Thursday, January 18, 2024

The Best Films of 2023: Part 1

Here it is—at long last, I present to you my picks for the Top 30 Films of 2023. I’ve seen many commentators talk about how this was a particularly great year for movies, which is an odd statement to me. It’s been a great year for movies, sure, but every year offers some great films if you know where to look. I happen to think this WAS a particularly great year for movies, but I have found my tastes in films in 2023 more at odds with the critical consensus than normal. While my picks tend to have their share of more “obscure” titles and underrated gems, it has felt like this year there were more than normal, with plenty of phenomenal films that didn’t get the attention they deserved. As many celebrate the return of the blockbuster, 2023 was a great year for independent film for me, and I hope that several of the films I’ve listed here pique your interest and can gain some attention in future years. So let’s begin the list! And despite what I’ve just said, we’ll be starting with what was undoubtedly one the biggest films of the year…

30) Barbie


Given Barbie’s success with both audiences and critics, it’s easy to forget just how unlikely this movie was to be a critical darling. When rumors of a Barbie movie were first going around years ago, the project was a thing of ridicule, and seen as the epitome of Hollywood’s lack of original ideas. If we’re being honest, we have to acknowledge that Barbie really is just one giant commercial for Mattel…but what a great commercial it is! What Greta Gerwig has done with the concept of Barbie is absolutely brilliant—it’s a film that is insightful, playful, and inexplicably manages to feel genuinely original. Gerwig and her team of designers have created one of the best fantasy worlds in recent cinematic history—one that feels fully realized and accessible to audience members with various levels of familiarity with Barbies. There’s a lot going on in Barbie—it’s genuinely one of the funniest comedies of the year, but is also an epic adventure film, a heartfelt examination of the patriarchy, a visual wonder, and kind of a musical. Gerwig manages to not only pull off each of the film’s many aspects, but make them feel cohesive so that no moment of Barbie feels out of place with any other. Barbie may not be a perfect movie, but it’s hands down the most ambitious film of the year, and a truly remarkable accomplishment which defied expectations and earned every ounce of its critical and commercial success.

 

29) Reality


If you don’t know the story of Reality Winner by now, it’s definitely worth learning about her. Winner—at the time, an NSA translator— was arrested in 2018 and sentenced to jailtime for leaking classified information to the press about Russia’s interference in the 2016 United States presidential election. Seemingly in an effort to make an example out of her actions, Winner was given a disproportionate sentence of over five years—the longest sentence for such a felony ever imposed in judicial history. Winner’s case has been examined quite a bit—there’s a documentary and several TV shows have done profiles about her. But Reality is one of the most intriguing and innovative tellings of Winner’s story. The dialogue that comprises the script is taken verbatim from the FBI transcript of Winner’s arrest, detailing the ways in which Winner incriminated herself, and showing what presents itself as an honest depiction of her actions and feelings in those crucial moments. Writer and director Tina Satter first explored this idea with her play Is This a Room, which eventually played a limited run on Broadway and is one of the best pieces of theatre I’ve seen in recent years. And while the stage version was stronger in my opinion, Reality is nonetheless a fascination adaptation of this transcript, and a powerful and riveting thriller. What I love about this type of verbatim work is how strange such dialogue is inevitably going to sound. When words aren’t carefully composed and edited by a screenwriter, the language inevitably feels off in some way, despite it being so true to life. Satter leans into this surrealism, and succeeds in making the mundane feel nightmarish. The cast, for their part, are all phenomenal, with current showbiz “It-Girl” Sydney Sweeney delivering the best and most interesting performance of her career thus far as Winner.

 

28) Onyx the Fortuitous and the Talisman of Souls


Certainly a contender for the best title of the year, Onyx the Fortuitous and the Talisman of Souls already has the feel of a cult classic. At the start of the film, Onyx is still living in his childhood home and working a humiliating job flipping burgers for bullies. But everything turns around for him when he wins a contest thrown by the sorcerer Bartok the Great to gather at his mansion with other lucky winners to help him complete an important ritual (think Willy Wonka but for satanists). Onyx is over the moon, but when he arrives for the ritual it immediately becomes clear that the invited guests have not been told the full story, and a prophecy implies that Onyx is the one who must rise up and save the world. I hadn’t known about the character of Onyx the Fortuitous until watching this film, but filmmaker Andrew Bowser has been playing this character for years in a series of viral videos from wonderfully weird corners of the internet. But it’s immediately understandable to me why this character has developed a following. Nerdy and awkward, Bowser’s characterization of Onyx is so specific and so odd that it’s impossible to not find him compelling. To be honest, it’s the type of character that I wouldn’t have thought could sustain a feature-length film (and if you find the character grating at the start, my guess is this film is quite simply not going to be your cup of tea) but I was amazed at not just how funny Onyx continued to be, but just how satisfying the film ended up being. One of my favorite things about Onyx the Fortuitous and the Talisman of Souls is that, while crucial bits of the film’s mythology are spelled out, many of the details happen off-screen. The whole point of Onyx is that he’s not a natural hero, but he’s the one who fate has chosen. And as other more naturally heroic characters piece together the film’s central puzzle, we are given just enough information to glean what’s going on while the film hints at a grander lore just out of sight. It’s some really interesting storytelling, and part of a deliberate story which leads to a genuinely touching climactic battle scene. Onyx the Fortuitous and the Talisman of Souls frankly feels like it has no right to be as great as it is—a film that could have simply been a grand old time mines far more emotional insight and nuance than you would expect, and we are all the better for it. Throw in a great cast who is having fun in every single frame and some of the most delightful practical visual effects in any movie this year, and Onyx the Fortuitous and the Talisman of Souls is a film as winning and full of surprises as its titular character. The ending very much sets up the potential for a franchise, and I for one would be on board for any and all future stories in the Onyx the Fortuitous universe.

 

27) Talk to Me


Talk to Me
might not be breaking any ground in the world of horror, but sometimes it’s just nice to see a really, really, really well-made horror film. Talk to Me follows Mia (Sophie Wilde), a teenager still trying to cope with the death of her mother from two years ago. She learns of the latest activity being done at all of the parties thrown by the “cool kids”—letting the spirits of the dead inhabit you by touching an enchanted ceramic hand. When Mia tries it out, she finds the experience exhilarating, and grows increasingly fascinated when she discovers the possibility of using the hand to communicate with her mother. This is a film with a lot of genre savvy, and it plays up a lot of genre tropes, like teenagers making bad decisions at every turn. But Talk to Me actually gives some great context for WHY its characters are making such bad decisions. These are teenagers after all, and even as the dangers of such an activity become increasingly apparent to us as a viewer, the sheer thrill the characters seem to get out of it feels completely natural and understandable within the context of the film. Mia’s own fascination with using The Hand is even more understandable—it is a story about how grief can cause us to act out in self-destructive ways. The hand becomes a very clear but compelling parallel for drug use, and is sympathetic towards Mia’s downward spiral while still showing the danger of it. Wilde is phenomenal here, and I imagine this movie is just the start of a long film career for her—she’s incredibly expressive, and can turn from wide-eyed innocence to monstrous menace on a dime. And the filmmaking from brothers Danny and Michael Philippou is exceptional. The sequences where the characters communicate with the dead are exceptional, and manages to show us the appeal of such an activity for the characters even as we dread the consequences that will soon become apparent. Talk to Me is entertaining enough to be accessible to any audience member, while still carrying the emotional heft of what has become known as “arthouse horror,” and is an instant classic in the world of contemporary horror.

 

26) Smoking Causes Coughing


Quentin Dupieux, if nothing else, has one of the strongest artistic viewpoints of any director working today. Dupieux is a true Dadaist—his work is ridiculous for its own sake, and frequently defies the idea that a film has to have a reason or purpose. It means that his work can be inconsistent, but is always imaginative and provocative—he’s like the rebel clown of the cinematic world. He’s also prolific, releasing two feature films this year. One was the delightful modern fable Incredible but True, which I enjoyed quite a bit. But Smoking Causes Coughing has become one of my favorite films in Dupieux’s filmography, and I think would serve as a great introduction for anyone interested in his work. In true Dupieux fashion, this film isn’t really about anything, but it is centered around the members of a Power Rangers-esque superhero troupe known as Tobacco Force (despite the name, they’re wholeheartedly AGAINST smoking). After their latest victorious battle against a giant turtle, their boss Chief Didier (a truly disgusting rat monster puppet) sends them on a work retreat to improve group cohesion. But their attempts at group bonding repeatedly get derailed by a series of strange stories, including one told by a fish. An anthology film like this is the perfect showing for an anti-filmmaker like Dupieux, allowing the frantic nature of his style to feel appropriate while he fully explores the playground in his mind. Silly and indescribably, Smoking Causes Coughing is unforgettable and absolutely unlike anything else from this or any other year.

 

25) The Zone of Interest


The feel-bad film of the year, The Zone of Interest deserves all of the acclaim it has received for its storytelling technique alone. The film examines Rudolf Höss (Christian Friedel), the notorious Nazi officer who was the longest-serving commandant at Auschwitz. During his time in the position, his family lived right next to the camp, aware of but not engaging with the horrific things taking place just over the wall. Writer and director Jonathan Glazer has made a film that shows an almost otherworldly level of patience and restraint—if you aren’t paying attention, it can feel like absolutely nothing is happening in most scenes. But Glazer also has a great amount of trust in his audience, and earns said trust with every moment of the film. The lack of action is, of course, the very point of the film—the mundanity of the Höss family’s life juxtaposed with what we know is happening just off-screen. Glazer manages to depict the Höss family as human without humanizing them—in fact, the more normal they act, the more monstrous their behavior seems. The moments where the cast directly acknowledges the horrors of Auschwitz are few, but when they come they are undeniably chilling. One of the most evil moments of the film (and, frankly, of any film) comes in a scene where, after receiving bad news at breakfast, Rudolf’s wife Hedwig (Sandra Hüller) threatens a Jewish housekeeper by saying, “I could have my husband spread your ashes across the fields of Barbice.” Outside of these scant moments, however, most of the evil of the film is apparent almost solely through the film’s masterful sound design. There’s a near-constant backdrop of noise in the background—the sounds of trains, the sounds of screaming, the sound of heavy machinery, etc. It makes the off-screen setting omnipresent, and the lack of acknowledgement of it particularly deafening. Perhaps most unsettling of all, as the film goes on, you as an audience member grow accustomed to the nightmarish soundscape, just as the family itself must have—putting one in an uncomfortable position every time you’re reminded of what you’ve been hearing. It’s difficult at this point to make a film that feels like it says something new about the Holocaust, but The Zone of Interest undeniably does. It’s horrific and unforgettable—a devastating film that is difficult to watch, but nonetheless demands to be seen.

