It’s time for yet another Oscars, the second most prestigious award for film! On Sunday, for the 95th time, we’ll hear what the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has picked for the very best in film. It’s been, I would say, a really good awards season. The problems with the Oscars remain, but the lineup of Best Picture contenders this year is the most interesting that it’s been in a while, and I’m hoping we’ll see some really deserved awards handed out on Oscar night. I also hope that this year, I do a bit better with my predictions than last year! I foolishly did not believe the hype surrounding CODA (in my defense…a late surge like that was genuinely unprecedented) and it really screwed my numbers over. This year, I still could see things going very differently than how I’ve laid it out—especially if Everything Everywhere All at Once pulls off a major sweep—but I feel comfortable with my reasoning for my picks in every single category. I hope you find my analysis interesting, and helpful in filling out your own ballots! Or at the very least pique your interest in some of the categories (and maybe convince you to watch My Year of Dicks. It’s on Hulu!)
All
opinions are my own. And forgive any typos/incoherency/tangents. I’ve had a
busy couple of weeks and haven’t had time to reread my thoughts carefully. And now here are my predictions for ALL CATEGORIES for the 95th Academy Awards!
BEST PICTURE:
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: At this point, anything else would be a surprise
Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should
Have Been Nominated: No Bears
One of the reasons I do this every year is that I find it really interesting to watch how the awards season progresses. How does awards season buzz get generated, and how does it sustain itself and evolve. For example, when Everything Everywhere All at Once was first released and became a major box office success, there was discussion about how it “might” earn a Best Picture nomination. I was skeptical at the time—it’s an incredible movie, but plenty of great films don’t get Oscar nominations, and I thought the film would be too wacky for the Oscars’ sensibilities. But as time has gone on, Everything Everywhere All at Once went from likely nominee to potential winner. And then it went from a contender to win to being an actual frontrunner. Despite all odds, the momentum for this film has continued to build, and now it’s not just a frontrunner but it’s pretty much guaranteed to win. It has taken home to top prize at every one of the major guild awards. Plus, as the rare original property to be a Box Office success, it’s a winner that the Academy can rally behind and will expect viewers to tune in for. Its awards season checklist makes it seem like a no-brainer for the win. And I must say I’m pleased. While my personal favorite film of the year was The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once was a close second. And seeing a film like this not just win but dominate the awards season is incredibly refreshing.
If you read my list of favorite films of the year, you won’t be surprised to see that my pick for what should have been nominated is Jafar Panahi’s No Bears. A deceptively quiet film, No Bears wasn’t just one of the best films of the year, it was—in my mind—the most essential. For those not familiar with Panahi, he’s an Iranian director who—due to the political nature of this films—has been slapped with a 20-year filmmaking ban by the Iranian government. Since that ban was instated, he has made five feature films in secret and managed to smuggle them outside of Iran for distribution. The first of these feature films (brilliantly titled This Is Not a Film) was famously brought to Cannes on a hard drive hidden inside of a cake. Each film of Panahi’s is, frankly, unbelievable just by its existence, but each one still manages to be brilliant in its own right, removed from the context in which they were made. No Bears is another marvel—and arguably his angriest and most personal film to date. It’s a defiant film, which speaks to the importance of cinema with an urgency that few filmmakers could ever capture. One of the biggest stories of this awards season has been when a mic captured Steven Spielberg telling Tom Cruise that he “might have saved the entire theatrical industry.” Whether Spielberg’s statement to Cruise is true or not is another discussion, but the fact that No Bears exists almost makes it feel laughable. Panahi had actually been (illegally) detained and thrown in a prison in Tehran shortly before No Bears had its premiere at the Venice Film Festival. He was only released a few weeks ago, after going on a hunger strike several months into his imprisonment. It puts into perspective what film is supposed to be all about. All the talk about Box Office performance and “the future of the industry” is, frankly, silly when compared to a film like No Bears. The industry as we know it could collapse tomorrow and there would still be filmmakers. If we’re lucky, even a fraction of them will be as good as Jafar Panahi.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Could Win: Steven Spielberg—The Fabelmans
Should Win: Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Have Been Nominated: Jafar Panahi—No Bears
The best way to predict this category is easily to look to the DGA Awards, which has overlapped with the Oscar for Best Director 17 of the last 20 years. That’s a pretty reliable track record, and it means that Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert immediately became the frontrunners as soon as they won this award. Much like in the Best Picture category, Kwan and Scheinert have gone from contenders to frontrunners, and the momentum is undoubtedly on their side. At this point, the biggest knock against it winning in this category is simply the fact that the Academy rarely awards directing duos. In 94 years, only two films with two directors have won in this category (Jerome Robbins and Robert Wise for West Side Story and the Coen Brothers for No Country for Old Men). But it getting nominated is half the battle, so this is only a minor hurdle. The other complication it might face is that since Everything Everywhere All at Once is now widely recognized as the Best Picture frontrunner, voters might want to spread the love elsewhere here. While Best Picture and Best Director have frequently gone hand in hand, the overlap between the two categories has been much slimmer as of late. The Best Director-winning film only went on to win Best Picture in 4 of the last 10 years. Compare that to the 10 years before that, when the Best Director winning film won 8 times out of 10, and you can easily see the way those categories are drifting apart. If that divide does happen, the most likely nominee to pull an upset is Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. Spielberg’s loss at the DGA Awards was certainly a blow, but he shouldn’t be counted out completely. Spielberg last won in this category back in 1998. Considering how beloved he is, there’s a sense that he might be overdue to win again, and if you’re going to give Spielberg a 3rd Oscar, it might as well be for a project like The Fabelmans that is so clearly a personal film. It’s all going to be a question of narrative, but if Spielberg’s story is compelling enough, he might garner enough voters for a surprise win.
As for who should have been nominated, it’s Jafar Panahi. Read through the final paragraph of the last category for a clear understanding of why. I would truly love to see an American distributor actively campaign for him one of these days. He’s such a vital figure in the industry, and one that deserves far more recognition for the sacrifices he’s made, and the quality of the films he produces despite all odds.
