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Another year, another Oscars season. Which means I emerge from my hidey-hole and have another round of Oscar nominations predictions for you!!! It’s a fairly predictable year, with five films in particular being in the running for seemingly every award, and what looks like it might be the least surprising Best Picture lineup in years. But how did I come to that conclusion? And how too can you gain this sense of certainty? Read my predictions in every single category for a sense of where this year’s Oscars race stands. And then join me on January 23rd to see how I did!
As always, this list is what I think will be nominated, not what I want to be nominated. While I sometimes can't help myself and my personal opinions creep into my analysis, my choices should not be seen as an endorsement of any film. If you're curious in my more subjective thoughts, you'll have to wait for my picks of The Best Films of the Year (coming soon!) Now, without further ado, here are my predictions for the nominations for the 96th Academy Awards, from Best Picture to Best Live Action Short.
BEST PICTURE:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Maestro
American Fiction
The Holdovers
Anatomy of a Fall
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest
CONTENDERS:
The Color Purple
May December
All of Us Strangers
WILD CARDS:
Society of the Snow
Ferrari
The Best Picture race is always contentious, and yet this year it feels like the race has whittled down to a far more predictable group than it normally is at this time. We have five heavyweights here: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things are not just clear nominees in this category, but they should be expected to make great showings pretty much across the board—from the acting categories to the technical ones. For the remaining five spots, we need to look to films made on significantly smaller budgets, as well as international films. In the world of independent film, there have been a few titles floating around this awards season which at various times have felt like they’ve had the buzz to earn a Best Picture nomination: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, The Holdovers, May December, and Past Lives. Of these, American Fiction has always been the leader of the pack—its coveted win for the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival signaled its Oscars potential, and it has performed consistently well all season long. All Of Us Strangers, which received a late release in the United States, was banking on a late surge of momentum that, sadly, just never really happened. While its decent showing on the BAFTA longlists keeps it somewhat in the conversation, the lack of attention from the SAG Awards finalized its seeming inability to gain traction with American film awards. Early on in the awards season, May December seemed to be a shoo-in, raking in lots of accolades from various Critics’ Choice awards. But it underperformed with the BAFTAs and was completely absent at the SAG Awards— with the strong cast at the center of the film rapidly losing Oscar momentum, it feels like the film’s chances at Best Picture get worse every day. It’s the reverse story for The Holdovers. Alexander Payne’s latest got a positive but somewhat muted reception upon its release—perhaps because it was released alongside some buzzier titles. But as the season has gone along, the case for The Holdovers has gotten stronger and stronger, and Alexander Payne’s surprise nomination at the DGA Awards was the final sign that this film is a sure bet for a Best Picture nomination. The last title is Past Lives—Celine Song’s debut feature had the earliest calendar release out of any Best Picture nominee this year. At the time, I worried it was not a flashy enough film to have the staying power to make it all the way to the Best Picture lineup. But, while the film’s awards season showing has been a bit inconsistent, it’s still definitely in the conversation. Its strong potential for a screenplay nomination, and Celine Song’s recognition at the DGAs means I’m willing to bet this quiet but beloved film will be in the running.
When talking Best Picture, you also need to consider international films. Films not primarily in English used to have a difficult path to a Best Picture nomination, but partocularly after Parasite’s groundbreaking win, that stigma seems to have gone away recently, and it’s almost as if there’s a designated “International” spot reserved amongst the Best Picture nominees. This year, the two contenders are Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, which both were big winners out of the Cannes Film Festival. There’s a strong chance that both of these films make it into the lineup, but if only one does, the frontrunner is undoubtedly Anatomy of a Fall. Justine Triet’s legal thriller had a bit of a hiccup when France did not select it as its submission for the Best International Film category (possibly because a good portion of the film is still in English and they feared disqualification), but the awards campaign has not slowed down, and it would be a bit of a shock if it didn’t make it in. The Zone of Interest also has major potential here—Jonathan Glazer’s unconventional and unsettling Holocaust drama is on most prognosticators’ lists. In fact, on top of Best Picture, it’s an outside contender in several awards, and might serve as a dark horse contender in multiple categories (as I will discuss further in this article). The odds are in favor that both films will be Best Picture nominees.
But there’s one film waiting in the wings to take one of these spots away from the presumptive nominees, and that’s The Color Purple. The movie musical is one of the biggest enigmas of the year. While it’s a shoo-in for supporting actress for Danielle Brooks, the rest of its Oscars chances are up in the air. It’s a film that could score one nomination, or could pull in a substantial nomination haul. We’re going to have to wait and see, but I think this crowdpleaser is exactly the sort of fare the Academy is going to respond to, and am only reluctantly leaving it out of the lineup. I truly won’t be shocked if it manages to snag one of the nominations, with The Zone of Interest and Past Lives being the most vulnerable to exclusion.
Any lineup of ten films that doesn’t come from the 11 films I’ve singled out would be a major shock, but just for fun, I’ve picked out two films with potential to be major shockers. Ferrari was at one point on everybody’s radar, but it since has faded mostly out of the conversation. But while the Academy’s voting body has become increasingly diverse, it’s still mostly made up of old white men, and if they respond to this movie enough, it might have more support than initially realized. Lastly, I’ve been intrigued by the Oscar campaign for Society of the Snow. Spain’s submission in the International Film category has been getting a strong campaign from Netflix for the technical categories. I think due to the buzz surrounding Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, this film was never initially seen as a part of the Best Picture conversation. But when you look at it on paper, it actually shares a lot with last year’s multi-Oscar winning film All Quiet on the Western Front. It’s an impressive film on a technical level, and the true survival story at its center is incredibly compelling. If voters are paying attention to it for its technical achievements, there’s a chance that enough voters will throw a vote its way to unexpectedly get it into the main competition. It’s an incredibly slim chance, small enough that I hesitated to even mention it, but it’s nonetheless an interesting one to consider. Perhaps with a more ambitious awards campaign, the buzz surrounding Society of the Snow would be different.
