The
nominees for the 91st Academy Awards are going to be announced on
January 22nd. It’s truly been a great year for film, and the awards
circuit has been pretty unpredictable. Lots of films that seemed like Oscar
bait ended up barely making an impression, while several more unconventional
films have become awards season stalwarts. History could truly be made on
Oscars night. But, before we think about who the winners will be, it’s time to consider
who the nominees would be. I’ve pored through all of the lesser-known awards of
the season and kept up on the latest Oscars buzz and now present to you my
predictions for the nominees in all 24 categories. I’ll probably get a lot
wrong, but hopefully my analysis can help you out if you want to make your own
predictions.
Also,
while I occasionally can’t help myself, this article is purely about what I
think the nominees WILL be. Me saying a film will get a nomination has nothing
to do with whether I think it should. It’s what one has to do if you’re going
to be an Oscars prognosticator. If you want to know what I think should be nominated, then check out the winners
and nominees at the 4th Annual Miles Awards, which I think we can
all agree are far superior to the Academy Awards anyway.
And
now, here is my in-depth analysis and predictions for the nominees in all
categories. Enjoy!
BEST PICTURE:
 |
| Roma, A Star is Born, and The Favourite |
At
the moment, there are four films that are surefire bets for a Best Picture
nomination. A Star is Born has been a
frontrunner ever since its enthusiastic reception at the Venice Film Festival,
and The Favourite and Roma have been sweeping the various
Critic’s Choice Awards and gaining momentum all season long. All three are
locks for a nomination and seem to be the frontrunners to win the award. While
it won’t win, I also think Green Book
seems safe to receive a nomination. It won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF,
which is one of the most reliable predictors we have—9 of the 10 most recent
winners have earned nominations. It’s also a traditionally Oscar-y film in a year
where a lot of the most buzzed-about films are more unusual choices for the
Academy, and I imagine will have strong support from the older Oscar voters who
don’t care about the backlash it has received. It’s far from the first time
that a problematic film will be among the roster.
Other
strong contenders for a nomination are BlacKkKlansman
and Black Panther, which is really
exciting because both were seen as longshots as opposed to strong contenders right
after their release. As is often the case with the Oscars, this perception had
nothing to do with the films’ quality. Both were released early in the year,
which often doesn’t bode well for awards consideration, and neither is typical
Oscar fare—no superhero movie has ever gotten a Best Picture nomination, and
neither has any Spike Lee film. But their awards season track record has been
essentially spotless and it looks like both will be making history when the
nominations are announced.
If Beale Street Could
Talk has
been a likely Best Picture nominee ever since it was announced as Barry
Jenkins’ follow-up project to Moonlight,
and it still looks like a solid bet for a nomination. It’s done really well on
the awards circuit, but it does have two major gaps that keep it from being a
surefire thing: it was shut out at both the SAG Awards and the PGA Awards. Both
are major awards for Oscars prognosticators. Of the 43 Best Picture nominees in
the last five years, only 5 didn’t receive a PGA nomination. Being shut out of
the SAG Awards isn’t necessarily a kiss of death (Roma was also shut out) but this feels like a movie that was
custom-made for the SAG Awards, so its exclusion there is slightly more
worrying. So while I do think it’ll get a nomination, there are a few
indications that this might a surprise snub. Another film in a similar
situation is Vice. Adam McKay’s Dick
Cheney biopic has been an awards circuit mainstay, and based on accolades
alone, there seems to be every indication that it’ll be a Best Picture nominee.
But, due to the film being released really late in the year, a lot of those
nominations it received were announced before any reviews for the film were
released. And those reviews were mixed at best. The film currently has a 62%
approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which would make it the lowest critic’s
score for a Best Picture nominee since Extremely
Loud and Incredibly Close seven years ago. Even The Blind Side managed to get 66%. The poor reviews haven’t seemed
to dampen the film’s awards season momentum, but does suggest it’s on shakier
ground than its list of accolades might suggest.
Then
we have a bunch of wild cards. Bohemian
Rhapsody never felt like an Oscars contender due to its notoriously rocky
development process, mixed reviews at best (it’s on par with Vice at 62% on Rotten Tomatoes), and of
course the involvement of persona non grata Bryan Singer. A lot of people
started wondering if it might crack the Best Picture nominees after its
surprise win at the Golden Globes, but the Golden Globes are pretty
meaningless, as there’s zero overlap between the HFPA and the Academy. But its
win did serve as a reminder of how popular this movie was with audiences, and
its surprise nomination at the PGA Awards combined with Rami Malek’s acclaimed performance
might help it sneak in completely under the radar. There’s also First Man, Damien Chazelle’s Neil
Armstrong biopic, which was once seen as an Oscars frontrunner but has been
underperforming all awards season long. It seems to be following the path of
Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs—a one-time
frontrunner that ultimately falls short at the Oscars after audiences didn’t
respond to it the way critics did. But there’s a chance it’ll be more like The Post—a similar frontrunner
fallen-from-grace that still managed to squeak into the Best Picture lineup
last year.
Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Leave No Trace are two quiet indies which don’t have the splashy
awards campaigns behind them that the other films I’ve mentioned have. They
also are the only films that I’ve mentioned that have women directors, and on
top of their quality, that factor might earn them some extra consideration from
voters. Can You Ever Forgive Me? is
already in the Oscars conversation for actors Melissa McCarthy and Richard E.
Grant, so perhaps a Best Picture nomination will follow. Leave No Trace is less buzzed about, but there seems to be a concerted
effort to recognize the work of director Debra Granik, which might allow the
film to slip in under the radar. But if the Academy is going to recognize an
arthouse indie this year, I think it’s more likely to be First Reformed. I’m going on instinct rather than the numbers here,
but the film has been doing far better on the awards circuit than I ever would
have predicted. It’s clear that the film, its director (Paul Schrader), and
star (Ethan Hawke) all have a considerable amount of goodwill in the industry,
and it seems cut from the same cloth as other indies to earn surprise Best
Picture nominations (like A Serious Man,
Winter’s Bone, The Tree of Life, and Amour).
It’s hardly a lock, but of the wild cards, it just feels the most likely to me
even if most would consider it a surprise.
My Predictions:
A Star is Born
The Favourite
Roma
Green Book
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
If Beale Street Could
Talk
First Reformed
Vice
Don’t Count Out:
First Man
Bohemian Rhapsody
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Leave No Trace
BEST DIRECTOR:
 |
| Spike Lee, Alfonso Cuaron, and Yorgos Lanthimos at work |
The
Best Picture and Best Director category always have a bit of a link between
each other. Since the number of Best Picture nominees was expanded to more than
5, there has only been one time a film has been nominated for Best Director
without being a Best Picture nominee (Foxcatcher,
and its director Bennett Miller). The Best Picture category also tends to show
the Academy’s hand a little bit, suggesting which films have the most support.
For example, last year, Martin McDonagh’s exclusion from the category was what
gave The Shape of Water the edge over
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
when the two had once seemed neck-and-neck in the Best Picture race. Because of
that, Bradley Cooper, Alfonso Cuaron, and Yorgos Lanthimos are the most obvious
choices for nominees because their films have the best chance in the Oscar race.