BEST ACTRESS:
Will Win: Cate Blanchett as Lydia Tár—Tár
Could Win: Michelle Yeoh as Evelyn Quan Wang—Everything Everywhere All Once
The Wildest of Wildcards: Andrea Riseborough as Leslie Rowlands—To Leslie
Should Win: Michelle Yeoh as Evelyn Quan Wang—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Have Been Nominated: Tilda Swinton as Julie Hart and Rosalind Hart—The Eternal Daughter
This is a two-horse race. Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh have been far and away the most consistent winners all season long. Both have picked up their fair share of awards all season and a strong case could be made for either. I was really tempted to pick Yeoh. While Blanchett has a slightly better scorecard this awards season, the SAG Award is the most crucial precursor and that one went to Yeoh, which is a pretty big deal. Perhaps most importantly, Yeoh has the “overdue” narrative which so frequently brings actors to Oscar glory. Blanchett is a two-time Oscar winner already, and if you compare that to an actor like Yeoh who has gotten her first nomination after a decades long career, it’s not difficult to imagine Oscar voters deciding it’s Yeoh’s turn. Unlike most actors with an “overdue” narrative, however, a win for Yeoh would in no way be a pity vote. She’s incredible in this film—giving not just my favorite performance of these nominees, but my favorite film performance of the year. As Everything Everywhere All at Once’s dominance has become more prevalent, it seems ridiculous for the actor at its center to not be recognized. And yet…while a win for Yeoh would not surprise me at all…I’m ultimately predicting Blanchett. With some exceptions over the years, it’s rare for a film to completely sweep a ceremony and win everything. Oscar voters know that Everything Everywhere All at Once is going to do well, but if Blanchett doesn’t win, it’s likely that Tár goes home emptyhanded. For a film that clearly has a lot of fans in the Academy, that just doesn’t seem plausible to me, and I see the biggest fans of Tár rallying behind Blanchett here.
But…the Oscar fan in me sees a slight possibility—and just the slightest one, mind you—of this going to Andrea Riseborough. For those who haven’t been following this dramatic story, Riseborough was not even in the Oscars conversation a couple months ago, and fewhad even heard of the film To Leslie. But as Oscar voting opened up, a grassroots campaign fueled by celebrity social media support started bringing up her performance, and that word of mouth managed to get Riseborough one of the most surprising acting nominations in recent memory. There’s a lot of controversy surrounding this nomination (I might write a lengthier post about it, but I actually find this really fascinating) but regardless of your thoughts on the methods of her campaign, Riseborough gives not just a good performance, but the TYPE of performance that the Oscar typically rewards. Due to the nature of Riseborough’s campaign or lack of one, she hasn’t been up against Blanchett or Yeoh this whole season—not because voters didn’t respond to her but because they simply hadn’t seen the film. We are faced with a rather bizarre situation where we genuinely don’t know how voters are going to view Riseborough’s performance when compared to Blanchett’s or Yeoh’s. I don’t think this will happen, and truly hope it doesn’t. Riseborough is a brilliant actor—my favorite film actor working today—and I don’t want her career to be forever defined by THIS movie. As good as she is, it’s far from her most interesting film performance. But still, a massive Oscars upset is always surprising, and this would potentially be the biggest one of all time should it happen.
As for who should have been nominated, I’m going with Tilda Swinton in The Eternal Daughter. This indie gothic family drama might have been too much of a slow burn to find mass appeal, but it was one of my favorite movies of last year, and Swinton gives one of her best performances to date. She plays both Julie Hart, a writer, and her elderly mother Rosalind, as they vacation together at Rosalind’s former family hotel, which is now a hotel. Not only is Swinton incredible in both roles, but for much of the film she’s the only actor on screen, pulling off a dual performance that is as intricate as it is moving.
BEST ACTOR:
Will Win: Brendan Fraser as Charlie—The Whale
Could Win: Austin Butler as Elvis Presley—Elvis
Should Win: Colin Farrell as Pádraic Súilleabháin—The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Have Been Nominated: Song Kang-ho as Ha Sang-hyeon—Broker
Firstly, the Oscar geek in me is excited about this category simply for the fact that it is made up of all first-time nominees. That’s pretty cool, and REALLY rare. The last time an acting category had all first-time nominees was Best Supporting Actress in 1999, almost 25 years ago. And Best Leading Actor specifically hasn’t been made up of all first-time nominees since the 7th Academy Awards, almost 90 years ago. So, pretty cool!
Unfortunately, that’s where my excitement about this category ends. As the awards season has gone along, the three most interesting performances in the lineup have been unable to gain much traction. Mescal is good, Nighy is great, and I truly don’t understand how Farrell is not in the running at all for his career-best work in The Banshees of Inisherin. Instead we’re left with the two worst options battling out as the only real contenders here. Prognosticators are divided between whether Austin Butler or Brendan Fraser will take home the win, and a case could be made for either. Early on in the awards season, Butler seemed to have the momentum. I can definitely understand the appeal behind him—while I do personally rank him towards the bottom of these nominees, I don’t think he's bad in Elvis. Butler’s supporters are primarily impressed by his impersonation of Elvis—his ability to replicate his voice and movement. He does that quite well, but I don’t think Butler’s performance or the movie as a whole really says anything about Elvis or is interested in him as a person as opposed to a public figure. But if I remove my own opinions from the discussion, that is actually a huge advantage for Butler. In 9 of the last 10 years, at least one Oscar-winning performance was for someone playing a real person. This year, Butler is the only such performance even in the conversation, as this year skewed towards original characters. And if Butler does win, it would be far from the worst biographical performance to have taken home an Oscar. I actually had Butler leading for most of the awards season…but then the SAG Awards happened. Brendan Fraser has a stronger narrative behind his campaign, and winning at the SAG Awards was the sort of big win needed for me to concretely predict him as the frontrunner. The Oscars love a comeback story, and Fraser has maybe the best comeback story in Oscars history. Fraser has a lot of goodwill within the industry, and with good reason. It’s impossible to not be happy to see Fraser not just returned, but thriving and beloved. It’s been clear all awards season long that while Butler voters are going to vote for his performance, Fraser voters are voting in part for Brendan Fraser himself—which makes those votes more personal and reliable. But the main reason why Fraser is a frontrunner here is that his performance falls into the most consistent Oscar bait-y trope: physical transformation. As you probably know, in The Whale, Fraser plays Charlie, a 600-pound man, and wore significant prosthetics to do so. It’s the reason why he’s likely going to win an Oscar, and it's also why I truly despise his performance. At this point, there has been a lot of discussion surrounding why fat suits are incredibly problematic, and perhaps more than any other film made so far, The Whale proves why. I found this movie to be really dreadful, cruel, and completely uninterested in the character of Charlie beyond his weight, and is only interested in that weight as a metaphor for all things terrible. The film itself has divided critics and audiences, but many of the film’s detractors still point to Fraser as a highlight, claiming that his performance finds empathy in Charlie that the rest of the film isn’t interested in. I, unfortunately, disagree. For me, the whole film is scene after scene of Fraser playing “fat.” I look forward to supporting Fraser’s career more in the future, but it’s really awful that his comeback has is in a film so exploitative.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Could Win: Angela Bassett as Queen Ramonda—Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Win: Kerry Condon as Siobhán Súilleabháin—The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Have Been Nominated: Dolly de Leon as Abigail—Triangle of Sadness
A
tough one here. On paper, Angela Bassett is going to be the winner. She’s one
of the most respected actors in the world, and has never won an Oscar before.
