Oscar Predictions 2015 Part II

Now that I've discussed the major awards in Part I, it's time to discuss what many view as the sort of second tier awards. Which really isn't fair--these are all pretty incredible achievements and are just as fascinating to consider and be aware of as the major awards. Although, admittedly, I guess I contribute to their second tier status because I have much less to say about all of these. This time, I'm just going to say who I think WILL win, rather than also always choosing who should win and who should be nominated. Or, in the case of sound mixing, who should not have been nominated.

I'm talking about Interstellar. Interstellar shouldn't have been nominated.

Best Animated Feature Film:
Everyone is still reeling from The Lego Movie not being nominated here, and its exclusion here has certainly left the category wide open. The frontrunner by a hair is currently How to Train Your Dragon 2, but this is hardly secure, and either of the two beautifully crafted indie projects Song of the Sea or The Tale of Princess Kaguya might just gather enough votes to pull an upset win. I personally am keeping my fingers crossed for one of my favorite movies of the year, Big Hero 6 to take the crown. And then there is The Boxtrolls which...is the fifth nominee. It's probably good.

"An...film...I...appreciate...nice"--A.O. Scott, from his review of The Boxtrolls

Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

 Best Foreign Language Film:
This race has two definite frontrunners. At one point, it looked like Ida, from Poland, was the runaway favorite, but in recent months, Russia's entry Leviathan has steadily gained popularity and is now the more likely of the two. Either has a chance, but I'm predicting Leviathan on instinct.
Will Win: Leviathan (Russia)

Best Documentary Feature Film:
The Edward Snowden documentary Citizenfour has been making waves ever since it first premiered and has not lost momentum since. At one point, it faced some competition from the Roger Ebert documentary Life Itself, but with that failing to grab a nomination in a surprise snub, Citizenfour is the far and away favorite.
Will Win: Citizenfour

Best Original Song:
Many months ago, the song "Lost Stars" from the underrated gem Begin Again was once the frontrunner in this category, and it's a really great song. But it has faded from the spotlight and another great song has taken its place as the frontrunner: "Glory" from Selma. Selma's only nomination other than Best Picture, it seems inconceivable that "Glory" will not take home this prize, and it's definitely deserved. "Glory" manages to perfectly tie in the film to present day events--it's a powerful and vibrant song which works both as a song in the context of the film, and as a song in its own right. I can't wait to see it performed during the ceremony. And, it'll be nice for Selma to go home with at least one award given how little attention the Academy paid to it.

But...while I love "Glory" very much, it's actually not my favorite song of this group. That would belong to "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" by Glen Campbell, which comes from a documentary about Campbell, which followed him on his final tour as he battles with the starting effects of Alzheimer's. The song is the last song he'll ever write, and is about his own struggle with this disease. It is heartbreaking, bittersweet, poignant. It's a song that makes you well up when you listen to it. "Glory" is a call to action, but "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" is just as effective as a sweet and emotional heavy ballad. It'll probably be "Glory," but if "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" pulls off a surprise win (which it definitely could) it will certainly be deserved.
Will Win: "Glory" from Selma
Could/Should Win: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" from Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me

Best Original Score:
Everyone (including me) talks about how the Academy likes to honor those who are overdue. And few are as overdue as the composer Alexandre Desplat, who has been nominated for this award six times before this year. And this year, he is nominated twice, for both The Imitation Game and The Grand Budapest Hotel. Desplat is very likely to win this award, the only question is for which film. And it really is a toss up. I'd give a slight edge to The Grand Budapest Hotel, but we'll see. Of course, the true best score of the year actually belongs to Birdman. Composer Antonio Sanchez's almost entirely percussive score was deemed ineligible for a nomination due to a technicality (read: bullshit) which is a shame because rarely has a score ever so perfectly fit a film. That score is brilliant, and there's really nothing like it. It leaves an impression on you in a way none of the nominated scores do.
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Have Been Nominated: Birdman 

At Wes Anderson's insistence, the entire score to Grand Budapest was performed by this up-and-coming Portland band.

