I’m going to start off by saying what I always say when I write this lengthy set of predictions: the Oscars are an unbelievably silly thing. Awards shows are always going to struggle for legitimacy, but even in the grand field of awards shows, the Oscars don't have a great track record. Even when the Oscars get it right, like last year's historic win for Parasite, it feels more like a fluke than a sign of great wisdom from the slightly-less-old-and-white-than-it-used-to-be-but-still-very-old-and-white Academy. And in a year like this one, it's hard to know if the Oscars are more or yes relevant than ever. People relied on movies in an unprecedented way, when film became a crucial part of the lockdown experience for many. But, also, this industry is in flux. Movie theaters are closing in droves, and the future of the blockbuster film as we know it feels really uncertain. But I would argue that this is the very reason I have such strong feelings about the Oscars (or, rather the IDEA of the Oscars rather than the Oscars themselves). The nature of awards shows generates conversation. The awards themselves matter, but so do discussions of snubs and upsets. Awards shows also prevent the film industry from falling completely into capitalistic tendencies. When movie theaters come back, it would be easy for every studio to release exclusively films solely based on what will bring in the biggest audiences. But as long as there are awards shows, studios have a vested interest in making quality work. Prestige filmmakers can get their films funded due to their awards potential, even if box office revenue isn't guaranteed. I don't love all of this year's nominees, but many categories are really strong. Analyzing the categories this year was a heartening reminder of how much good work was done this year. Concerns about a weak lineup of Oscar nominees in this unusual year proved to be unfounded, and that is honestly a relief.
But enough soapboxing. Let's get onto the predictions! As always, my picks for what will win are not endorsements and are based solely on what I think has the best chance (based on factors I explain in what some might call an irresponsible amount of detail). But I also don't hold back with my opinions, and include what I think should win, as well as what I feel should have been nominated. If you're interested in more of my personal opinions, you can check out my favorite films of the year, favorite performances of the year, and even The Sixth Annual Miles Awards (which with your help can one day replace the Oscars). But since that hasn't happened yet...let's get onto the predictions!
BEST PICTURE:
Will Win: Nomadland
Could Win: Minari, Mank
Should Win: Judas and the Black Messiah
Should Have Been Nominated: I’m Thinking of Ending Things
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| Nomadland, Minari, and Judas and the Black Messiah |
The frontrunner is undoubtedly Nomadland. It emerged as an early front runner late last year when it picked up a slew of critical film festival wins, and at the time the biggest concern for its chances was whether or not it could sustain momentum with such a delayed Oscars ceremony. Its most recent wins at the PGA Awards, DGA Awards, and the BAFTAs have certainly proved that the momentum for Nomadland has not stalled in any way. It’s a solid piece of filmmaking, and a remarkably honest and touching look at American poverty which avoids the pitfalls that make so many similar films feel exploitative. On paper, there’s no reason to believe it’s not going to win.
But, in the film industry’s most unpredictable year possibly ever, the stage seems set for an upset. The last two years, Best Picture has been a bit of a surprise—Roma and 1917 were most oddsmakers’ picks going into the ceremony. And the truth is that Nomadland is a really odd frontrunner for this or any Academy Awards. Much of Nomadland’s strength lies in its quietness, but that small scale rarely wins big at the Oscars, tending to fare better at the Gotham or Independent Spirit Awards. Academy members undoubtedly have respect for the film, but it likely doesn’t have the same passionate following that, for example, Parasite had last year. That doesn’t mean Nomadland can’t win, but if it does it’ll be a sort of consensus pick, the way films like The Shape of Water or Spotlight were.
Helping Nomadland’s chances is that there’s not really a film particularly nipping at its heels. I feel like Nomadland is on uncertain ground as the frontrunner, but I don’t particularly see a film with a convincing case to overtake it. It saddens me to say this, but we know that it won’t be Sound of Metal or The Father. These are two of my favorite films out of all the nominees, but they have consistently been bridesmaids all awards season, and their awards campaigns have focused almost exclusively on the acting awards as opposed to Best Picture outright. A few weeks ago I would have also said this about The Trial of the Chicago 7. Its win for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards—often an Oscars bellwether—has put it back in the running…but just barely. That’s really the only thing it has going for it, and that alone isn’t going to be enough to indicate a real shot at a win. I’ve recently seen a lot of buzz for Promising Young Woman being a dark horse to win this award, as it has been receiving a huge swell of momentum of late, thanks in part to major on-demand viewership. But I don’t see it happening. Of the eight nominees, it is probably the most divisive choice, and given that the Oscars uses ranked choice voting, I can see this film being on the bottom of too many ballots to make it a winner. I was among those that really hated this movie, and it’s possible that my own dislike for it has me underestimating its chances, but I can usually remain objective in my predictions. Promising Young Woman isn’t on my radar as a winner.
We then have Mank, Netflix’s strongest contender in this category (they also produced The Trial of the Chicago 7). Netflix has had an interesting relationship with the Oscars for the past few years. After gaining its first Oscar win in 2018 for the documentary Icarus, the streaming service came on strong in 2019 with a campaign for Roma, which soon gained frontrunner status. After Roma lost, it sparked a conversation in the industry about whether films from streaming services should even be allowed to compete. Ever since, Netflix’s Oscar strategy has been pretty clear: they see the Academy Awards as a way to claim legitimacy. For two years running, it seems like they release multiple films which could make a splash at the Oscars, and then choose one or two to push all of their weight behind. This means that films like Da 5 Bloods and I’m Thinking of Ending Things—which could have picked up awards for acting and screenplay, but might have been a harder sell for Best Picture—were completely abandoned by the service. Even a film like Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, which by most accounts did well and picked up multiple nominations, was mostly ignored by Netflix, and might have scored a Best Picture nomination with a different distributor. Instead, Netflix chose to highlight Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 because they are the type of bland fare that often grabs the Oscars’ eye, and because they were shoo-ins for multiple nominations. On one hand, it appears this strategy might have worked perfectly; for the first time, Netflix has the most nominations out of any studio, and somewhat unbelievably, is actually represented in all categories except Best International Film. Plus, if ever there was a year that a Netflix film could win Best Picture, it would be one where most people haven’t been to a movie theater in a long time. The problem is that the same lukewarm quality that allows Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 to rack up nominations means that they’re unlikely to actually win. By crafting them specifically to be Oscar bait, these films have been sanded down to lose any edge that might have actually garnered them fans. Mank isn’t entirely out of the game. It has the most nominations by far of any film (10, whereas Promising Young Woman has 5, and all other Best Picture nominees have 6), so it clearly has appeal across many voting branches. And Netflix’s heavy campaigning might just buy Mank a win. But if Nomadland’s weakness is that it’s not eye-catching enough, then the middle-of-the-road quality of Mank most likely isn’t going to be enough to overtake it.
So that leaves Judas and the Black Messiah and Minari. The same instinct that’s holding me back from declaring this award will definitely go to Nomadland is telling me these are the only two films that, on content alone, could triumph over it. My gut wants me to declare this for Judas and the Black Messiah. It’s my favorite of the nominees, but it’s also the most exciting of the nominees. While many of the Best Picture nominees are more introspective, Judas and the Black Messiah is bold, energetic, and genuinely thrilling. But it’s far from lightweight—this is a movie that handles some heavy themes, and tells a historical true story with contemporary urgency and relevance. Ever since I saw the movie, I’ve wondered why on earth this film hasn’t been in conversation as the eventual champion. While acknowledging that art is subjective, this has the FEEL of a Best Picture winner more than any of its fellow contenders. But it became impossible for me to argue this in earnest after the nominations came out. Judas and the Black Messiah is, sadly, the only Best Picture nominee to not be nominated for Best Director or Best Editing. These categories, which most frequently overlap with the Best Picture winner, are pretty much a must-have if a film hopes to win Best Picture. You can win with just one of those categories, but definitely not without both. Should Judas and the Black Messiah pull a major upset and win here, it would be only the second film to do so without Directing and Editing nominations (the first being Grand Hotel, which won at the 5th Academy Awards and wasn’t nominated for anything except Best Picture). That’s a staggering hurdle to overcome. The question is what went wrong to give this movie no chance at the trophy it deserves, and my guess is its late release screwed it over. It and The Father had by far the latest release dates of any of the Best Picture contenders, and I imagine the thinking was that by giving them a later release they would be fresher on voters’ minds, and wouldn’t have a chance to fade out of the conversation (remember when critics insisted that First Cow was a Best Picture frontrunner?) I think the problem is that by the time they were released, the winners circle had already started to emerge, and while both of these films filled in certain cracks, they simply weren’t viewed as winners upon their release, because the frontrunners felt determined by that point. But that’s just a theory.
