94th Academy Awards Predictions: Best Picture

The film awards season has been going on for a while now. But if, unlike me, you’re not aghast at Janusz Kamiński’s snub at the ASC Awards, the awards season is probably synonymous with “The Oscars.” Nominations will be announced on February 8th, and the lineup for Best Picture of the Year is starting to take shape. For the past few years, the Academy has had protocol in place to recognize between 5 and 10 nominees, but this year they will have a full slate of 10 nominees. This change will hopefully allow for some surprises, and certainly makes the category a bit more difficult to predict. But, I have done my best. As far as I can tell, the films listed below are in the running to be in the running for Best Picture.

 

As a note, I try to keep my personal opinions out of my guessing. So me saying a movie has a good or bad chance of a nomination in no way reflects my opinion on that movie. To see a rundown of my personal favorites of the year, you can check out this post!

 

THE LOCKS:

 

The Power of the Dog

Why it will be nominated: A lot could change before Oscars night, but at this point, The Power of the Dog is my pick to win it all. Jane Campion already seems like a lock to win Best Director, and the film stands solid across other categories as well. It’s done well with critics, it’s done well with guilds, it has simply performed strongly everywhere.

 

Why it might not: A few years ago, industry prejudice against Netflix was high, and despite a heavy campaign, it was almost impossible for the platform to earn any of its films a nomination. To date, Netflix has still not snagged a Best Picture win, despite putting forth heavyweight contenders like Roma and The Irishman. That’s currently the greatest weakness I can see for its chances of winning, but I still don’t seriously see it costing it a nomination. Especially at a time when more people than ever are watching their movies on a computer screen.

 

Belfast

Why it will be nominated: If The Power of the Dog has any real competition at this point, it’s probably Belfast, which has been a contender ever since it won the coveted People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival. It’s a sweet film, and the most personal film Kenneth Branagh has ever directed.

 

Why it might not: Truth be told, there’s no way Belfast isn’t getting a nomination, but the reception for it has cooled a bit since earlier in the awards season. It has still been performing as well as expected, but there isn’t the same excitement surrounding it as there once was. There was a surprise at the SAG Awards—even though it picked up 2 nominations, both Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds were snubbed for Best Supporting Actor, which indicated that the film’s support might not be wholly dominant. Belfast is maybe going to be the most interesting film to keep an eye on when nominations are announced, is it could really go either way. It’s either going to be one of the most nominated films of the year, or it’s going to only take a handful of nominations. Even in the latter situation, however, one of those nominations will be for Best Picture

 

West Side Story

Why it will be nominated: When Steven Spielberg makes a prestige picture, it has the Academy’s attention. Even when he makes a film like The Post, which was well-received but was widely considered underwhelming, he gets a Best Picture nomination. His West Side Story is a much better and much more exciting picture than The Post, and if it wins, it’ll be the first remake of a Best Picture winner to also win Best Picture.

 

Why it might not: The elephant in the room for West Side Story is its box office returns. The industry put a lot of their hopes on this movie to bring people to the theaters, and it just didn’t happen. In a perfect world, that shouldn’t matter, and the film has been well-received regardless of audience turnout, but it might be hard for the Academy to cast their votes for West Side Story if it has the perception of not being a “winner.”

 

King Richard

Why it will be nominated: The Academy loves biopics, and of the many in the race this year, King Richard has had the best showing by far. Not much more to say, really. It’s just a movie tailor-made to receive a Best Picture nomination.

 

Why it might not: There’s no argument to be made against King Richard, but it’s also not exactly the most innovative film. Of all the films in discussion, even ones that have not been performing as well, King Richard has to be the most forgettable. If it doesn’t get a nomination, everyone will be surprised, but it’s hard to imagine anyone being all that upset—this isn’t a film people are going to rally behind. As for other awards, Will Smith has been campaigning hard to earn his first ever Oscar for this performance, but it doesn’t really have huge momentum in any other category. A screenplay nod is likely, but a win definitely isn’t. And, most damningly for its Oscar chances, Reinaldo Marcus Green isn’t even remotely a part of the Best Director race.

 

Dune

Why it will be nominated: One of the better results of the Oscars expanding Best Picture past five nominees is that genre films are more frequently recognized. It used to be that sci-fi films only rarely made it into the Best Picture race, but there have been multiple nominees in recent memory. Dune is destined to be the next one. With its dominance in the technical categories, it is like to pick up more nominations than any other film this year, including Best Picture.