That
leaves two spots left for the directors of the four other most likely Best
Picture nominees: Ryan Coogler, Peter Farrelly, Barry Jenkins, and Spike Lee.
Of the four, I think Farrelly has the strongest shot. Green Book has consistently shown it has a lot more support than most
would think, and this is the directorial equivalent of a prolific comedic actor
taking on a dramatic role, which the Oscars always love. But if Farrelly doesn’t get a nomination, then we can
see history in this category. If any combination of Coogler, Jenkins, and Lee
get nominations it will be the first time in Oscars history that two black
directors are nominated in the same year, which would be sensational. Of the
three, I think Coogler has the weakest shot. I’m still skeptical of just how well
Black Panther will fare with the
notoriously snobby Academy, and while I think it will do well in the technical
categories, they might not be ready to give a Marvel movie a Best Director nod.
Between Jenkins and Lee, I give Lee a bit of an edge. As acclaimed as If Beale Street Could Talk is, it’s not
the revelation that Moonlight was two
years ago. Compare that to BlacKkKlansman,
which most critics cite as some of Spike Lee’s best work to date. Between these
two prominent industry personalities, I feel like the story behind Lee’s
direction this year is closer to what the Academy usually responds to.
Of
course, there can be upsets. In my Best Picture analysis, I already said why
I’m skeptical about the support for Vice,
but since Adam McKay got a DGA nomination he is definitely part of the
conversation. If my instincts are right and First
Reformed pulls an upset to score a Best Picture nomination, there’s a slight
chance Paul Schrader could score a nomination as well. First Man might be on shaky ground in the Best Picture race, but
it’s a technical marvel which the Academy loves to recognize a director for, so
Damien Chazelle can’t be counted out here. Lastly, there’s Debra Granik, who just
like her film Leave No Trace, has
murmurings of support. I think it’s too crowded a year for her to get serious
attention, but it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility.
My Predictions:
Alfonso
Cuaron—Roma
Bradley
Cooper—A Star is Born
Yorgos
Lanthimos—The Favourite
Peter
Farrelly—Green Book
Spike
Lee—BlacKkKlansman
Don’t Count Out:
Barry
Jenkins—If Beale Street Could Talk
Adam
McKay—Vice
Ryan
Coogler—Black Panther
Paul
Schrader—First Reformed
Damien
Chazelle—First Man
Debra
Granik—Leave No Trace
BEST LEADING ACTRESS:
 |
| Emily Blunt in Mary Poppins Returns, Lady Gaga in A Star is Born, and Olivia Colman in The Favourite |
The
Oscars buzz for A Star is Born has
been considerable since it was first screened, but the buzz for its titular
star Lady Gaga has been even stronger. She’s still the one to beat, and is all
but guaranteed a nomination. Across the awards circuit, the other four most
constant presences have been Olivia Colman, Melissa McCarthy, Glenn Close, and
Emily Blunt for The Favourite, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, The Wife, and Mary Poppins Returns respectively, as all four have consistently
done really well throughout the awards season. But even though the five
actresses I’ve mentioned seem like locks on paper, it’s a particularly strong
year for leading actress performances, which could lead to an upset.
Yalitza
Aparicio’s work in Best Picture frontrunner Roma
might prove too powerful to ignore. Nicole Kidman, Viola Davis, and Carey
Mulligan give performances in Destroyer,
Widows, and Wildlife that at one
point had a lot of buzz, and all three are awards season stalwarts. Lastly, the
indie crowd is throwing its support behind Regina Hall in Support the Girls. It’s a wildcard, but she’s gaining considerable
momentum late in the game. These strong performances are nipping at the heels
of the five presumed nominees.
My Predictions:
Lady
Gaga—A Star is Born
Olivia
Colman—The Favourite
Glenn
Close—The Wife
Melissa
McCarthy—Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Emily
Blunt—Mary Poppins Returns
Don’t Count Out:
Yalitza
Aparicio—Roma
Viola
Davis—Widows
Nicole
Kidman—Destroyer
Carey
Mulligan—Wildlife
Regina
Hall—Support the Girls
BEST LEADING ACTOR:
 |
| Christian Bale in Vice, Ethan Hawke in First Reformed, and Bradley Cooper in A Star is Born |
Compared
to the Leading Actress category, Best Actor is far shakier, but the
frontrunners have nonetheless started to come into form. The four strongest
bets for me are Bradley Cooper in A Star
is Born, Viggo Mortensen in Green
Book, Christian Bale in Vice, and
Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody.
Cooper and Mortensen are both outshined by their co-stars who have far more
Oscar buzz surrounding them. But Cooper is helped by his high profile as a Best
Director contender this year, and Mortensen is helped by the fact that he’s the
sole “leading actor” submitted in a film that really does clearly have two
leads. Bale and Malek, on the other hand, both have a leg up considering the
Academy’s penchant for physical transformations, and these two prosthetic-aided
performances are the sort of biopic bait that the Oscars love to reward.
That
leaves just one spot and quite a few options to fill it. At the SAG Awards,
which are often a reliable indicator of the Oscars acting lineup, that fifth
spot goes to John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman.
I thought Washington was fantastic, and personally thinks he gives the best
performance out of any of the other leading actors I’ve currently named, but
the SAG nomination was a bit of a surprise, as he hasn’t been gaining a ton of
momentum with the various Critics’ Choice Awards. A more decorated performance
is that of Ethan Hawke, who is First
Reformed’s strongest chance at a nomination in any category and has been
picking up a ton of accolades for his work so far.
Also
in the running as potential dark horses are Willem Dafoe in At Eternity’s Gate and Ryan Gosling in First Man. Both give acclaimed
performances that generated initial buzz that has since died down. But the
acclaim surrounding the performances are enough to give them upset material at
least, especially since the Academy loves to recognize actors in biopics. Lastly,
we have Clint Eastwood in The Mule.
Neither the film nor Eastwood are really on anyone’s radar anymore, but the
thing is that the Oscars really, really, REALLY love Eastwood. American Sniper, Eastwood’s last Oscar-y
film, had not been doing great on the awards circuit leading up to the Oscars,
but then scored a bunch of nominations. So I don’t think it’s ever safe to
count him out of the Oscars entirely. And with that 5th nomination
really up in the air, he just might sneak in.
My Predictions:
Bradley
Cooper—A Star is Born
Viggo
Mortenson—Green Book
Christian
Bale—Vice
Rami
Malek—Bohemian Rhapsody
Ethan
Hawke—First Reformed
Don’t Count Out:
John
David Washington--BlacKkKlansman
Willem
Dafoe—At Eternity’s Gate
Clint
Eastwood—The Mule
Ryan
Gosling—First Man
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
 |
| Emma Stone in The Favourite, Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk, and Rachel Weisz in The Favourite |
In
The Favourite, Rachel Weisz and Emma
Stone engage in a bitter rivalry to earn the favor of The Queen of England. The
Oscar race might end up being eerily similar. Both are locks for a nomination,
and it seems likely to me at this point that one of them will go on to win. This
double act is at the front of the leaderboards.