This leaves just one Best Picture nominee, which I think has the most credible shot of overtaking Nomadland. That would be Minari. Despite its difficult themes, it’s a crowdpleaser, and seems to have the broadest appeal out of all the Best Picture nominees. It’s classic enough for the older part of the Academy’s branch, but refreshing enough for the newer part. Knowing that it’s based off of writer and director Lee Isaac Chung’s life is just the icing on the cake, and would make this win a feel-good story in a way it wouldn’t be for the other nominees in this category (and after this difficult year, voters are desperately looking for a feel-good film, and there really isn’t one in this lineup). In fact, if Minari had won at the SAG Awards, I think everyone would agree this race was a lot closer. Its failure to win there—where it had the best chance of winning out of all of the guilds—was a blow to its chances for sure, but at least it was nominated for Best Ensemble when Nomadland wasn’t. And the fact that Youn Yuh-jung won for Best Supporting Actress there shows that it does have support from actors (who make up the largest percentage of the Academy). The case for Minari winning is far weaker than the one for Nomadland, but it’s not in a bad position to overtake it. And it certainly has a better chance than the rest of the field.
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| I'm Thinking of Ending Things |
As far as what I’d pick, I’ll try to be brief as this is already a really long entry (I promise the others will be shorter!) In general, I think this is a strong lineup, with half of the nominees being films I’d genuinely say are excellent. Still, I always wish the Academy made room for more unusual films. And I think there is a world where my favorite film of the year, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, might have been in contention (had Netflix bothered to campaign for it at all—a theme that will come up in other categories, believe me). Similar to The Father, this is a film that explores memory and sense of self in a truly intriguing way, and is a film that has profoundly lingered with me. This year’s strong field definitely had room for this incredibly well-crafted gem.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Will Win: Chloé Zhao—Nomadland
Could Win: David Fincher—Mank, Lee Isaac Chung—Minari
Should Win: Lee Isaac Chung—Minari
Should Have Been Nominated: Shaka King—Judas and the Black Messiah, Florian Zeller—The Father
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| Nomadland, Mank, and Minari |
I think it’s fair to say that this award is Chloé Zhao’s to lose. Zhao has become a bit of an industry darling at this point, and while the quality of her work has been consistently strong, the main reason she’s the frontrunner is because it just feels like it’s “her time,” whatever that means. And should she win as expected, this will be a historic win, in what has already been a historic year for this category. Thanks to Emerald Fennell’s nomination, this is the first year that two women have been nominated in this category. Should Zhao win, she’ll be only the second woman to win this award, and will be the first woman of color to do so. This is very much overdue, but it will be very exciting when it happens.
While, again, this category is pretty much a lock, there’s always at least a chance for an upset. Thomas Vinterberg is the least likely winner, as Another Round isn’t a Best Picture nominee. Just as in the Best Picture category, I think that Promising Young Woman will be too divisive for Fennell to take home this particular award. So if we have an upset, it will come from either David Fincher or Lee Isaac Chung. If Fincher wins, it will be in recognition of his prolific career as opposed to his work on Mank in particular. But I don’t think he’s quite stuck with the “overdue” label that someone like Martin Scorsese had when he won for The Departed. This is at least partially due to the fact that Fincher’s best directing tends to be in genre films, which are rarely recognized by the Academy. Fincher will surely win Best Director one day, and hopefully it will be a film much more interesting than Mank. A far more interesting upset would be from Chung, whose strong work balancing the story of Minari is my favorite direction out of the nominees. If Chung wins here, it will be a shock, and it will be an indication that Minari might take home Best Picture later in the night.
Judas and the Black Messiah
Half of the Best Picture nominees also earned nominations for Best Director, with The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 being the only Best Picture titles to not overlap. When nominations were announced, the big snub of note was Aaron Sorkin not earning a nomination for The Trial of the Chicago 7, but his direction wasn’t particularly deft, so I’m, frankly, okay with that. But, interestingly enough, the other three Best Picture contenders are the ones I think should really be here. In my opinion, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Sound of Metal easily have the best direction on display out of any of the films in the category. And not only the best direction, but some of the most technically impressive direction which is ordinarily recognized by the Academy. I can only guess that the weird awards season calendar is what altered this category, with Florian Zeller and Shaka King being victims of their films’ late releases. But it’s a shame—Zeller and King offered two very different examples of directing excellence, and I think this would be a much more exciting category had both of them been under consideration. They certainly deserved it.
BEST ACTRESS:
Will Win: Viola Davis as Ma Rainey—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Could Win: Carey Mulligan as Cassie Thomas—Promising Young Woman, Frances McDormand as Fern—Nomadland
Should Win: Viola Davis as Ma Rainey—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should Have Been Nominated: Jessie Buckley as Young Woman—I’m Thinking of Ending Things
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| Viola Davis, Carey Mulligan, and Frances McDormand |
Of the four acting categories, this is the closest race for sure. It’s the only category where I could see any of the five nominees potentially taking home the trophy, although three frontrunners have certainly emerged. Vanessa Kirby and Andra Day have both picked up numerous accolades this awards season, but neither have picked up many actual trophies. In such a close year, neither of them should be counted out, but they definitely have the least momentum going into Oscars night. Frances McDormand is a powerhouse and an Oscars favorite, and her work as Fern is a quieter portrayal than the Academy is used to seeing from her. Plus, her win at the BAFTAs signaled that she’s back in the race just as she was starting to fade out of the conversation. Carey Mulligan is being seen as the frontrunner by most prognosticators for her work in Promising Young Woman. It’s an acclaimed performance, and very well could win. Of these three frontrunners, she’s the only one who isn’t a previous Oscar winner. Many have been arguing that it’s “her time,” which is a powerful and enigmatic concept within the Academy. But she’s been losing some momentum as the ceremony nears. Her shocking snub at the BAFTAs, and loss at the SAG Awards showed that her leading status isn’t necessarily as set in stone as many thought it was a month ago. Which might open things up for Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Davis’ work is undoubtedly strong—in fact, it was my favorite performance of the year—but initially, I think some people doubted her chances because of how ensemble-based the acting in that film is. The awards campaign is centering her co-star Chadwick Boseman’s performance rather than her own, but I’m hoping she’ll still take this one anyway. Even if Netflix is highlighting Boseman, that still means people are watching the movie, and Davis’ work is potentially too strong to ignore. After Davis won at the SAG Awards, it was a reminder that she’s very much still a contender, and the reminder that Davis would be only the second Black woman to win in this category adds a historical significance that might counteract the Academy’s reluctance to honor previous winners. Essentially, this is a race between Davis and Mulligan, with McDormand as a dark horse who could benefit from the closeness of the competition. My prediction of Davis is a gamble for sure (and one very possibly swayed by my own distaste for Promising Young Woman as a whole), but I don’t think it’s a completely reckless one.
Jessie Buckley
I’ve already argued that I’m Thinking of Ending Things should have been a Best Picture nominee, though I can acknowledge that the film itself might have been too divisive for that to have happened. But even those who don’t care for the film have to acknowledge how powerful Jessie Buckley’s leading performance is. Buckley has quickly become one of my favorite actors working today, and I’ve yet to see her do anything except exemplary work. Buckley isn’t a household name just yet, but I have no doubts she’s going to be one very soon. After her amazing work in I’m Thinking of Ending Things…and in Wild Rose the year before…and in Beast the year before that, it’s hard to imagine what Buckley still has to do to get the Academy’s attention, but it’s bound to happen one of these days.
BEST ACTOR:
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman as Levee Green—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Could Win: Anthony Hopkins as Anthony—The Father
Should Win: Riz Ahmed as Ruben Stone—Sound of Metal
Should Have Been Nominated: Jorge Garcia as Memo Garrido—Nobody Knows I’m Here
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| Chadwick Boseman, Anthony Hopkins, and Riz Ahmed |
Unlike Best Actress, the Best Actor could essentially be handed out right now. Chadwick Boseman’s untimely death brought to light just how beloved he was, and how meaningful his career was to so many. It’s understandable to think the Academy would want to honor him no matter what, and his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is a worthy way to do so. His work as Levee Green is the absolute best of his career. And while it isn’t my personal favorite of the nominees, it’s still more than worthy of an Oscar, and I imagine it will be an incredibly touching moment when he wins, as he has at nearly every ceremony leading up to this one.