BEST DIRECTOR:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Christopher Nolan—Oppenheimer
Greta Gerwig—Barbie
Martin Scorsese—Killers of the Flower Moon
Yorgos Lanthimos—Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer—The Zone of Interest
CONTENDERS:
Bradley Cooper—Maestro
Justine Triet—Anatomy of a Fall
Celine Song—Past Lives
Alexander Payne—The Holdovers
Cord Jefferson—American Fiction
For most of the awards season, five names have been at the top of the list of Best Director contenders: Bradley Cooper, Greta Gerwig, Yorgos Lanthimos, Christopher Nolan, and Martin Scorsese. Their respective films are all seen as the top five most certain Best Picture nominees, and all of their films distinctly show off the directors’ specific style. All of them have considerable love from the industry, and all except Cooper are previous nominees (with Scorsese being the only previous winner). For a long time, I thought of Cooper as perhaps being the biggest lock of the night. The fact that he not only directs but also stars in Maestro means that he’s incredibly visible on the awards campaign, and the fact that he was notoriously “snubbed” in this category for A Star is Born a few years ago means that, despite this only being his sophomore feature film, there are people in the Academy who will see him as being “overdue.” However, he’s the only one of these five who failed to pick a Director’s Guild nomination, which is a pretty big hit for Cooper. This doesn’t mean Cooper should be counted out by any means—the DGAs actually very rarely match up perfectly with the Oscars lineup (the last time they did was 2009)—but it does imply that he’s potentially the most vulnerable of this lineup. And while I feel like the aforementioned lineup of five is certainly a strong possibility, I do see the Academy diverging slightly, and the DGAs have signaled that Cooper is at the bottom of the pecking order. If those 5 are not the nominees, I really can only seeing Cooper or maybe Lanthimos being left out.
So, who would take Cooper’s spot? Well, Alexander Payne was the one who grabbed the 5th spot at the DGAs, and The Holdovers has been picking up momentum as the season has gone along. I think there’s also a chance for Celine Song to make it in if Past Lives has even more industry support than previously thought—she and American Fiction’s Cord Jefferson were both highlighted at the DGAs for Best First-Time Feature Film. But I think for the 5th spot we need to look abroad. As the Oscars have become more international with their voting base, this is the category where that shift has arguably shown the most. In the last 5 years, at least one nominee has been for a film that isn’t in English—even when their respective film isn’t nominated for Best Picture—and I don’t see any reason to think that trend will change this year. This instantly spotlights the directors of the two most buzzed-about international films of the year: Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall and Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest. Both films are within the Best Picture conversation, and I think most prognosticators are not giving enough thought to these films as Best Director contenders. A case could be made for either Triet or Glazer, and while I feel like Anatomy of a Fall in general has higher Best Picture chances, I’m finding myself unexpectedly leaning towards Glazer. Triet’s direction is masterful, but fans of the film will also highlight Sandra Hüller’s performance or the screenplay when speaking the film’s praises. Glazer’s direction is first and foremost what has garnered The Zone of Interest its acclaim, and I’m going out on a limb to guess this will be recognized with the nominations.
BEST ACTRESS:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Lily Gladstone—Killers of the Flower Moon
Emma Stone—Poor Things
Carey Mulligan—Maestro
Margot Robbie—Barbie
Sandra Hüller—Anatomy of a Fall
CONTENDERS:
Fantasia Barrino—The Color Purple
Greta Lee—Past Lives
Natalie Portman—May December
Annette Bening—Nyad
Four of these nominees might as well be set in stone: if Lily Gladstone, Carey Mulligan, Margot Robbie, and Emma Stone don’t all receive nominations it would be considered a huge shock. The biggest question is really just who will receive the 5th nomination spot. I at one point thought Natalie Portman was a lock for May December, but as the awards season has gone on, the film’s lack of attention from both the BAFTAs and especially the SAG Awards has slowed its momentum significantly. Portman might still be in it, but the door is definitely open for another contender. The enigma of how well-loved Past Lives is within the Academy means that Greta Lee can’t be fully counted out, although her awards season report card is not as convincing as I wish it was. Annette Bening’s nomination at the SAG Awards puts her back in the conversation as well, although that SAG nomination is doing some heavy lifting for Bening’s chances after Nyad generally failed to catch on during the awards season. Ultimately, I feel like the two most likely contenders for the 5th nomination are Sandra Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall and Fantasia Barrino for The Color Purple. Hüller’s lack of a nomination at the SAGs isn’t as surprising, considering they are more hesitant to recognize performances not in English, and as I’ve already discussed, the international contingent of the Academy should not be counted out. But an argument definitely can also be made for Barrino. The Color Purple’s late release and lack of festival entries means it’s been a bit of a wildcard this whole awards season, and there’s a good chance it will perform better at the Oscars across the board than most prognosticators are predicting. While Barrino didn’t earn a SAG nomination, the film did earn one for Best Ensemble over contenders like Poor Things, Maestro, and The Holdovers, so Barrino certainly does have support from the actors’ branch of the Academy. I’ve ultimately gone with Hüller, but wouldn’t be wholly surprised by either getting it instead.
BEST ACTOR:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Cillian Murphy—Oppenheimer
Bradley Cooper—Maestro
Paul Giamatti—The Holdovers
Jeffrey Wright—American Fiction
Leonardo DiCaprio—Killers of the Flower Moon
CONTENDER:
Colman Domingo—Rustin
UPSETS:
Andrew Scott—All of Us Strangers
Teo Yoo—Past Lives
Anthony Hopkins—Freud’s Last Case
The Best Actor category has a real problem this year: there are six potential nominees who all feel like they’re shoo-ins: Bradley Cooper, Leonardo DiCaprio, Colman Domingo, Paul Giamatti, Cillian Murphy, and Jeffrey Wright. If any of these six don’t make it in, it will feel like a snub. The problem is there are only five spots, so it becomes a question of who amongst these awards season heavyweights will be left out. Cooper and Murphy are the clearest nominees, and it feels likely that one of them will be the winner. I was unsure about Giamatti at the start of the awards season, but both he and The Holdovers in general have been gaining momentum as the awards season comes to a close, and given that he’s once again being directed by Alexander Payne, it feels like Oscar voters want to correct his perceived snub for Sideways years ago. I also don’t see Jeffrey Wright not making it. American Fiction is a firm Best Picture nominee thanks to a campaign that puts Wright front and center, and it arguably overperformed better than any other film at the SAG Awards, so we know the acting branch is going to respond well to it. That leaves DiCaprio and Domingo. At the SAG Awards, DiCaprio was the one left out, and I know a lot of prognosticators now feel that the Oscars are going to do the same. After all, Domingo’s performance is the exact sort of biopic performance that the Oscars particularly loves—and Netflix’s campaign has been pushing for him specifically rather than for the film itself. That could help him, but that could also hurt him. Other than Best Song, Rustin simply hasn’t been in conversation for other categories, while Killers of the Flower Moon is a main contender. I feel like the SAG Awards were a fluke. As much as I’m hoping Domingo makes the cut, I don’t see DiCaprio missing out here. Ultimately, it feels like a lottery. With it so close, it feels inevitable that this category will be predictable, yet simultaneously feature one of the biggest snubs of the day.
