: The movie musical can still bring in the Oscars when it's done well, and A Star is Born is speculated to be both a critical and commercial hit. Cooper has been an Oscars darling for a while and has a lot of Academy goodwill working for him. The secret weapon of the film just might be Lady Gaga, though, who has gotten a lot of great early buzz. Her musical numbers in the film, many of which she helped write, should be standouts, and having already won acting awards for her television work, the chances of seeing Lady Gaga at the Oscars next year seem really promising.
Why It Won't: It is really, really tough to direct yourself to win an acting Oscar. So far, the only person to have done so is Laurence Olivier in Hamlet, and Bradley Cooper isn't exactly Laurence Olivier. So much of the film is resting on Cooper's shoulders, and the truth is that he just is unproven as a director up until now, so the film's success is a bit of a mystery. This has the potential to be a real crowdpleaser, but even if everyone loves it, the story itself might be too lightweight to be a serious contender. Some see it as being the next La La Land, but I worry it might be more like The Greatest Showman.

The Front Runner

What Is It?: A biographical dark comedy from Jason Reitman about Senator Gary Hart (Hugh Jackman), a one-time Presidential candidate in 1988 whose career was ruined because of an extramarital affair.
Why It Will Win: It's easy to forget just how great of a filmmaker Jason Reitman is. His films are really solid, and he's been recognized with Best Picture nominations in the past for Juno and Up in the Air. He's already released one of my favorite films of the year so far--the criminally underappreciated Tully--but it seems like his Oscar campaign is going to be devoted solely on The Front Runner, which shows his confidence in the project. This film is a bit of a dark horse. It could easily be forgotten, but if it's as good as we know a Reitman film can be, it might also sweep. It might be a longshot, but it could also be in contention for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actor (Hugh Jackman as Hart) and  Best Supporting Actress (Vera Farmiga as Hart's wife, Lee). Knowing Reitman, there will assuredly be some commentary on the fact that our current President has had multiple extramarital affairs, and the Academy is bound to respond to that.
Why It Won't: Again, since the film hasn't been released yet, it's tough to know how to respond. And even if the film is great, that doesn't mean that the Academy will take notice, as great Reitman films like Thank You For Smoking and Young Adult have been left out in the cold. Plus, if the Academy is looking at a political film, The Front Runner might lose votes in comparison to the better-financed Backseat.

The Other Side of the Wind

What Is It?: This one is pretty incredible, and really exciting for any film historian out there. This is an Orson Welles film made during the 1970s that was never finished or released. Now, through a lot of work (and cooperation by the Welles estate) the film has been completed and will be officially released by Netflix this year. The mockumentary is, quite fittingly, about the passage of time, and is said to be a beautiful and touching snapshot of Hollywood at the time.
Why It Will Win: This is a no-brainer. How often is there a new film released by one of the greatest filmmakers of all time, over 30 years after that filmmaker's death? The Other Side of the Wind's existence alone is remarkable. In the process of completing it, the film has been screened for many top professionals in the industry during various parts of the film's completion, and all have said it's extraordinary and incredibly moving to watch.
Why It Won't: Well, there's a question of whether it will even be eligible for the Oscars. Technically, it feels like it should be. Films are, after all, eligible for Oscars based on their release date, but this is going to be up for discussion with the Academy. And then there's the fact that most of the individuals who could win for the film are dead. That's certainly not a prerequisite, but some Oscar voters might feel it's unfair to award the work of someone from over 40 years ago as opposed to a contemporary, especially one who is actively campaigning. And, lastly, there's no telling how much the film actually holds up. This could be a film with niche appeal, and might fall short when compared side-by-side with more current films. It's a tough case--the Oscars have never been faced with a film quite like this one and it's tough to know what the result will be. But I wouldn't be surprised to see the film at least acknowledged; perhaps there will be a special Oscar given to the team that worked to finish the film.

Wildlife

What Is It?: An independent film that marks the directorial debut of Paul Dano. It received raves at Sundance, particularly for Carey Mulligan's leading performance.
Why It Will Win: Wildlife received nearly universal praise when it premiered at Sundance earlier this year. And every year, we see future Best Picture winners and nominees that creep up through word of mouth. If the acclaim that Wildlife initially received continues upon its October release, it could be like Room. Even better, it could be like Moonlight. Also, it's worth noting that while Paul Dano has now stepped behind the camera, he's not actually in the film, which tends to lead to better results for actors-turned-directors. Just like with Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig last year.
Why It Won't: Sundance has grown in acclaim over the years, but the phrase "lots of buzz at Sundance" still doesn't mean a lot. It's a festival that caters to a very specific type of film, and those films tend to not always find mainstream success. Even when a film out of Sundance is really great, it just tends to not have a lot of overlap with the Oscars. Each year, there's usually only one or two films to get onto the Oscars' radar, and those are almost always screened out of competition. In fact, only three films that competed at Sundance in the last decade have received Oscar nominations, and none have ever won. Wildlife might end up doing better at the Spirit Awards as opposed to the Oscars.

Suspiria

What Is It?: A remake of Dario Argento's masterpiece of Italian giallo horror, remade by Luca Guadagnino with a cast led by Dakota Johnson and Tilda Swinton.
Why It Will Win: Suspiria is pretty beloved film. It's a masterpiece, which has been INCREDIBLY influential, especially in the horror genre, and is still the scariest film I've ever seen. Producers have been trying to remake it for years, and multiple remakes have been announced and then scrapped. But Guadagnino's has actually come through, and the trailer that was released looks really, really cool. It seems like it keeps the spooky, avant-garde spirit of the original while also announcing its own distinct vision. And while it's not a typical Oscar film, the early looks at the film have people excited.
Why It Won't: The Oscars don't like horror. Only one horror film has ever won Best Picture, and Suspiria is DEFINITELY going to be full-on horror. It's a real long shot here, even for a nomination. But, ever since the Best Picture field expanded to up to 10 nominees, this is the exact kind of film that has a chance it ordinarily wouldn't have had.

The Favourite

What Is It?: Yorgos Lanthimos directs this period film about two cousins (Oscar-winners Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone) in a fierce battle to gain the favor of Queen Anne (Olivia Colman). The film has been described as "a bawdy, acerbic tale of royal intrigue, passion, envy, and betrayal." Weisz has also said in an interview that it's a "funnier, sex driven All About Eve."
Why It Will Win: Lanthimos has gained a tremendous following in just the last few years, with a reputation for creating absolutely bonkers artsy films that are creative and twisted. The Favourite sounds like potentially his most Oscar-friendly film to date, and the Oscars LOVE when an arthouse filmmaker helms a more marketable film. The trailer looks really promising and it might be Lanthimos' time to finally enter the big race.
Why It Won't: If you've never seen a Yorgos Lanthimos film, you don't really understand just how fucking weird they are. The Lobster scored a screenplay nomination a couple of years ago, but his last film The Killing of a Sacred Deer was shut out, presumably for being just too strange and heavy. My guess is that Lanthimos will get to the Oscars eventually. But it's not certain that The Favourite is the film that will get him there.

The Old Man and the Gun

What Is It?: Robert Redford plays criminal and escape artist Forrest Tucker in his last film role before retirement
Why It Will Win: Did you read the description? It's Robert Redford's last ever film role before he retires. That alone is going to force the Academy to pay attention. Plus, it's directed by David Lowery, who is known for some really creative filmmaking, such as last year's A Ghost Story.
Why It Won't: Like a lot of these films, we just don't know a lot about it. And even if Redford is on the Academy's radar, that won't immediately translate to Best Picture glory.

22 July

No images from 22 July have been released yet, so here's Paul Greengrass with a microphone.

What Is It?: Director Paul Greengrass continues his trend of directing disaster movies like United 93 and Captain Phillips with this film about the aftermath of the 2011 Norway attacks, the deadliest attack in Norway since World War II.
Why It Will Win: United 93 is an absolutely brilliantly made film, and many agree that it would have been a Best Picture contender had it not been released so soon after the World Trade Center attacks. The Norway attacks were devastating, but will not hit as close to home for most Academy voters. If Greengrass can make as good of a film as both United 93 and Captain Phillips, then he might finally advance from Oscar nominee to Oscar winner.
Why It Won't: The Norway attacks are just not as well-known to most Oscar voters as the subjects of Greengrass' previous disaster films. And, unlike Captain Phillips, it doesn't have the starpower of someone like Tom Hanks behind it. If there's a film it can be compared to, it would probably be Dunkirk. If there's glowing praise after its premiere at the Venice Film Festival, it could definitely score a Best Picture nomination, and will probably do well in the technical categories, but without a big headliner in the acting categories, 22 July faces an uphill battle to winning Best Picture. And, much like Roma, being distributed by Netflix is only going to hurt it's chances.