I say nearly every ceremony because even the most decided categories can have outliers. After Anthony Hopkins won at the BAFTAs for The Father, it showed the potential for an upset on Oscar night. It helps that Hopkins’ performance in The Father is one of the best in his decorated career. His work in The Father is strikingly vulnerable, and while hopefully Hopkins will continue to work for many years, his extraordinary performance would feel like a fitting one to earn him one last Oscar. It’s unlikely—the BAFTAs already favor British actors more than the Oscars, so Hopkins did have an advantage that he won’t have this time around. But if anyone is going to overtake Boseman it will be him.
I will be incredibly happy if Boseman wins—even as a symbolic way to recognize his influence. And Hopkins is genuinely incredible in The Father. The fact that neither of them gave my favorite performance in the category is an indication of what a strong category. With the exception of Gary Oldman, I am genuinely thrilled to see the rest of this lineup. In fact, it’s difficult for me to choose a favorite, but ultimately it has to be Riz Ahmed for Sound of Metal. I’ve been a fan of Ahmed’s for a while, and I think he had the most difficult task to pull off of all of the nominees. More than anyone else in this category, it’s hard for me to imagine anybody else embodying Ruben Stone the way that Ahmed did. It’s beautiful work that stood out to me even amongst an excellent field.
Jorge Garcia
As for who should have been nominated…well…is it too cheeky to simply say LaKeith Stanfield for Judas and the Black Messiah? Much has been made of how odd it is that Stanfield was placed in the supporting category. And while both Stanfield and Daniel Kaluuya really are co-leads in that film, the fact that Stanfield was campaigned for as a leading actor yet was STILL placed in the supporting category is particularly bizarre. And it’s made more bizarre considering that nobody really understands how this happened! But given that Stanfield did at least get a (deserved) nomination SOMEWHERE, I’m instead going to point out the unjustly overlooked work of Jorge Garcia in Nobody Knows I’m Here. This film, an underrated gem you can watch on Netflix, didn’t get nearly enough attention, and Garcia does truly amazing work in it. His performance as Memo Garrido shows a sensitivity and subtlety that would have been right at home amongst these nominees, and a showstopping final scene is the type of powerhouse work that easily should have picked up awards attention.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will Win: Youn Yuh-jung as Soon-ja—Minari
Could Win: Maria Bakalova as Tutar Sagdiyev—Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Should Win: Olivia Colman as Anne—The Father
Should Have Been Nominated: Margo Martindale as Enid Nora Devlin—Blow the Man Down
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| Youn Yuh-jung, Maria Bakalova, and Olivia Colman |
This category has undergone a profound shift as the awards season has gone on. Early on, Amanda Seyfried was being named as the frontrunner for her standout work in Mank, but much of that buzz failed to materialize into actual wins, and she now seems destined to be a nominee only this year. The new frontrunner became Maria Bakalova, whose breakout work in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm has instantly made her a star. Bakalova is great, and her nomination here is more than earned, but I do think that a lot of her awards season surge has come from a sense of unexpectedness. Because she’s unknown, and because Borat was filmed in secret, nobody was really viewing her performance in the context of awards when the film first came out. And, in fact, Sacha Baron Cohen gave an interview where he said Bakalova should get Oscars consideration which gained attention specifically because that felt like something that didn’t have a good chance of happening. The argument for Bakalova winning relies at least partly on a sense of the unexpected. And I think that once she became the frontrunner, her momentum unfortunately began to slip. That has left Youn Yuh-jung, whose performance as Soon-ja is the heart of Minari, and the film’s most solid chance to pick something up at the Oscars. I was already leaning towards Youn as the winner, and after she took home the SAG Award, that seemed to tip the scales in her favor more concretely.
The only two nominees I haven’t mentioned yet are Glenn Close and Olivia Colman (who famously beat Close in a surprise Best Actress win two years ago). Of the two, Close has absolutely no business being here. Her performance as Mamaw is hardly the worst part of Hillbilly Elegy, but it’s also not particularly good. In fact, Close now has the dubious honor of being the first actor ever nominated for an Oscar and a Razzie for the same performance. Colman, on the other hand, I wish was in the conversation more. As much as I enjoyed both Youn and Bakalova’s performances, I think Colman does the best work of this year’s nominees. It’s grounded work, which could have faded into the background in the hands of a lesser actor. The Father is a showcase for Hopkins, but Colman is the steady leader of his supporting ensemble, and it’s a shame she’s getting so overlooked.
Margo Martindale
But,
to be fair, a lot of great performances were overlooked in this category.
Practically any supporting female performance should be here over Close. But if
I had to pick one person to join this category it would be Margo Martindale for
Blow the Man Down. Despite being one of the most respected actresses
working today, Martindale has never had any Oscar consideration, and in a just
world, Blow the Man Down should have changed that. Her performance as
the conniving Enid Nora Devlin is a formidable one, and hopefully served as a
de facto audition to be the villain in the next Coen Brothers film.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya as Fred Hampton—Judas and the Black Messiah
Could Win: Paul Raci as Joe—Sound of Metal
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya as Fred Hampton—Judas and the Black Messiah
Should Have Been Nominated: Glynn Turman as Toledo—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
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| Daniel Kaluuya, Paul Raci, and LaKeith Stanfield |
This is another category that feels fairly set in stone. Daniel Kaluuya has picked up pretty much every award for his incredible work as Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah. It’s a performance that forces you to pay attention, and is the rare portrayal of a recognizable public figure that feels like it transcends imitation. Kaluuya captures the vocal patterns and presence of Hampton, but also makes the character his own, pulling off a difficult balancing act that is riveting to watch. He deserves this win, and he is almost certainly going to get it.
The only possible wrinkle that could stand in Kaluuya’s way is that, until the Oscars, he hasn’t had to compete against his co-star LaKeith Stanfield. On paper, I can see how this could be an obstacle. Stanfield is just as good as Kaluuya, and many are worried that having both of them in contention will “split the vote.” But I don’t REALLY see this happening. Going into Oscars voting, Kaluuya has the frontrunner status, so I do think that anyone worrying about their vote being split will flock to Kaluuya and bolster his chances. Also, Kaluuya and Stanfield give incredibly different performances, so they shouldn’t be competing against each other more than with the other nominees. This is still very much Kaluuya’s award to lose. But if I’m wrong and the award DOES split, then the most likely winner will be Paul Raci, who had no Wikipedia page a year ago and came out of nowhere to be a stalwart of this year’s awards season. Raci’s work is truly remarkable—as much as Sound of Metal is Riz Ahmed’s film, it doesn’t succeed without Raci’s confident and sensitive performance as Joe. In a year without the powerhouse of Judas and the Black Messiah, he’d be an easy favorite in this category.
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| Glynn Turman |
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom obviously caught the eye of the Academy’s acting branch—with Chadwick Boseman and Viola Davis being frontrunners in the leading categories—but there is a lot of great acting happening in that film. Theater veterans Glynn Turman, Colman Domingo, and Michael Potts are all excellent as members of Ma Rainey’s band, and the greatest pleasure of watching Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom was watching excellent actors bring this classic play to life. Of the three, Turman was the standout as the pianist Toledo. There was an ease to his performance that made the character lovable without giving away just how consequential the character would be by the film’s end. Everyone is excellent in the film, but Turman’s performance might just have been the one that lingered the most in my mind. In a just world, he would have been as part of the awards conversation as his leading co-stars.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Will Win: Promising Young Woman
Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari
Should Win: Judas and the Black Messiah
Should Have Been Nominated: The 40-Year-Old Version
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| Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Minari |
A lot of early speculation saw this award going to The Trial of the Chicago 7. Aaron Sorkin is arguably the biggest name amongst all the nominees, and of these films, it might be the one that most relies on its screenplay to do the heavy-lifting. It’s the wordiest—and therefore the flashiest—of the scripts. Of The Trial of the Chicago 7’s six nominations, this is also the one where it has the best chance of winning, so fans of the film might rally for it here simply because they don’t see it getting rewarded anywhere else. It could very well take this category on the night, but its frontrunner status was put in jeopardy after it was beaten by Promising Young Woman at the Writer’s Guild Awards. The WGAs quite often line up with the Oscars, and Promising Young Woman’s upset was an indication of the significant momentum that this film has been picking up in recent months. I still don’t think it has the support needed to take Best Picture, but it’s a genuine contender both here and in Best Actress, and here in particular it is on very solid footing. I’m also relying on instinct here. I personally hated Promising Young Woman and its screenplay, but between it and The Trial of the Chicago 7, it’s at least more memorable. When the film ended, I immediately had a sense it would win this award. It’s the same feeling I had after watching Jojo Rabbit, which won in the adapted category last year. And as much as I hope the Academy doesn’t disappoint me two years in a row with their screenplay picks, I feel increasingly positive that it will.