 

24) Rotting in the Sun


I’ll admit to not being sold on Rotting in the Sun for the first half of the movie. Writer and director Sebastián Silva stars as, well, a filmmaker named Sebastián Silva who is struggling with depression and trying to find inspiration for his next project. I’m not sure how much the character of Sebastián Silva is like the real life version, but he’s pretty insufferable in the film—self-destructive and sullen, he actively pushes away the people in his life and, in turn, the audience. I didn’t know much about the film going into it, but knew it had gotten praise and been designated “a future cult classic,” and I was incredibly confused as to why. And then, without giving much away, something happens that completely changes the course of the film. It was like a magic trick—suddenly the purpose of the film up until that point came into sharp focus, and I was hooked. I don’t want to say much more than that, because Rotting in the Sun is a film that understands its shock value better than maybe any film I’ve ever seen, and leads down a path that is suspenseful and delightful in equal measure. I can’t guarantee everyone will love this film, but I promise it will surprise you (as long as you stick with it). I do have to give some shoutouts to the performances. Actor and social media comedian Jordan Firstman, like Silva, plays a gleefully vapid version of himself that is a lot of fun to watch. But the film belongs to scene-stealer Catalina Saavedra as Silva’s housekeeper Vero. This is hands down one of the best performances of the year. Starting off in the background of the film, she’s already fascinating to watch, but as Vero becomes an increasingly entwined in the movie’s nefarious doings, she becomes transcendent. Vero’s actions often feel cartoonish, yet Saavedra’s performance is so natural that you never second-guess them. It’s a hilarious performance that truly is the heart of this film, and it’s worth watching just to watch Saavedra in action.

 

23) She Came to Me


An operetta composer with writers’ block. A psychiatrist with aspirations to become a nun and a story to tell involving kreplach. An officious lawyer who loves arbitrary rules almost as much as he loves Civil War reenactments. A tugboat captain with a self-proclaimed addiction to romance who seduces men in bars. A French Bulldog with a keen sense of direction. These are just some of the ensemble cast of characters whose lives intertwine in She Came to Me, the latest film from Rebecca Miller. This film received mixed reviews upon its release, but I for one was utterly charmed by it—the musings on love were unexpectedly poignant, and the ensemble cast was one of the best of the year. To say too much about the plot would be a shame, as much of the delight comes from the ways the lives of the principal characters intersect in unforeseen ways, but like any good story of this nature, Miller’s script is meticulous—it keeps you guessing as to what will happen before culminating in an end that feels absolutely correct. It’s a very sweet film, bolstered by some excellent work. In the sprawling cast, Peter Dinklage is the de fact leading actor, and plays Steven, the aforementioned operetta composer with writers’ block. Steven is plagued by anxiety and indecision and spends much of the film wallowing in his own misery. One of Dinklage’s great strengths as an actor is his ability to make you want to root for him—he doesn’t shy away from Steven’s worst qualities, and is often sullen to the point of being unbearable, and yet you immediately buy him as a true tortured genius, and always root for him to recognize his own self-worth. Anne Hathaway gives what is probably her funniest performance to date in a role that is deceptively composed until the moments that she gets to absolutely let loose (you can tell Hathaway is having an absolute blast). Brian d’Arcy James is insufferable in the best way, and Cold War’s Joanna Kulig gives a compassionate and unpretentious performance in what I believe is her English-language film debut. But if there’s a standout in this cast, it has to be Marisa Tomei, who gives what would have been an Oscar-worthy performance had the film gotten the more positive reception it deserved. She’s truly magnetic, and you can understand why other characters in the film would be drawn to her and won over by her significant charm. It’s a role that, frankly, could have been a mess—she’s dangerously close to being some sort of “crazy stalker” trope—but Tomei rises above the expected portrayal of such a role, and succeeds in making her feel lived-in, and avoids making her an object of ridicule. While Tomei doesn’t have the most screentime, she’s the center of the delightful puzzle that is She Came To Me, and it’s wonderful to watch this film’s mysteries swirl around her scene after scene.

 

22) Anatomy of a Fall


Palme d’or winner Anatomy of a Fall might not be the most groundbreaking film, but it is a near-perfect example of how great a legal thriller can be. It’s smart, gripping, and filled with increasingly satisfying twists and turns. The film follows the trial of Sandra Voyter (Sandra Hüller) who is charged with murdering her husband, who either fell, jumped, or was pushed from the attic of his home. As the trial continues, secrets regarding Sandra’s life and marriage come to light, raising questions about her morality and innocence. As much as the film is about the central court case, the truth behind the death isn’t ultimately important—the film, in fact, doesn’t definitively answer the question of Sandra’s innocence one way or the other, although I feel pretty strongly in what I feel happened. Instead, the most important decision in regards to what actually happened lands on Sandra’s son Daniel (Milo Machado Graner), allowing the film to shift the public trial into the realm of the personal. It’s a question of the messiness of human relations, and the dangers of intimate details getting thrust into a public light. Anatomy of a Fall, of course, would not work without Hüller’s performance. The film requires a degree of ambiguity, and Hüller always makes us believe that Sandra might be capable of committing this crime. But we equally believe that Sandra would never do such a thing, and Hüller resists any urge to play the quality of “suspicious” in her performance. Anatomy of a Fall is suspenseful, meticulous, and haunting, and will forever be regarded as a future classic in its genre.

 

21) Perfect Days


Simplicity is a difficult thing quality to have in a film. When a film is too simplistic, it can sometimes feel like, well, nothing is happening. But when a “simple” film actually has something to say, it can be a thing of beauty. Such is the case with Perfect Days, Japan’s submission to the Oscars this year about a man named Hirayama (Kōji Yakusho) who works as a toilet cleaner in Tokyo. The film only takes place over the course of a few days, during which we observe Hirayama’s life and become familiar with his daily routines. And while few would argue that his days are as perfect as the title suggests, it’s clear Hirayama takes pride in his work and is content with the life he’s leading. Of course, as the film goes on, we learn a bit more about his life and history, and see his frustrations at daily obstacles that pop up. These obstacles vary in terms of how significantly they affect Hirayama, but director Wim Wenders (who co-wrote the script with Takuma Takasaki) maintains a sense of restraint throughout the film. The smallest moments become incredibly affecting—the briefest moments of joy feel euphoric, and the slightest hardships feel devastating. Much of the film’s success rests on Yakusho, who is in every scene and nearly ever frame of the film. Yakusho—who won Best Actor at Cannes for this role— is one of the best film actors of all time, and his performance here is a masterclass. As Hirayama, he carries himself with a quiet dignity that is endearing and powerful. There is always a sense of something fuller going on right below the surface; a complexity right underneath the calm. It’s a character study that is endlessly interesting without ever feeling like it’s trying too hard. The whole film reaches a climax where Hirayama drives his car listening to Nina Simone’s “Feeling Good,” while the camera sits in extreme close-up on Yakusho’s face. In just a couple of minutes, Yakusho’s face runs through just about every emotion it possibly could. I imagine the ending will feel different to me every time I watch it: is he grieving, is he at peace, is he feeling free? There’s no right answer, and that’s what makes Perfect Days so extraordinary. It’s a film that will meaning something different to everyone, but is guaranteed to make everyone feel something.

 

20) Blind Willow, Sleeping Woman


It wasn’t long ago that many considered the works of beloved author Haruki Murakami unfilmable. His signature dreamlike quality felt so inherent to his writing that, while his stories could still be told in other mediums, it felt obvious that something would be lost by taking them off of the page. Luckily, we’ve seen several great film adaptations of Murakami works over the last few years specifically, including Burning, Drive My Car, and now Blind Willow, Sleeping Woman. This animated film adapts six different short stories, and while it might not be the best film to be adapted from Murakami’s works, it might be the closest a film has come to truly translating his style to film. For one thing, Blind Willow, Sleeping Woman is animated (beautifully, at that) and it becomes clear early on that this allows filmmaker Pierre Földes to truly embrace the surreal. Sometimes this surrealism is obvious—one of the two most prominent stories in the film involves a human-sized Frog who repeatedly visits a mild-mannered banker insisting he aid him in his war against a worm who causes earthquakes. Other times it’s more subtle, like Földes’ choice to sketch most background characters as outlines, existing only on the fringes of the principal characters’ lives. These choices give the whole film a sort of lyrical quality which makes the potentially stranger story elements feel completely purposeful. This is a film where magic feels like it is real—the type of film you experience rather than just watch. And while I’m sure there are some viewers who will wish for more of a clear resolution to some of the storylines or philosophical ideas brought up over the course of the film, the journey of the film itself is one very much worth taking. This is a mature, hypnotic film, and in a year with a lot of great animation, shouldn’t be forgotten.

 

19) Joyland


In 2022, Joyland became the first Pakistani film to be included on the shortlist for Best International Film at the Oscars. Perhaps because the film had not been released in theaters yet, it couldn’t gain enough buzz to earn one of the five nominations, and instead was quietly released a few months later. Which is such a shame, because the fact that Joyland was even selected for submission to the Oscars was a bit of a miracle—it is the first Pakistani film to feature a transgender actor in a leading role, and was almost not released due to heavy protests against the film, and is still banned in parts of the country. So it’s an important and groundbreaking film, and separate from that, happens to be a very good one. The film is about Haider (Ali Junejo), an unemployed married man who is desperately searching for work. He finds a job as a backup dancer to Biba (Alina Khan), an erotic dancer who is transgender. Despite his own hesitations, knowing that his family would not approve of this work, Haider takes the job. As he gets to know Biba better, his own prejudices are challenged, and feelings for Biba begin to arise. It’s a touching film, one which gives its characters space to exist and grow. While the film is political by its own existence, it is ultimately a character-driven piece, one far more interested in telling a story than making a statement. In other words, it’s not trying to be groundbreaking, it merely is, and takes on that responsibility with much grace. Junejo’s portrayal of Haider—a flawed romantic at odds with the notions of masculinity which surround him— is sweet and contemplative. Khan is utterly captivating, so that we are as an audience are as drawn to her as Haider is. But Biba is much more than an object of desire, and Khan shows us every aspect of Biba—both her authentic self, and the confident stage persona she has developed in order to survive. As great as both of them are (and they truly are) my favorite performance in the film surprisingly came from Rasti Farooq, who plays Haider’s wife Mumtaz. This is a role which easily could have been disappointing or unimportant, but she’s as important to the central story as either Haider or Biba. Surrounded by the same frustrations with society as Haider and Biba, Joyland gives Mumtaz her own journey—one that is unanticipated and ultimately quite heartbreaking. Farooq plays Mumtaz as independent and in control even as she begins to questions the norms of the world around her, and her performance ultimately brings the larger point of Joyland into wonderful clarity. It is my hope that filmmaker Saim Sadiq continues to make films like this which push the boundaries and cause controversy—and hopefully his future efforts can garner him the recognition he deserves.