The crowdedness of the category means it’s hard to imagine any spoilers here. But if there were a seventh name in the conversation it would be Andrew Scott in All of Us Strangers. His work has picked up several accolades this season, but the SAG Awards cemented that this film simply hasn’t been able to catch up in the awards season. If the Academy goes all in on Past Lives, there’s a chance that Teo Yoo could sneak in, but this is definitely a longshot, and it would be particularly surprising if Yoo makes it into the race and his co-star Greta Lee doesn’t. Lastly, ever since I saw the trailer for Freud’s Last Case, I’ve been wary about counting out Anthony Hopkins. Some might remember a few years ago when Hopkins, alongside his co-star Jonathan Pryce, got a nomination for The Two Popes seemingly out of nowhere. Hopkins getting a nomination this year would be the exact sort of bizarre choice that happens every so often. Highly unlikely, but still not so impossible that I don’t feel like mentioning it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Da’Vine Joy Randolph—The Holdovers
Emily Blunt—Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks—The Color Purple
Jodie Foster—Nyad
Julianne Moore—May December
CONTENDERS:
Sandra Hüller —The Zone of Interest
Penélope Cruz—Ferrari
America Ferrera—Barbie
Taraji P. Henson—The Color Purple
UPSETS:
Cara Jade Myers—Killers of the Flower Moon
Viola Davis—Air
Florence Pugh—Oppenheimer
This is easily the most unpredictable of the acting categories this year, as it has the fewest nominations which feel completely set in stone. Da’Vine Joy Randolph has certainly emerged as the frontrunner in this category, and Emily Blunt and Danielle Brooks feel like certainties at this point. But the other two spots are potentially wide open, so, let’s consider some of the options. Jodie Foster and Julianne Moore, who I’ve ultimately picked, were both in films that had other buzzed about performances (Annette Bening for Nyad and Natalie Portman and Charles Melton for May December), but as those categories are more crowded, it feels like these two actors actually have the best chance of earning a nomination for their respective films. They benefit greatly from the open field. Many prognosticators have opted to include Sandra Hüller, who’s doing double duty this awards season, seen as a contender here and in Anatomy of a Fall. Actors have pulled off two nominations in one ceremony before, but usually they have a bit more name recognition than Hüller does, and I see the Academy favoring her in Leading Actress rather than here (although I hope she gets at least one nomination to recognize her outstanding year). Penélope Cruz’s SAG nomination has kept her in the conversation, and conversely Viola Davis’ lack of a SAG nomination for Air has hurt her chances significantly. Taraji P. Henson was viewed as a major contender as soon as The Color Purple was released, but the critical buzz surrounding her performance has failed to materialize as voters have flocked more to Brooks. Still, as I’ve said, The Color Purple just might have more support than expected, and one way that could be demonstrated is if Henson sneaks in here. If she does, and Fantasia Barrino gets in for Best Leading Actress, we might just see The Color Purple popping up in the Best Picture category after all. Lastly, we have America Ferrera, Cara Jade Myers, and Florence Pugh. None of them have gotten much awards attention (although Ferrera has been the most speculated about), but they’re each in some of the most Oscars-favored films of the year. I don’t think it’s likely, but if Academy support for any of these films is truly overwhelming, they could sneak in given the wiggle room present in this category.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Robert Downey Jr.—Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling—Barbie
Robert De Niro—Killers of the Flower Moon
Mark Ruffalo—Poor Things
Sterling K. Brown—American Fiction
CONTENDERS:
Charles Melton—May December
Willem Dafoe—Poor Things
WILDCARD:
Dominic Sessa—The Holdovers
If you had asked me a few weeks ago, I would have said this was the most set in stone out of all of the acting categories, and that the nominees would be Robert Downey Jr., Ryan Gosling, Robert De Niro, Charles Melton, and Mark Ruffalo. That’s still a more than plausible lineup, but the SAG Awards have undeniably shaken things up a little bit. For one thing, SAG opted to nominate Willem Dafoe over Ruffalo out of the Poor Things cast. For me, SAG was a fluke—Ruffalo has been more at the center of the Poor Things awards campaign and has picked up far more accolades than Dafoe all season long, so I still think we’re going to see him in contention. If anything, Dafoe’s nod at the SAGs indicates that we could see him and Ruffalo both score nominations (akin to Jesse Plemons’ somewhat surprising nomination for The Power of the Dog two years ago). But the biggest question of this category is where Charles Melton lies in the race. Right out of Cannes, most of the promotion around May December was focused on his more famous co-stars Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore, but as the film continued on the awards circuit, it was Melton who was being singled out for awards. He went from being someone who could be nominated, to someone who was definitely going to be nominated, to someone who was a contender to actually win the whole thing. I certainly could see Melton ultimately earning a nomination, however, his chances have fallen considerably for two reasons: the SAG nominations and the BAFTA longlists. These awards are two of the best indicators of Oscar nominations for actors, and Melton’s absence from both lists is glaring. The BAFTA exclusion was surprising, but could have been considered a fluke (especially as the BAFTAs understandably gravitate more towards British performers), but the fact that the SAG Awards also didn’t nominate Melton or anyone from May December for that matter is a real blow. It indicates that neither he nor the film may have the support needed to cross the finish line. Sterling K. Brown, who has been performing consistently well this awards season for American Fiction had been right on the heels of my initial presumptive five nominees, and his SAG nomination over both Melton and Ruffalo is a good boost of momentum for him. Regardless, I think this category will be made up of some combination of the seven actors I mentioned. The only wildcard is Dominic Sessa, the young actor at the center of The Holdovers. I’ve said a few times that that film has a lot of momentum going into the nominations announcement, and as his co-stars cement their places as nominees, love for the film as a whole might just propel the young actor to a nomination alongside them.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
MY PREDICTIONS:
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro
May December
CONTENDERS:
Asteroid City
Saltburn
IN A JUST WORLD:
The Boy and the Heron