Following
the two favourites favorites is Regina King, who has had a stellar
awards season for her performance in If
Beale Street Could Talk. She’d, in fact, probably be the frontrunner to win
the award if not for her shocking snub at the SAG Awards. It’s essentially
unheard of for someone to win an acting Oscar without a SAG nomination under
their belt. In the 24 years that the SAG Awards have existed, only two people
have won an acting Oscar without having been nominated at the SAG Awards
(Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained
and Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock),
and the Supporting Actress category in particular is on a 10 year streak of
matching the Oscars winner for winner. Still, while I think it might have
killed her chances of winning, that particular snub feels like a fluke, and
given how well she’s done in all other awards ceremonies, she feels like a safe
bet for a nomination for sure.
Next
in contention we have three performances of actresses playing the supportive
wives of their more high profile husbands: Amy Adams in Vice, Claire Foy in First Man,
and Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased. Of
the three, Adams is the most likely nominee, having most consistently picked up
nominations this year, including at the SAG Awards. Foy and Kidman might not
have the same accolades lined up this year, but both do strong work in roles
that feel like they were written expressly for Oscar consideration, so it’s
hard for me to count them out completely.
But
since Foy and Kidman’s awards season track records have been worse than
expected, it opens up the door for some weirder performances from less Oscar-y
films to make the cut. Weirder performances like Emily Blunt in A Quiet Place and Margot Robbie in Mary Queen of Scots. The Academy is
notorious for ignoring horror movies, which is a knock against Blunt, and Mary Queen of Scots is just a strange
movie all around which is a knock against Robbie, but both did surprise
prognosticators by getting SAG nominations, so neither should be counted out
entirely. Then there’s Natalie Portman in Vox
Lux and Elizabeth Debicki in Widows.
Both were once seen as Oscar contenders due to reviews citing their work as
highlights, but both the films and the performances have failed to make the
expected impression on awards season. Still, in a thin year for the category,
things can get unpredictable.
My Predictions:
Rachel
Weisz—The Favourite
Emma
Stone—The Favourite
Regina
King—If Beale Street Could Talk
Amy
Adams—Vice
Nicole
Kidman—Boy Erased
Don’t Count Out:
Margot
Robbie—Mary Queen of Scots
Claire
Foy—First Man
Emily
Blunt—A Quiet Place
Elizabeth
Debicki—Widows
Natalie
Portman—Vox Lux
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
 |
| Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mahershala Ali in Green Book, and Sam Elliott in A Star is Born |
Much
like Best Supporting Actress, this is a weaker category this year, with only a
few solid contenders. The difference is that, unlike Supporting Actress, the
well of alternatives is pretty dry too. A lot of the likely nominees are there
less because of a swell of momentum surrounding their work and more because
they seem to be doing well on the awards circuit by default.
At
the front of the pack is Mahershala Ali for Green
Book. It’s honestly ridiculous that he’s entered as a supporting actor
instead of a leading one—a move that was clearly done to maximize his Oscar
chances. This is nevertheless looking like a move that paid off handsomely, as
Ali seems poised to win his second Best Supporting Actor Oscar in three years.
At the very least, he’s a lock for a nomination. The other best bets for a
nomination are Richard E. Grant for his excellent work in Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Timothee Chalamet for his not quite as
excellent work in Beautiful Boy, a
so-so performance in a forgettable film that perhaps epitomizes the lack of excitement
surrounding this category in general.
Rounding
out the likely contenders are Adam Driver in BlacKkKlansman and Sam Elliott in A Star is Born. Driver is great, but his performance is not flashy,
and it’s been a pleasant surprise to see just how well he’s done on the awards
circuit this year. Elliott also does good work, but he has the smallest
screentime out of any name I’ve mentioned so far, and is already competing for
attention with two more buzzed-about performances in the same film. Like
Driver, he was initially seen as more of a wild card than a contender, but has
turned up time and time again in ceremonies leading up to the Oscars. Still, after
Driver and Elliott joined Ali, Grant, and Chalamet in the SAG nominations, this
group of five solidified itself as the likely Oscars lineup this year.
As
far as upsets go, there’s a strong swell of fans rooting for Michael B. Jordan
to get a nomination for Black Panther.
Ever since Heath Ledger’s posthumous win, the villains in big commercial films
have been mentioned in Oscar conversations and it never actually gets off the
ground. If he wasn’t even recognized by the notoriously starry-eyed Golden
Globes, his Oscar chances seem slim. His Black
Panther co-star Daniel Kaluuya similarly had some initial buzz for his
psychopathic performance in Widows,
but once it became clear that Widows wasn’t
going to be an Oscars favorite, Kaluuya’s chances dried up. A supporting
performance in a more buzzed-about film is Sam Rockwell in Vice. After winning this category last year, playing George W. Bush
seems like it should be a slam dunk for Rockwell, and his performance has been
well-received. But the screenplay doesn’t really give him a chance to show any
depth in his portrayal, and while Rockwell does his best, it just lacks the
completeness of characterization to make him much of a contender.
Looking
at this “meh” lineup, I can’t help but ask how on earth no one is talking about
Russell Hornsby’s work in The Hate U Give.
This is a wonderful performance, but more than that, it’s the type of role that
the Oscars usually love to reward. It just feels like he should be a shoo-in
for a nomination, or even for a win. Yet neither Hornsby nor the film has made
the sort of splash it really should have. But, who knows, maybe the Oscars will
pleasantly surprise me for once and send some love to this wonderful, woefully
unrecognized performance.
My Predictions:
Mahershala
Ali—Green Book
Richard
E. Grant—Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Timothee
Chalamet—Beautiful Boy
Adam
Driver—BlacKkKlansman
Sam
Elliot—A Star is Born
Don’t Count Out:
Sam
Rockwell—Vice
Michael
B. Jordan—Black Panther
Daniel
Kaluuya—Widows
In a Perfect World:
Russell
Hornsby—The Hate U Give
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
 |
| Eighth Grade |
The
screenplay categories are always notoriously difficult to predict, as out of
all the Guild Awards, the WGAs are the ones that tend to translate to Oscar
glory the least, due to their penchant for recognizing less “Oscar-y” movies on
occasion. Still the WGA nominations are a good place to start to get a frame of
reference. This year, the Original Screenplay nominees at the WGAs are Eighth Grade, Green Book, A Quiet Place,
Roma and Vice. Of the five, Green Book, Roma, and Vice seem the most likely
to carry over to the Oscars, given that they’re also on the awards circuit for
other major categories. That leaves Eighth
Grade and A Quiet Place vulnerable,
but not completely out of the running. Of the two, Eighth Grade is the more likely to carry over to the Oscars, as Bo
Burnham’s quirky and heartwarming screenplay has been doing really all awards
season long. It has a lot in common with last year’s nominee in this category The Big Sick: both are well-reviewed
indies from a comedian turned screenwriters. Eighth Grade's screenplay in particular has also done really well with critics so I'm hoping it can sneak in, perhaps over Vice.
Likely
to get a nomination over A Quiet Place
is The Favourite, a surprising
exclusion from the WGAs which, if it’s snubbed in this category at the Oscars
too will kill its Best Picture chances. And competing for the final slot is First Reformed. It really is an Oscars dark horse, and if it does
pull off the surprise Best Picture nomination that I think it might, then it
will definitely be recognized here as well.