Best Production Design:
What does "Production Design" mean? It means, basically, the entire look of the film. Production designer oversee the entirety of the art department, and coordinate all of the design aspects. And, of the nominees, the bright and vibrant The Grand Budapest Hotel certainly stands out. Considering how distinct a look Wes Anderson's films always have, the fact that no film of his has ever won this award is pretty shocking--he's overdue. The Grand Budapest Hotel has been his most Oscar-friendly film and, if my predictions are right, it will certainly pay off for Anderson in multiple categories on Sunday.
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Cinematography:
Birdman is in the running for a lot of awards, but this is the only one it's actually guaranteed to win. Birdman's cinematographer Emanuel Lubezki won last year for his groundbreaking work on Gravity, and is the clear frontrunner to win again this year. Now, everyone knows I love Birdman and I hope it is showered with awards, but...even with as great as the cinematography was...I am kind of rooting for an upset here. My favorite cinematography this year actually came from Mr. Turner. And not just because I want to hear someone (hopefully John Travolta) say cinematographer Dick Pope's name again. The cinematography is beautiful. Some shots of the film look like they were taken right out of a Turner painting. Birdman will win and its cinematography is certainly worthy, I just wish that it was in a different year so that Mr. Turner could be recognized too.

One of the many spectacular shots from the gorgeous Mr. Turner

Will Win: Birdman
Should Win: Mr. Turner

Best Film Editing:
Those who take these awards show prediction things seriously will often talk about the Best Editing category. Because many claim that winning Best Picture and winning Best Editing go hand in hand. I think the connection is much more tenuous. In this article which talks about the connection it says that "of the 61 films that have won Best Picture Oscars since 1952, 32 have won the editing statuette as well." It says this as if that's a high percentage...but it's actually less than 53%. And in the last ten Oscars, only for of the Best Film Editing winners have also won Best Picture. And some editing winners, like The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and The Bourne Ultimatum weren't even nominated for Best Picture. so, the connection is not as important to me as it is to some. And I think we're going to see a break in the categories this year too. Of the two films in contention to win Best Picture, Birdman is surprisingly not nominated. And while Boyhood is nominated, this award tends to go to films with a much faster pace which Boyhood definitely lacks. Some are calling this award for Boyhood solely on the basis of its Best Picture frontrunner status, but I just don't see it. I think this award will go to American Sniper or Whiplash. Between the two, I hope it goes to Whiplash. Not just because it's a much better film, but because the editing itself is more impressive. The last scene alone should win this film the Oscar--an impressive ten minute drum solo was edited down from, I believe, 23 hours of footage to make what still looked like a single cohesive performance. And what an exciting performance at that! But, throughout the film, the fact that we believe Miles Teller is a professional drummer is pretty extraordinary, and accomplished almost solidly through editing. Boyhood seems like the odds-on favorite to win, but I just simply don't see it winning over Whiplash in terms of editing.
Will Win: Whiplash

Best Sound Editing:
The frontrunner here is American Sniper. Military films tend to do very well here, so American Sniper definitely seems like the frontrunner. But, there's a chance that Birdman might actually win, especially if the controversy surrounding American Sniper catches up to it and Birdman can ride a goodwill wave to the win. Who really knows, this is kind of an unpredictable category, but for now, the safer bet is American Sniper.
Will Win: American Sniper

Best Sound Mixing:
So, when I posted my reaction to the nominees, I spent a lot of time talking about the sound mixing for Interstellar. And how terrible it is. And...I don't want to go into that right now but let's just say HOLY CRAP THE SOUND MIXING IN INTERSTELLAR SUCKS HOW THE HELL IS IT NOMINATED FOR AN ACADEMY AWARD I'M SO ANGRY!??!?!

So, Interstellar won't win. American Sniper has a chance of winning, but the frontrunner, and the film that SHOULD win is Whiplash. This is a film where sound is front and center. And not just any sound, LOUD sound. Loud sound which is used to actually tell the story. So, sound mixing is crucial--it has to be just present enough. If the drumming is too soft, we won't feel its effect and the stakes won't feel as high. If the drumming is too loud, it gets annoying rather than exciting. Whiplash's sound is balanced perfectly. As much as Interstellar's sound mixing is bad, Whiplash shows how sound mixing should be done.
Will Win: Whiplash
Should Win: Interste...HAHA JUST KIDDING THAT WOULD BE THE FUCKING WORST THING IN THE WORLD