This year, the Adapted Screenplay category is the most crowded one, allowing Best Original Screenplay to nominate some strong, interesting work and also Maestro. Films like Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Past Lives, and May December are all a part of the Best Picture race, and even if one or two of them fall short of securing a spot in the main race, this category looks to be a good consolation prize. I feel really good about this lineup, although there’s a chance for an upset with Asteroid City and Saltburn, two more divisive films with less Best Picture equity, but which nonetheless have significant fans and come from writers who have been recognized by the Academy for their screenplays before. Although, if I had my druthers, there would be more buzz surrounding The Boy and the Heron in this category. Animated films have been nominated for their screenplays before, but the great Hayao Miyazaki has never been recognized with a nomination outside of Best Animated Feature. The Boy and the Heron is one of his most personal and one of his more high-profile films thus far, and in a category that seems like it has potential for a left-field pick, this screenplay would be a deserving if incredibly surprising choice.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Barbie
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
CONTENDER:
The Zone of Interest
WILD CARDS:
The Color Purple
All of Us Strangers
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
With Barbie being switched to this category from Original (where it’s been recognized by every other awards body), this becomes arguably the most crowded category of the night. Barbie, Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Poor Things are absolute juggernauts of the season, and it’s hard not to see them being recognized here. Meanwhile, American Fiction might not be looking at the same awards haul as these other films, but the main thing that is garnering that film attention is the screenplay, so it seems like a lock for the final slot. Had Barbie been included in the Original Screenplay category as the filmmakers had requested, that would have left an open slot for under the radar picks like The Color Purple or All of Us Strangers, or even the beloved Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, which would have ordinarily had its best shot for a nomination in this category. If any film does upset one of the frontrunners, it would be The Zone of Interest, which I’ve mentioned I see as a potential upset in several categories. In any other year, I’d see it as a shoo-in for a nomination, but the five nominees seem pretty set in stone to me, and I can’t guess which one would be vulnerable to a spoiler.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:
MY PREDICTIONS:
The Zone of Interest (UK)
The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Taste of Things (France)
Four Daughters (Tunisia)
CONTENDERS:
Io Capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
The Promised Land (Denmark)
Totém (Mexico)
The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)
POSSIBILITIES:
Amerikatsi (Armenia)
Godland (Iceland)
20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
Given the awards season thus far, there are a few particularly buzzy titles in contention: The Zone of Interest, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Taste of Things, Society of the Snow, Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Fallen Leaves, The Promised Land, and Totém all have significant accolades and any combination of these films would make for an unsurprising lineup. Of them, The Zone of Interest is the only real certainty, and will be the likely winner in the category, while I also think The Teachers’ Lounge is fairly set in stone at this point. All other films listed feel like a bit of a toss-up—they’re all highly acclaimed—although I’ve selected as the most likely contenders The Taste of Things on the strength of Juliette Binoche’s name and Society of the Snow for its technical achievements and for Netflix’s strong campaign on its behalf.
But if you look at my predictions, you might be thinking to yourself, “Miles, you listed all of these films as having a good chance at a nomination, yet one of your predictions is for Four Daughters which you didn’t name? What’s going on?!” Well, I’m glad you asked. Four years ago, the North Macedonian film Honeyland made history as the first documentary to be recognized in this category. Ever since then, documentaries have done incredibly well, and there’s been a documentary included here for three of the last four years. On the shortlist, we have 3 documentaries included: Four Daughters, 20 Days in Mariupol, and The Mother of All Lies, and I think one will make it into the lineup as a spoiler. Between them, I’m picking Four Daughters as it’s a much more narrative-based film, which tends to do better in this category than more hard-hitting journalism docs like 20 Days in Mariupol. Meanwhile, The Mother of All Lies made this shortlist, but not the Best Documentary shortlist, which definitely puts it as the bottom of the pack in terms of likelihood to receive a nomination. Lastly, none of us should be counting out The Monk and the Gun. This film hasn’t gotten a theatrical release yet, which explains why it’s not on a lot of peoples’ radar, but it might be a major surprise. Director Pawo Choyning Dorji was nominated in this category two years ago for his first film, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (the first film Bhutan ever submitted to the Oscars). It was a crowdpleasing, delightful film, and if his follow-up is of the same Oscar-y quality, then Dorji just might end up going 2 for 2 with the Academy.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Wish
CONTENDERS:
Nimona
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
SPOILERS:
Robot Dreams
The Peasants
In a category typically dominated by Disney and Pixar, it’s really refreshing to see the frontrunners this year being films from neither of those studios. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, the sequel to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse which won a few years ago is a critically-acclaimed and dynamic film that’s truly groundbreaking and many would consider it to be the perceived frontrunner thus far. But it faces fierce competition from The Boy and the Heron. While Studio Ghibli has only won in this category once (for Spirited Away 20 years ago), the fact that this is likely Hayao Miyazaki’s last film, and the fact that the Oscars will have another chance to reward Across the Spider-Verse once part 2 comes out, means this category is a real toss-up. Regardless, both will definitely receive nominations.
While Disney and Pixar might not be winning the top prize this year, they’re still too notable in the industry to ignore, and their offerings of Elemental and Wish are likely to be nominated even with more lukewarm reviews. That leaves exactly one spot. I’ve seen a lot of support from prognosticators for Netflix’s excellent Nimona—especially after its strong showing at the Annie Awards—and I’d be thrilled if it snuck in ahead of one of the more conventional options. The commercial appeal of The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem might earn one of those films a nomination as well. But, to be honest, I feel pretty comfortable picking Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget. Aardman Animations is beloved within the industry, and has consistently done very well with the Academy here. This is one of their most high-profile and most anticipated projects to date, and I feel like a lot of people are severely underestimating how well it will do with the nomination committee. I’ve not seen a lot of prognosticators confident in its chances, but of the more out there picks I’ve made in this list, it’s the one I feel most confident about. Don’t be against Aardman.