 

18) The Five Devils


The Five Devils
offers one of my absolute favorite characters of the year. Vicky Soler (Sally Dramé) is not your ordinary 10-year old: she has a supernaturally powerful sense of smell. This allows her to have a keen sense of her surroundings (during an experiment, she is able to navigate while blindfolded) and allows her to recreate the scents of those close to her in an odd collection of bottles. On the more fantastical side of things, Vicky can even use smells to conjure memories from other peoples’ pasts—transporting her into the past through some sort of olfactory witchcraft. This becomes particularly important when Vicky’s estranged aunt Julia (Swala Emati) arrives unexpectedly. Julia’s presence is met with a degree of confusion from her father, Jimmy (Moustapha Mbengue), and outright hostility from her mother, Joanna (Adèle Exarchopoulos). Vicky’s gift allows her to unravel the complicated history of her family, and we see the dangers of ignoring the past before it collides with the present. There’s something immensely intriguing about The Five Devils. Director Léa Mysius gives the film a dreamlike aesthetic, invoking at once a childlike wonder and a sense of surreal menace. It’s an intoxicating and unsettling film—and grows increasingly eerie as the tragic story at its center comes more sharply into focus. The cast is also excellent. Dramé is fascinating to watch, and encapsulates both the innocence and great power inherent in young Vicky. But the film truly rests on the performances of Emati and Exarchopoulos. Emati was given a difficult role here—the whole point of Julia is that she’s a bit of a cipher, but Emati rises to the challenge. She is at once haunting and haunted—encapsulating Julia’s grief and anger perfectly. Exarchopoulos has been doing amazing work for several years now, and I’m always impressed not just with her work, but with the types of projects she gravitates towards. She’s marvelous here—bringing to life a character who always feels like she’s hiding something below the surface. The Five Devils is a surprising and enchanting tale—one that is sinister, romantic, and wholly original.

 

17) Rye Lane


In general, rom-coms are not a genre I actively seek out. The genre sadly tends to fall into overused tropes, lazy jokes, and a general lack of originality. But then a film like Rye Lane comes along which reminds me that rom-coms can still be innovative, exciting, and genuinely funny. Rye Lane follows Dom (David Jonsson) and Yas (Vivian Oparah), who meet at an art exhibition and bond over both having recently going through breakups. A friendship quickly starts, and over the course of a single day, that friendship shows signs of becoming something more (although not without its share of speedbumps along the way). These speedbumps are actually part of what sets Rye Lane apart from other films in its genre—the film feels so rich and layered that the difficulties these characters face in their relationship feel genuine and serious, giving the film real stakes. You don’t feel it’s a given that everything will be tied up with a bow at the end, and while I do think Rye Lane has a satisfying and “happy” ending, I was truly surprised and impressed with its ability to resolve these characters’ arcs in a way that felt both unexpected and satisfying. Of course, any rom-com needs great leads, and Jonsson and Oparah are both excellent. Dom is a bit of a meek character (he begins the film by crying on the toilet) but Jonsson doesn’t let that trait hold him back. In Jonsson’s hands, Dom is intelligent and endearing, and he feels fully realized despite playing the quieter of the two characters. But the film really does belong to Oparah, who is an absolute star in the making. Thanks to Oparah, Yas is full of life and absolutely pops off the screen. It’s a performance that is entertaining, but also raw and vibrant and utterly effortless. Even without these incredibly strong performances, though, there would be a lot to love about Rye Lane. Director Raine Allen-Miller directs Rye Lane with a lot of visual flair, creating an atmosphere that feels energetic, youthful, and urgent, all while depicting the city of London in a way I’ve never gotten to see on film. Rye Lane is an absolute breath of fresh air, and one which will appeal to rom-com lovers and skeptics alike.

 

16) Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse


Let’s get this out of the way first: this would be even higher on my list if it had been a complete movie. It’s not that I mind that this is just the first part of a film—when the second part comes out, I eagerly look forward to watching it and viewing these as two parts of the same film. But when it comes to subjectively ranking films this year, I have to admit that this film is by design incomplete. And now that that’s out of the way…let’s talk about what a gamechanger Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is. I still remember the feeling with Into the Spider-Verse came out. It arrived right at a time that the much discussed cultural “superhero fatigue” was starting to set in, and it felt like an absolute breath of fresh air. Everything about it felt like a comic book come to life, yet was inherently cinematic, and used animation and sound in ambitious ways that I’d truly never seen before. To have a sequel on the same level would have been exciting, but I never would have imagined that a sequel would try to push the boundaries even further. While multiverses have becomes incredibly popular in film over the last few years (in part because of the success of Into the Spider-Verse, I might add), this actually feels like a multiverse—the sound and visuals are so high-octane that you often feel like you’re experiencing five movies at once. It’s a visceral experience, and one which truly pushes the envelope in terms of what type of storytelling can be done on screen. But this is not an example of style over substance—the script is just as ambitious as the craft, and in one film raises more genuinely interesting questions about the nature of heroism than in several phases of the MCU. Across the Spider-Verse is a promising look at the future of filmmaking, and it’s only just the beginning,

 

15) You Hurt My Feelings


It’s been a few years since Nicole Holofcener last directed a film (although in the meantime she did receive an Oscar nomination for writing the screenplay to Can You Ever Forgive Me?) and it’s wonderful to see a film from her again. Holofcener is masterful at creating complicated characters whose faults only serve to make them more compelling. You Hurt My Feelings is about married couple Beth and Don (Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Tobias Menzies) who are both dealing with professional dissatisfaction. Beth is a well-known memoirist who has written her first ever novel and is finding it hard to sell to publishers who only know her for her non-fiction work. Don is a therapist who is worried he is not helping his patients make any actual progress—especially when a couple who has been seeing him directly confront him for his inability to “fix” their probably doomed marriage. Luckily, Beth and Don have a strong relationship, and can rely on each other even as the rest of their lives are in turmoil…or so they think. The film takes a turn when Beth overhears Don speaking ill of her novel which he previously claimed to have enjoyed, causing both of them to doubt the very dynamic they had previously relied on. You Hurt My Feelings is a film about many things: the joys of relishing in pettiness, the sheer inability to please everyone in our lives, and the idea that the illusion of success might be more satisfying than success itself. But above all, it’s about the utter mundanity that inevitably accompanies a crippling fear of failure. That fear of failure is present when Beth’s sister Sarah (Michaela Watkins, excellent), an interior decorator, consistently fails to find the right lamp for a particularly picky client. It’s present when Sarah’s husband Mark (Arian Moayed) questions his own career after his successful acting career experiences what appears to be its first-ever hiccup. It’s present when Don goes out on a limb to be honest with his patients, only for the directness they’d asked for to be utterly rejected and thrown back in his face. It’s present when Beth realizes that the students she teaches are completely unfamiliar with her work and, in fact, are primarily fans of the author she views as her rival and nemesis. A lot of this could be annoying to watch, but Holofcener’s script is so sharp and her cast is so strong that it becomes inexplicably endearing—like Charlie Brown kicking the football, the characters are despondent but approach each scene with a hope that maybe this time they’ll get it right. The whole cast is amazing, but obviously the heft of the film rests on the shoulders of Louis-Dreyfus and Menzies. Louis-Dreyfus is, of course, amazing—she’s one of the greatest comedic actors we have, and Beth is as in her wheelhouse as a role can get. But Menzies—much better known for his dramatic work—matches her beat for beat. His actorly approach gives Don a vulnerability which nicely compliments Louis-Dreyfus, and as a unit, they make for a really welcoming central couple. This film got sadly overlooked for much of the year, but perhaps that’s a fitting fate for two of the year’s most down-on-their luck heroes.

 

14) Poor Things


It’s still amazing to me that Yorgos Lanthimos has turned into such a reliably prestige filmmaker. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s wonderful, but typically when a filmmaker is so audaciously weird, they’re delegated to the “not for everyone” category. But Lanthimos keeps churning out bizarre film after bizarre film and is only receiving more and more mainstream success and I truly love to see it. I think part of why Lanthimos has so much appeal is that what we refer to as “weirdness” in his filmography feels completely genuine. Poor Things is not being weird for weirdnesses sake—rather, Lanthimos clearly and firmly establishes the rules of the world of his film which just happens to be “weird” and lets everything exist authentically within those guidelines. Poor Things follows Bella Baxter (Emma Stone) the latest experiment from your everyday neighborhood mad scientist Godwin Baxter (Willem Dafoe), who embarks on a journey of discovery and self-betterment. Poor Things is, during its worst moments, very interesting, but in its best moments it’s absolutely transcendent. It’s tough to say if this is Lanthimos’ best movie to date, but it’s undeniably his most ambitious. Bella Baxter’s story is epic and extravagant, and features a whole lot of over-the-top design choices which at times feel dizzying, but never unintentional or out of place. As Bella sees the world, Lanthimos made a great choice to not ever film on location in the various famous cities depicted, instead creating funhouse versions of them—the effect is a world that’s disorienting through its own whimsy, familiar yet disconcerting. It would all be too much if not for a series of strong performances which ground the film. Dafoe is doing unexpectedly understated work—his character becomes an unlikely source of sympathy, and he delivers one of the quieter performances in the film when he’s not belching out bubbles. But, obviously, this movie belongs to Stone. This is career-best work, and the film would not work without her. This is a tough role—one that has to be vulnerable while being audacious, and funny without being foolish. She nails it, and is simply magnetic on screen. Poor Things is more than just a glamorous curiosity, it’s a tour de force with moments of genuine magic.

 

13) Cassandro


Every year, the Oscars recognize their fair share of biopics, and every year, I get bored by the same old biopic tropes being trotted out movie after movie. It’s exhausting, and I increasingly set myself up for disappointment with every biopic that I watch. But occasionally, I’ll see a biopic which reminds me of how wonderful a biopic can actually be. Such is the case with Cassandro, which tells the story of Saúl Armendáriz, a lucha libre wrestler from the 1908s who performs under the name Cassandro. Cassandro competes as an exótico, a type of luchador who performs in drag and acts effeminately in the ring. Like any good biopic, Cassandro doesn’t just tell Armendáriz’s story, it makes a case for why his story SHOULD be told. Given the manliness inherent in most luchadores, the idea of the exótico used to be one of ridicule—they were set up as the opponent who would rightfully lose to the more macho fighter. But, as told by the film, Cassandro changed this viewpoint. He became undeniably popular, and someone audiences wanted to see emerge victorious not just in spite of his flamboyant persona but because of it. It’s a beautiful, crowd-pleasing, underdog story—like if Rocky Balboa was a gay Mexican man living in El Paso. This film makes the world of lucha libre accessible for those who don’t know anything about it (like myself), and the fight sequences are quite thrilling. One scene in particular, where Cassandro fights a famous luchador El Hijo del Santo (who plays himself) is absolutely gorgeous, and almost balletic in the way it is filmed and presented. The film excels in portraying Cassandro as an important athlete, but also in portraying Armendáriz as a person outside of the ring. Cassandro is played by none other than the great Gael García Bernal, who always brings a magnetic charm and great sensitivity to his roles. He’s particularly subtle here. As wonderful as it is watching him in the Cassandro persona, he’s even more compelling when he’s the shy Saúl, who continues to worry whether he will be fully accepted for his sexuality even as a whole country grows to adore him. It’s a beautiful performance, surrounded by a film that warrants it.