Colette

What Is It?: Keira Knightley stars in this biographical film about the French novelist Colette.
Why It Will Win: The Academy likes period films, and this one seems like the rare period film that feels like it will resonate with modern audiences due to its feminist bent. The film received universal acclaim when it premiered at Sundance, and seems like the first genuine Oscar contender from fledgling indie film studio Bleecker Street.
Why It Won't: The film does feel destined for the Oscars, but maybe not in the Best Picture category. Just like director Wash Westmoreland's last film, Still Alice, this feels like it might get more attention for its star as opposed to Best Picture. The film is supposed to be good, but Knightley is supposed to be great. It's one to watch for Oscar season, but just doesn't have the buzz to get into the biggest race of the night at this point.

At Eternity's Gate

What Is It?: Julian Schnabel directs this biopic about Vincent Van Gogh, starring Willem Dafoe as the artist himself.
Why It Will Win: Schnabel might not be a household name, but he has serious cinephile cred, and received a Best Director nomination for the innovative The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. We know very little about this film, but Dafoe playing Van Gogh is a really intriguing idea, and the subject matter seems suitable to Schnabel's artistic sensibilities. And even if only a little information has been released about it, the release date and festival schedule for the film seems to suggest its distributors think it might be have Oscar chances.
Why It Won't: Schnabel is REALLY out there, and since no one has seen the film yet, it might be too wacky or too boring to genuinely be part of the conversation. I think there's a chance it'll be an Oscars film, but I think there's also a chance that this will be released and absolutely nobody will see it. Let's hope it's the former.

Black Panther

What Is It?: If you don't know what Black Panther is it means you've never heard of movies before and in that case, why are you reading this? This entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, helmed by Ryan Coogler, was an enormous success both critically and commercially.
Why It Will Win: Black Panther was a landmark achievement. This blockbuster, the first Marvel film to be directed by and to star a person of color, received a lot of buzz. It's not just another superhero film, it's one with a message. Recently, the Academy has been fighting accusations that it's out of touch with audiences, and recognizing a film like Black Panther would show that it is not blind to commercial success.
Why It Won't: It's a superhero movie. In previous years, whenever a superhero movie does well with critics, people start saying it might be the first superhero movie to get a Best Picture nomination, and it just never happens. It happened with The Dark Knight, The Avengers, Wonder Woman, and now it's going to happen with Black Panther. There's buzz now, but once genuine Oscar contenders are released, Black Panther is just not Oscar-y enough.

BlacKkKlansman

What Is It?: Spike Lee's latest tells the unbelievable true story of an African-American cop who infiltrated the KKK.
Why It Will Win: BlacKkKlansman has garnered Oscar buzz ever since it premiered at Cannes, and many have said its recent release signals the start of Oscar season. It's the only already released film with believable buzz. Spike Lee hasn't made it to the Oscars since his masterpiece Do the Right Thing, and many are saying this is his best film since. It's a timely movie, and such a great story, and is bound to have a strong Oscar campaign behind it.
Why It Won't: Most Oscar films tend to be released later in the year, so the fact that BlacKkKlansman is being released in August means it might not have the staying power that it needs to remain in the Oscars conversation. And then, to get real, there's racism. The Oscars have gotten better at recognizing more diverse films, but with two Oscar frontrunners (If Beale Street Could Talk and Widows) already being helmed by black directors, the unfortunate reality is that Oscar voters are probably significantly less likely to remember BlacKkKlansman. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.



Okay, so what does this all mean? Who knows. But, I figured I should try and make some early predictions. Some of these are going to be way, WAY off, and there are bound to be some films I've never even heard of or am completely not expecting which will make their way onto the ballot. I've also made predictions for Director and the four acting awards. These are even tougher: the director award is going to be skewed by whatever films rise to the top of the pack for Best Picture, so that's a real shot in the dark, but of my predictions, I do think that there's a good chance Orson Welles will get a Best Director nomination even if The Other Side of the Wind doesn't get a Best Picture nomination (if, of course, it's even eligible).  The acting awards are even tougher to gauge, and there are a few films with Oscar-buzz for performances even if the films themselves aren't generating the same attention (such as Glenn Close vehicle The Wife). So I offer these with no degree of certainty, but if you were forcing me to predict the Oscar nominees right now, this is what I'd come up with:

Best Picture:
Backseat
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Beautiful Boy
Boy Erased
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Favourite
First Man
On the Basis of Sex
Widows
Wildlife 

But don't count out: 22 July, BlacKkKlansman, Colette, The Front Runner, The Other Side of the World, Roma, A Star is Born, Suspiria, and Welcome to Marwen

Best Director: 
Damien Chazelle--First Man
Barry Jenkins--If Beale Street Could Talk
Yorgos Lanthimos--The Favourite
Steve McQueen--Widows
Orson Welles--The Other Side of the Wind

But don't count out: The Coen Brothers--The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Alfonso Cuaron--Roma, Paul Dano--Wildlife, Joel Edgerton--Boy Erased, Paul Greengrass--22 July, Luca Guadagnino--Suspiria, Spike Lee--BlacKkKlansman, Adam McKay--Backseat, Jason Reitman--The Front Runner, and Robert Zemeckis--Welcome to Marwen

Best Actress:
Glenn Close--The Wife
Viola Davis--Widows
Felicity Jones--On the Basis of Sex
Keira Knightley--Colette
Carey Mulligan--Wildlife

But don't count out: Emily Blunt--Mary Poppins, Toni Collette--Hereditary, Olivia Colman--The Favourite, Penelope Cruz--Everybody Knows, Lady Gaga--A Star is Born, Kiki Layne--If Beale Street Could Talk, Melissa McCarthy--Can You Ever Forgive Me?, and Charlize Theron--Tully


Best Actor:
Steve Carell--Welcome to Marwen OR Beautiful Boy
Willem Dafoe--At Eternity's Gate
Ryan Gosling--First Man
Lucas Hedges--Boy Erased
Robert Redford--The Old Man and the Gun

But don't count out: Christian Bale--Backseat, Ethan Hawke--First Reformed, Hugh Jackman--The Front Runner, Stephan James--If Beale Street Could Talk, Tim Blake Nelson--The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, and John David Washington--BlacKkKlansman  

Best Supporting Actress:
Cynthia Erivo--Widows
Nicole Kidman--Boy Erased
Regina King--If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone AND/OR Rachel Weisz--The Favourite
Tilda Swinton--Suspiria  

But don't count out: Amy Adams--Backseat, Vera Farmiga--The Front Runner, Margot Robbie--Mary, Queen of Scots, Amy Ryan--Beautiful Boy, and Sissy Spacek--The Old Man and the Gun

Best Supporting Actor:
Steve Carell AND/OR Sam Rockwell--Backseat
Timothy Chalamet--Beautiful Boy 
Joel Edgerton AND/OR Russell Crowe--Boy Erased
Jake Gyllenhaal--Wildlife
Daniel Kaluuya AND/OR Liam Neeson--Widows 

But don't count out: Kyle Chander--First Man, Adam Driver--BlacKkKlansman, Brendan Gleeson--The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Russell Hornsby--The Hate U Give, Matthew McConaughey--White Boy Rick


So, those are my thoughts. Which movies are you most excited for? Which ones do you think have good Oscar chances? Are there any movies you think I missed? There are bound to be some genuine Oscar contenders that haven't even occurred to me. Let me know in the comments!

90th Academy Awards: Final Thoughts

Lupita Nyong'o and Kumail Nanjiani presenting at the 90th Academy Awards

Well, another Oscars has come and gone. After all the assessment and predictions, it's done. And while the top awards all went in expected ways, there were quite a few surprises in some of the other categories. Below are my thoughts on the awards, the ceremony, and what were some of the biggest moments and surprises.

Biggest Upset of the Night:

Grigory Rodchenkov and Bryan Fogel in Icarus

The biggest upset of the night comes in the category of Best Documentary. In my predictions, I had not only said Faces Places would win, I had said that was one of the surest bets of the night. It is one of the most acclaimed films of the year, appearing on numerous top ten lists and winning Best Documentary at basically every awards ceremony that offers such a prize up until this point. But, instead, the prize went to Icarus, a tense and terrifying documentary about the Russian Olympic doping scandal which hasn't won anything up until now and which hadn't really been in the discussion to even get a nomination. So, how did this happen? Well, five years ago there had been a big rule change. Before, only those Academy members who had seen all five documentaries in theaters would be allowed to vote. But starting in 2013, the voting was opened up to all Academy members for the first time. The artistry that went into the making of Faces Places might be lost on some Academy voters, who instead would have been quite taken with the important subject matter of Icarus. In some ways, the fact that Faces Places is so original probably worked against it. No matter what, these are both great films, and so different it's impossible to really compare them. And I'm glad that the underrated Icarus got a chance to be in the spotlight. Also, it's worth noting that Icarus is the first Netflix feature film to win an Oscar, which could be a turning point in the Academy recognizing the relevance of the streaming service in the industry.