Lastly, there are two wildcards in the form of The Peasants and Robot Dreams. These international entries are certainly not well-known, but I think there’s at least some potential for support for them. The Peasants looks absolutely gorgeous, and comes from the same team as the Oscar-nominated Loving Vincent from a few years ago. And Robot Dreams, which will be released next year, is supposed to be utterly charming, and one of my most anticipated films of 2024. If it’s as great as people say, and enough true animation lovers throw votes its way, there’s a slim chance it could become the biggest surprise of nomination day.
BEST DOCUMENTARY:
MY PREDICTIONS:
American Symphony
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Stamped from the Beginning
The Eternal Memory
20 Days in Mariupol
CONTENDERS:
Four Daughters
Beyond Utopia
A Still Small Voice
POSSIBILITIES:
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
Apolonia, Apolonia
In the Rearview
To Kill a Tiger
Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy
32 Sounds
The Documentary category often features some surprises, but there are definitely some clues to help us figure out which films will make up the nominees. The most prominent contenders from the shortlist are undeniably two documentaries which serve as portraits of public figures: American Symphony, which follows musician Jon Batiste, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie about actor Michael J. Fox. Netflix always has a great showing here, and on top of American Symphony, there’s a good chance they’ll score a nomination for Stamped from the Beginning, inspired by the book of same name by Ibram X. Kendi. For the last two nominees, I’m looking at the international contenders, as documentaries from outside the United States have been doing very well in recent years thanks to the increasingly diverse makeup of the Academy’s nomination branch. Of those contenders, the three most likely picks would be The Eternal Memory, 20 Days in Mariupol, and Four Daughters—the latter two of which are also on the shortlist for Best International Film. Weirdly, while I picked Four Daughters as the more likely nominee in the International Film category, I’m picking 20 Days in Mariupol here; its urgent news footage style of filmmaking definitely has a better shot in this category, whereas the more experimental nature of Four Daughters has traditionally not been as compelling for this category’s voting branch. The Eternal Memory is a touching and quiet film, the likes of which often picks up a nomination here (see last year’s nominee A House Made of Splinters) and should definitely be on any oddsmakers’ radar. While in this unpredictable category, you don’t want to count any film out, there are two other films that I see as a slightly more likely contenders than the rest: A Still Small Voice and Beyond Utopia. Despite both films featuring charitable Christian figures at their center, they couldn’t be more different. A Still Small Voice is more quiet and contemplative, while Beyond Utopia has great political relevancy and the pacing of a thriller. Both have picked up several strong accolades throughout the year, and could be definite contenders.
BEST FILM EDITING:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
Poor Things
Maestro
CONTENDERS:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest
The Color Purple
Ferrari
Society of the Snow
Film Editing is always one of those categories that Oscars prognosticators hold with great regard, as more than any other category, it tends to overlap with Best Picture. It’s incredibly difficult to win Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination, and so any Best Picture contender automatically enters the running here. That means that the five biggest names in the Best Picture race are easy picks for the nominees here as, especially as each one already is a bigger budget project that tends to do well in this category. If films like American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, or The Zone of Interest can score nominations here, it will signal that they have significant Academy support, and should be ones to watch out for as possible dark horse picks for Best Picture. Nominees in this category who aren’t Best Picture contenders tend to be action films or musicals, which means The Color Purple, Ferrari, and Society of the Snow definitely have a shot at making it here, even if their chances in other categories feel less certain.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Oppenheimer
Maestro
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Zone of Interest
CONTENDERS:
Barbie
El Conde
Saltburn
Past Lives
The Color Purple
It’s been a big year for films that switch between black and white film to color film. Oppenheimer, Maestro, and Poor Things all included this particular trick, and they just happen to be the three frontrunners in this category this year. Additionally, three-time nominee Rodrigo Prieto is likely to be a nominee again this year…the question is how many times?! He was the cinematographer for two of the biggest films of the year: Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon. Him scoring two nominations is definitely not out of the question, but if he were to only get one, Killers of the Flower Moon is more likely. I personally think that Barbie is the more visibly striking movie between the two, but the cinematography is possibly overshadowed by the production design, and it failed to score a nomination at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards, which shows it might be vulnerable here., so there’s definitely room for an upset! The Academy is a sucker for black and white filmography, and might look at the beautifully shot Chilean vampire film El Conde (which did receive an ASC nomination ahead of Barbie). Saltburn has garnered quite a bit of audience buzz that hasn’t really translated to Oscar buzz, but if it gets an Oscar nomination, this is the category it would be for. The Color Purple is a high-spectacle musical and, as I’ve said several times in these predictions, has the potential to surprise everyone with its nominations haul. If it does, it could easily land here. Past Lives is a much smaller film than normally gets recognized here, but the cinematography is gorgeous and intimate. It could be a spoiler here if the Academy rallies behind it, especially as this is the only one of the technical categories that it has any chance in. But I’m going for an out of left field pick with The Zone of Interest; Polish cinematographer Łukasz Żal is a two-time nominee, and that automatically makes it a contender here. It’s already going to be on Oscars’ voters radar, and I’m surprised it hasn’t been more of a part of the conversation, given the striking and distinct look of the film. It might not be a smart pick, and I wouldn’t put money on it, but I’m standing by it.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Barbie
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Asteroid City
CONTENDERS:
Oppenheimer
The Color Purple
The Zone of Interest
Saltburn
Napoleon
As will become increasingly apparent as we go through this list, I’m pretty much looking at Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things as contenders in every single technical category—that’s what happens when your most prominent Best Picture contenders all have big budgets—and that could very well be the lineup here. After all, this category typically gravitates towards period films and fantasy films, and that’s exactly where these five films lie. But there are certainly some options for spoilers. Despite his well-known and well-loved aesthetic, Wes Anderson’s films have actually not had a great track record in this category, but the distinct look of Asteroid City shouldn’t be ignored, and this category is this film’s best chance at a nomination. I think it might just edge out Oppenheimer, whose awards campaign is far more concentrated on other categories. We could also see some films with Best Picture nominee potential like The Color Purple and The Zone of Interest make it in, with wildcard contenders Saltburn and Napoleon perhaps being upsets.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Maestro
CONTENDERS:
Ferrari
The Little Mermaid
The Color Purple
Wonka
Napoleon