 

12) May December


More than any other movie on this list, May December feels like it really shouldn’t work as well as it does. The elements on their own feel utterly disparate, and yet director Todd Haynes puts them together so masterfully that each odd little part comes together to create a truly riveting piece of cinema. The film follows Elizabeth Berry (Natalie Portman), a renowned actress who will be playing Gracie Atherton-Yoo (Julianne Moore) in an upcoming movie, and goes to meet Gracie and observe her life in preparation for the role. Gracie was the subject of controversy two decades earlier after she had an affair with a teenager named Joe (played by Charles Melton as an adult), who was a friend of her son’s. Gracie served time in prison, but then married Joe who she still lives with and has three children with. The moral implications of Gracie and Joe’s relationship provides enough drama for any film, and I’m happy to say that the film approaches the nature of that relationship and its genesis with an appropriate level of respect and understanding. To add in the character of Elizabeth feels like it should be an unnecessary angle for what the film is exploring. But nothing in this film is unintentional. This is a film about people who, for various reasons, are not able to be themselves—and the trio of actors who portray them deserve all of the accolades they’re receiving. Everything about Gracie’s life feels artificial—from the way she behaves, and the way others behave around her. She as a character is putting on a performance, and it’s unclear throughout the film whether this is done for power, for survival, or both. Julianne Moore gives Gracie an infantile way of speaking that can be creepy, but is undeniably effective. While she doesn’t try and make us forgive the character’s actions and decisions, she still manages to imbue Gracie with a very human fragility. It’s always interesting to see a movie star poking fun at the idea of being a movie star, and Natalie Portman does a really great job of it here. Portman is starring in a film about a tabloid story (while the characters in May December are fictional, there is clear inspiration taken from the real life case of Mary Kay Letourneau and Vili Fualaau), but her character exists to examine the ethical situation of portraying such a story to a mass audience. The increasing invasiveness of Elizabeth is fascinating and messy, and genuinely uncomfortable. In a parallel to Gracie, it becomes clear that Elizabeth is just as empty as a person—only able to function in a role as someone else, and her self-stated fascination with “morally ambiguous” characters speaks to her own disregard for ethics in her personal life. Portman has proven time and time again that she’s a strong actor, but this performance genuinely surprised me with just how good she was, and while she’s been getting great notice it still doesn’t feel like enough. It’s rare that a famous actor becomes unrecognizable in a role, but it’s even rarer that they do so playing a role so close to their own public image. But as good as Portman is, Charles Melton is clearly the heart of the film. As emotionally immature as all of these characters are, Joe is the only one who feels stunted by circumstance rather than personality. The film begins melodramatically (out of Cannes, May December was already being given the affectionate label of “camp”), thanks in part to a sweepingly cheesy score by Marcelo Zarvos. But the film loses its melodrama, and the prominent score becomes less and less present, as the film goes on. Haynes peels away the exploitative tabloid veneer to find the very real stakes at the film’s center, and the contrast helps the film’s message read even more strongly and genuinely. And this would not work without Melton, who nails it as a victim grappling with the weight of what they’ve lost for the very first time. This is a powerful film, and a complicated story told expertly.

 

11) Viking


One of the biggest surprises of the year for me was Viking, a French-Canadian film about a team of astronauts on a mission to mars…kind of. The premise of the film is that the first crewed mission to Mars has just begun. But while every precaution has been taken to ensure a successful mission, the team on the ground is worried about the one thing they can’t control: the interpersonal problems that might arise between the members of the team. To account for this, they assemble a “B Team” of people whose personalities exactly match the team of astronauts, who will remain on Earth, but act out the daily events of the Mars mission. The idea is this team can be more easily observed, and perhaps what is learned from their actions can help inform decisions made aboard the actual spaceship itself. It’s a silly premise, and the film eagerly embraces the strangeness of it all, mining the premise for comedy at every turn. As the film goes on, however, it becomes increasingly and unexpectedly poignant. The central thesis of Viking is that humans are not machines, and no amount of exactitude in comparing peoples’ personalities will ever make them predictable. As things begin to go awry in both the mission on Mars and the mission on Earth, Viking really comes into its own. The oddness leads to great sincerity, and it finds beauty in the unlikely situation of its own creation. I began charmed by Viking, and ultimately was taken aback by just how much it made me think and feel. It’s like The Office meets Moon meets Yorgos Lanthimos—a strange cocktail of a film that creates one of the most original and underrated films of the year.

 

 

But that's not all! Read about my Top 10 Films of the year with Part 2!

Saturday, January 13, 2024

Who Will be Nominated for the 96th Academy Awards?


Another year, another Oscars season. Which means I emerge from my hidey-hole and have another round of Oscar nominations predictions for you!!! It’s a fairly predictable year, with five films in particular being in the running for seemingly every award, and what looks like it might be the least surprising Best Picture lineup in years. But how did I come to that conclusion? And how too can you gain this sense of certainty? Read my predictions in every single category for a sense of where this year’s Oscars race stands. And then join me on January 23rd to see how I did!

As always, this list is what I think will be nominated, not what I want to be nominated. While I sometimes can't help myself and my personal opinions creep into my analysis, my choices should not be seen as an endorsement of any film. If you're curious in my more subjective thoughts, you'll have to wait for my picks of The Best Films of the Year (coming soon!) Now, without further ado, here are my predictions for the nominations for the 96th Academy Awards, from Best Picture to Best Live Action Short.

BEST PICTURE:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Oppenheimer

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Poor Things

Maestro

American Fiction

The Holdovers

Anatomy of a Fall

Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

 

CONTENDERS:

The Color Purple

May December

All of Us Strangers

 

WILD CARDS:

Society of the Snow

Ferrari

 

The Best Picture race is always contentious, and yet this year it feels like the race has whittled down to a far more predictable group than it normally is at this time. We have five heavyweights here: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things are not just clear nominees in this category, but they should be expected to make great showings pretty much across the board—from the acting categories to the technical ones. For the remaining five spots, we need to look to films made on significantly smaller budgets, as well as international films. In the world of independent film, there have been a few titles floating around this awards season which at various times have felt like they’ve had the buzz to earn a Best Picture nomination: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, The Holdovers, May December, and Past Lives. Of these, American Fiction has always been the leader of the pack—its coveted win for the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival signaled its Oscars potential, and it has performed consistently well all season long. All Of Us Strangers, which received a late release in the United States, was banking on a late surge of momentum that, sadly, just never really happened. While its decent showing on the BAFTA longlists keeps it somewhat in the conversation, the lack of attention from the SAG Awards finalized its seeming inability to gain traction with American film awards. Early on in the awards season, May December seemed to be a shoo-in, raking in lots of accolades from various Critics’ Choice awards. But it underperformed with the BAFTAs and was completely absent at the SAG Awards— with the strong cast at the center of the film rapidly losing Oscar momentum, it feels like the film’s chances at Best Picture get worse every day. It’s the reverse story for The Holdovers. Alexander Payne’s latest got a positive but somewhat muted reception upon its release—perhaps because it was released alongside some buzzier titles. But as the season has gone along, the case for The Holdovers has gotten stronger and stronger, and Alexander Payne’s surprise nomination at the DGA Awards was the final sign that this film is a sure bet for a Best Picture nomination. The last title is Past Lives—Celine Song’s debut feature had the earliest calendar release out of any Best Picture nominee this year. At the time, I worried it was not a flashy enough film to have the staying power to make it all the way to the Best Picture lineup. But, while the film’s awards season showing has been a bit inconsistent, it’s still definitely in the conversation. Its strong potential for a screenplay nomination, and Celine Song’s recognition at the DGAs means I’m willing to bet this quiet but beloved film will be in the running.

 

When talking Best Picture, you also need to consider international films. Films not primarily in English used to have a difficult path to a Best Picture nomination, but partocularly after Parasite’s groundbreaking win, that stigma seems to have gone away recently, and it’s almost as if there’s a designated “International” spot reserved amongst the Best Picture nominees. This year, the two contenders are Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, which both were big winners out of the Cannes Film Festival. There’s a strong chance that both of these films make it into the lineup, but if only one does, the frontrunner is undoubtedly Anatomy of a Fall. Justine Triet’s legal thriller had a bit of a hiccup when France did not select it as its submission for the Best International Film category (possibly because a good portion of the film is still in English and they feared disqualification), but the awards campaign has not slowed down, and it would be a bit of a shock if it didn’t make it in. The Zone of Interest also has major potential here—Jonathan Glazer’s unconventional and unsettling Holocaust drama is on most prognosticators’ lists. In fact, on top of Best Picture, it’s an outside contender in several awards, and might serve as a dark horse contender in multiple categories (as I will discuss further in this article). The odds are in favor that both films will be Best Picture nominees.

 

But there’s one film waiting in the wings to take one of these spots away from the presumptive nominees, and that’s The Color Purple. The movie musical is one of the biggest enigmas of the year. While it’s a shoo-in for supporting actress for Danielle Brooks, the rest of its Oscars chances are up in the air. It’s a film that could score one nomination, or could pull in a substantial nomination haul. We’re going to have to wait and see, but I think this crowdpleaser is exactly the sort of fare the Academy is going to respond to, and am only reluctantly leaving it out of the lineup. I truly won’t be shocked if it manages to snag one of the nominations, with The Zone of Interest and Past Lives being the most vulnerable to exclusion.

 

Any lineup of ten films that doesn’t come from the 11 films I’ve singled out would be a major shock, but just for fun, I’ve picked out two films with potential to be major shockers. Ferrari was at one point on everybody’s radar, but it since has faded mostly out of the conversation. But while the Academy’s voting body has become increasingly diverse, it’s still mostly made up of old white men, and if they respond to this movie enough, it might have more support than initially realized. Lastly, I’ve been intrigued by the Oscar campaign for Society of the Snow. Spain’s submission in the International Film category has been getting a strong campaign from Netflix for the technical categories. I think due to the buzz surrounding Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, this film was never initially seen as a part of the Best Picture conversation. But when you look at it on paper, it actually shares a lot with last year’s multi-Oscar winning film All Quiet on the Western Front. It’s an impressive film on a technical level, and the true survival story at its center is incredibly compelling. If voters are paying attention to it for its technical achievements, there’s a chance that enough voters will throw a vote its way to unexpectedly get it into the main competition. It’s an incredibly slim chance, small enough that I hesitated to even mention it, but it’s nonetheless an interesting one to consider. Perhaps with a more ambitious awards campaign, the buzz surrounding Society of the Snow would be different.