The truth is that the two frontrunners in this category are what I consider to be the worst of the nominees. Minari, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Sound of Metal all feature excellent screenplays which are far more cohesive and far more interesting than the two frontrunners. Of the three, I actually think Minari might have a chance to pull off an upset. As I’ve said with my Best Picture and Best Director analysis, I can see a scenario where Minari overperforms on Oscar night, and if it does have a larger support base than anyone’s giving it credit for, it could surprise everyone here. I would love it if the same could be said for Judas and the Black Messiah, but sadly I don’t think it’s going to happen. Perhaps it’s because Daniel Kaluuya is such a lock for supporting actor, but it feels like this film is being ignored in every other category, but I think it’s easily the best screenplay of these five. For one thing, it tells the most complete story of the five, and were it simply a well-told, intricate crime thriller, it would have enough skill to be worthy of an Oscar. But this film is also peppered with commentary and symbolism that is both imperative to the story while not distracting from it. It’s a film all about balances of power, with many moving parts, and it’s because of the strength of the screenplay that the power dynamics are as clear as they are from scene to scene. It’s so deftly handled, that it’s easy to take for granted just how intricate this screenplay is.
The 40-Year-Old Version
If
I could have added any screenplay to this category, it would have been Radha
Blank’s The 40-Year-Old Version, which showed us one of the most clear,
original new voices from a screenwriter in a long time. Blank serves as
producer, director, and star of the film as well—and she’s great wearing all of
these hats—but it is her work as a screenwriter which stands out most of all. This
is a smart, quirky, and brilliant screenplay. It may not have earned her an
Oscar nomination, but it marks the start of a promising career for Blank, and I
can’t wait to see what she does next.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Will Win: The Father
Could Win: Nomadland
Should Win: The Father
Should Have Been Nominated: I’m Thinking of Ending Things
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| The Father, One Night in Miami..., and Nomadland |
I feel like some of the discussion surrounding this category is over-complicating things. I’ve seen more than a few people argue that the winner will be Kemp Powers’ One Night in Miami… adapted from his play of the same name. The argument is that the film has a lot of industry support and that its fans will rally behind it since it was shut out of the Best Picture race. I’ve also seen plenty of people guessing the winner will be Borat Subsequent Moviefilm after it won in this category at the WGA Awards. These arguments aren’t completely lacking in merit. But they’re forgetting one thing: these films, and fellow nominee The White Tiger, were not nominated for Best Picture. And that essentially means they’re never going to win. The last time a film won for its screenplay (original OR adapted) and didn’t have an accompanying Best Picture nomination was in 2004, with Charlie Kaufman’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. For Adapted Screenplay specifically, you have to go even farther back to 1998 with Gods and Monsters. And both of these wins were before the Best Picture category was expanded beyond just five nominees. If any nominee other than Nomadland or The Father wins here, that will honestly be a huge shock.
So, between the two, which will it be? Well, for most people, the de facto frontrunner here is Nomadland, simply because it’s the one with the better shot at Best Picture. And…yeah that reasoning makes a lot of sense. There’s no reason to think that Nomadland won’t win this award. But I do think that if The Father has a shot at any category this year, it’s this one. Its screenplay is a lot flashier than the one for Nomadland, and one can argue that much of the appeal of the film is rooted firmly in the clever screenplay (deftly adapted by Florian Zeller from his play of the same name) in a way that Nomadland’s is not. And when it won Best Screenplay at the BAFTAs, it proved that this film could theoretically win over the Best Picture favorite. I would be thrilled if this happens. Of these nominees, I believe The Father is the best screenplay by far. It’s a remarkably well-crafted story, told creatively and beautifully. It’s the only screenplay of the five that actually surprised me, and it is certainly the most innovative of the bunch.
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Speaking of being innovative…earlier I mentioned that Charlie Kaufman won this award in 2004. Well, I wish he’d been in contention again this year with I’m Thinking of Ending Things. When the film came out, it had genuine buzz in this category, which eventually fizzles out once Netflix all but abandoned the film as far as awards season is concerned. But it undeniably deserved consideration. The screenplay of I’m Thinking of Ending Things is perhaps a little dense, but it’s a true work of art, and I firmly believe this is one of those screenplays that people will return to and study as the years go by.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM:
Will Win: Another Round
Could Win: Quo Vadis, Aida?
Should Win: Collective
Should Have Been Nominated: This Is Not a Burial, It’s a Resurrection
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| Another Round, Quo Vadis, Aida?, and Collective |
The clear frontrunner here is Another Round. It’s easily the most high-profile of the five nominees, and director Thomas Vinterberg’s surprise nomination for Best Director cemented its place as the one to beat in this category. A win here would not only be in recognition of this strong film (and its thrilling final moments, which truly elevate the film to extraordinary), but in recognition of Vinterberg’s career as a whole.
But this category isn’t necessarily decided. Best International Film is a category that has featured more than its share of upsets in the past, and several frontrunners with other high-profile nominations on Oscar night have ended up not winning (Amelie and Pan’s Labyrinth are my go-to examples of this). So, which films might unseat Another Round? I highly doubt it will be either Better Days or The Man Who Sold His Skin, both of which were fairly surprising nominees. I’d love for it to be Collective, my personal favorite of these five films. This documentary about corruption in the Romanian healthcare system is thrilling and timely, and easily one of the most important films of the year. It’s also only the second documentary to be nominated in this category, following last year’s Honeyland. I don’t really know if the Academy is ready to recognize a documentary in this category, but if it is, Collective would be an easy way for them to do so, as the story it tells is so wild that it feels like it could have been scripted. But if any film can beat Another Round, it’s most likely Quo Vadis, Aida?, a Bosnian war drama about a UN translator attempting to save her family. It’s tense and powerful, and while it lacks the recognizable face of Mads Mikkelsen, it features a powerhouse leading performance from Jasna Đuričić, and the sort of themes that could easily make the Academy take note.
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| This Is Not a Burial, It's a Resurrection |
As for what should have been nominated, it’s an easy pick for me this time. This Is Not a Burial, It’s a Resurrection is the first film that Lesotho has ever submitted to the Oscars, and it is one of the best films I’ve ever seen. The film follows Mantoa (the late, great Mary Twala Mhlongo), a widow struggling to hold onto her home as her village is forced to resettle. It’s pure cinematic poetry, and might just feature one of my favorite narrators ever (Jerry Mofokeng Wa). Even as someone who tries to see anything and everything that comes out each year, it’s very difficult to find African films in the U.S. An Oscar nomination could have gone a long way to raising the profile of this beautiful film, and maybe even African cinema as a whole. If you have a chance to see it, please do. It is an absolute masterpiece.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Will Win: Crip Camp
Could Win: My Octopus Teacher, Time
Should Win: Collective
Should Have Been Nominated: Dick Johnson is Dead
Crip Camp, My Octopus Teacher, and Time
My mother’s prophecies aside, Crip Camp objectively has a good shot at this. It’s a well-received film with some big-name heft behind it (the Obama’s first produced documentary, American Factory, won in this category last year). The film charts the history of the disability rights movement, and shows how many central figures in the movement all attended the same summer camp. This award tends to go towards either informative films, or feel-good films, and Crip Camp is the only nominee this year that fits squarely into both categories. It’s not just a great film on its face, but it’s easily the most Oscar-friendly of the nominees.
A win for Crip Camp would make a lot of sense, but this is one of the most open categories this year. The Mole Agent would be the only real shock if it won. Both it and Collective were on the shortlist for Best International Film, but the fact that Collective picked up a nomination in that category and The Mole Agent didn’t shows that Collective has an edge over it here. I’d actually love it if Collective won—it’s one of my favorite films of the year, and could be a dark horse in this category. But both of the foreign films are at a distinct disadvantage in this category which overwhelmingly favors American documentaries. A few months ago, many prognosticators thought the frontrunner would be Time, which chronicles Sibil Fox Richardson’s fight for her husband’s release from prison. It’s a powerful film which has consistently performed well at festivals and with various critics’ choice awards, but it’s also the most experimental of the nominees, which tends to fare less well with the Academy. It has a shot, but if it wins that will be a stark break from the Academy’s usual preferences.