 

Why it might not: While genre films have indeed gotten more attention recently, there has yet to be one with a genuine shot at Best Picture. While it has been well received, the fact that Dune is the start of a new franchise might alienate Oscar voters who tend to respond more to standalone films. Still, the secret weapon here is Denis Villeneuve, who is likely to land a Best Director nomination, and whose prestige background helps give Dune a bit of artistic cred.

 

THE FRONTRUNNERS:

 

CODA

Why it will be nominated: One of the earliest 2021 releases to generate real awards buzz, CODA is the type of pared down, feel-good movie that tends to do well at the Oscars. After last year’s nominees were criticized for being “too sad,” (a WOEFULLY bad take) CODA is exactly what the Oscars needs to make the nominees more crowd-pleasing.

 

Why it won’t: I’ve currently been wondering if CODA is simply too small scale to really make an impression at the Oscars. Sundance films rarely maintain momentum, and while it looks like CODA is going to be an exception, its early release does leave it slightly vulnerable. I’m also always wary of a film that feels like a lock for Best Picture but doesn’t have any buzz in categories like Director and Editing, as those are usually categories which overlap. If another film lower down on this list pulls an upset, CODA has a chance to simply be edged out. It’s also worth noting that, despite some great performances from deaf actors Troy Kotsur, Daniel Durant, and Marlee Matlin (who also produces), the film has received significant criticism from the deaf community for its basic story. Unfortunately, I don’t see that criticism making much of a difference to the Academy, but it is nonetheless worth mentioning.

 

Don’t Look Up

Why it will be nominated: Don’t Look Up wasn’t finished until recently, meaning it bypassed the festival circuit. Still, given that Adam McKay’s last two films received Best Picture nominations, and given the stacked ensemble cast, it has always been at least a part of the conversation even before anyone had seen it. Since its release, it has been doing really well at the various guild awards racking up nominations in top categories at big ceremonies like the PGAs, DGAs, WGAs, and SAG Awards. But while recognition from these branches is usually key, I think an even more compelling case for Don't Look Up's chances is that it’s been nominated by more technical categories as well. Even fans of the film would probably agree that there wasn’t anything particularly notable about, say, its production design, costume design, or its makeup and hairstyling. And yet the respective guilds for these categories ALSO nominated Don’t Look Up, in what can only be an attempt to reward the film as a whole. This demonstrates that it has broad support throughout the industry, which launches it to the top tier contenders like a rocket trying to explode a comet.

 

Why it won’t: If Don’t Look Up gets a Best Picture nomination as expected, it will be the worst critically-reviewed Best Picture nominee in recent memory. It has a Rotten Tomatoes score of 56%! You’d have to go a decade back to find a Best Picture nominee with a lower Rotten Tomatoes score (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close). And you’d have to go all the way back to 1969 for a lower score before that! There has been much discussion about how good or bad this movie actually is (with McKay himself receiving backlash for his flippant response to the criticism of the film). While Rotten Tomatoes is far from a perfect system of grading, a film that was this panned really isn't what one imagines as a Best Picture contender. To be clear, I DO indeed expect it to get a nomination, but given how divisive it has been, I don’t want to just assume it’s a sure thing.

 

And, look. I try to keep my personal feelings out of this particular analysis, but…how is this seriously a contender for a Best Picture nomination? This movie is an absolute mess. It's really bad. Really, really bad. Not just "not Best Picture material" bad, this is one of the worst movies of the year. Look, I didn’t like The Big Short, but a lot of people seemed to, so I guess it made sense as a Best Picture nominee. Then everyone felt “meh” about Vice and it still got a Best Picture nominee. Now, most people agree that Don’t Look Up is garbage and it’s STILL IN CONTENTION?! What hold does Adam McKay have over this industry? Why are we rewarding him? He must be stopped. This film deserves to be forgotten. The fact that it hasn’t been makes me so unbelievably angry.

 

Licorice Pizza

Why it will be nominated: Anytime Paul Thomas Anderson makes a film, there’s a chance it will be an Oscar contender. He’s beloved by the industry and the public alike, and his latest film is exactly the sort of prestige “indie” film that the Oscars likes to include.