Once again, I’ve ended up singling out Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. This year’s Oscars juggernauts share many traits, and among them is their strong costume design. This category almost always goes to a period piece, and Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things are not only period pieces, but ones with recognizable designers, most whom have been nominated before. The exception here is Barbie, but the costume design is SO apparent and so strong that I think it might be the rare non-period film to score a win in this category, even from the stuffy Academy. If you’re looking for spoilers to make it into the category, I’d look at Ferrari and The Little Mermaid. These films feature designs by Massimo Cantini Parrini and Colleen Atwood respectively, who are two Academy darlings. Similarly, don’t count out Napoleon or Wonka, both of which have designs from previous winners in this category, or The Color Purple, which is a more high profile entry whose Academy support is still to be determined.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Maestro
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Ferrari
Society of the Snow
CONTENDERS:
Golda
Beau Is Afraid
Napoleon
The Last Voyage of the Demeter
Killers of the Flower Moon
The rest of the categories in this list have all helped me out considerably because they have shortlists! We know that the nominees will be picked from amongst these ten films. And I must say, while this category is mostly underwhelming for me, I’m incredibly happy that this year’s lineup doesn’t feature a prominent fat suit!!! Perhaps The Whale winning last year finally broke the curse as the Academy realized that they could not reward a fat suit any more than that. Despite the merciful lack of fat suits, we still can expect this category to be heavy on prosthetics, and makeups that turn actors into recognizable historical figures, which puts Maestro and Oppenheimer towards the top of the charts, with Maestro in particular having heavily centered the makeup work in its campaign. This physical transformation trend also makes a good case for films like Golda, Ferrari, and Napoleon, and I’m leaning towards Ferrari as it’s the only film with real buzz in other categories, although the transformation of Helen Mirren into Golda Meir in Golda is arguably the most clear transformation out of these three films. Outside of “realistic” makeups, I think Poor Things is a no-brainer here, if only for the incredible work done on Willem Dafoe for the film. And lastly, I’ve picked Society of the Snow; the makeup work done is perhaps more subtle than what tends to be rewarded, but Netflix has been heavily championing this film for the technical awards and the work is impressive enough that it at least deserves consideration.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
MY PREDICTIONS:
The Creator
Poor Things
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Society of the Snow
Godzilla Minus One
CONTENDERS:
Napoleon
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One
Rebel Moon—Part One: A Child of Fire
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
With Oppenheimer surprisingly not making the shortlist, a new frontrunner in the category has emerged with The Creator, a film with some great visual effects and not much else to offer. I think that the Academy’s general love for Poor Things will push it into contention (plus, listen, those animal hybrids and Willem Dafoe’s burp bubbles were great). As mentioned before, Netflix is campaigning hard for Society of the Snow, and the realistic plane crash sequence at the center of its campaign is certainly well done. For the franchise films, I’m looking at precedent. The MCU has been nominated here before, but the Mission: Impossible films and recent Indiana Jones films haven’t been, so I think of those entries Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 certainly has the best shot. I’d love to see some recognition for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and I could definitely see it making its way in, but it’s an uphill battle for animation in this category (it would be only the third animated film to be nominated here), so I think it will struggle. The critical distaste of Rebel Moon (and, for that matter, Napoleon) hurt its chances—meanwhile, Godzilla Minus One has been a surprise hit with critics and audiences alike, and voters know this is the best chance of recognizing it at the Oscars. Look for it to nab the final spot.
BEST SOUND:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Oppenheimer
Maestro
Barbie
Ferrari
The Killer
CONTENDERS:
The Zone of Interest
The Creator
Napoleon
Killers of the Flower Moon
Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One
The two frontrunners here feel pretty obvious to me: Oppenheimer and Maestro. It’s Oppenheimer’s to lose, despite Christopher Nolan’s continued insistence on disregarding every conventional thought about sound mixing a film properly. But don’t count out Maestro—often, a film simply being about music is enough for voters to be intrigued by it in this category, and that will work to its advantage here. I think Barbie should make it—its use of sound is not as IN YOUR FACE if you’re not paying attention, but it’s very well done, and the love for the film as a whole will help it out here. The other spots I’m less confident about. I feel like Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, and Mission Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One have the biggest hurdle to make it in, which leaves four films competing for two spots. The Creator could do well, but I don’t feel confident about its chances anywhere outside of Visual Effects. I’d love to see The Zone of Interest make it in—the sound mixing is truly artistic and quite unconventional, but perhaps too unconventional for the Academy to really pick up on. This leaves Ferrari and The Killer, where the racing sequences and shoot-em-up sequences are in line with the sort of films often given nominations by the Oscars.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
American Fiction
The Boy and the Heron
Poor Things
CONTENDERS:
Barbie
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
POSSIBILITIES:
The Holdovers
The Color Purple
Society of the Snow
Saltburn
Elemental
American Symphony
The Zone of Interest
Best Original Score is a particularly competitive category this year, with several notable scores all vying for contention. So, to make my picks, I looked at the category’s history and found the three things that can most consistently earn a film an Oscar nomination for Best Original Score:
1) Be a Best Picture nominee
2) Be an animated film
3) Have a score composed by John Williams
John Williams did in fact make the shortlist with his score for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, but I do think on this occasion, the field is simply too crowded for him to make it in. That’s because there are five guaranteed Best Picture nominees which all have notable scores: American Fiction, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. All five of these films have a great shot at a nomination, but with such a crowded field, we have to figure out which ones are the main contenders. The two locks have to be Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon. Since winning this award two years ago, Ludwig Göransson is officially an Oscar darling, and the omnipresent strings in Oppenheimer might earn him his second win. Killers of the Flower Moon is a contender for more sentimental reasons—it’s the last film score from Robbie Robertson, a longtime collaborator of Scorsese’s who has inexplicably never been recognized by the Academy. Scorsese himself has been campaigning strongly on Robertson’s behalf. On merit alone, there’s been a lot of love for Laura Karpman’s jazzy score for American Fiction, and I feel like the voters who love the film but can’t recognize it in other technical categories will rally behind it here. A lot of prognosticators are unsure about the score for Poor Things—it’s definitely odd and unconventional, but I would say that also makes it distinctive, and if the Academy accepts this film as a whole I feel like they have to recognize what a strong companion piece this score truly is. So, it’s a bit of a wild guess, but I see Poor Things making the cut. That, perhaps surprisingly, makes Barbie the odd one out in this particular category. I’d say most people who follow the Oscars will disagree with this choice, and I certainly do think Barbie has a good shot here, but compared to these other four picks, I feel like Barbie’s Original Score is overshadowed by the Original Songs (see next category!!!) and this is one of the few categories which I’m hesitant to predict a Barbie nomination. I might be wrong about this, but if I’m right, I’ll be incredibly proud.