Crip Camp’s closest competition therefore is My Octopus Teacher, the other Netflix doc which earned a nomination this year. If you had said this a couple of months ago, this would have been a huge surprise. There wasn’t much buzz surrounding My Octopus Teacher early on in the awards season, and its inclusion on the shortlist seemed to come out of left field. But ever since it scored a nomination, it feels like it has been riding a wave of momentum. The film, about diver Craig Foster and a friendship he forms with an octopus, is heart-warming and crowd-pleasing, and has gone from underdog to contender after winning big at the Critics Choice Awards, International Documentary Awards, PGA Awards, and BAFTAs. And while it didn’t win at the DGA Awards, it’s the only one of the Oscar nominees to be nominated at all. Momentum is on its side, and if estimates of Netflix viewership are to be believed, it’s certainly the most recognizable title with people outside of the industry. This momentum is enough that many prognosticators are naming My Octopus Teacher the frontrunner and, to be honest, it might be the smartest bet. But I just can’t bring myself to make this prediction because this movie HAS NO BUSINESS BEING IN THIS CATEGORY. It’s admittedly heart-warming and gorgeously shot, but to name this film the Best Documentary in this or any year is a slap in the face to the medium. The film makes a choice to focus on Foster’s interpretation of his octopus friend’s behavior, as opposed to presenting the footage objectively. This isn’t exactly unlike most nature documentaries, which regularly invite the viewer to anthropomorphize the actions of the animals on screen. But those at least maintain a certain air of scientific integrity. While My Octopus Teacher might be an accurate portrayal of Foster’s experience, it might as well be a scripted piece. And while the Oscars voting branch doesn’t always get this category right by any means, I don’t think it regularly gets it completely wrong. I’m hoping I’m not proven wrong.
Dick Johnson is Dead
Despite what I’m saying here, I don’t hate My Octopus Teacher. I think it’s absolutely fine, and I do understand its considerable popular appeal. But I think the main reason its hypothetical win irks me so much is that this has been a particularly strong year for documentaries. There are so many films which deserved a nomination far more than it did. All In: The Fight for Democracy, Totally Under Control, 76 Days, Boys State, The Painter and the Thief, and The Truffle Hunters are just some titles that come to mind pretty much immediately. But my absolute favorite documentary of the year is yet another Netflix title: Dick Johnson is Dead. As I mentioned when discussing Time, the Academy doesn’t tend to reward more experimental documentaries, which means this film never really had a chance. The film follows Kirsten Johnson and her father Dick, who is suffering from dementia. To help them come to terms with Dick’s declining memory, they stage a series of filmed sequences of ways that Dick could die. This gimmick serves as a framing device for Kirsten to grow her relationship with her father in his final moments. The results are profound, touching, and incredibly vulnerable. I can’t imagine anyone watching Dick Johnson is Dead and not being moved by it. I simply haven’t seen another film even remotely like it. Its originality is why it most likely missed out on a nomination this year, but it’s also what makes it truly brilliant.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Will Win: Soul
Could Win: Wolfwalkers
Should Win: Wolfwalkers
Should Have Been Nominated: The Wolf House
Soul, Wolfwalkers, and Onward
Early on in the awards season, this was looking like a two-horse race between Pixar’s latest Soul and Tomm Moore’s lush fantasy folktale Wolfwalkers. It’s a familiar David & Goliath story that tends to emerge in this category. Every year, it feels like a major studio (usually Pixar or Disney) has a major contender, but people speculate that a film with a much smaller backing might overtake it. And then…that just doesn’t happen. Last year was a great example, with I Lost My Body picking up buzz, only to be inevitably beaten by Toy Story 4. As the Academy as a whole is getting better at including more indie fare, the Animated Feature category feels like it’s going in the opposite direction. With few exceptions, this category has become increasingly predictable, and studio backing has consistently won over smaller-scale films with arguably more artistic integrity. There’s no reason to think that won’t repeat this year. Soul seems destined to earn yet another win for Pixar, and has been picking up pretty much every award on its path to do so.
Soul is not without its merits, but I will say I’m disappointed that the backlash to some of its thematic elements seems to have not dented its chances at all. The promotion for the film leaned heavily on how it’s the first Pixar film to feature a Black protagonist, but that representation proved to be fairly hollow, and many valid concerns have been brought up about the film’s treatment of race. So, I wish there was more of a chance for Wolfwalkers. The third in Moore’s Irish Folklore Trilogy (after The Secret of Kells and Song of the Sea, which also scored nominations) features the most innovative animation of this year’s nominees, and while its storytelling isn’t perfect, I at least appreciate how Moore’s films offer a subtlety not always seen in movies targeted at kids.
The Wolf House
At this point, though, I could pretty much just copy and paste my thoughts on this category from one year to the next. There is so much more exciting animation in the world than this category would suggest. And the Academy’s unfortunate tendency towards only a few major studios is incredibly short-sighted. For example, there’s no reason why the Chilean film The Wolf House couldn’t have been in consideration. This stop-motion horror film about a woman on the run from religious fanatics is a brilliant and haunting nightmare with some astonishing images and more ingenuity that anything on offer from these nominees. It’s just an example of the world of animation that seldom gets marketing attention, and even more seldom gets Academy recognition.
BEST FILM EDITING:
Will Win: Sound of Metal
Could Win: Nomadland
Should Win: The Father
Should Have Been Nominated: Dick Johnson is Dead
Sound of Metal, Nomadland, and The Father
Film Editing is the most crucial category at the Oscars which people don’t talk about. The nominees for Best Film Editing have the most overlap with Best Picture, even more than Best Director, so frequently the category acts as an indication of Academy preferences. And this year, the lineup is very different from the ones of the past few years. While quality editing takes on many, many forms, the Academy of late has been impressed primarily by flashy action when it picks its winner (look at recent winners Ford v Ferrari, Dunkirk, Hacksaw Ridge, and Mad Max: Fury Road). This year, however, there are no such nominees. There are no action movies, no war films, and no films with elaborate sequences with lots and lots of cuts. Without flashy editing to go on, the winner could very well be Nomadland simply by virtue of it being the Best Picture nominee. It’s an argument I’ve seen a lot of people making, and I do think it’s a solid argument. That being said, the winner in this category has only matched with the Best Picture winner once in the last ten years, so this is shaky ground at best.
The most compelling case, I believe, can be made for Sound of Metal proving victorious. It won this award at the BAFTAs, and it also features the best sound editing of the nominees. Sound editing and film editing are two very different skills, but the fact is that for the Academy, recognition tends to go hand in hand. The winner for Best Film Editing has matched with Best Sound Editing four of the last five years. And you’d have to go back to 2010 to find a film that won Best Film Editing without a Sound Editing nomination. This year, the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing categories have been merged into just “Best Sound,” but Sound of Metal is the only Film Editing nominee to be present there (and it’s highly expected to win). I think that factor alone might indicate it’s in the lead in this particular category.
But if I had to pick just one film to win, it would have to be The Father. I was so glad to see it nominated, because it’s not the type of film that normally earns an Editing nomination, but it absolutely deserves one. So much of why The Father works is because of its use of horror tropes and more than in any other aspect, the editing is what makes this apparent. This film is gloriously paced, and as this is a film with so many moving parts, the clarity in the storytelling is no small feat. It’s an extraordinary effort, done SO seamlessly that I fear it will get overlooked.
As for what should have been nominated, I’m once again turning to Dick Johnson is Dead. Documentaries seldom, if ever, score nominations in technical categories, but few documentaries are as cinematic as Dick Johnson is Dead. It’s a rare documentary that relies on technical wizardry, and the editing prowess is on full display in some of the film’s showier sequences. One of the cleanest bits of editing I saw all year was in a scene where it credibly looks like Dick Johnson has been killed by a falling air conditioner. But what sets the editing here apart is that it is just as skillful in less showy moments. There’s a lot happening under the surface in Dick Johnson is Dead, and more often than not, editing is used to add a layer of depth that the dialogue doesn’t refer to. The editing is the primary tool Johnson uses to make a point. It’s why the film strikes such an emotional chord, and why it’s such a thrilling film to experience.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Will Win: Mank
Could Win: Nomadland
Should Win: Judas and the Black Messiah
Should Have Been Nominated: We Are Little Zombies
Mank, Nomadland, and Judas and the Black Messiah
This is very much a two-horse race, with Mank and Nomadland leading the pack. And it’s a difficult award to predict because the approaches of both films’ cinematographers couldn’t be more different. For Nomadland, Joshua James Richards relied on natural lighting and open American landscapes, a technique that earned Emmanuel Lubezki this award for The Revenant back in 2015. Mank, meanwhile, used black-and-white film to recreate the Golden Age of Hollywood, but in high definition. Much of who wins is going to come down to voters’ personal preferences for these achievements, which makes it incredibly hard to predict.
