Here is the full breakdown of my predictions.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Nominees:
The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks
Will Win: Gravity
A category of heavy-hitters. This is the twelfth nomination for Thomas Newman (Saving Mr. Banks) but he has yet to win. Alexandre Desplat (Philomena) is another favorite who has yet to win, but he has been nominated six times in the past seven years. And, of course, there's John Williams, whose nomination for scoring The Book Thief is his 49th career nomination-- making him the second most nominated individual in Oscars history (behind only Walt Disney). But this win is going to go to relative newcomer Steven Price, whose score is absolutely crucial to the success of Gravity as a film.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Nominees:
"Happy" (Despicable Me)
"Let It Go" (Frozen)
"The Moon Song" (Her)
"Ordinary Love" (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
This has already been a fascinating category, mostly due to the controversy of the original fifth nominee-- "Alone Yet Not Alone" from a film of the same name. The little-known film (a Christian propaganda film which had been partially funded by Rick Santorum) was a surprising nominee-- so surprising that a private investigator was brought in and discovered that the song's co-writer had engaged in illegal campaigning practices (using his power as a former governor of the voting branch to send emails to the voters campaigning for his song). Although nominations have been revoked in the past, I believe (don't quote me on this) that this is only the third time it has happened-- and it is the first time it has been done on ethical grounds, rather than disqualification due to a technicality.
The race itself is less exciting. Despite the stardom of U2 and their Golden Globe win for "Ordinary Love," it's probably not going to win on Oscar night. No, the odds-on favorite is "Let It Go" from Frozen. And I know I'm going to lose some fans for saying this, but...I don't get the fascination with this song. It's not a bad song, but...it's not really a great one. It's been done so many times before, and often much better (perhaps because it's performed by Idina Menzel, I couldn't help but compare it to "Defying Gravity" from Wicked.) The thing is, I love the music in this movie. There are tons of great melodies and clever lyrics and composer Robert Lopez is brilliant (he's known for his work on the Tony-winning musicals Avenue Q and The Book of Mormon). But the song was really underwhelming for me, and was one of the few songs from the movie that I didn't have stuck in my head when the film was done. Obviously I'm in the minority here, as EVERYONE loves this song, but I don't get why it's getting the attention over, say, "Do You Want to Build a Snowman?," "In Summer," and even "Fixer Upper."
But, of the nominees, I will admit that it's the best option. "Happy" is a lot of fun, but is nothing special. "Ordinary Love" isn't bad, although it's certainly not one of U2's best songs, and would have been a better song for the film if the band performing it had ACTUALLY BEEN SOUTH AFRICAN. Seriously, producers? You couldn't find a single South African band or musician to write a song about Nelson Mandela that you could use instead of a song by a band from Ireland? This leaves "The Moon Song," which is my personal favorite of the nominees...but was the best song in film this year really a standard lullaby accompanied by a ukelele? If "Please Mr. Kennedy" from Inside Llewyn Davis had been nominated, then it would have been the clear winner for me.
Although we all know that this is the best song of the year. Or ever.
BEST SOUND EDITING:
Nominees:
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor
Will Win: Gravity
You're going to be seeing "Will Win: Gravity" a lot now...
BEST SOUND MIXING
Nominees:
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
Will Win: Gravity
Yes, sound editing and sound mixing are two different things. Yes, only sound editors and sound mixers can really differentiate between the two in a film. Yes, these awards typically go to the same film every year.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees:
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave
Will Win: Gravity
Some think that The Great Gatsby could take this one, but I'm not convinced the Academy will want to give that film anything. Still, it shouldn't be counted out. Personally, I loved the cohesive and distinct designs of both American Hustle and 12 Years a Slave very much and think that in a fair world, one of them would win this. But, it's going to be Gravity.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Nominees:
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
Will Win: Gravity
This is one of the strongest batches of nominees-- all five have truly incredible cinematography (I particularly liked the interesting work in Nebraska-- the 11th black and white film to be nominated in this category since the 1960's). The other four nominees would have had a chance at a win any other year, but really no film can win other than Gravity for its truly groundbreaking achievements in the field.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Nominees:
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
Will Win: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
In what has to be one of the weirdest group of nominees in Oscar history, I'm going against the grain on this one. The inclusion of The Lone Ranger here is strange, as most thought the makeup-- like the rest of the film-- was just plain weird. Now, most of what I'm hearing is that Dallas Buyers Club is going to win, but I'm not convinced as I didn't find the makeup to be all that standout in the film. Yes, it's the best overall picture of the three nominees, but does it really have the best makeup? Everything I've read or heard that calls this award for Dallas Buyers Club uses the argument that "The makeup in Bad Grandpa is good, but the Oscars are never going to reward a film with Jackass in the title." But...why not? This category already nominated the film, and has a history of nominating really bizarre and despised movies (remember, this is the category that makes Norbit an Oscar nominee). The makeup work is impressive. They made Johnny Knoxville look like this:
Consensus seems to be that this film actually has the better makeup. Why shouldn't it win? I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it will. Although I think that both Prisoners and Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom should have easily been nominees in this category.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Nominees:
American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years a Slave
Will Win:
The Academy loves period pieces, and as there are no films from the Victorian/Elizabethan era nominated tonight, it means the Academy gets to reward work from a different time. It's going to be American Hustle or The Great Gatsby and I'm really on the fence with this one-- it could go either way. But I settled on American Hustle for its stronger overall look (who could notice the Gatsby costumes through all of the glitter?)
EDITED: As it is now Oscars morning, and buzz has changed in the half a month since I originally published this, I have to adjust my predictions. Despite the fact that I don't actually remember what any of the costumes in The Great Gatsby looked like, apparently it's pretty much a lock to win this one. I always knew that Gatsby was the favorite, but I thought Hustle had a chance. Apparently no. Apparently it is definitely going to be Gatsby according to everyone in the know. So, prediction altered. Apparently this rendition of The Great Gatsby will win one, perhaps two awards. And yet Philomena probably won't win anything. Lovely.
BEST FILM EDITING:
Nominees:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
Will Win: Gravity
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Nominees:
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness
Will Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Nominated: Pacific Rim
I was shocked when Pacific Rim failed to score a single nomination in any of the technical categories, despite beautiful designs from the brilliant Guillermo del Toro. I had hoped that this above-average summer action flick would score some credit-- I mean, if the Transformers series has gotten nominations in these categories, not awarding anything to a film as accomplished as Pacific Rim certainly seems like a snub. I mean, come on, The Lone Ranger? Really?
And there you have it-- my final batch of Oscar predictions. Be sure to read my other predictions as well, and let me know your thoughts in the comments. Best of luck to everyone on their Oscar ballots and to all of the nominees on Oscar night!
Best Picture Prediction
Best Director Prediction
Best Supporting Actor Prediction
Best Supporting Actress Prediction
Best Actor Prediction
Best Actress Prediction
Best Screenplay Predictions
Best Animated/Documentary/Foreign Language/Short Film Predictions
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