She’s picked up numerous awards for this performance all season long, and many would claim she is undoubtedly
the frontrunner. But there are two big factors holding me back from feeling confident
about Bassett’s chances. For one thing, she didn’t win the all-important SAG
Award (which went to fellow nominee Jamie Lee Curtis, although that feels like
a fluke more than an indication of hidden support for Curtis). Bassett’s snub
at the SAGs doesn’t exactly hurt her chances, but it means she doesn’t get that
extra indication of support to cement her win as a certainty. The other big factor is that hers is the
first ever performance in a Marvel Cinematic Universe film to be nominated for
an Oscar. The Oscars by and large don’t typically reward MCU films, and while
the Black Panther franchise does seem to be the exception, I do wonder if there
might be a bias when it comes to giving out such a major award. So if not Bassett, then who? SAG winner Curtis really would be
an odd pick just based on the context of her role. Curtis’ co-star Stephanie
Hsu has a role in Everything Everywhere All at Once that is far more
deserving of a win, but she’s been a weirdly inconsistent entity all awards
season. My guess is that awards voters see her as a rising star—this won’t be
her last Oscar nomination and she’ll get a chance to win another time down the
line (although I’d love to see her pull off an Olivia Colman-esque upset). Hong
Chau might have more support than expected, but the awards campaign for The
Whale has been so focused on Fraser that it’s hard to imagine her winning
this year. That leaves Kerry Condon, who just narrowly beats out Hsu as giving
my favorite performance of these nominees. Condon won a BAFTA for her work, which is a big deal (the BAFTA acting categories have overlapped with the Oscars for 18 out of the last 20 acting awards in all four categories). Her
performance is excellent, and I think she might benefit from how the other
acting races have settled. The Academy clearly loved the acting in The
Banshees of Inisherin, but none of the other three nominated actors seem to
have much of a chance in their categories. If voters want The Banshees of
Inisherin to take home any acting awards, their best hope is going to be Condon. It's a tough one, but I think she has the statistics behind her to pull off an upset here.
As for who should have been nominated, I’m not the only person saying that Dolly de Leon was robbed! Before nominations were announced, de Leon’s performance looked like Triangle of Sadness’ best chance at a nomination. The fact that the film picked up surprise nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay, but failed to earn one for its breakout performance was genuinely shocking. I don’t know how anyone could watch this film and not be blown away by her tour de force work.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
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Will Win: Ke Huy Quan as Waymond Wang—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Barry Keoghan as Dominic—The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Brendan Gleeson as Colm Doherty—The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Have Been Nominated: Hassan Madjooni as The Father—Hit the Road
This category is a lot more set in stone than the other acting categories. Ke Huy Quan is going to win Best Supporting Actor. He’s absolutely phenomenal in Everything Everywhere All at Once, and it is clear that voters have responded to his performance in a concrete way. Frankly, the only people who could have competed with Quan were the two actors from The Banshees of Inisherin, but I do think this is a classic case of votes being split. Fans of Banshees are probably divided between Keoghan and Gleeson, which leaves the door wide open for Quan. If one of the Banshees boys does have a chance to overtake Quan, it would be Keoghan, who won at the BAFTAs. Keoghan is great and certainly gives a scene-stealing performance, but I must say I think Gleeson gives maybe the most underrated performance of the year. While he’s picked up numerous nominations, I think the acclaim for the film has been primarily focused on his co-stars…which is exactly what I love about Gleeson’s work. His performance is effortless and understated, but carries a great amount of the film’s emotional heft.
One of the most overlooked films of the year was Panah Panahi’s debut film Hit the Road, a really fascinating take on the road trip film. The phenomenal ensemble cast is led by Hassan Madjooni and Pantea Panahiha as the father and mother of the family at the film’s center. As the father, Madjooni does scene-stealing work which is quite funny until the crucial moments it isn’t. In those times, Madjooni’s work becomes heartbreaking and affecting. If this film had gotten more prominent distribution, the quality of his work definitely could have held its own amongst these nominees.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
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Will Win: Martin McDonagh—The Banshees of Inisherin
Could Win: Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert—Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Martin McDonagh—The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Have Been Nominated: Santiago Mitre and Mariano Llinás—Argentina, 1985
Once again, we have a close competition between Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin, the two films that the Oscars clearly responded to most considering the nominations. What’s tricky is that both of these films not only have a strong screenplay, but have had their screenplays singled out as the best aspect of the film itself. As amazing as the other elements of these films are, where would Everything Everywhere All at Once be without its creativity, ambition, and originality? And where would The Banshees of Inisherin be without its sharp dialogue and insights on morality? Either of these screenplays would win if only they weren’t up against the other…I mean, last year’s winner Belfast would not have stood a chance in this year’s lineup. Frankly, I think Belfast would have lost to ANY of these nominees, let alone the frontrunners—Tár, The Fabelmans, and Triangle of Sadness are also really strong screenplays and make this arguably the most stacked category in the entire ceremony. I feel a bit wary not going with Everything Everywhere, as it definitely could pull off a major awards sweep. But I went with The Banshees of Inisherin only because I think this is the award I think it has the best chances of winning, and I don’t see it going home completely emptyhanded. If voters are like me and are major fans of both films, they’re more likely to want to reward Kwan and Scheinert in the Director category and McDonagh here. I could definitely be wrong, but that’s how I see it playing out. And…speaking of the Best Director category…something cool happened. With the exception of Tony Kushner co-writing The Fabelmans, the individuals nominated here match perfectly with the nominees for Best Director. That’s kind of neat, and speaks to how strong this year was for films from writer/directors.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
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Will Win: Sarah Polley—Women Talking
Could Win: Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell—All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Sarah Polley—Women Talking
Should Have Been Nominated: Emma Donoghue, Sebastián Lelio, and Alice Birch—The Wonder
The screenplay categories pretty much always go to films with an accompanying Best Picture nomination, which means that we can narrow this category down to just three of the nominees. Of the three, I’m really hoping we don’t see Top Gun: Maverick win. Look, I liked Top Gun: Maverick just fine, and I do think it earned many of its craft nominations, but the fact that it’s nominated here honestly feels pretty silly. I think it’s more likely to go to All Quiet on the Western Front or Women Talking. Between the two, the nominations haul would point to All Quiet on the Western Front as being the one with the most favor amongst the Academy, but I’m going to go ahead and pick Women Talking. This is its only nomination outside of the Best Picture category, and it absolutely deserves it. The film’s success relies on its screenplay in a more apparent way than the other nominees, and hopefully the voters who got it into the Best Picture category can give it enough support to win here.