 

BEST DIRECTOR:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Christopher Nolan—Oppenheimer

Greta Gerwig—Barbie

Martin Scorsese—Killers of the Flower Moon

Yorgos Lanthimos—Poor Things

Jonathan Glazer—The Zone of Interest

 

CONTENDERS:

Bradley Cooper—Maestro

Justine Triet—Anatomy of a Fall

Celine Song—Past Lives

Alexander Payne—The Holdovers

Cord Jefferson—American Fiction

 

For most of the awards season, five names have been at the top of the list of Best Director contenders: Bradley Cooper, Greta Gerwig, Yorgos Lanthimos, Christopher Nolan, and Martin Scorsese. Their respective films are all seen as the top five most certain Best Picture nominees, and all of their films distinctly show off the directors’ specific style. All of them have considerable love from the industry, and all except Cooper are previous nominees (with Scorsese being the only previous winner). For a long time, I thought of Cooper as perhaps being the biggest lock of the night. The fact that he not only directs but also stars in Maestro means that he’s incredibly visible on the awards campaign, and the fact that he was notoriously “snubbed” in this category for A Star is Born a few years ago means that, despite this only being his sophomore feature film, there are people in the Academy who will see him as being “overdue.” However, he’s the only one of these five who failed to pick a Director’s Guild nomination, which is a pretty big hit for Cooper. This doesn’t mean Cooper should be counted out by any means—the DGAs actually very rarely match up perfectly with the Oscars lineup (the last time they did was 2009)—but it does imply that he’s potentially the most vulnerable of this lineup. And while I feel like the aforementioned lineup of five is certainly a strong possibility, I do see the Academy diverging slightly, and the DGAs have signaled that Cooper is at the bottom of the pecking order. If those 5 are not the nominees, I really can only seeing Cooper or maybe Lanthimos being left out.

 

So, who would take Cooper’s spot? Well, Alexander Payne was the one who grabbed the 5th spot at the DGAs, and The Holdovers has been picking up momentum as the season has gone along. I think there’s also a chance for Celine Song to make it in if Past Lives has even more industry support than previously thought—she and American Fiction’s Cord Jefferson were both highlighted at the DGAs for Best First-Time Feature Film. But I think for the 5th spot we need to look abroad. As the Oscars have become more international with their voting base, this is the category where that shift has arguably shown the most. In the last 5 years, at least one nominee has been for a film that isn’t in English—even when their respective film isn’t nominated for Best Picture—and I don’t see any reason to think that trend will change this year. This instantly spotlights the directors of the two most buzzed-about international films of the year: Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall and Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest. Both films are within the Best Picture conversation, and I think most prognosticators are not giving enough thought to these films as Best Director contenders. A case could be made for either Triet or Glazer, and while I feel like Anatomy of a Fall in general has higher Best Picture chances, I’m finding myself unexpectedly leaning towards Glazer. Triet’s direction is masterful, but fans of the film will also highlight Sandra Hüller’s performance or the screenplay when speaking the film’s praises. Glazer’s direction is first and foremost what has garnered The Zone of Interest its acclaim, and I’m going out on a limb to guess this will be recognized with the nominations.

 

BEST ACTRESS:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Lily Gladstone—Killers of the Flower Moon

Emma Stone—Poor Things

Carey Mulligan—Maestro

Margot Robbie—Barbie

Sandra Hüller—Anatomy of a Fall

 

CONTENDERS:

Fantasia Barrino—The Color Purple

Greta Lee—Past Lives

Natalie Portman—May December

Annette Bening—Nyad

 

Four of these nominees might as well be set in stone: if Lily Gladstone, Carey Mulligan, Margot Robbie, and Emma Stone don’t all receive nominations it would be considered a huge shock. The biggest question is really just who will receive the 5th nomination spot. I at one point thought Natalie Portman was a lock for May December, but as the awards season has gone on, the film’s lack of attention from both the BAFTAs and especially the SAG Awards has slowed its momentum significantly. Portman might still be in it, but the door is definitely open for another contender. The enigma of how well-loved Past Lives is within the Academy means that Greta Lee can’t be fully counted out, although her awards season report card is not as convincing as I wish it was. Annette Bening’s nomination at the SAG Awards puts her back in the conversation as well, although that SAG nomination is doing some heavy lifting for Bening’s chances after Nyad generally failed to catch on during the awards season. Ultimately, I feel like the two most likely contenders for the 5th nomination are Sandra Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall and Fantasia Barrino for The Color Purple. Hüller’s lack of a nomination at the SAGs isn’t as surprising, considering they are more hesitant to recognize performances not in English, and as I’ve already discussed, the international contingent of the Academy should not be counted out. But an argument definitely can also be made for Barrino. The Color Purple’s late release and lack of festival entries means it’s been a bit of a wildcard this whole awards season, and there’s a good chance it will perform better at the Oscars across the board than most prognosticators are predicting. While Barrino didn’t earn a SAG nomination, the film did earn one for Best Ensemble over contenders like Poor Things, Maestro, and The Holdovers, so Barrino certainly does have support from the actors’ branch of the Academy. I’ve ultimately gone with Hüller, but wouldn’t be wholly surprised by either getting it instead.

 

BEST ACTOR:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Cillian Murphy—Oppenheimer

Bradley Cooper—Maestro

Paul Giamatti—The Holdovers

Jeffrey Wright—American Fiction

Leonardo DiCaprio—Killers of the Flower Moon

 

CONTENDER:

Colman Domingo—Rustin

 

UPSETS:

Andrew Scott—All of Us Strangers

Teo Yoo—Past Lives

Anthony Hopkins—Freud’s Last Case

 

The Best Actor category has a real problem this year: there are six potential nominees who all feel like they’re shoo-ins: Bradley Cooper, Leonardo DiCaprio, Colman Domingo, Paul Giamatti, Cillian Murphy, and Jeffrey Wright. If any of these six don’t make it in, it will feel like a snub. The problem is there are only five spots, so it becomes a question of who amongst these awards season heavyweights will be left out. Cooper and Murphy are the clearest nominees, and it feels likely that one of them will be the winner. I was unsure about Giamatti at the start of the awards season, but both he and The Holdovers in general have been gaining momentum as the awards season comes to a close, and given that he’s once again being directed by Alexander Payne, it feels like Oscar voters want to correct his perceived snub for Sideways years ago. I also don’t see Jeffrey Wright not making it. American Fiction is a firm Best Picture nominee thanks to a campaign that puts Wright front and center, and it arguably overperformed better than any other film at the SAG Awards, so we know the acting branch is going to respond well to it. That leaves DiCaprio and Domingo. At the SAG Awards, DiCaprio was the one left out, and I know a lot of prognosticators now feel that the Oscars are going to do the same. After all, Domingo’s performance is the exact sort of biopic performance that the Oscars particularly loves—and Netflix’s campaign has been pushing for him specifically rather than for the film itself. That could help him, but that could also hurt him. Other than Best Song, Rustin simply hasn’t been in conversation for other categories, while Killers of the Flower Moon is a main contender. I feel like the SAG Awards were a fluke. As much as I’m hoping Domingo makes the cut, I don’t see DiCaprio missing out here. Ultimately, it feels like a lottery. With it so close, it feels inevitable that this category will be predictable, yet simultaneously feature one of the biggest snubs of the day.

 

The crowdedness of the category means it’s hard to imagine any spoilers here. But if there were a seventh name in the conversation it would be Andrew Scott in All of Us Strangers. His work has picked up several accolades this season, but the SAG Awards cemented that this film simply hasn’t been able to catch up in the awards season. If the Academy goes all in on Past Lives, there’s a chance that Teo Yoo could sneak in, but this is definitely a longshot, and it would be particularly surprising if Yoo makes it into the race and his co-star Greta Lee doesn’t. Lastly, ever since I saw the trailer for Freud’s Last Case, I’ve been wary about counting out Anthony Hopkins. Some might remember a few years ago when Hopkins, alongside his co-star Jonathan Pryce, got a nomination for The Two Popes seemingly out of nowhere. Hopkins getting a nomination this year would be the exact sort of bizarre choice that happens every so often. Highly unlikely, but still not so impossible that I don’t feel like mentioning it.

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Da’Vine Joy Randolph—The Holdovers

Emily Blunt—Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks—The Color Purple

Jodie Foster—Nyad

Julianne Moore—May December

 

CONTENDERS:

Sandra Hüller —The Zone of Interest

Penélope Cruz—Ferrari

America Ferrera—Barbie

Taraji P. Henson—The Color Purple

 

 

UPSETS:

Cara Jade Myers—Killers of the Flower Moon

Viola Davis—Air

Florence Pugh—Oppenheimer

 

This is easily the most unpredictable of the acting categories this year, as it has the fewest nominations which feel completely set in stone. Da’Vine Joy Randolph has certainly emerged as the frontrunner in this category, and Emily Blunt and Danielle Brooks feel like certainties at this point. But the other two spots are potentially wide open, so, let’s consider some of the options. Jodie Foster and Julianne Moore, who I’ve ultimately picked, were both in films that had other buzzed about performances (Annette Bening for Nyad and Natalie Portman and Charles Melton for May December), but as those categories are more crowded, it feels like these two actors actually have the best chance of earning a nomination for their respective films. They benefit greatly from the open field. Many prognosticators have opted to include Sandra Hüller, who’s doing double duty this awards season, seen as a contender here and in Anatomy of a Fall. Actors have pulled off two nominations in one ceremony before, but usually they have a bit more name recognition than Hüller does, and I see the Academy favoring her in Leading Actress rather than here (although I hope she gets at least one nomination to recognize her outstanding year). Penélope Cruz’s SAG nomination has kept her in the conversation, and conversely Viola Davis’ lack of a SAG nomination for Air has hurt her chances significantly. Taraji P. Henson was viewed as a major contender as soon as The Color Purple was released, but the critical buzz surrounding her performance has failed to materialize as voters have flocked more to Brooks. Still, as I’ve said, The Color Purple just might have more support than expected, and one way that could be demonstrated is if Henson sneaks in here. If she does, and Fantasia Barrino gets in for Best Leading Actress, we might just see The Color Purple popping up in the Best Picture category after all. Lastly, we have America Ferrera, Cara Jade Myers, and Florence Pugh. None of them have gotten much awards attention (although Ferrera has been the most speculated about), but they’re each in some of the most Oscars-favored films of the year. I don’t think it’s likely, but if Academy support for any of these films is truly overwhelming, they could sneak in given the wiggle room present in this category.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Robert Downey Jr.—Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling—Barbie

Robert De Niro—Killers of the Flower Moon

Mark Ruffalo—Poor Things

Sterling K. Brown—American Fiction

 

CONTENDERS:

Charles Melton—May December

Willem Dafoe—Poor Things

 

WILDCARD:

Dominic Sessa—The Holdovers

 