But one thing that’s really missing from this category is showmanship. For such a visual category, I find this year’s nominees particularly blah. The cinematography of Nomadland is admittedly impressive, but it’s also not particularly stunning the way, say The Revenant was (although, for me, Nomadland is a far superior film as a whole). The natural lighting provides a solemn filter to the film, but there aren’t really images from Nomadland that stay with me. Mank is even more disappointing. There’s been a lot of talk about the efforts made to replicate what a film made in the 1940’s might look like, but aside from being in black-and-white, I didn’t find anything particularly striking about the cinematography. This is particularly disappointing because this is a movie specifically about the film Citizen Kane, which features some of the most iconic cinematography of all time. I don’t understand how or why Erik Messerschmidt didn’t utilize the same stark angles and shadows that Citizen Kane is known for. Maybe it felt like too obvious a gimmick, but it certainly would have given the film a chance for more of a visual story than it had. In fact of the nominees, the only one I’m particularly glad to see included is Judas and the Black Messiah, which of the four period pieces nominated, is the only one to both invoke a historical era and apply a contemporary lens. The cinematography is stylish and cool, but also menacing when it needs to be.
We Are Little Zombies
Judas
and the Black Messiah
is thankfully interesting to look at, but even with it, this category is
lacking a film that I would actually call gorgeously shot. A film, for example,
like the massively underrated We Are Little Zombies. Every single shot
of this movie is objectively more beautiful than anything from these five
nominees. It’s not that the cinematography of the nominees is bad, (although,
as I said, I felt Mank was a real missed opportunity) but when you look
at films like We Are Little Zombies, or Merawi Gerima’s low budget debut
Residue, or the Taiwanese film A Sun, it becomes clear that
cinematography is far more interesting artform than these nominees would
suggest.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Will Win: Mank
Could Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should Win: The Father
Should Have Been Nominated: We Are Little Zombies
Mank, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and The Father
Unlike the tight race for cinematography, Mank is far and away the favorite in this category. The Academy loves meticulous recreations, and I will admit that the level of detail in the production design of Mank is impressive. After it beat out its closest competition Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (and fellow nominee News of the World) at the Art Directors Guild Awards, Mank’s frontrunner status was all but cemented.
As in Best Film Editing, the nomination for The Father was a major surprise. And just like for Best Film Editing, I really think The Father would win in a just world. For a film that takes place primarily in one apartment, this film is visually rich, and has one of the most defined visual presences of any film this year. In some ways, the incredible, detailed work in the other nominees is obvious, but The Father is a film which, on its surface, wouldn’t necessarily have amazing production design. The choices that were made, therefore, are particularly innovative, and therefore particularly commendable. The aforementioned apartment is an impressive set piece, the same way the house in Parasite was last year. As the film gets more labyrinthian, aspects of this apartment similarly have to change and be altered, and the work on display in The Father is just as detail-oriented as its fellow nominees. It just manifests itself in a more surprising way.
We Are Little Zombies
As for who should have been nominated, I once again refer to We Are Little Zombies, which was easily one of the most visually striking films of the year. Its video game, bubble gum palate is a difficult thing to pull off, but the production design of this film nevertheless feels as cohesive as it is striking. The film is way too low profile to have ever had a shot at a nomination, but anybody who has seen this gem will undoubtedly sing the praises of its stellar design elements.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Could Win: Emma., Mulan
Should Win: Emma.
Should Have Been Nominated: Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Emma., and Mulan
Costume Design tends to be one of the most formulaic of the Oscars categories, and therefore is usually one of the easiest to predict. For starters, it’s one of the least friendly categories towards newcomers. The last time this award was won by a first-time nominee was back in 2001. That’s a whopping 20 year gap, so betting on the industry stalwarts is a reliable way to go. This year, there are only two previous nominees in the bunch, and they are undoubtedly the frontrunners—Alexandra Byrne for Emma. and Ann Roth for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Both films are, also not coincidentally, period pieces, which is also very much in line with the Academy’s tastes. It’s honestly a toss-up between the two. A couple of weeks ago, I might have given the edge to Emma., as the elaborate gowns make for the most show-stopping single pieces of any of the nominees this year. And given that last year’s winner was Little Women, Jane Austen is very much in vogue with the Academy’s costume design branch. But Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom recently beat out Emma. at the Costume Designers Guild Awards, and that alone means that the smart money is on Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Either could win, but the Academy sides with the CDGAs more often than not. And the work on Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has an emphasis on historical replication that Emma. doesn’t, which might give it a further edge to win. The dark horse here is Mulan. While the Academy traditionally has preferred period pieces, fantasy is being recognized more and more consistently. In fact, this award has gone to a fantasy film 3 times in the last 5 years. If Academy voters are actually starting to favor fantasy in costumes, it is possible that Mulan pulls an upset, as it’s far more likely to win over the only other fantasy nominee, Pinocchio.
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
My pick for what should have been nominated is the festive steampunk musical fantasy Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey. It’s a flawed movie, but the appeal it has comes primarily from its innovative design. The costumes might be over the top, but they’re cohesive and really stunning. I don’t know why Jingle Jangle couldn’t make it off of the shortlist and earn a nomination outright, but it undeniably had some of the boldest and most memorable costume pieces of the year.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:
Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Could Win: Mank
Should Win: Pinocchio
Should Have Been Nominated: Bad Hair
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Mank, and Pinocchio
For the past three years, this award has gone to work that has transformed an actor into a historical figure. And while, thankfully, this year’s nominees don’t feature an eye-roll-worthy fat suit, it’s likely that the “celebrity transformation” trend will be rewarded again. Both Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Mank would fit this criteria, but it’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom which swept the Makeup & Hairstyling Guild Awards. Viola Davis has been actively campaigning for her team, and the historical accuracy that went into the makeup & hairstyling for the entire cast (with Davis’ gold teeth being a standout piece) is the most convincing narrative of these nominees. Hairstylists Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson are already the first two Black women to be nominated in a single year, and a win for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom would be particularly historic.
While the Academy likes to award accuracy and historical detail, my own preferences are for artistry and brand-new character design. Unsurprisingly, I was personally most taken by the work in Pinocchio, Matteo Garrone’s darker take on the classic tale. The creature design is phenomenal, and transforms actors into puppets, fairies, and animal hybrids, in a way that is magical and eerily beautiful. Of all the makeup and hairstyling up for consideration, it’s the work that’s the most unusual, and the most integral to telling the film’s story.
But my favorite makeup and hairstyling of the year is, ironically, from a film called Bad Hair. The horror film follows a woman trying to move up the ranks at a television station, and visits an upscale hair salon at her boss’ request. The hairstyling is an ode to Black hair in the late 80’s, and the knowledge and attention to detail that hairstylist Nikki Wright brings to the work is remarkable. And that’s before the movie descends into the macabre and sentient weaves start attacking people. At this point, the makeup and hairstyling becomes showstopping, as the hairstyling and visual effects had to work together to literally bring the hair to life. It’s incredible work, with all of the period detail that this year’s frontrunners possess, but used in a truly unique way.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Will Win: Tenet
Could Win: The Midnight Sky
Should Win: Love and Monsters
Should Have Been Nominated: Sputnik
Tenet, The Midnight Sky, and Love and Monsters
For so many categories, the best way to predict an award is to look at the accompanying guild award, to see how the industry is leaning. This year, the top prize at the Visual Effects Society Awards went to The Midnight Sky, George Clooney’s visually lush sci-fi drama. It’s certainly a striking film, with some convincing and very cool effects, and is the sort of work the Academy has recognized in the past. But it’s hard to say it’s definitely the frontrunner. In this case, the VES Award might not really help its case. Of the many industry branches, Visual Effects has one of the smallest percentages of overlap with the Academy, and they actually diverge far more than they overlap (The Oscar and the VES have only matched once in the last five years). In fact, the last two Oscar winners in this category—1917 and First Man—weren’t even nominated for the top award at the VES Awards. So, its win is definitely not enough to secure frontrunner status for The Midnight Sky.
Instead, the frontrunner is probably Tenet. Christopher Nolan films have done very well in this category, with wins going to both Interstellar and Inception. Tenet as a whole was a massive disappointment as far as the industry is concerned—it’s one of Nolan’s worst reviewed films, and didn’t develop much audience buzz either. Whether it’s because of the pandemic, or just because the film didn’t resonate with people, nobody is talking about Tenet the way people have talked about other Nolan films. But it’s to Tenet’s advantage that…none of the other nominees in this category have really made an impact either. Tenet and Mulan are the only nominees for Visual Effects to have been recognized in any other category, for Production Design and Costume Design respectively, so nothing here is hinging on all-around Academy support. In a year without movie theaters, it’s perhaps fitting that there’s no major, game-changing frontrunner like there have been in previous years. Support for Nolan as a whole will likely be enough to push Tenet over the edge.