One of the most underrated films of the year was The Wonder. Based on the novel by Emma Donoghue, this film was buried by the Netflix algorithm, but is definitely worth watching. It features some wonderful direction and cinematography, a great performance by Florence Pugh, and of course, one of the best adapted screenplays of the year.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM:
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: No real competition
Should Win: Argentina, 1985
Should Have Been Nominated: Joyland
I’ll make this one quick. All Quiet on the Western Front is nominated for Best Picture. There’s no way it doesn’t win here. There has never been a time that a film has been nominated in both categories and not won this one. It’s All Quiet on the Western Front. Genuinely the easiest prediction of the night.
BUT…this is exactly what makes this category so flawed. Any year that there’s an international film with enough prominence to be on the Oscars’ radar early on, it basically leaves every other film in the dust. And this is particularly notable now that it feels like there’s a spot reserved in the Best Picture lineup one film not in English. But this means that the other worthy nominees don’t have a chance to gain traction, and I think if there had been an opportunity for these films to be objectively considered, it wouldn’t be such a clear race to call. The Quiet Girl wasn’t a film I found particularly interesting, but I do love that it’s the first ever Oscar-nominated film to be primarily in Gaelic. Eo is an experimental gem, told from the perspective of a donkey. Close is a gripping drama from a promising director—it’s a film that I unfairly thought was going to be predictable, but which goes in a really interesting direction at the halfway point. And, of course, there’s Argentina, 1985, which I already talked a bit about in the Original Screenplay section. It’s a great category, and I hope people take a look at each of these contenders despite it being such a non-competitive race.
And those are just the films that made the nominations list. There are numerous films that were on submitted to this category which had not even been released in U.S. theaters when Oscar nomination ballots were due. Pakistan’s submission Joyland, for example, is not going to get a wide release in theaters until April, but if it had a chance to be seen certainly could have gained some word of mouth. The film tells the story of a married man who falls in love with a transgender woman, and was briefly banned in its home country due to its themes. There’s a powerful story surrounding this film both on-screen and off, and I have no doubts it will be included in my “best of” list at the end of next year.
BEST ANIMATED FILM:
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Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Could Win: Marcel the Shell With Shoes On, Turning Red
Should Win: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Should Have Been Nominated: Inu-Oh
Guillermo del Toro is one of the most beloved filmmakers working today, and after he won Best Picture for The Shape of Water—and received a nomination for his next film, Nightmare Alley—he officially became recognized as a favorite of the Academy as well. A while ago, there was a lot of buzz surrounding his film adaptation of the classic tale Pinocchio, with murmurings that it would be in contention for numerous awards, including Best Picture. The hype outside of this category ultimately did not materialize, but it nonetheless is the frontrunner here, thanks to its stunning stop-motion animation, and the prestige director behind it. It has won this award at basically every single ceremony up until this one. It makes sense to think that trend will repeat at the Oscars.
But…is this award set in stone? I do think if Pinocchio doesn’t win it would be a major upset, but I think that this category could pull off a surprise. I personally quite liked Pinocchio, but didn’t see anything in it to put it ahead of anything else in this category. If voters want a popular film, then they would be more likely to turn to Pixar’s Turning Red. If voters want innovation, they’ll more likely turn to Marcel the Shell With Shoes On. Frankly, as good as Pinocchio is, I think it pales in comparison to Puss in Boots: The Last Wish specifically. If you haven’t seen the latest film in the Puss in Boots franchise, I highly recommend it. You don’t need to have seen the previous film, or any of the Shrek films where this character originated. This is very much a standalone story, and it’s one that features the most stunning animation out of this year’s impressive nominees. In fact, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish even bests Pinocchio when it comes to portrayals of the embodiment of death! Pinocchio is a worthy winner, and I am glad that an independent animated film is getting some recognition in this category, it’s just a shame that it has to be in such a strong year.
And the strength in animation is not just limited to this year’s nominees. If the Academy were to think outside of the box they’d find a really wonderful lineup of great animated films to choose from. Netflix had the Jordan Peele-produced Wendell & Wild, the first film from the great Henry Selick in years. It also had Apollo 10 ½, a really charming biographical film from Richard Linklater, which had to fight for consideration due to its use of rotoscopic animation. Phil Tippett’s Mad Godwas never going to have universal appeal due to its non-narrative structure, but it’s a bona fide work of art which was worthy of consideration on its ambition alone. And then there were some fantastic anime films this year, such as Goodbye, Don Glees and Inu-Oh. The latter is a glam-rock opera about a blind biwa player in 14th Century Japan who can communicate with spirits, and was my favorite animated film in contention this year. Even when the lineup is strong, if the Academy continues to not look towards smaller animated films, this category will always feel incomplete.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Will Win: Navalny
Could Win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Should Win: Fire of Love
Should Have Been Nominated: Bad Axe
This is one of my riskiest picks. Most prognosticators are going with All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, and with good reason. It comes from a former Oscar-winner (director Laura Poitras), and it is the best reviewed and most awarded documentary of the year. It’s also just a very good film—telling audiences the story of photographer and activist Nan Goldin in a way that is thorough, engaging, and urgent. But while All the Beauty and the Bloodshed makes a compelling case for why Goldin is important (especially for her recent work in diminishing the Sackler family’s influence in the art community), she simply doesn’t have the same name recognition and immediate urgency as Poitras’ last Oscar winner Citizenfour, which profiled whistleblower Edward Snowden. That’s why I’m going out on a limb and picking Navalny as an upset winner. The film follows Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who famously survived an attempted poisoning. Navalny is a fascinating figure with a compelling story, and most importantly the film features a real “gotcha” moment where a confession is captured during a phone conversation. It’s the sort of lucky moment for any documentarian, and one that will appeal to the massive true crime audience. These two films are both strong and both have received acclaim, but Navalny strikes me as the one with more popular appeal, which is going to be a major factor here. Starting at the 86th Academy Awards, the voting criteria for this category changed in a way that gave an advantage to documentaries more popular outside of their specialized field. “Happier” films or ones with more name recognition and box office success began to have an advantage over more innovative and experimental films. That’s why over the years we’ve seen—for example— 20 Feet from Stardom win over The Act of Killing, Free Solo win over Minding the Gap, and My Octopus Teacher win over literally every other film it was up against. While Navalny is certainly better than My Octopus Teacher, I think its style and form gives it an edge at the Oscars specifically. It’s also why a quirky film like Fire of Love—a delightful feature on married volcanologists Katie and Maurice Krafft—never had a chance here despite massive acclaim.