If you had asked me a few weeks ago, I would have said this was the most set in stone out of all of the acting categories, and that the nominees would be Robert Downey Jr., Ryan Gosling, Robert De Niro, Charles Melton, and Mark Ruffalo. That’s still a more than plausible lineup, but the SAG Awards have undeniably shaken things up a little bit. For one thing, SAG opted to nominate Willem Dafoe over Ruffalo out of the Poor Things cast. For me, SAG was a fluke—Ruffalo has been more at the center of the Poor Things awards campaign and has picked up far more accolades than Dafoe all season long, so I still think we’re going to see him in contention. If anything, Dafoe’s nod at the SAGs indicates that we could see him and Ruffalo both score nominations (akin to Jesse Plemons’ somewhat surprising nomination for The Power of the Dog two years ago). But the biggest question of this category is where Charles Melton lies in the race. Right out of Cannes, most of the promotion around May December was focused on his more famous co-stars Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore, but as the film continued on the awards circuit, it was Melton who was being singled out for awards. He went from being someone who could be nominated, to someone who was definitely going to be nominated, to someone who was a contender to actually win the whole thing. I certainly could see Melton ultimately earning a nomination,  however, his chances have fallen considerably for two reasons: the SAG nominations and the BAFTA longlists. These awards are two of the best indicators of Oscar nominations for actors, and Melton’s absence from both lists is glaring. The BAFTA exclusion was surprising, but could have been considered a fluke (especially as the BAFTAs understandably gravitate more towards British performers), but the fact that the SAG Awards also didn’t nominate Melton or anyone from May December for that matter is a real blow. It indicates that neither he nor the film may have the support needed to cross the finish line. Sterling K. Brown, who has been performing consistently well this awards season for American Fiction had been right on the heels of my initial presumptive five nominees, and his SAG nomination over both Melton and Ruffalo is a good boost of momentum for him. Regardless, I think this category will be made up of some combination of the seven actors I mentioned. The only wildcard is Dominic Sessa, the young actor at the center of The Holdovers. I’ve said a few times that that film has a lot of momentum going into the nominations announcement, and as his co-stars cement their places as nominees, love for the film as a whole might just propel the young actor to a nomination alongside them.

 

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

MY PREDICTIONS:

The Holdovers

Past Lives

Anatomy of a Fall

Maestro

May December

 

CONTENDERS:

Asteroid City

Saltburn

 

IN A JUST WORLD:

The Boy and the Heron

 

This year, the Adapted Screenplay category is the most crowded one, allowing Best Original Screenplay to nominate some strong, interesting work and also Maestro. Films like Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Past Lives, and May December are all a part of the Best Picture race, and even if one or two of them fall short of securing a spot in the main race, this category looks to be a good consolation prize. I feel really good about this lineup, although there’s a chance for an upset with Asteroid City and Saltburn, two more divisive films with less Best Picture equity, but which nonetheless have significant fans and come from writers who have been recognized by the Academy for their screenplays before. Although, if I had my druthers, there would be more buzz surrounding The Boy and the Heron in this category. Animated films have been nominated for their screenplays before, but the great Hayao Miyazaki has never been recognized with a nomination outside of Best Animated Feature. The Boy and the Heron is one of his most personal and one of his more high-profile films thus far, and in a category that seems like it has potential for a left-field pick, this screenplay would be a deserving if incredibly surprising choice.

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Barbie

American Fiction

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

 

CONTENDER:

The Zone of Interest

 

WILD CARDS:

The Color Purple

All of Us Strangers

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

 

With Barbie being switched to this category from Original (where it’s been recognized by every other awards body), this becomes arguably the most crowded category of the night. Barbie, Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Poor Things are absolute juggernauts of the season, and it’s hard not to see them being recognized here. Meanwhile, American Fiction might not be looking at the same awards haul as these other films, but the main thing that is garnering that film attention is the screenplay, so it seems like a lock for the final slot. Had Barbie been included in the Original Screenplay category as the filmmakers had requested, that would have left an open slot for under the radar picks like The Color Purple or All of Us Strangers, or even the beloved Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, which would have ordinarily had its best shot for a nomination in this category. If any film does upset one of the frontrunners, it would be The Zone of Interest, which I’ve mentioned I see as a potential upset in several categories. In any other year, I’d see it as a shoo-in for a nomination, but the five nominees seem pretty set in stone to me, and I can’t guess which one would be vulnerable to a spoiler.

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:

MY PREDICTIONS:

The Zone of Interest (UK)

The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)

Society of the Snow (Spain)

The Taste of Things (France)

Four Daughters (Tunisia)

 

CONTENDERS:

Io Capitano (Italy)

Perfect Days (Japan)

Fallen Leaves (Finland)

The Promised Land (Denmark)

Totém (Mexico)

The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)

 

POSSIBILITIES:

Amerikatsi (Armenia)

Godland (Iceland)

20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)

The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)

 

Given the awards season thus far, there are a few particularly buzzy titles in contention: The Zone of Interest, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Taste of Things, Society of the Snow, Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Fallen Leaves, The Promised Land, and Totém all have significant accolades and any combination of these films would make for an unsurprising lineup. Of them, The Zone of Interest is the only real certainty, and will be the likely winner in the category, while I also think The Teachers’ Lounge is fairly set in stone at this point. All other films listed feel like a bit of a toss-up—they’re all highly acclaimed—although I’ve selected as the most likely contenders The Taste of Things on the strength of Juliette Binoche’s name and Society of the Snow for its technical achievements and for Netflix’s strong campaign on its behalf.

 

But if you look at my predictions, you might be thinking to yourself, “Miles, you listed all of these films as having a good chance at a nomination, yet one of your predictions is for Four Daughters which you didn’t name? What’s going on?!” Well, I’m glad you asked. Four years ago, the North Macedonian film Honeyland made history as the first documentary to be recognized in this category. Ever since then, documentaries have done incredibly well, and there’s been a documentary included here for three of the last four years. On the shortlist, we have 3 documentaries included: Four Daughters, 20 Days in Mariupol, and The Mother of All Lies, and I think one will make it into the lineup as a spoiler. Between them, I’m picking Four Daughters as it’s a much more narrative-based film, which tends to do better in this category than more hard-hitting journalism docs like 20 Days in Mariupol. Meanwhile, The Mother of All Lies made this shortlist, but not the Best Documentary shortlist, which definitely puts it as the bottom of the pack in terms of likelihood to receive a nomination. Lastly, none of us should be counting out The Monk and the Gun. This film hasn’t gotten a theatrical release yet, which explains why it’s not on a lot of peoples’ radar, but it might be a major surprise. Director Pawo Choyning Dorji was nominated in this category two years ago for his first film, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (the first film Bhutan ever submitted to the Oscars). It was a crowdpleasing, delightful film, and if his follow-up is of the same Oscar-y quality, then Dorji just might end up going 2 for 2 with the Academy.

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Boy and the Heron

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Elemental

Wish

 

CONTENDERS:

Nimona

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

 

SPOILERS:

Robot Dreams

The Peasants

 

In a category typically dominated by Disney and Pixar, it’s really refreshing to see the frontrunners this year being films from neither of those studios. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, the sequel to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse which won a few years ago is a critically-acclaimed and dynamic film that’s truly groundbreaking and many would consider it to be the perceived frontrunner thus far. But it faces fierce competition from The Boy and the Heron. While Studio Ghibli has only won in this category once (for Spirited Away 20 years ago), the fact that this is likely Hayao Miyazaki’s last film, and the fact that the Oscars will have another chance to reward Across the Spider-Verse once part 2 comes out, means this category is a real toss-up. Regardless, both will definitely receive nominations.

 

While Disney and Pixar might not be winning the top prize this year, they’re still too notable in the industry to ignore, and their offerings of Elemental and Wish are likely to be nominated even with more lukewarm reviews. That leaves exactly one spot. I’ve seen a lot of support from prognosticators for Netflix’s excellent Nimona—especially after its strong showing at the Annie Awards—and I’d be thrilled if it snuck in ahead of one of the more conventional options. The commercial appeal of The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem might earn one of those films a nomination as well. But, to be honest, I feel pretty comfortable picking Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget. Aardman Animations is beloved within the industry, and has consistently done very well with the Academy here. This is one of their most high-profile and most anticipated projects to date, and I feel like a lot of people are severely underestimating how well it will do with the nomination committee. I’ve not seen a lot of prognosticators confident in its chances, but of the more out there picks I’ve made in this list, it’s the one I feel most confident about. Don’t be against Aardman.

 

Lastly, there are two wildcards in the form of The Peasants and Robot Dreams. These international entries are certainly not well-known, but I think there’s at least some potential for support for them. The Peasants looks absolutely gorgeous, and comes from the same team as the Oscar-nominated Loving Vincent from a few years ago. And Robot Dreams, which will be released next year, is supposed to be utterly charming, and one of my most anticipated films of 2024. If it’s as great as people say, and enough true animation lovers throw votes its way, there’s a slim chance it could become the biggest surprise of nomination day.

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY:

MY PREDICTIONS:

American Symphony

Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

Stamped from the Beginning

The Eternal Memory

20 Days in Mariupol

 

CONTENDERS:

Four Daughters

Beyond Utopia

A Still Small Voice

 

POSSIBILITIES:

Bobi Wine: The People’s President

Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project

Apolonia, Apolonia

In the Rearview

To Kill a Tiger

Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy

32 Sounds

 

The Documentary category often features some surprises, but there are definitely some clues to help us figure out which films will make up the nominees. The most prominent contenders from the shortlist are undeniably two documentaries which serve as portraits of public figures: American Symphony, which follows musician Jon Batiste, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie about actor Michael J. Fox. Netflix always has a great showing here, and on top of American Symphony, there’s a good chance they’ll score a nomination for Stamped from the Beginning, inspired by the book of same name by Ibram X. Kendi. For the last two nominees, I’m looking at the international contenders, as documentaries from outside the United States have been doing very well in recent years thanks to the increasingly diverse makeup of the Academy’s nomination branch. Of those contenders, the three most likely picks would be The Eternal Memory, 20 Days in Mariupol, and Four Daughters—the latter two of which are also on the shortlist for Best International Film. Weirdly, while I picked Four Daughters as the more likely nominee in the International Film category, I’m picking 20 Days in Mariupol here; its urgent news footage style of filmmaking definitely has a better shot in this category, whereas the more experimental nature of Four Daughters has traditionally not been as compelling for this category’s voting branch. The Eternal Memory is a touching and quiet film, the likes of which often picks up a nomination here (see last year’s nominee A House Made of Splinters) and should definitely be on any oddsmakers’ radar. While in this unpredictable category, you don’t want to count any film out, there are two other films that I see as a slightly more likely contenders than the rest: A Still Small Voice and Beyond Utopia. Despite both films featuring charitable Christian figures at their center, they couldn’t be more different. A Still Small Voice is more quiet and contemplative, while Beyond Utopia has great political relevancy and the pacing of a thriller. Both have picked up several strong accolades throughout the year, and could be definite contenders.