My Predictions:
Roma
Green Book
The Favourite
First Reformed
Eighth Grade
Don’t Count Out:
Vice
A Quiet Place
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
 |
| Can You Ever Forgive Me? |
Unlike
the original screenplays, the five nominated adapted screenplays at the WGA
Awards all seem like they might line up pretty evenly with the Oscars this
year. All of those nominees—BlacKkKlansman,
Black Panther, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk, and A Star is Born—are already Oscar-y, and
are in the running for other major awards, so there’s not much reason to
question this lineup. If any of these films are vulnerable to be left out of
the running, I’d say it’s Black Panther.
The screenplay hasn’t received as much acclaim as, say, the film’s direction,
and the WGA has nominated screenplays for superhero movies before which haven’t
made it to the Oscars, like Guardians of
the Galaxy and Deadpool. Still,
given that Black Panther is a Best
Picture contender and those other films weren’t, and given that Logan received a nomination in this
category last year, Black Panther still
seems like a good bet to clinch a nomination.
If
any film were to upset this roster it would be an upset, but it’s not out of
the realm of possibility. One of the biggest Oscar snubs in recent memory was
when Gillian Flynn didn’t score an Oscar nomination for Gone Girl, so maybe the Academy will want to correct that wrong by
nominating her work on Widows. Then
there’s Leave No Trace, which
continues to be the ultimate dark horse of this Oscars season. Once again, it’s
a film that seems unlikely to score a nomination but is JUST on the radar
enough to at least merit consideration. It and Armando Iannucci’s The Death of Stalin both scored surprise
USC nominations—a relatively new award that has been a good Oscar predictor in
the past few years.
My Predictions:
A Star is Born
If Beale Street Could
Talk
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Black Panther
Don’t Count Out:
Leave No Trace
The Death of Stalin
Widows
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
 |
| Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse |
If
you had considered this category a couple months ago, the easy frontrunner for
the win would have been Incredibles 2.
Pixar has always had dominance in this category, and the long-awaited sequel
seemed unbeatable. But it suddenly faces serious competition in the form of
another superhero film: Spider-Man: Into
the Spider-Verse. The innovative movie has won over audiences and critics
alike and has emerged as the new frontrunner for the win here. Either way, both
animated superhero films are guaranteed nominations. Also guaranteed a
nomination is Wes Anderson’s very Wes Anderson-y Isle of Dogs, and the strong sequel Ralph Breaks the Internet seems like a solid nominee too.
That
leaves a fifth spot that’s up for grabs. One potential contender is Early Man from Aardman Studios, but the
film doesn’t have the acclaim that the studio’s previous efforts have. In the
past, the Academy has often recognized some excellent indie international
animated films which might not be well-known titles, but still manage to make
the nominations due to their quality. Such films as My Life as a Zucchini, Boy
and the World, Song of the Sea, Ernest & Celestine, Chico & Rita, A
Cat in Paris, and The Illusionist
have all gotten Best Animated Film nominations since 2010. This year, there are
a lot of those in contention, but three seem to have risen from the pack as the
most likely contenders: Mirai from
Japan, Ruben Brandt, Collector from
Hungary, and Tito and the Birds from
Brazil. Mirai is the one with the
most buzz surrounding it (especially after it received a Golden Globe
nomination in this category) but the other two both sound and look more
exciting to me. Especially Ruben Brandt,
Collector which looks absolutely wild in the best way.
 |
| Ruben Brandt, Collector, Mirai, and Tito and the Birds |
Of
course, the Academy could always ignore these more obscure films and just give
a nomination to a bad movie that did well at the Box Office. After all, that’s
what happened last year with The Boss
Baby. This year, that film would be Dr.
Seuss’ The Grinch, which got bad reviews but also raked in money and had an
aggressive ad campaign that might afford it a nomination over far better films.
My Predictions:
Spider-Man: Into the
Spider-Verse
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Ruben Brandt, Collector
Don’t Count Out:
Mirai
Early Man
Tito and the Birds
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
 |
| Won't You Be My Neighbor?, Shirkers, and Crime + Punishment |
This
was a particularly strong year for documentaries, with a record number of docs
doing well at the box office. Several audience favorites like Won’t You Be My Neighbor, RBG, Three
Identical Strangers, and Free Solo
all made the shortlist for this category and have a good chance at a
nomination. But in a notoriously unpredictable category, anything can happen. Won’t You Be My Neighbor is probably the
closest thing there is to a frontrunner at this point, with RBG not far behind, but there are plenty
of films that could dethrone any of these popular titles. The Academy often
eschews what’s popular and recognizes harder-hitting docs. Crime + Punishment and Hale
County; This Morning, This Evening have both received significant critical
acclaim and have a sense of importance to them that the Academy frequently
singles out for attention. They might not have been the box office draws of the
other titles, but they’ve been building buzz since their releases. Another much-praised
documentary this year is Minding the Gap,
which has been a surprise hit from first-time filmmaker Bing Liu. A very
personal film, many are seeing it as a strong contender for a nomination,
although I’m sadly skeptical. The filmmaking is honest and vulnerable, but also
feels rough-around-the-edges and home-filmy in a way that is effective for the
film’s purposes, but which also tends to be off-putting to the Academy. Despite
its acclaim, I still see it as an underdog in the face of other more polished-seeming
films, but I’d be happy to be proven wrong.
Also
in contention we have Sundance winner Of
Fathers and Sons, profile of Nobel Peace Prize winner Nadia Murad On Her Shoulders, the wide-released
political doc Dark Money, and the
Spanish The Silence of Others. There
also exists a wildcard in the form of Shirkers—Sandi
Tan’s documentary is a wonderful oddball that I ordinarily wouldn’t peg as
Oscar fare were it not the only Netflix original on the documentary shortlist
(other contenders like The Bleeding Edge,
Quincy, and They’ll Love Me When I’m
Dead failed to make the shortlist). Netflix actually has a good track
record with the Oscars for its documentaries, and even won last year, so with
its documentary campaign entirely behind Shirkers,
this wonderful film’s chances are improved.
Rounding
out the documentary shortlist are Charm
City, Communion, and The Distant
Barking of Dogs. As the lowest-profile titles on the shortlist, they’re
certainly longshots. But, again, anything could happen in what is quite
possibly the most unpredictable category of the year.
My Predictions:
Won’t You Be My Neighbor
RBG
Crime + Punishment
Hale County: This
Morning, This Evening
Shirkers
Don’t Count Out:
Three Identical Strangers
Free Solo
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
On Her Shoulders
The Silence of Others
Dark Money
Longshots:
Charm City
Communion
The Distant Barking of
Dogs
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE
FILMS:
 |
| Roma, Shoplifters, and Cold War |
Given
its frontrunner status in the Best Picture race, it’s pretty clear that Roma is going to win this category. And
I’m certainly happy with that because Roma
is my favorite film of the year, but it’s also a shame that there’s no
contest because this was a FANTASTIC year for international films, and there
are so many worthy contenders looking for nominations. The competition is so
stiff that there’s really only one film other than Roma that I can comfortably say is a sure bet for a nomination.