Best Visual Effects:
This is another category that's kind of up in the air. Interstellar is certainly the frontrunner, but Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and Guardians of the Galaxy definitely have a shot here. X-Men: Days of Future Past could make a grab at the win based on that now famous Quicksilver scene alone. The only one I don't see winning is Captain America: The Winter Soldier (although that is a fantastic film overall). Interstellar is the frontrunner, but this category could definitely have an upset. And I'm not just saying that because I hate Interstellar and its shitty sound mixing. I am in the middle of writing a giant blog post outlining why I don't like this movie, so definitely look for that to be posted soon. But, in the meantime, I do grudgingly give it the edge here.

Although, a quick note, while I don't think it would have or should have won this category, I was really hoping that Birdman would get a nomination in this category. Granted, there aren't a lot of visual effects, but there are a few (the giant bird, the fireball, the flying, the moving objects) and all of them are done exceedingly well, and fit seamlessly into the more realism-based world of the film. I was impressed by them, and thought it should have at least gotten some recognition.

Does Interstellar have a giant cyborg bird? That's what I thought.

Will Win: Interstellar
Will Also Win the Miles Purinton for Worst Sound Mixing Ever: Interstellar
Should Have Been Nominated (for Best Visual Effects, not the worst sound mixing thing): Birdman

Costume Design:
The fancy period dress of Mr. Turner is what my gut is telling me here, but so far, the awards seem to be going for The Grand Budapest Hotel. Which would be great. They're bright, colorful, really distinct, and work so perfectly in the world of the film. As beautiful as the costumes in Mr. Turner are, I'd love to see a non-period piece film win this year. So, if everyone's predicting that The Grand Budapest Hotel will win this, I'm more than happy to go along with that.
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Tilda Swinton shows off both the costume design AND the makeup and hairstyling for The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
This one should really be a no-brainer. Steve Carell has a prosthetic nose, and Tilda Swinton has old-age makeup, but...Guardians of the Galaxy is a movie that, by its design, features much more complete and innovative makeups which are used more prominently throughout the entire film. Consider Drax the Destroyer.

For your consideration

Looking at him, you probably think that his skin is created through some computer effect. Nope. Makeup. It's all makeup. That's impressive. And Oscar-worthy.
Will Win: Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Live Action Short Film:
As always, I highly recommend people seek out the nominated short films if they ever get a chance. It's always a really good selection, and these categories can offer some of the absolute best films the year has to offer. This year, of the Live Action shorts, most things I've read online have given the win to a Northern Irish film called Boogaloo and Graham about two brothers and their pet chickens. It's a cute film, but...I can't see it winning. It just doesn't have the same staying power as some of the other films. Last year, everyone seemed to predicting this win for a film called The Voorman Project and I went against the grain and chose a film called Helium based on instinct, and I'm going to do the same thing again this year. It won't be Boogaloo and Graham. It will, and certainly should, be a film called The Phone Call, a really touching and well-executed film starring Sally Hawkins, and co-starring Jim Broadbent in a voice-over performance. Hawkins is simply incredible--her work in this one film is better than most of the acting nominees in the regular categories. And the film itself is great too. I simply can't imagine it not winning.
Will Win: The Phone Call

Sally Hawkins gives a masterful performance in The Phone Call

Best Animated Short Film:

This category is a lot tougher. The five selections are all very strong, and all for different reasons. Frankly, I could see any one of these films winning. Disney's selection, Feast, has the brand recognition, and is a cute sentimental story, but to me is certainly the most lightweight of the offerings and doesn't really stand up in the lineup of nominees. A Dutch short called A Simple Life, is by far the shortest offering, at only two minutes long, but it's really great, and tells all the story it needs to in those two minutes. You want to watch it over and over again, and it definitely has my favorite premise of the five films. But, its length might work against it. Then there's a film called The Dam Keeper which is beautiful and engaging and tells the most complete and conventional story of the five...but is kind of off-kilter and bizarre (as most films with anthropomorphic animals tend to be) and that might work against it with the generally stuffy Academy. Although it's probably my favorite of the five. If I had to guess which way the Academy will go, I'd guess it will either be Me and My Moulton--a film by animator and director Torill Kove, who adopts a documentary feel not unlike in the movie Persepolis to talk about her time growing up in Norway. It's cute, whimsical, and very well-written. But in terms of animation alone, it pales in comparison to The Bigger Picture, whose animation is actually painted full-size on walls. It's fascinating to watch, and its discussion of grand themes like death and family are certainly relatable. If I had to choose one film, my guess is that The Bigger Picture will win, but really, any of the five have a chance.
Will Win: The Bigger Picture