More Upsets:

Artist Mindy Alper in Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

There were also some upsets in the shorts categories. I was excited that Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 won Best Documentary Short Subject. This profile of artist Mindy Alper is wonderful, but I thought it would have a tough time competing against some of the heavier entries in the category. But it's a really great film which had the most creative storytelling in the category. I was more disappointed with the upset in the Animated Short category. The winner, Dear Basketball, was the most underwhelming of the nominees for me by far. It's not a bad film, but it's also not much of a film, and outside of the name recognition of Kobe Bryant, I'm pretty confused about what Oscar voters responded to with the film.

Also, I definitely thought Dunkirk had a chance to win Best Sound Mixing, but I'm still sad it did because the sound mixing is objectively bad. Christopher Nolan insists on using bad sound mixing in his films and I just don't understand it, and to give one of his films this award is only going to encourage him.

Progress was Front and Center:

Jordan Peele accepting his history-making Oscar for Best Original Screenplay

The Oscars has been criticized in the past for its lack of diversity, and there were some notable steps taken this year towards inclusion. The winner for Best Live Action short, The Silent Child stars a deaf child actress and is about the difficulties deaf children face due to the ignorance of their parents and educators. It was my least favorite of the nominees, because to me it felt like a PSA rather than a film, but it's impossible to disagree with the message, and it was great to see writer and star Rachel Shenton signing her acceptance speech and bringing these issues to the Oscars stage.

Probably the biggest step the Academy took this year was with trans inclusion. The Academy has been infamous for nominating cisgender actors who have played transgender characters, an outdated and controversial practice. This year, the documentary Strong Island became the first ever Oscar-nominated film to be directed by a trans filmmaker, and said filmmaker Yance Ford was part of an excellent montage about diversity. Even more excitingly, the film A Fantastic Woman won Best Foreign Language Film. The Chilean film (Chile's first ever win in this category) is the first Oscar-nominated film to have a transgender performer in a leading role, and now has also become the first Oscar-winning film to have a transgender performer in a leading role. Not only that, but said actress, the phenomenal Daniela Vega, was included in the ceremony as a presenter, which I imagine is a first for the Oscars.

It was wonderful to see visionary director Guillermo del Toro win his first Oscar--an award that he's inexplicably never even been nominated for before. And it's worth noting that, with his win, a Mexican director has taken home Best Director for four out of the past five years. That's pretty cool. Fuck you, Trump.

Not to mention, Jordan Peele made history last night becoming the first black person to win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay.

But...It Could Have Been More Progressive:

Frances McDormand gave a fantastic speech as she accepted her Oscar for Best Leading Actress

The Oscars talked a lot this year about being more inclusive towards women in particular. With the #MeToo and #TimesUp movement, the poor treatment of women in the industry has been placed under a magnifying glass and it was part of much of the discussion at this year's Oscars. But the actual Oscar winners were strikingly male. Aside from, of course, the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress categories, there was not a single award won by an individual woman this year. The only women who won outside of the acting categories were part of a team with a man. Lady Bird has rightfully been seen as a triumph for putting women's stories first, but it didn't take home any awards last night. Frances McDormand's speech was an undeniable highlight of the night, where she asked all the female nominees to stand, and told producers to contact them and finance their projects to tell their stories. Hopefully this will happen, and we can see more women up at the winner's podium next year.

The Way We Look at Predictions Has Changed:

Sally Hawkins and Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water

The Shape of Water was seen as the frontrunner to win the award, but its win has bucked a few trends. For the past three years, the Spirit Awards for Independent Film have been on a roll and gone hand in hand with the Oscar Best Picture winner, and many thought that Get Out's win this year might indicate an Oscars upset. Even more surprising is that The Shape of Water is only the second film ever (and the first in over two decades) to win Best Picture without a nomination for Best Ensemble Cast at the SAG Awards. Usually not scoring a nomination in that category means the Oscars are a tough sell because the Screen Actor's Guild makes up such a large chunk of the Academy. But, in this case, The Shape of Water still clearly had some SAG love. It was nominated for three other SAG Awards (for Sally Hawkins, Richard Jenkins, and Octavia Spencer) and was probably just left out of the ensemble race because it was a competitive year.

There's also the category of Best Film Editing. In the past, this has often been a category that matches Best Picture, but that seems to no longer be the case. In fact, this category has not gone to the Best Picture winner for the past five years. It signals that being a Best Picture frontrunner is no longer enough to win this category, and shows that the artistry of film editing is finally being recognized in its own right.

Good For You, Roger Deakins:

Roger Deakins accepts a long overdue Oscar

 Roger Deakins won his first Oscar after fourteen nominations. Which is really exciting, because he's widely seen as the best cinematographer in the business and it's great that he finally has Oscar-winner in front of his name. It might have been for a film that has the least Deakins-esque cinematography in his career, but hey, it's a win nonetheless! Most excitingly, this means that insufferable film snobs like me will finally stop talking about how Roger Deakins has never gotten an Oscar.

The Ceremony Itself:

I think the theme they were going for with the set design was "Subtlety"

Jimmy Kimmel did a solid job. His monologue had some good jokes, and he struck a good balance between humor and acknowledging the clearly changing times in the industry. He was casual, and maintained a presence without being overbearing. I also thought he did a great job addressing last year's Oscar snafu which, while not his fault, still happened under his watch. Of his two big stunts, I thought the idea of awarding a jet ski to the person who gives the shortest acceptance speech was a great and really funny idea, especially with Helen Mirren as a game presenter of said award. The other big stunt was when Kimmel gathered a bunch of celebrities to go to a movie theater across the street to surprise some movie-goers. It seemed genuinely impromptu and the delight of seeing Guillermo del Toro and Lin-Manuel Miranda carrying a giant sandwich, or Armie Hammer shooting a hot dog gun was really fun. It didn't quite have the same impact as, say, Ellen DeGeneres ordering pizza, and it dragged on for a bit too long, but it was still enjoyable. I also loved the joke that instead of being played off, overly-long acceptance speeches would be cut off by LaKeith Stanfield running up to you and screaming "Get Out!" That got the biggest laugh from me of the whole not by a mile. But Kimmel's best moment for me was at the very end, when he allowed one of The Shape of Water's producers to speak after his mic had been cut off. Good for you, Kimmel. Still, while Kimmel was good, his hosting wasn't exactly groundbreaking or sensational. With so many great potential hosts out there, I really hope he's not brought back for a third year in a row. It has been 17 years since we had a woman of color host the Oscars. And I imagine, say, Tiffany Haddish would be up to the job.

Tiffany Haddish and Maya Rudolph, who were undoubtedly the funniest presenters of the night.

But the thing that I liked most about this ceremony was the emphasis on the love of movies. There were a lot of great montages (I really liked the ones for all the previous winners in the acting categories) but my favorite was this one, which simply celebrated movies. The Academy Awards are heavily flawed. The Oscars have so many blindspots, and there are so many ways in which they're not inclusive. And one could argue that the idea of giving awards to something so subjective as artistic tastes is a futile thing to do. But, and I've said this before, the reason I love the Oscars so much and think they're important is that it's amazing that there's this one night that is devoted entirely to celebrating achievement in film. It's not about who wins. If you disagree with the awards, talk about it! Tell everyone why Get Out should have won, or Lady Bird. Tell people about the amazing film you saw that didn't even get nominated, and talk about why it should have been recognized. But the Oscars are a really important event for continuing a discussion about the art of film. There were many amazing films this year, and not all of them were talked about at the Oscars this year, but if you want to watch some good movies, the nominees and winners are a good place to start.

Predictions for the 90th Academy Awards

The Oscars will be in a week and a half and, after an often unpredictable awards season, frontrunners have finally emerged. As always, the Oscars are difficult to predict, but  it's not impossible to do. And luckily for you readers, there are plenty of people like me with an inexplicable fascination with awards ceremonies who can look pore through the results of the awards circuit, analyze the data, and come up with the frontrunners, contenders, and dark horses. Here now are my predictions for every single Oscars category to help you come out on top in your Oscars ballot.