That would be Cold War, a Polish film
from Pawel Pawlikowski who previously won this award for the beautiful Ida. This is a gorgeous film that swept
the European Film Awards and would have been a clear frontrunner in a year
without Roma.
Of
the remaining films on the shortlist, four films stand out as having the most
buzz: Japan’s Shoplifters, Lebanon’s Capernaum, South Korea’s Burning, and Colombia’s Birds of Passage. All four premiered at
Cannes and immediately received tremendous acclaim, and have continued to pick
up accolades. On paper, it looks like three of these four films will be joining
Roma and Cold War as the nominees.
But
there’s one thing that bugs me about that lineup: Cold War would be the only entry from Europe. Ever since this
category started having nominees back in 1956 there has never—literally
NEVER—been a year with less than two nominees from European countries. That’s a
pretty solid streak, to the point that it defies coincidence. So as strong as
the individual cases may be for these four films, I feel like at least one more
spot needs to be reserved for another European film. The only two other
European films on the shortlist this year are Never Look Away from Germany and The Guilty from Denmark. Of the two, the likelier nominee is Never Look Away. It hasn’t been released
in the U.S. yet, so the critical buzz surrounding it is more muted, but it has
strong reviews, and is directed by Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck, who
previously won this award for The Lives
of Others. Compare that to The
Guilty, which is a great psychological thriller but was made on a
shoestring budget and just doesn’t have the same pedigree surrounding it as
most of the other nominees on this list.
So,
if Roma, Cold War, and Never Look Away get nominations, which
two films will join them? Of the four I’ve mentioned before, Shoplifters is the safest bet. The
second strongest-best is probably Capernaum,
which has been seen as an Oscars
contender ever since its showing at Cannes and has been a nominee at pretty
much every awards ceremony up until now. But while it’s the strongest on paper,
its reviews are easily the worst out of the films I’ve mentioned, with many
saying the film feels exploitative and cloying. Burning, meanwhile, is weirdly vulnerable primarily because of its
country of origin. Despite there being numerous brilliant Korean filmmakers who
have found acclaim and success on an international level (such as Park
Chan-wook, Bong Joon-ho, and Burning’s
director Lee Chang-dong) South Korea has unbelievably never had a single
nomination in this category. While hopefully Burning can break that streak, it does leave it on the bubble in
this competitive year. That leaves Birds
of Passage, which my gut tells me will score a nomination. The biggest case
against Birds of Passage is that it
simply doesn’t have the same buzz surrounding it as Capernaum and Burning.
But I feel like that’s because Birds of
Passage hasn’t been released in the U.S. yet. It might not have the same
name recognition, but it’s supposed to be excellent and, as the film’s two
directors have earned a nomination in this category before (for Embrace of the Serpent) I feel like it
shouldn’t be counted out as a contender.
The
only other film on the shortlist that I haven’t mentioned is Kazakhstan’s Ayka. Ayka is by far the shortlisted
film with the lowest profile. It’s the only shortlisted film that I didn’t
include when I analyzed the foreign language film race months ago, and while
I’m sure it’s wonderful, I just don’t think it has the pull needed to score a
nomination in this ultra-competitive year.
My Predictions:
Roma
Cold War
Shoplifters
Never Look Away
Birds of Passage
Don’t Count Out:
Capernaum
Burning
The Guilty
Ayka
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
 |
| First Man, Roma, and The Favourite |
The
best way to predict this category is to look at the nominees for the American
Society of Cinematographers Awards. They’ve matched the Oscars for 18 of the
past 20 nominees, and have been a perfect match for the past two years. Their
nominees—Cold War, The Favourite, First
Man, Roma, and A Star is Born—are
automatically frontrunners in this category. But that obviously doesn’t mean
they’re set in stone. Of the five, I think A
Star is Born is in the weakest standing. The cinematography is excellent,
but like in a lot of aesthetic categories, it’s rare for the Academy to
recognize contemporary films. And there’s lots of strong cinematography that
could surpass A Star is Born or upset
another presumed nominee. James Laxton previously received a nomination in this
category for his work on Moonlight,
and I think will be in the running again for his stunning work in If Beale Street Could Talk. I also think
that Rachel Morrison—who became the first woman ever nominated in this category
last year for Mudbound—has a chance
at a nomination for her work on Black
Panther. This is especially true if the Academy decides to just nominate Black Panther in every technical
category on principle, as they’re wont to do.
But
there are even more potential upsets! Several dark horse contenders wait in the
wings. Bruno Delbonnel, Janusz Kaminski, and Robert Richardson are some of the
most beloved cinematographers in the industry and all have multiple nominations
and wins under their belts. They could sneak in this year for their work on The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Ready Player
One, and A Private War
respectively. I could also see At
Eternity’s Gate, Julian Schnabel’s Vincent van Gogh biopic, potentially
score a nomination for its innovative cinematography. And, lastly, if you
REALLY want a dark horse contender, there’s the Korean film The Fortress. Although an obscure film
to be sure, it shouldn’t be ignored. Its cinematography won the Golden Frog at
the 2018 Cameraimage awards, a cinematography-focused ceremony which have
become a reliable Oscar bellwether. To gain that prize, it beat out 2nd
and 3rd placers Cold War
and Roma, both likely Oscar nominees.
Perhaps The Fortress can overcome its
obscurity and join them.
My Predictions:
Roma
Cold War
The Favourite
First Man
If Beale Street Could
Talk
Don’t Count Out:
Black Panther
A Star is Born
The Ballad of Buster
Scruggs
Ready Player One
A Private War
The Fortress
At Eternity’s Gate
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
 |
| Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns, and The Favourite |
The
best indicator for this award is to look at the nominees at the Art Directors
Guild Awards. While it’s not a guarantee, most years, all of the Oscar nominees
for Production Design were also recognized at the ADGAs. The ADGAs wisely
divide their awards into three categories: Period Film, Fantasy Film, and
Contemporary Film. I love when awards do this for design categories because,
otherwise, contemporary films with great design get ignored. For example, Get Out had brilliant costume design
last year, but it was never going to be an Oscar contender when up against
flashy period pieces and inventive fantasy garb. Similarly, in this category,
the Oscar nominees tend to fall under the Period and Fantasy categories, unless
it’s a contemporary film with a really distinct style (like La La Land two years ago). This year,
none of the Contemporary nominees at the ADGAs strike me as distinct enough to
be in contention.
That
leaves the Period films and Fantasy films. Amongst the Period Films, all the
ADGA nominees—namely The Ballad of Buster
Scruggs, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, First Man, and Roma— have a chance, although The Favourite is the only one I’d call
ashoo-in. Bohemian Rhapsody is also
looking strong; since it was shortlisted by the Oscars for Costumes and Makeup
& Hairstyling, it’s clear that the Academy is responding to the film’s
aesthetic. Another period film that wasn’t recognized by the ADGAs but which I
think has a shot is Mary Queen of Scots,
which had a distinct visual style that is very Oscar-y.