Animator Daisy Jacobs paints one of the stills that make up The Bigger Picture

Best Documentary Short Subject: 
I did not see these. I was going to, but then I read about them. They all sound very good. But they also all sound very, very depressing. Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 is about the workers at a suicide call center for veterans. White Earth is a movie about how, essentially, the American dream does not exist and how people endanger themselves and their families by taking on dangerous jobs in the oil industry in an attempt to stay above the poverty line. Then there's a film called Joanna about a woman who is diagnosed with cancer and is given three months to live but promises her 5 year-old son she will stay alive as long as she can. If you think that's probably the worst one, then you haven't heard of Our Curse, which is about the parents of an infant who suffers from a rare condition where if the baby falls asleep he dies, so the parents have to be on constant watch in order to ensure their infant does not decide to take a nap and is killed. Lastly, there's a film called The Reaper (La Parka) about a man who works in an animal slaughterhouse which doesn't exactly sound happy but I thought sounded the least immediately depressing...but have since read through reviews that it is the MOST depressing of the lot.

This shot from Our Curse pretty much sums up all of my feelings right now.

I could not see these films in one sitting, I just couldn't do it. I already saw the film Unbroken and don't want to go through another depressing film-viewing experience like that again. So, what will win? I don't know. How about Joanna. That's the one about cancer. That sounds the most Oscary. I guess that's my prediction but really I just don't want to think about this category too much.
Will Win: A really sad movie.
Should Have Been Nominated: A movie about bunnies hopping through a field and eating delicious strawberries and nothing bad happens ever.

And that's every category! What are your thoughts on the nominees and/or on my predictions? Share your own predictions in the comments section, and be sure to watch the Oscars on Sunday, February 22nd!

Oscar Predictions 2014: Best [BLANK] Film

When people think about the best film of the year, the one that comes to mind is, of course, Best Picture. But when we say Best Picture, we mean best Full Length Feature Film. There are, in fact, six other categories which, essentially, award the best picture in their field-- it's just a more specific field. Of these categories, the only consistently mainstream one is the Best Animated Feature category-- although Best Documentary Feature and Best Foreign Language Film occasionally have some well-known films among the nominees-- like Oscar-winning documentaries March of the Penguins, An Inconvenient Truth, or Bowling for Columbine. But these more mainstream releases don’t always win. For example, famous documentaries such as Spellbound, Super Size Me, and Sicko all went home empty-handed on Oscar night. And that’s because the Oscar voters actually watch all of the films nominated, which most pundits, oddsmakers, and bloggers (including myself) have not done. This disparity can perhaps be best seen in the foreign-language film category. Take the case of Pan’s Labyrinth, which despite being a hit in the United States and receiving multiple other Oscar nominations, lost this award to the German film The Lives of Others. And I have to tell you, as much as I love Pan’s Labyrinth, The Lives of Others is one of the best films I’ve ever had the pleasure of watching—it had appeared on numerous critics’ Top Ten lists that year and very much deserved its triumph. And yes, reaction was negative as people who had not seen any of the nominees other than Pan’s Labyrinth were outraged at its supposed snub. This same ignorance has already been on display this year, with many on the internet being surprised that palme d’or winner Blue is the Warmest Color was not nominated. But…while the film is in a foreign language, it was ineligible to be nominated this year as it was released past the deadline in its home country of France. So its lack of a nomination was far from a snub—it was a certainty!

But I'm getting off track. Because I want to talk about the most overlooked categories-- the ones for short films-- Best Animated Short Film, Best Live Action Short Film, and Best Documentary Short Subject. These awards are a big deal for filmmakers. For those who make these films, there is no higher honor one can receive. But because they’re not big names and often don’t have a wide release, no one really cares about these awards. And I'm not saying that everyone has to watch these films—I know how expensive it is in both time and money to watch movies these days (and if you use…um…less legal methods, these films are often more difficult to locate) but they’re worth at least reading about. What do these documentary short subjects actually address? Even if you can’t see the whole film, you can often get a glimpse of the animation in the animated shorts, and they’re usually incredible. 