But, if we’re lucky, the unusual lineup of nominees will mean that the Academy turns towards an underdog. I personally would love to see Love and Monsters win. This film is genuinely delightful, and the visual effects are more memorable than any of the nominees this year. The film takes places in an apocalyptic world where giant, mutant creatures roam the planet, and the film succeeds in part because of how complete these creatures are. They’re vibrant, they’re creative, and they feel real. Upsets are not unheard of in this category, and when they happen, they tend to be in recognition of achievement from a smaller-scale film (like when Ex Machina triumphed over a Star Wars film and three Best Picture nominees including favorite Mad Max: Fury Road). Love and Monsters, which had less than a third of the budget of its closest competitor in this category, would certainly meet that qualification.
Sputnik
I will admit, though, that part of my fondness for Love and Monsters stems from my preference towards creature creation in this category. For Visual Effects, give me some sort of mythical creature over a realistic-looking explosion any day of the week. That might be why my “should have been nominated” pick this time is Sputnik. This Russian sci-fi horror film features one of the most menacing on-screen aliens since, well, Alien. It’s subtle work, but remarkably effective, and the alien creature moves convincingly and beautifully. The film’s stakes rely on believing the characters are in danger. Thanks to the excellent special effects, that danger is never in doubt.
BEST SOUND:
Will Win: Sound of Metal
Could Win: News of the World
Should Win: Sound of Metal
Should Have Been Nominated: The Vast of Night
Sound of Metal, News of the World, and The Vast of Night
One of the surest awards of the night, Sound of Metal is almost certainly going to take home Best Sound. While film is as much an auditory medium as it is a visual one, it is rare to see a film use sound in its storytelling so innovatively and effectively. As the main character, Ruben, loses his hearing, the sound design puts us in his shoes, and directs our ears masterfully, highlighting and blurring everyday sounds with intention and clarity. It’s a sound design that uses sound and silence in equal measure, and as a film that already has vast Academy support, its win here is a no-brainer. In a year without Sound of Metal, this award would most likely have gone to News of the World, Paul Greengrass’ Western remake, which features the sort of action sequences that the sound categories tended to gravitate towards (this is the first year that Sound Editing and Sound Mixing have been merged). And there is, admittedly, a chance that this happens. But I believe that these sorts of action films tend to win is in part because we don’t see a lot of films like Sound of Metal. The sound design is strong, but it’s also obvious enough to catch the Academy’s eye.
But Sound of Metal isn’t the only film this year that particularly utilized sound as part of its storytelling. One of my favorite sound designs this year was in The Vast of Night, an indie sci-fi mystery about two teens who discover a mysterious audio signal during a radio show. Due to its incredibly low budget, the sound does a lot of heavy-lifting in terms of creating atmosphere, and it’s remarkably effective. There’s some really smart filmmaking on display throughout Vast of Night, and I wouldn’t be surprised if director Andrew Patterson starts getting tapped for some larger studio projects. If that happens, expect to see his films popping up in this category in future years.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Will Win: Minari
Could Win: Soul, News of the World
Should Win: Minari
Should Have Been Nominated: A Sun
Minari, Soul, and News of the World
Let’s start with who won’t win. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are nominated twice this year, and of their two scores, Soul is getting a lot more buzz than Mank. So, it won’t be Mank. It’s also highly unlikely to be Da 5 Bloods—Terence Blanchard was robbed for his work on BlacKkKlansman two years ago, and his work is good here, but the film just clearly didn’t strike a chord with the Academy. And while Original Score should theoretically be a category judged on its own merits, it is historically a category linked to films popular throughout the Academy. In fact—and this is not something I had ever realized until write this set of predictions—the last time Best Original Score went to a film that wasn’t a Best Picture nominee was in 2002 for Frida. In fact, ever since just one Best Score award was given out (until 1998, this category was split between Drama and Musical/Comedy), only two winners have not had Best Picture nominations. That’s a pretty solid track record, and if it holds this year, that means it’s going to go to Minari. That’s the only Best Picture nominee present, and it stands to reason that fans of the film will be more than happy to support it here. A win here would certainly be deserved—it’s not just my favorite score of the nominees, it’s the only score I could actively remember after the movie was done. If Oscar voters had the same experience, it should cruise its way to victory.
But it’s probably not going to be that easy. The Best Picture correlation is enough to convince me that Minari is the frontrunner here, but most prognosticators have it sitting as a third place contender. The favorites to win for most appear to be Soul and News of the World. For News of the World, the appeal seems to be mostly tied to the fact that the composer is James Newton Howard, one of the most distinctive Oscar also-rans. Howard has been nominated for an Oscar a whopping nine times with zero wins to his name, and it’s possible that enough voters will think he’s overdue and will want to recognize his accomplishments this year. But perhaps more competitive is the score for Soul. Reznor and Ross are Academy favorites, and for Soul, they’re joined by celebrity bandleader Jon Batiste. The score for Soul apparently has a lot of fans—enough that it’s most peoples’ picks to win here—but I was rather underwhelmed by it. The compositions by Batiste and Reznor & Ross are disparate, and the score feels completely disjointed. I love Batiste’s contributions, and I wish that his jazz sensibilities had infected what Reznor & Ross wrote. For a film that features jazz so heavily, it feels odd that the score is only half jazz, and the various compositions don’t really go together. It’s a messy score, but if voters find either half of the score memorable enough, then it might buck the trend and overtake Minari. If that happens, then I’ve missed what many think is one of the easiest categories this year. But if Minari wins then I’ll have deciphered the Oscars code and pulled off an unbelievable upset! That sounds more fun!
A Sun
There were some excellent film scores this year, but the one I have returned to the most is from the Taiwanese film A Sun, which made the shortlist for Best International Film but couldn’t land a nomination. It’s a wonderful film, and its score in particular is truly haunting. It’s a stunning work that is beautiful in its own right, but in the context of the film truly elevates its artistic sensibilities and sets it apart from other, more generic crime thrillers.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Will Win: “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami…
Could Win: “Io Si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead, “Husavik (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Should Win: “Husavik (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Should Have Been Nominated: “Nobody Knows I’m Here” from Nobody Knows I’m Here
One Night in Miami..., The Life Ahead, and Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Okay, let’s be honest. This is a boring lineup. Boring, boring, boring. None of the nominees this year are bad, by any means, and on their own merits they’re all quite good songs. But…they all sound the same. The lineup this year is five rousing anthems which, unfortunately, lose their impact when they’re compared to each other. It makes it hard to objectively judge the songs, let alone figure out which one the Academy will respond to most. This means that it’s the only category this year where any song could win and I wouldn’t be wholly surprised. After some consideration, though, I do think there are three frontrunners. Diane Warren has never won an Oscar, but she has been nominated for this award twelve times, including six times in the last seven years. Now that she’s nominated again for “Io Si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead, it’s possible some voters will take advantage of the lackluster lineup and give her the award for the hell of it. But I think a stronger argument can be made for “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami. The Academy is often swayed by celebrity performers; last year, Elton John seemingly won this award by virtue of being Elton John. And this year, the most high-profile performer is definitely Leslie Odom Jr., who’s also nominated for Best Supporting Actor. It’s very possible that the support for him in that category will boost his chances here too. And that makes “Speak Now” the song to beat.
But the winner should really be “Husavik (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga. While the film it’s from is certainly the least Oscar-y from the bunch, that’s doesn’t usually matter, and the fact that it’s the least self-serious of the nominees might help it stand out. But the reason I think it should win isn’t because it’s that much better than the other nominees, it’s because it’s the only song that’s actually a significant part of the film it’s from. This category isn’t supposed to be just about how good a song is, but about how it’s used in the film, and if Oscars voters pay attention to that rule then “Husavik” is really the only option. It’s a good song, but in the context of the film it is an amazing one, which lends the film its emotional catharsis. The other nominees might complement the films they’re from, but you could take them away and the film would be exactly the same. That can’t be said for “Husavik,” and if that’s not an endorsement for it to win then I don’t know what is.