 

BEST FILM EDITING:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Oppenheimer

Killers of the Flower Moon

Barbie

Poor Things

Maestro

 

CONTENDERS:

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

The Color Purple

Ferrari

Society of the Snow

 

Film Editing is always one of those categories that Oscars prognosticators hold with great regard, as more than any other category, it tends to overlap with Best Picture. It’s incredibly difficult to win Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination, and so any Best Picture contender automatically enters the running here. That means that the five biggest names in the Best Picture race are easy picks for the nominees here as, especially as each one already is a bigger budget project that tends to do well in this category. If films like American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, or The Zone of Interest can score nominations here, it will signal that they have significant Academy support, and should be ones to watch out for as possible dark horse picks for Best Picture. Nominees in this category who aren’t Best Picture contenders tend to be action films or musicals, which means The Color Purple, Ferrari, and Society of the Snow definitely have a shot at making it here, even if their chances in other categories feel less certain.

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Oppenheimer

Maestro

Poor Things

Killers of the Flower Moon

The Zone of Interest

 

CONTENDERS:

Barbie

El Conde

Saltburn

Past Lives

The Color Purple

 

It’s been a big year for films that switch between black and white film to color film. Oppenheimer, Maestro, and Poor Things all included this particular trick, and they just happen to be the three frontrunners in this category this year. Additionally, three-time nominee Rodrigo Prieto is likely to be a nominee again this year…the question is how many times?! He was the cinematographer for two of the biggest films of the year: Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon. Him scoring two nominations is definitely not out of the question, but if he were to only get one, Killers of the Flower Moon is more likely. I personally think that Barbie is the more visibly striking movie between the two, but the cinematography is possibly overshadowed by the production design, and it failed to score a nomination at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards, which shows it might be vulnerable here., so there’s definitely room for an upset! The Academy is a sucker for black and white filmography, and might look at the beautifully shot Chilean vampire film El Conde (which did receive an ASC nomination ahead of Barbie). Saltburn has garnered quite a bit of audience buzz that hasn’t really translated to Oscar buzz, but if it gets an Oscar nomination, this is the category it would be for. The Color Purple is a high-spectacle musical and, as I’ve said several times in these predictions, has the potential to surprise everyone with its nominations haul. If it does, it could easily land here. Past Lives is a much smaller film than normally gets recognized here, but the cinematography is gorgeous and intimate. It could be a spoiler here if the Academy rallies behind it, especially as this is the only one of the technical categories that it has any chance in. But I’m going for an out of left field pick with The Zone of Interest; Polish cinematographer Łukasz Żal is a two-time nominee, and that automatically makes it a contender here. It’s already going to be on Oscars’ voters radar, and I’m surprised it hasn’t been more of a part of the conversation, given the striking and distinct look of the film. It might not be a smart pick, and I wouldn’t put money on it, but I’m standing by it.

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Barbie

Poor Things

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Asteroid City

 

CONTENDERS:

Oppenheimer

The Color Purple

The Zone of Interest

Saltburn

Napoleon

 

As will become increasingly apparent as we go through this list, I’m pretty much looking at Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things as contenders in every single technical category—that’s what happens when your most prominent Best Picture contenders all have big budgets—and that could very well be the lineup here. After all, this category typically gravitates towards period films and fantasy films, and that’s exactly where these five films lie. But there are certainly some options for spoilers. Despite his well-known and well-loved aesthetic, Wes Anderson’s films have actually not had a great track record in this category, but the distinct look of Asteroid City shouldn’t be ignored, and this category is this film’s best chance at a nomination. I think it might just edge out Oppenheimer, whose awards campaign is far more concentrated on other categories. We could also see some films with Best Picture nominee potential like The Color Purple and The Zone of Interest make it in, with wildcard contenders Saltburn and Napoleon perhaps being upsets.

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Poor Things

Oppenheimer

Maestro

 

CONTENDERS:

Ferrari

The Little Mermaid

The Color Purple

Wonka

Napoleon

 

Once again, I’ve ended up singling out Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. This year’s Oscars juggernauts share many traits, and among them is their strong costume design. This category almost always goes to a period piece, and Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things are not only period pieces, but ones with recognizable designers, most whom have been nominated before. The exception here is Barbie, but the costume design is SO apparent and so strong that I think it might be the rare non-period film to score a win in this category, even from the stuffy Academy. If you’re looking for spoilers to make it into the category, I’d look at Ferrari and The Little Mermaid. These films feature designs by Massimo Cantini Parrini and Colleen Atwood respectively, who are two Academy darlings. Similarly, don’t count out Napoleon or Wonka, both of which have designs from previous winners in this category, or The Color Purple, which is a more high profile entry whose Academy support is still to be determined.

 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Maestro

Poor Things

Oppenheimer

Ferrari

Society of the Snow

 

CONTENDERS:

Golda

Beau Is Afraid

Napoleon

The Last Voyage of the Demeter

Killers of the Flower Moon

 

The rest of the categories in this list have all helped me out considerably because they have shortlists! We know that the nominees will be picked from amongst these ten films. And I must say, while this category is mostly underwhelming for me, I’m incredibly happy that this year’s lineup doesn’t feature a prominent fat suit!!! Perhaps The Whale winning last year finally broke the curse as the Academy realized that they could not reward a fat suit any more than that. Despite the merciful lack of fat suits, we still can expect this category to be heavy on prosthetics, and makeups that turn actors into recognizable historical figures, which puts Maestro and Oppenheimer towards the top of the charts, with Maestro in particular having heavily centered the makeup work in its campaign. This physical transformation trend also makes a good case for films like Golda, Ferrari, and Napoleon, and I’m leaning towards Ferrari as it’s the only film with real buzz in other categories, although the transformation of Helen Mirren into Golda Meir in Golda is arguably the most clear transformation out of these three films. Outside of “realistic” makeups, I think Poor Things is a no-brainer here, if only for the incredible work done on Willem Dafoe for the film. And lastly, I’ve picked Society of the Snow; the makeup work done is perhaps more subtle than what tends to be rewarded, but Netflix has been heavily championing this film for the technical awards and the work is impressive enough that it at least deserves consideration.

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

MY PREDICTIONS:

The Creator

Poor Things

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Society of the Snow

Godzilla Minus One

 

CONTENDERS:

Napoleon

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One

Rebel Moon—Part One: A Child of Fire

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

 

With Oppenheimer surprisingly not making the shortlist, a new frontrunner in the category has emerged with The Creator, a film with some great visual effects and not much else to offer. I think that the Academy’s general love for Poor Things will push it into contention (plus, listen, those animal hybrids and Willem Dafoe’s burp bubbles were great). As mentioned before, Netflix is campaigning hard for Society of the Snow, and the realistic plane crash sequence at the center of its campaign is certainly well done. For the franchise films, I’m looking at precedent. The MCU has been nominated here before, but the Mission: Impossible films and recent Indiana Jones films haven’t been, so I think of those entries Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 certainly has the best shot. I’d love to see some recognition for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and I could definitely see it making its way in, but it’s an uphill battle for animation in this category (it would be only the third animated film to be nominated here), so I think it will struggle. The critical distaste of Rebel Moon (and, for that matter, Napoleon) hurt its chances—meanwhile, Godzilla Minus One has been a surprise hit with critics and audiences alike, and voters know this is the best chance of recognizing it at the Oscars. Look for it to nab the final spot.

 

BEST SOUND:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Oppenheimer

Maestro

Barbie

Ferrari

The Killer

 

CONTENDERS:

The Zone of Interest

The Creator

Napoleon

Killers of the Flower Moon

Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One

 

The two frontrunners here feel pretty obvious to me: Oppenheimer and Maestro. It’s Oppenheimer’s to lose, despite Christopher Nolan’s continued insistence on disregarding every conventional thought about sound mixing a film properly. But don’t count out Maestro—often, a film simply being about music is enough for voters to be intrigued by it in this category, and that will work to its advantage here. I think Barbie should make it—its use of sound is not as IN YOUR FACE if you’re not paying attention, but it’s very well done, and the love for the film as a whole will help it out here. The other spots I’m less confident about. I feel like Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, and Mission Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One have the biggest hurdle to make it in, which leaves four films competing for two spots. The Creator could do well, but I don’t feel confident about its chances anywhere outside of Visual Effects. I’d love to see The Zone of Interest make it in—the sound mixing is truly artistic and quite unconventional, but perhaps too unconventional for the Academy to really pick up on. This leaves Ferrari and The Killer, where the racing sequences and shoot-em-up sequences are in line with the sort of films often given nominations by the Oscars.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Oppenheimer

Killers of the Flower Moon

American Fiction

The Boy and the Heron

Poor Things

 

CONTENDERS:

Barbie

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

 

POSSIBILITIES:

The Holdovers

The Color Purple

Society of the Snow

Saltburn

Elemental

American Symphony

The Zone of Interest

 

Best Original Score is a particularly competitive category this year, with several notable scores all vying for contention. So, to make my picks, I looked at the category’s history and found the three things that can most consistently earn a film an Oscar nomination for Best Original Score:

 

1) Be a Best Picture nominee

2) Be an animated film

3) Have a score composed by John Williams

 

John Williams did in fact make the shortlist with his score for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, but I do think on this occasion, the field is simply too crowded for him to make it in. That’s because there are five guaranteed Best Picture nominees which all have notable scores: American Fiction, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. All five of these films have a great shot at a nomination, but with such a crowded field, we have to figure out which ones are the main contenders. The two locks have to be Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon. Since winning this award two years ago, Ludwig Göransson is officially an Oscar darling, and the omnipresent strings in Oppenheimer might earn him his second win. Killers of the Flower Moon is a contender for more sentimental reasons—it’s the last film score from Robbie Robertson, a longtime collaborator of Scorsese’s who has inexplicably never been recognized by the Academy. Scorsese himself has been campaigning strongly on Robertson’s behalf. On merit alone, there’s been a lot of love for Laura Karpman’s jazzy score for American Fiction, and I feel like the voters who love the film but can’t recognize it in other technical categories will rally behind it here. A lot of prognosticators are unsure about the score for Poor Things—it’s definitely odd and unconventional, but I would say that also makes it distinctive, and if the Academy accepts this film as a whole I feel like they have to recognize what a strong companion piece this score truly is. So, it’s a bit of a wild guess, but I see Poor Things making the cut. That, perhaps surprisingly, makes Barbie the odd one out in this particular category. I’d say most people who follow the Oscars will disagree with this choice, and I certainly do think Barbie has a good shot here, but compared to these other four picks, I feel like Barbie’s Original Score is overshadowed by the Original Songs (see next category!!!) and this is one of the few categories which I’m hesitant to predict a Barbie nomination. I might be wrong about this, but if I’m right, I’ll be incredibly proud.