I learned about two fantastic short films from previous Oscars—both winners in the Live Action Short category. One is Six Shooter which was made by playwright Martin McDonagh, who has since made the fantastic feature-length films In Bruges and Seven Psychopaths, and Six Shooter is certainly on par with them. The other live-action short I’d like to recommend is a wonderful movie musical called West Bank Story which is, essentially, West Side Story but taking place between two rival falafel stands on the Gaza strip. The reason why I sought this film out, and in fact purchased it, was actually the speech that the filmmaker, Ari Sandel, gave at the Oscars, which championed the work of the independent filmmaker, the “little guy,” and the importance of the films in the categories below. Here’s a great interview with Sandel about winning the Oscar which ends with the full speech. You realize that, while big celebrities oftentimes give acceptance speeches at multiple awards ceremonies in their life, this is really, truly, the greatest moment in the winners of these particular categories. That’s why they’re often some of my favorite acceptance speeches. Don't go to the bathroom when these awards are announced-- the speeches are going to be the most earnest and wonderful of the night.

And if the encouragement of me and Sandel is not enough to get you to care about these awards, then remember that these are the categories that people just guess on for their ballots. So, these are the ones that can really help put you over the edge if you’re in any competitive Oscar betting pool.

But enough of my soapboxing-- let's actually predict who will win:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Nominees:

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Ernest & Celestine

Frozen

The Wind Rises

Will Win: Frozen

This is probably the biggest lock of the night. There's no way Frozen won't win this. I haven't seen the other films listed (Ernest & Celestine could be wonderful but has not been released in the United States yet) so I can't say who should win. But I will say that I wasn't as blown away by Frozen as many others were. It has a lot of flaws. But, still, it's a really enjoyable, beautifully animated film with some great music. It's hard to imagine there won't be big cheers when this one wins.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Nominees:

The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)

The Great Beauty (Italy)

The Hunt (Denmark)

The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

Omar (Palestine)

Will Win: The Hunt The Great Beauty

There are really only two films competing for this award: The Great Beauty from Italy, and The Hunt from Denmark. If any of the other films win, it will be a huge upset. Having seen both of these, I can say that they're two incredibly different films. Most are calling this one for The Great Beauty-- thinking that it will beat out its Scandinavian competitor. And I can see why. The film is one of the strangest (in a good way) that I've seen. It's almost as if Robert Altman were doing his interpretation of Bollywood. Its title is appropriate: it certainly is beautiful (many gorgeous shots of Italy) and is certainly great in its scope-- it's a sprawling film featuring many loosely connected scenes and themes. It's a wonderful and thought-provoking film. The Hunt, on the other hand, is much smaller. The story of a man falsely accused of molesting a child-- and the ensuing witch hunt on the part of his friends and family-- relies on subtlety, and has a wonderful performance from Mads Mikkelsen, who won the Best Actor award at Cannes. The emphasis is more on storytelling, which the film does superbly-- not to mention the fact that it handles a very difficult issue with surprising sensitivity and adeptness.

It's really impossible to compare the two. If The Great Beauty wins, I will understand why, and I won't be upset. And, as I said, it's probably the favorite here, with The Hunt simply a contender. But in this category, the Academy has a tendency to pick the smaller films. Consider the year that the wondrous and whimsical Amelie lost to the more dramatic No Man's Land from Bosnia & Herzegovina. This category has had no shortage of upsets, and I'm predicting one this year. I could be totally wrong, but I think it's going to be The Hunt.

However, if The Great Beauty wins, then it will mean that Italy will be officially tied with France for the most winners in this category.