BEST FILM EDITING:
Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Could Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Have Been Nominated: Beyond the Infinite Two Minutes
As the Oscar glory for Everything Everywhere All at Once has become increasingly inevitable, the question becomes just HOW dominant it’s going to be. Of the ten categories it is nominated in, there’s at least a chance it could win in all ten of them, and if its popularity can translate into a full Oscars sweep, then it will definitely pick up Best Film Editing in the process. To be fair, this category hasn’t had its winner overlap with Best Picture since Argo in 2012, but that’s only because this category tends to favor more technically ambitious films than Best Picture does. In this case, Everything Everywhere All at Once has the advantage of being a Best Picture frontrunner which features fast-paced, technically ambitious sequences that this category responds to. It’s not just the best film editing of the year, it’s some of the best film editing of the decade, and the film utilizes brilliant editing to account for its much smaller budget when compared to action films on a similar scale. It won a top prize at the ACE Eddie Awards, which also bodes well for its chances in this category.
But, as you can see, despite the solid case one can make for Everything Everywhere All at Once winning here, I’ve still picked Top Gun: Maverick. This film also won a top prize at the ACE Eddie Awards (which splits feature films by genre) and similarly features intricate technical sequences that this category responds to. The editing in Maverick is good, although not nearly as jaw-dropping as in Everything Everywhere All at Once, but there’s one distinct reason I’ve given it the edge here: the Best Sound category. Film Editing has a clear link to Best Sound. I mentioned that this category last overlapped with Best Picture in 2012. Well, ever since 2012, the winner for Best Film Editing ALWAYS won in either Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, or both. Those two categories were merged into one “Best Sound” category two years ago, and both years, the same film won for Film Editing and Sound. That link is too consistent and too strong to ignore. And this year, Everything Everywhere All at Once did not get a nomination for Best Sound, and Top Gun: Maverick did. If Everything Everywhere All at Once wins Best Film Editing it has broken a pattern ten years in the making. It’s certainly possible, and if it happens it’ll affect my predictions next year. Until then, I’m sticking with Top Gun: Maverick here.
I mentioned how much I loved the film editing in Everything Everywhere All at Once, but if any film gave it a run for its money this year it was Beyond the Infinite Two Minutes. This micro-budget Japanese film is one of the most underrated films of the year and the editing is not only incredible, but was integral to the success of the film as a whole. The film follows a group of friends who find that they can communicate via video chat with themselves two minutes in the future. The film utilizes clean edits to not only appear like it takes place in one take, but needs precision to keep the time loop consistent on the screens within the screens. It’s a monumental task, and if the editing had not been done so well, the film would have fallen apart.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
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Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: Elvis
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Have Been Nominated: The Banshees of Inisherin
One of the biggest surprises of this Oscar season was All Quiet on the Western Front. The German-language film was released on Netflix without much fanfare, and only emerged as an awards season powerhouse late in the season. Its late surge paid off and it picked up multiple craft nominations, but in most categories it seems like it’s playing second fiddle to more high profile films, such as Top Gun: Maverick or Everything Everywhere All at Once. In this category, though, it gets to be the big dog. The awards campaign for the film has focused on its technical achievement, and this is where it’s most likely to pay off. It helps that the cinematography is gorgeous. Every frame looks like a painting, and the use of light highlights both the expansive landscapes of war and the intimate danger surrounding the people at its center. Its only major competition here is going to be Elvis. Another film with a handful of technical nominations, the cinematography here is perhaps not as striking as that in All Quiet on the Western Front, but it’s a bit flashier and more colorful and is definitely a contender. It’s also worth noting that Elvis’ cinematographer Mandy Walker is unfortunately only the third woman ever nominated in this category (after Rachel Morrison and Ari Wegner) and would be the first woman to win—a bittersweet but deserved achievement.
While The Banshees of Inisherin has had a great awards season, I’ve always been surprised that the love for the film never extended to the cinematography. That was one of the most impressive elements of the film for me. I thought that Ben Davis’ work captured the beauty of the fictional island of Inisherin while still making it feel haunting and foreboding. The choices of angles contributed greatly to the storytelling, and for a film with such amazing dialogue, its amazing how many pivotal moments are told by the camerawork alone. It’s stunning work, which was perhaps overshadowed by the film’s other strong elements, but which definitely could have been a competitor in this category.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
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Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: Babylon, but any of the nominees could pull off an upset
Should Win: The Fabelmans
Should Have Been Nominated: Bigbug
At this year’s Art Directors Guild Awards (which presents awards based on genre), the only one of this year’s Oscar nominees to emerge triumphant was Babylon. It was a good sign for the film’s chances, and instantly put it at the top of many prognosticator’s lists. On top of its big ADG Awards win, it simply has the aesthetic that the Academy tends to go for. Once considered a Best Picture contender, this category is now Babylon’s best chance at taking home Oscar gold. But while a win for Babylon wouldn’t particularly surprise me, I am less sure of its chances than others. Of the nominees, Babylon is the only film in this category without an accompanying Best Picture nomination, and that’s a pretty big deal. The winner in this category has also been a Best Picture nominee nine times out of the last ten years. That’s pretty consistent as far as track records go, and it’s enough to make me look elsewhere for my pick. The problem is that a case could be made for any of the other nominees. The low nominations haul of Avatar: The Way of Water might indicate that the Academy doesn’t really care about this film, but it just might dominate in the technical awards it IS in the running for, including this one. All Quiet on the Western Front similarly has an enigmatic presence this season—I don’t see it winning much, but it might overperform and win everything and be the most awarded film of the year. In a just world, the winner here would be The Fabelmans, which has the most understated work but is beautifully put together. The film looks great, but the design here contributes to the story arguably more than any other film in contention. A case really could be made for any of these, but I’m just going to settle on Elvis. It’s got a lot of design, and I do think Production Design is probably its strongest element. Elvis really is the “well, this will do” of this awards season, which might just pay off in such a stacked category.