In
the fantasy category, the ADGA nominees are Black
Panther, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, The House with a Clock in
Its Walls, Mary Poppins Returns, and Ready
Player One. Of these, I don’t see The
House with a Clock in Its Walls making it to the Oscars. It’s actually a
really great production design, but the film doesn’t have a high enough profile
to compete against other more buzzed about movies. I also feel like it would be
a surprise if Ready Player One made
the cut, although its surprise appearance on the Visual Effects shortlist
suggests it might have more support than I’m giving it credit for. Still, the
production design was intentionally a bit drab, and doesn’t pop compared to the
other entries. The other three not only have a good shot at scoring a
nomination, but they’re amongst the frontrunners to win the award outright.
My Predictions:
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Fantastic Beasts: The
Crimes of Grindelwald
Bohemian Rhapsody
Don’t Count Out:
First Man
The Ballad of Buster
Scruggs
Roma
Mary Queen of Scots
Ready Player One
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
 |
| Black Panther, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, and The Favourite |
Similar
to Production Design, this is a category that tends to reward exclusively
period films and fantasy films. It also has one awards ceremony that serves as
the most reliable bellwether for the Oscars: The Costume Designers Guild
Awards. This year in the Period Film category the nominees are BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The
Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, and Mary
Queen of Scots. All five have a serious shot at scoring Oscar nominations,
especially The Favourite and Mary Poppins Returns which both had
costumes done by Oscars stalwart Sandy Powell. Meanwhile, the period films Colette and If Beale Street Could Talk also have a chance at a nomination here,
although their snubs at the CDGAs do hurt their chances. Other period hopefuls
include First Man and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.
In
the Sci-Fi/Fantasy category, the nominees are Aquaman, Avengers: Infinity War, Black Panther, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, and A Wrinkle in Time. Of these, Black Panther and The Nutcracker and the Four Realms stand out as the only genuine
contenders given that the other three haven’t been getting much recognition for
their costumes at any other awards ceremony. A surprise exclusion here in this
category was Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes
of Grindelwald, which still has a shot at an Oscar nomination even after
being left out here. For one thing, the Academy recognized the costumes of the
first film with a win, so it makes sense that they would at least nominate the
sequel. Secondly, the costume designer is Colleen Atwood, a veritable legend in
the industry.
My Predictions:
The Favourite
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
The Nutcracker and the
Four Realms
Fantastic Beasts: The
Crimes of Grindelwald
Don’t Count Out:
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could
Talk
First Man
Colette
The Ballad of Buster
Scruggs
BEST EDITING:
 |
| Harry Belafonte in a brilliantly-edited sequence in BlacKkKlansman |
This
category tends to be populated with Best Picture nominees and technical
marvels. This means that any Best Picture nominees that are also technical
marvels are shoo-ins. In particular, Best Picture winners are almost always
nominated in this category, even more reliably than with Best Director. This
year, that bodes well for Black Panther,
The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman, and Roma,
all of which have standout editing while also being pegged as Academy
favorites. While the editing of A Star is
Born is not particularly flashy, it also has a strong shot here, as do Green Book and If Beale Street Could Talk. Technically, Vice also has a good shot here given how strong it has done all
awards season long but, honestly, the film editing here is really awful and has
been consistently pointed out as a weakness of the film even by those who liked
it more than I did. My worry is that, even though the editing is bad, there is
a LOT of editing and that might confuse people into nominating it, just like
when Interstellar got a sound mixing
nomination a few years ago, an injustice that I’m still not over and probably
never will be.
If
Bohemian Rhapsody performs well with
the Academy—which is still a major "if"—then it could also score a nomination
here. Lastly, there’s First Man,
which has fantastic editing particularly in the moon landing sequence, and
might be a dark horse here even if it’s not meriting Best Picture
consideration.
My Predictions:
Black Panther
The Favourite
BlacKkKlansman
Roma
A Star is Born
Don’t Count Out:
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could
Talk
Bohemian Rhapsody
Vice (ugh)
BEST MAKEUP &
HAIRSTYLING:
 |
| Tilda Swinton in Suspiria, Margot Robbie in Mary Queen of Scots, and Eva Melander in Border |
The
last remaining Oscars category to only have three nominees instead of five, this
is one of the category’s most competitive lineups in years, and any of the 7
shortlisted films have a chance at a nomination. Often the nominees can be
sorted into three categories: old age makeup, fantasy makeup, and transforming
an actor into a historical figure.
For
old age makeup, the only contender on the shortlist this year is Suspiria. If Grand Budapest Hotel got a Makeup & Hairstyling nomination for
aging Tilda Swinton, there’s no reason Suspiria
shouldn’t get one for turning Swinton into an old man. The two fantasy
contenders are Black Panther and Border. The Swedish film Border might be the most obscure title
on the shortlist, but the makeup is pretty astonishing, and Swedish films
actually have a really good track record in this category, earning nominations
in two of the past three years. The makeup & hairstyling in Black Panther is a lot subtler (read: no
big prosthetics that render an actor unrecognizable), but it’s still very
distinct and a major part of the film’s striking aesthetic. And given what a
major presence Black Panther is bound
to be on nomination day, that gives it a leg up despite its lack of major
disguising prosthetics.
There
are three films on the shortlist that transformed an actor into another
recognizable figure: Vice, Stan &
Ollie, and Bohemian Rhapsody. Vice is the closest to a lock in this
category. Not only is it the most awards-y film on the shortlist after Black Panther, so much of the buzz
around the film surrounds Christian Bale’s transformation that to not nominate
it would feel like a major snub. The prosthetics in Stan & Ollie that turned John C. Reilly into Oliver Hardy are
just as strong as those in Vice, but
I think that in the battle of the fake jowls, the momentum is on Vice’s side. Then there’s Bohemian Rhapsody, and Rami Malek’s fake
Freddie Mercury teeth. Like with Vice,
much of the discussion surrounding Bohemian
Rhapsody has revolved around the makeup which certainly helps the film’s
chances. They’re an easily recognizable prosthetic piece that voters
not-well-versed in makeup can still appreciate. Plus the period hairstyles
might give it an edge. In a less competitive year, it would be a lock, but with
so many strong options, it’ll be a question of whether the teeth will truly be
enough.
The
last shortlisted film is Mary Queen of
Scots, which covers Margot Robbie in both boils and striking regal punk
makeup. It’s a weird makeup design, one that is certainly commendable, but also
one of the hardest ones to define. It’s certainly strong makeup &
hairstyling, and perhaps it being so different from the other shortlisted films
will help it, but it strikes me as the least likely film to advance of the
shorlist.
My Predictions:
Vice
Border
Black Panther
Don’t Count Out:
Suspiria
Bohemian Rhapsody
Stan & Ollie
Mary Queen of Scots
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
 |
| First Man, Avengers; Infinity War, and Christopher Robin |
This
is actually a really difficult year to predict. In the past few years, several
films have clearly risen above the pack, but this year the shortlist is a
strange hodgepodge of films that are going to be tough to predict.