 

Why it won’t: From a prognosticator’s point of view, Licorice Pizza is the type of movie that makes awards season speculation interesting. This one is on the bubble in a lot of categories—it’s in a position to either overperform or underperform to a huge degree. I do think it will get a Best Picture nomination, but I could see a situation where she doesn’t score a single one (or maybe just one for Original Screenplay). I could also see it doing VERY well. The big category is going to be Best Director. If Paul Thomas Anderson gets a Best Director nomination, then it’s in the running for Best Picture. If not, then it might be dead in the water.

 

tick, tick…BOOM!

Why it will be nominated: One of the biggest surprises of the awards season has been how well tick, tick…BOOM! has done. Initially, the buzz for this film all surrounded star Andrew Garfield, but as his odds of winning have grown, so has the reception for the film as a whole. A lot of the titles on this list have either remained steady or are starting to lost momentum. This is one of the few films that’s actually on an upswing, and seems to have a lot of goodwill towards it within the industry.

 

Why it won’t: Movie musicals are not as popular a genre as they once were, and it has been decades since there was more than one musical in the Best Picture lineup. In a year where Steven Freakin’ Spielberg made a remake of one of the most beloved musical films of all time, tick, tick…BOOM! is decidedly the “other” movie musical in the running. This movie also feels inherently theatrical, which I think is to its benefit, but it might alienate some members of the voting branch for that reason.

 

Drive My Car

Why it will be nominated: This is definitely my gutsiest pick. Drive My Car is one of the most acclaimed films of the year, and picked up a large number of Best Picture titles at various critic’s choice events. It’s the current frontrunner to win Best International Film, so those filling out nominating ballots should have it on their radar. A few years ago, the makeup of the Academy was expanded and, as a result, a greater percentage of non-American voters were added. The significance of this has been fairly notable in the Best Director category, where foreign-language film directors like Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War and Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round have snuck in fairly unexpectedly. While neither of those films managed to earn Best Picture nominations, with the expansion to 10 nominees, I feel like Drive My Car has a genuine chance to be the biggest surprise on nomination day.

 

Why it won’t: This is ultimately speculation on my part. It’s an educated guess, but until it happens there’s not really a precedent for a movie performing like Drive My Car to be launched to Oscar glory. Most likely due to it being in another language, it hasn’t performed as well with the guilds as it has with the critics. And unfortunately, those guild awards are far more significant indicators than whatever critics think. Even though some of its omissions from the guild awards are because it wasn’t eligible, that doesn’t change the fact that it’s not been at the front of everybody’s lips this awards season. That might mean it doesn’t have the buzz for voters to really give it consideration.

 

THE POTENTIAL UPSETS:

 

The Lost Daughter

Why it might pull an upset: Maggie Gyllenhaal's directorial debut has received rave reviews, and might just earn star Olivia Colman her second Oscar for Best Actress. An indie darling, it looks likely to win Best Feature at both the Independent Spirit Awards and the Gotham Independent Film Awards, both of which were won last year by future Best Picture winner Nomadland. While I'm calling it a potential upset, it's maybe more accurate to say it's a dark horse. If this film proves to have widespread support within the Academy, we might see it pop up in the screenplay category, and maybe even a nomination for Colman's co-stars Jessie Buckley or Dakota Johnson.

 

Why it probably won't: I love The Lost Daughter, and am glad it has been doing well at the independent film awards, but it might not be flashy enough to make it to the Oscars. But perhaps most concerning for this film is that it's one of many films that Netflix is stumping for. Their awards campaign is leaning on The Power of the Dog, Don't Look Up, and now tick, tick...BOOM!, which means that The campaign for The Lost Daughter is a little less focused, with Colman getting the brunt of the attention. If it can score a surprise nomination over one of the other Netflix films in the running, that's an indication that this film is more beloved than expected, and watch it get a more substantial push before the ceremony.

 

Nightmare Alley

Why it might pull an upset: The last time Guillermo del Toro directed a film, it won Best Picture. That means that any future film of his needs to be at least a consideration for the Oscars. Nightmare Alley, del Toro's take on film noir, is the director's most Oscar-friendly film to date. It has gained some momentum recently with some key nominations, like Best Picture at the Critic's Choice Awards, Best Adapted Screenplay at the WGA Awards, and one of the top ten films of the year by the National Board of Review.