Best Picture

The Shape of Water, Get Out, and Mudbound

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri or Lady Bird or Get Out
Should Win: Get Out
Should Have Been Nominated: Mudbound

The awards season has been a long one, and at various times, different films have seemed to be the expected winner. But the best way to predict that Oscars is to look at the awards given out by various guilds, as the voting blocks tend to have the most overlap with the Academy. For these reasons, the definite frontrunners appear to be The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. I'm giving the edge to The Shape of Water for one reason: it won the Producer's Guild Award. That's the award that has most consistently predicted Best Picture throughout history, and combined with the warm reception The Shape of Water received in all the other nominations, it has the strongest case for it on paper for sure.


The major red flag here, though, is that The Shape of Water didn't receive a nomination for Best Cast at the SAG Awards. This is a biggie. No movie has won Best Picture without a SAG ensemble nomination in over two decades (the last one was Braveheart). That's a lot to ignore. So the next most decorated film going into the Oscars is Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. This film has done very well in predictor awards, but also has a few clear weaknesses. The fact that Martin McDonagh didn't receive a Best Director nomination shows the film might not have enough support from the Academy to give it the win. Plus, the film has received considerable backlash after its early wave of acclaim which might be its undoing.

So, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards might be the best bets on paper, but neither has what feels like a surefire path to Best Picture. Which might imply that this year there will be an upset. And if there is one, I think it'll be Get Out or Lady Bird. Not only are they my two personal favorite films of the year, but they have much more of a feeling of excitement surrounding them. Both feel indicative of the direction that film should be going in, and might just have the support to get people to rally behind them. It might sound strange to say this about a movie where a woman fucks a fish, but The Shape of Water feels like the safe choice. Get Out or Lady Bird would be more exciting entrants into the list of Best Picture winners. Still, the safer choice is usually the better choice when it comes to predictions.

As for who should have been nominated, if you look at my favorite films of the year, you know that I ranked a few films higher than Mudbound, but they were little-seen gems like The Wound and Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer. The reason I picked Mudbound as the film that should have been nominated is because it's inexplicable to me that it wasn't. It's a great movie, but it also should have been perfect Oscar fare. It as excellent production values, tackles difficult themes, and features an outstanding, star-studded cast. The film was famously not promoted much by its distributor, Netflix. Which is a shame. Outside of its excellent documentaries, Netflix hasn't had an Oscar contender yet, and Mudbound should have been its chance to enter the race, but they blew it. It's a shame, because this is a truly remarkable and Oscar-worthy film.

Best Director

Guillermo del Toro, Jordan Peele, and Dee Rees in action

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Could Win: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Should Win: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Should Have Been Nominated: Dee Rees, Mudbound

This category features three acclaimed directors seeking their first Oscar, and two newbies who have earned raves for their debut films. Of the more established directors, a frontrunner has emerged with Guillermo del Toro. Especially off of his win at the Director's Guild Awards, it feels like the consensus is that it's del Toro's time. It's tough to imagine anyone unseating him.

But if there is an upset, it's going to be one of the newbies. It is incredibly rare for a director to win the Oscar for their first film. But the rare times it's happened, it is usually because the director has already been established in another part of the industry (such as Robert Redford for Ordinary People), which is true of both Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele, and just like with the films they directed, I could see either of them scoring an upset if their fanbase within the Academy is larger than expected. Both do an amazing job with their films, and personally I think Peele is the best director of the bunch. But if someone's going to pull an upset over del Toro, it'll be Gerwig, who might just get a swell of support in the midst of the #MeToo movement.

But my favorite direction of the year belonged to the un-nominated Dee Rees for Mudbound. Rees does an outstanding job, creating the movie that is just so elegantly put together. And it's worth noting that Rees would have been the first woman of color ever nominated in this category, and had she joined Gerwig amongst the nominees, it would have been the first year that two women were nominated for Best Director in the same year.

Best Actress

Frances McDormand, Saoirse Ronan, and Daniela Vega

Will Win: Frances McDormand as Mildred Hayes, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Sally Hawkins as Elisa Esposito, The Shape of Water
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan as Christine "Lady Bird" McPherson, Lady Bird
Should Have Been Nominated: Daniela Vega as Marina Vidal, A Fantastic Woman

All five of the nominated performances here had received buzz far before their films had even be released, and before the awards season started, a case could have been made for any of them as winners. But as time has gone on, two contenders emerged, as Frances McDormand and Sally Hawkins seemed to split all the various critic's choice awards. Of the two, McDormand is the clear frontrunner. Fresh off of winning the SAG Award, McDormand has momentum on her side, and any backlash the film has received has spared her universally acclaimed performance.

Both McDormand and Hawkins do a great job, but for me the best performance here is Saoirse Ronan. Greta Gerwig has deservedly received a landslide of praise for her work directing and writing Lady Bird, but I don't think Ronan has gotten enough credit for how much of an impact her performance has on the film. She's so great in this movie, and crafts what I think is one of the best teenage characters I've ever seen portrayed on film. Not to mention the fact that Lady Bird is very different from the roles Ronan has played in the past. I'd love to see her pull a major upset on Oscar night.

All five of the nominees here give performances that have been acclaimed across the board, and it's easy to see why these are Oscar-nominated performances. The only one I wasn't taken with was Margot Robbie, who I wasn't all that impressed with in I, Tonya, but I know I'm in the minority there. Still, I think that this year especially there were amazing performances from women leading foreign language films. Daniela Vega gives an absolute tour de force performance in the Chilean film A Fantastic Woman, showcasing simultaneous vulnerability and strength. I was also really impressed by Diane Kruger's powerhouse performance in the German film In the Fade, which won her Best Actress at Cannes. Both performances are absolutely incredible, and had they been in English, it's tough to imagine these actresses not being a part of the Oscar conversation. Unfortunately, the Oscars has always had a problem recognizing international films outside of the Foreign Language category. It would have been nice to see them buck that trend this year.

Best Actor

Gary Oldman, Daniel Kaluuya, and Richard Gere

Will Win: Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill, Darkest Hour
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet as Elio Perlman, Call Me by Your Name
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya as Chris Washington, Get Out
Should Have Been Nominated: Richard Gere as Norman Oppenheimer, Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer

As soon as it was announced that Gary Oldman was playing Winston Churchill, people cited him as an Oscar contender. And as he picked up award after award, his win here began to feel inevitable. Which...is fine, I guess. It's not that Oldman does a bad job in Darkest Hour, but he also doesn't really do a great job. Churchill has been portrayed so many times, and Oldman's performance adds nothing new. He's going to get an Oscar for wearing prosthetic jowls. Really his frontrunner status here just feels boring and predetermined. Early on in the race, the frontrunner seemed to be Timothée Chalamet, who gave what many felt was a breakthrough performance in Call Me by Your Name, but time and time again he has been losing to Oldman, so Oldman it shall be. But, to be fair, this year, this is by far the least exciting of the four acting categories. I just think the nominees are relatively weak this year. Denzel Washington is a great actor, but his performance in Roman J. Israel, Esq. might be remembered as one of the worst performances ever nominated for an Oscar, provided anyone remembers the movie at all. The exception in this category is Daniel Kaluuya's wonderful work in Get Out, which is absolutely Oscar-worthy and the saving grace of the category for me.

This picture is honestly STARTLINGLY indicative of Washington's performance as a whole

If I could add any nominee to the mix, it would undoubtedly be Richard Gere in the criminally underseen Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer. He disappears into the role (no prosthetic jowls needed), and delivers not only career-best work, but my favorite film performance of the year.

Best Supporting Actress

Allison Janney, Laurie Metcalf, and Melissa Leo

Will Win: Allison Janney as LaVona Golden, I, Tonya
Could Win: Laurie Metcalf as Marion McPherson, Lady Bird
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf as Marion McPherson, Lady Bird
Should Have Been Nominated: Melissa Leo as Reverend Mother Marie St. Clair, Novitiate

Once again, there are two clear frontrunners in this category: Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf have run away with this category. Either could take it, but after her win at the SAG Awards, Janney has emerged as the true frontrunner, and has dominated the latter awards ceremonies for sure. I love Allison Janney, and she's such a likable public figure, that I can't say I'm rooting against her, but if I had my druthers, this award would belong to Metcalf. Both of these roles are mothers with contentious relationships with their daughters, but while Janney's is villainous and deliciously over-the-top, Metcalf's is a lot more sympathetic and nuanced. Janney gives a scene-stealing performance in I, Tonya, but Metcalf's performance (in conjunction with Ronan's) is truly the heart of the movie. It shows a lot more subtlety. It's a more complicated performance, and one which leaves far more of a lasting effect.