If
you had asked me just a few days ago, I would have said the best bets for a
nomination are Black Panther, First Man, and Mary Poppins Returns. All three are effects-heavy films which also
have critical acclaim and are contenders in other categories, which always
helps a film in this category. But then all three missed out on gaining a
nomination in the main category at the VES Awards—the most reliable predictor
for this award. First Man at least
picked up a nomination in the Supporting Visual Effects category, but Black Panther and Mary Poppins Returns were completely shut out.
Instead, the VES nominated Avengers: Infinity War, Christopher Robin,
Ready Player One, Solo: A Star Wars Story, and Welcome to Marwen, all of which are also on the Oscars shortlist.
The only two remaining films on the Oscars shortlist which didn’t get VES
recognition are Ant-Man and the Wasp
and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom,
which probably can be considered longshots at this point.
This means Marvel is really competing
against itself. Black Panther is the
most acclaimed film on the shortlist, but its visual effects were actually
pointed out as a weak point of the film, which might mean that the Marvel
campaign is pushing for Infinity War
here. I could see both getting a nomination, but Infinity War is actually more likely. Of the VES nominees, I was
most surprised by the inclusion of Ready
Player One and Welcome to Marwen.
Ready Player One is jumbled and muddy
in its visual effects, while Welcome to
Marwen’s savage reviews don’t exactly help it here even if the effects are
strong. I have to give a bit of an edge to Solo
to get a nomination just because the Star Wars franchise has such a good track
record in this category. But Christopher
Robin is a real wild card. The effects are really strong, but also really
charming and cute as opposed to “badass” like the rest of its competition. It’s
the most difficult to compare to the other shortlisted films, which might gain
it a few fans amongst the voters.
My Predictions:
Avengers: Infinity War
First Man
Black Panther
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Mary Poppins Returns
Don’t Count Out:
Christopher Robin
Welcome to Marwen
Ready Player One
Jurassic World: Fallen
Kingdom
Ant-Man and the Wasp
BEST SOUND EDITING:
 |
| First Man |
This
is a category that tends to reward a lot of action films. This is primarily
because action films rely on complicated sound editing in a major way that is
impressive, but also is easy to recognize for a nominating committee that
doesn’t always understand the nuances of this sadly misunderstood category.
This bodes well for action films like Black
Panther, Avengers: Infinity War, and Mission
Impossible: Fallout. Similarly, movies that may not qualify as action
movies but have intense technical sequences do well, such as First Man or 22 July. Any movie that puts sound at the forefront also do well
here. This includes musicals such as A
Star is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Mary
Poppins Returns, and the unique A
Quiet Place which really puts sound at the forefront in a way that few
other movies attempt.
My Predictions:
First Man
Black Panther
A Star is Born
A Quiet Place
Avengers: Infinity War
Don’t Count Out
Bohemian Rhapsody
Mary Poppins Returns
Mission Impossible:
Fallout
22 July
BEST SOUND MIXING:
 |
| A Quiet Place |
Oftentimes
when discussing the Oscars, people comment on how so few people know the
difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. But these are very different
skills, and although the two categories do often feature overlap, it’s rare
that all five nominees match up perfectly (although, to be fair, they did last
year). The nominees in this category tend to be feel more “artistic,” with
indie films more reliably getting nominations as opposed to the big
blockbusters. All of the films in the sound editing category are still in
consideration here, but the movie musicals have an advantage here while the
action films have the advantage in editing. That’s because, while both
categories are art forms which require a lot of nuance, mixing is about
creating balance through sound while editing is about generating movement
through sound. For this reason, this category also tends to be more inclusive
of prestige films. Movies like Roma, The
Favourite, and If Beale Street Could
Talk have a chance to be nominated here even though they’d all be surprises
in the sound editing category.
My Predictions:
First Man
A Quiet Place
A Star is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody
Mary Poppins Returns
Don’t Count Out:
Roma
Black Panther
Avengers: Infinity War
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could
Talk
Mission Impossible:
Fallout
22 July
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
 |
| Isle of Dogs |
Four
films seem to have emerged as the frontrunners in this category: BlacKkKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk,
First Man, and The Isle of Dogs. All are not only great scores, but all of the
scores are incredibly present in the film and have often been singled out as
being part of the films’ ultimate success. Any of them not getting a nomination
would be a rather clear snub. But this means that there’s still one place left,
and 11 shortlisted films waiting to take it. Of those films, a few stand out to
me as the more likely of the candidates. The scores for Black Panther and Mary
Poppins Returns have the most buzz, but might be overshadowed by those
films’ respective soundtracks. I could also see nominations coming to A Quiet Place and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs simply because their respective
composers (Marco Beltrani and Carter Burwell) are some of the most prolific and
respected in the industry. While any of the films on the shortlist could gain a
nomination, I really do think it’s down to the 9 I mentioned.
My Predictions:
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could
Talk
The Isle of Dogs
First Man
Black Panther
Don’t Count Out:
Mary Poppins Returns
The Ballad of Buster
Scruggs
A Quiet Place
Longshots:
Vice
Ready Player One
Fantastic Beasts: The
Crimes of Grindelwald
The Death of Stalin
Crazy Rich Asians
Annihilation
Avengers: Infinity War
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
 |
| Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga in A Star is Born |
If
anything is a lock for a win on Oscars night at this point, it’s that “Shallow”
from A Star is Born is going to win
Best Song. It has truly taken on a life outside of the film the way no other
song this year has, while also being a critical part of the film itself. It
also looks like it’ll be joined by “Trip A Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns and “All the Stars”
from Black Panther. After that,
though, the category becomes much harder to predict. This is a category that
tends to act independently from the rest of the ceremony, and one which doesn’t
really have predictable patterns. Some years it’s very straightforward, some
years it veers off into the obscure. Will the Academy be lured in by the star
power of Dolly Parton and nominate “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’? Will they be moved by the
strong messages in “Revelation” from Boy
Erased and “We Won’t Move” from The
Hate U Give, thus continuing the tradition of relegating “important issues”
movies to the Best Song category? Will they just say “fuck it” and nominate a
second song from Mary Poppins Returns?
Will they go weird and nominate “Suspirium” from Suspiria? Will they go even weirder and nominate “When a Cowboy
Trades His Spurs For Wings” from The
Ballad of Buster Scruggs? Honestly your guess is as good as mine as to
where they’ll land. I do think that Troye Sivan’s “Revelation” has a bit of an
edge—it’s a good song and it also is incorporated CONSTANTLY in the film so
that it feels like a really valuable presence. I also have hopes for
“Suspirium.” Thom Yorke may not have made the Original Score shortlist for his
work on Suspiria, but his star power
should help him here. And it’s a haunting and richly cinematic ballad that
would add some nice macabre to the lineup.