EDITED: As it is now the morning before the Oscars, things have obviously changed. The Great Beauty has simply become too much of a favorite for it to be reasonable to pick anything else. Upsets are still always possible, but the odds of The Great Beauty winning have only increased since I originally published this, and the chances of The Hunt winning have all but disappeared. Both are great films and both should be seen, but The Great Beauty will be the winner tonight.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Nominees:

The Act of Killing

Cutie and the Boxer

Dirty Wars

The Square

20 Feet from Stardom

Will Win: The Act of Killing

 

This category always features amazing variety. The feel-good films tend to not have the best success here, as the category likes to award the more hard-hitting documentaries (the fact that March of the Penguins won is actually rather surprising) which would knock out Cutie and the Boxer and 20 Feet from Stardom this year. I think the big winner here is going to be The Act of Killing based solely on its truly unique premise: the film follows former executioners under the command of Pol Pot in 60's Cambodia as they are encouraged to recreate some of their murders in various film styles (such as Western, gangster film, and musical) and filmed the process. Disturbing and fascinating, it's the best bet.

And, to go back to the point that you should see these films, all of these documentaries with the exception of 20 Feet from Stardom are available on Netflix right now! Go watch them! Interestingly, The Square was actually released as an original film on Netflix, meaning that Netflix has garnered its first Oscar nomination.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT:

Nominees:

Feral

Get a Horse!

Mr. Hublot

Possessions

Room on the Broom

Will Win: Get a Horse!

This category is often unpredictable, but if there's a favorite it's Get a Horse! which is otherwise known as the short shown in theaters before Frozen.  The film's use of classic Disney characters, and a combination of old and new animation make it a fun and nostalgic pick. If not Get a Horse!, the other favorite would be Room on the Broom which is based on a children's book of the same name and features an all-star cast of British comedians (it's narrated by Simon Pegg, and also stars Gillian Anderson, Rob Brydon, Sally Hawkins, Davis Walliams, and Timothy Spall). It's perfectly fine, but the fact that it takes them over twenty minutes to tell what I imagine is, like, a twelve page book is kind of ridiculous. It's a fine movie for kids, but for adults it's incredibly predictable and tedious (and, even for kids, it's hardly groundbreaking). The only reason it got nominated is for the names involved...and that might be enough to make it a spoiler to win. Although it shouldn't-- it doesn't hold a candle to any of the other nominees here.

Should Win: Mr. Hublot

Get a Horse! and Room on the Broom are nice, but neither comes close to actually being the strongest of these films-- especially not Room on the Broom which is perfectly adequate but is really nothing special and goes on way too long. And while Get a Horse! is really good, its animation is really not all that impressive, especially when compared to the other films in this category.

My two favorites are Mr. Hublot and Feral, two very different films. Mr Hublot is the story of a lonely man in a steampunk mechanized world who adopts a dog. It's simplistic, but the story it tells is actually really wonderful, to the point that I got a bit choked up towards the end. And the level of detail that goes into the animation is really extraordinary. My close second is Feral which tells the story of a feral child who is brought into society by a hunter. The animation is unlike anything I've ever seen before, and I was especially impressed by the amount of expression animator Daniel Sousa extracted from these characters considering they don't have any faces.

I wanted to make a Wolf of Wall Street joke, but nothing I couldn't come up with anything clever.

Get a Horse!, for me, comes in a clear third place in this lineup, and is not even close to being on the same playing field as Mr. Hublot or Feral (for me, it does beat out an interesting Japanese film Possessions about a traveler who escapes a temple of horrors through the use of his sewing kit). Really, as long as it's not Room on the Broom I'll be happy. If that wins then...I just give up.

Should Have Been Nominated: A La Francaise, The Missing Scarf, The Blue Umbrella

At the presentation of short films that I went to, after the five nominees played, I was ready to leave...but then another film started playing. It was called A La Francaise and the screen announced that it has received "commendation." Not only did this film play, but two other films played after it-- none of them received nominations, but they had all received a commendation of some sort. I'm not really sure what the technicalities of this are, but I have to say...these three films were some of the best of the showing, and certainly deserved nominations above three of the actual nominees. 