My pick for Production Design is a little out there. I’m going with Bigbug. Director Jean-Pierre Jeunet is one of cinema’s best visual artists, winning acclaim for stunning films like Amélie, The City of Lost Children, and A Very Long Engagement. It was disappointing that he didn’t make a film for nine years. It was even more disappointing when that film was quietly released on Netflix with no promotion. It was even MORE disappointing when I watched it and…understood why. The film was lacking the profundity and storytelling mastery that defines Jeunet’s best work. But it’s clear that, even in this lesser work, Jeunet has an eye for visual whimsy and wonder. It’s a film worth seeing for the design elements alone—a technicolor dystopia that is original and memorable.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Could Win: No real competition
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Have Been Nominated: Troll
It really can’t be overstated just how much Avatar: The Way of Water underperformed when it came to nominations. It was thought to be a potential Oscars powerhouse, but only picked up four nominations. For reference, the original Avatar received over twice as many, so this sequel was definitely a disappointment. But even with that track record, there’s no way it doesn’t win in this category. The whole point of this film IS the visual effects, and while some of the other nominees might have been contenders in other years, it’s hard to imagine anyone else emerging triumphant. And yet…for my “Should Win” pick, I’m just going to have to be contrarian and not pick Avatar: The Way of Water. I’ve never understood the appeal of this film, in part because I don’t find the world THAT interesting. The visuals of this movie felt like a glorified screensaver to me, and when SO much money was spent on the effects for this film I’m just expecting more (although I did like the space whale…I’m not a monster). So just to be difficult, I’m going to say Top Gun: Maverick should win here. It’s another film I didn’t love as much as everyone else, but the action is pretty much above reproach and I do think the film successfully makes you FEEL like the events on screen are actually happening. That’s partially due to the cinematography and the stunt work, but the visual effects make a significant contribution as well.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:
Will Win: The Whale
Could Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis
Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Have Been Nominated: Neptune Frost
There are a lot of prognosticators who I see picking Black Panther: Wakanda Forever to win here. The work is indeed impressive and Oscar-worthy, and helps define the worlds of both Wakanda and Talokan. But I truly wish I could share the optimism of these prognosticators. The unfortunate reality is that the category of Best Makeup & Hairstyling has become essentially synonymous with Best Fatsuit. The five most recent winners in this category have all not only featured fatsuits, but have staked their entire wins on them. It’s one of the cinema’s most reprehensible trends but I see no reason to think it won’t happen again this year. In fact, this year the Oscars love fatsuits more than ever, as they are at the center of three of this year’s nominees: The Batman, Elvis, and The Whale. And out of all these films, it’s The Whale which has the most prominent makeup. This movie might as well have been called Fatsuit The Movie. I would be incredibly relieved if anything else won, but I would be shocked if it’s not The Whale.
The main problem with fatsuits is, of course, how incredibly dehumanizing they are—but frankly I also find them woefully uninteresting. Regardless of whether the craft is impressive or not, there’s just no creativity in them. Contrast that with a movie like Neptune Frost. This Afrofuturist sci-fi love story may not have been a box office sensation, but it was one of the most innovative films of the year, with some really cool design elements. And the Makeup & Hairstyling is a great example of how this part of filmmaking can be used to create a world and tell a story. The look of this film is unforgettable, and an example of the sort of artistry that this category has failed to recognize for too many years.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Have Been Nominated: Corsage
More often than not, this category overlaps with the Costume Designers Guild Awards, making it a great place to turn to when trying to predict this category. The only problem is that the CDGAs divide their awards by category, meaning we’re left with two winners competing against each other at the Oscars. In the Excellence in Period Film category, the CDGAs went with Elvis (over fellow Oscar nominees Babylon and Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris). And in the Excellence in Fantasy Film category, the CDGAs went with Everything Everywhere All at Once (over fellow Oscar nominee Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). While it’s certainly possible for one of the other films to pull an upset, it’s fair to say that the two CDGA winners are the frontrunners now. From there, it becomes a question of instinct. The Academy has a clear penchant for period films and they tend to dominate in this category, which is great news for Elvis, and why I’ve picked it to win this time around. But if these predictions have revealed anything it’s that we should never count out Everything Everywhere All at Once. While its costume design is far more contemporary than what the Academy tends to favor, the support for the film overall might encourage Oscar voters to consider the film more carefully here. If they do, they’ll see not only were there some standout individual costumes—like those worn by the fabulously styled villain Jobu Topaki—but there’s great design elements here in costumes you wouldn’t expect. Even the most “normal” clothes worn in this film are distinct and tell us a lot about these characters. For a film with some of the most complete worldbuilding of the year, the costumes deserve recognition for how much they contribute to that aesthetic.
I’m always excited when Oscar categories deviate from what we expect of them, so it’s nice to see a category without big floofy period dresses. But…then I look at the costumes in the Austrian film Corsage and think, “but these are REALLY good!” It’s the exact sort of work the Academy typically takes note of, and perhaps they would have if the film had a slightly higher profile. These costumes are gorgeous and elegant, and manage to remain interesting while still preserving the rules of their historical era.
BEST SOUND:
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Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Could Win: Elvis
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Have Been Nominated: Everything Everywhere All at Once
In my predictions for Best Film Editing, I already talked about the link between that category and Best Sound. There are only two nominees here which are also recognized in Best Film Editing—Top Gun: Maverick and Elvis—and as such, I see them as the frontrunners here. This category tends to recognize fast-paced action sequences and war films, so Top Gun: Maverick seems like a good pick (and the fact that I think it has an edge over Elvis in the editing category definitely helps). Still, the mere fact that Elvis is about music might mean that Oscar voters will want to recognize it in the sound category. A tough one, but I’m nonetheless happy with Maverick winning, which actually uses sound mixing beautifully. Many people came away from that film saying it FELT like they were flying the planes with the characters. The sound had a lot to do with that.