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| Nobody Knows I'm Here |
This year’s nominees don’t suggest it, but there was an opportunity for a genuinely exciting and worthy lineup of nominees this year. I would have loved to have heard the quirky “We Are Little Zombies” from We Are Little Zombies performed at an Oscars broadcast. It would have been great to see the incredibly overlooked The 40-Year-Old Version get some recognition for the mid-film rap “Poverty Porn.” And while “Husavik” lends Eurovision Song Contest its biggest musical moment, an argument could be made that the catchy “Ja Ja Ding Dong,” should have been included as well (and the fictional citizens of Husavik would certainly agree with that assessment). But if I can only pick one song that should have been nominated, I’d easily go for “NobodyKnows I’m Here” from the film Nobody Knows I’m Here. Just like with “Husavik,” this is a song that plays a huge part in the film—and the rousing performance of it at the end of the film is one of the best cinematic musical moments of 2020. Even if the film wasn’t given any attention, the song is an excellent one in its own right, and one I’ve listened to time and time again since watching the film.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:
Will Win: A Love Song for Latasha
Could Win: Do Not Split
Should Win: A Love Song for Latasha
Should Have Been Nominated: No Crying at the Dinner Table
A Love Song for Latasha, Colette, and Do Not Split
If you’ve ever read any of these predictions before, or even talked to me casually about the Oscars, then you know I’m a huge advocate for the short film categories. I look forward to watching the short films every year, and while they’re inevitably the least discussed titles on Oscars night, there’s always a tremendous amount of worth to including these categories. A lot of great filmmakers got their first Oscars recognition with short films, and while the nominees can be as uneven as in any category, there are always some real gems amongst the short film contenders. In fact, this year, one of the most important films of the broadcast is a short documentary. Do Not Split, which brings you into the heart of anti-Beijing demonstrations in Hong Kong, is an explosive film about activism which has caused a good amount of controversy in China. In fact, because of Do Not Split’s nomination, the Chinese government has called for the media to downplay the Oscars ceremony, and it might not be broadcast at all. This is a really big deal, and shows the power that documentary filmmaking can have.
The waves Do Not Split is making might propel it to victory. But I worry it might be too dark to take home the win. While the nominees in this category are frequently depressing, the winners tend to have an uplifting or heartwarming aspect to them. If that holds this year, the incredibly intense Do Not Split is at a disadvantage. The same can be said for Hunger Ward, a very good but incredibly disheartening look at child malnutrition as a result of famine in Yemen. The other three nominees all deal with serious topics, but they’re a bit easier to watch. A Concerto Is a Conversation—produced by Ava DuVernay and the New York Times—sees composer Kris Bowers interviewing his father about racism he faced as a younger man. Colette is about a French Resistance member who returns to Germany after 74 years to visit the concentration camp where her brother dies. Notably, it was made to be part of the video game Medal of Honor: Above and Beyond, and that makes Colette the first film produced by a video game studio to receive an Oscar nomination. Both films tackle heavy subjects, but focus far more on resilience and survival as opposed to the harshness of the subjects at their core. Both are more akin to the fare that Oscar voters like to reward.
But the frontrunner has to be A Love Song for Latasha. The film is an ode to Latasha Harlins, a young Black girl who was shot and killed in Los Angeles in 1991. Using interviews with Harlin’s cousin and best friend, the film imagines a different life for her while telling her story. The film elevates Harlin’s story above just her victimhood, painting a glorious and complete picture of who she was and who she could have been. It’s gorgeous and highly original, and stands out amongst these nominees as a timely and vulnerable portrait of an amazing life cut short too soon.
No Crying at the Dinner Table
It’s
a strong lineup, but I was really surprised when Carol Nguyen’s No Crying at
the Dinner Table didn’t even make the shortlist for this category. Nguyen’s
conducted private interviews with her family members, which she then played to the
family as a whole, bringing to light her family’s grief and unrequited wants.
Everything is exposed bare, which brings about incredible catharsis. It’s an
innovative and deeply personal film, and it picked up numerous accolades along
the awards circuit. It would have more than held its own amongst this strong group
of nominees.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:
Will Win: The Present
Could Win: Two Distant Strangers, The Letter Room
Should Win: The Present
Should Have Been Nominated: Regret
The Present, Two Distant Strangers, and The Letter Room
When I look at most prognosticators’ picks, it seems like the frontrunner is Two Distant Strangers. The film stars Joey Bada$$ as a man stuck in a Groundhog Day style time loop, where each day he is murdered by a police officer, only to wake up in the bed of the same one-night-stand. The Twilight Zone-esque film has an intriguing and timely premise, and has gained quite a lot of attention (including a recent Netflix release), and I’ve seen lots of comments that the film’s subject matter will place it at the top of many voters’ ballots.
There’s just one problem: this film is unwatchable. I don’t know if it’s because not a lot of people have seen it, or if it’s because nobody wants to criticize a film which was clearly so well-intentioned, but holy shit this movie is an absolute mess. The cast tries their best, but much of the dialogue is absolutely ludicrous, and the character’s choices and reactions absolutely unbelievable. It’s tonally all over the place—I’m all for subverting expectations, but Two Distant Strangers never quite seems to understand what vibe it’s going for. And that’s even if you ignore the blatant commercial for a product called Furbo which is part of the movie for some reason.
But the worst part of Two Distant Strangers, which makes it not just clumsy but wildly irresponsible, is its tendency to showcase violence against a Black man without any interest in understanding his experience. We are shown Carter’s many deaths again and again, often in graphic detail, and often in ways that directly parallel high-profile murders taken directly from the news. If I had to guess, filmmakers Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe wanted to show Carter’s numerous deaths in such gory fashion as a way to shock their audience into attention. After all, we’re bombarded with this footage on a regular basis in the news, so why pull punches here? But the effect is jarring, and not in a good way. Especially for Black audiences, watching a lengthy montage of Carter being murdered, mixed with the occasional shot of him just lying bloody on the ground, this doesn’t say anything insightful. It’s hard to know who this movie is supposed to be for, but it’s a movie with far more potential to traumatize rather than inform. And if you think this premise sounds intriguing, there are better examples of sci-fi stories which tackle this topic. The episode "Replay" of the most recent revival of The Twilight Zone is the best episode of that series, and essentially a better version of this idea. And the underrated film See You Yesterday tackles a different sci-fi trope, but is a great example of how these concepts can blend with commentary on brutality in a way that is impactful, profound, and not at all gratuitous.
The Oscars don’t always get things right, but it’s hard for me to imagine enough voters being taken with a film so poorly made. I just can’t see it actually winning, especially when there are other strong contenders in this category. The Letter Room is a solid but not extraordinary film, but it’s a possible winner simply because it’s the only film to star a celebrity. Oscar Isaac plays the leading role, and Alia Shawkat shows up as a supporting character, and while having well-known actors doesn’t always translate to Oscar glory, it can mean that voters pay a bit more attention to it. But based only on instinct, I’m picking The Present as the winner. This Palestinian film, about a father and daughter dealing with Israeli soldiers as they attempt to buy a refrigerator— is an absolute treasure. As much as I’ve seen oddsmakers say they think Two Distant Strangers will win, I’ve seen in equal measure those same oddsmakers say that The Present is their personal favorite. It’s a magical film, and one that’s strong enough that it should easily be at the top of most ballots. My prediction for it to win is perhaps unwisely swayed by my personal opinion, but I’m willing to bet enough Academy members will think the same way.
Regret
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Could Win: Yes-People
Should Win: Genius Loci
Should Have Been Nominated: World of Tomorrow Episode 3: The Absent Destinations of David Prime
If Anything Happens I Love You, Yes-People, and Genius Loci
Give or take a Two Distant Strangers, the shorts categories are really quite strong this year, and the animated category might be the strongest lineup of them all. The five nominees are not only really strong, but they’re really different, and show a variety that is missing from its feature-length counterpart category. Even the most lightweight of the nominees, Pixar’s entry Burrow (the only contender actively aimed at children) is incredibly cute and charming. If it wins, it’ll mostly be because of the Pixar name, but it’s still a delightful watch, if a bit predictable. On the other side of the predictability coin, this category features two highly experimental films. The French film Genius Loci has the most stunning animation of all of the nominees, and is glorious in its dreamlike narrative. Erick Oh’s Opera is even more unconventional—it’s tough to know if it’s even a film so much as an experience. Both will surely have their fans, but might be too “out there” to achieve the win. I think a lot of people are underestimating the Icela
ndic film Yes-People. It’s definitely the funniest of the five, which I think will score it points in a category that frequently values humor, and its quirky animation has an appealing existential comic strip vibe.
But the frontrunner is undoubtedly If Anything Happens I Love You, which, if it wins, will be Netflix’s first win for an animated film. It’s a tearjerker about a family torn apart by a school shooting, told with evocative, sparse animation that is genuinely gut-wrenching to watch. These films are all so different that it’s tough to truly say if any one is better than the other, but If Anything Happens I Love You certainly leaves an impression. It’s bound to stick in voters’ minds, and at the moment seems like it’s easily the one to beat in this strong field.
World of Tomorrow Episode 3: The Absent Destinations of David Prime
So, there you have it! My predictions in all 23 categories. Tune into the Oscars on April 25th to see if I got anything correct!
Unbelievable! So astute and cogent. And what an enormous amount of detail. I am eerily prophetic and thank you for acknowledging that.
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