My Predictions:
“Shallow”—
A Star is Born
“Trip
A Little Light Fantastic”—Mary Poppins
Returns
“All
the Stars”—Black Panther
“Revelation”—Boy Erased
“Suspirium”—Suspiria
Don’t Count Out:
“Girl
in the Movies”—Dumplin’
“We
Won’t Move”—The Hate U Give
“The
Place Where Lost Things Go”—Mary Poppins
Returns
“I’ll
Fight”—RBG
“Keep
Reachin’”—Quincy
“When
a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings”—The
Ballad of Buster Scruggs
“Treasure”—Beautiful
Boy
“OYAHYTT”—Sorry to Bother You
“The
Big Unknown”—Widows
“A
Place Called Slaughter Race”—Ralph Breaks
the Internet
BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
 |
| Bao, Pepe Le Morse, and Late Afternoon |
The
shorts categories are always incredibly difficult to predict, but of the three
categories, the animated shorts are the ones we know the most about. Mostly
because the 10 films that made the shortlist are the most readily available to
view online of all the categories. I’ve been able to see all of them, and I
must say, it’s a particularly competitive year. The frontrunner, and the only
one that most people have probably seen, has to be Bao, the Pixar short that came before Incredibles 2 in theaters and received much acclaim. But it’s not
the only animated short in the running this year!
Pixar
and Disney have often been go-to presences in this category, but another large
studio entered the game this year. Dreamworks released its first two ever
original animated short films—Bilby
and Bird Karma—and both made the
shortlist. Having the major studio backing behind them can only help them, but
I think they’re among the weaker entries. Along with another shortlisted film
called Lost & Found, they are the
ones targeted at the youngest audience. This doesn’t make them bad, and that
certainly isn’t a detriment for this category in particular, but when many of
the other contenders this year are incredibly poignant, it does make these feel
rather lightweight in comparison. Of the three, the only one I realistically
see earning a nomination is Bilby,
which has the lush, polished animation of a big studio that I imagine many
voters will find impressive and familiar.
From
here, it’s much more of a crapshoot. I certainly hope that a nomination will
come for the French short Pepe Le Morse,
which was far and away my favorite of the shortlisted films. Weird and
wonderful, it’s a wholly original short that will win this award in a just
world. There are also two shortlisted films made by previous winners in this
category, which might give them a leg up. One is Animal Behaviour, a funny and strange film from the directors of
the winning short Bob’s Birthday. The
animation is great, but the animation is not as beautiful as the other
shortlisted films. If it gets a nomination it’ll be on the strength of its
clever script (about animals in a group therapy session) and that it’s nothing
like any of the other shortlisted films. The other shortlisted film with
previous Oscar pedigree is Age of Sail,
from the animator of Paperman. The
film is sort of in the opposite position as Animal
Behaviour: its script about an aging sailor isn’t anything all that
exciting, and the pacing of the film was oddly slow and stilted, but the
gorgeous VR animation is a technical marvel and the film could be a contender
on the strength of that alone.
The
remaining three films all tug at the heartstrings, which is typically a good
sign in this category. Late Afternoon is
an Irish film that explores dementia in a stunning and poetic way. Weekends is a thoroughly charming film
about a boy with divorced parents. They’re both poignant and sweet and
wonderful. I was also a fan of the last shortlisted film, One Small Step, about the relationship between an aspiring
astronaut and her dad. It made me cry, which is great, but it also felt the
most formulaic and by-the-book of the nominees. The animation is lovely but
doesn’t have the originality the way some of the other shortlisted films do.
It’s strong, but in a competitive year it doesn’t have the style to help it
stand out from the pack.
But
don’t just take my word for it! This is a category that relies on instinct more
than anything else, and with all of the shortlisted films available online,
there’s no excuse to not watch them and decide for yourself!
My Predictions:
Bao
Pepe Le Morse
Late Afternoon
Weekends
Age of Sail
Don’t Count Out:
Animal Behaviour
Bilby
One Small Step
Bird Karma
Lost & Found
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
 |
| Period. End of Sentence., My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes, and Zion |
Five
of the shortlisted documentaries are available to watch online. And already
it’s clear that this is a varied category, with the films differing wildly in
tone and style. Of the five I’ve been able to see, two of the more likely
nominees are End Game and Zion. Both distributed by Netflix (which
has a good track record in this category) they’re standard fare as far as
documentaries go. And while neither is a marvel the way previous short docs
like last year’s Heroin(e) was,
they’re solid choices for voters looking for something hard-hitting (End Game) or inspiring (Zion). The other three documentaries
available to view are far more atypical, taking a different approach to what we
think of as documentary. My Dead Dad’s
Porno Tapes, commissioned by the New York Times, is probably the weirdest
of the bunch, done completely in stop-motion animation that would feel twee and
cutesy if not for how personal and honest it is as a film. I feel like some
voters just might not get it, but the film has been raking in the accolades at
various festivals so it seems like it has a good shot. The British doc Black Sheep is an important film. It
tells the story of Cornelius Walker, a black man who was attacked by racist
bullies as a teenager. Part of the film is a recreation with actors, the other
part is interviews of Cornelius telling his story, filmed in an uncomfortably
tight close-up. It’s a powerful film, designed to take the viewer out of their
comfort zone, and while it’s effective I wonder if it plays with form too much
to merit consideration from the Academy which tends to stick to more
traditional narrative approaches. That also doesn’t bode well for A Night at the Garden, a film that
consists entirely of restored old footage.
Of
the films that are not available to watch online the one that really stands out
as a contender is Period. End of Sentence,
about the taboo topic of menstruation in India. I also feel like the subject
matters of Los Comandos and 63 Boycott are the sort of thing that
typically do well in this category. Of the other two shortlisted films, Women of the Gulag seems like a
documentary that relies heavily on testimony, which isn’t a bad thing but might
have difficulty standing out against more interesting narrative approaches.
Lastly, there’s Lifeboat, which seems
to have the most mixed critical response of the ten and is therefore the only
one I can comfortably think won’t receive a nomination.
My Predictions:
Period. End of Sentence.
End Game
My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes
Los Comandos
Zion
Don’t Count Out:
63 Boycott
Black Sheep
Women of the Gulag
A Night at the Garden
Lifeboat
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
 |
| Caroline, Fauve, and Detainment |
This
is the toughest of the shorts categories to predict. It’s not only incredibly difficult to find most of the live action shorts online, it’s just tough to
find information about them online. As such, a lot of my picks are just the
ones I’ve actually been able to glean something about. The favorite would have
to be Fauve, one of only two live
action shorts you can currently watch online. Fauve is a gripping drama about two unsupervised children that
turns horrifying. It’s really well-done and I would be shocked if it didn’t get
a nomination. The other short available to watch online, Caroline, also seems like it has a good shot, having been included
in the shorts program at several prestigious film festivals, including Cannes.
Following these two, there seems to be a lot of buzz around Skin, which looks like it has already
inspired a feature film from the same director, and Detainment, about a tragic true-life story where two ten-year-old
boys in the U.K. kidnapped and murdered another younger boy. The film’s
dialogue is taken directly from police interrogation transcripts and it looks
horrifying. Really, all four of these films seem to revolve around children
being in peril. So…really looking like a chipper year for the live action short
category. The last film I’m predicting will get a nomination is Wale, which picked up momentum after
being nominated at the BAFTAs. But really it’s anyone’s guess here and I’m
excited to see the nominees and judge them on their merits.
My Predictions:
Fauve
Caroline
Skin
Detainment
Wale
Don’t Count Out:
Chuchotage
Icare
Marguerite
May Day
Mother
Check back to see how well I did when the nominations are announced on January 22nd! And be sure to share your own predictions. Happy guessing!
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