But even better than Metcalf's performance was Melissa Leo's in the widely unrecognized Novitiate. Playing a strict, abusive nun with a superiority complex (or a Mother Superiority complex har har har), Leo is truly dangerous on screen. Her Reverend Mother Marie St. Clair is vicious and powerful, and the best film villain of the year. Her performance brought to mind roles such as Terence Fletcher in Whiplash, which won J.K. Simmons every award in the book. And Leo's performance is strong enough that she should have followed suit.

Best Supporting Actor

Sam Rockwell, Willem Dafoe, and Rob Morgan

Will Win: Sam Rockwell as Jason Dixon, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Willem Dafoe as Bobby Hicks, The Florida Project
Should Win: Willem Dafoe as Bobby Hicks, The Florida Project
Should Have Been Nominated: Rob Morgan as Hap Jackson, Mudbound

Once again, we have an acting category with two distinct frontrunners. Early on in the awards season, this looked like Willem Dafoe's award to lose for his portrayal of a sympathetic manager at a cheap motel. But recently, every award has been going to Sam Rockwell's portrayal of a racist cop in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Like with Allison Janney, the momentum is distinctly with Rockwell, and him not winning this award would be a major snub. It helps that Rockwell is overdue: he's one of those actors who has been doing consistently great work for a few years but hasn't gotten any recognition from the Academy until now. And his performance in Three Billboards really is incredibly strong. He sells an unbelievably difficult role in a way that makes the character pathetic without feeling thinly-drawn or caricaturized. So at the moment, it's hard to imagine him not coming away with the win.

That being said, I think Dafoe gives the better performance. In a cast of non-actors (who also do a great job across the board) Dafoe really does stand out, giving an unexpected performance for him, which is absolutely crucial to the film's overall success. The film risks feeling unbearably bleak, but the genuine goodness of Dafoe's Bobby, a man trying his hardest to do good under impossible circumstances really makes the film thrive. I think he should win, and he does have a chance. Most of the backlash surrounding Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri revolves around Rockwell's character, which might just be enough to take this win away from him, and if he does, Dafoe is next in line.

In case you didn't get the idea by now, I really think Mudbound should have gotten more recognition. Even the film's critics agree that the acting is strong across the board, and the performer who has consistently been singled out for accolades is Mary J. Blige (now the only actor to be nominated for acting and for Original Song in the same year, which is pretty neat). Blige is great, but for me the standout performer in Mudbound is Rob Morgan. I simply don't understand how nobody is talking about his magnificent performance. Hopefully, this will launch him to more high-profile roles, where his talent can be recognized in the future.

As a sidenote that has nothing to do with predictions, I do love that Christopher Plummer was nominated for this award. Not only is he now the oldest person to ever be nominated for an acting Oscar, but his nomination here is just a giant middle finger to Kevin Spacey, and that's great.

Best Original Screenplay

Get Out's screenplay features great lines like "No no no no no no no no no!"

Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: Lady Bird or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Get Out
Should Have Been Nominated: Colossal

This might just be the most universally strong category at this year's Oscars. There were so many excellent original screenplays this year, and a case could be made for any of these five to win. So figuring out the winner we need to rely on process of elimination. The Big Sick has a great screenplay, but it's the only film here not nominated for Best Picture (or any other award for that matter) which shows it doesn't have the Academy's support the same way the other films do. The screenplay for The Shape of Water is great, but when one think of what the film's strengths are, the screenplay isn't necessarily one of the first things that comes to mind the way it is for the other nominees in this category. So that leaves three contenders: Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards, and I honestly think that any of these screenplays could have won this category in a different year without such stiff competition. The fact that Get Out took home this prize at the Writer's Guild Awards is why I'm choosing it to win (well, and the fact that I think it does slightly edge out the competition) but this one is sure to be a close category.


The nominees are not the only strong original screenplays from this year, there were numerous brilliant original screenplays that I think live up the quality of the already strong nominees. If I had to pick only one film to join them, it would be Colossal, Nacho Vigalondo's criminally underrated film from this year. It was one of the most creative stories of the year, and was beautifully told. One of the most surprising screenplays and overall films of the year which certainly deserved more attention than it received.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Armie Hammer reading a really great screenplay, probably

Will Win: Call Me by Your Name
Could Win: Nothing else, really
Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Nominated: Last Flag Flying

As strong as the original screenplay category is, the adapted screenplay category is pretty weak. It just happened to be that the best screenplays of the year all seemed to be original ideas, and frankly, there were numerous great original screenplays that outrank any of the five nominees in this category. The result is that, this category has a clear winner: Call Me by Your Name. The only one of these nominees that's also nominated for Best Picture, it's clearly the Academy favorite. In fact, only two of the five nominated films in this category have nominations in any other categories, the other being Mudbound. And, yes, I do feel bad for not wanting Mudbound to win in one of the only categories where it's actually nominated. But the Call Me by Your Name screenplay really is great, and it's untouchable in this category for sure.

With rather weak screenplays in this category like The Disaster Artist and Molly's Game, a lot of screenplays probably should have ended up here instead. The best of the lot for me would be the wonderful screenplay for Last Flag Flying. This touching Richard Linklater film was largely forgotten, but its screenplay was great. The way these characters are written, they feel so fresh and personal and well-rounded that I was honestly shocked to learn they were not original creations, and were in fact plucked from a novel.


Best Animated Feature Film

Coco

Will Win: Coco
Could Win: Only Coco
Should Win: Motherfucking Coco
Should Have Been Nominated: A bunch of stuff I haven't seen

Pixar has dominated this category, and when it's on top of its game, it's practically impossible to beat. And Coco is one of its best films in a few years. It's a beautiful film, that WILL make you cry, and not only will it handily win, it 100% deserves to in every way. It's a great movie, and frankly, none of its nominees are anywhere near as strong. Movies like The Boss Baby and Ferdinand are okay at best, and their nominations in this category despite mixed to negative reviews are pretty puzzling.

Given how weak the mainstream animated films were this year, I would have loved to have seen some films from smaller studios get some attention. In previous years, there seem to be a few spots given to little-seen indie animated films, and they're often quite good. This year, there were a lot of films in contention for this award which I'd not heard of, but which I can't imagine were worse than mediocre poop like The Boss Baby.

The Girl Without Hands, Ethel & Ernest, In This Corner of the World, and My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea, four animated features from this year which failed to score a nomination.

I have no idea if any of these films are actually good, and maybe they're awful, but I do hope that in future years, smaller studios start to make more headway in this category so that it's not so dominated by Disney, Pixar, and Dreamworks. And hopefully next year will be a better year for animation all around.

Best Foreign Language Film

A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, and The Wound

Will Win: A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
Could Win: The Square (Sweden)
Should Win: The Insult (Lebanon)
Should Have Been Nominated: The Wound (South Africa)

On paper, the frontrunner here should be The Square, which won the Palme d'Or at Cannes and has been gathering awards ever since. Everything points to it being victorious on Oscar night, and most would probably name it as the odds-on favorite. But I'm not convinced. The Square is good, but it's uneven and I think it could prove divisive. The other nominees in this category might not have the same early buzz that The Square did, but my instinct tells me that there will be an upset here. And that upset comes in the form of A Fantastic Woman from Chile. I've already talked here about how incredible leading actress Daniela Vega is, and the film as a whole is pretty amazing. It just feels like more of a winner than The Square. And it does have a considerable fanbase and studio backing behind it. Plus, it's the first Oscar-nominated film to feature a trans actor in a leading role, and so a win for this film would be especially historic.

I love A Fantastic Woman, and I'll be pretty ecstatic if it wins. But for me, Lebanon's film The Insult slightly edges it out (although they're two incredibly different movies, so it's hard to compare them). I hadn't heard anything about The Insult until it earned a nomination, and was pretty blown away by it when I saw it. Both of these films are essential viewing as far as I'm concerned and I hope people can seek them out. Also essential viewing: the South African film The Wound, which wasn't nominated but did make the nomination shortlist, and which was my favorite foreign language film of the year.