 

So, if not Barbie, who’s getting the 5th nomination? Well, as I said, let’s take a look at the animated films! Three animated films made the shortlist: Elemental, The Boy and the Heron, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. While Pixar films have been nominated here before, I don’t think there’s enough support for Elemental as a whole to earn it a nomination. But I could absolutely see either The Boy and the Heron or Across the Spider-Verse making it in…and maybe even both! Both are films with a good amount of support, and both frankly have incredible scores. I’ve seen a lot of prognosticators going with Across the Spider-Verse, and I can understand why. The score is INCREDIBLE! I was rooting for Into the Spider-Verse to get a nomination in this category when it was released, and am thrilled that its sequel is at least in the conversation this time around. This is a score that is exciting and propulsive, just like the film itself. A nomination for it here would be fantastic, and is certainly not out of the question. But my money is ultimately going on The Boy and the Heron. The Boy and the Heron’s score comes from the great Joe Hisaishi, who has never been nominated before. While Hisaishi is prolific, he’s arguably best known for his collaborations with Hayao Miyazaki, and The Boy and the Heron is likely their last collaboration. Now that he’s actually on the shortlist, perhaps the nominating committee will pay attention to his work and, if they do, this score is right in line with the sort of lyrical and rousing work they usually respond to. Plus, while the Golden Globes are a notoriously inconsistent Oscars predictor, the fact that they recognized The Boy and the Heron in this category at least puts its Score on the Academy’s radar. It has as good a shot as any film to sneak in as an upset.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

MY PREDICTIONS:

“What Was I Made For?”—Barbie

“I’m Just Ken”—Barbie

“The Fire Inside”—Flamin’ Hot

“Superpower (I)”—The Color Purple

“It Never Went Away”—American Symphony

 

CONTENDERS:

“Road to Freedom”—Rustin

“Dance the Night”—Barbie

“Keep It Movin”—The Color Purple

“Meet In the Middle”—Flora and Son

 

DARK HORSES:

“Quiet Eyes”—Past Lives

“Am I Dreaming”—Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

“High Life”—Flora and Son

 

NOT LIKELY, BUT POSSIBLE:

“Can’t Catch Me Now”—The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes

“Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)”—Asteroid City

“Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)”—Killers of the Flower Moon

 

The first question to ask when looking at this category is, “Which two songs from Barbie are going to make the cut?” Several years ago, the Academy changed the rules for this category so that, while multiple songs from a film could be submitted and even make the shortlist, no more than two songs from one movie could be nominated. This was instituted to minimize one movie from utterly dominating the category entirely. It also has caused certain films to adopt a strategy of only submitting one song to the Oscars so that their entries don’t steal votes from each other (this is infamously why “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” from Encanto wasn’t nominated…because Disney didn’t even submit it as they didn’t know it would be a breakout hit!) It feels likely that two of Barbie’s three shortlisted songs will make it. “What Was I Made For?” is far and away the frontrunner in the category, and will definitely be nominated. Between the other two, it’s really up in the air, but while “Dance the Night” shouldn’t be counted out, my instinct tells me “I’m Just Ken” will grab the second spot. It’s THE breakout song, and the accompanying dance sequence is a standout part of the film. The Kenergy is just too overpowering for it not to be placed high on voters’ ballots.

 

Outside of Barbie, you should always bet on songwriter Dianne Warren—she has received a nomination in 8 of the last 9 years, after all. But the Academy’s insistence on nominating her year after year might be tested when they learn her only shortlisted song this year is for a movie about the invention of Flamin’ Hot Cheetos. Still, the last four years I’d never even heard of the movies her nominated songs were from, so let’s hear it for future Oscar nominee Flamin’ Hot!!!

 

The Color Purple and Flora and Son are two musicals, and the only films other than Barbie to have more than one nominee on the shortlist. I could actually see “Meet Me In the Middle” making it if voters are paying attention to Flora and Son—it’s a sweet song, but is particularly lovely in the context of the film as a whole. But in general, it’s undeniable that The Color Purple is the film more on the Academy’s radar. If you’re a musical nominated for Best Picture and original songs have been written specifically for the movie, you know they’re at least going to be a part of the conversation. “Keep It Movin” is my personal favorite between the two songs thanks to its jauntier beat, but the Oscars absolutely love a power ballad, and “Superpower (I)” has the benefit of being sung by the film’s star Fantasia Barrino, so I’ve ended up choosing it after much deliberation.

 

For the final spot, I’ve seen a lot of prognosticators opting for “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony and “Road to Freedom” from Rustin; both have starpower behind them, being written and sung by Jon Batiste and Lenny Kravitz respectively. Both are also Netflix films, and are being campaigned for heavily. I wouldn’t be surprised by either (or even both) making the list, but between the two, I just feel like the fact that American Symphony is ABOUT Jon Batiste puts its song over the edge here, giving “It Never Went Away” the last spot in what might have been the hardest category for me to finalize my predictions. And that doesn’t even leave room for entries like “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives or “Am I Dreaming” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, both of which are dark horse contenders whose nominations will hinge on Academy support for the films overall.

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Nai Nai & Wài Pó

Last Song from Kabul

Camp Courage

If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis

How We Get Free

 

CONTENDERS:

Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games

The Last Repair Shop

The Barber of Little Rock

Between Earth & Sky

Island in Between

Wings of Dust

Oasis

Deciding Vote

The ABCs of Book Banning

Bear

 

Of all of the categories, this is the one I have the least amount of information to go on. But in researching the shorts, and getting to watch some of them, I’m going by instinct! While most documentary shorts tend to be serious in terms of topic, the winners in this category are often more lighthearted or quirky in terms of tone. Think of 2019 winner Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl), which examines the volatility of living in a war-torn country, but through the lens of a school that teaches girls how to skateboard. I picked that film as the winner in the category before I’d even seen it—the title alone tells you it’s one the Academy is going to pay attention to. This year, the two films giving me that same vibe are Nai Nai & Wài Pó and Last Song from Kabul, both of which are available to watch and are well worth watching. Camp Courage also could fit into this category, and has the extra benefit of being distributed by Netflix, which has had a consistently strong showing in this category for the past few years. I feel like this sort of vibe would also benefit films like The Last Repair Shop (which comes from Kris Bowers and Ben Proudfoot, two previous nominees in this category) and Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games. But over them, I’ve picked two films that are undeniably heavier in tone. If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis and How We Get Free have the feel of hard-hitting journalism, and I feel like their subject matter will make Academy voters take notice. If Dreams Were Lightning comes from Ramin Bahrani, a previous Oscar-nominee for Best Adapted Screenplay, whose background in non-documentaries makes the storytelling particularly dramatic while still being accessible. How We Get Free, meanwhile, is getting a healthy awards campaign from distributor HBO. Again, this category is a toss-up, but I’m hoping my instincts can guide me to making some informed guesses in this category. With the short films, I tend to either do really well or really poorly, so we’ll just have to wait and see!

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT:

MY PREDICTIONS:

Once upon a Studio

Letter to a Pig

Wild Summon

War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Humo (Smoke)

 

CONTENDERS:

I’m Hip

Pete

27

A Kind of Testament

Our Uniform

 

POSSIBILITIES:

Pachyderme

Ninety-Five Senses

Eeva

Boom

Koerkorter (Dog Apartment)

 

The most high-profile film on the shortlist is undoubtedly Once upon a Studio, a film made by Disney to celebrate its 100th anniversary. The film features characters from every single animated production in the company’s history as they come to life within the abandoned studio. As a commercial for Disney, it’s nostalgic and sweet and lovely. As an Oscar contender, it’s utterly laughable. But as much as I love the short film categories, they’ve had their fair share of stinkers over the years, and I have to admit that this is probably going to be one of them. Expect it to be nominated. And expect it to be the frontrunner. And expect me to be mad about it.

 

It’s not the only animated film with some name recognition, though. Three prominent Pixar and Disney animators have made their own short films, and while they don’t have studio involvement, this does give them a higher profile. Those projects are I’m Hip, Pete, and War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko. All three are certainly contenders, although perhaps because of Once Upon a Studio’s prominence here getting me upset, I’m irrationally choosing to believe that such name recognition won’t come into play. Looking at the films, Letter to a Pig and Wild Summon seem to be the most decorated as far as festival wins are concerned, and both feature stunning and genuinely interesting animation, which I think will carry them to a nomination. My wildcard pick is Humo (Smoke), a Mexican short film which I haven’t seen, but looks incredible and has been championed by none other than Guillermo del Toro. Other films with significant support are 27, which won the top prize at the prestigious Annecy Awards for animation and A Kind of Testament, which has quite a few awards to its name and seems to cover darker material than some of the other nominees. Lastly, from its trailer alone, I was intrigued by the Iranian short film Our Uniform, which appears to be drawn mostly on fabric. So those are my current standouts, but given the unpredictability of the short films, you can’t count any of the films out of the running entirely.

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:

MY PREDICTIONS:

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Knight of Fortune

Strange Way of Life

Good Boy

An Avocado Pit

 

CONTENDERS:

The After

Red, White and Blue

The Shepherd

The One Note Man

 

POSSIBILITIES:

The Anne Frank Gift Shop

Bienvenidos a Los Angeles

Dead Cat

Invincible

Invisible Border

Yellow

 

For our final category, we go to Live Action Short Film, traditionally one of the least talked about categories of the Oscars ceremony. But this year, it is genuinely one of the most fascinating categories and I’M ABOUT TO TELL YOU WHY! See, typically, the short film categories serve as a showcase for lesser-known filmmakers. Short films are easier to get funding for than features, and up-and-coming filmmakers can make them to get attention in the industry for future projects. Several prominent directors got the first Oscar nominations in this category, which is why it’s an exciting one to pay attention to. But just because short films are usually made by lesser-known directors, there’s no rule that more established filmmakers can’t be in competition in this category. And this year features not one but two shortlisted films from rather prominent directors: Wes Anderson’s The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar and Pedro Almodovar’s Strange Way of Life. Both of these projects also feature some famous actors, and when you go through the casts of the shortlisted films, they’re not the only ones. Good Boy stars Ben Whishaw, The After stars David Oyelowo, Red White and Blue stars Brittany Snow, The One Note Man stars Jason Watkins (of The Crown), and The Shepherd features a bizarre cameo from producer John Travolta. In a category like this one which is so hard to predict, star power like this is usually a good indication that a film will receive a nomination. I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of these films make the final list of nominations based solely on the names attached.

 

However, and this is where it gets tricky, this might be a case of TOO MUCH star power. Having a celebrity in the cast has never been a guarantee of victory here, and there’s sentiment amongst the voting bloc for this category that more established entities in the industry should, essentially, stay in their lane. That a nomination here would be taking away recognition from a film that otherwise would have gotten in on merit alone. The nominations here will be an interesting benchmark for where this category stands, and should reveal whether the category is getting more commercial, or whether it will reject the mainstream. With my predictions, I’m pessimistically leaning towards the sway of star power, and am placing The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Strange Way of Life, and Good Boy all within the realm of top contenders. But I’m also hedging my bets a bit. The sleeper here is Knight of Fortune, which comes from Kim Magnusson. While not a household name, he is a titan in this particular category—the rare film director who has been content to stay in the world of shorts. And he’s been rewarded by the Academy, with 2 wins here out of 7 nominations so far. I also am predicting An Avocado Pit, a Portuguese film which is the sort of fare the Academy usually recognizes in a less star-studded year, and which I think voters will respond to. Plus, while the cast and directors are up-and-coming talent, it isn’t without its celebrity champions, as one of the producers is Elliot Page.