This is one of the only categories where Everything Everywhere All at Once was not nominated…which is wild because the use of sound in that film was extraordinary! Think of any of the amazing montage sequences in that film. They only work because of sound! The film defines its tonal shifts into drastically different worlds through sound, it maintains its frenetic energy through sound, the whole sensibility of the film is defined by sound! As many nominations as the film has, it was without a doubt worthy of this one as well.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
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Will Win: The Fabelmans
Could Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Have Been Nominated: Decision to Leave
In 13 of the last 15 years, the winner in this category has also received a nomination for Best Picture. That means it’s probably not going to be Babylon, the only non-Best Picture nominee in the bunch. Several films not in the English language have been nominated in this category before, but the last time one of them won was Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon over 20 years ago, so it’s probably not going to be All Quiet on the Western Front. My favorite score out of the year was The Banshees of Inisherin—Carter Burwell’s haunting score was folksy without being cutesy and featured one of the most memorable musical refrains of the year. But, sadly, Burwell is unfortunately a bit of a longshot, as it looks like this category will be between The Fabelmans and Everything Everywhere All at Once—a sort of showdown between the old and the new. The Fabelmans score comes from John Williams—one of the most beloved composers in movie history. Williams has actually been nominated for more Oscars than any other living individual. The partnership of Williams and Spielberg is one of the greatest in film history, and him winning here would feel especially appropriate for such a personal film. But Williams faces some major competition from Son Lux’s score for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Compared to Williams’ classic work, Lux’s score is new and out there—blending genres and unafraid to be bold and loud. It’s not typical Oscar fare for this category, but neither is the film as a whole, and this category might be a good bellwether to see whether Everything Everywhere All at Once is due for a complete awards sweep.
One of the saddest oversights at this year's Oscars is the lack of nominations for South Korean film Decision to Leave. Its omission in Best International Film was really surprising, but it deserved recognition in multiple other categories as well. One such category was Best Original Score. The film is a strong thriller that received more than one comparison to Hitchcock, and a big reason is the really lush score. Listen to the score, and then check out this fantastic film which sadly was not on the Academy's radar.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Could Win: “Life Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Should Have Been Nominated: “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Dianne Warren is one of the oddest figures in Oscars history. This year marks her 14th nomination without a win, and she’s picked up 8 of those nominations in the last 9 years. At this point, they might as well just reserve one nomination for Dianne Warren. But what’s so strange about her repeated nominations is that, recently, they’re from movies that nobody has ever heard of. Her last four nominations have come from the movies Breakthrough, Four Good Days, The Life Ahead, and Tell It Like a Woman, and I genuinely challenge ANYBODY to tell me (without looking it up) which of those came out this year. She actually will take home an Oscar on Sunday—as she’s receiving an Academy Honorary Award—but will definitely not get one here. I also think this is one of the few categories Everything Everywhere All at Once doesn’t have a shot in. I could be surprised, but the song “This Is a Life” by Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski is a bit too out-there for the Academy. And while Byrne and Mitski certainly do have significant music industry clout, they have to compete against superstars Lady Gaga and Rihanna, who might take home trophies on name recognition alone. The fact that Lady Gaga has already won in this category means that I’m favoring Rihanna, a first-time nominee for her work on “Life Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. It’s a rousing power ballad, which was also famously written in tribute to the late Chadwick Boseman—a fact that will certainly resonate with Oscar voters.
But
despite the strong case for “Lift Me Up”…I’m going with “Naatu Naatu” from RRR.
And if you’ve seen the movie you’ll understand why. What I think is crucial
about the voting for this category, is that it’s not just supposed to be, “Vote
for the song you like best.” Voters are supposed to take into consideration how
the film is utilized in the film. There have been some great songs nominated in
the past which simply play over the credits. But “Naatu Naatu” is not only a
part of RRR, it’s one of the most memorable parts of RRR (which
is saying something considering this is a movie where a man, essentially,
punches another man with a tiger). As much star power as there is behind the
other nominees in this category, it’s going to be hard for any of them to top “Naatu
Naatu” when the songs are performed live. RRR was one of the biggest
hits of the year, and a film that many at once saw grabbing nominations for
Best Picture and Best Director, as well as several craft awards. It failed to
earn those nominations, but that just means that this film’s significant fan
base is going to be out in full force with this category. I’m predicting it to
win not only because I think it will, but because I want to live in a world
where it’s an Oscar-winning song.
One of the most surprising snubs this year was that "Ciao Papa" from Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio did not score a nomination in this category. There are several musical numbers in Pinocchio, and I found most of them to be fairly forgettable, bit "Ciao Papa" was really lovely. Clearly the standout number, it's a sweet and simple ballad that is a worthy entry in the great pantheon of heartbreaking musical tearjerkers from animated films. It's lovely, and captures the sweetest sentiments of the film as a whole.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
Will Win: An Irish Goodbye
Could Win: Le pupille
Should Have Been Nominated: A Short Story
It’s been a busy couple of months for me, as I’ve been in rehearsals for, and then opened a new play (it’s called War Dreamer and if you’re in NYC you should see it because it’s really great!) I’ve loved every moment of putting this show together, but it does mean that I was unable to make it to theaters to see the Live Action Shorts. I still was able to see 3 of the 5 nominees (as well as all of the nominees in the other short film categories) but sadly, wasn’t able to see The Red Suitcase or An Irish Goodbye. I will say I did like the three nominated shorts that I did see, but didn’t love any of them enough to have a clear favorite, which is why this is the only category I’m not choosing a “Should Win” for. Still, without having seen the films, I feel pretty comfortable making a prediction here. Most prognosticators are pointing to Le pupille for the win. From acclaimed director Alice Rohrwacher, and produced by the great Alfonso Cuarón, the short film certainly has the most high-profile team behind it, and has received a considerable marketing push. It’s a charming film, and I wouldn’t exactly be surprised if it won. But I’m instead going to pick An Irish Goodbye based purely on the fact that it’s the only nominee that’s in the English language. You see…Live Action Short tends to be one of the most international categories, and typically more than half of the nominees are in languages other than English. Yet, despite this, the winner is pretty consistently one of the films in English. 32 films in languages other than English have been nominated in the past ten years, and only two have won (and one of those years it was only because none of the nominees were in English). Considering the Academy’s bias towards films with subtitles, it makes sense that this trend would translate to the short films as well. And despite having only seen the trailer for An Irish Goodbye (it looks good!) I feel confident enough to say that it will win.