Best Documentary Feature

Faces Places, Icarus, and Unrest

Will Win: Faces Places
Could Win: Nothing else, Faces Places has this in the bag
Should Win: Faces Places, but Icarus is also really great

Should Have Been Nominated: Unrest

This is one of the few categories this year that is a no-brainer. Faces Places is going to win. It is by far the most decorated of the nominees, and has won pretty much every Best Documentary award so far, and appearing on multiple top ten lists this year. There's also the fact that the filmmaker and star of the doc, Agnes Varda, is a beloved figure. At 89, she's the oldest Oscar nominee in history, and is already receiving a lifetime achievement award at this year's ceremony. Most importantly, It's a delightful film, and in a tumultuous Oscar year, a win for Faces Places is probably the single best bet you can make (well, maybe Coco for animated feature, but this is basically guaranteed too). The film follows two artists--Varda and a sunglasses-clad photographer named JR--as they tour through France meeting people and creating large-scale art in all the places they go. It's truly unlike any other film I've seen, and certainly unlike any other documentary. It's just a joy to watch, and the relationship between Varda and JR is quite dear.

Faces Places is completely deserving of this award, and based off of its originality alone, it's my favorite of the nominees. But I do want to spread the love a little since Faces Places has dominated the awards circuit thus far. It's really a shame that these other excellent films are up against such a powerhouse. Of the other nominees, there were two standouts for me. One was Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, about a small, family-run bank in NYC's Chinatown which became the only bank to face criminal charges in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis. Even more outstanding is Icarus, which might possibly be the most exciting film I've seen all year. A close look at the Russian Olympics doping scandal, it felt like more of a political thriller than a documentary, and I hope that its nomination means more people will watch this underrated but absolutely gripping film. And while Faces Places imparts timeless wisdom, Icarus is an extremely relevant film to right now, and should honestly be essential viewing while we're in the midst of the winter Olympics.

One documentary that I wish has been able to earn a nomination is Unrest, filmmaker Jen Brea's film about living with chronic fatigue syndrome. Of the documentaries on the shortlist, this was the only one which didn't have a studio backing behind it, and therefore was a bit of an underdog as the film could only rely on self-promotion. But it's an eye-opening film, and I hope more people seek it out.


Best Cinematography

Blade Runner 2049, Mudbound, and The Killing of a Sacred Deer

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Mudbound
Should Have Been Nominated: The Killing of a Sacred Deer

If you don't know who Roger Deakins is, you should. Deakins is considered by many to be the greatest living cinematographer. He changed what a lot of people thought was possible with cinematography and have received numerous awards throughout his prolific and distinguished career. But...he has never won an Oscar. He's gotten plenty of nominations (this year, he gained his 14th nomination) but never won. This year, that might just change, and it seems like Deakins might finally receive his long-overdue recognition from the Academy.

And I really, really wish I could be happy for him. I love this man and his work, but I wasn't blown away by the cinematography in Blade Runner 2049 (or the film as a whole for that matter). Deakins knows what he's doing, and the cinematography is good, but it's not his best work, and I actually felt like the cinematography was a bit lifeless, even though Deakins is known for really bringing a film to life with his camerawork. I found the cinematography in Mudbound to be not only stronger, but more reminiscent of the work Deakins usually does. I can't believe I'm rooting against Deakins, but I would love for the win to go to Mudbound's cinematographer Rachel Morrison, who is inexplicably also the first woman ever nominated in this category. Nonetheless, this feels like Deakins' year, but you never know, and if the Academy once again passes him by, I think they'll turn to Hoyte van Hoytema's noteworthy cinematography for Dunkirk.

If I had to pick one film to get a nomination here, it would be The Killing of a Sacred Deer, which features the most creative cinematography I saw all year. This film was shot in such a disorienting yet stunning way, and I wish cinematographer Thimios Bakatakis could have been recognized here.

Best Film Editing

By God! What marvelous film editing!

Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: The Shape of Water or Baby Driver
Should Win: Dunkirk
Should Have Been Nominated: Get Out

Films tend to be included here for two reasons: technical merit, or the general overall quality of a film. It is widely accepted that editing is one of the most important contributions to a film's success, and Best Picture has overlapped with Best Film Editing more than with any other category (including Best Director). For this reason, you shouldn't count out any Best Picture frontrunner, which bodes well here for The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Of the two, I think The Shape of Water has a slightly better shot, as it's the movie that puts its technical achievements more at the forefront (and features some truly beautiful edits). On the other hand we have films like Dunkirk and Baby Driver, which are here because of the difficulty of their editing. Baby Driver is a film that flaunts how meticulously edited it is, and Dunkirk is the only one of the nominees with war scenes, which tend to be a consistent winner in this category. I'm a bit unsure here, and could especially see The Shape of Water grabbing this one (and if it does, that's a really strong indication that it will win Best Picture later in the ceremony) but, I give the odds to Dunkirk. It has both the clear Academy appeal and the high difficulty level to bring it to the winner's circle.

The fifth nominee, and the only one I really can't see winning here, is I, Tonya. It's presumably here because of how difficult it is to edit convincing figure skating sequences on film. The thing is...it's really difficult to edit convincing figure skating sequences on film and I thought those scenes came across as pretty clunky. It's bad editing and I'm not sure what it's doing in this category. I would have much rather seen Get Out here. It's my favorite film of the year, so yeah, I would love to see its editing acknowledged too, and also editing is going to be crucial to ANY horror film. This movie derives its thrills partly from a brilliant and terrifying screenplay, but also because of how well-edited the film is.

Best Visual Effects

Blade Runner 2049, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, and It

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Nominated: It

The visual effects category is consistently strong each year, and this year is no exception. I do think that the two mo-cap ape movies will cancel each other out. And while they reliably get nominations in this category, no superhero film has won this category since Spider-Man 2 back in 2004, and I doubt Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 will buck that trend. So this leaves Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Blade Runner 2049. The Last Jedi is really visually stunning and I think it has to be in contention here, but I do think Blade Runner 2049 has an edge. The effects are good overall, but it has a few moments of really extraordinary effects which I think are more innovative than anything else nominated this year. That hologram sex scene alone could be enough to win it this award.

If I could add one movie to the nominees, it would probably be It. The all-around well-liked Stephen King adaptation seems to have been forgotten by the Academy, but it was really well-done. I found the effects genuinely terrifying and creative, and this is one of a few technical awards that I feel like It perhaps should have been recognized in.


Best Costume Design

Phantom Thread, Beauty and the Beast, and Thor: Ragnarok

Will Win: Phantom Thread
Could Win: Beauty and the Beast
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Should Have Been Nominated: Thor: Ragnarok

Phantom Thread is a movie about a couture dressmaker. It better fucking win Best Costume Design. These dresses are beautiful and interesting to watch on screen. And, it should be noted, the other costumes in this film are really well designed as well. It's tough to imagine Phantom Thread not walking away with this competition handily. If there's any competition, it will come from prolific costume designer Jacqueline Durran, who's nominated twice this year for her costume work for both Beauty and the Beast and Darkest Hour. Of the two films, Beauty and the Beast is the flashier of the two, but it would still be quite the upset if it overtook Phantom Thread.

This award is notorious for almost always going to a period film, and sure enough, all five of the nominees in this category are period films. And while period films do tend to have beautiful costumes, it's unfortunate when this is the only type of costume design to get any recognition. Contemporary films like Get Out and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri have really thoughtful and smart costume design that might not be as visually stunning as the clothes in period films, but are just as crucial to telling the story. This is why the Costume Designers Guild Awards have three film categories: Period Film, Contemporary Film, and Fantasy Film. Speaking of Fantasy Film, my personal favorite costume design of the year goes to Thor: Ragnarok, because Cate Blanchett's horns alone deserve every award in the book.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Gary Oldman receiving his jowls for Darkest Hour

Will Win: Darkest Hour
Could Win: Victoria & Abdul or Wonder
Should Win: Darkest Hour
Should Have Been Nominated: The Shape of Water

This category is known for going way off into left field, and even with only three nominees, it it often one of the hardest categories to predict. Remember last year when it went to Suicide Squad? But I'm putting my money on Darkest Hour for a few reasons. So much of the acclaim for the film has revolved around Gary Oldman's transformation into Winston Churchill in a way that the other films can't reflect. I already said that Oldman's going to win an Oscar for wearing prosthetic jowls, so it just makes sense that those jowls also receive recognition. It also helps that the acclaimed makeup artist Kazuhiro Tsuji famously came out of retirement to work on the film (reportedly at Oldman's request). The makeups in all three films are solid, but the story of the makeup for Darkest Hour gives it a clear edge.

There are a few films that I can think of which I think could have joined the nominees, but the most glaring is obviously, The Shape of Water, which somehow failed to even make the nomination shortlist. How is that even possible? My theory is that the nominating committee didn't realize that The Asset, played by Doug Jones, was even wearing makeup. Because if they did, this Oscar would be going to the outstanding creature design in this film. Unless the nominating committee knows something we don't know. Namely, that there is no makeup in this film. That's what Doug Jones actually looks like, and he wears prosthetic makeup in his daily life pretending to be a human named Doug Jones.