 

Why it probably won't: Interestingly, if The Shape of Water hadn't won Best Picture, I think Nightmare Alley would be one of the leading contenders. The Academy loves when someone is "overdue," and if not for that win, del Toro would be one of those beloved figures who gets recognized in part because it's "their time." Conversely, they don't love giving repeat wins to those who have already won in major categories. Even voters who like Nightmare Alley might forego placing it on their ballots specifically because del Toro just won. I think we'll see it show up in a lot of the technical categories (especially Production Design), but Best Picture is a much longer shot.

 

Being the Ricardos

Why it might pull an upset: For most of the awards season, Being the Ricardos has mainly been in contention for other awards, with it eyeing Best Actress for star Nicole Kidman, and MAYBE Best Original Screenplay for Aaron Sorkin. But something has happened recently. Out of nowhere, Javier Bardem started gaining attention for his performance (including at the crucial SAG Awards), and then it landed a Best Picture nomination at the PGA Awards. At the very least, this suspects that the industry like Being the Ricardos a lot more than initially expected. This is great news for Kidman, and might be great news for the film as a whole. All of a sudden, it's entered the Best Picture conversation.

 

Why it probably won't: Being in the conversation is great, but its buzz is a lot more of a murmur than a roar. Kidman is a sure thing, Best Picture is still a long way away. The nod from the PGA Awards is most likely a fluke.

 

House of Gucci

Why it might pull an upset: House of Gucci has probably had the most ups and downs out of any movie this awards season. At some awards ceremonies it has done really well, and at some it has been completely shut out. Its most significant showing is its three nominations at the SAG Awards (including Best Ensemble), which shouldn’t be discounted—actors make up more of the Academy than any other group.

 

Why it probably won’t: Its showing at the SAG Awards is enough to give pause, but without those, House of Gucci has a pretty weak case. The fact that it was snubbed by the Producers Guild is difficult to overlook in particular, as that was a branch that it should have had a good shot with. The awards campaign seems to be focusing its efforts on securing nominations for Lady Gaga and (sigh) Jared Leto instead of Best Picture. It shouldn’t be counted out, but especially compared to my other potential upsets, it doesn’t seem to have insider support.

 

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Why it might pull an upset: If the rules for Best Picture voting were the same as the last few years, The Tragedy of Macbeth wouldn’t have stood a chance. But with the nominees expanded to ten films exactly, it feels likely that there’s going to be at least one wild card present. This last happened in 2010 and 2011, and opened the door for animated films (Up and Toy Story 3), genre films (Black Swan and District 9) and smaller-scale films with less buzz around them (Winter’s Bone, The Blind Side and A Serious Man). I could definitely see The Tragedy of Macbeth claiming one of these wildcard spots. A lot of the people involved are Academy favorites; Frances McDormand is a rare 3-time acting winner, and Denzel Washington has gotten a nomination in the past even for his lesser performances (anyone remember Roman J. Israel, Esq.?. Director Joel Coen in particular is an Academy favorite, as Coen Brothers movies have frequently performed better at the Oscars than they have at other previous ceremonies—like when The Ballad of Buster Scruggs received a screenplay nomination seemingly out of nowhere.

 

Why it probably won’t: Every argument that The Tragedy of Macbeth will earn a Best Picture nod is purely hypothetical. It simply hasn’t been gaining the type of recognition it needs to be in contention, and I honestly feel like voters don’t know what to do with it. Being a Shakespeare adaptation is already alienating for some voters, and fans of the Coen Brothers might be disappointed because it doesn’t “feel” like a Coen Brothers movie. I still think the film has a chance to overperform, and might pick up nominations for Washington, McDormand and maybe even Coen in Best Director. But Best Picture seems a bit too far out of reach.

 

THE LONGSHOTS:

 

A Hero

In discussing Drive My Car, I’ve already mentioned that I could see an international film sneaking into the nominees. While Drive My Car does seem like the best option, we shouldn’t count out A Hero. The Oscars really loves director Asghar Farhadi, who has already won 2 Oscars previously, and A Hero’s later release means it might have more of a shot against Drive My Car than previously thought. If so, Farhadi might sneak in over Hamaguchi.

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Look…if the internet had its say, the latest Spider-Man film would get in no problem. But buzz online doesn’t translate to actual awards chances. The Academy doesn’t care about No Way Home. It’s just not happening. But I wanted to at least address the fact that a lot of people want it to happen.

 

But what do you think? Which film are you rooting for? Let me know, and tune in with me on February 8th to see how my predictions turn out? And you can read my predictions in all other categories here.