So, if not Barbie, who’s getting the 5th nomination? Well, as I said, let’s take a look at the animated films! Three animated films made the shortlist: Elemental, The Boy and the Heron, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. While Pixar films have been nominated here before, I don’t think there’s enough support for Elemental as a whole to earn it a nomination. But I could absolutely see either The Boy and the Heron or Across the Spider-Verse making it in…and maybe even both! Both are films with a good amount of support, and both frankly have incredible scores. I’ve seen a lot of prognosticators going with Across the Spider-Verse, and I can understand why. The score is INCREDIBLE! I was rooting for Into the Spider-Verse to get a nomination in this category when it was released, and am thrilled that its sequel is at least in the conversation this time around. This is a score that is exciting and propulsive, just like the film itself. A nomination for it here would be fantastic, and is certainly not out of the question. But my money is ultimately going on The Boy and the Heron. The Boy and the Heron’s score comes from the great Joe Hisaishi, who has never been nominated before. While Hisaishi is prolific, he’s arguably best known for his collaborations with Hayao Miyazaki, and The Boy and the Heron is likely their last collaboration. Now that he’s actually on the shortlist, perhaps the nominating committee will pay attention to his work and, if they do, this score is right in line with the sort of lyrical and rousing work they usually respond to. Plus, while the Golden Globes are a notoriously inconsistent Oscars predictor, the fact that they recognized The Boy and the Heron in this category at least puts its Score on the Academy’s radar. It has as good a shot as any film to sneak in as an upset.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
MY PREDICTIONS:
“What Was I Made For?”—Barbie
“I’m Just Ken”—Barbie
“The Fire Inside”—Flamin’ Hot
“Superpower (I)”—The Color Purple
“It Never Went Away”—American Symphony
CONTENDERS:
“Road to Freedom”—Rustin
“Dance the Night”—Barbie
“Keep It Movin”—The Color Purple
“Meet In the Middle”—Flora and Son
DARK HORSES:
“Quiet Eyes”—Past Lives
“Am I Dreaming”—Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
“High Life”—Flora and Son
NOT LIKELY, BUT POSSIBLE:
“Can’t Catch Me Now”—The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
“Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)”—Asteroid City
“Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)”—Killers of the Flower Moon
The first question to ask when looking at this category is, “Which two songs from Barbie are going to make the cut?” Several years ago, the Academy changed the rules for this category so that, while multiple songs from a film could be submitted and even make the shortlist, no more than two songs from one movie could be nominated. This was instituted to minimize one movie from utterly dominating the category entirely. It also has caused certain films to adopt a strategy of only submitting one song to the Oscars so that their entries don’t steal votes from each other (this is infamously why “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” from Encanto wasn’t nominated…because Disney didn’t even submit it as they didn’t know it would be a breakout hit!) It feels likely that two of Barbie’s three shortlisted songs will make it. “What Was I Made For?” is far and away the frontrunner in the category, and will definitely be nominated. Between the other two, it’s really up in the air, but while “Dance the Night” shouldn’t be counted out, my instinct tells me “I’m Just Ken” will grab the second spot. It’s THE breakout song, and the accompanying dance sequence is a standout part of the film. The Kenergy is just too overpowering for it not to be placed high on voters’ ballots.
Outside of Barbie, you should always bet on songwriter Dianne Warren—she has received a nomination in 8 of the last 9 years, after all. But the Academy’s insistence on nominating her year after year might be tested when they learn her only shortlisted song this year is for a movie about the invention of Flamin’ Hot Cheetos. Still, the last four years I’d never even heard of the movies her nominated songs were from, so let’s hear it for future Oscar nominee Flamin’ Hot!!!
The Color Purple and Flora and Son are two musicals, and the only films other than Barbie to have more than one nominee on the shortlist. I could actually see “Meet Me In the Middle” making it if voters are paying attention to Flora and Son—it’s a sweet song, but is particularly lovely in the context of the film as a whole. But in general, it’s undeniable that The Color Purple is the film more on the Academy’s radar. If you’re a musical nominated for Best Picture and original songs have been written specifically for the movie, you know they’re at least going to be a part of the conversation. “Keep It Movin” is my personal favorite between the two songs thanks to its jauntier beat, but the Oscars absolutely love a power ballad, and “Superpower (I)” has the benefit of being sung by the film’s star Fantasia Barrino, so I’ve ended up choosing it after much deliberation.