So lifelike.

Best Production Design

The Shape of Water

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049 or Dunkirk
Should Win: The Shape of Water
Should Have Been Nominated: Mudbound

The look of a film is so important, and this year, the five nominees all look drastically different, so much of this will come down to taste. My personal favorite production design of the bunch is in The Shape of Water, and I think that it will be rewarded on Oscar day, as this category does tend to reward more distinctive and unusual entries. Guillermo del Toro's films are always known for being visually striking, so it just makes sense that his film to receive the most Oscar recognition would win this award.

All the nominees are pretty films, but one of the prettiest of the year was left out. Which one you ask? It's Mudbound, of course! This film is so gorgeous, and the production design is so crucial to the narrative, that it certainly deserved a nomination here.

Best Sound Editing

These bombs sound so real! Shield your ears!

Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver or Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Should Have Been Nominated: A Ghost Story

Sound editing is often a difficult category for people to predict, mostly because it's hard for a lot of people to gauge what good sound editing is. And yet, it is one of the most crucial things that helps a movie succeed. One of the best ways to notice good sound editing is to watch a war film. All those fight sequences, with bullets flying everywhere and bombs going off would be so unbelievably confusing if the sound were not well edited to help tell the story. That's probably why this category often goes to war films. Which, in this case, would imply that the winner would be Dunkirk. Although, I could also see it going to Star Wars: The Last Jedi. I know the film divided audiences, but regardless what your thoughts are on the story, that movie was really well-made on a technical level, and the sound in particular was really great. And the wild card here is Baby Driver, which is the rare movie that really puts sound at the forefront. So much has been made of how this film fitted its action sequences to its score, and since sound was so part of its process, I could see the Academy giving it some recognition here. Personally, though, I really didn't see what all the hubbub was about surrounding Baby Driver, and I honestly found it's use of sound to be adequate rather than exceptional. But you know what movie used sound really well? A Ghost Story. While all five of the nominees in this category have a lot of loud, fast-paced sound effects, much of A Ghost Story is minimal and silent. And that's why its use of sound is so effective. Every sound is so carefully chosen because every sound stands out so strongly.


Best Sound Mixing

"Yeah. This sound mixing is dope."

Will Win: Baby Driver
Could Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi or Dunkirk
Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Should Have Been Nominated: Wonderstruck

A lot of people tend to make jokes about how this category and sound editing are the same thing and that is just not true. Sound editing and sound mixing are two very different, and very important, art-forms. But the Academy didn't really help people see the distinction this year by nominating the same five films in both categories. Come on, Academy, you're better than this!

But I'm hoping that this similarity will end when it comes to the winners. While I think that Dunkirk will win the sound editing award, I really hope it doesn't win sound mixing. Nolan insists on having really bad sound mixing in his movies, and the Academy insists on inexplicably giving his films sound mixing nominations. At least the sound mixing in Dunkirk isn't as godawful as it was in Interstellar, but it's not great here either. I think it could win, but if it does, it'll indicate that voters really don't know what sound mixing means, or what it is supposed to accomplish. Instead of Dunkirk, I think this award will go to Star Wars: The Last Jedi or Baby Driver. As I said in my Sound Editing analysis, The Last Jedi just uses sound really, really well. And, for Baby Driver, it's rare that a movie places sound so distinctly at its forefront, and I think it's a frontrunner here because the Academy will want to recognize that.

But, you know what movie puts sound at its forefront in a much better way? Todd Haynes' underlooked Wonderstruck. Maybe it's because there were so many movies with the word Wonder in it (Wonder Woman, Wonder Wheel, and of course Wonder) but this film about two deaf children exploring New York City decades apart is really lovely, and most relevantly, uses sound to tell its story in a really creative and masterful way. The sound editing is strong, and the sound mixing in particular is truly brilliant.

Best Original Score

The score for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is fire. FIRE. Get it?

Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Phantom Thread
Should Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Have Been Nominated: Loving Vincent

This was a GREAT year for film scores. Really, one of the best in recent memory. All five of the nominated scores are really strong, and this category is honestly quite exciting. I think the three standouts, though, have to be Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Phantom Thread, and The Shape of Water. Of the three, I think it's going to be tough for The Shape of Water to win. Not because Alexandre Desplat's score isn't great, but because it's so clearly heavily influenced by his previous work on Amelie. Up against the other two frontrunners, it just is lacking the same originality. So that leaves us with Three Billboards and Phantom Thread, and frankly it'll just come down to a matter of taste. The score for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is so incredibly cool: it's reminiscent of country rock, but like the film itself, feels arch and self-aware. It's a smart score, which underlines the film's tension, aggression, and danger. Then there's the score for Phantom Thread, which is absolutely beautiful, elegant, and lush. They're both great scores, and both are perfect fits for the film they accompany. Personally, I prefer Three Billboards, and find Mildred's main theme in particular to be absolutely addictive, but both of these scores are deserving.

There were many great scores this year which I feel like I could say are deserving of a nomination, but the one that springs to mind first is Loving Vincent. As with all Clint Mansell scores, it's powerful, emotionally stirring, and it truly elevates the already solid film.

Best Original Song

I'm not crying, you're crying.

Will Win: "Mystery of Love" from Call Me by Your Name
Could Win: "Remember Me" from Coco or "This is Me" from The Greatest Showman
Should Win: "Remember Me" from Coco
Should Have Been Nominated: "You Were the Beat of My Heart" from The Lure

These are all some really strong songs, but the secret to predicting this category is to look at the criteria for the category. Voters are asked to consider not only the strength of the song itself, but how it is used in the film. This criteria was added after a lot of songs just stuck their Original Song into the credits, and it does make a difference. It means that songs like "Mighty River" from Mudbound and "Stand Up for Something" from Marshall are longshots, as they're not as prominent in their respective films as the other nominees. "This is Me" has a shot, but it's by last year's winners in this category, Pasek & Paul, and the Academy is usually hesitant to give out awards to the same people in consecutive years unless their achievement can't be ignored. In this case, pretty much everything about The Greatest Showman can be ignored rather easily.

That leaves us with two frontrunners: "Mystery of Love" and "Remember Me." These songs are incredibly successful in their respective films, and for very different reasons. "Remember Me" is a simple and sweet song, which is performed multiple times throughout the film, with increasing returns. This song is part of the fabric of the film. It's lovely, and if you're like me, just hearing the melody on a guitar will bring you back to the emotion you feel watching the film. "Mystery of Love" isn't performed by a character in the movie, but is very much a part of the film. They feel like companion pieces, with the song distilling the essence of the movie into a gem of a song. I think "Mystery of Love" has a bit of an edge. It's a more complex song, has a bit more heft to it when listened to outside the context of the film, and has the benefit of the star-power of writer and performer Sufjan Stevens. So my brain gives "Mystery of Love" the edge, but my heart is quite content to stick with "Remember Me."

I like all of these songs, and there wasn't another song from a film this year that really stands out as a major snub (unlike last year when all of the great songs from Sing Street were unjustly ignored). But there was a low-budget, campy, Polish goth-punk movie musical about man-eating mermaids this year called The Lure and frankly, I would have loved for it to get an Oscar nomination just for the sheer novelty of it. It would have been wild to see any of the songs from this bizarre but weirdly wonderful film get some recognition, and the standout number is probably "You Were the Beat of My Heart." Again, not the BEST song, but I think it would have been wild and unexpected to hear it performed on the Oscar stage.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Judge Patricia Keller in Heroin(e), Breaion King in Traffic Stop, and Eva Schloss in 116 Cameras

Will Win: Heroin(e)
Could Win: Traffic Stop
Should Win:Heroin(e)
Should Have Been Nominated: 116 Cameras

Of the short film categories, the documentary shorts are by far the strongest this year. I really enjoyed all five of these films, and would definitely encourage everyone to check them out. They're really worth seeing, and even at their short runtimes, are some of the most satisfying films I saw all year. The overall quality of these films means it's tough to predict a winner, and I do think a case could be made for any of these five films being named the winner. This category tends to not shy away from difficult subject matter, and the winners in the past three years have all been the nominee that covered arguably the heaviest topic. If that continues here, that would make the frontrunners Traffic Stop and Heroin(e). Traffic Stop is an HBO profile of schoolteacher and dancer Breaion King, who was arrested and beaten by a policeman in a brutal video that went viral. It's a wonderful film about her, that is brutally juxtaposed with the violent dashcam footage of her arrest. It's a really well-done film, which uses this incident to say volumes about the state of civil rights in our country, while also allowing us to get to know King outside of this one incident. It's really good, but I think it will be edged out for a win by personal favorite of the bunch, Heroin(e), which is currently available on Netflix. Heroin(e) follows three women in West Virginia who are working to combat and resolve the state's rampant drug problem. The three women (fire chief Jan Rader, judge Patricia Keller, and street missionary Necia Freeman) are all truly remarkable, and the work they're doing is inspiring and vital. The subject matter is heavy, but the achievements of these heroines is incredibly rewarding. From a filmmaking perspective, I also think this is the strongest nominee, as filmmaker Elaine McMillion Sheldon seamlessly weaves the stories of these women and the people they've helped together into an excellent story.