Pixar's The Blue Umbrella was cute and clever, A la Francaise was hilarious, and both were exceptionally well done. But, the third commended film, The Missing Scarf, was by far one of the most brilliant things I've ever seen. Using simple and whimsical paper animation to tell the story of a squirrel looking for a missing scarf, the film starts off rather plainly. But then...it takes a turn towards the existential and the absurd. By the end of the film, I could hardly breathe because I was laughing so hard-- when it is released for purchase on February 25th, I will be the first in line to download it so that I can watch it again: the first time I was too distracted by my disbelief that what was happening on screen could possibly be occurring. It was simply amazing, I cannot think of anything else like it, and cannot possibly hope to explain its genius in text-- you really do have to see it for yourself. It alone is worth the price of admission. As far as I'm now concerned, its lack of nomination is the biggest snub of the year. Oh, and did I mention that it is narrated by George Takei?

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:

Nominees:

Aquel no era yo (That Wasn't Me)

Avant que de tout perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)

Helium

Pitaako mun kaikki hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)

The Voorman Problem

Will Win and Should Win: Helium

When I originally published this post, I called this category for The Voorman Problem. The reason was that I had read that most people were predicting a win for it, so it seemed like a sensible thing to do. However, now that I've seen the films, I've changed my mind. Here's why:

I understand why people think The Voorman Problem will win. It's a really interesting film, based on a short story, about a psychiatrist who examines a prison inmate named Voorman who thinks he's a god. You learn very quickly, however, that Voorman might be right (as a proposed test, he makes the nation of Belgium disappear). It's well done, but not really that suspenseful-- you immediately know that this character wields tremendous power, so there's no real mind game played-- the psychiatrist never holds all of the cards. And the ending comes rather abruptly, ending on a bit of a "huh" rather than a bang.

But, despite this, I understand why a lot of people are predicting a win for this one: celebrities. None of the five films nominated are American, with the other entries coming from Spain, France, Denmark, and Finland. The Voorman Problem is from the U.K., and features performances from internationally recognized actors Martin Freeman and Tom Hollander. If you were looking at things statistically to determine which film would win, a la Nate Silver, this film has all of the key elements to put it over the edge.

The two main players in The Voorman Problem

But since seeing the films, I have changed my mind. And I have changed my mind for one simple reason: I simply refuse to believe that, of the people watching these films, enough people would name it their number one pick.

Of the nominees, there's really only one that will definitely not win-- that's the Finnish Do I Have to Take Care of Everything? which is perfectly nice, but is a lightweight comedy that clocks in at less than half of the running time as the second shortest film. It's fine, but not really Oscar material-- to compete it would have had to have been a laugh-out-loud riot, and it really isn't. It's fine, though. I also don't think a win is likely for the Spanish That Wasn't Me, an emotionally powerful but also highly flawed film about two Spanish doctors kidnapped by African child soldiers.

The Voorman Problem places third for me, and just like with Get a Horse!, it is a distant third behind my two favorites of the program. My pick for the win-- because it WILL win if everyone is as moved by it as I was-- is the Danish entry Helium, about a custodian at a hospital who tells stories to a dying boy about the magical world of Helium where he claims the boy will go to when he dies. It's a beautifully shot, beautifully written, and beautifully acted film which had tears streaming down my face. Absolutely incredible.

I could also see voters responding to my second favorite-- the French film Just Before Losing Everything which starts of slowly but soon comes to a frightening head. The film follows the four hours before a woman and her children are attempting to flee their home and start a new life to get away from her abusive husband. Things are going okay, until her unaware husband shows up at the supermarket in which they're hiding out. It is a tense film, and of the nominees, is the one which feels like a full-length feature-- you become incredibly invested in these characters and their well-being. It would be my runaway winner, if Helium just didn't tug on my heartstrings so much.

If you want to do the safe thing, choose The Voorman Problem. I won't be surprised if it wins. But, I'm guessing that a lot of people calling this award for that film have not seen the full lineup (few people have). And watching these films together, I just cannot believe that The Voorman Problem will beat out two clearly superior films. I'm calling an upset in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY-- SHORT SUBJECT

Nominees:

CaveDigger

Facing Fear

Karama Has No Walls

The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

Will Win: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved Me Life

Alas, I've yet to see the films in these categories, but hope to before the Oscars and will update this page accordingly. I've heard of some support for CaveDigger, but The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life seems to be the odds-on favorite here.

Thoughts on my predictions? Thoughts on my rant on the importance of these categories? Has anyone else had a chance to see these short films? Let me know in the comments!