For the final spot, I’ve seen a lot of prognosticators opting for “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony and “Road to Freedom” from Rustin; both have starpower behind them, being written and sung by Jon Batiste and Lenny Kravitz respectively. Both are also Netflix films, and are being campaigned for heavily. I wouldn’t be surprised by either (or even both) making the list, but between the two, I just feel like the fact that American Symphony is ABOUT Jon Batiste puts its song over the edge here, giving “It Never Went Away” the last spot in what might have been the hardest category for me to finalize my predictions. And that doesn’t even leave room for entries like “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives or “Am I Dreaming” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, both of which are dark horse contenders whose nominations will hinge on Academy support for the films overall.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Nai Nai & Wài Pó
Last Song from Kabul
Camp Courage
If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis
How We Get Free
CONTENDERS:
Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games
The Last Repair Shop
The Barber of Little Rock
Between Earth & Sky
Island in Between
Wings of Dust
Oasis
Deciding Vote
The ABCs of Book Banning
Bear
Of all of the categories, this is the one I have the least amount of information to go on. But in researching the shorts, and getting to watch some of them, I’m going by instinct! While most documentary shorts tend to be serious in terms of topic, the winners in this category are often more lighthearted or quirky in terms of tone. Think of 2019 winner Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl), which examines the volatility of living in a war-torn country, but through the lens of a school that teaches girls how to skateboard. I picked that film as the winner in the category before I’d even seen it—the title alone tells you it’s one the Academy is going to pay attention to. This year, the two films giving me that same vibe are Nai Nai & Wài Pó and Last Song from Kabul, both of which are available to watch and are well worth watching. Camp Courage also could fit into this category, and has the extra benefit of being distributed by Netflix, which has had a consistently strong showing in this category for the past few years. I feel like this sort of vibe would also benefit films like The Last Repair Shop (which comes from Kris Bowers and Ben Proudfoot, two previous nominees in this category) and Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games. But over them, I’ve picked two films that are undeniably heavier in tone. If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis and How We Get Free have the feel of hard-hitting journalism, and I feel like their subject matter will make Academy voters take notice. If Dreams Were Lightning comes from Ramin Bahrani, a previous Oscar-nominee for Best Adapted Screenplay, whose background in non-documentaries makes the storytelling particularly dramatic while still being accessible. How We Get Free, meanwhile, is getting a healthy awards campaign from distributor HBO. Again, this category is a toss-up, but I’m hoping my instincts can guide me to making some informed guesses in this category. With the short films, I tend to either do really well or really poorly, so we’ll just have to wait and see!
BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
MY PREDICTIONS:
Once upon a Studio
Letter to a Pig
Wild Summon
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Humo (Smoke)
CONTENDERS:
I’m Hip
Pete
27
A Kind of Testament
Our Uniform
POSSIBILITIES:
Pachyderme
Ninety-Five Senses
Eeva
Boom
Koerkorter (Dog Apartment)
The most high-profile film on the shortlist is undoubtedly Once upon a Studio, a film made by Disney to celebrate its 100th anniversary. The film features characters from every single animated production in the company’s history as they come to life within the abandoned studio. As a commercial for Disney, it’s nostalgic and sweet and lovely. As an Oscar contender, it’s utterly laughable. But as much as I love the short film categories, they’ve had their fair share of stinkers over the years, and I have to admit that this is probably going to be one of them. Expect it to be nominated. And expect it to be the frontrunner. And expect me to be mad about it.
It’s not the only animated film with some name recognition, though. Three prominent Pixar and Disney animators have made their own short films, and while they don’t have studio involvement, this does give them a higher profile. Those projects are I’m Hip, Pete, and War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko. All three are certainly contenders, although perhaps because of Once Upon a Studio’s prominence here getting me upset, I’m irrationally choosing to believe that such name recognition won’t come into play. Looking at the films, Letter to a Pig and Wild Summon seem to be the most decorated as far as festival wins are concerned, and both feature stunning and genuinely interesting animation, which I think will carry them to a nomination. My wildcard pick is Humo (Smoke), a Mexican short film which I haven’t seen, but looks incredible and has been championed by none other than Guillermo del Toro. Other films with significant support are 27, which won the top prize at the prestigious Annecy Awards for animation and A Kind of Testament, which has quite a few awards to its name and seems to cover darker material than some of the other nominees. Lastly, from its trailer alone, I was intrigued by the Iranian short film Our Uniform, which appears to be drawn mostly on fabric. So those are my current standouts, but given the unpredictability of the short films, you can’t count any of the films out of the running entirely.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
MY PREDICTIONS:
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Knight of Fortune
Strange Way of Life
Good Boy
An Avocado Pit
CONTENDERS:
The After
Red, White and Blue
The Shepherd
The One Note Man
POSSIBILITIES:
The Anne Frank Gift Shop
Bienvenidos a Los Angeles
Dead Cat
Invincible
Invisible Border
Yellow
For our final category, we go to Live Action Short Film, traditionally one of the least talked about categories of the Oscars ceremony. But this year, it is genuinely one of the most fascinating categories and I’M ABOUT TO TELL YOU WHY! See, typically, the short film categories serve as a showcase for lesser-known filmmakers. Short films are easier to get funding for than features, and up-and-coming filmmakers can make them to get attention in the industry for future projects. Several prominent directors got the first Oscar nominations in this category, which is why it’s an exciting one to pay attention to. But just because short films are usually made by lesser-known directors, there’s no rule that more established filmmakers can’t be in competition in this category. And this year features not one but two shortlisted films from rather prominent directors: Wes Anderson’s The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar and Pedro Almodovar’s Strange Way of Life. Both of these projects also feature some famous actors, and when you go through the casts of the shortlisted films, they’re not the only ones. Good Boy stars Ben Whishaw, The After stars David Oyelowo, Red White and Blue stars Brittany Snow, The One Note Man stars Jason Watkins (of The Crown), and The Shepherd features a bizarre cameo from producer John Travolta. In a category like this one which is so hard to predict, star power like this is usually a good indication that a film will receive a nomination. I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of these films make the final list of nominations based solely on the names attached.
However, and this is where it gets tricky, this might be a case of TOO MUCH star power. Having a celebrity in the cast has never been a guarantee of victory here, and there’s sentiment amongst the voting bloc for this category that more established entities in the industry should, essentially, stay in their lane. That a nomination here would be taking away recognition from a film that otherwise would have gotten in on merit alone. The nominations here will be an interesting benchmark for where this category stands, and should reveal whether the category is getting more commercial, or whether it will reject the mainstream. With my predictions, I’m pessimistically leaning towards the sway of star power, and am placing The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Strange Way of Life, and Good Boy all within the realm of top contenders. But I’m also hedging my bets a bit. The sleeper here is Knight of Fortune, which comes from Kim Magnusson. While not a household name, he is a titan in this particular category—the rare film director who has been content to stay in the world of shorts. And he’s been rewarded by the Academy, with 2 wins here out of 7 nominations so far. I also am predicting An Avocado Pit, a Portuguese film which is the sort of fare the Academy usually recognizes in a less star-studded year, and which I think voters will respond to. Plus, while the cast and directors are up-and-coming talent, it isn’t without its celebrity champions, as one of the producers is Elliot Page.
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