So, I think those are the two frontrunners, but again, I could see a case made for any of the nominees. Edith + Eddie has probably the most unexpected subject matter. Focusing on a 95 and 96 year-old newlywed, interracial couple, the film starts off as a romance, but becomes a harrowing look at ageism as Edith and Eddie have to truly fight for their rights. I don't want to give anything away, but the ending is incredibly emotional, and the film might have a bigger fanbase than I'm giving it credit for. Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 is a profile of artist Mindy Alper, who struggles with mental illness. The film is a wonderful and complete celebration of Alper and her work, and might score points from voters simply because it's the only movie which has moments of humor amidst the more difficult topics it tackles. The only nominee I would be surprised to take home the title is Knife Skills, about the fine-dining restaurant Edwins which is staffed entirely by former prisoners. It's really good, but as far as films about the rehabilitation of prisoners go, I think Heroin(e) is far more hard-hitting and powerful, so I think this year it might just be outshined given the similarity of what is discussed.

I'm genuinely thrilled that all of these films were nominated, but there was one film from the shortlist that also really resonated with me. The New York Times documentary 116 Cameras tells the story of Eva Schloss, a Holocaust survivor who enters a futuristic looking cage of cameras to tell her story so it may be preserved for future prosperity. I wouldn't say it's necessarily better than any of the nominees, but I do think it could have held its own in this strong field.

Best Animated Short Film

Lou, Negative Space, and World of Tomorrow Episode 2: The Burden of Other People's Thoughts

Will Win: Lou
Could Win: Negative Space
Should Win: Negative Space
Should Have Been Nominated: World of Tomorrow Episode 2: The Burden of Other People's Thoughts

Traditionally, Pixar doesn't have the utter dominance in the short films category that they have in the feature-length category. But, they still do quite well here, and in the absence of a real masterpiece among the often nominees, Pixar shorts are usually a safe bet. That's the case this year with Lou, about a fight between playground bully and a sentient pile of lost and found items (it makes sense in the movie, I promise). As with most things from Pixar, it's really well-made. It's a good story, and is probably the most universally likable short of the bunch.

Of the other nominees, none jump out as a clear winner to unseat Lou in this category. Dear Basketball is an animated treatment of a poem by Kobe Bryant, and Bryant narrates the film. It's nice enough, and has the draw of celebrity the way the other nominees don't, but it doesn't leave much of an impact. Revolting Rhymes also has some celebrity sway: it's based off of a Roald Dahl book and features a star-studded voice cast. But, it's also not too remarkable, and with a runtime that's longer than all the other nominees combined, still doesn't manage to say as much or leave as much of an impression as the other films.

If a non-Pixar movie takes home the trophy, I think it'll be one of the two remaining nominees. Garden Party could win for its gorgeous animation alone. The film, about a group of frogs taking up residence in an abandoned mansion, is beautiful to watch, and at times it's hard to believe these frogs are animated at all. But it's also the weirdest of the nominees, and I think it might prove too divisive to earn the votes to win the category. I think a better case can be made for Negative Space, a first-person narrative of a man who bonded with his deceased father over the art of packing luggage. The film's stop-motion animation is wildly creative, and was my personal favorite to watch. The movie tells us that one of the secrets to packing is to use all of your space well, and that translates to the movie's success. It's a short, but every second of screentime is utilized perfectly. It's a sweet little gem and, with the most accolades from various festivals going into the Oscars, might just be a dark horse contender for the prize.

But the truth is that none of these nominees can hold a candle to Don Hertzfeldt's World of Tomorrow Episode 2: The Burden of Other People's Thoughts. Hertfeldt is a consistent Oscar bridesmaid. Previously, his brilliant films Rejected and the first World of Tomorrow were nominated in this category but didn't win. And this time, his sci-fi sequel failed to even make the shortlist for this category. It's tough to know what more the Academy wants Hertzfeldt to do. Both installments in the World of Tomorrow series are amazing: they're funny, profound, and utterly original. Let's hope that a third World of Tomorrow is coming our way: not just because it would mean we could all keep learning more about the life of Emily Prime and her various future selves, but because maybe the Oscars could finally give this man the Oscar he so distinctly deserves. And if you don't know what I'm talking about, please see these films. They're currently both available on Vimeo.

Best Live Action Short Film

The Eleven O'Clock, The Silent Child, and DeKalb Elementary

Will Win: The Eleven O'Clock
Could Win: The Silent Child
Should Win: DeKalb Elementary
Should Have Been Nominated: I don't know. I have not seen any other live action short films this year other than the nominees. I'm so sorry, dear readers, I have failed you.

Four of the nominated films are dramas, and when I say drama I don't mean quiet family dramas, I mean really harrowing stuff. My definite favorite of the lot is DeKalb Elementary, about a school shooting. As soon as the film starts and the shooter pulls out his gun, I felt myself get tense, and I'm not sure I breathed for the entire 21 minute runtime. This movie was so wonderfully understated, to the point that it felt uncomfortably real (much credit is deserved for actors Bo Mitchell as the would-be shooter, and especially Tarra Riggs as a super-humanly calm receptionist). To anyone worried that the film might be exploitative, I will say that I was completely drawn into it, and the script was written around an actual 911 phone call from an attempted school shooting, which really does help the film feel so authentic. It was really strong, but also incredibly difficult to watch. The same can be said of other nominees like My Nephew Emmett which is about the 1955 murder of Emmett Till, and Watu Wote/All of Us which is about a bus attacked by terrorists on the Kenya/Somalia border. These were probably my three favorites of the nominees, but I don't think any will win because they're just so hard to watch. This category often features some really bleak films, and they just never win, with the Academy deferring to more pleasant  films, like Stutterer and Sing which have won in the past two years. Even when sadder films have won (such as the brilliant short The Phone Call) they tend to be more heartwarmingly sad as opposed to viscerally challenging.

Which bodes well for fare like The Silent Child. This is probably the most likely winner on paper. It has received quite a few accolades already, and seems to be the film that most critics have singled out. It's the prettiest looking of the nominees, and I imagine it had the biggest budget to account for its high production values. It's also a movie with a great message. The film is about a social-worker working with a young deaf girl whose parents seem uninterested in her progress, and are specifically adverse to the child being taught sign language. The social-worker is played by Rachel Shenton, who also wrote the film, and this film is clearly a labor of love for her. When Shenton was twelve, her father became deaf, and ever since Shenton has been an activist, raising awareness of deafness in the UK, and becoming an ambassador for the National Deaf Children's Society. This is a movie with a message: that deaf children should be supported and too often they are failed by their families and the school system. I agree wholeheartedly with the message, but I was not as taken with the movie as most critics seemed to be. This film was VERY heavy-handed, and to be honest, it felt like more of a PSA than a short film, mostly due to the ending. It's a noble film, but I'd be hard-pressed to call it a good one. Most people seem to be giving this film the highest odds, but I just can't justify it given how unsatisfying I found the film to be.

Which leaves The Eleven O'Clock, a comedy about a psychiatrist whose new patient suffers from the delusion that he's also a psychiatrist, and both men grow increasingly frustrated with trying to help the other. It's a funny movie, with a great dose of quirk and charm, and while it essentially never goes beyond its initial premise, it's a good premise which allows for some really good moments. Do I think it's the best film of the bunch? No. But given that it's the only comedy, it stands out amongst the bunch. Imagine you're an Oscar voter. You've just watched four incredibly depressing short films. and then you see this movie. Watching The Eleven O'Clock would feel like such a relief! Which is why I think it'll be the winner. Not because it's the best, but because it stands out among the pack.


So, there you have it! My predictions in all categories. How does my ballot compare to yours? Who will be victorious on Oscar night?! What will be the biggest upsets?! We'll have to wait to find out on March 4th!