I saw several great short films this year which could have been recognized, but my absolute favorite was A Short Story from director Bi Gan. Bi Gan, best known for his feature Long Day’s Journey into Night, has made something truly special. A true fairy tale, the film is ostensibly about a black cat on a quiet to discover what the most precious thing in the world is, but that simple story is really just a canvas for Bi Gan’s amazing cinematic imagery. It’s a weird little gem, but it’s a short film that leaves an impression and is truly magical.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Could Win: Ice Merchants
Should Win: My Year of Dicks
Should Have Been Nominated: Amok
The nominees for the animated short category tend to be really wonderful—creative and innovative and fascinating. But once those nominees are selected and this category is opened up to the Academy as a whole, they tend to opt towards the safest or most commercial of the picks. That doesn’t mean that the winners are bad, it just means that they are safe. This explains recent wins for films like Bao, Hair Love, and If Anything Happens I Love You over more indie fare. This year, the most commercial pick is undoubtedly The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse, based on a bestselling children’s book and distributed by Apple TV+. It dominated at the recent Annie Awards, which showed that the industry is standing behind the project. It’s also far and away the least interesting of the nominees, but its sweet and charmingly-animated, and the exact sort of pick this category too frequently looks to. But if voters can look past the name recognition of The Boy, the Mole, etc… and its voice cast, I could also see Ice Merchants sneaking in. The animation here is stunning, and it deals in accessible themes of parenthood and loss that voters have responded to in this category before. On content alone, I could see it having a surprising amount of support.
The
other nominees have a more difficult path to winning. The Flying Sailor
comes from animators Wendy Tilby and Amanda Forbis, who have two prior
nominations (plus one for Tilby on her own) with no wins—that pattern will
likely repeat itself. The superbly titled An Ostrich Told Me the World is
Fake and I Think I Believe It is a student film, which tend to be nominees
but not winners in the shorts categories, and this one in particular might be
too experimental to win. That leaves us with the even more superbly titled My
Year of Dicks. It’s not just my favorite of this year’s short films, I
think it’s one of the best films of the year of any length. Based on Pamela
Ribon’s memoir, the film chronicles five times that Pamela tried to lose her
virginity as a teenager. It’s funny, it’s weird, and more than anything it’s
unbelievably honest—you feel like you know the teenage Pamela minutes into the
film. You feel like you truly understand her by the film’s end. It’s personal
and visceral, and provides an artistic statement more distinct than arguably
any other film nominated this year. I’m truly hoping I’m wrong and that Oscar
voters see what I see in this gem. But, truthfully, I think it’s just too weird
and the subject matter might be too off-putting for the older Academy voters.
If it wins, I’ll be cheering, but I’ll also be shocked. It’s simply too out-there
for the Oscars’ sensibilities.
And speaking of being “too out-there for the Oscars’ sensibilities,” let’s talk about Amok. This Hungarian short is a musical about a man haunted by an evil psycho killer gnome who is set out to destroy him and everyone he loves. It’s really weird. It’s also really cool, and the animation itself is some of the most original and vibrant I’ve ever seen. This film has picked up lots of accolades already—notably winning the top prize at the prestigious Annecy Film Festival, and gaining a nomination for best short film at the Annie Awards. It was, perhaps unsurprisingly, too strange for the Oscars, but director Balázs Turai is one to watch for sure.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:
Will Win: Stranger at the Gate
Could Win: The Elephant Whisperers
Should Win: Haulout
Should Have Been Nominated: Shut Up and Paint
Since there aren’t a lot of precursor awards ceremonies that recognize short films, these categories can be particularly difficult to predict. But I nonetheless feel confident in my pick of Stranger at the Gate. The film tells the story of a Marine who, after returning home, copes with PTSD as well as the consequences of his own Islamophobia. It’s powerful and topical, and the sort of subject matter that is frequently rewarded in this category. More importantly, it has a strong team behind it—most notably acclaimed activist Malala Yousafzai who serves as an executive producer. That clout is certainly going to help the Academy take note, and gives this film a distinct edge. Still, nothing is certain in a category like this, so let’s consider the other nominees. The most surprising winner for me would be How Do You Measure a Year? Filmmaker Jay Rosenblatt asked his daughter Ella a series of the same questions every year on her birthday for several years—so we watch both her and her relationship with her dad evolve during the film’s runtime. It’s interesting, but very much a novelty premise, and this category does tend to be more traditionally-minded when it comes to winners. I could see The Margaret Mitchell Effect taking it, if only because it’s distributed by Netflix, which has done well in this category in the past. It’s an excellent profile of a fascinating historical figure, but of all the nominees in this category, feels the most “educational,” which I think could hurt its chances. I was personally the most partial to the remaining two nominees—coincidentally they are both about large, tusked mammals. My favorite in this category is Haulout, about a marine biologist whose lengthy observations of walruses offer bleak implications for the climate change crisis. It’s beautifully filmed—powerful, poetic, and confident. But it’s not as much of a crowd-pleaser as The Elephant Whisperers, which is the film I think is most likely to compete against Strangers at the Gate. The film (also distributed by Netflix which, as I already said, is a help) follows Bomman and Belli, an Indian couple that have become caretakers to orphaned baby elephants. It’s a great story—and a heartwarming one at that—which is impossible not to love. If the Academy votes with their brains, the pedigree and political importance of Stranger at the Gate has the win. But if they vote with their hearts, The Elephant Whisperers is certainly a contender.
My favorite short documentary of the year was Shut Up and Paint, which made the Oscars’ shortlist but sadly couldn’t secure a nomination. The film is a profile of Titus Kaphar, an acclaimed artist who tries to maintain is identity and integrity in an industry that is uncomfortable with the intensity of his activism. It’s a compelling portrait of an artist at an impasse—and it’s difficult to watch him grapple with the prejudices he faces, but thrilling to watch him create such a strong film in retaliation. There’s a vibrancy to Shup Up and Paint that is incredibly powerful, and it’s the exact sort of project that shows why short form documentary is so essential.
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